STRATEGIC SILVICULTURE PLANNING

INITIATIVES IN BCSTRATEGIC SILVICULTURE PLANNING

INITIATIVES IN BC

Ralph WinterRalph WinterForest Practices BranchForest Practices Branch387-8906387-8906

Objectives

To provide the following overview:

★ Need for silviculture strategies

★ Incremental Silviculture Strategyfor British Columbia

★ Forest Level Analysis forSilviculture Investments

★ Snapshot of progress onmanagement unit strategies

The Need for a Provincial Strategy

★ Ensure government’s stewardship interestsare maintained on Crown land

★ Provide general guidance for incrementalsilviculture investments

★ Provide context for★ management unit strategies★ Stand-level silviculture analyses★ FRBC required RMPs

The Need for a Management Unit Strategy

★ While AACs may be constrained in the shortterm…need to prioritize short, mid- and long-termsilviculture options to mitigate problems(e.g., Nelson Region TSAs)

★ Ensure that TSR base case assumptions areconsidered and appropriately funded

★ completion of backlog NSR★ explicit fertilization programs★ explicit spacing programs

The Need for a Strategy

★ Several past attempts at developingstrategies – never fully completed

★ 1980–1995 – over 1 million ha ofincremental silviculture

★ FRDA I and II audits identified the need

★ FRBC has spent $80–130 million/yr onincremental silviculture

★ 1999 Auditor General’s report re-statedthe need

The Need for a Strategy (cont.)

★ 1995–1996 regions and districts concernedabout lack of provincial direction

★ Sept 1996 – Silviculture Practices Branchcommitted to leading the development –working with Corporate Policy and PlanningBranch, Forest Development and SmallBusiness and others

★ Fall 1996 work plan developed

★ 1997 – L.P. Atherton contracted

Work to Date

With FRBC and MoF funding:

★ Reviewed past and current initiativesfor strategic silviculture analysis

★ Produced concise summary report

★ Six background reports – synthesizingcurrent information from 140 references

Incremental Silviculture StrategyFor British Columbia

(Interim)

Ministry of ForestsProvince of British Columbia

FUNDED BY

Forest Renewal BC

April 15, 1999

Incremental Silviculture Strategy for BC

Key Contents

★ Planning Framework

★ Government’s Goals

★ Guiding Principles

★ Timber Supply and Demand

★ The BC Situation

★ Relating BC Supply to Demand

★ Proposed Strategy

Nelson Forest Region

Cranbrook TSA

Planning Framework – Hierarchy

PROVINCIAL

REGIONAL

MANAGEMENT UNIT

Select strategiesand plans

Conduct environ-mental and stakeholderreviews

Conduct managementunit level analysis

Identify timberand habitatsupply issues

Identify possiblesolutions

Conduct standlevel analysis

Planning Framework – Management Unit

Strategy is Based on Government’s Goals

★ Sustainable resource use

★ Community stability

★ A strong forest sector

Strategy is Based on Key Guiding Principles

BC’s forests are important atall levels – from local to global.

Stewardship and moralobligations to futuregenerations must be met.

Course of action must betaken that minimizes riskand maintains options.

Risk

Options

Supply and Demand – Introduction

★ Can BC’s future timber supply be increased? How?

★ What are the trends that may affect this?

★ If we produce more will there be a demand for it?

★ Will demand be different for different grades or species?

★ Are we likely to get a reasonable return?

Supply and Demand – Global

0

20

40

60

80

100

IndustrialRoundwood

Sawnwood Fibre Furnish Panels

Increase in Global Consumption 1970–1994Percent

Significant increase in consumption in fibre furnish and panels

Supply and Demand – Global (cont.)

0

100

200

300

400

1970 1994 2010

Million tonnes

Non-wood Fibre

Recovered Paper

Wood Pulp

Changes in Composition of Total Fibre Furnish 1970–2010

44% of fibre furnish is from recycled paper and non-wood fibres

Supply and Demand – Global (cont.)

Historic and Forecast Industrial Roundwood Consumption

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

1970 1990 1994 2000 2010

Millions (m3)

World

Developing

Developed

FAO predicts the rate of growth in industrial roundwoodconsumption will slow to 1.2%/year until 2010

Supply and Demand

North America

★ Potentially tight, but not crisis situation

★ Slowly increasing US demand can be met through:★ greater use of hardwoods★ increased imports from Canada★ intensive plantations/fibre farms?

