43
SESSION 1 SESSION 1 4 Risk Informed SESSION 1 SESSION 1-4 Risk-Informed Regulatory Programs Donnie Harrison U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission [email protected] 301.415.2470 RISK RISK-INFORMED REGULATION SEMINAR INFORMED REGULATION SEMINAR Mexico City, Mexico Mexico City, Mexico August 27 August 27-31, 2012 31, 2012 1

4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

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Page 1: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

SE

SS

ION

1S

ES

SIO

N1

44

Ris

kIn

form

ed

SE

SS

ION

1S

ES

SIO

N 1

--44

Ris

k-In

form

edR

egul

ator

y Pr

ogra

ms

gy

g

Don

nie

Har

rison

U.S

. Nuc

lear

Reg

ulat

ory

Com

mis

sion

Don

nie.

Har

rison

@nr

c.go

v30

1.41

5.24

70

RIS

KR

ISK

--INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

Mex

ico

City

, Mex

ico

Mex

ico

City

, Mex

ico

Aug

ust 2

7A

ugus

t 27--

31, 2

012

31, 2

012

1

Page 2: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Pres

enta

tion

Out

line

Pres

enta

tion

Out

line

R

isk-

info

rmed

regu

lato

rypr

ogra

ms

in

Ris

kin

form

ed re

gula

tory

pro

gram

s in

se

lect

ed a

reas

of U

SN

RC

regu

lato

ry a

ctiv

ities

R

eact

or O

vers

ight

Pro

cess

(RO

P)

S

igni

fican

ce D

eter

min

atio

n P

roce

ss (S

DP

)g

()

In

cide

nt R

espo

nse

M

aint

enan

ce R

ule

M

itiga

ting

Sys

tem

s P

erfo

rman

ce In

dex

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

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MIN

AR

2

Page 3: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

USN

RC

Rea

ctor

Ove

rsig

htPr

oces

sU

SNR

C R

eact

or O

vers

ight

Pro

cess

P

rovi

des

Ris

k-in

form

ed F

ocus

in In

spec

tions

and

Saf

ety

MA

iii

Man

agem

ent

Act

iviti

es

A

pplie

s G

reat

er R

egul

ator

y A

ttent

ion

to F

acili

ties

with

P

erfo

rman

ceIs

sues

Whi

leM

aint

aini

nga

Bas

eLe

velo

fReg

ulat

ory

Per

form

ance

Issu

es W

hile

Mai

ntai

ning

a B

ase

Leve

l of R

egul

ator

y A

ttent

ion

on P

lant

s Th

at P

erfo

rm W

ell

A

llow

s G

reat

er U

se o

f O

bjec

tive

Mea

sure

s of

Pla

nt P

erfo

rman

ce

G

ives

Tim

ely

and

Und

erst

anda

ble

Ass

essm

ents

of P

lant

P

erfo

rman

ce to

Indu

stry

and

Pub

lic S

take

hold

ers

A

void

s U

nnec

essa

ry R

egul

ator

y B

urde

n

R

espo

nds

to V

iola

tions

in a

Pre

dict

able

and

Con

sist

ent M

anne

r

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

3

That

Ref

lect

s th

e S

afet

y S

igni

fican

ce o

f the

Vio

latio

ns

Page 4: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

REG

ULA

TOR

Y F

RA

MEW

OR

KP

rote

ctP

ublic

Hea

lthan

dS

afet

yN

RC

’s O

vera

llS

afet

y M

issi

onP

rote

ct P

ublic

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y as

a R

esul

t of C

ivili

an

Nuc

lear

Pow

er O

pera

tion

Stra

tegi

c P

erfo

rman

ceA

reas

Rea

ctor

Saf

ety

Rad

iatio

n S

afet

yS

afeg

uard

s

Initi

atin

gE

vent

sM

itiga

ting

Sys

tem

sB

arrie

rIn

tegr

ityE

mer

genc

yP

repa

redn

ess

Occ

upat

iona

lR

adia

tion

Saf

ety

Publ

icR

adia

tion

Saf

ety

Phy

sica

lP

rote

ctio

nS

afet

yS

afet

y

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

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AR

4

Page 5: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Use

ofR

isk

Info

rmat

ion

Use

of R

isk

Info

rmat

ion

R

OP

bas

ed o

n a

dual

sys

tem

-per

form

ance

indi

cato

rs (P

Is)

