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Amsterdam, 6 November 2009
North Africa & Middle EastOpportunity in diversity, with premiumisation as common factor
Jean Paul van HollebekeManaging Director Middle East, North and Central Africa
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AgendaOpportunity in diversity, with premiumisation as common factor
Heineken’s operates through a variety of successful business models in a kaleidoscope of markets and cultures across the region
North Africa & Middle East: Characteristics and growth outlookBeer and beverages marketMalt based non-alcoholic beverages
Heineken in the region, value creation through a variety of business modelsEgypt – Al AhramLebanon - AlamzaAlgeria - TangoTunisia - Sonobra
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Present across virtually all markets in the region
Heineken’s different business models
Fully consolidated ( )AlgeriaEgyptLebanon Tunisia
JVs, associates and participations ( )United Arab EmiratesIsrael Jordan Morocco
Export ( )IraqMaltaTurkeySyria
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The North Africa & Middle East regionA highly promising growth region
Main characteristicsImproving political and economic environmentStrong population growthGrowing GDP per capita, driven by Higher commodity pricesGrowing tourism (e.g. Egypt, Tunisia)Large infrastructure projects (foreign workers)Emerging middle class, driving premiumisation
Brand conscious consumer Diversity of cultures, sharing an entrepreneurial naturePersonal relations are key in business
Challenges: bureaucracy and inflation
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The beer and beverages marketAn emerging beer region with sound long-term fundamentals
Main characteristicsSmall but profitable beer marketsLimited number of large playersBeer market growth driven by increasing populationBrand conscious consumersPremium segment emerging Local consumption plus large numbers of tourists and foreign construction workers
OpportunitiesValue strategy via branding and premiumisationVolume growthNon-alcoholic beer (NABs), full beverages approach
ChallengesNo or limited possibilities for above-the-line advertisingHiring the best people
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EUR 92/hlincl. wine/spirits
EUR 105/hl
EUR 141/hl
EUR 97/hlExcl CSD/juices
Premium strategy drives strong revenue per hectoliter
A premium strategy paying off
Value strategy via branding and premiumisationBrand conscious consumersPremium segment emerging Strong growth Heineken® via local operations and export
Group beer volume 2.8 mhl - cagr 2004-08 14%
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Adjacent to beer, offering additional growth and scale
Category is set to grow by 50% in 2007-11 period (source: Euromonitor)Ramadan prohibits sales of beer for 30 days each yearSizeable operations in Tunisia, Egypt and Israel4 regional products:I. Amstel Zero - linked to beerII. Buckler/Birell - International and
linked to beerIII. Existing brands in countries with
flavored variants (e.g. Laziza in Lebanon)
IV. Fayrouz
Growing malt based non-alcoholic segment
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The success of Heineken in the regionGrowing share in a growing profit pool
Different business models for different marketsBuilding strong brand portfoliosDeveloping the premium segment, growing Heineken®Use full beverages portfolio strategyRegular price increase
Hiring the right peoplePool of well-educated managersMotivated employees who understand the region
Commercial
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Egypt in a nutshell
Population 74.6 m
GDP per Capita EUR 3,724
Total beer market 1.1 mhl
Beer Cons. Per Capita 1.6 l
2005-2020F beer consumption (mhl)
cagr3.0%
cagr2.9%
2008 beverages market 26mhl
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A model built on brands, distribution and a full beverages portfolio
Al Ahram Beverages Company
2008: Total volume 2.1mhl, revenue EUR 158mln
Significant progress in 2006-08 periodEBIT doubledHeadcount was halved Number of SKUs reducedNumber of wholesalers reduced by a third Route-To-Market improved Reducing distribution costs and increasing Weighted distribution
Beer
1.1mhlWines
62khlSpirits
42khlSoft Drinks
655khlMalt Production
16,000 TonsExport
208khl
# of SKUs
120Headcount
>2,400
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Integrated supply chain drives salesFrom barley fields via our ‘Drinkies’ retail chain to the consumer
Malt plant NABs
BirellFayrouzAmstel Zero
Beer
Heineken®StellaSakaraMeister
Sales and distribution warehouses (#10)
• Alcoholic
• NABs
• Combined
Off Premise(# 956)
