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Amsterdam, 6 November 2009 North Africa & Middle East Opportunity in diversity, with premiumisation as common factor Jean Paul van Hollebeke Managing Director Middle East, North and Central Africa

4 Africa & Middle East Jean Paul Van Hollebeke

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Page 1: 4 Africa & Middle East Jean Paul Van Hollebeke

Amsterdam, 6 November 2009

North Africa & Middle EastOpportunity in diversity, with premiumisation as common factor

Jean Paul van HollebekeManaging Director Middle East, North and Central Africa

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AgendaOpportunity in diversity, with premiumisation as common factor

Heineken’s operates through a variety of successful business models in a kaleidoscope of markets and cultures across the region

North Africa & Middle East: Characteristics and growth outlookBeer and beverages marketMalt based non-alcoholic beverages

Heineken in the region, value creation through a variety of business modelsEgypt – Al AhramLebanon - AlamzaAlgeria - TangoTunisia - Sonobra

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Present across virtually all markets in the region

Heineken’s different business models

Fully consolidated ( )AlgeriaEgyptLebanon Tunisia

JVs, associates and participations ( )United Arab EmiratesIsrael Jordan Morocco

Export ( )IraqMaltaTurkeySyria

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The North Africa & Middle East regionA highly promising growth region

Main characteristicsImproving political and economic environmentStrong population growthGrowing GDP per capita, driven by Higher commodity pricesGrowing tourism (e.g. Egypt, Tunisia)Large infrastructure projects (foreign workers)Emerging middle class, driving premiumisation

Brand conscious consumer Diversity of cultures, sharing an entrepreneurial naturePersonal relations are key in business

Challenges: bureaucracy and inflation

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The beer and beverages marketAn emerging beer region with sound long-term fundamentals

Main characteristicsSmall but profitable beer marketsLimited number of large playersBeer market growth driven by increasing populationBrand conscious consumersPremium segment emerging Local consumption plus large numbers of tourists and foreign construction workers

OpportunitiesValue strategy via branding and premiumisationVolume growthNon-alcoholic beer (NABs), full beverages approach

ChallengesNo or limited possibilities for above-the-line advertisingHiring the best people

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EUR 92/hlincl. wine/spirits

EUR 105/hl

EUR 141/hl

EUR 97/hlExcl CSD/juices

Premium strategy drives strong revenue per hectoliter

A premium strategy paying off

Value strategy via branding and premiumisationBrand conscious consumersPremium segment emerging Strong growth Heineken® via local operations and export

Group beer volume 2.8 mhl - cagr 2004-08 14%

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Adjacent to beer, offering additional growth and scale

Category is set to grow by 50% in 2007-11 period (source: Euromonitor)Ramadan prohibits sales of beer for 30 days each yearSizeable operations in Tunisia, Egypt and Israel4 regional products:I. Amstel Zero - linked to beerII. Buckler/Birell - International and

linked to beerIII. Existing brands in countries with

flavored variants (e.g. Laziza in Lebanon)

IV. Fayrouz

Growing malt based non-alcoholic segment

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The success of Heineken in the regionGrowing share in a growing profit pool

Different business models for different marketsBuilding strong brand portfoliosDeveloping the premium segment, growing Heineken®Use full beverages portfolio strategyRegular price increase

Hiring the right peoplePool of well-educated managersMotivated employees who understand the region

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Commercial

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Egypt in a nutshell

Population 74.6 m

GDP per Capita EUR 3,724

Total beer market 1.1 mhl

Beer Cons. Per Capita 1.6 l

2005-2020F beer consumption (mhl)

cagr3.0%

cagr2.9%

2008 beverages market 26mhl

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A model built on brands, distribution and a full beverages portfolio

Al Ahram Beverages Company

2008: Total volume 2.1mhl, revenue EUR 158mln

Significant progress in 2006-08 periodEBIT doubledHeadcount was halved Number of SKUs reducedNumber of wholesalers reduced by a third Route-To-Market improved Reducing distribution costs and increasing Weighted distribution

Beer

1.1mhlWines

62khlSpirits

42khlSoft Drinks

655khlMalt Production

16,000 TonsExport

208khl

# of SKUs

120Headcount

>2,400

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Integrated supply chain drives salesFrom barley fields via our ‘Drinkies’ retail chain to the consumer