usin

gob

ject

ive

data

and

focu

sed

insp

ectio

nth

atco

mpl

emen

tsus

ing

obje

ctiv

e da

ta, a

nd fo

cuse

d in

spec

tion

that

com

plem

ents

th

e P

Is

U

sed

to id

entif

y P

Is, a

nd to

est

ablis

h th

resh

olds

for r

egul

ator

y y

,g

yac

tion

com

men

sura

te w

ith s

afet

y si

gnifi

canc

e

U

sed

to fo

cus

the

insp

ectio

n pr

ogra

m o

n th

ose

issu

es im

porta

nt

tosa

fety

to s

afet

y

S

igni

fican

ce D

eter

min

atio

n P

roce

ss (S

DP

) was

dev

elop

ed to

as

sess

the

safe

ty s

igni

fican

ce o

f ins

pect

ion

findi

ngs

to

yg

pg

dete

rmin

e th

e ap

prop

riate

regu

lato

ry re

spon

se

U

sed

for a

sses

sing

sig

nific

ance

of p

lant

eve

nts

and

degr

aded

co

nditi

ons

tohe

lpde

term

ine

appr

opria

teN

RC

resp

onse

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

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LATI

ON

SE

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AR

5

cond

ition

s to

hel

p de

term

ine

appr

opria

te N

RC

resp

onse

Page 6: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

REA

CTO

R O

VER

SIG

HT

PRO

CES

S

Cor

ners

tone

Cor

ners

tone

Bas

elin

e In

spec

tion

Perf

orm

ance

Indi

cato

rR

esul

ts

Sign

ifica

nce

Sign

ifica

nce

Res

ults

Sign

ifica

nce

Thre

shol

dSi

gnifi

canc

e Th

resh

old

Act

ion

Mat

rix

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

6R

egul

ator

y R

espo

nse

Page 7: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Rea

ctor

Saf

ety

Rad

iatio

nS

afet

yS

afeg

uard

s

Perf

orm

ance

Indi

cato

rs in

the

Seve

n C

orne

rsto

nes

Rea

ctor

Saf

ety

Rad

iatio

n S

afet

y

Initi

atin

gE

vent

sM

itiga

ting

Sys

tem

sB

arrie

rIn

tegr

ityE

mer

genc

yP

repa

redn

ess

Occ

upat

iona

lR

adia

tion

Safe

tyP

ublic

R

adia

tion

Safe

ty

Saf

egua

rds

Phy

sica

lP

rote

ctio

nE

vent

sS

yste

ms

Inte

grity

Pre

pare

dnes

sR

adia

tion

Saf

ety

Rad

iatio

n S

afet

yP

rote

ctio

n

Emer

genc

y A

CPo

wer

Syst

emR

eact

or C

oola

ntS

yste

mS

peci

ficD

rill/E

xerc

ise

Occ

upat

iona

lE

xpos

ure

Con

trol

RE

TS/O

DC

MR

adio

logi

cal

Pro

tect

ed A

rea

Unp

lann

ed

Scr

ams

Pow

er S

yste

mU

nava

ilabi

lity

Hig

h Pr

essu

reIn

ject

ion

Syst

emU

nava

ilabi

lity

Sys

tem

Spe

cific

Activ

ity

Rea

ctor

Coo

lant

Sys

tem

Le

akag

e

Perfo

rman

ce

ER

O D

rill

Par

ticip

atio

n

Exp

osur

e C

ontro

lEf

fect

iven

ess

Rad

iolo

gica

lEf

fluen

tsE

quip

men

t

Pers

onne

lSc

reen

ing

Pro

gram

Scra

ms

with

Loss

of N

orm

alH

eat R

emov

al

Hea

t Rem

oval

Syst

emU

nava

ilabi

lity

Res

idal

Hea

t

Ale

rt an

dN

otifi

catio

nS

yste

m

Pro

gram

FFD

/Per

sonn

elR

elia

bilit

yP

rogr

am

Unp

lann

edP

ower

Cha

nge

Res

idua

l Hea

tR

emov

al S

yste

mU

nava

ilabi

lity

Saf

ety

Sys

tem

Func

tiona

lFu

nctio

nal

Failu

res

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

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LATI

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AR

7

Page 8: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

TYPI

CA

L PE

RFO

RM

AN

CE

IND

ICA

TOR

8

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

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MIN

AR

Page 9: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

SIG

NIF

ICA

NC

E D

ETER

MIN

ATI

ON

PR

OC

ESS

(SD

P)PR

OC

ESS

(SD

P)

Cha

ract

eriz

e th

e si

gnifi

canc

e of

insp

ectio

n fin

ding

s in

sup

port

of

hR

Oi

hP

the

Rea

ctor

Ove

rsig

ht P

roce

ss

P

rovi

de s

take

hold

ers

with

an

obje

ctiv

e an

d co

mm

on fr

amew

ork

for

iti

tht

til

iifi

fiti

fidi

com

mun

icat

ing

the

pote

ntia

l sig

nific

ance

of i

nspe

ctio

n fin

ding

s

P

rovi

de a

bas

is fo

r ass

essm

ent a

nd e

nfor

cem

ent a

ctio

ns

asso

ciat

edw

ithin

spec

tion

findi

ngs

ther

eby

redu

cing

unce

rtain

tyas

soci

ated

with

insp

ectio

n fin

ding

s, th

ereb

y re

duci

ng u

ncer

tain

ty

P

rovi

de th

e st

aff w

ith p

lant

spe

cific

risk

info

rmat

ion

for u

se in

risk

-in

form

ing

the

insp

ectio

npr

ogra

min

form

ing

the

insp

ectio

n pr

ogra

m

SDP

isa

Res

ourc

eA

lloca

tion

Man

agem

entT

ool

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

9

SDP

is a

Res

ourc

e A

lloca

tion

Man

agem

ent T

ool

Page 10: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Sign

ifica

nce

Det

erm

inat

ion

Proc

ess

Ove

rvie

w

R

eact

or S

afet

y S

DP

s (m

ostly

risk

-info

rmed

)A

td

htd

fidi

A

t-pow

er a

nd s

hutd

own

findi

ngs

S

peci

al S

DP

s fo

r em

erge

ncy

prep

ared

ness

, fire

pro

tect

ion,

co

ntai

nmen

t int

egrit

y, li

cens

ed o

pera

tor r

equa

lific

atio

n,

stea

m g

ener

ator

tube

inte

grity

, and

pla

nt c

onfig

urat

ion

gg

yp

gco

ntro

l

Spe

nt fu

el p

ool/d

ry c

ask

stor

age

SD

P

R

diti

Sf

t(d

ti

iti

)

