Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
What advertisers can learn about winning from the 2012 Presidential Race (Celestin F-H) Will Feltus, SVP, National Media **Ken Goldstein, President, Kantar Media Campaign Media Analysis Group Moderated by: Jack Poor, VP Marketing Insights, Political Research & Analysis, TVB
Citation preview
What advertisers can learn about winning and losingfrom the 2012 Presidential campaign
Will FeltusSVP, National Media Research, Planning and Placement LLC
Ken GoldsteinPresident, Kantar Media Campaign Media Analysis Group
• What political campaigns do.
• How voters use media today. Some examples.
• Gaining separation: differences between the Obama and Romney campaigns on television.
• Don’t run your next campaign like your last one. What’s ahead.
Agenda
Creative & Account Mgt.
Media Buyer
Client
Client
Creative & Account Mgt.
Media Buyer
Client
Media Team
Old Model Modern Model
Creative Team
Beginning with Bush in 2000, a few large political campaigns began separating the creative and media
functions. But most still use the old model.
VOTER TARGETINGDefine & Redefine
MESSAGING & CREATIVESTRATEGY
COMMUNICATIONSSTRATEGY &
BUDGET
INTERNAL TRACKING
CREATIVE TESTING
MEDIA RESEARCH
DATA ANALYTICS & VOTER RESEARCH
WHAT CAMPAIGNS DO: A MODELCOMPETITIVE TRACKING
COMMUNICATIONS CHANNELS
Direct voter contact
News media
Paid advertising
Internet + social media
FUNDRAISING
DONOR DEVELOPMENT
VOTER TARGETINGDefine & Redefine
MESSAGING & CREATIVESTRATEGY
COMMUNICATIONSSTRATEGY &
BUDGET
INTERNAL TRACKINGo Tracking of news volume and
sentiment, website activity, social media traffic and trends, political elite buzz.
o Tracking polls.o Voter contact data and
analytics.
CREATIVE TESTINGo Focus and dial groups.o Field experiments.o Internet surveys & A/B testing.o Polling.
MEDIA RESEARCHo Nielsen, Arbitron,
Comscore.o Scarborough, MRI,
Simmons, Rentrak.o Field experiments.o Communication costs and
fundraising forecasts.
DATA ANALYTICS& VOTER RESEARCHo Historical voting data.o Demographic and
consumer behavior data.o Benchmark polling and
micro-targeting surveys.o Enhanced voter file and
database.
WHAT CAMPAIGNS DO: A MODEL COMPETITIVE TRACKINGo Forward-looking monitoring of
ad dollars ordered by opponents and third-party allies
o Daily advertising placements and creatives from Kantar/CMAG
o News volume and sentiment.
COMMUNICATIONS CHANNELS
Direct voter contact
News media
Paid advertising
Internet + social media
FUNDRAISING
DONOR DEVELOPMENTo Donor relationship management.o Major donor feedback.o New/repeat donors and dollars.
Consumption level
Brand preference
Voters are consumers of politics.
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
Voters are consumers of politics.
Consumption level
Brand preference
HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters
Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters
100
0
HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
Series3; 0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
00
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7070
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
High Turnout Republican Voters
U.S. Political Profile: Auto-mobile Ownership
Republicans drive more carsthan Democrats.
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7070
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
High Turnout Republican Voters
Series3; 0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0H
IGH
TU
RN
OU
TLO
W
TU
RN
OU
TV
ote
r Tu
rno
ut
Ind
ex
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters
High Turnout Democrat Voters
-80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 5060
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Series3; 0
000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sauvignon Blanc
0
0
Political Happy HourH
IGH
TU
RN
OU
TLO
W
TU
RN
OU
TV
ote
r Tu
rno
ut
Ind
ex
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 3040
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1
0
00
00
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Republicans drive more cars,while Democrats watch more television.
HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
-30 -20 -10 0 10 2080
90
100
110
120
130
Radio 1st Quintile (heaviest)
Radio 5th Quintile (lightest)
0
Television 5th Quintile (lightest)
Internet 1st Quintile (heaviest)
Internet 5th Quintile (lightest)
0
0
U.S. Overall Media Con-sumptionHeaviest and Lightest Users
GOP’s “GRP Gap”: Democrat Base voters are 24% more likely to be watching broadcast TV Monday-Friday
HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
-90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 9050
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Series3; 0
Discovery
00
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
00
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
U.S. Political Profile: Cable networks viewed past 7 days
HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
TU
RN
OU
TV
ote
r Tu
rno
ut
Ind
ex
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
-130 -110 -90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90 11060
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Series3; 23
20
18
16
15
11
11
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
ESPN2: Mike & Mike In Morn-ing
5
Comedy Central: Colbert Report
5
4
4
43
3
3
3
3
2
CNN: John King
2
2
2
2
CNN: Erin Burnett OutFront
1U.S. Political Profile: Cable Program Audiences
HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 5050
70
90
110
130
150
170
Series3; 15
14
13
12
Law & Order: SVU
10
10
NBC NFL Sun Night Football
9
8
8
8
14
7
6
7
7
66
6
55
55
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
32
2
ABC Sat Night Movie
2
2
2
Bachelorette
2
11
1
1
U.S. Political Profile: Broadcast Primetime AudiencesAverage Program Audience
HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 6060
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Series3; 0
0 0
0
0
NBA
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
WNBA
0
0
0
U.S. Political Profile: Sports Audiences
HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
TU
RN
OU
TV
ote
r Tu
rno
ut
Ind
ex
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 4070
80
90
100
110
120
Search
1
0
0
0
Watch video clips
Maps/GPS
0
News/weather/traffic
Search
0
Music
Social networking
Download apps
Music
Games (play/download)
0
Restaurant info
0
Daily deals (LivingSocial, etc.)
0
0
Watch video clipsBanking
0
Video games
0
Watch TV programs
0
Sports scores/updates
0
Shopping
0
0
0
0
0
Podcasts
0
0
0
U.S. Political Profile: Ways Inter-net/Mobile used past 30 daysBlue bubbles = Internet use; Green bubbles = Mobile use
VOTER TARGETINGDefine & Redefine
MESSAGING & CREATIVESTRATEGY
COMMUNICATIONSSTRATEGY & BUDGET
INTERNAL TRACKING
CREATIVE TESTING
MEDIA RESEARCH
DATA ANALYTICS & VOTER RESEARCH COMPETITIVE TRACKING
COMMUNICATIONS CHANNELS
Direct voter contact
News media
Paid advertising
Internet + social media
FUNDRAISING
DONOR DEVELOPMENT
Two things consumer campaigns can do that political campaigns cannot:1. Plan and implement over a multi-quarter time horizon. 2. Continually monitor ROI based on sales data.
Gaining SeparationMarket
Time
Show or show genre
Message
© 2010 Kantar Media
Presidential TV Advertising By TypeSelect Markets
DEM GOP
Cleveland $24,900,000 $25,600,000 Denver $21,800,000 $19,300,000 Las Vegas $13,200,000 $16,100,000 Orlando $22,200,000 $17,800,000 Richmond $7,900,000 $9,100,000
Obama bought more spots on expensive prime and sports, but still paid less per spot than Romney.
Competitive spending estimates from Polaris/NMRPP
Barack Obama 553,782 46.0% 261,767,528$ 36.8% 473$
Mitt Romney 250,876 20.9% 180,875,414$ 25.4% 721$
Obama + Ally 618,681 51% 297,403,284$ 42% 481$
Romney + Allies 584,466 49% 413,711,009$ 58% 708$
1,203,147 100% $711,114,293 100% 591$
Estimated Local Spot Spending
Local Broadcast TV
Average Cost per
Spot
As % of Total
Spending
Local Spots Aired
As % of Total Aired
Anti-Romney vs. Pro-Romney TV Ads
Category Share of Market Ad Time
Politics Share
Politics Auto Telecom Restaurants All Other Paid Promos Total
< 2% 0.5% 13.7% 9.5% 4.3% 54.4% 17.7% 100.0%
2-5% 3.2% 13.8% 8.1% 4.4% 53.2% 17.3% 100.0%
5-10% 7.1% 13.4% 7.9% 3.7% 50.2% 17.8% 100.0%
10-20% 13.7% 10.1% 7.7% 3.5% 47.0% 18.0% 100.0%
20-30% 24.0% 9.7% 6.5% 2.7% 39.1% 18.0% 100.0%
>30% 38.3% 6.0% 5.0% 2.6% 30.7% 17.4% 100.0%
32
How To Read: In weeks when political share of ad time is less than 2%, auto share of ad time average 13.7 %
Impact of Political on Other Advertising
Category Share Ratio Of Market Ad Time
Politics % Share
Auto Telecom Restaurants All Other Paid Promos
< 2% 13.7% 9.5% 4.3% 54.4% 17.7%
Ratio 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2-5%
5-10%
10-20%
20-30%
>30%
33
Impact of Political on Other Advertising
Category Share Ratio of Market Ad Time
Politics % Share
Auto Telecom Restaurants All Other Paid Promos
<2% 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2-5% 1.01 0.85 1.03 0.98 0.98
5-10% 0.98 0.82 0.87 0.92 1.01
10-20% 0.74 0.81 0.83 0.86 1.02
20-30% 0.71 0.69 0.64 0.72 1.02
>30% 0.44 0.53 0.60 0.56 0.98
34
Impact of Political on Other Advertising
