Assumptions and Risks Module

This module will guide you through the process of understanding the assumptions and risks associated with your project

Section

6.4

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THIS MODULE INCLUDES:

Contents (Direct links clickable belo[Abstract]w)

Interactive Pages

(i.e. Worksheets) will help you…

What Are Assumptions & Risks?

What are they for?

When should they be done?

Who Should Be Involved?

How to Do Them?

Additional Resources

Determining Assumptions and Risk

Flowchart

Checklist for Assumptions and Risk

If you are interested in gaining a certificate of completion for your study and knowledge of Assumptions and Risk, please complete the Interactive Pages, and turn in completed pages to the DM&E expert at the Washington DC office.

TOOLS IN THIS MODULE

(You can click on the underlined tool to go directly to the location of the tool in this module.)

TOOL 1: Determining Assumptions and Risk Flowchart

TOOL 2: Diagonal Logic

TOOL 3: Checklist for Assumptions and Risk

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What are Assumptions and Risks? Assumptions are the unproven connections between levels in a design hierarchy, theory of change, or the project context. Common assumptions focus on:

How the context will evolve: how change works

Project philosophy or approach, including the strategic advantage of one approach over another

Participation. In a war zone, for example, many projects assume there will be sufficient security to safely access the people or certain locations.

Our understanding of how things work in life. For example, we assume that relationships built by enemies in the safety of a workshop or a structured exchange will enable them to behave differently upon their return to everyday, often-polarised environments. We assume that greater transparency will lead to better governance, rather than to well-publicised corruption. We assume that a ceasefire opens space for negotiations rather than serving as a time for restocking ammunition and reinforcing military positions.

Within any theory of change (see Theory of Change module) there are two assumptions: how change works, and the strategic advantage of the chosen theory over other theories for the context. It is important to be able to clearly identify and enunciate these assumptions and their associated risks in your project proposal. The Common Ground Approach and Tool Documents (available here) are a good place to start conceptualising SFCG assumptions on specific topics and strategies with which we work.

Risk is the “effect of uncertainty on objectives.”1 Within the logic framework

approach to project design, however, risk is formulated as the negative assumptions

behind, or the facts of, the project including the interaction between context

conditions and the project. In other words, risks in logic frameworks are the potential

logical barriers to the achievement of the objectives for each level in the design

hierarchy.

1 International Organisation for Standardisation, Risk management—Principles and guidelines on

implementation, Draft, ISO 31000:2009, accessed 2 February 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/23591510/ISO-31000-Risk-Management-Manual-Eng-Fra quoted in Grant Purdy, “ISO 31000:2009—Settin a New Standard for Risk Management,” Risk Analysis, Vol. 30, No. 6, 2010, p. 882, accessed 02 February 2011, http://www.theiia.org/download.cfm?file=42883.

Tip: Within the logframe context, risks and assumptions are two sides of the same coin: risks are framed as potential negatives, while assumptions are framed positively.

Example Following the example of the justice system in Timor-Leste, the project assumes that once public knowledge, perceptions and attitudes towards the justice system have been changed (Objective 1) the Timorese will not only know how to access that system, but that the system will be capable of handling increased caseloads.

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Risk is the “effect of uncertainty on objectives.”2 Within the logic framework approach to project design, however, risk is formulated as the negative assumptions behind, or the facts of, the project including the interaction between context conditions and the project. In other words, risks in logic frameworks are the potential logical barriers to the achievement of the objectives for each level in the design hierarchy.

Wha What are they for?

It is important to identify and analyse the core assumptions behind your project to ensure the choices made can be logically justified. Being aware of assumptions allows you to identify opportunities for integrated programming to spark synergy and leverage greater results. Identifying key assumptions is also important for determining whether your project is viable (see Determining Assumptions and Risk flowchart under “How to Do Them?”). Any project has the potential to create unwanted consequences and to be negatively affected by internal and external factors. Identifying those risk factors and consequences before the project starts and allowing time to make deliberate decisions about the best way to move forward is critical. As interveners in a conflict it is our obligation to ensure that we first Do No Harm (see here) in our intervention, directly or indirectly. Understanding the potential risks involved in a project is therefore critical to developing a project that does not exacerbate local conditions, and hopefully contributes to the betterment of the context.

