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1Introduction

D. Yogi GoswamiUniversity of South Florida

1.1 Energy Use by Sectors..........................................................1-3

1.2 Electrical Capacity Additions to 2030 ................................1-4Transportation

1.3 Present Status and Potential of Renewable Energy ...........1-5

1.4 Role of Energy Conservation...............................................1-7Forecast of Future Energy Mix

1.5 Energy Conversion Technologies.......................................1-10

Defining Terms................................................................................ 1-10

References ............................... ................................... ...................... 1-10

For Further Information................................................................ 1-11

Global energy consumption in the last half-century has increased very rapidly and is expected to continue

to grow over the next 50 years. However, we expect to see significant differences between the last 50 years

and the next. The past increase was stimulated by relatively cheap fossil fuels and increased rates of

industrialization in North America, Europe, and Japan, yet while energy consumption in these countries

continues to increase, additional factors have entered the equation making the picture for the next 50

years more complex. These additional complicating factors include the very rapid increase in energy

intensity of China and India (countries representing about a third of the worlds population); the

expected depletion of oil resources in the not-too-distant future; and, the global climate change. On the

positive side, the renewable energy (RE) technologies of wind, biofuels, solar thermal, and photovoltaics

(PV) are finally showing maturity and the ultimate promise of cost competitiveness.

Statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2004 show that the total

primary energy demand in the world increased from 5536 MTOE in 1971 to 10,345 MTOE in 2002,

representing an average annual increase of 2% (seeFigure 1.1and Table 1.1).

Of the total primary energy demand in 2002, the fossil fuels accounted for about 80% with oil, coal

and natural gas being 35.5, 23, and 21.2%, respectively. Biomass accounted for 11% of all the primaryenergy in the world, almost all of it being traditional biomass in the developing countries which is used

very inefficiently.

The last 10 years of data for energy consumption from British Petroleum (BP) Corp. also shows that

the average increase per year is 2%. However, it is important to note (fromTable 1.2)that the average

worldwide growth from 2001 to 2004 was 3.7% with the increase from 2003 to 2004 being 4.3%. The rate

of growth is rising mainly due to the very rapid growth in Asia Pacific which recorded an average increase

from 2001 to 2004 of 8.6%.

More specifically, China increased its primary energy consumption by 15% from 2003 to 2004.

Unconfirmed data show similar increases continuing in China, followed by increases in India. Fueled by

high increases in China and India, worldwide energy consumption may continue to increase at rates

between 3 and 5% for at least a few more years. However, such high rates of increase cannot continue for

too long. Various sources estimate that the worldwide average annual increase in energy consumption for

1-1

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the next 25 years will be 1.6%2.5% (IEA 2004; IAEA 2005). The Energy Information Agency (EIA), U.S.

Department of Energy projects an annual increase of 2% from now until 2030 (Figure 1.2).

Based on a 2% increase per year (average of the estimates from many sources), the primary energy

demand of 10,345 MTOE in 2002 will double by 2037 and triple by 2057. With such high-energy demand

expected 50 years from now, it is important to look at the available resources to fulfill the future demand,

especially for electricity and transportation.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1971 2002

Year

MTOE

Other renewables

Biomass and waste

Hydro

NuclearGas

Oil

Coal

FIGURE 1.1 World primary energy demand (MTOE). (Data from IEA,World Energy Outlook, International Energy

Agency, Paris, France, 2004.)

TABLE 1.1 World Total Energy Demand (MTOE)

Energy Source/Type 1971 2002 Change 19712002 (%)

Coal 1,407 2,389 1.7

Oil 2,413 3,676 1.4

Gas 892 2,190 2.9

Nuclear 29 892 11.6

Hydro 104 224 2.5

Biomass and waste 687 1,119 1.6

Other renewables 4 55 8.8

Total 5,536 10,345 2.0

Source: Data from IEA, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency, Paris, France, 2004.

TABLE 1.2 Primary Energy Consumption (MTOE)

Region 2001 2002 2003 2004 Average Increase/

Year (%)

2004 Change

Over 2003 (%)

North America including

U.S.A.

