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Yara International ASACredit Suisse Chemical & Ag Conference
New York, 14 September 2010CEO Jørgen Ole Haslestad
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
1
A business strategy geared for global optimization
Unrivalled presence+ +
UpstreamIndustrial
Downstream
Supply & Trade
Scale advantages
Unique flexibility
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
2
Source: Thomson Worldscope
Yara – a global market leader in fertilizer
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
CF
ICL
K+S
PCS
Agrium
Mosaic*
Yara
20092008
2008 and 2009 revenues, USD billion
* 12 months ending November
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
3
* Incl. companies’ shares of JVsSource: Yara & Fertecon Source: Nitrex-ComplexSource: British Sulphur, EFMA
0123456789
Yara CF Agrium PCS Koch012345678
Yara* Acron Police BASF Rossosh0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Yara Acron Euroc. OCI Chekas.
Yara – the leader in nitrogen fertilizers
Production capacity* (mill t)
Global no 1 in ammonia Global no 1 in nitratesGlobal no 1 in NPK complex fertilizer
Production capacity* (mill t) Production capacity* (mill t)
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
4
Yara plantsJoint venture plantsSales offices
Sales
Global downstream presence with sales offices in more than 50 countries
8%Africa1.6 mil. tons
50%
Europe10 mil tons
12%Asia2.4 mil. tons
13% North America2.6 mil. tons
17% Latin America3.4 mil. tons
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
5
Downstream business creates partnerships
QAFCO
Burrup
Rossosh
LIFECO
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
6
6.6
47.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Yaras operating cash costs are mainly variable
Temporary plant closures can be made speedy and with limited stop/start costs
Example for ammonia/urea plants:– Takes half a week to stop and a
week to start– Cost of stopping is 2 days energy
consumption– Cost of starting is 3 days energy
consumption
Operating cash costs 2009
NOK billions
Variable costs (88%)- Raw materials- Energy- Freight- 3rd party finished fertilizer
Other cash cost (12%)
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
7
* Including equity share of joint venture capacity** Yara European sites without deep sea ammonia import/export terminals: Tertre and Pardies
Yara flexibility to produce or import ammonia in Europe
Yara can swing 2/3 of European ammonia production without affectingfertilizer production
Almost all Yara nitrate and NPK capacity has ammonia import flexibility
Yara can mitigate high European energy costs or take advantageof low ammonia prices by closing ammonia production and run
most of nitrates and NPK based on imported ammonia.
Land-lockedplants** 0.5
5.0 3.2
1.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Yara Europe* Flexible Non-flex
Million tons
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
8
101.2
99.3
102.4
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
28.9
23.2 22.9
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
38.434.2
37.2
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Source: IFA, June 2010
+1%
-3%-21%
Nitrogen consumption Million tons of Nitrogen
Phosphate consumptionMillion tons of P2O5
Potash consumptionMillion tons of K2O
+3%
+9%-1%
Global fertilizer consumption has returned, except for potash
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
9
1,8001,8501,9001,9502,0002,0502,1002,1502,2002,2502,300
99 01 03 05 07 09 11F
Consumption
Production
Source: USDA, August 2010
Grain production and consumption Days of consumption
Million tons
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
99 01 03 05 07 09 11F
May estimate
Reduced from 81 days in May report to 72 days
Grain consumption expected to exceed production
Days
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
10
GHG emissions from farming represent 26% of total emissions
Source: Based on IPCC (2007), Bellarby et al. (2008), *EFMA calculation
Other agricultural GHGs, mainly CH4 (8.4%)
N2O from organic N sources (3.8%)N2O from mineral N fertilizer use (1.3%)*
Agriculture (26%)Production of mineral N fertilizer (0.8%)*
Land use change to agriculture (12%)
Global GHG emissions 2004 = 49 bn t CO2eq
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
11
Fertilizer reduces carbon footprint from farming
Application Nitrates better than urea Precision farming (N-tester etc.) Balanced fertilization (NPK)
Fertilizer - an efficient solar energy catalyst Production marginal part of carbon footprint - efficient application more important Huge positive effects of fertilizer use by lower land use
Production Yara’s production more energy-efficient than
competitor average Yara developed N2O catalyst
© Yara 2010
PRODUCTION TRANSPORTATION FARMING HARVEST CONSUMPTION CAPTURE
3.6 kgCO2 eqv
0.1 kgCO2
5.6 kgCO2 eqv
75 kgCO2
75 kgCO2
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
12
Launched in Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland
Yara fertilizers meet the requirements of Swedish Climate Certification for food
Carbon footprint guarantee to respond consumer demand.