2 International Organisation for Standardisation, Risk management—Principles and guidelines on

implementation, Draft, ISO 31000:2009, accessed 2 February 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/23591510/ISO-31000-Risk-Management-Manual-Eng-Fra quoted in Grant Purdy, “ISO 31000:2009—Setting a New Standard for Risk Management,” Risk Analysis, Vol. 30, No. 6, 2010, p. 882, accessed 02 February 2011, http://www.theiia.org/download.cfm?file=42883.

Example There are two primary risks associated with the assumption above. First, is that once Timorese are willing to engage the justice system, they may not know where or how to do it. Therefore another project objective was developed to mitigate this risk: (2) Support the creation of referral pathways for marginalised groups to access legal advice and remedies (through training of mediators and paralegals), thereby promoting new behaviour when Timorese face legal problems. Second, the justice system, including CSOs, may not be able to handle such an increase in caseloads. A third objective was developed to mitigate this risk: (3) To enhance the capacity and sustainability of Timorese CSOs to play a more active role in justice, coordination, and peacebuilding processes, and to manage these functions in the long-term without external assistance.

Tip: Once a key risk associated with a core assumption has been identified, mitigate that risk by incorporating new elements in your project design: add or change an objective or activity so that the likelihood of that risk is reduced.

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When should they be done?

It is important to identify and analyse assumptions early in the design process, ideally in conjunction with the creation of the levels of the design hierarchy (see Goals & Objectives module, p. 2) and certainly before developing indicators and the means of verification. Early analysis of assumptions helps to guide programme design and helps us avoid becoming locked into activities and indicators that may take us off course. It is important to identify risks early in the design process. Some risks may be so unacceptable that they lead to a “no go” decision or require adding or changing the activities or approach. Manageable risks can be mitigated by planning to address them. Project designs should include mitigating plans for risks likely to occur. It is important to monitor the ongoing context within which the project is implemented (political, economic, natural events, etc.) for any changes which may require mitigation plans to be implemented. Assumptions and assessments relating to the baseline (see Baseline Assessment module), conflict (see Conflict Assessment module) and risks (see Risk Assessment module), should inform the design phase. For more on risks, see the “How To Do Them” section.

Who should be involved?

Keep in mind that the following varies by project, context, and personnel:

Tip: It is important to identify and determine how to test or flesh out assumptions before beginning to work on indicators and other parts of the monitoring and evaluation plan (see M&E Plan module).

Tip: Tip: Not all risks and assumptions can be addressed in the design stage, but they should be written into a log frame for tracking and early warning purposes.

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Project manager, DME Coordinator and staff and relevant stakeholders should all agree on the objectives for the project. The DME Specialist in the DC office can be used as a resource or facilitator for the initial discussions and review of chosen objectives.

How to do them?

When we begin to look at assumptions we quickly become swamped. Which assumptions, and their associated risks, matter the most? The Determining Assumptions and Risks flow chart below can help in determining which assumptions and risks to include in the design. Generally speaking we need to consider those assumptions and risks that could possibly prevent or block a connection between one level in the design and another level in the design. A good starting point is to identify key assumptions with a certain level of the design hierarchy, for example, one of your activities.

TOOL 1: Determining Assumptions and Risk Flowchart

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How likely is it that the risk

will prevent the program from advancing to

the next level in the design

framework?

Possible Very likely

Include in the Log frame

Unlikely

Do not include In the Log

frame

Is it possible to redesign the

program in a way that reduces the likelihood Of

the Assumption?

yes

no Program is not Technically viable

Redesign the program

Assessing

Assumptions

TOOL 2: Diagonal Logic

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Once you have identified the key assumptions and risks associated with each level in the design hierarchy, use diagonal logic between columns 1 and 4 in the logframe, beginning with activities and progressing upwards, to ensure logical progression of the hierarchy

Example: Logframe Diagonal Logic

Narrative Indicators Means of Verification

Assumptions and Risks

Goal To achieve equal and timely access to justice for men, women and children by building the capacity of the justice sector in Timor-Leste

Assumption: The legal system (police and courts) will have a vested interest to ensure timely and equal access. Risk: Corruption impedes progress.

Objective 1 To increase public knowledge and change public perceptions and attitudes regarding the workings of the Timorese judicial system

Assumption: Marginalised and vulnerable groups experience a greater sense of ownership of and belonging to a just Timorese society

Outputs X radio talk shows produced and distributed

Assumption: Radio retains its overall function and dominance in Timorese media and the talk shows directly relate to marginalised/vulnerable groups’ experiences

Activities Produce and distribute interactive radio talk shows

Assumption/risk: Availability of necessary technology.