Rad

iatio

n S

afet

y (d

eter

min

istic

)

Occ

upat

iona

l Rad

iatio

n S

afet

y

Pub

lic R

adia

tion

Saf

ety

S

afeg

uard

s (r

isk-

info

rmed

)

Phy

sica

l Pro

tect

ion

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

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LATI

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AR

10

Page 11: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

LEV

EL O

F SI

GN

IFIC

AN

CE

ASS

OC

IATE

D W

ITH

PE

RFO

RM

AN

CE

IND

ICA

TOR

S A

ND

INSP

ECTI

ON

FI

ND

ING

SG

reen

(nor

mal

rang

e)(

g)

ve

ry lo

w ri

sk s

igni

fican

ce

base

line

insp

ectio

n

Whi

te(o

utsi

deno

rmal

rang

e)

ΔCD

F <

1E-6

Gre

enW

hite

(out

side

nor

mal

rang

e)

low

to m

oder

ate

risk

sign

ifica

nce

su

pple

men

tal i

nspe

ctio

n (IP

950

01)

Yll

1E-6

< Δ

CD

F <

1E-5 W

hite

Yello

w(s

igni

fican

t red

uctio

n in

saf

ety

mar

gin)

su

bsta

ntiv

e ris

k si

gnifi

canc

e

supp

lem

enta

l ins

pect

ion

(IP 9

5002

)1E

-5 <

ΔC

DF

< 1E

-4 Yello

w

Red

(sig

nific

antly

out

side

des

ign

basi

s)

high

risk

sig

nific

ance

su

pple

men

tal i

nspe

ctio

n (IP

950

03)

ΔCD

F >

1E-4

Red

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

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AR

11

Page 12: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Rea

ctor

Saf

ety

Sign

ifica

nce

Det

erm

inat

ion

Proc

ess

Th

ree

phas

e pr

oces

sP

h1

iG

Ph

2d/

Ph

3

Pha

se 1

scr

eens

issu

es to

Gre

en, P

hase

2, a

nd/o

r Pha

se 3

P

hase

2 e

valu

ates

issu

es u

sing

pla

nt-s

peci

fic ri

sk-in

form

ed

insp

ectio

n no

tebo

oks

that

are

typi

cally

con

serv

ativ

e, y

et

repr

esen

tativ

e of

lice

nsee

PR

A m

odel

sp

P

hase

3 is

a m

ore

deta

iled

revi

ew u

sing

inde

pend

ent r

isk

tool

s (e

.g.,

SP

AR

mod

els)

Ph

1d

2ll

fd

bi

tit

ffith

P

hase

s 1

and

2 ar

e ge

nera

lly p

erfo

rmed

by

insp

ectio

n st

aff,

with

as

sist

ance

of a

Sen

ior R

eact

or A

naly

st (S

RA

), w

here

nec

essa

ry

P

hase

3is

perfo

rmed

bya

Sen

iorR

eact

orA

naly

stor

othe

rris

k

Pha

se 3

is p

erfo

rmed

by

a S

enio

r Rea

ctor

Ana

lyst

or o

ther

risk

an

alys

t

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

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12

Page 13: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Phas

e 1

SDP

for A

t-Pow

er In

spec

tion

idi

Find

ings

P

rior t

o co

nduc

ting

a P

hase

1 S

cree

ning

, the

per

form

ance

de

ficie

ncy

mus

tbe

ofgr

eate

rtha

nm

inor

sign

ifica

nce

defic

ienc

y m

ust b

e of

gre

ater

than

min

or s

igni

fican

ce

Th

e P

hase

1 S

cree

ning

Wor

kshe

et c

onta

ins

deci

sion

logi

c to

de

term

ine

if th

e de

ficie

ncy

can

be c

hara

cter

ized

as

Gre

en

yw

ithou

t fur

ther

ana

lysi

s

D

efic

ienc

ies

gene

rally

scr

een

to G

reen

if in

itiat

ing

even

t fre

quen

cies

and

tota

lfun

ctio

nof

miti

gatin

gan

dco

ntai

nmen

tfre

quen

cies

and

tota

l fun

ctio

n of

miti

gatin

g an

d co

ntai

nmen

t sy

stem

s ar

e no

t los

t

S

ome

defic

ienc

ies

imm

edia

tely

scr

een

to G

reen

bas

ed o

n th

eir

ylo

w im

pact

to o

vera

ll pl

ant r

isk

(e.g

., ra

diol

ogic

al b

arrie

r sys

tem

s su

ch a

s bu

ildin

g ve

ntila

tion)

