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RETAIL RESEARCH
Weekly Statistics
Key Indices 14-August % Chg
Sensex 28067 -0.60
Nifty 8519 -0.54
DJIA 17477 +0.60
Nasdaq 5048 +0.09
FTSE 6551 -2.50
DAX 10985 -4.40
Hang Seng 23991 -2.29
Nikkei 20519 -0.99
Bovespa 47508 -2.20
Indonesia Jakarta 4585 -3.88
Singapore – Strait 3114 -2.58
MSCI Emerging Mkt 864 -2.40
MSCI World 1744 -0.20
Mutual Fund Categories watch
Category Name 1 Week
Absolute
1 Month
Absolute
3 Months
Absolute
6 Months
Absolute
1 Year
CAGR
3 Years
CAGR
Arbitrage Funds 0.1 0.48 1.62 3.9 7.87 8.48
Balanced - Debt 0.12 1.1 2.1 1.74 12.14 13.13
Balanced - Equity -0.5 1.65 4.27 1.45 18.6 20.28
Equity - Banking -1.06 0.06 4.7 -2.26 24.81 20.58
Equity – DivYield -1.39 1.75 5.7 1.79 21.76 21.57
Equity - Infras -2.65 -0.37 5.05 1.39 19.1 18.76
Equity - LARGE -0.87 1.81 5.48 0.61 20.31 20.93
Equity - MID -1.91 2.5 8.74 6.43 36.44 32.98
Equity - MULTI -1.32 1.77 5.91 1.93 23.61 23.37
Equity - SMALL -2.31 2.44 8.54 5.78 36.21 31.45
Equity - FMCG -1.61 2.48 5.14 -1.16 21.08 18.58
Equity - Infotech 3.28 9.65 10.92 -0.05 19.98 28.23
Equity - Pharma 3 4.98 11.93 15.89 46.29 35.77
ELSS -1.08 2.01 6.05 1.58 22.96 23.92
Gold ETFs 4.07 -1.23 -6.63 -5.43 -10.63 -6.02
Gilt Funds 0.56 1.32 1.93 1.73 12.44 9.17
Income Funds 0.41 1.15 2.13 2.88 10.6 8.8
Liquid Funds 0.14 0.62 1.92 3.93 8.19 8.46
MIP 0.14 1.25 2.74 2.69 12.2 10.59
Short Term Income 0.24 0.9 2.33 4.12 9.71 9.05
Note: Trailing Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are CAGR. NAV/index values are as on Aug 14, 2015.
Equity Markets
Key benchmark indices edged lower in the week ended Friday, 14 August 2015. After edging lower in first three trading days of the week following a surprise devaluation of the yuan by China, stocks recovered on penultimate day before rallying on last trading day of the week on hopes of interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as wholesale price index as the annual rate of inflation contracted to a decade low in July. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex regained the psychological 28,000 mark after diving below that level during the week. In the week ended Friday, 14 August 2015, the 30-share S&P BSE Sensex declined 0.6% to settle at 28,067.31. The 50-unit CNX Nifty fell 0.54% to settle at 8,518.55. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.9% to settle at 11,453.78. The BSE Small-Cap index declined 2.79% to settle at 11,766.78. The fall in both these indices was higher than the Sensex's decline in percentage terms.
Outlook for the current weeks Trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar, crude oil price movement and the progress of monsoon rains will dictate trend on the bourses in the near term. Shares of public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will be in focus as they undertake a review of fuel prices during the middle of the month. The review takes place during the middle of the month and on the last day of the month based on the average imported oil price in the preceding fortnight. Investors continue to watch the progress of the monsoon rains which will have a bearing on food prices and rural income. India's weather office, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said in a weekly report issued on 13 August 2015, that the rainfall was 31% below normal for the country as a whole during the period from 6 August to 12 August 2015. In its separate daily monsoon update issued on 13 August 2015, IMD said that for the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year's monsoon season was 9% below the Long Period Average (LPA) until 13 August 2015.