2,681.5 2,721.1 2,741.3 2,784.4 1.3 1.6

U.S.A. 2,256.3 2,289.1 2,298.7 2,331.6 1.1 1.4

South and Central

America

452 454.4 460.2 483.1 2.2 5

Europe and Euro-Asia 2,855.5 2,851.5 2,908 2,964 1.3 1.9

Middle East 413.2 438.7 454.2 481.9 5.3 6.1

Africa 280 287.2 300.1 312.1 3.7 4

Asia Pacific 2,497 2,734.9 2,937 3,198.8 8.6 8.9

World 9,179.3 9,487.9 9,800.8 10,224.4 3.7 4.3

This data does not include traditional biomass which was 2229 MTOE in 2002, according to IEA data.

Source: Data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006.

1-2 Energy Conversion


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1.1 Energy Use by Sectors

The major sectors using primary energy sources include electrical power, transportation, heating,

industrial and others, such as cooking. The IEA data show that the electricity demand almost tripled from

1971 to 2002. This is not unexpected as electricity is a very convenient form of energy to transport and

use. Although primary energy use in all sectors has increased, their relative shares except for

transportation and electricity have decreased (Figure 1.3). Figure 1.3 shows that the relative share of

primary energy for electricity production in the world increased from about 20% in 1971 to about 30% in

2002. This is because electricity is becoming the preferred form of energy for all applications.

Figure 1.4shows that coal is presently the largest source of electricity in the world. Consequently, the

power sector accounted for 40% of all emissions in 2002. Emissions could be reduced by increased use of

RE sources. All RE sources combined accounted for only 17.6% share of electricity production in the

world, with hydroelectric power providing almost 90% of it. All other RE sources provided only 1.7% of

Projections

283309

347 366421

510563

613665

722

1980

1985

1990

1995

2003

2010

2015

Quadrillion Btu

History800

600

400

200

0

2020

2025

2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),International Energy Annual 2003(May-July 2005), web sitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Anal-

ysis of Global Energy Markets (2006).

FIGURE 1.2 Historical and projected energy consumption in the world. (From EIA,Energy Information Outlook

2006, Energy Information Agency, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, 2006.)

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%1971

Power generation Other transformation TransportOtherIndustry

2002 2010 2030

FIGURE 1.3 Sectoral shares in world primary energy demand. (From IEA, World Energy Outlook, International

Energy Agency, Paris, France, 2004.)

Introduction 1-3

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electricity in the world. However, the RE technologies of wind power and solar energy have vastlyimproved in the last two decades and are becoming more cost effective. As these technologies mature and

become even more cost competitive in the future they may be in a position to replace major fractions of

fossil fuels for electricity generation. Therefore, substituting fossil fuels with RE for electricity generation

must be an important part of any strategy of reducing CO2emissions into the atmosphere and combating

global climate change.

1.2 Electrical Capacity Additions to 2030

Figure 1.5 shows the additional electrical capacity forecast by IEA for different regions in the world. The

overall increase in the electrical capacity is in general agreement with the estimates from InternationalAtomic Energy Agency (IAEA 2005) which project an average annual growth of about 2%2.5%

up to 2030. It is clear that of all countries, China will add the largest capacity with its projected electrical

needs accounting for about 30% of the world energy forecast. China and India combined will add about

40% of all the new capacity of the rest of the world. Therefore, what happens in these two countries will have

important consequences on theworldwide energy and environmental situation. If coal provides as much as

70%of Chinas electricity in 2030, as forecasted by IEA (IEA 2004), it will certainly increase worldwide CO2emissions which will further affect global climate.

Gas, 19.40%Oil, 6.90%

Coal, 40.10%

Nuclear, 15.80%

Combustiblerenewables and

waste, 1.00%

Other renewables,0.70%

Hydro, 15.90%Renewables,17.60%

FIGURE 1.4 World electricity production by fuel in 2003. (From IEA,Renewables Information 2005, International

Energy Agency, Paris, France, 2005.)

China

OECD North America

OECD Europe

Other Asia

Transition economies

OECD Pacific

Africa

India

Other Latin America

Brazil

Indonesia

0 100 200 300 400

GW

Under construction

Source: IEA analysis. Data for plants under construction and planning are from Platts (2003).