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

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Page 14: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Phas

e 2

SDP

for A

t-Pow

er In

spec

tion

idi

Find

ings

S

tep

1-S

elec

t Ini

tiatin

g E

vent

Sce

nario

sp

g

Ste

p 2

-Est

imat

e th

e In

itiat

ing

Eve

nt L

ikel

ihoo

d

Ste

p 3

–D

eter

min

e th

e R

emai

ning

Miti

gatio

n C

apab

ility

S

tep

4 -

Est

imat

e R

isk

Sig

nific

ance

of I

nspe

ctio

n Fi

ndin

gFi

ndin

g

Ste

p 5

–S

cree

n fo

r Ext

erna

l Eve

nt C

ontri

butio

n

Ste

p 6

–S

cree

n fo

r Lar

ge E

arly

Rel

ease

Fre

quen

cy

pg

yq

y(L

ER

F) s

igni

fican

ce

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

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Page 15: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Phas

e3

SDP

Phas

e 3

SDP

R

isk

Sign

ifica

nce

Estim

atio

n U

sing

Ris

k g

gB

asis

Tha

t Dep

arts

from

the

Phas

e 1

or 2

Pr

oces

s-If

nece

ssar

y,P

hase

3w

illre

fine

orm

odify

,with

If ne

cess

ary,

Pha

se 3

will

refin

e or

mod

ify, w

ith

suffi

cien

t jus

tific

atio

n, th

e ea

rlier

scr

eeni

ng re

sults

fro

m P

hase

s 1

and

2

-Pha

se 3

als

o ad

dres

ses

findi

ngs

that

can

not b

e ev

alua

ted

usin

g th

e P

hase

2 p

roce

ss (e

.g.,

exte

rnal

ev

ent c

ontri

buto

rs) )

-Pha

se 3

ana

lysi

s us

es a

ppro

pria

te P

RA

tech

niqu

es

and

rely

onth

eex

perti

seof

NR

Cris

kan

alys

ts

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

and

rely

on

the

expe

rtise

of N

RC

risk

ana

lyst

s

15

Page 16: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Phas

e3

SDP

Phas

e 3

SDP

Phas

e 3

anal

ysis

pac

kage

incl

udes

the

follo

win

g:P

h1

d2

l

Pha

se 1

and

2 re

sults

P

RA

tool

s us

ed fo

r the

Pha

se 3

ass

essm

ent

A

ffect

ed a

ccid

ent s

eque

nces

In

fluen

tiala

ssum

ptio

ns

Influ

entia

l ass

umpt

ions

S

ensi

tivity

of r

esul

ts to

eac

h as

sum

ptio

n

Con

tribu

tions

of g

reat

est u

ncer

tain

ty fa

ctor

s

Ris

k ef

fect

s of

Lar

ge E

arly

Rel

ease

Fre

quen

cy, i

nter

nal

flood

ing

and

exte

rnal

eve

nts

are

also

eva

luat

ed

Phas

e 3

anal

ysis

is d

ocum

ente

d in

a S

igni

fican

ce a

nd

Enfo

rcem

ent R

evie

w P

anel

(SER

P) p

acka

ge a

nd p

rese

nted

to

SER

P m

embe

rs fo

r a p

relim

inar

y de

cisi

on

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

16

Page 17: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

SER

PPr

oces

sSE

RP

Proc

ess

Prel

imin

ary

SER

P de

cisi

on p

rese

nted

to

yp

licen

see

in a

“C

hoic

e” le

tter

-Lic

ense

e ha

s ch

oice

to re

spon

d by

lette

r or

atte

nda

Reg

ulat

ory

Con

fere

nce

atte

nd a

Reg

ulat

ory

Con

fere

nce

-Lic

ense

e m

ay a

ccep

t pre

limin

ary

resu

lt

If pr

elim

inar

y re

sult

is c

hang

ed d

ue to

new

in

form

atio

n or

insi

ghts

, SER

P re

conv

enes

an

dde

term

ines

final

sign

ifica

nce

ofan

d de

term

ines

fina

l sig

nific

ance

of

findi

ng-f

inal

sig

nific

ance

lette

r sen

t to

licen

see

dib

ifi

did

lt

iifi

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

desc

ribin

g fin

ding

and

regu

lato

ry s

igni

fican

ce17

Page 18: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

SDP

Cha

lleng

esSD

P C

halle

nges

Ti

mel

ines

s go

al o

f < 9

0 da

ys –

use

of b

est a

vaila

ble

gy

info

rmat

ion

for d

ecis

ion-

mak

ing

Le

velo

fris

kkn

owle

dge

need

edfo

rris

kin

form

ed

Leve

l of r

isk

know

ledg

e ne

eded

for r

isk-

info

rmed

in

spec

tors

E

nhan

cem

ent o

f Pha

se 3

SD

P ri

sk a

naly

sis

tool

s an

d gu

idan

ce –

Ris

k A

sses

smen

t Sta

ndar

diza

tion

Pro

ject

(R

AS

P)

()

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

18

Page 19: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

ASS

ESSM

ENT

ASS

ESSM

ENT

P

erfo

rman

ce In

dica

tors

and

Insp

ectio

n Fi

ndin

gs A

re

pg

Com

bine

d fo

r an

Ove

rall

Ass

essm

ent o

f Pla

nt

Per

form

ance

.

