30th International

Workshop on

Statistical Modelling

Johannes Kepler University Linz

July 6 – 10, 2015

Programme

30th IWSM 2015 - Contents

1 Programme 2

2 Schedule 3

3 Poster Presentations 11

4 List of Participants 14

5 Venue 20

6 Venue Map 21

30th IWSM 2015 - Programme

Monday

Tuesd

ay

Wednesd

ay

Thursday

Friday

Open

ing

(09.15–09.30)

ContributedSession1

ContributedSession5

ContributedSession9

ContributedSession11

ContributedSession14

(09.30–10.30)

(08.30–09.50)

(08.30–09.50)

(08.30–09.50)

(09.00–10.20)

Coffee

Break

Coffee

Break

Coffee

Break

Coffee

Break

Coffee

Break

(10.30–11.00)

(09.50–10.20)

(09.50–10.20)

(09.50–10.20)

(10.20–10.50)

Invited

Talk1

Invited

Talk2

Invited

Talk3

Invited

Talk

4Invited

Talk

5(11.00–12.00)

(10.20–11.20)

(10.20–11.20)

(10.20–11.20)

(10.50–11.50)

Short

Break

ContributedSession6

ContributedSession10

SMSAGM

&IW

SM31Advert

ContributedSession15

(11.20–12.00)

(11.30–12.50)

(11.20–12.00)

&Bye-Bye

(11.50–12.45)

Lunch

Lunch

Lunch

Lunch

Lunch

(12.00–13.30)

(12.00–13.00)

(12.50–13.30)

(12.00–13.00)

(12.45–13.30)

HappyBirthday

IWSM

ContributedSession2

Poster

Session1

Excu

rsion

Poster

Session2

(13.30–14.50)

(13.00–15.00)

(14.00–23.00)

(13.00–15.00)

Coffee

Break

(14.50–15.20)

ContributedSession3

ContributedSession7

ContributedSession12

(15.20–16.40)

(15.00–16.20)

(15.00–16.20)

Coffee

Break

Coffee

Break

Coffee

Break

(16.40–17.00)

(16.20–16.50)

(16.20–16.50)

ContributedSession4

ContributedSession8

ContributedSession13

(17.00–18.00)

(16.50–18.10)

(16.50–18.10)

WelcomeRecep

tion

Conference

Dinner

(18.30–21.00)

(20.00–23.00)

30th IWSM 2015 - Schedule

Monday July 6th

08.15–09.15 RegistrationNote that the Registration Desk will be open during all Coffee/Lunch Breaks.

09.15–09.30 Opening

09.30–10.30 Contributed Session 1 Chair: Helga Wagner

09.30–09.50 Gillian Heller, Dominique-Laurent Couturier, Stephane Heritier: Dispersionmodelling for Poisson-inverse Gaussian regression

09.50–10.10 Amanda Fernandez-Fontelo, Pere Puig, Anna Alba: Generalized INAR mod-els with trend and seasonality for veterinary syndromic surveillance

10.10–10.30 Izabela R.C. Oliveira, Geert Molenberghs, Clarice G.B. Demetrio, CarlosT.S. Dias, Claudio L. Souza: Quantifying the genetic contribution to the vari-ability of count traits

10.30–11.00 Coffee Break

11.00–12.00 Invited Talk 1 Chair: Jeff SimonoffJohn Hinde: All statistical models are wrong, some are usable!

12.00–13.30 Lunch

13.30–14.50 Contributed Session 2 Chair: Alan Agresti

13.30–13.50 Moritz Berger, Gerhard Tutz: An extended adjacent categories model account-ing for response styles

13.50–14.10 Matthew Weldon, Andrew Titman: Estimation of two-sided choice models: anapplication to public school choice

14.10–14.30 Jean Peyhardi: New qualitative choice models incorporating individual andchoice characteristics

14.30–14.50 Marianna Siino, Salvatore Fasola, Vito M.R. Muggeo: Penalized logistic re-gression for small or sparse data: interval estimators revisited

14.50–15.20 Coffee Break

30TH IWSM 2015 - SCHEDULE 4

15.20–16.40 Contributed Session 3 Chair: Herwig Friedl

15.20–15.40 Jose Luiz P. da Silva, Enrico A. Colosimo, Fabio N. Demarqui: Doublyrobust-based GEE for the analysis of longitudinal ordinal missing data

15:40–16.00 Maria Kateri, Alan Agresti: Average effect measures for group comparisons inordinal response models

16.00–16.20 Roberto Colombi, Sabrina Giordano: A mixture model for multidimensionalordinal data

16.20–16.40 Micha Schneider, Gerhard Tutz: Variable selection in mixture models for ordi-nal response with an uncertainty component

16.40–17.00 Coffee Break

17.00–18.00 Contributed Session 4 Chair: Jutta Gampe

17.00–17.20 Marco Bottone, Mauro Bernardi, Lea Petrella: Quantile regression: a Bayesianrobust approach

17.20–17.40 Federico Torretta, Vito M.R. Muggeo, Paul H.C. Eilers: P-spline quantileregression with a mixed model algorithm

17.40–18.00 Elisabeth Waldmann, David Taylor-Robinson: Joint modelling of quantileregression and survival time of lung function decline in cystic fibrosis patients

18.30–21.00 Welcome Reception (Venue: Uni-Center, 2nd floor)