Planned Additions needed by 2030

500 600 700 800 900

Middle East

FIGURE 1.5 Electrical capacity requirements by region. (From IEA,World Energy Outlook, International Energy

Agency, Paris, France, 2004.)



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combined with hydroelectric resources provided more than 50% of all the primary energy in Africa,

29.2% in Latin America, and 32.7% in Asia (Table 1.4). However, biomass is used very inefficiently for

cooking in these countries. Such use has also resulted in significant health problems, especially

for women.

The total share of all renewables for electricity production in 2002 was about 17%, a vast majority(89%) of it being from hydroelectric power (Table 1.5).

Liquid biomass

1%

Renewable municipal

Waste

0.7%

Gas from biomass

0.7%

Solid

biomass/charcoal

77.5%

Combustible

renewablesand Waste

79.9%

Wind

0.4%

Hydro

16.2%

Solar, Tide

0.3%

Geothermal

3.1%

FIGURE 1.7 2003 Resource shares in world renewable energy supply. (Data from IEA, World Energy Outlook,

International Energy Agency, Paris, France, 2004.)

TABLE 1.3 2003 Fuel Shares in World Total Primary Energy Supply

Source Share (%)

Oil 34.4

Natural Gas 21.2

Coal 24.4Nuclear 6.5

Renewables 13.3

Source: Data from IEA,World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency,

Paris, France, 2004.

TABLE 1.4 Share of Renewable Energy in 2003 Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) on a Regional Basis

MTOE

Region TPES Renewables (%)

Africa 558.9 279.9 50.1

Latin America 463.9 135.5 29.2

Asia 1,224.4 400 32.7

India 553.4 218 39.4

China 1,425.9 243.4 17.1

Non-OECDa Europe 103.5 9.7 9.4

Former USSR 961.7 27.5 2.9

Middle East 445.7 3.2 0.7

OECD 5,394.7 304.7 5.6

U.S.A. 2,280.8 95.3 4.2World 10,578.7 1,403.7 13.3

aOrganization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Source: IEA,Renewables Information 2005, International Energy Agency, Paris, France, 2005.



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Table 1.6 summarizes the resource potential and the present costs and the potential future costs for

each renewable resource.

1.4 Role of Energy Conservation

Energy conservation can and must play an important role in future energy use and the consequent impact

on the environment.Figure 1.8andFigure 1.9give us an idea of the potential of the possible energy

efficiency improvements. Figure 1.9shows that percapita energy consumption variesby as much as a factor

TABLE 1.5 Electricity from Renewable Energy in 2002

2002

Energy Source TWh %

Hydropower 2610 89Biomass 207 7

Wind 52 2

Geothermal 57 2

Solar 1 0

Tide/wave 1 2

Total 2927 100

Source: Data from IEA, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency, Paris,

France, 2004.

TABLE 1.6 Potential and Status of Renewable Energy Technologies

Technology Annual Potential Operating

Capacity 2005

Investment Costs

US$ per kW

Current Energy

Cost

Potential Future

Energy cost

Biomass Energy

Electricity 276446 EJ w44 GWe 5006000/kWe 312 /kWh 310 /kWh

Heat Total or 813 TW w225 GWth 1701000/kWth 16 /kWh 15 /kWh

Ethanol MSW w6 EJ w36 bln lit. 170350/kWth 2575 /lit(ge)a

610 $/GJ

Bo-Diesel w3.5 bln lit. 5001000/kWth 2585 /lit.(de)b

1015 $/GJ

Wind Power 55 TW Theo. 59 GW 8501700 48 /kWh 38 /kWh

2 TW Practical

Solar Energy O100 TW

Photovoltaics 5.6 GW 500010000 25160 /kWh 525 /kWh

Thermal Power 0.4 GW 25006000 1234 /kWh 420 /kWhHeat 3001700 225 /kWh 210 /kWh

Geothermal

Electricity 600,000 EJ useful

resource base

9 GW 8003000 210 /kWh 18 /kWh

Heat 5,000 EJ

economical in

4050 years

11 GWth 2002000 0.55 /kWh 0.55 /kWh

Ocean Energy

Tidal 2.5 TW 0.3 GW 17002500 815 /kWh 815 /kWh

Wave 2.0 TW 20005000 1030 /kWh 510 /kWh

OTEC 228 TW 800020000 1540 /kWh 720 /kWh

Hydroelectric

Large 1.63 TW Theo. 690 GW 10003500 210 /kWh 210 /kWh

Small 0.92 TW Econ. 25 GW 7008000 212 /kWh 210 /kWh

a ge, gasoline equivalent liter.b de, diesel equivalent liter.