A

ctio

n M

atrix

Is U

sed

to A

sses

s P

erfo

rman

ce a

nd

Det

erm

ine

Reg

ulat

ory

Act

ions

.

Q

uarte

rly, M

id-C

ycle

and

End

of C

ycle

Ass

essm

ents

A

re P

erfo

rmed

for E

ach

Lice

nsee

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

19

Page 20: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

AC

TIO

NM

ATR

IXC

ON

CEP

TA

CTI

ON

MA

TRIX

CO

NC

EPT

Lice

nsee

Res

pons

eR

egul

ator

yR

espo

nse

Deg

rade

dC

orne

rsto

neM

ultip

le/R

ep.

Deg

rade

dC

orne

rsto

ne

Una

ccep

tabl

ePe

rfor

man

ce

Ii

Sf

tS

iifi

Incr

easi

ng S

afet

y S

igni

fican

ce

Incr

easi

ng N

RC

Insp

ectio

n E

fforts

Incr

easi

ng N

RC

/Lic

ense

e M

anag

emen

t Inv

olve

men

t

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

20

Incr

easi

ng R

egul

ator

y A

ctio

ns

Page 21: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

RO

P R

efer

ence

sI

iM

lCh

Insp

ectio

n M

anua

l Cha

pter

s

IMC

305

, Ope

ratin

g R

eact

or A

sses

smen

t Pro

gram

IMC

307

, Rea

ctor

Ove

rsig

ht P

roce

ss S

elf-A

sses

smen

t Pro

gram

IMC

308

, RO

P B

asis

Doc

umen

t

IMC

350

, Ove

rsig

ht o

f Ope

ratin

g R

eact

or F

acili

ties

in a

Shu

tdow

n C

ondi

tion

with

Per

form

ance

Pro

blem

s

IMC

608

, Per

form

ance

Indi

cato

r Pro

gram

IMC

609

, Sig

nific

ance

Det

erm

inat

ion

Pro

cess

IMC

612

, Pow

er R

eact

or In

spec

tion

Rep

orts

IMC

124

5, Q

ualif

icat

ion

Pro

gram

for t

he O

ffice

of N

ucle

ar R

eact

or

Reg

ulat

ion

Pro

gram

s

IMC

251

5, L

ight

-Wat

er R

eact

or In

spec

tion

Pro

gram

--O

pera

tions

P

hase

Web

site

add

ress

-ht

tp://

ww

w.n

rc.g

ov/re

adin

g-rm

/doc

-co

llect

ions

/insp

man

ual/m

anua

lcha

pter

/inde

xht

ml

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

21

colle

ctio

ns/in

sp-m

anua

l/man

ual-c

hapt

er/in

dex.

htm

l

Page 22: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

U.S

. NR

C P

olic

yIn

cide

nt In

vest

igat

ions

E

nsur

e th

at s

igni

fican

t ope

ratio

nal e

vent

s ar

e in

vest

igat

ed

gp

gin

a ti

mel

y, o

bjec

tive,

sys

tem

atic

, and

tech

nica

lly s

ound

m

anne

r; fa

ctua

l inf

orm

atio

n is

doc

umen

ted

and

the

caus

e or

cau

ses

are

dete

rmin

ed

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

22

Page 23: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Siifi

Oi

lESi

gnifi

cant

Ope

ratio

nal E

vent

A

ny ra

diol

ogic

al, s

afeg

uard

s, o

r oth

er s

afet

y-re

late

d op

erat

iona

l eve

nt th

at p

oses

an

actu

al o

r a p

oten

tial

haza

rd to

pub

lic h

ealth

and

saf

ety,

pro

perty

, or t

he

envi

ronm

ent

E

xam

ples

incl

ude:

D

ecla

ratio

n of

a s

ite a

rea

emer

genc

yg

y

Exc

eede

d a

Saf

ety

Lim

it

Led

to a

sig

nific

ant (

i.e.,

5 tim

es re

gula

tory

lim

it)

radi

olog

ical

expo

sure

radi

olog

ical

exp

osur

e

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

23

Page 24: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Even

t/Con

ditio

n R

espo

nse

NR

C P

rogr

ams

E

vent

Res

pons

e/Fo

llow

up –

Man

agem

ent D

irect

ive

8.3

S

igni

fican

ce D

eter

min

atio

n P

roce

ss in

the

Rea

ctor

Ove

rsig

ht

gg

Pro

cess

A

ccid

ent S

eque

nce

Pre

curs

or (A

SP

) Pro

gram

q(

)g

O

pera

ting

Exp

erie

nce

Pro

gram

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

24

Page 25: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Even

t Res

pons

eM

anag

emen

t Dire

ctiv

e 8.

