391 First Nuclear Age.ppt

7/24/2019 391 First Nuclear Age.ppt

1/37

Strategy and NuclearWeapons

National National SecurityGoals Strategy

Global Environment

But: technology infuences strategy


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Developments and Debates

Early 20thcentury: Airpoer

!id to late 20thcentury: nuclear

eapons 2"stcentury: cybereapons


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#S Strategy to "$%0s

&otal War: 'ichmond "$()
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/civil-war-150th-anniversary-gallery-1.14612?pmSlide=19


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"$%0s: Naval *oer

Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840-1914)
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=ETSsNGz-FRTF6M&tbnid=TgGTk_btYrlIxM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.history.navy.mil/bios/mahan_alfred.htm&ei=AdZAUoXUDOLA4AOdmYHYDQ&bvm=bv.52434380,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNHv59xkRNR1P24as97nVMNEgCM-oA&ust=1380067171811534https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl&imgrefurl=http://www.amazon.com/Influence-History-1660-1783-Military-Weapons/dp/0486255093&h=0&w=0&sz=1&tbnid=Znu5oo85cK4hTM&tbnh=285&tbnw=177&zoom=1&docid=zRHICChp7hHCYM&hl=en&ei=pNVAUr38CeL84APaw4DQCw&ved=0CAIQsCU


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&he 'ise o+ Airpoer:20thcentury

&o ,ies

Airpoer is a novelty

Airpoer is decisiveGiulio -ouhet ./taly

William !itchell .#S
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&docid=VmH4TcQ6tJnfjM&tbnid=ee3whiUv6JRF0M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.bibliovault.org/BV.book.epl?ISBN%3D9780817356088&ei=QtdAUt7wNPa24AOXhYGADw&bvm=bv.52434380,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFWc3lUnUhY_CQ_FxaW4n8Mz2VWFg&ust=1380067498186194http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&docid=VmH4TcQ6tJnfjM&tbnid=ee3whiUv6JRF0M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.bibliovault.org/BV.book.epl?ISBN%3D9780817356088&ei=QtdAUt7wNPa24AOXhYGADw&bvm=bv.52434380,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFWc3lUnUhY_CQ_FxaW4n8Mz2VWFg&ust=1380067498186194http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&docid=VmH4TcQ6tJnfjM&tbnid=ee3whiUv6JRF0M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.bibliovault.org/BV.book.epl?ISBN%3D9780817356088&ei=QtdAUt7wNPa24AOXhYGADw&bvm=bv.52434380,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFWc3lUnUhY_CQ_FxaW4n8Mz2VWFg&ust=1380067498186194http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&docid=VmH4TcQ6tJnfjM&tbnid=ee3whiUv6JRF0M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.bibliovault.org/BV.book.epl?ISBN%3D9780817356088&ei=QtdAUt7wNPa24AOXhYGADw&bvm=bv.52434380,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFWc3lUnUhY_CQ_FxaW4n8Mz2VWFg&ust=1380067498186194http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&docid=VmH4TcQ6tJnfjM&tbnid=ee3whiUv6JRF0M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.bibliovault.org/BV.book.epl?ISBN%3D9780817356088&ei=QtdAUt7wNPa24AOXhYGADw&bvm=bv.52434380,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNFWc3lUnUhY_CQ_FxaW4n8Mz2VWFg&ust=1380067498186194


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WW // Strategic Bombing

&o1yo !ay %"%3 "%4)
http://www.onlinemilitaryeducation.org/posts/10-most-devastating-bombing-campaigns-of-wwii/http://www.onlinemilitaryeducation.org/posts/10-most-devastating-bombing-campaigns-of-wwii/


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-resden ."%4)
http://www.onlinemilitaryeducation.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/3.-Dresden.jpg


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August ! 194" #$rosh$ma
http://www.benoa.net/japan/hiroshima/index.html


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#$rosh$ma

Be+ore A+ter
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:AtomicEffects-p7b.jpghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:AtomicEffects-p7a.jpg


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August 9! 194" %agasa&$


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%agasa&$' efore and After
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nagasaki_1945_-_Before_and_after_(adjusted).jpg


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5&he Absolute Weapon6

Bernard Brodie3 The AbsoluteWeapon, "%4(


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First NuclearAge, 1945-90s

"7Bipolarity

balance27-eterrence

vulnerability

87Arms 9ontrol !anaging

rivalry

47'ationality

Second Nuclear Age,1990s to present

"7!ultipolarity

asymmetry27-eterrence

missile de+ense

87Arms 9ontrol coercion

47'ationality


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irst Nuclear Age "%4)%0s

"7Bipolarity

balance

27-eterrence vulnerability

87Arms 9ontrol

!anaging rivalry

47'ationality


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1 $polar$ty

An Arms 'ace Spiral theory

#S and #SS' rough e;uality

Balance o+ poer

&riad

/9B!s

S


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/9B!/ntercontinental Ballistic