Then we will produce and distribute X radio talk shows. If we do this...

If we produce and distribute interactive radio talk shows...

And necessary technology is available...

And radio retains its overall function and dominance in Timorese media, and the talk shows directly relate to

Then the public will have changed perceptions and attitudes towards and knowledge of the Timorese

And marginalised and vulnerable groups experience a greater sense of ownership of, and belonging to a just Timorese society...

Then the justice sector will have increased capacity and men, women and children

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Narrative Indicators Assumptions and Risks

Goal To achieve equal and timely access to justice for men, women and children by building the capacity of the justice sector in Timor-Leste

% of Timorese citizens in targeted communities demonstrate knowledge of judicial issues and the use of non-adversarial approaches and cooperative solutions

Assumption: The legal system (police and courts) will have a vested interest to ensure timely and equal access. Risk: Corruption impedes progress.

Objective 1 To increase public knowledge and change public perceptions and attitudes regarding the workings of the Timorese judicial system

Percentage of interviewed citizens who report listening to the radio drama; percentage of interviewed citizens who can name three messages from the radio drama and explain why they are key

Assumption: Marginalised and vulnerable groups experience a greater sense of ownership of and belonging to a just Timorese society

Outputs X radio talk shows produced and distributed

Number of radio drama episodes produced and distributed

Assumption: Radio retains its overall function and dominance in Timorese media and the talk shows directly relate to marginalised/vulnerable groups’ experiences

Activities Produce and distribute interactive radio talk shows

Number of shows produced; number of callers; % of callers addressing other callers

Assumption/risk: Availability of necessary technology.

1. Have all the assumptions and risks been identified? a. Stakeholder analysis? b. Problem trees, etc?

2. Are the risks specific? Or too general? 3. Are the risks/assumptions at the right level? 4. Does the logic work?

a. Diagonal logic between Columns 1 and 4 If Then And

b. Necessary and sufficient? 5. Where risks are manageable, have they been managed?

a. Where possible, have they been turned into Activities and Outputs, i.e., moved into Column 1?

6. What are the pre-conditions? 7. Should the activity proceed in view of the remaining assumptions and risks?

Risk Management Strategic risk management is a central part of any organisation or project. Its focus is the assessment of significant risks and the implementation of suitable responses in a continuous process; “it increases the probability of success and reduces both the probability of failure and the level of uncertainty associated with achieving the objectives of the organisation [or project].”3 For further information on risk assessment and management strategies, see Risk Assessment module.

3 The Association of Insurance and Risk Managers, The Public Risk Management Association, and The

Institute of Risk Management, “A Structured Approach to Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) and the requirements of ISO 31000,” 2010, accessed 1 December 2010, http://www.theirm.org/documents/SARM_FINAL.pdf.

TOOL 3: Checklist for Assumptions and Risk

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Additional Resources The following resources are particularly good for the identification of Assumptions and Risks. An overall guide to resources for project design from the SFCG library is available here. Anne J. Atkinson and Carolyne Ashton, Planning for Results: The Safe and Drug-Free

Schools and Community Program Planning and Evaluation Handbook (Richmond: Virginia Department of Education, 2002), accessed 24 September 2010, http://www.safeanddrugfreeva.org/planningforresults.pdf.

The Association of Insurance and Risk Managers, The Public Risk Management

Association, and The Institute of Risk Management, “A Structured Approach to Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) and the requirements of ISO 31000,” 2010, accessed 1 December 2010, http://www.theirm.org/documents/SARM_FINAL.pdf.

Cheyanne Church and Mark M. Rogers, Designing for Results: Integrating Monitoring

and Evaluation in Conflict Transformation Programs Part 1 (Washington DC: Search for Common Ground, 2006), accessed 24 September 2010, http://www.sfcg.org/programmes/ilr/ilt_manualpage.html.

Department for International Development, Log Frame Guidelines (London: DFID, 2005)

accessed 24 September 2010, https://galaxy.sfcg.org/sfcg/library/attach/DFID%20LogFrame%20Guidelines.doc

James A. Dewar, Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises

(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002), accessed 30 September 2010, https://galaxy.sfcg.org/sfcg/library/attach/Dewer%2C%20James%20%2D%20Assumption%20Based%20Planning.pdf.