3

Q

uick

ly D

eter

min

e R

isk

Sig

nific

ance

of A

ctua

l Eve

nts

that

O

ccur

red

and

Pro

vide

a R

isk

Inpu

t for

App

ropr

iate

NR

C

Res

pons

eR

espo

nse

To

ols

Use

d

Sta

ndar

dize

d P

lant

Ana

lysi

s R

isk

(SP

AR

) Mod

els

Q

uant

itativ

e an

d Q

ualit

ativ

e R

isk

Insi

ghts

from

P

revi

ous

Stu

dies

(eg

Sta

tion

Bla

ckou

tA

TWS

etc

)P

revi

ous

Stu

dies

(e.g

., S

tatio

n B

lack

out,

ATW

S, e

tc.)

Li

cens

ee’s

(util

ity) P

lant

-Spe

cific

PR

A R

esul

ts, i

f A

vaila

ble

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

25

Page 26: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Even

t Res

pons

eM

anag

emen

t Dire

ctiv

e 8.

3 –

cont

.

Ris

k M

etric

s U

sed:

C

ondi

tiona

l Cor

e D

amag

e P

roba

bilit

y (C

CD

P fo

r ev

ents

, Inc

rem

enta

l CC

DP

(IC

CD

P) f

or c

ondi

tions

)

Con

ditio

nalL

arge

Ear

lyR

elea

seP

roba

bilit

y(C

LER

P

Con

ditio

nal L

arge

Ear

ly R

elea

se P

roba

bilit

y (C

LER

P

for e

vent

s, IC

LER

P fo

r con

ditio

ns),

if ne

cess

ary

R

isk

Ana

lyst

s fro

m N

RC

Hea

dqua

rters

and

the

Reg

iona

l O

ffice

Invo

lved

Coo

pera

tivel

y fo

r Con

sens

us (“

One

V

oice

” ) R

isk

Inpu

t)

p

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

26

Page 27: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Det

erm

inis

tic C

riter

ia fo

r Ev

ent/C

ondi

tion

Res

pons

e

Il

dl

tti

tht

dd

til

dd

i

Invo

lved

pla

nt o

pera

tions

that

exc

eede

d or

not

incl

uded

in

desi

gn b

ases

M

ajor

def

icie

ncy

in d

esig

n, c

onst

ruct

ion

or o

pera

tion

havi

ng

pote

ntia

l gen

eric

saf

ety

impl

icat

ions

S

igni

fican

t los

s of

fuel

inte

grity

, prim

ary

cool

ant p

ress

ure

boun

dary

, or p

rimar

y co

ntai

nmen

t bou

ndar

y

Lo

ss o

f saf

ety

func

tion

or m

ultip

le fa

ilure

s in

sys

tem

s to

m

itiga

te e

vent

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

27

Page 28: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Det

erm

inis

tic C

riter

ia fo

r Ev

ent/C

ondi

tion

Res

pons

e –

cont

.

Pib

ld

ii

liti

P

ossi

ble

adve

rse

gene

ric im

plic

atio

ns

S

igni

fican

t une

xpec

ted

syst

em in

tera

ctio

ns

R

epet

itive

failu

res/

even

ts in

volv

ing

safe

ty-r

elat

ed e

quip

men

t or

ope

ratio

ns d

efic

ienc

ies

p

C

once

rns

with

lice

nsee

ope

ratio

nal p

erfo

rman

ce

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

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ED

RE

GU

LATI

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MIN

AR

28

Page 29: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Gra

ded

Even

t Res

pons

e vs

.C

dii

lCb

bili

(CC

)C

ondi

tiona

l Cor

e D

amag

e Pr

obab

ility

(CC

DP)

1E-6

1E-5

1E-5

1E-4

1E

-41E

-3CC

DP>1

E3

CCDP

<1E-6

-1E

- 51E

-51E

-4

1E- 4

1E-3

-1E

1E1E

1E1E

1ECC

DP>1

ECC

DP<1

E1E

1E1E

1E1E

Noad

ditio

nal

No a

dditi

onal

re

activ

e in

spec

tion

Si

lIti

Spec

ial I

nspe

ctio

n

Augm

ente

d In

spec

tion

Team

Inci

dent

Inve

stig

atio

nTe

am

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

29

Inci

dent

Inve

stig

atio

n Te

am

Page 30: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Exam

ple:

Pla

nt X

Aut

omat

ic R

eact

or T

rip

S

umm

ary

A

rout

ine

test

of t

he a

ltern

ate

pow

er s

ourc

e fo

r the

Con

trol R

od D

rive

(CR

D)

Sys

tem

was

in p

rogr

ess

whe

n po

wer

to th

e C

RD

sys

tem

was

inte

rrup

ted

R

eact

or tr

ip a

nd A

C p

ower

tran

sfer

red

to th

e S

tart-

up s

ourc

e (s

witc

hyar

d)

Th

e M

ain

Ste

am H

eade

r pre

ssur

e co

ntro

l set

poin

t did

not

aut

omat

ical

ly in

crea

se

for p

ost-t

rip R

CS

tem

pera

ture

con

trol

ThR

CS

ld

dt

it

l53

6F(

ltt

i

The

RC

S c

oole

d do

wn

to a

ppro

xim

atel

y 53

6F (v

ersu

s a

norm

al p

ost-t

rip

tem

pera

ture

of a

ppro

xim

atel

y 55

5F),

redu

cing

RC

S p

ress

ure

to th

e ac

tuat

ion

setp

oint

for E

ngin

eere

d S

afeg

uard

s C

hann

els

1 an

d 2.

