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Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors

. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.

Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue

2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360

Sarasota, FL 34236

1

Factors Adding to Reserves

Note: Data are weekly averages for all but the Foreign Central Bank TAF which are as of the last day of the week.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistical Release H.4.1.

"

TDWP-8/17/07"

TSLF-3/11/08

PDCF-3/16/08

SeriesBreak

TAF-12/12/07

SeriesBreak

$450

$600

$750

$900

$1,050

$1,200

$1,350

$1,500

$1,650

$1,800

$1,950

$2,100

$2,250

$2,400

$2,550

$2,700

$2,850

$3,000

$3,150

$3,300

8-Aug-07

28-Nov-07

9-Jan-08

20-Feb-08

2-Apr-08

24-Sep-08

5-Nov-08

17-Dec-08

28-Jan-09

11-Mar-09

22-Apr-09

03-Jun-09

15-Jul-09

26-Aug-09

07-Oct-09

18-Nov-09

30-Dec-09

10-Feb-10

24-Mar-10

5-May-10

16-Jun-10

28-Jul-10

8-Sep-10

20-Oct-10

1-Dec-10

12-Jan-11

23-Feb-11

6-Apr-11

18-May-11

29-Jun-11

10-Aug-11

21-Sep-11

2-Nov-11

14-Dec-11

25-Jan-12

7-Mar-12

18-Apr-12

30-May-12

11-Jul-12

22-Aug-12

3-Oct-12

14-Nov-12

26-Dec-12

6-Feb-13

$

Bn

Factors Adding to Reserves on Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (Assets) Plus

Off-Balance TSLF from 6/27/07 to 3/13/13

Mortgage Backed Securities

US Treasuries

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2

Factors Using Reserves

Note: Data are weekly averages for all but the Foreign Central Bank TAF which are as of the last day of the week.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistical Release H.4.1.

TS

LF-3/11/08,950

"TDWP-8/17/07"

TAF-12/12/07

PDCF-3/16/08

SeriesBreak

SeriesBreak

$450

$600

$750

$900

$1,050

$1,200

$1,350

$1,500

$1,650

$1,800

$1,950

$2,100

$2,250

$2,400

$2,550$2,700

$2,850

$3,000

$3,150

$3,300

27-Jun-07

8-Aug-07

28-Nov-07

9-Jan-08

20-Feb-08

2-Apr-08

24-Sep-08

5-Nov-08

17-Dec-08

28-Jan-09

11-Mar-09

22-Apr-09

03-Jun-09

15-Jul-09

26-Aug-09

07-Oct-09

18-Nov-09

30-Dec-09

10-Feb-10

24-Mar-10

5-May-10

16-Jun-10

28-Jul-10

8-Sep-10

20-Oct-10

1-Dec-10

12-Jan-11

23-Feb-11

6-Apr-11

18-May-11

29-Jun-11

10-Aug-11

21-Sep-11

2-Nov-11

14-Dec-11

25-Jan-12

7-Mar-12

18-Apr-12

30-May-12

11-Jul-12

22-Aug-12

3-Oct-12

14-Nov-12

26-Dec-12

6-Feb-13

Factors Using Reserves on Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (Liabilities)from 6/27/2007 to 3/13/2013

Billions

Currency in Circulation

Reserve Balances

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3

Projected Baseline Assets

Source: Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy. Greenlaw, Hamilton, Hooper, and Mishkin (2013).

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4

Projected Baseline Liabilities

Source: Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy. Greenlaw, Hamilton, Hooper, and Mishkin (2013).

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5

Everyone is Now Looking at Jobs

When will unemployment most recently at7.7% hit 6.5%?

We have looked at job formation assuming 0.7%annual growth in labor force and -0.3% annual

change in participation rate.

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6

How Many Jobs Does the Economy Create?

