33988_countryassessmentreportphilippines[1]

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COUNTRY

ASSESSMENT

REPORT

FOR

THE PHILIPPINES

Strengthening of

Hydrometeorological Services

in Southeast Asia


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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This Country Assessment Report for the Philippines is part of a study that aimed to strengthen the hydro-

meteorological services in Southeast Asia. The production was a collaborative effort of the World Bank, the

United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), the National Hydrological and Meteorological

Services (NHMS) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) with financial support from the Global

Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR).

The study investigated the capacity of the NHMS of five ASEAN Member States, namely Lao PDR,

Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Viet Nam - to respond to the increasing demands for improved

meteorological and hydrological information by various socio-economic sectors. Taking a regional approach,

it recommended investment plans to improve the NHMS with the ultimate goal for reducing losses due to

natural hazard-induced disasters, sustainable economic growth and abilities of the countries to respond to

climate change.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) supported

the country assessment and coordinated the participation of various departments, including the National

Irrigation Administration, National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), the Department of Agriculture,

the Forest and Environment Management Bureaus, the National Water Resources Board and private sector,

among others.

The Disaster Risk Reduction Division of the WMO provided technical inputs and facilitated peer review of the

draft reports, which have resulted in significant quality improvements.

A national consultation was organized by PAGASA to review the final draft report. The PAGASA, National

Grid Corporation of the Philippines and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) provided comments

for improving the report. WMO presented opportunities for regional cooperation at the national consultation.


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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1 THE PHILIPPINES IN A NUTSHELL 14

1.1 General description 14 1.2 Economic overview 15

1.3 Climate 17

1.4 Disaster Risk Profile 18

1.5 Institutional and Planning Context (Governance) 19

1.5.1 Science and technology 21

1.5.2 Disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM) 21

1.5.3 Climate Change 22

2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 24

2.1 Weather and climate-dependent economic sectors 24

2.2 Methodology for computing socio-economic benefits 25

2.3 Results and analysis 25

2.4 Summary of findings 34

3 USER NEEDS ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND INFORMATION 35

3.1 Agriculture 35

3.2 Environmental protection and forest management 36

3.2.1 Regional Pollution 37

3.2.2 Accidental release/spill of hazardous substances 37

3.3 Water resources 37

3.4 Energy production and distribution 38

3.5 Transport 39

3.5.1 Land 39 3.5.2 Maritime 39

3.5.3 Aviation 39

3.6 Construction sector 40

3.7 Land use and planning 40

3.8 Recreation and Tourism 40

3.9 Health 40

3.10 Insurance 41

3.11 Disaster reduction 41

3.12 Military 43

3.13 Climate change 43

3.14 Media 46

4 THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES

IN THE PHILIPPINES IN A NUTSHELL 47

4.1 Historical overview and Legal basis 47

4.2. Office location 47

4.3 Organizational structure 47

4.4 Mission and vision 49

4.5 Annual report 50

4.6 Financial resources 50

4.7 Human resources 51


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4.8 Training Programmes 51

4.9 Visibility of PAGASA 52

4.10 International membership and networking 52

4.11 Cooperation with other providers of hydrometeorological services in the Philippines 52

5 CURRENT SERVICES OF NMHS 54

5.1 Weather services 55

5.1.1 Processing and visualization tools 55

5.1.2 Accuracy of forecasts 55 5.1.3 Users of weather, flood and climate information and forecasts 56

5.1.4 Needs for weather forecasts and real-time meteorological data 56

5.2 Early warning system 56

5.3 Climatological and agrometeorological services 57

5.4 Hydrological services 59

5.5 Marine services 62

5.6 Environmental services 62

5.6.1 Water quality 62

5.6.2 Air quality 62

5.7 R&D based expert services 62

5.8 Information services 63 5.9 Library services 63

5.10 Training services 64

5.11 Internet 64

5.12 Other agencies providing hydrometeorological services 65

6 PAGASAS NETWORK OF OBSERVING STATIONS 66

6.1 Surface network 66

6.1.1 Synoptic stations 66

6.1.2 Climatological stations 67

6.1.3 Marine observations 67

6.1.4 Hydrological stations 67

6.1.5 Agro-meteorological observations 67

6.1.6 Ozone observations 67

6.2 Remote sensing observations 67

6.2.1 Upper air observations 67

6.2.2 Radars 68

6.2.3 Lightning observation 68

6.2.4 Satellite observation 69

7 MAINTENANCE, CALIBRATION & MANUFACTURING OF MONITORING FACILITIES 70

7.1 Meteorological observations 70

7.2 Hydrological observations 71

8 NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) 72 8.1 Operational models 72

8.2 Verification of NWPs 74

9 INFORMATION COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY (ICT) 75

9.1 Communication facilities 75


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9.2 IT infrastructure 76

9.3 Data management 78

9.3.1 Database and archives 78

9.3.2 Quality monitoring of collected data 79

9.4 IT Personnel 79

9.5 Need to improve communication system and data management 80

10 NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND DATA SHARING 81

10.1 National 81 10.2 International 82

11 DEVELOPMENT PLANS PROPOSED BY PAGASA 85

12 SUMMARY 90

13 RECOMMENDATIONS TO STRENGTHEN THE METEOROLOGICAL AND

HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES OF PAGASA 94

14 PROJECT PROPOSAL 97

14.1 Regional cooperation 97

14.2 ICT and Data management 97

14.3 Meteorological observation 97

14.4 Hydrological stations 97

14.5 Maritime observation network 98

14.6 Upper air stations 98

14.7 Weather radars network 98

14.8 Software tool for visualizing and editing meteorological data 98

14.9 Lightning detection system 91

14.10 Research and development 98

14.11 Training 99

People Met During the Mission 101

References 102

A systematic Framework for Presentation of the Analysis of Meteorological and Hydrological Services 104


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Figure 1. Schematic of linkages of Meteorological Services with EWS stakeholders

Figure 1.1 Location map of the Philippines

Figure 1.2 Climate of the Philippines based on Modified Coronas classification (Source: Climatological and

Agro-meteorological Division, PAGASA)

Figure 2. PAGASA data/information flow diagram (Source: Engineering Technical Services Division, PAGASA).

Figure 3.1 PAGASA and its environment

Figure 3.2 Projected changes in seasonal mean rainfall (%) (Source: Climatological and Agro-meteorological

Division (CAD), PAGASA).

Figure 3.3 Projected changes in seasonal mean temperature (oC)

Figure 4.1 Organizational structure of PAGASA (Source: PAGASA, as approved by the Department of

Budget and Management).Figure 5.1 Major river basins in the Philippines

Figure 5.2 Website of the PAGASAs Climatology and Agrometeorology Division.

Figure 5.3 Location of major river basins (left) and basins equipped with

telemetered flood early warning systems (right)

Figure 5.4 Example of daily status of monitored reservoirs on the PAGASA webpage.

Figure 5.5 Hazard and vulnerability maps

Figure 5.6 PAGASA website

Figure 6.1 Doppler radar network showing existing and under implementation

Figure 8.1 Sample outputs of RIMES (Source: Hydrometeorological Division, PAGASA).

Figure 8.2 AWRF output of the iHPC (Source: Hydrometeorological Division, PAGASA).

Figure 9.1 PICWIN project (Source: PAGASA Investment Portfolio).

Figure 9.2 Cellular based Meteorological Telecommunication of PICWIN (Source: Hydrometeorological

Division, PAGASA).

Figure 9.3 PAGASA ISP Network (Source: PAGASA).

Figure 10.1 PAGASAs data/information flow (Source: Engineering Technical Services Division, PAGASA)

Figure 10.1 PAGASAs data/information flow (Source: Engineering Technical Services Division, PAGASA).

Figure 10.2 Schematic overview of Global Telecommunication System

Figure 10.3 Multiprotocol label switching.

Figure 10.4 TDCF migration matrix

FIGURES


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Table 1.1 Disastrous tropical cyclones s in terms of damage

Table 2.1 Main economic sectors and weather dependent sectors in national economy, Philippines

(% of GDP at 1985 constant prices excluding taxes, i.e. % of gross value added, GVA)

Table 2.2 Potential direct impacts of weather and climate-related natural disasters on different economic

and social sectors in the Philippines.

Table 2.3 Selected statistics related to weather and climate-related disasters in the Philippines, 1990 to 2009

Table 2.4 Actual and estimated economic value of damages due to weather and climate-related natural

disasters in the Philippines, 1990-2009 (million US dollars).