Malt plant NABs

BirellFayrouzAmstel Zero

Beer

Heineken®StellaSakaraMeister

Sales and distribution warehouses (#10)

• Alcoholic

• NABs

• Combined

Off Premise(# 956)

Incl. Al AhramRetail Drinkies(# 39)

59%

Direct distribution

Indirect distribution(27 distributors)

41%

On Premise(# 3,350)

50%

50%

65%

35%

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Growing beer market - 2005-08 cagr 5.5%

In 2008 market +8%Luxor acquired in 2009Limited distribution of alcohol due to strict regulation in local marketLarge diversity in on-trade: micro outlet to five star hotelAlcohol advertising only in tourist areasTwo segments: Local market 53% vs. tourist market 47%

Al Ahram is the Egyptian beer market

International premium

MainstreamNr. 1 beer of Egypt

MainstreamStrong in touristic areas

Premium localHigh alcohol beer

Non alcoholic beer Market leader plain malt

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Consumer is brand-oriented

Premium segment growing Heineken® and Sakara Draught fastest growers due to tourismSakara Draught doubled in 2006-08Heineken® +60% in 2006-08

Value share across product range growing faster than volume

Brand mix 2008 (volume) Volume share H1-09 Al Ahram

Al Ahram’s beer positioning

Value share H1-09 Al Ahram

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A strong company with a strong brand portfolio

Al Ahram

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Al Ahram bringing back the wine heritage of Egypt

Two players: Al Ahram 77% and Eibco 23%Wine market grew 30% in 2006-082009 ytd market growth 1% affected by fewer touristsPremium segment growingLocal market 14%, tourist market 86%Imported wines in 5* hotels only (300% import duties)

Drivers for future growth Al AhramConsumption growth (local, tourism)Premiumisation driven bySubstantial improvement in quality since 2006-2007Route-to-market (full beverages approach, Drinkies stores)

Egyptian wine market

Premium BrandsTarget: Local market

Kegs and bag in boxTarget : tourist market

Mainstream BrandsTarget: tourist

Mid Range BrandsTarget : local market

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Spirits market mainly driven by vodka and brandy

Spirits market growing 14% in 2006-09EPremium segment growing 37%2008 market mix: mainstream spirits 69%, premium spirits 9%, RTDs 22%Local market 50% of total volumeImportant informal marketImportant duty free channel

Drivers for future growth Al AhramConsumption growth (local, tourism)PremiumisationRoute-to-market (full beverages approach, Drinkies stores)

Egyptian spirits market

ID vodka Premium brands

“Cocktail company”Premium brands

ID RTDPremium brands

Bolonachi ‘El sherka’Mainstream brands

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Fast growing soft drink market, although low value

Coca Cola and Pepsi fighting for market dominance, high media spend, low pricesFlat prices despite years of high inflation (last increase in Nov. 2008)335,000 outlets80% of CSD volume sold in outlets of less than 40m²Pack type shifts towards PET and cansLow value

Drivers for future growth Al AhramConsumption growth (local, tourism)InnovationsAl Ahram’s route-to-market

Egyptian soft drink market

Flavoured malt based beverage

National distribution

500,000 hl

Produced under license

Regional distribution

200,000 hl

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A model built on brands, distribution and a full beverages portfolio

Drivers for future growth Al AhramConsumption growth (local, tourism)Full portfolio approachPremiumisation and brand buildingExpanding retail network DrinkiesRoute-to-marketInnovations

Summary Egypt

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Lebanon in a nutshell

Population 3.8 mGDP per Capita EUR 7,655Total beer market 0.2 mhl

Beer Cons. Per Capita 7.3 l

2005-2020F beer consumption (mhl)

cagr2.2%

cagr2.2%

Overall beverage market

Beer Softdrinks Juices

Water Coffee & Tea Others

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A model based on premiumisation

2008 market (0.3mhl) Capacity brewery 0.3mhlFTEs ±250

80% market shareHeineken® (IPS) - 11% market shareAlmaza (mainstream) - 60% market shareRex (economy) – 7% market share