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of three between the U.S.A. and some European countries with almost the same level of human

development index. Even taking just the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

(OECD) European countries combined, the per capita energy consumption in the U.S.A. is twice as much.

It is fair to assume that the per capita energy of the U.S.A could be reduced to the level of OECD Europe of

4.2 kW by a combination of energy efficiency improvements and changes in the transportation

infrastructure. This is significant because the U.S.A. uses about 25% of the energy of the whole world.

IcelandUnited States

Finland

Singapore

BelgiumFrance

Italy

Slovak Republic

Russia

Ukraine

Hungary

Argentina

Brazil

Gabon

Zimbabwe

Nigeria

Mozambique

00.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6HDI

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Per capita energy consumption (kgoe/capita)

5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000

FIGURE 1.8 Relationship between human development index and per capita energy use, 19992000. (From UNDP,

World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability, 2004.)

Notes: Asia excludes Middle East, China, andOECD countries; Middle East and North Africacomprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq,Israel,Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon, Libya, Morocco,Oman,Qatar,Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia,United Arab Emirates adn Yemen; Lat inAmerica and Caribbean excludes Mexico;OECD Pacific comprises Australia, JapanKorea, and New Zealand; Former USSRcomprises Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus,Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan,Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Albania, Bosniaand Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus,Gibraltar, Macedonia, Malta, Romania, andSlovenia; OECD North America includes

Mexico.

Asia

China

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Latin America and Caribbean

Former USSR

Non-OECD Europe

OECD Europe

OECD Pacific

OECD North America

0

25

38

68

25

46

133

69

142

180

281

50 100 150 200 250 300Gigajoules per capita

FIGURE 1.9 Per capita energy use by region (commercial and non-commercial) 2000. (From UNDP,World Energy

Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability, 2004.)



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The present per capita energy consumption in the U.S.A is 284 GJ which is equivalent to about 9 kW

per person while the average for the whole world is 2 kW. The Board of Swiss Federal Institutes of

Technology has developed a vision of a 2 kW per capita society by the middle of the century (UNDP 2004).

The vision is technically feasible. However, to achieve this vision will require a combination of increased

R&D on energy efficiency and policies that encourage conservation and use of high-efficiency systems. Itwill also require some structural changes in the transportation systems. According to the 2004, World

Energy Assessment by UNDP, a reduction of 25%35% in primary energy in the industrialized countries is

achievable cost effectively in the next 20 years, without sacrificing the level of energy services. The report

also concluded that similar reductions of up to 40% are cost effectively achievable in the transitional

economies and more than 45% in developing economies. As a combined result of efficiency improvements

and structural changes, such as increased recycling, substitution of energy intensive materials, etc., energy

intensity could decline at a rate of 2.5% per year over the next 20 years (UNDP 2004).

1.4.1 Forecast of Future Energy Mix

Since oil comprises the largest share of world energy consumption and may remain so for a while, itsdepletion will cause a major disruption unless other resources can fill the gap. Natural gas and coal

production may be increased to fill the gap, with the natural gas supply increasing more rapidly than coal.

However, that will hasten the time when natural gas production peaks. Additionally, any increase in coal

consumption will worsen the global climate change situation. Although research is going on in CO2sequestration, it is doubtful that there will be any large-scale application of this technology anytime in the

next 2030 years.

Presently, there is a resurgence of interest in nuclear power; however, it is doubtful that it alone will be

able to fill the gap. Forecasts from IAEA show that nuclear power around the world will grow at a rate of

0.5%2.2% over the next 25 years (IAEA 2005). This estimate is in the same range as that of IEA.