Asia

★ Projected by FAO as fastest growing region

BUT?

Supply and Demand – Technological Developments

★ Blurring of lines in pulp quality = decreasingadvantage for BC

★ Composite wood/engineered wood products increasing

★ Tree improvement, intensive plantations, fibre farms

★ Increasing recovery

★ Woodfibre–plastic composites?

★ New substitutes?

Supply and Demand – Real Log Prices

★ Some say up, some say not

★ Near-term global outlook stable?

★ Perhaps some higher prices in North America

★ Predictions over the length of BC rotations useless

★ Largely irrelevant under a strategy that focuses onreducing risk and maintaining options

BC Situation – Current Forecast

★ Without intervention, futureharvest levels will fall 17%

★ A 17% decline could mean:★ a 5% reduction in

provincial GDP★ 46 000 direct and

indirect jobs lost

★ Quality has declined

Provincial Total (TSAs + TFLs)

0

20

40

60

80

0 5 10 15 20 25Decades from Now

Millions (m3/year)

TSR 1 Provincial AAC – 71

Base Case Harvest Forecast – 58.5

BC Situation – Potential Supply

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 5 10 15 20 25Decades from Now

Millions (m3/yr)

Provincial Total (TSAs + TFLs)

Potential Timber Supply

TSR 1 Base Case Harvest Forecast

TSR 1 Provincial AAC

★ Factor analysis indicates futureharvest levels can be increasedto approximately 75 million m3

★ Needs confirmation bymanagement unit analysis

★ Quality – decline may continue.Long rotation management willhave an upwards effect.

★ Habitat supply?

BC Supply vs Demand – Fibre Log Demand

★ Externally there are plentiful sourcesof cheap fibre

★ BC likely to remain sawlog economy

BC Supply vs Demand – Sawlog Demand

★ Globally, sawnwood has plateaued

★ US growth rate slow but large inabsolute numbers. Production frompublic land in decline but private landhas substantial reserve capacity.

★ Asia?

★ Demand for sawlogs as primary forestproduct likely to continue

BC Supply vs Demand – Premium Log Demand

★ Ongoing debate about prices

★ Some feel technology willfully meet/replace demand

★ Sole reason would be tomaintain options

★ Currently 15% but futuredemand unknown

The Provincial Strategy

★ Developed in the context of principles,goals, demand and supply information

★ A first step – will be refined over time

★ Interim guidance for management unitstrategies and RMPs

★ Defines broad general direction andencourages patterns of activities

★ Assumes in-depth management unitanalyses will be the basis for refinedregional and provincial strategies

Working Targets

WT 1: Minimize interim reduction in timber supplyso that it is not less than 65 million m65 million m33

WT 2: Increase timber supply over the mid-termto a long-term level of 75 million m75 million m33

WT 3: Maintain the production of premium qualitylogs at or above 10%10% of total harvest

Within the context of the guiding principles:

Major Silvicultural Strategies

QQUANTITYUANTITY

★ Increase use of alternative silviculturalsystems, particularly commercial thinning

★ Reduce green-up ages

★ Increase regenerated stand volumes 20%

★ Eliminate NSR

(Other non-silviculture strategies must also beimplemented – e.g., inventories)

Major Silvicultural Strategies (cont.)

IINCREASE NCREASE RREGENERATION EGENERATION VVOLUME OLUME 20%20%★ Substantially increase fertilization program

on suitable stands

★ Accelerate tree improvement program

★ Institute a void management program toensure stand voids do not exceed 10%

★ Intensify forest health management toreduce losses to insects and disease.

Major Silvicultural Strategies (cont.)

QQUALITYUALITY

★ Initiate long rotation quality managementprogram for stands where harvestingmust be delayed

★ Initiate a timber value-added sub-strategy (combinations of spacing,pruning, fertilization)

Management Unit Silviculture Strategies

★ FRBC has allocated $3 million forForest Level Analysis for SilvicultureInvestments

★ Funds development of up to68 management unit strategies

★ Key FRBC performance measure –strategies for every unit by 2001

Three Types of Strategies Funded

Type 1Type 1 uses existing TSR analyses, reports, andinformation to identify issues, opportunitiesand develop strategies

Type 2Type 2 includes in-depth forest level modellingto develop silviculture strategies

Type 3Type 3 develops habitat supply and othernon-timber modelling approaches forfuture Type 2 analyses

Both Type 1 and 2 analyses intended to produce specificharvest level, timber quality and habitat objectives.

