SSP 2011 IN Conference

Globalization Trends

About Simba

• Founded in 1989 (and is not named after the lion)• Publisher of 5 industry newsletters:

Professional Content Report, Book Publishing Report, Educational Marketer, Electronic Education Report Yellow Pages & Directory Report

• Simba’s Professional Publishing Group produces Global STM Market Forecast Global Professional Publishing Business Information Markets

• Research and Advisor Services to almost all of the top publishers in STM and Educational Publishing

What’s in the mix?

Publishing activities we track include:

• Books• Journals• Databases• Abstract & Indexing Services• Online Services• Newsletters• Directories• Looseleafs

STM Market by Region 2006

45%

30%

20%

5%

STM North AmericaSTM EuropeSTM AsiaSTM ROW

STM Market by Region 2015

45%

28%

22%

5%

STM North AmericaSTM EuropeSTM AsiaSTM ROW

STM Market Growth by Region 2007-2015

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Rev

enu

e G

row

th

STM North America

STM Europe

STM Asia

STM ROW

STM Regional Book Growth 2007-2011

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Rev

enu

e G

row

th

Books NA

Books Europe

Books Asia

Books ROW

STM Regional Journal Growth 2007-2011

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Rev

enu

e G

row

th

Journals NA

Journals Europe

Journals Asia

Journals ROW

BRIC STM Growth vs. Total Market 2007-2015

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Market

China

Russia

Brazil

India

Local Language Sales by Region 2006-2015

$-

$500.00

$1,000.00

$1,500.00

$2,000.00

$2,500.00

$3,000.00

$3,500.00

$4,000.00

$4,500.00

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ in

mill

ion

s

STM Europe Local

STM Asia Local

STM ROW Local

But English is still the language of research…

STM English

73%

STM Local27%

Publication Authorship:Top 10 Countries 1999-2003

26%

8%

7%7%5%4%

4%3%

3%3%

30%

United StatesJapanUnited KingdomGermanyFranceChinaItalyCanadaRussiaSpainOther

Publication Authorship:Top 10 Countries 2004-2008

21%

10%

7%

6%6%4%4%3%

3%2%

34%

United StatesChinaUnited KingdomJapanGermanyFranceCanadaItalySpainIndiaOther

Publication Authorship:Winners and Losers 1999-2008

Country Percentage Point Change

United States -5%

China +6%

Countries Beyond the Top 10 +4%

Japan -2%

Russia -2%

India +1%

Germany, France, Italy -1%

Payoff: China’s % share of research

05

10152025

1999-20032004-08

Quality • • • • •

00.5

11.5

2

% Papers Top One Per CentTotal Papers 1996-2006 per ISI Science Watch May/June 2007

BRIC Higher Education Enrollment Rates

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1970 1985 2001 2003

Brazil

China

India

Russia

Open Access is growing worldwide…

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Growth of Open Access Titles vs. Growth of All Journals, 2006-2010

Open Access as a % of Ulrich TotalDirectory of Open Access JournalsUlrich Serials Total Journal Count

But the share is small

• Ulrich’s Serials database currently lists more than 72,682 active academic journals worldwide. Based on that number, titles listed in the Directory of Open Access Journals represent about 8.2% of all journals.

• Open Access proponents often cite the lack of access in developing countries as a prime reason for changing the traditional scholarly publishing model.

• Deposit mandates and other policies intended to drive more free access are here to stay, so Open Access will be a factor to contend with.

Professional content ripe for piracy

$0.00$200,000.00$400,000.00$600,000.00$800,000.00

$1,000,000.00$1,200,000.00$1,400,000.00$1,600,000.00$1,800,000.00

Business & Investing

Professional & Technical

Science Reference

Estimated Sales Per Title Lost to Piracy in 2010, by Professional Segment