Table 2.5 Estimated 10% reduction in the socio-economic damages, or the socio-economic benefits due

to improvements in NMHS in the Philippines, 2010-2029 (million US dollars)

Table 2.6 Undiscounted and discounted operating and maintenance costs of improvements in NMHSin the Philippines, 2010-2029 (million US dollars)

Table 2.7 Options, costs, discounted total benefits, discounted net benefits and cost-benefit ratios for

improvements in NMHS in the Philippines, 2010-2029

Table 2.8 Annual statistics of disasters that occurred and persons affected in the Philippines from 1990-2009

Table 2.9 Estimated values of economic damages on property due to weather and climate-related

natural disasters in the Philippines, 1990-2009 (in million US dollars)

Table 2.10 Estimated values of economic damages due to natural disasters in the agriculture sector

of the Philippines, 2004-2008 (in thousand US dollars)

Table 2.11 Number of and physical damages due to accidents in the transport sector of the Philippines, 1990-2009

Table 3.1 Awareness on, usefulness and reliability of PAGASAs climate information products

Table 4.1 Annual budget of PAGASA

Table 4.2 Distribution of PAGASA personnel according to educational levels

Table 5.1 PAGASAs major products and services

Table 5.2 Types of forecast issued by PAGASA

Table 6.1 Observation network of PAGASA

Table 8.1 Description of Numerical Weather Prediction models

Table 9.1 Communication facilities for transmission, reception and exchange of data and products

Table 9.2 Inventory of Archived Data in paper form at CDS

Table 9.3 Inventory of digitized climatic dataTable 11.1 Locally funded projects of PAGASA

Table 11.2 Foreign-assisted projects.

Table 12.1 Institutional capacities, gaps and needs of PAGASA

Table 12.2 Evaluation of level of attainment of PAGASA

Table 13.1 Desired results from strategies of PAGASA.

Table 14.1 Distribution of costs of the 5-year project for strengthening PAGASA considering (A)

Stand-alone and (B) Regional system

TABLES


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AADMER ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Man

agement and Emergency Response

ADB Asian Development Bank

ADPC Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre

ACIAR Australian Center for International

Agricultural Research

AFP Armed Forces of the Philippines

APCC APEC Climate Center

APCN Asia Pacific Climate Network

ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations

AusAID Australian Agency for International

Development

BCA Benefit-Cost Analysis

CBFEWS Community based flood early warning

systemCCA Climate change adaptation

CCC Climate Change Commission

CLIMPS Climate Information, Monitoring and

Prediction Section

COST ASEAN Committee on Science and

Technology

CSCAND Collective Strengthening of

Community Awareness to Natural

Disasters

DEWMS Drought Early Warning and

Monitoring System

DOST Department of Science and

Technology

DRR Disaster Risk Reduction

DRRM Disaster risk reduction and

management

DWD Deutscher Wetterdienst (German

national meteorological service)

ECMWF European Center for Medium Range

Weather Forecasting

EWS Early Warning SystemGDP Gross Domestic Product

GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction

and Recovery

GTS Global Telecommunication System

HFA Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization

ICTP International Center for Theoretical

Physics

IOC International Oceanographic

Commission

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ITAP Typhoon Action Plan

IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management

JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency

LGU Local Government Unit

NCCAP National Climate Change Action Plan

NDRRMC National Disaster Risk Reduction and

Management Council

NDRRMP National Disaster Risk Reduction

Management Plan

NGCP National Grid Corporation of the

Philippines

NMHS National Meteorology and Hydrology

Services

NOAH National Operational Assessment of HazardsNSCCC National Steering Committee on

Climate Change

NWP Numerical Weather Prediction

OCD Office of Civil Defense

PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and

Astronomical Services Administration

PDP Philippine Development Plan 2011-2016

PDRF Philippine Disaster Reconstruction

Foundation

PHIVOLCS Philippine Institute of Volcanology

and Seismology

PCIC Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation

RIMES Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early

Warning System for Africa and Asia

RWS Rainfall Warning System

SNPRC Special National Public Reconstruction

Commission

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention

on Climate Change

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNESCAP United Nations Economic-SocialCommission for Asia Pacific

UNESCO United Nations Education, Science and

Culture Organization

USAID United States Agency for International

Development

USTDA U.S. Trade and Development Agency

WB The World Bank

WIS WMO Information System

WMO World Meteorological Organization

ACRONYMS


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

All human activities are affected by weather and

climate.The various socio-economic sectors in the

Philippines are beginning to appreciate the valueof hydrometeorological services due to the serious

impacts of recent weather and climate events on

their activities and business operations. The frequent

occurrence and increasing severity of extreme

weather and climate events in the country are seen

as indications of a changing climate. As climate

change progresses with time, the impacts will

exacerbate and will affect all sectors in

unprecedented ways, particularly in areas

where water is a limited resource. On the other

hand, tropical cyclones can bring extreme rainfall

resulting to catastrophic flooding. The attendant

weather and climate extremes resulting to floods

and droughts can considerably decrease agricultural

The role of hydro-meteorological services

productivity. Accelerated sea level rise due to global

warming will expose more people to the risk of

coastal flooding and also increase exposure tovector-borne infectious diseases that threaten human

health. Moreover, tourism which is an important

source of income in many countries will experience

severe disruption due to sea level rise and frequent

occurrence of extreme weather and climate events

associated with climate change.

As the impacts of climate change continue to

accelerate due to global anthropogenic climate

change, the National Meteorological and Hydrological

Services (NMHSs) will be faced with the increasing

challenges and demands of providing more accurate,

timely and useful forecasts, products and information.

The core aspects of support that NMHSs provide

to disaster risk reduction (DRR) agencies and early

warning system (EWS) stakeholders are shown in

Figure 1.

Source: Golnaraghi, [email protected]

Figure 1. Schematic of linkages of Meteorological Services with EWS stakeholders

To achieve or address such demand, it is necessary and urgent to put in place or to enhance the very basic

requirements for an NMHS to function effectively according to the capacity of NMHS, as follows:


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1) adequate networks to monitor hydrometeorological parameters; 2) a robust communication system for data

transmission,dissemination of forecasts and sharing of information; 3) high speed computing system for data

assimilation and numerical weather prediction; 4) adequately trained human resource and 5) a more interactive

approach with users of weather and climate information. The trans-boundary nature of weather-causing

phenomena would require collaboration among NMHSs in the region. Hence, there is now an urgent need to

enhance regional cooperation and data sharing which is currently being undertaken by the World Meteorological

Organization (WMO) through its WMO Information System (WIS).

Assessment of hydrometeorological

services in the Philippines

The recent occurrences of floods associated with

tropical cyclones, flash floods and the droughts

caused by the El Nio phenomenon have greatly

improved the visibility of the Philippine Atmospheric,

Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

(PAGASA), the Philippine NMHS. It is also one ofthe main goals of the agency to educate the media

and conduct more frequent press briefings during

the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Philippines.

Although the last few decades were marked by

widespread disasters in the Philippines that are

mostly caused by hydrometeorological hazards, the

much needed support for upgrading the services of

PAGASA came piecemeal. It was only in 2004 after the

occurrence of a series of tropical cyclones resultingto massive floods and landslides that awareness in

the highest level of government was heightened; this

triggered a paradigm shift in disaster management

from relief and response to preparedness and

mitigation in the Philippines. It also brought to the

forefront the value of a robust early warning system

in support of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), thus

paving the way to provide for the modernization of the

hydrometeorological observing facilities of PAGASA.

To further strengthen the countrys preparednessagainst meteorological and climate related hazards,

the agency made a commitment in line with the

Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building

the Resilience of Nations and Communities Against

Disasters (HFA), with the expected outcome of

the substantial reduction of disaster losses, in lives

as well as the social, economic and environmental

assets of communities and countries.

Currently, the need for accurate and more frequent

updates on severe weather bulletins for tropical

cyclones is being addressed by PAGASA through its

automation program. In addition, short-term rainfall

forecast for flash flood prone areas is also sought

by emergency managers for timely evacuation

of threatened communities. This will be addressed

upon the completion of the radar program being

implemented by PAGASA. This will also benefit theother socio-economic sectors such as aviation, land

transport, construction, and industry. Moreover,

the provision of tailor made forecast for individual

sectors has already started in the agricultural

sector with the provision of farm weather forecasts,

climate outlooks, and related services.