Data and methodology verified by DNV
Yara commits also to support farmers in optimizing fertilizer use
Yara launches carbon footprint guarantee
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
13
Lower GHG emissions from nitrates than urea
* CAN production includes N2O abatement catalyst
Kg CO2 eq/Kg N
Fertilizer production Application to soilLife-cycle perspective:
Production & application
A life-cycle perspective on fertilizers is important(otherwise regulators may wrongly favour urea)
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
14
Positioned to take a share of DEF* market in North America
Strong multiple sourcing position, enabling Yara to respond to demand growth
Transfer of expertise and value of European Air1 leadership position
Partnership with Mansfield, USA’s largest independent fuel distributor
* Diesel Exhaust Fluid, similar to AdBlue in Europe
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
15
Prospects next twelve months
Global demand for agricultural products is strong
USDA estimates a substantial drop in global grain inventories as yield expectations are lowered following less favorable weather
Biofuels can further boost demand if increased US gasoline blending levels are approved
Higher urea price needed to motivate Chinese export increase as domestic energy prices strengthen and Yuan may appreciate
Sales of nitrogen chemicals and TAN continue to increase due to higher industrial and mining activity
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
16
- Sluiskil- Qafco 5&6
Scalable business model geared for profitable expansions
Withdrawal from Terra bidding war demonstrates strict focus on: Capital discipline Attractive valuation
Timing and search for synergies remain essential
- Kemira Growhow- Belle Plaine- Libya- Balderton
Yara’s growth ambition is firm
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
17
0.34 0.34
0.75
0.490.41
0.28
0.63
0.380.35
0.40
0.57
0.42
0.84
0.56
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2007 2008 2009 2010
Strong balance sheetNet interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
18
Yara’s value creating acquisition track-record
Other key acquisitions: Rossosh: Low cost NPK Burrup: Low cost gas Qafco: Scale and low cost gas Lifeco: Productivity and low cost gas Balderton: Sourcing and trading capabilities
050
100150200250300350
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
MNOKBelle Plaine EBITDA
EV/EBITDA multiple of 8 in a supply driven market
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Purchase 2006 Sale 2010
MUSDFosfertil timing
60-70MEUR
~300
Synergies Employee reduction
Soft
Hard
Kemira GrowHowrealized synergies
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
19
More information can be found at www.yara.com
Additional information
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
21
Yara sensitivities overstate actual volatility of Yara’s cash flow
* Assuming NOK/USD = 5.78, USD/EUR = 1.47 and constant NOK/EUR** Assuming 28% marginal tax rate on underlying business and 288.8 million shares
Operating Income
USD million
EBITDAUSD
million
Operating Income
NOK million
EBITDANOK
millionEPS**NOK
Urea sensitivity +10 USD/t 95 110 552 627 1.70…of which pure Urea 30 40 173 231 0.63
…of which Nitrates 37 40 215 221 0.59
…of which NPK 23 25 133 144 0.37
Nitrate premium +10 USD/t of CAN 81 87 470 505 1.29 …of which pure Nitrates 58 63 338 363 0.93
Ammonia +10 USD/t - 5 - 29 0.07 Phos rock +10 USD/t 10 10 58 58 0.14 Crude oil +1 USD/brl (8) (8) (46) (46) (0.11)Hub gas -- Europe +0.1 USD/MMBtu (10) (11) (53) (62) (0.16)Hub gas – Henry Hub +0.1 USD/MMBtu (3) (3) (15) (15) (0.04)Currency + 0.1 NOK/USD 9 9 127 152 0.37 ...of which translation effect - - 75 100 0.24
...and EUR & NOK net fixed cost 9 9 52 52 0.13
Sensitivities assume full production and no inter-correlation between factors
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
22
Highly profitable shift to hub and spot priced natural gas
Evolution of gas contract structure Europe Yara’s average European gas prices 2009
The strategy of switching to spot based contracts has yielded savings of more than 2 billion NOK in Europe last twelve month
USD/MMBtu
SPOTOIL
30% 20% 20%
SPOTGAS
55% 65%
OIL-LINKED
70 %
25 % 15 %
2006 2009 2010
NAT.GAS
NON-GAS
* Ferrara, Brunsbüttel and Porsgrunn from January 2010
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Oil-linked* Forward Spot
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