Incl. Al AhramRetail Drinkies(# 39)
59%
Direct distribution
Indirect distribution(27 distributors)
41%
On Premise(# 3,350)
50%
50%
65%
35%
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Growing beer market - 2005-08 cagr 5.5%
In 2008 market +8%Luxor acquired in 2009Limited distribution of alcohol due to strict regulation in local marketLarge diversity in on-trade: micro outlet to five star hotelAlcohol advertising only in tourist areasTwo segments: Local market 53% vs. tourist market 47%
Al Ahram is the Egyptian beer market
International premium
MainstreamNr. 1 beer of Egypt
MainstreamStrong in touristic areas
Premium localHigh alcohol beer
Non alcoholic beer Market leader plain malt
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Consumer is brand-oriented
Premium segment growing Heineken® and Sakara Draught fastest growers due to tourismSakara Draught doubled in 2006-08Heineken® +60% in 2006-08
Value share across product range growing faster than volume
Brand mix 2008 (volume) Volume share H1-09 Al Ahram
Al Ahram’s beer positioning
Value share H1-09 Al Ahram
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A strong company with a strong brand portfolio
Al Ahram
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Al Ahram bringing back the wine heritage of Egypt
Two players: Al Ahram 77% and Eibco 23%Wine market grew 30% in 2006-082009 ytd market growth 1% affected by fewer touristsPremium segment growingLocal market 14%, tourist market 86%Imported wines in 5* hotels only (300% import duties)
Drivers for future growth Al AhramConsumption growth (local, tourism)Premiumisation driven bySubstantial improvement in quality since 2006-2007Route-to-market (full beverages approach, Drinkies stores)
Egyptian wine market
Premium BrandsTarget: Local market
Kegs and bag in boxTarget : tourist market
Mainstream BrandsTarget: tourist
Mid Range BrandsTarget : local market
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Spirits market mainly driven by vodka and brandy
Spirits market growing 14% in 2006-09EPremium segment growing 37%2008 market mix: mainstream spirits 69%, premium spirits 9%, RTDs 22%Local market 50% of total volumeImportant informal marketImportant duty free channel
Drivers for future growth Al AhramConsumption growth (local, tourism)PremiumisationRoute-to-market (full beverages approach, Drinkies stores)
Egyptian spirits market
ID vodka Premium brands
“Cocktail company”Premium brands
ID RTDPremium brands
Bolonachi ‘El sherka’Mainstream brands
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Fast growing soft drink market, although low value
Coca Cola and Pepsi fighting for market dominance, high media spend, low pricesFlat prices despite years of high inflation (last increase in Nov. 2008)335,000 outlets80% of CSD volume sold in outlets of less than 40m²Pack type shifts towards PET and cansLow value
Drivers for future growth Al AhramConsumption growth (local, tourism)InnovationsAl Ahram’s route-to-market
Egyptian soft drink market
Flavoured malt based beverage
National distribution
500,000 hl
Produced under license
Regional distribution
200,000 hl
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A model built on brands, distribution and a full beverages portfolio
Drivers for future growth Al AhramConsumption growth (local, tourism)Full portfolio approachPremiumisation and brand buildingExpanding retail network DrinkiesRoute-to-marketInnovations
Summary Egypt
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Lebanon in a nutshell
Population 3.8 mGDP per Capita EUR 7,655Total beer market 0.2 mhl
Beer Cons. Per Capita 7.3 l
2005-2020F beer consumption (mhl)
cagr2.2%
cagr2.2%
Overall beverage market
Beer Softdrinks Juices
Water Coffee & Tea Others
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A model based on premiumisation
2008 market (0.3mhl) Capacity brewery 0.3mhlFTEs ±250
80% market shareHeineken® (IPS) - 11% market shareAlmaza (mainstream) - 60% market shareRex (economy) – 7% market share
NABsLaziza 70% market share
Successful turnaround in period 2006-08Professional managementWell-trained sales forceEBIT almost tripled in 2006-09F
Brasserie Almaza
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A model based on premiumisation
All focus on value growthSophisticated market Brand-conscious consumer Emerging middle class, driving premiumisation
IPS cagr of 7% in 2007-12EHeineken® (IPS) - 11% market share
>90% share of IPS segment
Brasserie Almaza
Heineken® total market share
Commercial
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Algeria in a nutshell
Population 34.7 m
GDP per Capita EUR 4,758
Total beer market 1.2 mhl
Beer Cons. Per Capita 3.8 l