There were two important developments that unfolded

from the series of disasters in the Philippines over

the past decade. First, there is a realization in allsectors of the importance of meteorological and hy-

drological services; and second, the need to share

data and other information to other NMHSs in the

region. A positive outcome of the 2004 events in

the municipalities of Real, Infanta and Nakar, Qu-

ezon province (referred to as REINA) was the es-

tablishment of a mechanism for public-private

partnership in the reconstruction of devastated

communities with the issuance of an executive order

by the Office of the President.

With the upgrading of some PAGASAs facilities, the

needs of the different sectors for more accurate,

timely and effective forecasts can be partly addressed

and will redound to increasing the value of the agen-

cys forecast products. The PAGASA is also making

efforts to commercialize some of its specialized

products to private companies and other organizations

in the private sector, such as aviation, shipping, and

others.


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National setup for production of

hydrometeorological services in

the Philippines

The PAGASA is the duly mandated agency to

provide weather, climate, agro-meteorological, and

hydrological services in the Philippines for public

safety and in support of economic development.

It also disseminates official time service as well as

provides basic astronomical services in the country.

PAGASA operates and maintains about 98% of all

hydrometeorological observation networks in the

country. These are used for hydrometeorological

monitoring, forecasting, and warning. The rest are

operated by other government agencies and pri-

vate organizations. It also has the longest histori-

cal record of hydrometeorological observations in

the country. However, there are many years of data

that were recorded during the pre-war era that need

to be rescued and these can be used in climate

related assessments and studies. In addition, it is

also beneficial if hydrometeorological data from

other government agencies and private organiza-

tions can also be accessed.

The operation centres for weather, climate, and

hydrology are within the PAGASA Headquarters

premises while the aviation meteorological service

offices are located in major airports in the country.

All official forecasts, warnings, advisories, outlooks,

and press releases on severe weather and extreme

events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts/

dry spell, and El Nio/La Nia are issued by theheadquarters.

As the NMHS provider in the Philippines, PAGASA

has a major role in DRR efforts in the country,

contributing to efficient conduct of activities and op-

timal production in various socio-economic sectors.

Capacity development of PAGASA will benefit the

country especially in the context of emerging needs

of vital socio-economic sectors due to climate

change and environmental stress. PAGASAs

updated strategic plan addresses its capacity de-

velopment needs in line with the WMO Regional

Association V (RA V) Strategic Plan 2012-2015 which

involves production of accurate, timely and reliable

forecasts and warnings; improvement of delivery

of weather, climate, water and related information

and services; provision of scientific and technical

support to decision makers such as climate change

projection, and others. The agency also has adopted

the PAGASA Onwards 2020 (Long-term Plan) and

the R&D Operations and Services Framework.

The Investment Portfolio is regularly updated. All

proposed programs are in consonance with the

National Science and Technology Plan (NSTP).

State of affairs of the PAGASA

The PAGASA considers its workforce as its most

important resource. The agency has a pool of

technical and administrative support personnel. It

is also hiring young and qualified new graduates

to enhance its ageing work force and implements

a regular training program to address the continu-

ous migration of experienced forecasters to privatecompanies abroad which provide much higher

salaries and benefits. As of December 2011, the

PAGASA has a total of 873 staff, with 193 in the

administrative support group, 82 engaged in

research and development (R&D), 584 involved in

operations and services, and 11 engaged in the

education and training program. There are 11

holders of PhD, 50 of MSc, four (4) of Diploma in

Meteorology, one (1) of Diploma in Space Science

and 16 have taken up some postgraduate units.

The Rationalization Program of PAGASA was ap-

proved in October 2008 and is currently being

implemented to bring PAGASAs services to the

countryside through the establishment of five (5)

Regional Service Divisions.

Its budget allocation from the government has

increased several times over the last few years


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for the upgrading of its facilities and equipment in

order to meet the growing needs of the different

sectors for accurate and reliable forecasting and

early warning services. Currently, the PAGASA

is implementing a modernization program which

includes the establishment of 14 Doppler radars,

more than 150 automatic weather stations (AWS),

100 automatic rain gauges (ARG), two (2) Avia-

tion Weather Observing Systems (AWOS), two (2)

marine meteorological buoys, one (1) wind profiler,

six (6) upper air stations, and forecast automation.

The salient features of PAGASAs modernization

are :

Development of a three (3)-year moderniza-

tion plan;

Acquisition of additional needed state-of-the-

art equipment and instruments, machines,

computers and other facilities to improve

capabilities in providing timely and reliable

forecasting warning services, and information

for agriculture, transportation and other

industries across the country;

Manpower training and human resources

development;

Strengthening of Regional Weather Services

Centers at strategic areas in the country;

Cultivation of greater awareness by the

public of the weather system through educa-

tional projects and programs.

PAGASA personnel who are engaged in opera-

tional activities render uninterrupted services on

24/7/365 basis. The Weather and Flood Forecasting

Center (WFFC) and the PAGASA Central Officewhich are both located in Quezon City were estab-

lished in 1990 and 2002, respectively and provide

suitable workplace for the PAGASA staff to carry out

their mandated tasks. The WFFC also serves as the

venue for press conferences during the occurrence

of tropical cyclones in the country. A second

building at the Central Office is also proposed for

the Tropical Cyclone Research Center of PAGASA.

Field stations are likewise proposed to be upgraded.

The PAGASA actively participates in a number of

international and regional collaborative undertak-

ings which benefits its technical personnel in terms

of knowledge sharing and capacity building. The

PAGASA is a designated WMO Regional Training

Center for South Pacific and is also a member of the

Typhoon Committee. It has undertaken collaborative

activities and projects with various UN organiza-

tions such as WMO, International Civic Aviation

Organization (ICAO), UNESCO, UNDP, and

UNESCAP. It has also established linkages with

UNEP, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC), Asia Pacific Climate Network (APCN),

International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP),

International Oceanographic Commission (IOC),

ASEAN Committee on Science and Technology

(COST), APEC Climate Center (APCC), and the

Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning

System (RIMES), among others. The Agency has

also signed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)

for sharing of data and information and the conduct

of collaborative research and training of technical

personnel with the Korea Meteorological Adminis-

tration (KMA), Department of Hydrology, Meteor-

ology and Climate Change (DHMCC) of Vietnam,

and the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology

of Mongolia. PAGASA also has an on-going

collaboration with the Japan Agency for Marine

Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) and with

Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Germanys

national meteorological service. It has also made

linkages in a number of universities abroad for

the post graduate studies of its personnel.

The production and dissemination of hydrome-teorological forecasting and warning services is

generally fair since most of the observations are still

done manually and data integration and processing

still need to be undertaken. On-line hydrometeoro-

logical observations are mostly in Luzon Island and

very limited in the Visayas and Mindanao. The quality

of information is also fair due to limited automatic

editing and production system. The PAGASA still

does not issue quantitative short-term forecasts or


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nowcasts1due to lack of appropriate equipment and

inadequate skill of its technical personnel in this field.

With these gaps in consideration, the PAGASAs

vision is to achieve the following:

Play a leading role in hydrometeorologicalearly warning system;

Provide public access to quality

meteorological, climatological, hydrological,

and astronomical products;

Play a strong advocacy role on climate change

and the need for adaptation strategies

Attain excellence in tropical cyclone

forecasting in the ASEAN region

Be a strong and dynamic organization with

inspired and dedicated workforce Have well-managed resources.

The realization of PAGASAs vision is supported by

the national government, the private sector, and

various foreign donors who have provided grants

to upgrade the facilities of PAGASA. Among the

foreign organizations that have provided funding

support to PAGASA are the Japan International

Cooperation Agency (JICA), Korea International

Cooperation Agency (KOICA), Taiwan EconomicCooperation Office (TECO), the Australian Agency

for International Development (AusAID), United

Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Spanish

Government, World Bank, United States Trade and

Development Agency (USTDA), Norwegian Agency

for Development Cooperation (Norad), Asian

Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), Australian

Center for International Agricultural Research

(ACIAR), GeoScience Australia (GA), Australian

Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), and the United States

Agency for International Development (USAID).

In addition, there is a need to source out funding

for the implementation of the outcome of the

feasibility study on the improvement of hydrometeo-

rological telecommunication system funded by the

U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA).

Project proposal to strengthen the

PAGASA

It is fully recognized that for DRR to be successful,

there is a need for close coordination among the

different government agencies and private organi-zations involved, as well as the active participation

of the public, apart from improved capabilities of

NMHSs in the provision of forecast of warning ser-

vices. Production of accurate and reliable forecasts

and warnings and related information would need

an integrated system as shown below. Each part

will require a certain level of investment and human

expertise in order to achieve the desired outcome.

