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2015 10-Year AssessmentPreliminary Needs

Stakeholder and Customer Presentation – February 16, 2015

Josh Kerr

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Purpose

• Assumption reminders

• Summarize preliminary changes to needs

• Solicit input on needs

• Public Policy Requirements reminders

• Next steps

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Preliminary Key Messages

• Load forecast growth slightly higher in early years, but

has a slightly lower long-term growth rate relative to 2013

Assessment.

• Generation assumption changes

• Impacts of implementing TPL-001-4

• Continue to participate in Regional Studies

• Result - some need date changes, new needs, and

eliminated needs

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Core Assessment Studies

2014 TYA 2015 TYA

Model Year(s) Studied Model Year(s) Studied

Summer Peak2015, 2019, 2024,

2029Summer Peak 2016, 2020, 2025

Shoulder 2019, 2024 Shoulder 2020, 2025

40% Minimum Load 2015, 2019 40% Minimum Load 2016, 2020

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• 90/10 2025 Summer Peak

• No bias cases

• Generator Retirement Study

Sensitivities being analyzed

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Generator Retirement Study

• Assumptions– At least 50 years old by 2030– Primarily Coal or Diesel– Exclude conversions to natural gas, or pollution controls– Roughly 1,700 MW retired (study assumption only)– 2025 Summer All-Project Peak model– Power will be made up with imports into ATC

• Sensitivity being considered– Generators in the MISO DPP cycle added to retirements– Roughly 1,500 MW of generation added (study assumption

only)

• Not proposing additional projects

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Gen. Retirement Continued

Retirements (study

assumptions only)Additions

Biron, Dafter, Detour,

Edgewater 3 & 4, Escanaba,

Gladstone,

Kraft, Lakefront 5 & 6,

Manistique, Melissa,

Munising, Nelson Dewey,

Newberry Village, Portage,

Presque Isle, Pulliam, Shiras2,

Thilmany,

Weston 1 & 2, White Pine

• J293

• J384

• J390

• J394

• J395

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Generation Dispatch Changes

• Studies without Pulliam 5,6 and Weston 1

• ATC Net Interchange Comparison to 2014 TYA– 2016 Peak: 16 MW reduction to exports– 2020 Peak: 140 MW reduction to imports– 2025 Peak: 140 MW reduction to imports

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Preliminary Need Changes

• Potential needs – P2-1

• Low voltage at Charter – P3-2

• Overload at City Limits – Long lead time

• Low voltage near Boscobel

• Potential needs eliminated– 1 Generation increase isn’t materializing – 1 Need eliminated by resurveying line– 15 potential need eliminations, continued low load growth

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• Following Attachment FF Processes

• Previously Identified Requirements – State Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Mandates– EPA Regulations– State Mandates and Goals for Energy Efficiency (EE) and Demand Side Management

(DSM) Programs– No New Requirements from the October 2014 Study Design review with stakeholders

• For the 2015 10-Year Assessment, assessing combined impacts using:– Expected Load Forecasts from LSEs– Generation Additions– Generation Retirements– Multiple Year Analysis over a range load levels

• Minimum• Shoulder• Peak• High Load Sensitivity

– Updating Potential Retirements Study

• Any public policy driven needs that may not be covered by the Assessment process?

Public Policy Requirements

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Process Status

• Completed 2014– Requested load forecast from LDCs– Sent final load forecast back to LDCs– Process and assumptions meeting– Suggested sensitivity studies

• Next Steps – Preliminary solutions meeting/presentation– Develop cost estimates– Draft study write-up– Complete multiple outage study– ATC review/approval – 2015 Assessment publication

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For more information, please contact David Smith

Phone: 920-338-6537

Email: dsmith@atcllc.com

Questions?

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Load Forecast Trends

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ATC System Peak Demand Forecast Comparison

ATC Actual* Peak ATC Normalized Peak 2014 Forecast (reconciled)

2013 Forecast (reconciled) 2012 Forecast (reconciled) 2011 Forecast (reconciled)

Note: ATC peak data series prior to 2001 is estimated using ATC Top 5 customers' peaks and applying a typical diversity factor.

The "reconciled" forecast adjusts the LSE forecasts downward by 144 MW to account for load "netted" in the historic data but "load only" in the forecasts. This is done for comparative purposes only.