Assumed Quarterly %

Real GDP Growth

Estimated Number of

Jobs Created within

the Quarter

Estimated Number of

Quarters to Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Estimated Number

of Jobs Created

Within Quarter

Estimated Number

of Quarters to

Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Estimated Number

of Jobs Created

Within Quarter

Estimated

Number of

Quarters to

Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Average Hi (95%) Interval Low (95%) Interval

1 161 20 188 17 134 24

2 322 10 377 9 268 12

3 483 7 565 6 402 8

4 644 5 753 4 536 6

Assumed Quarterly %

Real GDP Growth

Estimated Number of

Jobs Created per

Month

Estimated Number of

Months to Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Estimated Number

of Jobs Created per

Month

Estimated Number

of Months to

Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Estimated Number

of Jobs Created

Within Month

Estimated

Number of

Months to

Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Average Hi (95%) Interval Low (95%) Interval

1 54 60 63 51 45 72

2 107 30 126 26 89 363 161 20 188 17 134 24

4 215 15 251 13 179 18

Source: Haver and Cumberland Advisors

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GDP Growth Needed to Create Enough Jobsfor Unemployment to Hit 6.5%

Source: Cumberland Advisors

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8

Job Growth Needed to Hit 6.5% Unemployment

Source: Cumberland Advisors

10305070

90110130150170190210230250270290310330

350370390410430450470490510530550570

590610630650

4/1/2012

7/10/2012

10/18/2012

1/26/2013

5/6/2013

8/14/2013

11/22/2013

3/2/2014

6/10/2014

9/18/2014

12/27/2014

4/6/2015

7/15/2015

10/23/2015

1/31/2016

5/10/2016

8/18/2016

11/26/2016

3/6/2017

6/14/2017

9/22/2017

12/31/2017

Month in Which Unemployment Rate Reaches 6.5% for Assumed

Monthly Job Growth - Labor Force is Assumed to Increase at .7%

Annually and Participation Rate is Assumed to Decline .3% Annually

95% Confidence Lower Bound

95% Confidence Upper Bound

If the economy creates 210,000 jobs per month, unemployment

will hit 6.5% between Feb 2014 and May 2014.

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9

U3 Through U6

Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Perc

ent

U6 U5 U4 U3

U4 : U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditionsmake them believe that no work is available for them.

U5 : U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able tobut have not looked for work recently.

U6 : U5 + Part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons.

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10

Sources of Difference Between U6 andStandard Employment Statistic

Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Percent

% Discouraged Workers %Marginally Attached Workers %Part-Time Workers Who Want Full Time Work

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The Beveridge Curve: Job Vacancy Rate vs.U-3 Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5

Jo

b

Vacancy

Rate

U-3 Unemployment Rate

Dec '01- Nov '07 Dec '07- Jun '09 Jul '09- Jan '13

Nov '07

Dec '12

Jun '09

Dec '01

Dec '07

Jul '09

Jan '13

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey, March 12, 2013

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12

Monthly Unemployment vs. Inflation

Source: Concept: Thomas W. Synnott, Bureau of Labor Statistics March 15, 2013

Jan-07

Feb-07 Mar-07

Apr-07

May-07

Jun-07

Jul-07

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07Nov-07

Dec-07Jan-08

Feb-08

Mar-08Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09Jun-09

Jul-09Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09 Nov-09

Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10

Mar-10Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10 Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11 Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11Dec-11

Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12

Apr-12May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12

Nov-12Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Fed Target

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

UnemploymentRate(U-3)

Inflation (CPI )Pre-Crisis During Crisis Post Crisis

During Crisis

(Dec. '07-June '09)

Post Crisis

(Jul '09-present)

Pre-Crisis

(Jan '07-Nov '07)

(6.5% unemployment rate, 2.5% inflation rate)

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Total Assets of Major Central Banks

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Jan-06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

$ Billions

Monthly Central Bank Assets (Dollar Equivalents on Left Scale $ Billions)

for US, UK,Japan, Euro Area, and Swiss National Bank

from June-06 to Feb-13

Federal Res erve Bank of England ECB Bank of Japan Swiss National Bank

X

Mar. 2013

Estimate:

$10020 bn

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European System of Central Banks

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

1/1/1999

5/21/1999

10/8/1999

2/25/2000

7/14/2000

12/1/2000

4/20/2001

9/7/2001

1/25/2002

6/14/2002

11/1/2002

3/21/2003

8/8/2003

12/26/2003

5/14/2004

10/1/2004

2/18/2005

7/8/2005

11/25/2005

4/14/2006

9/1/2006

1/19/2007

6/8/2007

10/26/2007

3/14/2008

8/1/2008

12/19/2008

5/8/2009

9/25/2009

2/12/2010

7/2/2010

11/19/2010

4/8/2011

8/26/2011

1/13/2012

6/1/2012

10/19/2012

Eurosystem: Other Assets (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: General Govt Debt