NABsLaziza 70% market share

Successful turnaround in period 2006-08Professional managementWell-trained sales forceEBIT almost tripled in 2006-09F

Brasserie Almaza

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A model based on premiumisation

All focus on value growthSophisticated market Brand-conscious consumer Emerging middle class, driving premiumisation

IPS cagr of 7% in 2007-12EHeineken® (IPS) - 11% market share

>90% share of IPS segment

Brasserie Almaza

Heineken® total market share

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Commercial

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Algeria in a nutshell

Population 34.7 m

GDP per Capita EUR 4,758

Total beer market 1.2 mhl

Beer Cons. Per Capita 3.8 l

2005-2020F consumption (mhl)

cagr2.6%

cagr1.6%

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Tango sarlA successful switch from import to local production

Export since 1998 (first exclusive contract)Acquired in January 2008Modern brewery in Rouiba (Capacity 750,000 hl), 350 FTE

Value growth driven byVolume growth (total consumption)PremiumisationMarket share gainsPrice increases

Beverages marketMarket 19.9 mhl of which beer 1.2 mhlNo direct distribution, only independent wholesalers

Beer marketOn-trade 36%, off-trade 64%Bottles 50%, cans 47%, kegs 3%

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Price positioningAlgerian beer market: substantial premiums for international beer

Tango, Samba, Beaufort,

Amstel, Beck’s

Fiesta, GoldenAllbraû, Primus

Stella Artois

Heineken, Carlsberg, 1664, EFES

Market share

19 %217,000hl

7 %78,000hl

9 %108,000hl

42 %489,000hl

23 %268,000hl

Mainstream

Low Premium

Low priced 85%

115 %

125 %

>140%

Premium

High Premium

100 %

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Import business transformed into successful local production

Grew Heineken® on import basis Acquired brewery in 2008Local production Heineken® started in2008

Brand equity remained strongPrice positioning at 146%

‘Actions’ in 2009:100% availability in all outlets of all sku’sIn October, 33cl CPL* introducedIn November, 25cl CPL introduced

Future value growth driven by:Volume growthFurther growth premium segmentMarket share gainsPrice increases

Heineken® dominates premium segment

Heineken® highly successful in 2007-09E

*CPL = one way bottle with Clear Plastic Label

+87%

>30%

Market share in Algeria (in 96)

*in IPS (2008 (57%)

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A diverse region highly appreciating brands

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Tunisia in a nutshell

Population 10.5 mGDP per Capita EUR 5,448Total beer market 1.3 mhlBeer Cons. Per Capita 12.2 l

2005-2020F beer consumption (mhl)

cagr4.4%

cagr2.9%

Overall beverage market (excl. water)

Beer Softdrinks

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Marketing: UEFA activation / Green Lounge

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Marketing: ‘painting’ outlets

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Tunisian beverages marketPremium beer segment underdeveloped allowing ample room for value growth

BeerUntil 2008 SFBT (49% Castel) with 100% market sharePremium 10%, mainstream 90%On-trade 70%, off-trade (modern retail) 30%Bottles 55%, cans 35%, kegs 10%Premium segment underdeveloped, but sound fundamentalsTourism 7mln in 2008, an important growth driver

All familiar with Heineken®

Soft DrinksOne dominant player (SFBT); SNBG-SONEM as challenger, while (already) leader in juices

Mhl SFBT SNBG-SONEM

CSD 4 90% * 10%

Water 6.5 70% 10%

Juices 0.5 5% 50%

* Includes Coca-Cola licence

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Sonobra & SNBG-SONEMGreen field brewery paving the way for a full beverages company

Past Impossible to import beerHeineken® 70% awareness despite not being sold

Dec. 2006 Sonobra, joint venture for construction of a brewery (180khl)Apr. 2008 Sonobra acquires SNBG-SONEM soft drinks group Oct. 2008 Opening Sonobra brewery, launch Golden Brau brandApr. 2009 Launch Heineken® brand (locally brewed)

Heineken growth ambition in TunisiaBuilding a full-beverages company

Leveraging SNBG’s market power to grow beer volumeDistribution and sales networkMarket expertise

Developing into strong challenger based on strong leadership inPremium segment with Heineken®Juices segment

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Closing remarksOpportunity in diversity, with premiumisation as common factor