Additional Components

★ A broad array of supporting silviculturestrategy initiatives are also funded:

★ habitat supply★ timber supply courses★ problem forest type strategy★ growth and yield model evaluation

Progress on the Development ofType 1 and Type 2 Strategies

Purpose of Type I

★ Help guide the allocation of availablefunding towards the goals of improvingfuture quantity and quality of both habitatand timber supply

★ Interim until Type 2

★ Initial phase of Type 2 (e.g., Strathcona)

Methods

★ Gather available information★ Conduct issues and opportunities analysis

(increase/maintain)★ Propose potential silviculture strategies to influence issues

★ timber quantity★ timber quality★ habitat supply

★ Review potential strategies in 2-day workshop★ Develop draft strategy★ Review and revise★ Develop final draft strategy

Workshop Process

★ Regional and district overview★ Timber supply issues and opportunities★ Review of potential strategies

★ timber quantity★ timber quality★ habitat quantity and quality

★ Development of regimes and regime table★ Use best available growth and yield, silvi-

culture information and stand level models★ Wrap-up

Issues and Opportunities

Sensitivity to Minimum Harvestable Ages

Harvest (’000s m3/year)

0

400

500

600

0 5 10 15 20 25Decades from Now

700

300

200

100

Minimum harvestable ages increased 20 years

Base case

Minimum harvestable ages decreased 20 years

Robson Valley TSA 1994

Issues and Opportunities (cont.)

Sensitivity to Green-up Ages

0

400

500

600

0 5 10 15 20 25Decades from Now

700

300

200

100

Green-up ages decreased 10 years

Green-up ages increased 10 years

Base case

Harvest (’000s m3/year)

Robson Valley TSA 1994

Issues and Opportunities (cont.)

Sensitivity to Regenerated Stand Yield Estimates

0

400

500

600

0 5 10 15 20 25

700

300

200

100Regenerated stand yield estimates decreased by 10%

Regenerated stand yield estimates increased by 10%

Base case

Harvest (’000s m3/year)

Decades from Now Robson Valley TSA 1994

Strategy at a Glance

★ Purpose

★ Major Objectives

★ Working Targets

★ Product Objectives

★ Silvicultural Strategies

★ Silviculture Regimes and Investment Priorities

★ Incremental Silviculture Program

★ Jobs

★ Further Research and Information Needs

Purpose of Type 2

★ Help guide the allocation ofavailable funding towards thegoals of improving futurequantity and quality of bothhabitat and timber supply

Format and Content of Type 2 Strategies

★ Generally follow format and content of a Type 1 strategy

★ More in-depth forest level modelling/analysis

★ Match up existing base case and strip out incrementalsilviculture assumed in base case

★ Explicit evaluations including:★ site productivity adjustments★ tree improvement★ incremental silviculture★ evaluations of density management★ partial cutting

Where to Next?

★ Further Planning★ Regional summaries/strategies★ Confirm/amend interim provincial strategy★ Type II strategies for all areas

★ Implementation★ Implement activities within funding source restrictions★ Pursue funding and additional information needs

Keys to Success

★ TSR 1 – a sense of urgency to addresstimber supply, quality and habitat issues

★ Keenly interested and supportive licensee,district and regional staff

★ Excellent consultants – (Atherton – Cortex)

★ Janet Gagné – FRBC – supporting strategiesand securing dedicated funding

Interest in Strategies

★ Auditor General – supportive

★ FRBC news releases

★ Public Affairs and Timber Supply Branch– falldown, certification and market issues

★ Tree Improvement Program

★ Western Silviculture Contractors’ Association

★ Association of BC Professional Foresters

★ Industry and consulting community

Summary

★ 40 management units have a strategy for timbersupply, quality and habitat underway or completed

★ Good support and team work

★ Within 1.5 years – strategies for everymanagement unit

★ Improved rationale and more strategicsilviculture investment by FRBC

★ New silviculture strategies are thebeginning of the beginning

For More Information

www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/pubssilvstratwww.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/pubssilvstrat

Thank you!Thank you!