30TH IWSM 2015 - SCHEDULE 5

Tuesday July 7th

8.30–9.50 Contributed Session 5 Chair: Vito M.R. Muggeo

8.30–8.50 Abdelkader Ameraoui, Kamal Boukhetala, Jean-Francois Dupuy: Bayesian es-timation of the tail index of a heavy tailed distribution with censoring

8.50–9.10 Stijn Jaspers, Dankmar Bohning, Geert Verbeke, Marc Aerts: Estimation of anMIC distribution using the Vertex Exchange Method

9.10–9.30 Laura Vana, Bettina Grun, Kurt Hornik: Modeling creditworthiness using a gen-eralized linear mixed-effects approach

9.30–9.50 Denis Larocque, Jeffrey S. Simonoff: Model-based mixed effects trees for longitu-dinal and clustered data

9.50–10.20 Coffee Break

10.20–11.20 Invited Talk 2 Chair: Brian MarxSonja Greven: A general framework for functional regression

11.20–12.00 Contributed Session 6 Chair: Brian Marx

11.20–11.40 Sarah Brockhaus, Andreas Fuest, Andreas Mayr, Sonja Greven: Functionalregression models for location, scale and shape applied to stock returns

11.40–12.00 Bernhard Spangl, Sascha Desmettre, Peter Ruckdeschel: Statistical modelsfor dynamics in extreme value processes

12.00–13.00 Lunch

13.00–15.00 Poster Session 1

15.00–16.20 Contributed Session 7 Chair: Philippe Lambert

15.00–15.20 Andreas Groll, Trevor Hastie, Gerhard Tutz: Regularization in Cox frailtymodels

15.20–15.40 Andreas Mayr, Benjamin Hofner, Matthias Schmid: Boosting the discrimina-tory power of survival models via the C-index and stability selection

15.40–16.00 Robson J.M. Machado, Ardo van den Hout: Functional forms for transitionintensities in a progressive three-state model

16.00–16.20 Lida Fallah, John Hinde: Modelling homogeneous and heterogenous populationsunder joint progressive type-II censoring

30TH IWSM 2015 - SCHEDULE 6

16.20–16.50 Coffee Break

16.50–18.10 Contributed Session 8 Chair: Ardo van den Hout

16.50–17.10 Rafael A. Moral, John Hinde, Clarice G.B. Demetrio, Edwin M.M. Ortega:Assessing goodness-of-fit for accelerated failure rate models: An insect ecologycase-study

17.10–17.30 Chiu-Hsieh Hsu, Jeremy Taylor, Chengcheng Hu: Analysis of accelerated fail-ure time data with dependent censoring

17.30–17.50 Vincent Bremhorst, Michaela Kreyenfeld, Philippe Lambert: Time depen-dent variables in cure survival models: An application to the timing of a thirdpregnancy

17.50–18.10 Jutta Gampe, Hein Putter, Paul H.C. Eilers: Hazard modelling for interval-censored data by smoothing within the EM algorithm

30TH IWSM 2015 - SCHEDULE 7

Wednesday July 8th

8.30–9.50 Contributed Session 9 Chair: Mikis Stasinopoulos

8.30–8.50 Bernhard Klingenberg: Multiple comparisons of marginal probabilities followingGEE estimation

8.50–9.10 Maria Iannario, Joseph B. Lang: Testing conditional independence in sets of I×Jtables

9.10–9.30 Gunther Schauberger, Gerhard Tutz: BTL-Lasso – A penalty approach to het-erogeneity in paired comparison data

9.30–9.50 Ioannis Kosmidis, Anyi Zou, Kavya Jagan: Beyond beta regression: modellingpercentages and fractions in the presence of boundary observations

9.50–10.20 Coffee Break

10.20–11.20 Invited Talk 3 Chair: Stefan LangRichard Chandler: Spatiotemporal modelling for environmental applications:challenges and opportunities

11.20–11.30 Short Break

11.30–12.50 Contributed Session 10 Chair: Claire Miller

11.30–11.50 Reto Stauffer, Nikolaus Umlauf, Jakob W. Messner, Georg J. Mayr, AchimZeileis: Spatio-temporal censored model of precipitation climatology

11.50–12.10 Benjamin Hofner, Adam Smith: Boosted negative binomial hurdle models forspatiotemporal abundance of sea birds

12.10–12.30 Nadja Klein, Helmut Herwartz, Thomas Kneib: Geoadditive stochastic fron-tier analysis

12.30–12.50 Nadja Klein, Thomas Kneib: Scale-dependent priors for variance parametersin distributional regression

12.50–13.30 Lunch

14.00–23.00 ExcursionMeeting time & place: 14.00, in front of Unicenter, JKU, see p. 20

30TH IWSM 2015 - SCHEDULE 8

Thursday July 9th

8.30–9.50 Contributed Session 11 Chair: Jean-Francois Dupuy

8.30–8.50 Marco Grzegorczyk, Andrej Aderhold, Dirk Husmeier: Network reconstructionwith realistic models

8.50–9.10 Wim De Mulder, Andre Grow, Geert Molenberghs, Geert Verbeke: Applica-tion of statistical emulation to an agent-based model: assortative mating and thereversal of gender inequality in education in Belgium

