4/28/2015GStone/MATC Geological Society of America Joint Annual Meeting/October 7, 2008/Houston INTELLECTUAL ATROPHY THEORY APPLIED TO THE GLOBAL WARMING

04/18/2304/18/23 GStone/MATCGStone/MATC

Geological Society of AmericaGeological Society of AmericaJoint Annual Meeting/October 7, 2008/HoustonJoint Annual Meeting/October 7, 2008/Houston

INTELLECTUAL ATROPHY THEORY INTELLECTUAL ATROPHY THEORY APPLIED TO THE GLOBAL WARMING APPLIED TO THE GLOBAL WARMING

PSEUDOCONTROVERSY: A CASE STUDY PSEUDOCONTROVERSY: A CASE STUDY OF SCIENTIFIC STAGNATIONOF SCIENTIFIC STAGNATION

presented by presented by

George T. StoneGeorge T. StoneMilwaukee Area Technical CollegeMilwaukee Area Technical College


““The greatest tradition is The greatest tradition is changechange.”.”

--Frank Lloyd Wright


““The very essence of science The very essence of science is is changechange.”.”


ScienceScience

“Science is best defined as a careful, disciplined, logical search for knowledge about any and all aspects of the universe,

obtained by examination of the best available evidence and always subject to always subject to

correction and improvement upon correction and improvement upon discovery of better evidencediscovery of better evidence.”

-- James RandiFounder of the James Randi Educational Foundation

Responsible skeptic v. ostensible skepticResponsible skeptic v. ostensible skeptic

As predators keep prey alert and adaptable, so skeptics keep scientists honest. Skeptics play an essential role in the process of science. Responsible skeptics, that is.

A responsible skeptic plays by the rules of science, ever striving for objectivity and rigor.

Alas, the ostensible skeptic interprets these rules loosely and may deem a foul ball fair, straying into the field of dreams and pseudoscience.



AtrophyAtrophy(Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary)(Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary)

Etymology

Late Latin atrophiaatrophia

from Greek atrophosatrophos: ill fed

from aa- + trepheintrephein: to nourish


Intellectual atrophyIntellectual atrophy(W. T. Wu/Nanjing University letters, 1936)(W. T. Wu/Nanjing University letters, 1936)

Intellectual atrophy describes an immutable and closed mindset which denies itself the nourishment of new knowledge in order to preserve a revered or cherished paradigm.


Conceptions of an orderly worldConceptions of an orderly world

“Ideas without precedent are generally looked upon with disfavor and men are shocked if their conceptions of an orderly world are challenged.”

-- J. Harlen Bretz


Scientific stagnationScientific stagnation

Scientific stagnation develops when the nourishing oxygen of

discovery in an open intellectual system is excluded, resulting in

conceptual stasis.


Confirmation biasConfirmation bias(from Wikipedia/the free encyclopedia)(from Wikipedia/the free encyclopedia)

Confirmation bias (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency to search for or interpret

information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions and avoids information and

interpretations which contradict prior beliefs.

Confirmation bias is mother’s milk to ostensible skeptics and is symptomatic of

scientific stagnation.

History of scienceHistory of science

The history of science is replete with examples of scientific stagnation

when new evidence and new ideas threatened to perturb and oxygenate the comfortable quietude of long-held

concepts.



Perturbers of scientific stagnationPerturbers of scientific stagnation

James HansenF. Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina

Harry HessGuy CallendarJ. Harlan BretzAlfred WegenerAlbert Einstein

Svante ArrheniusCharles DarwinLouis AgassizJames HuttonGalileo Galilei


History of global-warming scienceHistory of global-warming science1827: Joseph Fourier explains “greenhouse

effect”

1862-3: John Tyndall publishes experimental data documenting infrared absorption by H2O and CO2

1895: Svante Arrhenius calculates that doubling C02 in the atmosphere would raise Earth’s surface temperature 5 to 6oC

1938: Guy Callendar concluded that CO2 from the combustion of fossil fuels is changing Earth’s climate

1988: James Hansen testifies before Congress; presents GISS projections of global warming

The greenhouse effect and global warmingThe greenhouse effect and global warming

Now, the discoverers and documenters of the greenhouse effect and global warming clearly perturbed the resource-friendly paradigm of planetary immunity to human activity.

And ostensible skeptics and true believers charged onto the playing field.


Example of non-scienceExample of non-science

When the state of a system is a function of multiple independent variables, it is naïve at best and dishonest at worst to attribute cause and effect to only two variables while ignoring the relevant impact of a third (or more).

For example: concluding that the thermal properties of CO2 were inoperative simply because the dimming impact of aerosols temporarily masked the greenhouse effect.


