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Yara International ASA Credit Suisse Chemical & Ag Conference New York, 14 September 2010 CEO Jørgen Ole Haslestad

32242_2010-09-14 Credit Suisse yara

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Page 1: 32242_2010-09-14 Credit Suisse yara

Yara International ASACredit Suisse Chemical & Ag Conference

New York, 14 September 2010CEO Jørgen Ole Haslestad

Page 2: 32242_2010-09-14 Credit Suisse yara

IR – Date: 2010-09-14

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A business strategy geared for global optimization

Unrivalled presence+ +

UpstreamIndustrial

Downstream

Supply & Trade

Scale advantages

Unique flexibility

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Source: Thomson Worldscope

Yara – a global market leader in fertilizer

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

CF

ICL

K+S

PCS

Agrium

Mosaic*

Yara

20092008

2008 and 2009 revenues, USD billion

* 12 months ending November

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* Incl. companies’ shares of JVsSource: Yara & Fertecon Source: Nitrex-ComplexSource: British Sulphur, EFMA

0123456789

Yara CF Agrium PCS Koch012345678

Yara* Acron Police BASF Rossosh0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Yara Acron Euroc. OCI Chekas.

Yara – the leader in nitrogen fertilizers

Production capacity* (mill t)

Global no 1 in ammonia Global no 1 in nitratesGlobal no 1 in NPK complex fertilizer

Production capacity* (mill t) Production capacity* (mill t)

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Yara plantsJoint venture plantsSales offices

Sales

Global downstream presence with sales offices in more than 50 countries

8%Africa1.6 mil. tons

50%

Europe10 mil tons

12%Asia2.4 mil. tons

13% North America2.6 mil. tons

17% Latin America3.4 mil. tons

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Downstream business creates partnerships

QAFCO

Burrup

Rossosh

LIFECO

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6.6

47.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Yaras operating cash costs are mainly variable

Temporary plant closures can be made speedy and with limited stop/start costs

Example for ammonia/urea plants:– Takes half a week to stop and a

week to start– Cost of stopping is 2 days energy

consumption– Cost of starting is 3 days energy

consumption

Operating cash costs 2009

NOK billions

Variable costs (88%)- Raw materials- Energy- Freight- 3rd party finished fertilizer

Other cash cost (12%)

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* Including equity share of joint venture capacity** Yara European sites without deep sea ammonia import/export terminals: Tertre and Pardies

Yara flexibility to produce or import ammonia in Europe

Yara can swing 2/3 of European ammonia production without affectingfertilizer production

Almost all Yara nitrate and NPK capacity has ammonia import flexibility

Yara can mitigate high European energy costs or take advantageof low ammonia prices by closing ammonia production and run

most of nitrates and NPK based on imported ammonia.

Land-lockedplants** 0.5

5.0 3.2

1.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Yara Europe* Flexible Non-flex

Million tons

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101.2

99.3

102.4

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

28.9

23.2 22.9

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

38.434.2

37.2

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Source: IFA, June 2010

+1%

-3%-21%

Nitrogen consumption Million tons of Nitrogen

Phosphate consumptionMillion tons of P2O5

Potash consumptionMillion tons of K2O

+3%

+9%-1%

Global fertilizer consumption has returned, except for potash

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1,8001,8501,9001,9502,0002,0502,1002,1502,2002,2502,300

99 01 03 05 07 09 11F

Consumption

Production

Source: USDA, August 2010

Grain production and consumption Days of consumption

Million tons

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

99 01 03 05 07 09 11F

May estimate

Reduced from 81 days in May report to 72 days

Grain consumption expected to exceed production

Days

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GHG emissions from farming represent 26% of total emissions

Source: Based on IPCC (2007), Bellarby et al. (2008), *EFMA calculation

Other agricultural GHGs, mainly CH4 (8.4%)

N2O from organic N sources (3.8%)N2O from mineral N fertilizer use (1.3%)*

Agriculture (26%)Production of mineral N fertilizer (0.8%)*

Land use change to agriculture (12%)

Global GHG emissions 2004 = 49 bn t CO2eq

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Fertilizer reduces carbon footprint from farming

Application Nitrates better than urea Precision farming (N-tester etc.) Balanced fertilization (NPK)

Fertilizer - an efficient solar energy catalyst Production marginal part of carbon footprint - efficient application more important Huge positive effects of fertilizer use by lower land use

Production Yara’s production more energy-efficient than

competitor average Yara developed N2O catalyst

© Yara 2010

PRODUCTION TRANSPORTATION FARMING HARVEST CONSUMPTION CAPTURE

3.6 kgCO2 eqv

0.1 kgCO2

5.6 kgCO2 eqv

75 kgCO2

75 kgCO2

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Launched in Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland

Yara fertilizers meet the requirements of Swedish Climate Certification for food

Carbon footprint guarantee to respond consumer demand.