2005-2020F consumption (mhl)
cagr2.6%
cagr1.6%
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Tango sarlA successful switch from import to local production
Export since 1998 (first exclusive contract)Acquired in January 2008Modern brewery in Rouiba (Capacity 750,000 hl), 350 FTE
Value growth driven byVolume growth (total consumption)PremiumisationMarket share gainsPrice increases
Beverages marketMarket 19.9 mhl of which beer 1.2 mhlNo direct distribution, only independent wholesalers
Beer marketOn-trade 36%, off-trade 64%Bottles 50%, cans 47%, kegs 3%
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Price positioningAlgerian beer market: substantial premiums for international beer
Tango, Samba, Beaufort,
Amstel, Beck’s
Fiesta, GoldenAllbraû, Primus
Stella Artois
Heineken, Carlsberg, 1664, EFES
Market share
19 %217,000hl
7 %78,000hl
9 %108,000hl
42 %489,000hl
23 %268,000hl
Mainstream
Low Premium
Low priced 85%
115 %
125 %
>140%
Premium
High Premium
100 %
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Import business transformed into successful local production
Grew Heineken® on import basis Acquired brewery in 2008Local production Heineken® started in2008
Brand equity remained strongPrice positioning at 146%
‘Actions’ in 2009:100% availability in all outlets of all sku’sIn October, 33cl CPL* introducedIn November, 25cl CPL introduced
Future value growth driven by:Volume growthFurther growth premium segmentMarket share gainsPrice increases
Heineken® dominates premium segment
Heineken® highly successful in 2007-09E
*CPL = one way bottle with Clear Plastic Label
+87%
>30%
Market share in Algeria (in 96)
*in IPS (2008 (57%)
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A diverse region highly appreciating brands
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Tunisia in a nutshell
Population 10.5 mGDP per Capita EUR 5,448Total beer market 1.3 mhlBeer Cons. Per Capita 12.2 l
2005-2020F beer consumption (mhl)
cagr4.4%
cagr2.9%
Overall beverage market (excl. water)
Beer Softdrinks
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Marketing: UEFA activation / Green Lounge
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Marketing: ‘painting’ outlets
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Tunisian beverages marketPremium beer segment underdeveloped allowing ample room for value growth
BeerUntil 2008 SFBT (49% Castel) with 100% market sharePremium 10%, mainstream 90%On-trade 70%, off-trade (modern retail) 30%Bottles 55%, cans 35%, kegs 10%Premium segment underdeveloped, but sound fundamentalsTourism 7mln in 2008, an important growth driver
All familiar with Heineken®
Soft DrinksOne dominant player (SFBT); SNBG-SONEM as challenger, while (already) leader in juices
Mhl SFBT SNBG-SONEM
CSD 4 90% * 10%
Water 6.5 70% 10%
Juices 0.5 5% 50%
* Includes Coca-Cola licence
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Sonobra & SNBG-SONEMGreen field brewery paving the way for a full beverages company
Past Impossible to import beerHeineken® 70% awareness despite not being sold
Dec. 2006 Sonobra, joint venture for construction of a brewery (180khl)Apr. 2008 Sonobra acquires SNBG-SONEM soft drinks group Oct. 2008 Opening Sonobra brewery, launch Golden Brau brandApr. 2009 Launch Heineken® brand (locally brewed)
Heineken growth ambition in TunisiaBuilding a full-beverages company
Leveraging SNBG’s market power to grow beer volumeDistribution and sales networkMarket expertise
Developing into strong challenger based on strong leadership inPremium segment with Heineken®Juices segment
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Closing remarksOpportunity in diversity, with premiumisation as common factor
Sound fundamentalsStrong population growth and growing GDP per capita Emerging brand conscious middle classSmall but growing profitable beer marketsNon-alcoholic beer and malt-based beverage segments
Heineken in North Africa & the Middle EastStrong footprint; export, new and existing breweries
Value strategy via branding and premiumisation Heineken® and local brands
Marketing tailored to fit different markets and culturesWell-positioned to benefit from growth and premiumisation trends
Full-beverage portfolios and distribution structure drive volume and shareNABs offer additional value, volume and scale
Well-trained and highly-experienced people
Amsterdam, 6 November 2009
Thank you
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Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements with regard to the financial position and results ofHeineken’s activities. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that couldcause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.