Sound fundamentalsStrong population growth and growing GDP per capita Emerging brand conscious middle classSmall but growing profitable beer marketsNon-alcoholic beer and malt-based beverage segments

Heineken in North Africa & the Middle EastStrong footprint; export, new and existing breweries

Value strategy via branding and premiumisation Heineken® and local brands

Marketing tailored to fit different markets and culturesWell-positioned to benefit from growth and premiumisation trends

Full-beverage portfolios and distribution structure drive volume and shareNABs offer additional value, volume and scale

Well-trained and highly-experienced people

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Amsterdam, 6 November 2009

Thank you

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Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements with regard to the financial position and results ofHeineken’s activities. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that couldcause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.

Many of these risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond Heineken’s ability to control orestimate precisely, such as future market and economic conditions, the behaviour of other marketparticipants, changes in consumer preferences, the ability to successfully integrate acquired businessesand achieve anticipated synergies, costs of raw materials, interest rate - and foreign exchangefluctuations, change in tax rates, changes in law, pension costs, the actions of government regulators andweather conditions. These and other risk factors are detailed in Heineken’s publicly filed annual reports.

You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only asof the date of this presentation. Heineken does not undertake any obligation to publicly release anyrevisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of thesematerials.

Market share estimates contained in this presentation are based on outside sources such as specializedresearch institutes in combination with management estimates.

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Algeria - regional beer volumeBig regional differences: From high consumption to “dry” areas

Region (wilaya)Total 

Volume

TIZI OUZOU 245.311ALGER 202.930BEJAIA 179.528ORAN 91.080

Annaba 54.597Skikda  40.035TIARET 24.883

Sidi Bel Abbes 23.066El Tarf  21.522GUELMA 18.536

Mostaganem  17.143

Constantine 15.823Mascara 13.209

Boumerdes  13.139Tipaza  11.625

RELIZANE 10.348Setif  9.876TEBESSA 8.001

Oum El Bouaghi  6.232Biskra  4.319

Ain Temouchent  4.181Batna  3.593

Souk Arhas  2.185BLIDA 1.059Bouira  999Tlemcen  959

< 5,000hl < 15,000hl < 25,000hl < 100,000hl > 100,000hlVolume per Wilaya

Source: Heineken

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Algeria – Volume / regional spread brewers

Volume per brewer

Total hl Total %

Castel  459,000  46%

SARL TANGO  373,000  37%

Autre 60,000  6%

Algad  54,000  5%

Albrau  33,000  3%

Br. Reghaia  26,000  3%

PSA  4,000  0‐1%

Grand Total  1,009,000  100%

ALGER ANNABA BEJAIA ORANTIZI  

OUZOUNational

Castel 53% 45% 35% 48% 45% 46%

SARL Tango 33% 37% 41% 29% 44% 37%

Autre 6% 8% 5% 11% 3% 6%

Algad 5% 7% 5% 6% 4% 5%

Albrau 2% 0% 10% 4% 1% 3%

Reghaia 1% 3% 3% 2% 4% 3%

PSA 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Brewers share per region

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Tunisia - Full beverages companyEconomies of scale via leverage of route-to-market

Sonobra (Societé Nouvelle de Brasserie)50%-50% joint venture with Groupe Boujbel (tourism group)150 FTE Brewery in Grombalia (capacity 180,000 hl)Distribution via SNBG distribution centres

SNBG-SONEM (Societé Nouvelle de Boissons Gazeuses, Societé Nouvelle des Eaux Minérales)Acquired in April 2008 (created in 1979)Production: 400,000 hl carbonated; 250,000 hl juices; 600,000 hl water2 plants (Grombalia, Ksar Lemsa), 6 distributions centres , 150 delivery trucks700 FTEBrands

CSD: Viva, Florida (SNBG owned) and RC cola portfolioJuices: Tropico, Diva, Oh!, RaouaMineral water: Fourat

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Laziza – market leader in non-alcoholic beer

Tunisia - Brand building key

New campaign launched mid JuneTV campaign; Outdoor campaign;radio campaignExtensive sampling campaign in modern tradeLaziza to become more aspirational tothe new generation of young peoplewho are more independent in their choices