Data and methodology verified by DNV

Yara commits also to support farmers in optimizing fertilizer use

Yara launches carbon footprint guarantee

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Lower GHG emissions from nitrates than urea

* CAN production includes N2O abatement catalyst

Kg CO2 eq/Kg N

Fertilizer production Application to soilLife-cycle perspective:

Production & application

A life-cycle perspective on fertilizers is important(otherwise regulators may wrongly favour urea)

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Positioned to take a share of DEF* market in North America

Strong multiple sourcing position, enabling Yara to respond to demand growth

Transfer of expertise and value of European Air1 leadership position

Partnership with Mansfield, USA’s largest independent fuel distributor

* Diesel Exhaust Fluid, similar to AdBlue in Europe

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Prospects next twelve months

Global demand for agricultural products is strong

USDA estimates a substantial drop in global grain inventories as yield expectations are lowered following less favorable weather

Biofuels can further boost demand if increased US gasoline blending levels are approved

Higher urea price needed to motivate Chinese export increase as domestic energy prices strengthen and Yuan may appreciate

Sales of nitrogen chemicals and TAN continue to increase due to higher industrial and mining activity

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- Sluiskil- Qafco 5&6

Scalable business model geared for profitable expansions

Withdrawal from Terra bidding war demonstrates strict focus on: Capital discipline Attractive valuation

Timing and search for synergies remain essential

- Kemira Growhow- Belle Plaine- Libya- Balderton

Yara’s growth ambition is firm

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0.34 0.34

0.75

0.490.41

0.28

0.63

0.380.35

0.40

0.57

0.42

0.84

0.56

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

2007 2008 2009 2010

Strong balance sheetNet interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)

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Yara’s value creating acquisition track-record

Other key acquisitions: Rossosh: Low cost NPK Burrup: Low cost gas Qafco: Scale and low cost gas Lifeco: Productivity and low cost gas Balderton: Sourcing and trading capabilities

050

100150200250300350

1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09

MNOKBelle Plaine EBITDA

EV/EBITDA multiple of 8 in a supply driven market

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Purchase 2006 Sale 2010

MUSDFosfertil timing

60-70MEUR

~300

Synergies Employee reduction

Soft

Hard

Kemira GrowHowrealized synergies

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More information can be found at www.yara.com

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Additional information

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Yara sensitivities overstate actual volatility of Yara’s cash flow

* Assuming NOK/USD = 5.78, USD/EUR = 1.47 and constant NOK/EUR** Assuming 28% marginal tax rate on underlying business and 288.8 million shares

Operating Income

USD million

EBITDAUSD

million

Operating Income

NOK million

EBITDANOK

millionEPS**NOK

Urea sensitivity +10 USD/t 95 110 552 627 1.70…of which pure Urea 30 40 173 231 0.63

…of which Nitrates 37 40 215 221 0.59

…of which NPK 23 25 133 144 0.37

Nitrate premium +10 USD/t of CAN 81 87 470 505 1.29 …of which pure Nitrates 58 63 338 363 0.93

Ammonia +10 USD/t - 5 - 29 0.07 Phos rock +10 USD/t 10 10 58 58 0.14 Crude oil +1 USD/brl (8) (8) (46) (46) (0.11)Hub gas -- Europe +0.1 USD/MMBtu (10) (11) (53) (62) (0.16)Hub gas – Henry Hub +0.1 USD/MMBtu (3) (3) (15) (15) (0.04)Currency + 0.1 NOK/USD 9 9 127 152 0.37 ...of which translation effect - - 75 100 0.24