23
Wheat15.1%
Rice14.4%
Maize15.3%
Other cereal4.8%
Soybean3.7%
Other oilseed4.4%
Cotton3.6%
Sugar crops4.5%
Fruit & veg17.1%
Other15.6%
Fertilizer market by application
Source: IFA (2008/09)
N + P + K NITROGEN
Wheat17.3%
Rice15.6%
Maize16.8%
Other cereal5.1%
Oilseed6.3%
Cotton3.9%
Sugar crops3.4%
Fruit & veg15.6%
Other16.0%
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
24
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Index, June 2007=1
07/08
06/07
08/09
Source: European Fertilizer Manufacturing Association, Yara estimate for June 2010
09/10
Low European producer nitrate stocks
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
25
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
25 %
30 %
35 %
40 %
45 %
50 %
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Avg 02-07 09/10 season 10/11 season
* Urea fob Black Sea adjusted for freight (USD 35) and duty (6.5%) to calculate a CFR NWE proxy
Strong nitrate market
Nitrate premiumproxy*
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2006 2007 3Q09 1Q10 2Q10
USD/t
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
08/09 09/10
Kilotons
OtherOPP Europe
+26%
-3%
NPK margins*
* Product from Porsgrunn, Glomfjord, Ravenna and Montoir
NPK deliveries
Improved NPK volume mix
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
27
Chinese exports needed to balancethe global market
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007
Kilotons
Source: BOABC
2008
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
120 %
140 %
160 %
180 %
200 %
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan
07 Apr Ju
lO
ctJa
n 08 Apr Ju
lO
ctJa
n 09 Apr Ju
lO
ctJa
n 10 Apr Ju
lO
ct
USD per ton Export tax
Urea fob Black Sea
Export tax2009
2010
Accumulated urea exports Urea price and export tax
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
28
Increasing anthracite coal prices in China
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
29
10.6
13.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2Q10 4Q10 F
BCM
Source: Gaselys
More LNG expected into Europe
4.4
7.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Henry Hub Zeebrugge Hub
USD perMMBtu
LNG imports into UK, Belgium and France
Natural gas price, August contract*
* Based on forward prices as of 7 July
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
30
Non-commercials’ net long position in corn
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10
Thousand contracts
Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
31
Nitrogen deliveries picked up from last season
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
08/09 09/10
Domestic Imports
Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries. Total nitrogen deliveries estimate in USA based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Jul-May 08/09 Jul-May 09/10
Production Net imports
Western EuropeUSA
+6%+4%
+12%
Million tons Million tons
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
32
Indian urea deficit
Source: Indian Statistics
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Kt
04/05
05/06
Sales - Production
06/07
Kharif (July planting) – imports Apr-Sep Rabi (November planting) – imports Oct-Jan
07/0808/09
09/10
10/11
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
33
3.54.4
5.6 5.6
9.6
5.34.4 4.5
5.05.4 5.2
5.96.3
4.1
5.4
7.57.0
12.0
8.4
6.0 6.26.7
7.0 6.7
8.0 8.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global Zeebrugge day ahead Yara Europe
Spot natural gas versus Yara average*
USD per MMBtu
Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts
Yearly averages 2004 – 2008, quarterly averages for 2009 and 2010 with forward prices for 2010**
* Yara averages include Kemira GrowHow from 4Q 2007**Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 7 July
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
34
Estimated European energy cost
(1,153)
(314)
186 500 550
-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000
-5000
5001,0001,5002,0002,500
4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
Cos
t cha
nge
on p
revi
ous
year
NOK millions
Actual for quarter July 2010 estimate*
* Based on forward prices as of 7 July
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
35
Yield response of P and K
Phosphate yield effectson Barley in Sweden
Potash yield effects onsilage grass in UK
Source: Yara trials
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
36
Will new capacity come on stream as planned?