9.10–9.30 Matthew C. Edwards, Renate Meyer, Nelson Christensen: Signal extractionand power spectral density estimation: A Bayesian semi-parametric approach

9.30–9.50 Gianluca Frasso, Philippe Lambert, Wilfried Bonou: A Bayesian model for theEbola epidemic in Sierra Leone

9.50–10.20 Coffee Break

10.20–11.20 Invited Talk 4 Chair: Thomas KneibAndrew O. Finley: Bayesian functional data models for coupling high-dimensionalLiDAR and forest variables over large geographic domains

11.20–12.00 SMS AGM & IWSM 31 Advert

12.00–13.00 Lunch

13.00–15.00 Happy Birthday IWSMPoster Session 2

15.00–16.20 Contributed Session 12 Chair: Carlo G. Camarda

15.00–15.20 Lisa Hermans, Geert Molenberghs, Michael G. Kenward, Wim Van der Elst,Vahid Nassiri, Marc Aerts, Geert Verbeke: Clusters with random size: maxi-mum likelihood versus weighted estimation

15.20–15.40 Damien McParland, Isobel Claire Gormley: Clustering mixed data via latentvariable models

15.40–16.00 Francesco Bartolucci, Brian Francis, Silvia Pandolfi, Fulvia Pennoni: Robustmaximum likelihood estimation of latent class models

16.00–16.20 Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Bettina Grun, Paul Hofmarcher, Stefan Humer,Mathias Moser: Understanding economic growth regressions using latent classanalysis

30TH IWSM 2015 - SCHEDULE 9

16.20–16.50 Coffee Break

16.50–18.10 Contributed Session 13 Chair: Emmanuel Lesaffre

16.50–17.10 Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong, Michael G. Kenward: Penalized dis-tributed lag non-linear models

17.10–17.30 Paul H.C. Eilers: Separation of signals with tailored penalties

17.30–17.50 Marıa Xose Rodrıguez-Alvarez, Marıa Durban, Dae-Jin Lee, Paul H.C. Eil-ers: Fast estimation of multidimensional adaptive P-spline models

17.50–18.10 Brian Marx: Varying single-index signal regression

20.00–23.00 Conference Dinner (Venue: Arcotel)

30TH IWSM 2015 - SCHEDULE 10

Friday July 10th

9.00–10.20 Contributed Session 14 Chair: Gillian Heller

9.00–9.20 Philippe Lambert, Michel Denuit: Density estimation from tabulated summarystatistics

9.20–9.40 Ariane Wurbach, Sabine Zinn: Estimation of a general heaping model via random-walk Metropolis algorithms

9.40–10.00 Carlo G. Camarda, Paul H.C. Eilers: Regression models with digit preference

10.00–10.20 Georg M. Goerg, Yuxue Jin, Nicolas Remy, Jim Koehler: How many peoplevisit YouTube? Imputing missing events in panels with excess zeros

10.20–10.50 Coffee Break

10.50–11.50 Invited Talk 5 Chair: Bettina GrunSylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter: Recent advances in sparse Bayesian factor analysis

11.50–12.45 Contributed Session 15 & Bye-Bye Chair: Bettina Grun

11.50–12.10 Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Alexandra Posekany: Merging parallel MCMCoutput with Yin-Yang sampling

12.10–12.30 Johannes Reichl: Estimating marginal likelihoods from the posterior drawsthrough a geometric identity

12.30–12.45 Bye Bye

12.45–13.30 Lunch

30th IWSM 2015 - Poster Presentations

Tuesday July 7th, 13.00 - 15.00, Venue: HS 17

[1] George Agogo, Hilko van der Voet, Laura Trijsburg, Fred A. van Eeuwijk, Pietervan’t Veer, Hendriek Boshuizen: Measurement error modelling for accelerometer activ-ity data using Bayesian integrated nested Laplace approximation

[2] Danilo Alvares, Carmen Armero, Anabel Forte, Luis Galipienso, Antonio Vicent,Luis Rubio: Bayesian multinomial logit model: an application to agriculture

[3] Orasa Anan, Dankmar Bohning, Antonello Maruotti: Population size estimation incapture-recapture data based upon the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution

[4] Autcha Araveeporn: Estimating nonlinear autoregressive models using smoothing splineand penalized spline methods

[5] Haakon Bakka: Log-Gaussian Cox processes with spatially varying second order prop-erties

[6] Somsri Banditvilai, Saowapa Mahakeeta: A receiving process simulation model of theconsumer product distribution center

[7] Edan Bar, Haim Bar: A bivariate index for stock classification

[8] Eva Benkova, Radoslav Harman: Barycentric algorithm for computing D-optimal size-and-cost constrained designs of experiments

[9] Theophile Bigirumurame, Nolen Perualila-Tan, Adetayo Kasim, Ziv Shkedy: In-tegrated analysis of multi-source data in drug discovery experiments using structuralequation models

[10] Angela Bitto, Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter: Achieving shrinkage in the time-varyingparameter models framework

[11] Betsabe Blas: Skew-normal controlled calibration model

[12] Marie Bohnstedt, Jutta Gampe: Density Estimation From Uncertain Observations –Comparing Parametric and Nonparametric Methods

[13] Stella Bollmann, Andreas Holzl, Helmut Kuchenhoff, Moritz Heene, Markus Buhner:Evaluation of a new k-means approach for exploratory clustering of items