...and EUR & NOK net fixed cost 9 9 52 52 0.13

Sensitivities assume full production and no inter-correlation between factors

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Highly profitable shift to hub and spot priced natural gas

Evolution of gas contract structure Europe Yara’s average European gas prices 2009

The strategy of switching to spot based contracts has yielded savings of more than 2 billion NOK in Europe last twelve month

USD/MMBtu

SPOTOIL

30% 20% 20%

SPOTGAS

55% 65%

OIL-LINKED

70 %

25 % 15 %

2006 2009 2010

NAT.GAS

NON-GAS

* Ferrara, Brunsbüttel and Porsgrunn from January 2010

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Oil-linked* Forward Spot

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Wheat15.1%

Rice14.4%

Maize15.3%

Other cereal4.8%

Soybean3.7%

Other oilseed4.4%

Cotton3.6%

Sugar crops4.5%

Fruit & veg17.1%

Other15.6%

Fertilizer market by application

Source: IFA (2008/09)

N + P + K NITROGEN

Wheat17.3%

Rice15.6%

Maize16.8%

Other cereal5.1%

Oilseed6.3%

Cotton3.9%

Sugar crops3.4%

Fruit & veg15.6%

Other16.0%

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0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Index, June 2007=1

07/08

06/07

08/09

Source: European Fertilizer Manufacturing Association, Yara estimate for June 2010

09/10

Low European producer nitrate stocks

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0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

20 %

25 %

30 %

35 %

40 %

45 %

50 %

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Avg 02-07 09/10 season 10/11 season

* Urea fob Black Sea adjusted for freight (USD 35) and duty (6.5%) to calculate a CFR NWE proxy

Strong nitrate market

Nitrate premiumproxy*

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2006 2007 3Q09 1Q10 2Q10

USD/t

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

08/09 09/10

Kilotons

OtherOPP Europe

+26%

-3%

NPK margins*

* Product from Porsgrunn, Glomfjord, Ravenna and Montoir

NPK deliveries

Improved NPK volume mix

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Chinese exports needed to balancethe global market

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2007

Kilotons

Source: BOABC

2008

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

140 %

160 %

180 %

200 %

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan

07 Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

n 08 Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

n 09 Apr Ju

lO

ctJa

n 10 Apr Ju

lO

ct

USD per ton Export tax

Urea fob Black Sea

Export tax2009

2010

Accumulated urea exports Urea price and export tax

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Increasing anthracite coal prices in China

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10.6

13.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2Q10 4Q10 F

BCM

Source: Gaselys

More LNG expected into Europe

4.4

7.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Henry Hub Zeebrugge Hub

USD perMMBtu

LNG imports into UK, Belgium and France

Natural gas price, August contract*

* Based on forward prices as of 7 July

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Non-commercials’ net long position in corn

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10

Thousand contracts

Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission

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Nitrogen deliveries picked up from last season

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

08/09 09/10

Domestic Imports

Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries. Total nitrogen deliveries estimate in USA based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Jul-May 08/09 Jul-May 09/10

Production Net imports

Western EuropeUSA

+6%+4%

+12%

Million tons Million tons

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Indian urea deficit

Source: Indian Statistics

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Kt

04/05

05/06

Sales - Production

06/07

Kharif (July planting) – imports Apr-Sep Rabi (November planting) – imports Oct-Jan

07/0808/09

09/10

10/11

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3.54.4

5.6 5.6

9.6

5.34.4 4.5

5.05.4 5.2

5.96.3

4.1

5.4

7.57.0

12.0

8.4

6.0 6.26.7

7.0 6.7

8.0 8.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10

US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global Zeebrugge day ahead Yara Europe

Spot natural gas versus Yara average*

USD per MMBtu

Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts

Yearly averages 2004 – 2008, quarterly averages for 2009 and 2010 with forward prices for 2010**

* Yara averages include Kemira GrowHow from 4Q 2007**Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 7 July

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Estimated European energy cost

(1,153)

(314)

186 500 550

-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000

-5000

5001,0001,5002,0002,500

4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10

Cos

t cha

nge

on p

revi

ous

year

NOK millions

Actual for quarter July 2010 estimate*

* Based on forward prices as of 7 July

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Yield response of P and K

Phosphate yield effectson Barley in Sweden

Potash yield effects onsilage grass in UK

Source: Yara trials

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Will new capacity come on stream as planned?