1Nowcasting is comprised of a detailed description of the current

weather along with forecasts obtained by extrapolation for a period

of 0 to 6 hours ahead. Nowcasting is a power tool in warning the

public of hazardous, high-impact weather including tropical cyclones,

thunderstorms and tornados. The public is warned of the possibility

of flash floods, lightning strikes and destructive winds.


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Figure 3. PAGASA data/information flow diagram (Source: Engineering Technical Services Division, PAGASA).

Under this setup, it is important that the forecasters workstation should include visualization and editing tools

and should have easy access to all data and products for use as guidance in the formulation of forecasts

and warnings. With the planned forecast automation, more forecast products can be generated to suit the

specific needs of the various end users.

Investment plan

The proposed project to improve PAGASAs services for the benefit of the various socio-economic sectors

in the country (such as disaster risk reduction and management, agriculture, water resources, energy,

health, transportation, tourism, etc.) takes into consideration the agencys on-going modernization program

funded by the national government, including grants from foreign donors in the past five years. The proposal

has also considered the various needs of disaster risk management and other major sectors. In addition,the higher cost-benefit ratio of sharing weather and climate data and information in the region warrants the

improvement of observing networks and forecasting systems from a regional perspective. The large

increase in operational cost of PAGASA as a result of its modernization will be reflected in the investment

plan as a consequential cost to be funded by the national government in order to ensure sustainability of

the entire system. In columns A and B in the table below, the distribution of costs of the five-year project for

strengthening PAGASA is shown considering a stand-alone system and with regional cooperation

system, respectively.


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Item

Cost (US$)

A Stand-alone B Regionalcooperation

International cooperation of experts 100,000 30,000

Telecommunication system

- Hardware + software 14,800,000 14,800,000

- Annual operation

Data management

- Hardware including storage and installation 300,000 300,000

- Consultation and training 50,000 50,000

- Annual maintenance

Meteorological observation network

- Automatic rainfall stations 1,005,000 1,005,000

- Communication costs

Hydrological observation network

- Telemetered hydrological stations 6,160,000 6,160,000

Maritime observation network

- Marine buoys 1,200,000 1,200,000

- Data communication + maintenance

Remote sensing network

- Lightning detection 100,000 100,000

Forecasting and production tools

- Visualization system 300,000 300,000

- Training 100,000 100,000

Training 300,000 200,000

Research and development 310,000 310,000

- Impacts of climate change

- Socio economic impacts

- National seminar on socio-economic benefits

- End-user seminar

Project management

- Consultant 250,000 125,000

- Local project coordinator 100,000 50,000

Total 25,075,000 24,730,000

The modernization of PAGASA covers the on-going projects on flood forecasting, radar, wind profiler,

marine buoy, AWOS, AWS, High speed PC cluster computing system, the acquisition of other necessary

equipment, upgrading of telecommunication system, and specialized training of personnel in hydro-mete-

orology and related fields. The last is considered a critical component of the modernization programme. It

also involves strengthening of cooperation among NMHSs in Southeast Asia for data sharing, exchange of

related information, and research collaboration.


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12

Socio-economic value of weather

forecasts and other hydrometeoro-

logical services in the Philippines

Vital to the continuous and effective operation of an

NMHS for the provision of forecasts and warnings andother relevant services to the various socio-economic

sectors in the country is sustained funding support

from the national government, foreign donors, and the

private sector.

After the great flood in Metro Manila resulting from

Tropical Storm Ketsana on 26 September 2009, the

government created the Special National Public Re-

construction Commission (SNPRC) as governments

counterpart to the newly established Philippine

Disaster Reconstruction Foundation (PDRF), a

private sector led reconstruction entity. The SNPRC

and PDRF spearheaded the signing of a Memoran-

dum of Agreement (MOA) between the PAGASA and

the three major private telecommunication compa-

nies (TelCos) in the Philippines (SMART, GLOBE and

SUNCELLULAR) for the co-location of the observation

equipment of PAGASA in the cellular transmission

sites of the TelCos.

SNPRC and PDRF have ceased to exist however

cooperation between PAGASA and private telecom-

munication companies continues. This significant

partnership is a major breakthrough since the inititive

addresses a major need of PAGASA, i.e. acquiring

secure monitoring and observation sites.

For a 20% reduction in damages, the total discounted

socio-economic benefits of PAGASA improvements

from 2010 to 2029 are calculated to be US$173.70

million.

The total cost of PAGASA improvements for a stand-

alone system is US$32.70 million over a five-year

period. A system based on regional cooperation

costs is less at US$27.14 million. The small diffeence

is because the equipment to be installed in the

Philippines cannot cover the other countries in the

region due to its distance. However, the observed

data from the Philippines will be shared to other

NMHSs which will provide critical information on

tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific and

South China Sea that threatens to affect the other

countries. The cost benefit (C/B) ratios are as follows:

In summary, the following are the main findings of the computations:

The discounted values of the benefits due to the improvements in the NMHS of the Philippines, basedonly on the decrease in damages due to the improvements, are immense and more than enough to pay

for the cost of improvements;

The C/B ratios based on the costs of NMHS improvements and the discounted values of the benefits from

the improvements are inferior to the 1:7 ratio set by the WMO;

The C/B ratio for the system with regional integration being better than that for the stand alone system

implies that the regional integration system is more desirable; and

The C/B ratios would improve further if the indirect benefits of the NMHS improvements and the benefits

beyond 2029 are included in the computation of benefits.

Option Total Costs Discounted Benefits Cost/benefit

(Million US$) (Million US$) Ratio (C/B)

Stand alone 32.70 173.70 1:6.3

With regional cooperation 27.14 173.70 1:6.4


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Environmental impacts of enhancement of the observation network

Only the relay towers (with 30 meter typical height) for the communication link of telemetered flood forecast-

ing and warning system may cause obstruction and would require permits especially from the local aviation

authority prior to its construction. Other than that, the tower poses no adverse impact to the environment.

Financing of the proposed project

The PAGASA is currently implementing a number of projects to improve its observation network with funding

from the national government and foreign donors as part of its modernization program.

The proposed project which complements the PAGASA modernization plan will seek the support of foreign

donors. In the implementation of foreign assisted projects, the national government provides counterpart

funds and technical personnel to assist in project implementation. The Philippine government has funded

the establishment of nine (9) new Doppler radars and other observing equipment that are expected to be

operational in 2016. The government is also expected to allocate funds as consequential expenses for

the operation and maintenance of new equipment to be procured under this project in support of regional

cooperation in Southeast Asia.


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14

1.1 General description

The Philippines is an archipelagic Southeast Asian

country located on the Pacific Rim. It was a Spanish

colony from the first half of the 16th century.

Revolutionists declared a republic in 1898 but it was

immediately thwarted by Americans as a result of the

Treaty of Paris which ended the Spanish-American

War. In 1935, the Philippines became a self-govern-

ing commonwealth. The islands fell under Japanese

occupation during World War II. American and

Filipino forces fought together during the war years

to regain control. Following the end of the war, the

Republic of the Philippines attained its independence

on 4 July 1946.

The Philippines was under a dictatorship during the

rule of Ferdinand Marcos which ended in 1986 when

the people power" movement forced him into exile

and installed Corazon Aquino as president. Fidel

Ramos was later elected president in 1992 followed

by Joseph Estrada in 1998. In 2001 Estrada was

driven out by another "people power" movement

which installed Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as

president. Benigno Aquino III replaced Macapagal-

Arroyo after her second term as President in 2010.

The Philippines is a republic with three separate and

sovereign and yet interdependent branches: the

executive headed by an elected President; the

legislative, with laws promulgated by a two-tier

Congress composed of elected senators and

congressmen (or representatives) of political

districts; and judicial, with the Supreme Court as the

highest judicial body.