Based on this information, it seems logical that the RE technologies of solar, wind, and biomass willnot only be essential but also hopefully be able to provide the additional resources to fill the gap and

provide a clean and sustainable energy future. Wind and Photovoltaic Power are growing at rates of over

30%35% per year for the last few years, keeping in mind that this growth rate is based on very small

existing capacities for these sources. There are many differing views on the future energy mix. The IEA

estimates (Figure 1.10) that the present mix will continue until 2030 (IEA 2004).

01970

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Other

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

MTOE

FIGURE 1.10 (See color insert following page 19-52.)World primary energy demand by fuel types. (According to

IEA,World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency, Paris, France, 2004.)

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On the other hand, the German Advisory Council on global change (WBGU) estimates that as much

as 50% of the worlds primary energy in 2050 will come from RE, (Figure 1.11). However to achieve that

level of RE use by 2050 and beyond will require worldwide effort on the scale of a global Apollo Project.

1.5 Energy Conversion Technologies

It is clear that in order to meet the ever growing energy needs of the world, we will need to use all ofthe available resources including fossil fuels, nuclear and RE sources for the next 2040 years. However, we

will need to convert these energy resources more efficiently. It is also clear that renewable resources will

have to continue to increase their share of the total energy consumption. There are many new develop-

ments in the conversion technologies for solar, wind, biomass, and other RE resources. In addition,

there are newer and improved technologies for the conversion of fossil fuel and nuclear resources. This

Handbook provides a wealth of information about the latest technologies for the direct and indirect

conversion of energy resources into other forms such as thermal, mechanical, and electrical energy.

Defining Terms

MTOE: Mega tons of oil equivalent; 1 MTOE Z 4:

1868!104

TJTerra JoulesZ 3:968!1013 BTU

GTOE: Giga tons of oil equivalent and 1 GTOE Z 1000 MTOE

Quadrilion Btu: 1015 British thermal units or Btu;

also known asQuad; 1 Btu Z 1055 J

References

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006.

EIA 2006. International Energy Outlook 2006. Energy Information Agency, U.S. Department of Energy,

Washington, DC. Website:http://eia.doe.gov

Hammererschlag, R. and Mazza, P. 2005. Questioning hydrogen. Energy Policy, 33, 20392043.

IAEA. 2005. Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates to 2030. Reference data Series No. 1, July

2005.

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

Primaryenergyuse(E

J/a)

400

200

0

2010 2020 2030 20402000 2050

Year

Oil

GasCoal

Nuclear powerHydroelctricity

Blomass(traditional)

Blomass(advanced)

Wind

Solar power(photovoltaicsand solar thermalgeneration)

Solar thermal(heat only)

Otherrenewables

Geothermal

FIGURE 1.11 The global energy mix for year 2050. (According to WBGU, World in TransitionTowards

Sustainable Energy Systems, German Advisory Council on Global Change, Berlin, 2003.)


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IEA 2004.World Energy Outlook. International Energy Agency, Paris, France.

IEA 2005.Renewables Information 2005. International Energy Agency, Paris, France.

Kreith, F. and West, R. E. 2004. Fallacies of a hydrogen economy. JERT, 126, 249257.

UNDP. 2004. World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability. United Nations

Development Program, New York, NY.

Veziroglu, T. N. and Barbir, F. 1992. Hydrogen: The wonder fuel. International Journal of Hydrogen

Energy, 17(6), 391404.

WBGU 2003. World in TransitionTowards Sustainable Energy Systems. German Advisory Council

on Global Change, Berlin. Report available athttp://www.wbgu.de

West, R. E. and Kreith, F. 2006. A Vision for a Secure Transportation System without Hydrogen. ASME

Journal of Energy Resources Technologies, 128, 236243.

For Further Information

Historical energy consumption data are published annually by the Energy Information Agency (EIA),

U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, International Energy Agency (IEA), Paris, and BP

Corp. EIA and IEA also publish forecasts of future energy consumption and energy resources.

However, their projections for individual fuels differ from other projections available in the

literature.

Introduction 1-11

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