[14] Robin Bruyndonckx, Niel Hens, Marc Aerts, Katrien Latour, Boudewijn Catry,Samuel Coenen: Using generalized estimating equations to study persistence of antimi-crobial resistance in respiratory streptococci

[15] Sabit Cakmak, C. Hebbern, J. Vanos, D. Crouse, C. Blanco: Using spatial and landuse regression models in investigating the modifying effect of socioeconomic status on theinteraction between traffic, air pollution and asthma

[16] Marcella Corduas: Modelling correlated ordinal data by a copula approach

[17] Kevin D. Dayaratna, Benjamin Kedem: A probabilistic examination of the efficacy oftort reform via Bayesian semiparametric density ratio modeling

[18] Fernanda De Bastiani, Audrey Helen Mariz de Aquino Cysneiros, Miguel AngelUribe-Opazo, Manuel Galea: Local influence on Gaussian spatial linear model withmultiple replications

[19] Vera Djordjilovic, Monica Chiogna: An improved shrinkage procedure for the estima-tion of covariance matrices in graphical models

[20] Michael Espendiller, Maria Kateri: Measures of association for 2 × 2 tables with aφ-divergence origin

[21] Rosemeire L. Fiaccone, Robin Henderson: Dynamic analysis for event history data:Recurrent infant diarrhoea

[22] Eder Lucio da Fonseca, Airlane Pereira Alencar, Pedro Alberto Morettin: Time-varying cointegration via wavelets

[23] Khuneswari Gopal Pillay, John H. McColl: Model selection and model averaging usingrestrictive strategies for imputation in linear models

[24] Yann Guedon: Slope heuristics for multiple change point models

[25] Jingyi Guo, Havard Rue, Andrea Riebler: Making Bayesian bivariate meta-analysispractice friendly

30TH IWSM 2015 - POSTER PRESENTATIONS 12

[26] Markus Hainy, Christopher C. Drovandi: Approximate Bayesian computation for spa-tial extremes using composite score functions

[27] Philipp Hermann, Milan Stehlık: On some issues on statistical analysis for Wilmstumor

[28] Freddy Hernandez, Mabel Torres-Taborda, Lina Arteaga, Cristina Castro: GAMLSSapplied to study bacterial cellulose yield

[29] Manuel Higueras, David Morina, Pedro Puig, Liz Ainsbury, Kai Rothkamm: A newinverse regression model and software for radiation biodosimetry

[30] Abu Hossain, Robert Rigby, Mikis Stasinopoulos, Marco Enea: Modelling a propor-tion response variable using generalised additive models for location, scale and shape

[31] Maria Iannario, Domenico Piccolo: Analysing ordinal categorical data by means of ageneralized mixture model

[32] Amirhossein Jalali, Alberto Alvarez-Iglesias, John Newell: Dynamic nomogram in R

[33] Gregor Kastner, Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Hedibert Freitas Lopes: Dynamic co-variance estimation using sparse Bayesian factor stochastic volatility models

[34] Lenka Komarkova, Tana Hajdıkova, Arnost Komarek: Model based segmentation ofthe Czech hospitals according to their longitudinal financial performance in 2007 – 2011

[35] Altea Lorenzo-Arribas, Mark J. Brewer, Antony M. Overstall: A simulation studyassessing the advantages of cumulative link models

[36] Gertraud Malsiner-Walli, Bettina Grun, Paul Hofmarcher: Bayesian variable selectionin semi-parameteric growth regression

[37] Valentina Mameli, Monica Musio, Laura Ventura: Simulated adjustment of the signedscoring rule root statistic

[38] Alessandra Marcelletti, Antonello Maruotti, Giovanni Trovato: A flexible bivariatelocation-scale finite mixture approach to economic growth

[39] Kenan Matawie, Arshad Mehar, Anthony Maeder: An approach to determine clustersoverlap for K-means clustering

[40] Luıs Meira-Machado, Marta Sestelo, Andreia Goncalves: Nonparametric estimationof the survival function for ordered multivariate failure time data: a comparative study

Thursday July 9th, 13.00 - 15.00, Venue: HS 17

[41] Silvia Bacci, Francesco Bartolucci, Silvia Pandolfi: Longitudinal data with informativedropout: an approach based on an AR(1) latent process

[42] Mileno Calvacante, Betsabe G. Blas: Beta calibration model with measurement errors

[43] Annette Moller: Spatially adaptive probabilistic temperature forecasting using Marko-vian EMOS

[44] Shirin Moghaddam, John Hinde, Milovan Krnjajic: Flexible models in survival anal-ysis: an illustration

[45] Leacky Muchene, Ziv Shkedy, Tom Jacobs: Estimation of order-restricted mean struc-ture for independent and correlated data using Bayesian Variable Selection (BVS) models

[46] Luiz R. Nakamura, Robert A. Rigby, Dimitrios M. Stasinopoulos, Roseli A. Lean-dro, Cristian Villegas: The Birnbaum-Saunders generalized-t distribution for positiveskewed data

[47] Mu Niu, Maurizio Filippone, Dirk Husmeier, Simon Rogers: Inference in nonlineardifferential equations

[48] Umberto Noe, Maurizio Filippone, Dirk Husmeier: Emulation of ODEs with Gaussianprocesses