1THE PHILIPPINES INA NUTSHELL

http://www.learnnc.org/lp/media/uploads/2008/08/philippines_rel93.jpg

Figure 1.1 Location map of the Philippines


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Geography and Land Use

Location: Southeast Asia, archipelago between

the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea,

east of Viet Nam

Total area: 300,000 km2; land area: 298,170

km2; water area: 1,830 km2

Coastline: 36,289 km

Maritime claims: territorial sea-irregular polygon

extending up to 100 nm from coastline as de

finedby 1898 treaty; since late 1970s has also

claimed polygonal-shaped area in South China

Sea up to 285 nm in breadth

exclusive economic zone: 200 nm

continental shelf: to depth of exploitation

Land use: arable land: 19%; permanent crops:

16.67%; other: 64.33% (2005); Irrigated land:15,500 km2 (2003)

Total renewable water resources: 479 km3 (1999)

Freshwater withdrawal (domestic/industral/

agricultural): total: 28.52 km3/yr

(17%/9%/74%); per capita: 343 m3/yr (2000)

Natural hazards : Along the typhoon belt, usually affected by 20

tropical cyclones every year with 9 making

land fall with associated strong winds and heavy rains causing floods and landslides; it is

also affected by earthquakes, tsunamis,

volcanic eruption and its associated hazards.

Environment- current issues : Uncontrolled deforestation including in water

shed areas; soil erosion; air and water pollution

in especially in major urban centers; coral reef

degradation; increasing pollution of coastal

mangrove swamps that are important fish breeding grounds.

People

Population: 97,976,603 (July 2009 est.)

Life expectancy at birth, total population :

71.09 years

Ethnic groups: Tagalog 28.1%, Cebuano

13.1%, Ilocano 9%, Bisaya/Binisaya 7.6%,

Hiligaynon Ilonggo 7.5%, Bicol 6%, Waray

3.4%, other 25.3% (2000 census)

Languages: Filipino (official; based on Tagalog)

and English (official); eight major dialects -

Tagalog, Cebuano, Ilocano, Hiligaynon or

Ilonggo, Bicolano, Waray, Pampango, and

Pangasinan

Literacy: 93.4% (Note: defined as population of

15 years and over that can read and write.

Source: UNDP, 2011)

Government

Government type: Republic

Capital: Manila

Administrative divisions: 80 provinces and 120

chartered cities

Transnational issues

The Philippines claims sovereignty over Scarbor-

ough Reef (also claimed by China together with

Taiwan) and over certain parts of the Spratly

Islands, known locally as the Kalayaan (Freedom)

Islands, also claimed by China, Malaysia,

Taiwan, and Viet Nam; the 2002 Declaration on

the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea,

has eased tensions in the Spratly Islands but falls

short of a legally binding code of conductdesired by several of the disputants. In March

2005, the national oil companies of China, the

Philippines, and Viet Nam signed a joint accord

to conduct marine seismic activities in the

Spratly Islands; Philippines retains a dormant

claim to Malaysias Sabah State in northern

Borneo based on the Sultanate of Sulus granting

the Philippines Government power of attorney

to pursue a sovereignty claim on his behalf

1.2 Economic overview

The Philippines GDP grew barely by one percent

in 2009 but the economy weathered the 2008-09

global recession better than its regional peers due

to minimal exposure to securities issued by troubled

global financial institutions; lower dependence on

exports; relatively resilient domestic consumption,

supported by large remittances from four-to five-


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16

million overseas Filipino workers; and a growing

business process outsourcing industry. Economic

growth in the Philippines has averaged 4.5 percent

per year since 2001. Despite this growth, poverty

worsened because of a high population growth rate

and inequitable distribution of income. Macapagal-

Arroyo averted a fiscal crisis by pushing for newrevenue measures and, until recently, tightening

expenditures to address the governments yawning

budget deficit and to reduce high debt and debt

service ratios. However, the government

abandoned its 2008 balanced-budget goal in

order to help the economy weather the global

financial and economic storm.

The key economic indicators of the Philippines for

the period 2000-2008 are presented below. It is

noticeable among others and in particular that

the GDP growth and GDP per capita growth

performance of the country have significantly

decreased in 2008 which was directly attributable

to the prevailing global financial crisis that com-

menced in that year.

Gross Domestic Product

- GDP (purchasing power parity): US$324.9billion (2009 est.)

- GDP (official exchange rate): US$160.6 billion

(2009 est.)

- GDP - growth: 0.9% (2009 est.)

- GDP - per capita (PPP): US$3,300 (2009 est.)

- GDP - composition by sector

# agriculture: 14.9%; industry: 29.9%;

services: 55.2% (2009 est.)

Budget :revenues: US$23.29 billion; expendi-

tures: US$29.23 billion (2009 est.)

Labor market

Labor force: 37.89 million (2009 est.)

Labor force - by occupation

agriculture: 34%; industry: 15%; services: 51%

(2009 est.)

Unemployment rate: 7.5% (2009 est.)

Population below poverty line: 32.9%

(2006 est.)

Agriculture - products: sugarcane, coconuts,

rice, corn, bananas, cassavas, pineapples,

mangoes; pork, eggs, beef; fish

Industries: electronics assembly, garments,

footwear, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, woodproducts, food processing, petroleum refining,

fishing

Industrial production growth rate: -2%

(2009 est.)

Energy

Electricity: production: 56.57 billion kWh (2007

est.); consumption: 48.96 billion kWh; (2007

est.); exports: 0 kWh (2008 est.);

imports: 0 kWh (2008 est.)

Oil: production: 25,120 bbl/day (2008);

consumption: 313,000 bbl/day (2008 est.);

exports: 36,720 bbl/day (2007 est.); imports:

342,200 bbl/day (2007 est.); proved reserves:

138.5 million bbl (1 January 2009 est.)

Natural gas: production: 2.94 billion m3 (2008

est.); consumption: 2.94 billion m3; 2008 est.);

exports: 0 m3 (2008 est.); imports: 0 m3 (2008

est.; proved reserves: 98.54 billion m3

(1 January 2009 est.)

Pipelines: oil 107 km; refined products 112 km

(2009)

Exports and imports

Exports - commodities: semiconductors and

electronic products, transport equipment,

garments, copper products, petroleum

products, coconut oil, fruits Exports partners: US 17.6%, Japan 16.2%,

Netherlands 9.8%, Hong Kong 8.6%, China

7.7%, Germany 6.5%, Singapore 6.2%, South

Korea 4.8% (2009 est.)

Imports commodities: electronic products,

mineral fuels, machinery and transport

equipment, iron and steel, textile fabrics,

grains, chemicals, plastic


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Imports partners: Japan 12.5%, US 12%,

China 8.8%, Singapore 8.7%, South Korea 7.9%,

Taiwan 7.1%, Thailand 5.7% (2009 est.)

Natural resources: timber, petroleum, nickel,

cobalt, silver, gold, salt, copper

Reserve, Debt, Aid

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold:

US$44.2 billion (31 December 2009 est.)

Debt - external: US$53.14 billion (30 Septem

ber 2009 est.)

Communications

Telephones - main lines in use: 3.905 million

(2008)

Telephones - mobile cellular: 68.102 million(2008)

Radio broadcast stations: AM 383, FM 659,

shortwave 4 (2008)

Television broadcast stations: 297 (plus 873

CATV networks) (2008)

Internet hosts: 283,607 (2009)

Transportation

Airports - with paved runways

- Total: 85 - Over 3,047 m: 4

- 2,438 to 3,047 m: 8

- 1,524 to 2,437 m: 28

- 914 to 1,523 m: 35

- Under 914 m: 10 (2009)

Airports - with unpaved runways

- Total: 169

- 1,524 to 2,437 m: 4

- 914 to 1,523 m: 66

- Under 914 m: 99 (2009)

Heliports: 2 (2009)

Roadways: 897 km

- Paved: 21,677 km; unpaved: 180,233 km

(2008)

Waterways: 3,219 km (limited to vessels with

draft less than 1.5 m) (2008)

Merchant marine: total 391

- By type: bulk carrier 75, cargo 125, carrier

16, chemical tanker 17, container 6, liquefied

gas 5, passenger 6, passenger/cargo 68,pe

troleum tanker 36, refrigerated cargo 15, roll

on/roll off 11, vehicle carrier 11

- Foreign-owned: 161 (Bermuda 34,

China 4, Greece 4, Hong Kong 1, Japan 81,

Malaysia 1, Netherlands 23, Norway 10, Singapore 1, Taiwan 1, UAE 1)

- Registered in other countries: 11 (Comoros

1, Cyprus 1, Hong Kong 1, Indonesia 1, Pan

ama 7) (2008)

1.3 Climate

The climate of the Philippines is tropical monsoon

dominated by a rainy season, dry season and arelatively cool season that dominates in December

to February. The southwest (summer) monsoon

brings heavy rains to most parts of the archipelago

from May to September, whereas the northeast

(winter) monsoon brings cooler and drier air from

December to February with moderate to heavy rains

in the eastern part of the country. Manila and most

of the lowland areas are hot, sunny and dusty from

March to April. However, temperatures rarely rise

above 37C (99F) in Manila. The highest temperaturerecorded in the Philippines was 42.2 C in

Tuguegarao in Cagayan Valley on 29 April 1912 and

on 11 May 1969. The absolute minimum temperature

of 3.0 C was recorded in January of 1903 in the

mountain city of Baguio.