Denominated in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Securities of Euro Area

Resid in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Oth Claim on Eur AreaCred Inst in Euro(NSA Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Lending to Euro Area

Cred Inst in Euro (NSA Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Noneuro

Residents in Euros (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Euro Res in

Fgn Currency (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Noneuro Res

in Fgn Currency (NSA Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Gold and Gold

Receivables (NSA, Mil.EUR)

European System of Central Banks Assets in Euros from 01/05/07 to 03/01/13

Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank.

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European System - Liabilities

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

1/1/1999

5/14/1999

9/24/1999

2/4/2000

6/16/2000

10/27/2000

3/9/2001

7/20/2001

11/30/2001

4/12/2002

8/23/2002

1/3/2003

5/16/2003

9/26/2003

2/6/2004

6/18/2004

10/29/2004

3/11/2005

7/22/2005

12/2/2005

4/14/2006

8/25/2006

1/5/2007

5/18/2007

9/28/2007

2/8/2008

6/20/2008

10/31/2008

3/13/2009

7/24/2009

12/4/2009

4/16/2010

8/27/2010

1/7/2011

5/20/2011

9/30/2011

2/10/2012

6/22/2012

11/2/2012

Eurosystem: Capital and Reserves

(NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Revaluation Accounts

(NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Other Liabilities (NSA,

Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab: Counterpart of

SDRs Allocated by IMF (NSA,

Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab to Noneuro Area

Resid in Fgn Currency (NSA,

Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab to Euro Area

Residents in Fgn Currency (NSA,

Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab to Non-euro Area

Residents in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab to Other Euro Area

Residents in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab: Debt Certificates

Issued (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Other Liab to Euro Area

Credit Inst in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab to Euro Area Credit

Institutions in Euro(NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab: Banknotes in

Circulation (NSA, Mil.EUR)

European System of Central Banks Liabilities in Euros from 01/05/07 to 03/01/13

Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank.

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Bank of England Assets

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000 UK: BoE Consol St: Short-term Open Mkt Operations{RPWB66A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Total Other Assets{RPWB74A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Cons St: Other Sec Acq Via Mkt Transactns{RPWB73A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consol St: Advances to the Central Govt {RPWB72A} --DISC(NSA,Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consol St: Longer-term Reverse Repo {RPWB69A}(NSA, Mil.Pounds)

Bank of England Assets in Pounds Sterling from 01/03/07 to 03/06/13

Source: Bank of England.

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Bank of England Liabilities

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

1/3/2007

4/3/2007

7/3/2007

10/3/2007

1/3/2008

4/3/2008

7/3/2008

10/3/2008

1/3/2009

4/3/2009

7/3/2009

10/3/2009

1/3/2010

4/3/2010

7/3/2010

10/3/2010

1/3/2011

4/3/2011

7/3/2011

10/3/2011

1/3/2012

4/3/2012

7/3/2012

10/3/2012

1/3/2013

UK: BoE Consolidated St: Foreign Currency Securities

{RPWB59A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Other Liabilities


UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Cash Ratio Deposits


UK: BoE Cons St: Open Mkt Operatns: Fine-tuning Repo


UK: BoE Consol St: Standing Facility Deposits

{RPWB57A} --DISC (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consol St: Reserve Balance Liabilities


UK: BoE Consolidated St: Notes in Circulation{RPWB55A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

Bank of England Liabilities in Pounds Sterling from 01/03/07 to 03/06/13

Source: Bank of England.