Source: Fertecon update June 2010
* Including announced closures only
Year Global urea capacity growth estimate Driving regionsWorld Excluding China World Excluding China
2009 5.0% (5.7%) 1.5% (2.3%) China 82%Oman 8%
Oman 44%Egypt 23%
2010 7.4% (7.7%) 4.2% (4.3%) China 67%Pakistan 5%
Pakistan 16%Trinidad 14%
2011 7.7% (5.3%) 4.2% (3.2%) China 69%Pakistan 7%
Pakistan 24%Qatar 19%
2012 5.0% (3.9%) 3.8% (4.6%) China 57%Algeria 14%
Algeria 33%Vietnam 25%
2013 3.4% (3.3%) 4.8% (4.9%) China 22%UAE 16%
UAE 20%Algeria 20%
Average urea consumption growth has been 4.8% last 5 years, 2.9% excluding China
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
37
2,868
2,3522,135
3,2693,710
3,0022,562
1,956
2,592 2,551 2,451 2,436
2,983
2,347
2,388 2,8272,629
2,835 2,5753,015
2,180
1,540
2,2902,658 2,765
2,3552,146
2,412
5,256 5,1794,763
6,104 6,2846,017
4,742
3,496
4,8825,210 5,216
4,7915,129
4,759
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000Outside Europe Europe
Fertilizer volumes down 9% on last year
Kilotons
2007 2008 2009
Accumulated, Kt
Fin. fertilizer 21,303 20,540 20,099 9,888
2010
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
38
Yara 2Q fertilizer sales by market and product
2,551
764 631 805459
2,347
719485
859
349
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Europe Latin America Asia North America Africa
Kilotons2Q09 2Q10
1,3851,619
1,102
517 380206
1,4581,163 1,075
468 350 245
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
NPK Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CN
Kilotons
2Q09 2Q10
2010: 4.8 million tons (2009: 5.2 million tons)
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
39
Yara – production volume*
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Kilotons
Urea Nitrates NPK CN UAN
* Including share of equity-accounted investees
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Kilotons
Finished fertilizer Ammonia
2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
40
Yara’s targeted step growth categories unchanged
Mature markets
Growth markets
Dis
trib
utio
n
Industrial applications
China
North America Europe
Com
petit
ive
Sour
cing
MiddleEast/Qatar Australia Trinidad FSU
North Africa
SubSahara
India Brazil
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
41
Net debt development
NOK millions
* Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges
** Dividend received from equity-accounted investees
15,227
12,9321,781 220
4,383
963
648
1,228
718 532
6,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,000
Net interest-bearing debt
Mar10
Cash earnings* Dividends received**
Net operating capital change
Fosfertil (net, after tax paid)
Other investments
(net)
Yara dividend and share buybacks
Foreign exchange gain/loss
Other Net interest-bearing debt
Jun10
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
42
Key value drivers – quarterly averages
243 243 249282
236
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)
246
183202
256239
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
CAN cif Germany (USD/t)
3.73.2
4.45.1
4.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu)
5968
75 76 78
0102030405060708090
2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
Oil Brent blend spot (USD/bbl)
6.5 6.1 5.7 5.9 6.2
0123456789
10
2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
NOK/USD exchange rate
222 242288
335 333
050
100150200250300350400
2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t)
Source: The Market , CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
43
Key value drivers – 10-year history
Average prices 1999 - 2008Source: The Market, CERA, Hydro, World Bank, Norges Bank
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
44
10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages
Source: Average of international publications
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USD/t
Ammonia fob Black Sea
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USD/t
CAN cif Germany
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USD/t
Urea prilled fob Black Sea
Average prices 2000 - 2009
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USD/t
DAP fob US Gulf
IR – Date: 2010-09-14
45
Corporate targets
Solid profitability– CROGI over the cycle > 10% as average
New investment profitability– Hurdle rate: IRR real, after tax > 10%
Relative competitiveness– Gross Return (EBITDA/Total assets) Best quartile of peers
Financial strength– Long-term rating target Mid investment grade
Expected cash return to shareholders– Sum of dividend and buy-backs 40-45% of net income
HSE– Health, Safety and Environment Best quartile of the industry