[49] Ruth O’Donnell, Claire Miller, Marian Scott: Within lake clustering of high resolutionsatellite retrievals - a functional data and clustering approach

30TH IWSM 2015 - POSTER PRESENTATIONS 13

[50] Adrian O’Hagan: Bayesian Model Averaging for Copula-based Estimation of Upper TailDependence in Loss Distributions

[51] Thiago P. Oliveira, Rafael A. Moral, John Hinde, Clarice G.B. Demetrio, SilvioS. Zocchi, Ana B.R. Zanardo, Italo Delalibera Jr.: Generalized linear mixed modelsapplied to overdispersed proportion data in a fungal occurrence study

[52] Willian Luıs de Oliveira, Carlos Alberto Ribeiro Diniz, Marıa Durban: A generalclass of bivariate regression models for mixed discrete and continuous responses

[53] Johann Ospina-Galindez, Mercedes Andrade-Bejarano, Ramon Giraldo-Henao:Functional regression model of pentadal rainfall of Valle del Cauca (Colombia) in theperiod (1993 – 2011), integrating data from meteorological stations and satellite

[54] Daniela Pauger, Helga Wagner: A comparison of different priors for sparse Bayesianmodelling in regression models with ordinal predictors

[55] Gilberto Paula, C. Relvas: Partially linear models with autoregressive symmetric errors

[56] Elisa Perrone, Werner Muller: Ds-optimality for discriminating between copula models:a first example

[57] Eliane C. Pinheiro, Silvia L.P. Ferrari: A comparative review of generalizations of theGumbel extreme value distribution

[58] Hildete P. Pinheiro, Pranab K. Sen, Aluısio Pinheiro, Samara F. Kiihl: Constrainedhypotheses testing via quasi U-statistics and its application to undergraduate performanceassessment

[59] Hauke Rennies, Thomas Kneib: Structural equation models for dealing with spatialconfounding

[60] Jose S. Romeo, Renate Meyer: Bayesian approach for modelling bivariate survival datathrough the PVF copula

[61] Helene Roth, Stefan Lang: Posterior sensitivity of variance priors in Bayesian structuredadditive regression

[62] Bruno Santos, Heleno Bolfarine: Analysis of Brazil’s presidential election via Bayesianspatial quantile regression

[63] Lukas M. Schafer, Bruce J. Worton: Modelling wind direction with an application

[64] Sabine K. Schnabel, Federico Torretta, Matthias Westhues: Quantifying LD decayby quantile regression – a case study

[65] Max Schneider, Gilles Blanchard, Christian Levers, Tobias Kummerle: Spatial vari-ation of drivers of agricultural abandonment with spatially boosted models

[66] Aliakbar Mastani Shirazi, Kalyan Das, Aluisio Pinheiro: Self-modeling ordinal modelwith time invariant covariates – an application to prostate cancer

[67] Georgy Yu. Sofronov, Nikolay V. Glotov, Olga V. Zhukova: Statistical analysis ofspatial distribution in populations of microspecies of Alchemilla L.

[68] Katia Stefanova, Wallace Cowling, Arthur Gilmour: Use of genetic relationship ma-trices in the prediction of breeding values and their accuracy assessment

[69] James Sweeney: A modified binomial likelihood model for zero and n-inflated count data

[70] Fraser Tough, Charlotte M. Wright, John H. McColl: Conditional weight gain usingan external reference

[71] Diego Tovar-Rios, Rafael Tovar-Cuevas, Mercedes Andrade-Bejarano: Prior elicita-tion for estimation in a mixed effect logistic model

[72] Nikolaus Umlauf, Reto Stauffer, Jakob W. Messner, Georg J. Mayr, Achim Zeileis:A conceptional Lego toolbox for Bayesian distributional regression models

[73] Yannick Vandendijck, Christel Faes, Niel Hens: Geostatistical analysis using K-splinesin the geoadditive model

[74] Kim Van Kerckhove, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens: Do contacts overdistance follow a power-law distribution? Estimation of the social contact distance kernel

[75] Paul Wilson, Jochen Einbeck: A simple and intuitive test for number-inflation ornumber-deflation

30th IWSM 2015 - List of Participants

Agogo, George Wageningen Universityagogogeorge@gmail.com

Agresti, Alan University of Floridaaa@stat.ufl.edu

Alvares da Silva, Danilo University of Valenciadanilo.alvares@gmail.com

Anan, Orasa University of Southamptonorasaanan99@gmail.com

Andrade-Bejarano, Mercedes University of Vallemercedes.andrade@correounivalle.edu.co

Araveeporn, Autcha King Mongkuts Institute of Technology Ladkrabangkaautcha@hotmail.com

Bakka, Haakon Norwegian University of Science and Technologyhaakon.c.bakka@gmail.com

Banditvilai, Somsri King Mongkuts Institute of Technology Ladkrabangkbsomsri@kmitl.ac.th

Bar, Edan Cornell Universityeb538@cornell.edu

Bar, Haim University of Conneticuthaim.bar@uconn.edu

Bartolucci, Francesco University of Perugiafrancesco.bartolucci@unipg.it

Benkova, Eva Johannes Kepler University Linzeva.benkova@jku.at

Berger, Moritz Maximilian Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munichmoritz.berger@stat.uni-muenchen.de