Another example of non-scienceAnother example of non-science

If a well-defined, longer-term trend (say, multi-decadal) exhibits short-term fluctuations (say multi-annual), it would be unjustified – indeed, disingenuous – to conclude on the basis of a fluctuation that the long-term trend did not continue or was invalid.

These examples are not hypothetical; they represent two of many ploys that have been used in the guise of science by ostensible skeptics to create the perception of controversy. Such fallacies do not constitute science and contrive only pseudocontroversypseudocontroversy..


Science, credibility, and public policyScience, credibility, and public policy

The effectiveness of science in informing public policy derives from its credibility -- and also, unfortunately, from its political convenience.

We can control credibility; it derives from integrity. And integrity is the duty of science, as it is for all scholarship. As scientists, it is our duty to demand integrity and rigor in our research and in our education of students and the public at large.

Pseudoscience and rigorless disinformation should not be granted legitimacy-by-association in a forum of scientific research or on the stage of scholarship.


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Understanding global warmingUnderstanding global warming(James E. Hansen, Director/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)(James E. Hansen, Director/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

“Understanding the nature and causes of climate change is

essential to crafting solutions to our current crisis.”

-- Tipping Point: Perspective of a Climatologist (2008–2009 State of the Wild)


CO2 rises exceed worst-case scenariosCO2 rises exceed worst-case scenarios(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences/May 22, 2007)(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences/May 22, 2007)

The world's recent carbon dioxide emissions are growing more rapidly than even the worst-case climate scenario used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

C02 emissions from fossil fuels increasing at 3 times the rate of the 1990’s CDIAC & EIA data compared to IPCCCDIAC & EIA data compared to IPCC


COCO22 emissions accelerate in 2007 emissions accelerate in 2007(Global Carbon Project/September 25, 2008)(Global Carbon Project/September 25, 2008)

atmospheric CO2 increase (ppm/yrppm/yr))

1970-1979 1.31.31980-1989 1.61.61990-1999 1.51.5 2000-2007 2.02.0 2007 2.22.2


COCO22 emissions accelerate in 2007 emissions accelerate in 2007(Global Carbon Project/September 25, 2008)(Global Carbon Project/September 25, 2008)

the growth rate of emissions continued to accelerate, through 2007, bringing atmospheric CO2 to 383 ppm

anthropogenic CO2 emissions have been growing four times faster since 2000

"This new update of the carbon budget shows the This new update of the carbon budget shows the acceleration of both COacceleration of both CO22 emissions and atmospheric emissions and atmospheric accumulation are unprecedented and most astonishing accumulation are unprecedented and most astonishing during a decade of intense international developments during a decade of intense international developments to address climate changeto address climate change.”

-- Pep Canadell, Executive Director Global Carbon Project

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2007 land temperature warmest on record!2007 land temperature warmest on record!(National Climatic Data Center/January 15, 2008)(National Climatic Data Center/January 15, 2008)

For 2007:

the global land surface temperature ranked warmest on recordwarmest on record

the Northern hemisphere land and land + ocean surface temperature ranked second second warmest on recordwarmest on record

the combined global land + ocean surface temperature ranked fifthfifth warmest on recordwarmest on record

The greatest challenge of human historyThe greatest challenge of human history

We now face what may well be the most daunting challenge in human history: anthropogenic greenhouse warming.

The magnitude and immediacy of this challenge is staggering and not yet fully grasped by many.



““We have a very brief window of opportunityWe have a very brief window of opportunity”” (James E. Hansen, Director/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)(James E. Hansen, Director/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

“We have a very brief window of opportunity to deal with climate change . . . no longer than a decade at the most.“

If the world continues with "business as usual," temperatures will rise by 2 to 3o Celsius (3.6 to 7.2o F) and "we will be producing a "we will be producing a different planet"different planet"

Einstein’s wisdomEinstein’s wisdom(Sandra Postel/October 5, 2008)

“You can’t solve a problem with the same mindset that created the problem.”

-- Albert Einstein


A call to duty!A call to duty!

As geoscientists -- with expertise in climate change and energy resources -- it is our professional duty to demonstrate leadership in preparing policy makers and the public to deal with the greatest the greatest challenge of human historychallenge of human history!


We can do it!

Si se puede!Si se puede!



(AP photo courtesy of Dan Crosbie/Canadian Ice Service)(AP photo courtesy of Dan Crosbie/Canadian Ice Service)

Thanks for your attention!!Thanks for your attention!!

Documents

4/28/2015GStone/MATC Geological Society of America Joint Annual Meeting/October 7, 2008/Houston INTELLECTUAL ATROPHY THEORY APPLIED TO THE GLOBAL WARMING