Many of these risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond Heineken’s ability to control orestimate precisely, such as future market and economic conditions, the behaviour of other marketparticipants, changes in consumer preferences, the ability to successfully integrate acquired businessesand achieve anticipated synergies, costs of raw materials, interest rate - and foreign exchangefluctuations, change in tax rates, changes in law, pension costs, the actions of government regulators andweather conditions. These and other risk factors are detailed in Heineken’s publicly filed annual reports.
You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only asof the date of this presentation. Heineken does not undertake any obligation to publicly release anyrevisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of thesematerials.
Market share estimates contained in this presentation are based on outside sources such as specializedresearch institutes in combination with management estimates.
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Algeria - regional beer volumeBig regional differences: From high consumption to “dry” areas
Region (wilaya)Total
Volume
TIZI OUZOU 245.311ALGER 202.930BEJAIA 179.528ORAN 91.080
Annaba 54.597Skikda 40.035TIARET 24.883
Sidi Bel Abbes 23.066El Tarf 21.522GUELMA 18.536
Mostaganem 17.143
Constantine 15.823Mascara 13.209
Boumerdes 13.139Tipaza 11.625
RELIZANE 10.348Setif 9.876TEBESSA 8.001
Oum El Bouaghi 6.232Biskra 4.319
Ain Temouchent 4.181Batna 3.593
Souk Arhas 2.185BLIDA 1.059Bouira 999Tlemcen 959
< 5,000hl < 15,000hl < 25,000hl < 100,000hl > 100,000hlVolume per Wilaya
Source: Heineken
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Algeria – Volume / regional spread brewers
Volume per brewer
Total hl Total %
Castel 459,000 46%
SARL TANGO 373,000 37%
Autre 60,000 6%
Algad 54,000 5%
Albrau 33,000 3%
Br. Reghaia 26,000 3%
PSA 4,000 0‐1%
Grand Total 1,009,000 100%
ALGER ANNABA BEJAIA ORANTIZI
OUZOUNational
Castel 53% 45% 35% 48% 45% 46%
SARL Tango 33% 37% 41% 29% 44% 37%
Autre 6% 8% 5% 11% 3% 6%
Algad 5% 7% 5% 6% 4% 5%
Albrau 2% 0% 10% 4% 1% 3%
Reghaia 1% 3% 3% 2% 4% 3%
PSA 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Brewers share per region
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Tunisia - Full beverages companyEconomies of scale via leverage of route-to-market
Sonobra (Societé Nouvelle de Brasserie)50%-50% joint venture with Groupe Boujbel (tourism group)150 FTE Brewery in Grombalia (capacity 180,000 hl)Distribution via SNBG distribution centres
SNBG-SONEM (Societé Nouvelle de Boissons Gazeuses, Societé Nouvelle des Eaux Minérales)Acquired in April 2008 (created in 1979)Production: 400,000 hl carbonated; 250,000 hl juices; 600,000 hl water2 plants (Grombalia, Ksar Lemsa), 6 distributions centres , 150 delivery trucks700 FTEBrands
CSD: Viva, Florida (SNBG owned) and RC cola portfolioJuices: Tropico, Diva, Oh!, RaouaMineral water: Fourat
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Laziza – market leader in non-alcoholic beer
Tunisia - Brand building key
New campaign launched mid JuneTV campaign; Outdoor campaign;radio campaignExtensive sampling campaign in modern tradeLaziza to become more aspirational tothe new generation of young peoplewho are more independent in their choices