Annual average rainfall ranges from as much as

5,000 mm (200 in.) in the mountainous east coast

section of the country to less than 1,000 mm (39

in.) in some of the sheltered valleys. Monsoon rains,although hard and drenching, are not normally

associated with high winds and waves. But the

Philippines sit astride the typhoon belt, and the

country suffers an annual onslaught of dangerous

tropical cyclones from July through December. An

average of 19 to 20 tropical cyclones fall under the

Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Tropical

cyclones are especially hazardous for northern

and eastern Luzon and eastern Visayas, but highly


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18

urbanized Metro Manila gets devastated peri-

odically as well. Based on the modified Coronas

classification, the climate of the Philippines is

divided into four (4) categories based on the rainfall

distribution shown in Figure 1.2.

1.4 Disaster Risk Profile

The proneness of the Philippine archipelago to nat-

ural hazards is defined by its location and attributes.

It is located along the typhoon belt in the western

North Pacific Basin where about 33 percent of tropical

cyclones originate. On the average, 5 to 7 tropicalcycles are destructive (Table 1.1). It is also

affected by other severe weather systems such as

the monsoons and the inter-tropical convergence

zone, among others. These weather systems

oftentimes produce heavy rainfall that trigger

floods and rain induced landslides. The country is

also situated in the Pacific Ring of Fire where two

major plates (Philippine Sea and Eurasian) meet.

This explains the occurrence of earthquake and

Figure 1.2 Climate of the Philippines based on Modified

Coronas classification

(Source: Climatological and Agro-meteorological Division, PAGASA).

tsunamis as well as the existence of around 300

volcanoes of which 22 are classified as active.

The heavy rains associated with a series of four (4)

tropical cyclones in November 2004 and early

December 2004 triggered flash floods and massive

landslides in the provinces of Quezon, Aurora, and

Nueva Ecija. The reported casualties including

missing persons reached more than 1,700 persons

with about 3 million people directly affected while

the estimated damages to agriculture, properties,

and infrastructures including the dam at General

Nakar amounted to about US$260million.

From September until early December 2006, aseries of four (4) typhoons battered Luzon and

Visayas islands, a record breaking event in the

history of tropical cyclone occurrences in the

Philippines. Typhoon Xangsane hit Metro Manila,

Typhoon Parma affected Northern Luzon provinces,

Typhoon Durian devastated the province of Albay

and Camarines Sur, and Typhoon Utor battered

Tacloban City, the capital of Leyte province. The total

estimated damages from the four typhoons amount-

ed to US$286.96 million, or almost 94% of the totaldamages for 2006 estimated to be US$306.52 mill ion.

On 21 June 2008, Typhoon Fengshen brought

untold suffering and devastation to millions of

Filipinos nationwide. Its onslaught affected 4.7

million persons with 557 casualties, 826 injured and

87 missing. It also caused one of the worst sea

disasters in the country with the sinking of a

major passenger ferry carrying toxic chemicals.

Total damages to private properties, infrastructureand agriculture amounted to US$293.48 million.

On 26 September 2009, Tropical Storm Ketsana

brought torrential rains equivalent to one month

rainfall in just 6 hours on the Philippine capital of

Manila causing extensive flooding. It affected 4.9

million persons with 464 casualties, and damage to

infrastructure and property amounted to US$234

million.


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The manifestations of a changing climate are already evident in the Philippines. There have been marked

changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events as well as changes in the climate pattern.

Communities at risk have become more vulnerable that existing coping mechanisms no longer suffice. As

global climate change escalates, the risk of floods, droughts and severe tropical cyclones increases. One of

the lessons learned in the flooding in Metro Manila and adjacent provinces is that flooding in the metropolis

is now conditional, i.e. flood impacts depend on land use, urbanization, and climate variability and change

(Nilo and Espinueva, 2009).

Hydrometeorological related hazards cost the Government an average of PhP15 billion (US$326.09 million)

per year in direct damages, or more than 0.5% of the national GDP, and indirect and secondary impacts

would increase this cost (Rabonza, 2006).

1.5 Institutional and Planning Context (Governance)

There are nineteen executive departments of the Philippine government. The heads of these departments

are referred to as the Cabinet of the Philippines.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is the key

government institution that renders national hydrometeorological services (NHMS). It is one of the eight (8)

service institutes under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST). Together with another DOST

Table 1.1. Disastrous tropical cyclones in terms of damage

Year Name Areas affected Damages in million US$

1990 Mike Central Visayas 235.86

1995 Angela Southern Luzon 202.17

1993 Flo Central Luzon 190.22

2006 Xangsane Luzon 143.70

1988 Ruby Southern Luzon 122.61

2006 Durian Southern Luzon 118.48

1984 Ike Northeastern Mindanao/Visayas 82.80

2001 Utor Luzon 78.04

1991 Ruth Northern Luzon 75.432001 Nanang Visayas 70.65

2003 Imbudo Luzon 70.22

1995 Sybil Visayas 60.87

1988 Skip Visayas 59.78

2004 Mindulle Southern Luzon 53.26

2006 Chanchu North & South Luzon 52.83

2008 Fengshen Visayas and Luzon 293.48

2009 Ketsana Luzon 241.30

2009 Parma Luzon 426.74

Source: Office of Civil Defense.


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20

service institute, the Philippine Institute for Volca-

nology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), PAGASA acts

as warning agencies and an active S&T partner

in disaster risk reduction (DRR). The DOST is

also a member of the Advisory Board of the

Climate Change Commission which is chaired by the

President. One of the functions of the Board is to

assist the Commission in the formulation of climate

adaptation and mitigation policies and to give

advice on matters related to the mandate of the

agencies.

The Philippine Development Plan 2011-2016 (PDP)

is the national development roadmap of the country.

It aims for an economic growth of seven to eight per

cent per year for at least six years, and achieving

or surpassing the Millennium Development Goals.

The PDP has identified disaster risk reduction

and management (DRRM) and climate change

adaptation (CCA) as major cross-cutting concerns.

National policy promotes mainstreaming the

integrated concerns of DRR and CCA into national

and local decision making and planning processes.

This is reflected in the legal framework for climate

change adaptation in Republic Act No. 9729of 2010 (Climate Change Act) and disaster risk

reduction in Republic Act No. 10121 (Disaster Risk

Reduction and Management Act of 2011). Both

laws require local government units to adopt plans:

the Local Climate Change Action Plan (LCCAP) and

Local Disaster Risk Reduction and Management

Plan (LDRRMP), respectively.

Philippines adopted the National Disaster Risk

Reduction Management Plan (NDRRMP) in 2011.The NDRRPMP identified the PDPs approaches to

DRRM as follows:

Mainstream DRRM and CCA into existing

policies (i.e. land-use, building code, General

Appropriations Act or GAA), plans and

programs (i.e. researches, school curricula)

Reduce vulnerability through continued and

sustained assessments especially in high-risk

areas

Integrate DRRM and CCA in all educational

levels and in specialized technical training and

research programs

Raise public awareness of DRR and mitigating

the impacts of disasters through the formulation

and implementation of a

communication plan for DRR and CCA

Increase resilience of communities through the

development of climate change-sensitive

technologies and systems and the provision

of support services to the most vulnerable

communities

Strengthen the capacity of communities to

respond effectively to climate and other natural

and human-induced hazards and disasters

Institutionalize DRRM and CCA in various

sectors and increase local government and

community participation in DRRM and CCA

activities

Push for the practice and use of Integrated

Water Resources Management (IWRM) and

prioritize the construction of flood management

structures in highly vulnerable areas, while

applying DRRM and CCA strategies in the

planning and design of flood management

structures Intensify the development and utilization of

renewable energy and environment-friendly

alternative energy resources/technologies.