!issile


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S


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*aun+h Tube #at+hes on ,Alabama


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Strategic Bombers


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&o Arms 'aces by"%(0s

"7>?enseo?ense

27 >?ensede+ense


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Early AB! Systems

@ohnson Administration:5Sentinel6


22/37

27 -eterrence

Strategies o+ -eterrence

"7Warghting

@: leCible 'esponse NiCon: ptions:

NS-!242

9arter: 9ountervailing Strategy:

*-)% 'eagan: *revailing Strategy:

NS--"8
http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdm-nixon/nsdm_242.pdfhttp://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/pd/pd59.pdfhttp://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdd/nsdd-13.pdfhttp://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdd/nsdd-13.pdfhttp://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/pd/pd59.pdfhttp://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdm-nixon/nsdm_242.pdf


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!/',s!ultiple /ndependently &argeted

'eentry ,ehicles


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Strategies o+ -eterrence

27 Assured -estruction

-eterrence D Second Stri1ecapability

5Balance o+ &error6

Albert Wohlstetter3 oreign A?airs3,ol7 83 No7 2 .@anuary "%)%: 2""284


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ov$et .$rst tr$&e' u++essful' ,/$ns2

, e+ond str$&e

US USSR

#S S d St i1


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#S Second Stri1e9apability

Soviet irst Stri1e

#S Second stri1e

Scenario: Everyone -ies

US USSR


27/37

, and ov$et %u+lear Arsen

als 3M *Mombers laun+hers5arheads laun+hers5arheadslaun+hers5arheads

#SStrategic Nuclear orces

"%)

0

0 0 0 0 4(2 880

190 16 16 76 76 1"1" 7087

190 10"4 1644 " 1""6 790 7779

1980 10"4 6144 "16 "0" 7 7"8

1990 1000 6440 08 "716 6 4486000 ""0 6000 476 74" 7 17

6017 4"0 "00 688 11"6 0 700
http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asphttp://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asphttp://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asphttp://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asphttp://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asp


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, and ov$et %u+lear Arsen

als 3M *Mombers

laun+hers5arheads laun+hers5arheadslaun+hers5arheads

#SS'F'ussian Strategic Nuclear orces

"%)(

0 0 0 0 40 "20

190 6 6 70 70 161 7"4

190 146 146 71 68 1" "8

1980 1778 "76 990 1""8 1" "8

1990 169 8" 908 6900 16 1406

6000 " 7"40 748 1" 116 90

6017 76 10"0 10 64 6 810
http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asphttp://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asphttp://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asphttp://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asphttp://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asp


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our+es'

ullet$n of Atom$+ +$ent$sts%u+lear %oteboo&

%atural /esour+es defense oun+$lAr+h$ve of %u+lear Data
http://bos.sagepub.com/cgi/collection/nuclearnotebookhttp://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asphttp://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asphttp://bos.sagepub.com/cgi/collection/nuclearnotebook


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87 Arms 9ontrol

!anagement o+ the arms race

9ut costs

/ncrease predictability /ncrease transparency

5Essential e;uivalence6


31/37

Strategic Nuclear Weapons&reaties

9old War Era

SA?ensive Arms "%2

AB! &reaty "%2

SA


32/37


End o+ the 9old War

Strategic Arms 'eduction &reaty.S&A'& / "%%"

S&A'& // "%%8


33/37


*ost9old War Era

Strategic >?ensive 'eductions&reaty .S>'& 2002

Ne S&A'& &reaty 20"0


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9ritics o+ Arms 9ontrol

Soviet /9B! Superiority

5Windo o+ ,ulnerability6

#S launchers

arheads

Soviet launchers

arheads

T$tan "4 "4 -1 108 476

M$nuteman

33

4"0 4"0 -18 708 7!080

M$nuteman333

""0 1!"0 -19 770 1!980

Total 1!0"4 6!1"4 Total 4 "!496


35/37

Solutions to Windo o+,ulnerability

NiCon to 'eagan"7 !obile !issiles

!H !ultiple *rotective Shelters

system

S l ti t Wi d +


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Solutions to Windo o+,ulnerability

'eagan to present

27 !issile -e+ense

'eaganIs S-/ speech3 !arch 283 "%$8


37/37

4 /at$onal$ty

&he logic o+ parityFe;uality

&he logic o+ deterrence

&he logic o+ management o+ thearms race

S&'A&EG/9 S&AB/

Documents

391 First Nuclear Age.ppt