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Swiss National Bank Assets

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

012007

042007

072007

102007

012008

042008

072008

102008

012009

042009

072009

102009

012010

042010

072010

102010

012011

042011

072011

102011

012012

042012

072012

102012

012013

Swiss National Bank Assets in Swiss Francs from 01/31/07 to 01/31/13

Reserve position in the IF

Other assets

Loan to stabilisation fund

CHF securities

Claims against dome stic correspondents

Domestic Money Market claims

Balances from swap transactions against CHF

Claims from USD repo transactions

Claims from CHF repo transactions

Monetary assistance loans

International payent instruments

Foreign currency investents

Gold holdings and clais from gold transactions

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Swiss National Bank Liabilities

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

012007

042007

072007

102007

012008

042008

072008

102008

012009

042009

072009

102009

012010

042010

072010

102010

012011

042011

072011

102011

012012

042012

072012

102012

012013

Swiss National Bank Liabilities in Swiss Francs from 01/31/07 to 01/31/13

Provisions and equity capital

Other liabilities

Counterpart of special drawing rights allocated by

the IF

Foreign currency liabilities

Other tie liabilities

SNB debt certificates

Liabilities from CHF repo transactions

Other sight liabilities

Sight deposits of foreign banks and institutions

Liabilities towards the Confederation

Sight deposits of domestic banks

Banknotes in circulation

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0.00

20,000.00

40,000.00

60,000.00

80,000.00

100,000.00

120,000.00

140,000.00

160,000.00

180,000.00

Jul-97

Nov-97

Mar-98

Jul-98

Nov-98

Mar-99

Jul-99

Nov-99

Mar-00

Jul-00

Nov-00

Mar-01

Jul-01

Nov-01

Mar-02

Jul-02

Nov-02

Mar-03

Jul-03

Nov-03

Mar-04

Jul-04

Nov-04

Mar-05

Jul-05

Nov-05

Mar-06

Jul-06

Nov-06

Mar-07

Jul-07

Nov-07

Mar-08

Jul-08

Nov-08

Mar-09

Jul-09

Nov-09

Mar-10

Jul-10

Nov-10

Mar-11

Jul-11

Nov-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Nov-12

Y

e

n

Bank of Japan Assets from 7/ 97 to 2/13

Gold (Bil.Yen) Receivables Under Resale Agreements (Bi l.Yen) Bills Purchased (Bil.Yen)

Government Securities in Custody (Bil.Yen) Commercial Bills Discounted (Bil.Yen) Commercial Paper (EOP, Bil.Yen)

Corpora te Bonds (EOP, Bil. Yen) Pecunia ry Trusts [Stocks Hel d as Tr ust Property ] (Bi l.Yen) Inde x-Linke d Exch-Trade d Funds Held a s Trus t Prop(Bil. Yen)

Real Estate Invt Trusts (Bil.Yen) Cash (Bil.Yen) Japanese Government Securities (Bil.Yen)

A ss et -B acke d Se cu ritie s ( Bil.Y en) Lo ans E xclu ding T hose to th e D ep os it I ns ura nce Corp(Bil .Ye n) Lo ans to D eposit Insur ance Corp orat ion (Bi l.Y en)

Foreign Currency Assets (Bil.Yen) Deposits with Agents (Bil.Yen) Cash Collat in Exchange for Govt Securities Borrowed(Bil.Yen)

Other (Bil.Yen) Tot al Assets (Bi l.Yen)



Sarasota, FL 34236

20

Bank of Japan Assets

Japan removes QE2

with Bills Purchased

Source: Bank of Japan.

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Bank of Japan Liabilities

0.00

20,000.00

40,000.00

60,000.00

80,000.00

100,000.00

120,000.00

140,000.00

160,000.00

180,000.00

Y

e

n

Bank of Japan Liabilities from 7/ 97 to 2/13

Banknotes (Bil.Yen) Current deposits (Bil.Yen) Other deposits (Bil.Yen)

Payables Under Repurchase Agreements (Bil.Yen) Bills Sold (Bil.Yen) Other (Bil.Yen)

Provisions (Bil.Yen) Deposits of the Govt(Bil.Yen) Capital (Bil.Yen)

Legal & Special Reserves (Bil.Yen) Govt Securities Borrowed (Bil.Yen) Total Liabilities & Capital Accounts (Bil.Yen)

Japan removes QE2

with Current Deposits

Removed

Source: Bank of Japan.

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All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable.

However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no

guarantee of future results.

Disclosure

Documents

32613 Gic Dubai