3WCDRR: UN GAR Global Risk Assessment - CPAESS · ü Risk assessment is key to aware but also to concern decision-makers of their responsibility ü Disaster risk is a contingent liability

3WCDRR:UNGARGlobalRiskAssessment

INGENIAR CAD/CAE Ltd. Cardona, O.D., Bernal, G. (2017). Scoping Meeting Agricultural Risk Assessment. Boulder, CO, 7-9 February 2017.

GARGlobalRiskAssessment:AtGlance

Dr. Prof. Omar-Dario CARDONA A.

National University of Colombia at Manizales

Representative

MULTI-HAZARDFULLYPROBABILISTICRISKASSESSMENTRESULTSATGLOBALLEVEL

International Centre for Numerical Methods in Engineering

& INGENIAR LTDA

INGENIAR

Scoping Meeting Agricultural Risk Assessment

Incorporating drought and the agricultural sector in the GAR Global Risk Model

7 – 9 February 2017 – Boulder, Colorado


ü  Measuring is essential to decide; what is not dimensioned cannot be administrated

ü  An operational picture of risk improves risk knowledge and provides an overall risk landscape

ü  Risk assessment is key to aware but also to concern decision-makers of their responsibility

ü  Disaster risk is a contingent liability and therefore a sovereign risk for the society

ü  Risk reduction and prevention are duties for risk governance and for the nations’ accountability

ü  Track DRM progress over time means considering the development transformation trade-offs

Why a Global Risk Assessment ?


COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT INGENIAR CAD/CAE Ltd. Cardona, O.D., Bernal, G. (2017). Scoping Meeting Agricultural Risk Assessment. Boulder, CO, 7-9 February 2017.

ü Mutuallyexclusive

ü Collectivelyexhaustiveü Admitprobabilisticrepresentation

.AME FORMAT

Setofstochasticscenarios

CyclonicWindandSeismicHazard


Exceed

acerate

Intensitymeasure

T = 100 years

T =500 years

T = 1000 years

ν = 0.01

ν = 0.002

ν = 0.001

Hazardmapsfordifferentreturnperiods

Intensitymeasure

Exceed

ancera

te(1/year)

SeismicHazardAssessmentIntensityexceedancecurvesineachnodeoftheglobalgrid

C I M N E INGENIAR CAD/CAE Ltd. Cardona, O.D., Bernal, G. (2017). Scoping Meeting Agricultural Risk Assessment. Boulder, CO, 7-9 February 2017.

T=0.5sec,Tr=475years

SeismicHazardAssessmentEarthquakeHazardMaps

Cardonaet.al.(2015)


Tr=100years

TropicalCycloneWindHazardMapsCyclonicWindHazard

020406080100120150180220250280300350400Cardonaet.al.(2015)


Tsunami,Floods,VolcanicAsh,StormSurge,ClimateChangeScenarios

OtherProbabilisticHazards

Tsunami:Run-upheightforTr500years Løvholtet.al.(2014)

VolcanicashloadforTr100yearsFloodsforTr1000years

Bear-Crozieret.al,2014CIMA(2014)


5x5kmgrids&1x1kminthecoastsGlobalExposureDatabase

GRID,UNEP(2014)INGENIAR CAD/CAE Ltd. Cardona, O.D., Bernal, G. (2017). Scoping Meeting Agricultural Risk Assessment. Boulder, CO, 7-9 February 2017.

Vulnerabilityfunctionsfordifferenthazards

Vulnerability


Vulnerabilityfunctionsforearthquakes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00

SEISMICDESIGNLEVEL:M

MDR(%)

SpectralAcceleration,Sa(g)

MDR- - - - Var.

Vulnerability


QUALITYLEVEL:M

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

MDR(%)

WindSpeed(kph)

MDR

- - - - Var.

WOOD

REINFORCEDCONCRETEFRAM

ES

REINFORCEDMASONRY

Vulnerabilityfunctionsforwind

Vulnerability


ExposedAssets Vulnerability

Hazard

Loss

PDF of Loss LossesEconomic Human

Risk

Loss

Exc

eeda

nce

Rat

e v(

p)

PML

AAL

LOSSEXCEEDANCECURVE

PROBABLEMAXIMUMLOSS

AVERAGEANNUALLOSS

RiskModeling:LossAssessment


Considered event from the stochastic set

Considered asset (or grid) at analysis area

Considered building(s) class(es)

Hazard intensity at analysis site

Vulnerability function selection

Loss and variance calculation

Loss probability distribution function calculation for the event

Any other building class at the site?

Has all area been

analyzed?

Have all events been considered?