Another plan that shall have repercussions on the

service provided by NHMS is the National Climate

Change Action Plan (NCCAP) which outlines the

agenda for climate change adaptation and mitigation

for 2011 to 2038. NCCAP counts Ecosystem and

Environmental Stability and Human Security asstrategic priorites; both directly interphase with

DRRM. NCCAP recognizes that DRRM and CCA

approaches and programmes need to converge

especially since climate and weather-related

hazards can lead to large-scale disasters if

processes and communities are not prepared

and risks are not reduced. The two institutions,

National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management

Council (NDRRMC) and the Climate Change


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Commission (described in sections 1.5.2 and 1.5.3,

respectively have entered into a Memorandum of

Understanding to harmonize and coordinate the

planning, development and implementation

requirements of LCCAPs and LDRRMPs by local

government units.

1.5.1 Science and technology

PAGASA, as a warning agency, operates and main-

tains a system of monitoring for weather, hydrological

phenomena and weather variability. As one of the

eight (8) service institutes under the Department of

Science and Technology (DOST), it renders also

science and technology related services dealing

with risk identification, hazard mapping, hazards

monitoring, early warning and preparedness. It is

a scientific and technical institution that promotes

disaster and hazard information; it operates and

maintains a system of monitoring for weather,

hydrological phenomena, and climate variability.

According to the DOST website, PAGASA is

mandated to provide protection against natural

calamities and utilize scientific knowledge as an

effective instrument to insure the safety, well-beingand economic security of all the people, and for

promotion of national progress.

Over the last two or three years, its hazard mitiga-

tion work has spanned the broad spread of disaster

risk reduction activities as a partner in the Collective

Strengthening of Community Awareness for

Natural Disasters (CSCAND) Technical Working

Group. The group comprised of the Mines and

Geosciences Bureau (MGB), National Mapping andInformation Resources Authority (NAMRIA), Philip-

pine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical

Services Administration (PAGASA), and the Office

of Civil Defense (OCD) under the Department of

National Defense, is mandated to improve our

understanding of natural hazard risks in the country.

Due to the perennial damage caused by hydro-

meteorological hazards, the government put high

priority on flood forecasting and issuance of

warnings at least six (6) hours before occurrence of

a flooding event. Thus, the DOST put in place the

National Operational Assessment of Hazards

(NOAH) which integrates disaster-related projects of

the DOST. NOAH includes 3D digital terrain mapping,

sensors and warning systems development,

installation and upgrading Doppler radars, flood

modelling, geohazards mapping, tsunami monitoring

and information and communication systems. It is

done in collaboration with the academe (such as

the National Institute of Geological Sciences (NIGS)

and the College of Engineering at the University

of the Philippines. Measuring devices are being

installed at observation stations in the Cagayan,

Iligan, Agno and Bicol river basins.

1.5.2 Disaster risk reduction and

management (DRRM)

The legal framework for dealing with disaster in the

country is Republic Act 10121, which was passed in

May 2010. This marked a significant change from

the old law that existed since 1978, Presidential

Decree No. 1566 (Strengthening the PhilippineDisaster Control, Capability and Establishing the

National Program of Community Disaster Prevention).

For a long time, the latter no longer reflected the

social realities of the time and defaults on the

developmental context of disasters and climate

change.

RA 10121 acknowledges the need to adopt a

disaster risk reduction and management approach

that is holistic, comprehensive, integrated, andproactive in lessening the socio-economic and

environmental impacts of disasters including

climate change, and promote the involvement and

participation of all sectors and all stakeholders

concerned, at all levels, especially the local

community.

In terms of institutional arrangements, the council

structure from the old law was retained. The council


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22

was renamed National Disaster Risk Reduction and

Management Council (NDRRMC). The DOST was

a member of the previous council (called National

Disaster Management Council). In the present

law, the DOST secretary is designated at the Vice

Chairperson for disaster prevention and mitigation

of the NDRRMC. PAGASA and PHIVOLCS being

the most relevant service institutes of DOST, are, by

default, regular attendees of the council meeting.

All departments are part of the NDRRMC, which

is chaired by the Secretary of the Department of

National Defense

The Philippines like most countries in the world

adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015

(HFA) in January 2005. The Philippine government

then formally shifted the focus from disaster

response to disaster preparedness and mitigation.

In the past years, however, the country experienced

major disasters that propelled the relevant

institutions to adopt measures that in effect

reflected this shift.

The REINA project was a response to the typhoon

that left considerable damage to agriculture andsettlements in the municipalities of Real, Infanta,

Nakar in Quezon province, which is located in the

eastern seaboard facing the Pacific Ocean. In the

disaster rehabilitation project, PAGASA was part

of team consisting of the CSCAND agencies. It

required substantial scientific input into early warn-

ing, disaster preparedness and mitigation. REINA

project became the starting point of a new approach

not only recovery but also in the approach towards

hazards, i.e., reducing disaster risks and vulnerability.

Due to the success of the project, the READY project

was conceived to provide the necessary support to

the provinces which are most at risk. Funded by the

Australian Agency for International Development

(AusAID) and administered by the United Nations

Development Programme (UNDP), again the same

government agencies teamed.

Multi-hazard identification and disaster risk

assessment, community disaster preparedness

(Community-based Early Warning System,CBEWS),

information,education and communication) are

components of the READY Project. (Note: READY

stands for Hazards Mapping and Assessment

for Effective Community-Based Disaster Risk

Management) The READY project aims to provide

immediate, reliable information to the communities

at risk, on the various geological and hydro-

meteorological hazards in their respective

localities. PAGASA dealt with two of nine hazards,

namely flood/flash flood and storm surge.

Being a warning agency for hydrometeorological

hazards, PAGASA needs to incorporate information,

education and communication into its work. To cite,

the law entreats the establishment of early warning

systems (EWS) which it defines as the set of

capacities needed to generate and disseminate

timely and meaningful warning information to

enable individuals, communities and organizations

threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act

appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the

possibility of harm or loss. As a NMHS, PAGASAfaces huge challenges especially as the impacts of

climate change are increasingly being experienced

in different parts of the country.

1.5.3 Climate Change

In accordance with R.A. 9729, the Climate Change

Commission (CCC) was established. As part of the

DOST and CCC Advisory Board Member, PAGASA is

expected to perform its role in the formulation ofclimate adaptation and mitigation policies. The

major part it has played is the generation of climate

change scenarios.

In the preparation of the National Communication

to the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC), PAGASA contributes

information on climate change such as climate

projections in the Philippines based on research


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findings. (Note: The Initial Communication was submitted in 1999, while the Second National Communication

was submitted in 2011) PAGASA is expected to play a more important role in this area of expertise.

The climate projections generated using PRECIS, a model based on Hadley Centres regional climate

modelling system, were a useful aid in the preparation of the National Communication also The scenarios

are characteristics of plausible future climates (PAGASA, ADAPTAYO and MDGF, 2011; Climate Changein the Philippines). The projections are also used for national and local planning purposes.


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24

2The increasing frequency of occurrence and severity of hydrometeorological events in the country,

especially tropical cyclones, could result to higher human casualties and damages that can significantly

slow down economic development.

The assessment of the benefits of hydrometeorological services, in the context of economic cost-benefit

analysis (BCA or CBA) can be a helpful tool in evaluating the benefits of upgrading NMHS facilities. CBA

can also be used as reference in identifying the investment areas (e.g. monitoring, modelling, research,

etc.) where funding support can be provided.

2.1 Weather and climate-dependent economic sectors

Of the weather and climate-dependent economic sectors of the Philippines, manufacturing and agriculture

have been the most dominant contributors to the national economy. In 2007, these sectors respectively

contributed 23.2% and 14.0% to the gross domestic product (Table 2.1). In totality the weather and

climate-dependent economic sectors contributed 61% to the GDP in the same year.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL

SERVICES

Source: United Nations Statistics Division.

Retrieved from http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=SNA&f=group_code%3a202

Table 2.1 Main economic sectors and weather dependent sectors in national economy, Philippines

(% of GDP at 1985 constant prices excluding taxes, i.e. % of gross value added, GVA).

Sector 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Agriculture, hunting and

related service activities

Forestry, logging and

related service activities

Fishing

Land transport; transport via

pipelines, water transport;

air transport; Supporting

and auxiliary transport

activities; activities of travel

agencies

Post and

telecommunicationsMining and quarrying

Manufacturing

Electricity, gas and

water supply

Construction

Hotels and restaurants

Total

15.8 16.1 16.0 15.6 15.3 14.7 14.3 14.0

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

3.8 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3

4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8

2.8 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.0

1.1 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7

24.4 24.7 24.4 24.3 24.1 24.2 24.0 23.2

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1

6.6 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.9 4.5

1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

63.6 63.0 63.0 62.7 62.5 61.7 61.3 61.0


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2.2 Methodology for computing

socio-economic benefits

The methodology employed for computing the

potential socio-economic benefits of plannedimprovements in the NMHS done here is driven

by the availability of secondary data. Benefits are

defined as avoided or reduced costs from damage.