Thi

s st

arte

d th

e H

igh

Pre

ssur

e In

ject

ion

pum

ps in

EC

CS

mod

e, c

ause

d pa

rtial

con

tain

men

t iso

latio

n an

d in

itiat

ed s

tart-

up o

f bot

h P

lant

X H

ydro

Uni

ts (e

mer

genc

y po

wer

)

P

ress

uriz

er le

vel d

ecre

ased

off-

scal

e lo

w a

nd w

as re

cove

red

prio

r to

secu

ring

the

Hig

h P

ress

ure

Inje

ctio

n pu

mps

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

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MIN

AR

30

Page 31: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Exam

ple:

Pla

nt X

Aut

omat

ic R

eact

or T

rip(C

ontin

ued)

(Con

tinue

d)

Emer

genc

y R

espo

nse

(MD

82)

MD

8.3

-CC

DP

estim

ated

to b

e 3E

-5S

ilI

ti

ASP

-Rev

iew

of l

icen

see

repo

rt an

d in

spec

tion

findi

ng fo

r pr

ecur

sors

Res

pons

e (M

D 8

.2)

-Pla

nt’s

resp

onse

su

cces

sful

-No

need

for N

RC

in

cide

nt re

spon

se

tiR

tT

i

-Spe

cial

Insp

ectio

n

~ 90

day

s~

10da

ystim

eR

eact

or T

rip

INES

Rat

ing

-Lev

el 0

SDP

-To

dete

rmin

e th

e ris

k si

gnifi

canc

e of

the

licen

see

perfo

rman

ce d

efic

ienc

y, if

any

10

days

Ope

ratin

g Ex

perie

nce

-Iss

ue fo

r Res

olut

ion

-To

perfo

rm fo

llow

-up

for

sign

ifica

nce

and

gene

ric

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

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ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

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31

sign

ifica

nce

and

gene

ric

impl

icat

ions

, and

sub

sequ

ent

appl

icat

ions

Page 32: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

USN

RC

Mai

nten

ance

Rul

e(M

R)

USN

RC

Mai

nten

ance

Rul

e (M

R)

10

CFR

50.

65 is

sued

Jul

y, 1

991

“Req

uire

men

ts fo

r y,

qM

onito

ring

the

Effe

ctiv

enes

s of

Mai

nten

ance

at

Nuc

lear

Pow

er P

lant

s”

MR

ffti

Jl

1996

M

R e

ffect

ive

July

199

6

Est

ablis

hes

expe

ctat

ions

for b

alan

cing

stru

ctur

es,

syst

ems,

&co

mpo

nent

s(S

SC

s)un

avai

labi

lity

with

syst

ems,

& c

ompo

nent

s (S

SC

s) u

nava

ilabi

lity

with

S

SC

s re

liabi

lity

(Rul

e se

ctio

ns a

(1-3

))

Est

ablis

hes

expe

ctat

ions

for a

sses

sing

con

figur

atio

n i

kt

hi

itf

risk

man

agem

ent w

hen

rem

ovin

g eq

uipm

ent f

rom

se

rvic

e (R

ule

sect

ion

a(4)

)

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

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RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

32

Page 33: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Mai

nten

ance

Rul

eO

verv

iew

Mai

nten

ance

Rul

e O

verv

iew

U

tiliti

es im

plem

ente

d M

R s

ectio

ns a

(1 th

roug

h 4)

via

p

(g

)gu

idan

ce d

ocum

ents

:-

NU

MA

RC

93-

01-

NR

C R

egul

ator

y G

uide

1.1

60

PR

A n

ot s

peci

fical

ly re

quire

d by

MR

; how

ever

, ut

ilitie

sge

nera

llyus

edP

RA

with

dete

rmin

istic

crite

riaut

ilitie

s ge

nera

lly u

sed

PR

A w

ith d

eter

min

istic

crit

eria

to

sco

pe S

SC

s in

to th

e M

R p

rogr

am a

nd e

stab

lish

perfo

rman

ce c

riter

ia

M

R a

(4) r

egul

ator

y re

quire

men

t effe

ctiv

e as

of

Nov

embe

r 28,

200

0

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

33

Page 34: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Mai

nten

ance

Rul

ea(

4)M

aint

enan

ce R

ule

a(4)

Li

cens

ees

‘requ

ired’

to p

erfo

rm M

R a

(4) r

isk

qp

()

asse

ssm

ents

R

isk

thre

shol

dsan

dco

nseq

uent

iala

ctio

ns

Ris

k th

resh

olds

and

con

sequ

entia

l act

ions

es

tabl

ishe

d by

Sec

tion

11 o

f NU

MA

RC

93-

01,

Rev

isio

n 3

(als

o re

fer t

o N

RC

Reg

ulat

ory

Gui

de

118

2)1.