Loss exceedance rate calculation using the loss PDF associated to each event and its occurrence frequency

Yes

No Yes

Yes

No

No

RiskModelling:LossAssessment


p P

f(x)

p P

f(x)

Lossexce

edan

cerate(#/year)

Losses

( ) ∑=

⋅≥=Events

iA iEventFiEventLlpv

1)()|(Pr

∫∞

=0

)|()|()|( dSaiEventSafSalfiEventlf Vulnerability Hazard


LossExceedanceCurveGovernmentsneedtodefineariskreduction/financingstrategy

Transfer Retention

Loss($000)

Layer 1 Layer 4 Layer 2

Retention (budget / contingent credit)

1=Highprobability&low/moderatelosses2=Mediumprobability&moderate/highlosses3=Lowprobability&highlosses4=Verylowprobability&veryhighlosses

Layer 3

Planning / Prevention / Mitigation

Regulation (Codes / Standards / Land use) (Residual Risk)

Warning / Emergency response

10 5 1 0.5 0.1 0.01 0.001

50 100 500 1000

0.1 0.2 1 2 10 100 1000

Return

period(yea

rs)

Lossexc

eeda

nce(#

/yea

r)


ExtensiveandIntensiveRiskAssessmentAnalytical(propective)LossExceedanceCurve

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,0000.00001

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1,000

0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

Returnperiod[years]

Lossexceedancerate[1/year]

Economicloss[Million$USD]

Analyticalcurve


0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,0000.00001

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1,000

0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

Returnperiod[years]



Historiccurve Analyticalcurve

ExtensiveandIntensiveRiskAssessmentEmpiric(retrospective)LossExceedanceCurve


Proposalofa“Hybrid”LossExceedanceCurve0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,0000.00001

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1,000

0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

Returnperiod[years]



Historiccurve Analyticalcurve Hybridcurve

AAL

------------ PML-------------


DistributionofAALbycountry,US$millions

RiskMapsSeismicRiskAssessment


DistributionofAALrelativetotheexposedvaluebycountry



DistributionofPML1500bycountry,US$millions



DistributionofPML1500relativetotheexposedvaluebycountry



UsingAverageAnnualLoss(AAL)resultsRiskRankingsofCountries


RiskMaps

Multi-hazardRiskAssessment

DistributionofAALbycountry,US$millionsINGENIAR CAD/CAE Ltd. Cardona, O.D., Bernal, G. (2017). Scoping Meeting Agricultural Risk Assessment. Boulder, CO, 7-9 February 2017.

RiskMaps

Multi-hazardRiskAssessment

DistributionofAALrelativetotheexposedvaluebycountryINGENIAR CAD/CAE Ltd. Cardona, O.D., Bernal, G. (2017). Scoping Meeting Agricultural Risk Assessment. Boulder, CO, 7-9 February 2017.

SomeGlobalFiguresbyRegionandEconomyLevel

ExposureValue(PC)


SomeGlobalFiguresbyRegion(Multi-hazard)

AALValue AAL/PC‰


AALValue AAL/PC‰

SomeGlobalFiguresbyEconomyLevel(Multi-hazard)


DisasterRiskDevelopmentImplicationsIndex(DRDI)




CAPRA-Viewer


TheChallenge:FromGlobaltoLocal


ü  A fully probabilistic multi-hazard risk assessment has been conducted at global level. Results are useful for comparisons and rankings among countries

ü  In the past, risk had been estimated mainly based on historical records. The GAR’s Global Risk Model takes into account “events that have not yet occurred”. This is a key issue for SFA follow-up.

ü  Countries must carry-out risk assessments with higher resolution at sub-national and local level when the required information is available.

ü  From global to local: the same “arithmetic” can be used for any resolution level.

Regarding the GAR’s Global Risk Model:


Global Risk Assessment (Model):

Earthquakes,

Tsunami,

Tropical Cyclones (w and w/o cc),

Riverine floods,

Volcanic ash-fall,

Droughts ?


Understanding probable losses due to hazard events (not only disasters)

creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to cope with risk, including

allocating the sustained budgetary resources necessary to reduce the

potential damage and safeguard the transformation of development.


It is necessary to explore how probabilistic risk models and holistic

models can be integrated in an effort to develop a methodology that can

provide the true benefits of aggregation and disaggregation of hard

and soft risk drivers to identify the corrective and prospective interventions to be done.


“Farbetteranapproximateanswertotherightquestion,whichisoftenvague,thananexactanswertothewrongquestion,whichcanalwaysbemadeprecise”

JohnW.Tukey

Documents

3WCDRR: UN GAR Global Risk Assessment - CPAESS · ü Risk assessment is key to aware but also to concern decision-makers of their responsibility ü Disaster risk is a contingent liability