The use of secondary data is necessitated by the

limited time and resources available for this work.

The secondary data were collected from institution-

al sources. These secondary data were enhanced

by informed assumptions provided by institutional

key informants. It should be emphasized that the

accuracy of the computations done here is depend-ent on the accuracy of the secondary data on the

socio-economic damages caused by weather and

climate-related natural disasters from the institutional

sources.

In chronological order, the specific steps followed

in the measurement of the economic and social im-

pacts of weather and climate-related disasters and

the potential benefits from planned NMHS improve-

ment for the Philippines are the following: - Identification of the different kinds of potential

direct economic and social damages resulting

from weather and climate-related disasters and

their affected economic and social sectors;

- Determination of the different kinds of potential

economic and social damages that have al ready

been quantified by the institutional and related

data sources;

- Collection of the quantified data of economic

and social damages;- Measurement, based on certain assumptions, of

the increase/reduction in the value of economic

and social damages as a result of the planned

improvements in their NMHS; and

- Measurement of the total economic and social

benefits due to planned improvements in the

NMHS.

The weather and climate-related disasters and their

potential direct impacts on the affected economic

and social sectors are presented below (Table 2.2).

In addition to the potential direct impacts of weather

and climate-related disasters, there are potentialindirect impacts on the other sectors that have

backward and forward linkages to the mainly

affected sectors. For instance, disruptions in

agriculture may impact the other sectors of the

economy through increases in the prices of

agricultural goods and services in the market.

An examination of the secondary data available,

however, showed that the data and information

needed for computing the value of the indirect im-pacts of weather and climate-related disasters are

not available. Thus, the computation done here

consider only the direct socio-economic impacts of

weather and climate related disasters as generated

from the institutional data sources.

Based on reduction of damages as a result of the

planned improvement in the NMHS, the costs of

the NMHS improvements are taken in a succeeding

section of this report. Based on the cost and benefitfigures, the cost/benefit (C/B) ratios are computed

and compared with the ratio set by the WMO.

2.3 Results and analysis

Natural hazard-induced disasters

The data on total number of disasters, number of

deaths, number of persons who were rendered

homeless, number of persons who were injured andtotal number of persons affected by natural hazard-

induced disasters in the Philippines for the period

1990-2009 are presented in Table 2.3. For the 1990

to 2009 period, the country had 226 such disas-

ters causing death of more than 20,000 people and

injury to more than 16,000 persons. The disasters

also affected more than 82 million individuals and

rendered more than 2.4 million persons homeless.


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26

Total socio-economic damages

The value of direct socio-economic damages caused by weather and climate-related disasters in the

Philippines for the 1990-2009 period and the estimated damages for the 2010-2029 period are presented

in Table 2.4. The annual estimated socio-economic damages for 2010-2029 were computed as the aver-

age of the annual actual damages for the 1990-2009 period adjusted to inflation. The average annual actualsocio-economic damages for the 1990-2009 period was at US$232 million and in the absence of 2010 data is

reflected as the annual estimated damages for that year.

Table 2.2 Potential direct impacts of weather and climate-related disasters on different economic

and social sectors in the Philippines.

Economic/Social sector Potential Direct Impacts

Economic Sectors

Social Sectors

Lost income, disruption in operations, damaged irrigation, dams and

other agricultural infrastructure and facilities, soil erosion, land deg-

radation, fertility depletion, alteration of fruiting and harvesting dates;

resurgence of pests, diseases in rice, scale insects in fruits, and inva-

sive weeds, etc.

Lost income, disruption in operations, damaged transportation and

communication infrastructure and facilities, etc.

Lost income, disruption in operations, damaged energy infrastructure

and facilities, etc.

Lost income, disruption in operations, damaged tourism infrastructure

and facilities, tarnished image as a tourist destination, etc.

Lost and impaired human lives and property, reduction in land and

property values in affected areas, etc.

Lost income due to death or injury, disruption in operations, psychic

costs due to death or injury, cost of rehabilitation, etc.

Lost income, disruption in operations, opportunity costs ofcancellation of classes, rehabilitation costs of damaged schools and

related property, etc.

Diminished water access and water availability, management and

control cost of water pollution, etc.

Agriculture

Transportation &

Communication

Energy

Tourism

Human Settlements

Health

Education

Water

The reduction in damages (Table 2.5) is assumed to start in 2012, a year after the start of the project, and

increases up to 2016. A reduction in the economic damages of 2% annually from 2012 to 2015 and 10%

thereafter is further assumed meaning that the effects of the improvement gradually occur in equal increments

until it reaches maximum effect by 2016 and onwards. While there are no available previous researches which

indicate the right percentage of damage reduction in damages which should be assumed, the 10% reduction

in damages used here is based on informed opinion of key informants and technical people and considered aconservative estimate. From 2010-2029, the estimated reduction in damages or the socio-economic benefits

amount to US$705.20 million and the annual average reduction is US$35.26 million.

Table 2.5 also presents the discounted or net present value of the estimated reductions in the economic

damages, or the socio-economic benefits, due to improvements of the NMHS of the Philippines. The social

discount rate used in 12 percent which is within the 10 to 12 percent used by the Asian Development Bank

(ADB) for public projects (Zhuang et al. 2007). The results show that the total discounted socio-economic

benefits from 2010 to 2029 are US$173.70 million while the annual average benefits are US$8.690 million.

These discounted figures are way lower than the undiscounted figures shown in the same table.


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In the case of costs, there are two options for improvements in NMHS considered. The first, the stand-alone

option, is the case where the improvements are separate investments of the country while the second, the

regional cooperation option, means that the improvements are done as part of an integrated regional system.

Because of the efficiency effects of integration, the costs of the latter are lower than the former. The

undiscounted capital costs, which will all be spent at the start of the project for the stand-alone option, is

US$24.95 million while that for the regional cooperation option is US$24.85 million. The discounted andundiscounted operating and maintenance costs for the two options are provided in Tables 2.6.

Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Retrieved from http://www.emdat.be/advanced-search

Note: In this table and the succeeding ones, the weather and climate-related natural disasters specifically include drought, extreme

temperature, flood, mass movement wet, storm and wildfire.

Table 2.3 Selected statistics related to weather and climate-related disasters

in the Philippines, 1990 to 2009

YearNumber of disasters

that occurred

Number of persons

who died

Number of persons

homeless

Number of persons

injured

Total affected

1990 9 913 1,110,020 1,288 7,286,601

1991 9 6,153 75,073 3,109 1,572,688

1992 7 180 9,267 91 2,100,126

1993 10 592 249,122 570 3,929,411

1994 17 337 371,802 192 2,876,643

1995 13 1,725 116,000 2,447 3,405,997

1996 5 83 96,000 21 133,636

1997 4 67 - 5 471,770

1998 6 604 - 866 9,923,299

1999 16 364 9,781 177 3,492,351

2000 10 736 125,250 393 6,355,912

2001 9 630 100,000 480 3,541,737

2002 12 395 3,000 178 3,416,147

2003 10 350 83,203 75 687,749

2004 12 1,918 8,700 1,321 3,262,978

2005 4 39 - - 213,057

2006 19 2,984 - 2,703 8,568,968

2007 15 129 - 24 2,009,056

2008 20 959 54,645 1,015 8,459,896

2009 19 1,116 100 690 10,490,198

Total 226 20,274 2,411,963 15,645 82,198,220


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Table 2.4 Actual and estimated economic value of damages due to weather and climate-related

natural disasters in the Philippines, 1990-2009 (million US dollars)

Actual Damages Estimated Damages

Year Value Year Value

1990 453 2010 232

1991 276 2011 244

1992 74 2012 258

1993 337 2013 272

1994 169 2014 287

1995 1,018 2015 303

1996 42 2016 319

1997 8 2017 337

1998 235 2018 355

1999 80 2019 375

2000 88 2020 3962001 11 2021 417

2002 26 2022 440

2003 42 2023 464

2004 139 2024 490

2005 3 2025 517

2006 347 2026 545

2007 17 2027 575

2008 481 2028 607

2009 544 2029 640

Source of data: For 1990-2009, the data we

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