Bigirumurame, Theophile Hasselt UniversityTheophile.Bigirumurame@uhasselt.be

Bitto, Angela Vienna University of Economics and Businessangela.bitto@wu.ac.at

Blas Achic, Betsabe Grimalda Federal University of Pernambucobetsabe.bg@gmail.com

Blix, Katalin University of Tromsøkatalin.blix@uit.no

Bohnstedt, Marie Max-Planck-Institute for Demographic Researchboehnstedt@demogr.mpg.de

Bolfarine, Heleno University of Sao Paulohbolfar@ime.usp.br

Bollmann, Stella Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munichstella.bollmann@psy.lmu.de

Bottone, Marco Sapienza University of Romemarco.bottone@uniroma1.it

Bremhorst, Vincent Universite catholique de Louvainvincent.bremhorst@uclouvain.be

Brewer, Mark Biomathematics and Statistics ScotlandM.Brewer@bioss.ac.uk

Brockhaus, Sarah Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munichsarah.brockhaus@stat.uni-muenchen.de

Bruyndonckx, Robin Hasselt UniversityRobin.Bruyndonckx@uhasselt.be

Cakmak, Sabit Health Canadasabit.cakmak@hc-sc.gc.ca

Camarda, Carlo Giovanni French Institute for Demographic Studiescarlo-giovanni.camarda@ined.fr

Cavalcante, Mileno Petrobras S.A.milenoc@yahoo.com

Cazzaro, Manuela University of Milano-Bicoccamanuela.cazzaro@unimib.it

Chandler, Richard University College Londonr.chandler@ucl.ac.uk

30TH IWSM 2015 - LIST OF PARTICIPANTS 15

Colombi, Roberto University of Bergamoingegneria@unibg.it

Colosimo, Enrico Federal University of Minas Geraisenricoc@est.ufmg.br

Corduas, Marcella University of Naplescorduas@unina.it

Dama, Elisa European Institute of Oncologyelisa.dama@ieo.it

Dayaratna, Kevin The Heritage Foundationkevin.dayaratna@heritage.org

De Bastiani, Fernanda Federal University of Pernambucofernandadebastiani@gmail.com

De Mulder, Wim KU Leuvenwim.demulder@cs.kuleuven.be

De Oliveira, Willian Federal University of Sao Carloswillian26oliveira@gmail.com

Demetrio, Clarice G.B. University of Sao Pauloclarice.demetrio@usp.br

Dittrich, Regina Vienna University of Economics and Businessregina.dittrich@wu.ac.at

Djordjilovic, Vera University of Padovadjordjilovic@stat.unipd.it

Duller, Christine Johannes Kepler University Linzchristine.duller@jku.at

Dupuy, Jean-Francois National Institute for Applied Sciencesjean-francois.dupuy@insa-rennes.fr

Dvorzak, Michaela Joanneum Research Grazmichaela.dvorzak@joanneum.at

Edwards, Matt University College Londonthe.hanataua@gmail.com

Eilers, Paul Erasmus University Medical Centerp.eilers@erasmusmc.nl

Espendiller, Michael RWTH Aachen UniversityEspendiller@stochastik.rwth-aachen.de

Fallah, Lida National University of Ireland Galwayl.fallah22@gmail.com

Fasola, Salvatore University of Palermosalvofaso@yahoo.it

Fernandez, Amanda Autonomous University of Barcelonaamanda@mat.uab.cat

Fiaccone, Rosemeire Federal University of Bahiarose.fiaccone@gmail.com

Finley, Andrew Michigan State Universityfinleya@msu.edu

Fonseca, Eder Lucio da University of Sao Pauloefonseca@ime.usp.br

Frasso, Gianluca University of LiegeGianluca.Frasso@ulg.ac.be

Friedl, Herwig University of Technology Grazhfriedl@tugraz.at

Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia Vienna University of Economics and Businesssylvia.fruehwirth-schnatter@wu.ac.at

Gampe, Jutta Max-Planck-Institute for Demographic Researchgampe@demogr.mpg.de

Gasparrini, Antonio London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicineantonio.gasparrini@lshtm.ac.uk

Giordano, Sabrina University of Calabriasabrina.giordano@unical.it

Goerg, Georg Google, Inc.gmg@google.com

30TH IWSM 2015 - LIST OF PARTICIPANTS 16

Gopal Pillay, Khuneswari University of Glasgowkhuneswari@gmail.com

Greven, Sonja Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munichsonja.greven@stat.uni-muenchen.de

Groll, Andreas Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munichgroll@math.lmu.de

Grun, Bettina Johannes Kepler University Linzbettina.gruen@jku.at

Grzegorczyk, Marco University of Groningenm.a.grzegorczyk@rug.nl

Guedon, Yann CIRAD, UMR AGAPguedon@cirad.fr

Guo, Jingyi Norwegian University of Science and Technologyjingyi.guo@math.ntnu.no

Hainy, Markus Johannes Kepler University Linzmarkus.hainy@jku.at

Heller, Gillian Macquarie Universitygillian.heller@mq.edu.au

Hermann, Philipp Johannes Kepler University Linzphilipp.hermann@jku.at

Hermans, Lisa Hasselt UniversityLisa.Hermans@uhasselt.be

Hernandez Barajas, Freddy National University of Colombiafhernanb@gmail.com

Hinde, John National University of Ireland Galwayjohn.hinde@nuigalway.ie

Hitzl, Wolfgang Paracelsus Medical Universitywolfgang.hitzl@pmu.ac.at

Hofmarcher, Paul Vienna University of Economics and Businesspaul.hofmarcher@wu.ac.at