Source: Fertecon update June 2010

* Including announced closures only

Year Global urea capacity growth estimate Driving regionsWorld Excluding China World Excluding China

2009 5.0% (5.7%) 1.5% (2.3%) China 82%Oman 8%

Oman 44%Egypt 23%

2010 7.4% (7.7%) 4.2% (4.3%) China 67%Pakistan 5%

Pakistan 16%Trinidad 14%

2011 7.7% (5.3%) 4.2% (3.2%) China 69%Pakistan 7%

Pakistan 24%Qatar 19%

2012 5.0% (3.9%) 3.8% (4.6%) China 57%Algeria 14%

Algeria 33%Vietnam 25%

2013 3.4% (3.3%) 4.8% (4.9%) China 22%UAE 16%

UAE 20%Algeria 20%

Average urea consumption growth has been 4.8% last 5 years, 2.9% excluding China

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2,868

2,3522,135

3,2693,710

3,0022,562

1,956

2,592 2,551 2,451 2,436

2,983

2,347

2,388 2,8272,629

2,835 2,5753,015

2,180

1,540

2,2902,658 2,765

2,3552,146

2,412

5,256 5,1794,763

6,104 6,2846,017

4,742

3,496

4,8825,210 5,216

4,7915,129

4,759

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000Outside Europe Europe

Fertilizer volumes down 9% on last year

Kilotons

2007 2008 2009

Accumulated, Kt

Fin. fertilizer 21,303 20,540 20,099 9,888

2010

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Yara 2Q fertilizer sales by market and product

2,551

764 631 805459

2,347

719485

859

349

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Europe Latin America Asia North America Africa

Kilotons2Q09 2Q10

1,3851,619

1,102

517 380206

1,4581,163 1,075

468 350 245

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

NPK Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CN

Kilotons

2Q09 2Q10

2010: 4.8 million tons (2009: 5.2 million tons)

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Yara – production volume*

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Kilotons

Urea Nitrates NPK CN UAN

* Including share of equity-accounted investees

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Kilotons

Finished fertilizer Ammonia

2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010

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Yara’s targeted step growth categories unchanged

Mature markets

Growth markets

Dis

trib

utio

n

Industrial applications

China

North America Europe

Com

petit

ive

Sour

cing

MiddleEast/Qatar Australia Trinidad FSU

North Africa

SubSahara

India Brazil

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Net debt development

NOK millions

* Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges

** Dividend received from equity-accounted investees

15,227

12,9321,781 220

4,383

963

648

1,228

718 532

6,0007,0008,0009,000

10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,000

Net interest-bearing debt

Mar10

Cash earnings* Dividends received**

Net operating capital change

Fosfertil (net, after tax paid)

Other investments

(net)

Yara dividend and share buybacks

Foreign exchange gain/loss

Other Net interest-bearing debt

Jun10

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Key value drivers – quarterly averages

243 243 249282

236

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10

Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)

246

183202

256239

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10

CAN cif Germany (USD/t)

3.73.2

4.45.1

4.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10

US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu)

5968

75 76 78

0102030405060708090

2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10

Oil Brent blend spot (USD/bbl)

6.5 6.1 5.7 5.9 6.2

0123456789

10

2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10

NOK/USD exchange rate

222 242288

335 333

050

100150200250300350400

2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10

Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t)

Source: The Market , CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank

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Key value drivers – 10-year history

Average prices 1999 - 2008Source: The Market, CERA, Hydro, World Bank, Norges Bank

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10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages

Source: Average of international publications

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

USD/t

Ammonia fob Black Sea

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

USD/t

CAN cif Germany

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

USD/t

Urea prilled fob Black Sea

Average prices 2000 - 2009

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

USD/t

DAP fob US Gulf

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Corporate targets

Solid profitability– CROGI over the cycle > 10% as average

New investment profitability– Hurdle rate: IRR real, after tax > 10%

Relative competitiveness– Gross Return (EBITDA/Total assets) Best quartile of peers

Financial strength– Long-term rating target Mid investment grade

Expected cash return to shareholders– Sum of dividend and buy-backs 40-45% of net income

HSE– Health, Safety and Environment Best quartile of the industry