182)

C

urre

nt c

halle

nges

are

trea

tmen

t of e

xter

nal e

vent

g

initi

ator

s fo

r con

figur

atio

n ris

k m

anag

emen

t mod

els

(whi

ch a

re b

ased

on

licen

see

PR

As)

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

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LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

34

Page 35: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Mai

nten

ance

Rul

e a(

4)

Ri

kh

hld

fi

fi

Ris

k th

resh

olds

for e

quip

men

t out

of s

ervi

ce

ICD

PIL

ER

P

> 10

¯5-P

lant

con

figur

atio

n sh

ould

not

no

rmal

lybe

ente

red

volu

ntar

ily>

10¯6

norm

ally

be

ente

red

volu

ntar

ily

10¯6

-10

¯5-

Ass

ess

non-

quan

tifia

ble

fact

ors

10¯7

-10

¯6

-E

stab

lish

risk

man

agem

ent a

ctio

ns

<10

¯6N

orm

alw

ork

cont

rols

<10

¯7<

106

-N

orm

al w

ork

cont

rols

< 10

7

35

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

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MIN

AR

Page 36: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Wha

tisM

SPI?

Wha

t is M

SPI ?

A m

easu

re o

f the

dev

iatio

n of

pla

nt

til

bilit

dt

syst

em u

nava

ilabi

lity

and

com

pone

nt

unre

liabi

litie

s fro

m b

asel

ine

valu

es,

wei

ghte

d by

pla

nt-s

peci

fic ri

sk

impo

rtanc

e m

easu

res.

pota

ceea

sues

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

36

Page 37: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Rea

son

for

Cha

nge

Rea

son

for

Cha

nge

Pbl

ithtS

ft

St

P

robl

ems

with

cur

rent

Saf

ety

Sys

tem

U

nava

ilabi

lity

Per

form

ance

Indi

cato

r

B

alan

ces

need

for m

aint

enan

ce (a

vaila

bilit

y)

with

equ

ipm

ent p

erfo

rman

ce (r

elia

bilit

y)q

pp

(y)

E

limin

ates

cas

cadi

ng c

oolin

g w

ater

sys

tem

g

gy

prob

lem

s

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

37

Page 38: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Mor

e m

aint

enan

ce in

crea

ses

Una

vaila

bilit

y…

60

40

50

ity

30

availabili

10

20

Una

00

10

20

30

40

50

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

Ma

inte

na

nc

e

38

Page 39: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

...bu

t it d

ecre

ases

Unr

elia

bilit

y…

7080 506070

ty

304050

nreliabilit

102030

Un

010

010

2030

4050

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

Ma

inte

na

nc

e

39

Page 40: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

...an

d th

ere

is a

n op

timum

!

7080

ty

5060

nreliabilit

304050

bility + Un

102030

Unavailab

010

010

2030

4050

U

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

Ma

inte

na

nc

e

40

Page 41: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Attr

ibut

es o

f MS

PI

•R

isk-

info

rmed

, per

form

ance

-bas

ed.

•A

llow

s tra

de-o

ffs b

etw

een

unre

liabi

lity

and

unav

aila

bilit

yto

optim

ize

syst

empe

rform

ance

.un

avai

labi

lity

to o

ptim

ize

syst

em p

erfo

rman

ce.

•N

o pe

nalty

for o

n-lin

e pr

even

tive

mai

nten

ance

ho

urs

upto

pre

plan

ned

base

line

hour

s up

to p

re-p

lann

ed b

asel

ine.

•R

efle

cts

plan

t-spe

cific

des

ign

and

oper

atio

n.

•A

ddre

sses

issu

es s

uch

as tr

eatm

ent o

f fau

lt ex

posu

re ti

me

in S

afet

y S

yste

m U

nava

ilabi

lity

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

py

yy

Per

form

ance

Indi

cato

r.41

Page 42: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

Mon

itore

dSy

stem

sM

onito

red

Syst

ems

BW

Rs

PW

Rs

Hig

h P

ress

ure

Coo

lant

In

ject

ion/

Cor

e S

pray

H

igh

Pre

ssur

e S

afet

y In

ject

ion

RC

IC o

r Iso

latio

n C

onde

nser

A

uxilia

ry o

r Em

erge

ncy

Feed

wat

erR

esid

ualH

eatR

emov

alR

esid

ualH

eatR

emov

al(m

ayR

esid

ual H

eat R

emov

alR

esid

ual H

eat R

emov

al (m

ay

incl

ude

cont

ainm

ent s

pray

)E

mer

genc

y A

C p

ower

Em

erge

ncy

AC

pow

ere

gecy

Cpo

ee

gecy

Cpo

e

Coo

ling

Wat

er S

uppo

rt S

tC

oolin

g W

ater

Sup

port

St

Aug

ust 2

7-31

, 201

2 R

ISK

-INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

42

Sys

tem

s S

yste

ms

Page 43: 4 g 1 SESSION 1 SESSION Informed Pro y ulator Risk

The

End

Que

stio

ns&

Ans

wer

sQ

uest

ions

& A

nsw

ers…

..

RIS

KR

ISK

--INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

INFO

RM

ED

RE

GU

LATI

ON

SE

MIN

AR

Mex

ico

City

, Mex

ico

Mex

ico

City

, Mex

ico

Aug

ust 2

7A

ugus

t 27--

31, 2

012

31, 2

012

43