Hofner, Benjamin Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nurnbergbenjamin.hofner@fau.de

Hossain, Abu London Metropolitan Universityamh0446@my.londonmet.ac.uk

Hsu, Chiu-Hsieh University of Arizonapchhsu@email.arizona.edu

Iannario, Maria University of Naplesmaria.iannario@unina.it

Jalali, Seyed Amirhossein National University of Ireland Galwaya.jalali2@nuigalway.ie

Jaspers, Stijn Hasselt UniversityStijn.Jaspers@uhasselt.be

Kastner, Gregor Vienna University of Economics and Businessgregor.kastner@wu.ac.at

Kateri, Maria RWTH Aachen Universitymaria.kateri@rwth-aachen.de

Klein, Nadja Georg-August-University Gottingennklein@uni-goettingen.de

Klingenberg, Bernhard Williams College Williamstownbklingen@williams.edu

Kneib, Thomas Georg-August-University Gottingentkneib@uni-goettingen.de

Komarek, Arnost Charles University Praguekomarek@karlin.mff.cuni.cz

Komarkova, Lenka University of Economicskomarkol@fm.vse.cz

Kosmidis, Ioannis University College LondonI.kosmidis@ucl.ac.uk

Kuchling, Sabrina Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety Grazsabrina.kuchling@ages.at

30TH IWSM 2015 - LIST OF PARTICIPANTS 17

Kuchenhoff, Helmut Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munichkuechenhoff@stat.uni-muenchen.de

Lambert, Philippe University of Liegep.lambert@ulg.ac.be

Lang, Joseph University of Iowajoseph-lang@uiowa.edu

Lang, Stefan University of Innsbruckstefan.lang@uibk.ac.at

Langthaler, Patrick Paracelsus Medical Universitylangthalerpa@stud.sbg.ac.at

Lee, Dae-Jin Basque Center for Applied Mathematicsdlee@bcamath.org

Lesaffre, Emmanuel KU Leuvenemmanuel.lesaffre@med.kuleuven.be

Long, Qi Emory University Atlantaqlong@emory.edu

Lorenzo-Arribas, Altea Biomathematics and Statistics Scotlandaletalo@hotmail.com

Lu, Ying New York Universityyingtaichi@yahoo.com

Machado, Robson Jose Mariano University College Londonrobson.machado.14@ucl.ac.uk

Malsiner-Walli, Gertraud Johannes Kepler University Linzgertraud.malsiner walli@jku.at

Marcelletti, Alessandra University of Rome “Tor Vergata”ale.marcelletti@gmail.com

Marx, Brian Louisiana State Universitybmarx@lsu.edu

Matawie, Kenan University of Western SydneyK.Matawie@uws.edu.au

Mayr, Andreas Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nurnbergandreas.mayr@fau.de

McParland, Damien University College Dublindamien.mcparland@ucd.ie

Meira-Machado, Luıs University of Minholmachado@math.uminho.pt

Milhoranca, Igor Andre KU Leuvenigor.andremilhoranca@kuleuven.be

Miller, Claire University of Glasgowclaire.miller@glasgow.ac.uk

Moghaddam, Shirin National University of Ireland Galways.moghaddam1@nuigalway.ie

Moller, Annette Georg-August-University Gottingenannette.moeller@agr.uni-goettingen.de

Moral, Rafael University of Sao Paulorafael.moral@usp.br

Muchene, Leacky Hasselt UniversityLeacky.Muchene@uhasselt.be

Muggeo, Vito M.R. University of Palermovito.muggeo@unipa.it

Muller, Werner Johannes Kepler University Linzwerner.mueller@jku.at

Musio, Monica University of Cagliarimmusio@unica.it

Nakamura, Luiz University of Sao Paulolrnakamura@usp.br

Niu, Mu University of GlasgowMu.Niu@glasgow.ac.uk

Noe, Umberto University of Glasgowu.noe.1@research.gla.ac.uk

30TH IWSM 2015 - LIST OF PARTICIPANTS 18

O’Donnell, Ruth University of GlasgowRuth.Haggarty@glasgow.ac.uk

O’Hagan, Adrian University College Dublinadrian.ohagan@hotmail.com

Oliveira, Thiago University of Sao Paulothiago.paula.oliveira@gmail.com

Pauger, Daniela Johannes Kepler University Linzdaniela.pauger@jku.at

Paula, Gilberto University of Sao Paulogiapaula@ime.usp.br

Pennoni, Fulvia University of Milano-Bicoccafulvia.pennoni@unimib.it

Perrone, Elisa Johannes Kepler University Linzelisa.perrone@jku.at

Peyhardi, Jeanjean.peyhardi@gmail.com

Pinheiro, Eliane University of Sao Pauloelianecp@ime.usp.br

Pinheiro, Aluisio State University of CampinasApinheiro.unicamp@gmail.com

Pinheiro, Hildete State University of Campinashildete@ime.unicamp.br

Posekany, Alexandra Vienna University of Economics and Businessalexandra.posekany@wu.ac.at

Puig, Pere Autonomous University of Barcelonappuig@mat.uab.cat

Quintero Sarmiento, Adrian KU Leuvenluisadrian.quinterosarmiento@kuleuven.be

Rappold, Andreas Johannes Kepler University Linzandreas.rappold@jku.at

Reichl, Johannes Energy Institute at the Johannes Kepler University Linzoffice@energieinstitut-linz.at

Rennies, Hauke Georg-August-University Gottingenhrennie@gwdg.de

Rigby, Robert London Metropolitan Universityr.rigby@londonmet.ac.uk

Ringrose, Trevor Cranfield Universityt.j.ringrose@cranfield.ac.uk

Rodrıguez-Alvarez, Marıa Xose University of Vigomxrodriguez@uvigo.es

Romeo, Jose University of Santiagojose.romeo@usach.cl

Roth, Helene University of Innsbruckhelene.roth@uibk.ac.at

Sallinger, Katharina Johannes Kepler University Linzkatharina.sallinger@jku.at

Santos, Bruno Ramos University of Sao Paulobrunodosantos@gmail.com

Schauberger, Gunther Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munichgunther.schauberger@stat.uni-muenchen.de

Schleicher, Corina Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety Grazcorina.schleicher@ages.at

Schnabel, Sabine Wageningen University & Research Centresabine.schnabel@wur.nl

Schneider, Max University of Potsdammaxsch03@uni-potsdam.de

Schneider, Micha Ludwig-Maximilians-University MunichMicha.schneider@stat.uni-muenchen.de

Scinto, Philip The Lubrizol Corporationphil.scinto@lubrizol.com

30TH IWSM 2015 - LIST OF PARTICIPANTS 19

Scott, Marc New York Universitymarc.scott@nyu.edu

Seeber, Gilg University of Innsbruckgilg.seeber@uibk.ac.at

Siebourg-Polster, Juliane Rochejuliane.siebourg-polster@roche.com

Siino, Marianna University of Palermomarianna.siino01@unipa.it

Simonoff, Jeffrey New York Universityjsimonof@stern.nyu.edu

Sofronov, Georgy Macquarie Universitygeorgy.sofronov@mq.edu.au

Spangl, Bernhard University of Natural Resources and Life Sciencesbernhard.spangl@boku.ac.at

Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios London Metropolitan Universityd.stasinopoulos@londonmet.ac.uk

Stauffer, Reto University of Innsbruckreto.stauffer@uibk.ac.at

Stefanova, Katia University of Western Australiakatia.stefanova@uwa.edu.au

Strohmaier, Susanne University of Oslosusanne.strohmaier@medisin.uio.no

Sweeney, James University College Dublinjames.sweeney@ucd.ie

Torretta, Federico University of Palermofederico.torretta@unipa.it

Tough, Fraser University of Glasgowf.tough.1@research.gla.ac.uk

Tovar-Rios, Diego Alejandro University of Vallediego.tovar@correounivalle.edu.co

Tuchler, Regina Austrian Economic Chambersregina.tuechler@wko.at

Umlauf, Nikolaus University of InnsbruckNikolaus.Umlauf@uibk.ac.at

Usuga Manco, Olga Cecilia Udeaolga.usuga@udea.edu.co

Van den Hout, Ardo University College Londonardo.vandenhout@ucl.ac.uk

Van Kerckhove, Kim Hasselt UniversityKim.VanKerckhove@uhasselt.be

Vana, Laura Vienna University of Economics and Businesslaura.vana@wu.ac.at

Vandendijck, Yannick Hasselt UniversityYannick.Vandendijck@uhasselt.be

Wagner, Helga Johannes Kepler University Linzhelga.wagner@jku.at

Waldmann, Elisabeth University of Liverpoolelisabeth.waldmann@liv.ac.uk

Waterman, Richard University of Pennsylvaniawaterman@wharton.upenn.edu

Weldon, Matthew Lancaster Universitym.weldon@lancaster.ac.uk

Wilson, Paul University of Wolverhamptonpauljwilson@wlv.ac.uk

Worton, Bruce University of Edinburghbruce.worton@ed.ac.uk

Wurbach, Ariane Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectoriesaraiane.wuerbach@lifbi.de

Zhou, Caddie Skane University Hospitalcaddie.zhou@skane.se

30th IWSM 2015 - Venue

Managementzentrum Sessions

Altenberger Strasse 69,4040 Linz

The Managementzentrum is the main building for theconference.

Registration as well as all sessions (talks and posterpresentations) and coffee breaks will be on the groundfloor.

Unicenter (Mensa) Welcome Reception

Altenberger Strasse 69,4040 Linz

The Welcome Reception will take place at Unicenter,2nd floor.

All lunches are offered at the Unicenter, ground floor.Friendly staff will help you to change your lunchvouchers into tokens for one of two meals.

The busses for the excursions leave from the place nearthe Unicenter, just in front of the library (Bibliothek).

Arcotel Conference Dinner

Untere Donaulande 9,4020 Linz

The Conference Dinner will take place in Arcotel Linz.

One of our staff members starts at 7.45 p.m. (19.45)at the tram station ”Hauptplatz” for the short walkto the location.

30th IWSM 2015 - Venue Map

30TH IWSM 2015 - VENUE MAP 22

Buildings at Johannes Kepler University Linz

Managementzentrum, ground floor