Global Markets
U.S. stocks closed higher preserving slim gains over a tumultuous week marked by thin summertime volumes, turmoil abroad and hand-wringing over the timing of the Federal Reserve's plans to raise interest rates. The S&P 500 ended up 0.7% for the week, while the Dow rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq finished the week up 0.1%.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Aug 17, 2015
Weekly Mutual Fund and Debt Report
RETAIL RESEARCH
10 Year G sec Benchmark move:
Liquidity:
Debt Securities Benchmarks watch
Debt (%) 14-Aug 07-Aug Change (bps)
Call Rate 6.80 7.25 -45
CBLO 7.15 5.50 +165
Repo 7.25 7.25 0
Reverse Repo 6.25 6.25 0.
10 Year G sec 7.75 7.81 +6
LIBOR – UK 0.59 0.58 +1
LIBOR – USA 0.31 0.30 +1
LIBOR – Europe -0.02 -0.02 0.00
G sec Markets
Indian bond yields ended lower during the week ended August 14, 2015. The G sec bond yield fell on Monday due to lack of an open market bond sale announcement. Speculations that the slide in crude oil prices will help slow CPI inflation gains from a nine-month high also added pressure on the yield to drop to one month low. Prices of the Government bonds ended slightly lower on Tuesday. Bond market remained relatively resilient. Lack of fresh triggers and caution ahead of release of CPI inflation kept the market in a narrow band. Prices of the Government bonds ended steady on Wednesday as weakness in the rupee against the dollar was offset by lower crude oil prices and expectation of benign retail inflation data. Upbeat market sentiment owing to better-than-expected CPI inflation led to gap up opening in bond market. G sec prices ended higher on Thursday after inflation slowed down more than expectations which brightened prospects of a rate cut by the RBI.
Following the strong opening in previous session, bond market opened on steady note- holding onto its gains on Friday. Bond yields continued to ease on hopes that RBI maybe compelled to cut interest rates following Yuan devaluation. Hence, the yields of the new 10-Year benchmark 7.72% GS 2025 closed down at 7.75% (Rs. 99.81) on Friday against the last week close of 7.81%.
Outlook for the week
We feel that the new 10-year G Sec yields could trade in the 7.65% - 7.90% band for the week.
Liquidity, Call & CBLO
RBI infused average gross liquidity via Repo under LAF window worth Rs. 3,633 Cr in this week compared to an infusion of Rs. 2,390 Cr in previous week. Infusions via the MSF route averaged Rs. 248 Cr. The Call rate ended at 7.07% versus 7.12% compared to previous week’s closing. The CBLO ended at 7.19% compared to 6.78% in the previous week.
RETAIL RESEARCH
AAA Corporate Bond Spread over Gsec: AAA Corporate Bond Spread over Gsec
Security 14-Aug 07-Aug
1 Year 42 46
3 Year 26 20
5 Year 47 43
10 Year 49 48
Forthcoming Auctions; Security Date of Auction Value (Rs. Crs)
91 D T Bill 19-Aug-15 9,000
364 D T Bill 19-Aug-15 5,000
Certificates of Deposits:
Maturity 14-Aug 07-Aug
3 Months 7.47 7.45
6 Months 7.62 7.70
1 Year 7.86 7.95
Commercial Papers:
Maturity 14-Aug 07-Aug
3 Months 7.70 7.80
6 Months 8.05 8.20
1 Year 8.50 8.60
Commodity Update: Commodity 14-Aug 07-Aug Change (%)
NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl) 42.50 43.87 -3.12
Gold (oz/$) 1112.9 1094.10 +1.r
T Bill
The 91-Days T-Bill auction worth Rs 8,000 crore was fully subscribed (7.36% of cut off yield). The 364-Days T-Bill auction worth Rs 6,000 crore was also fully subscribed (7.55% of cut off yield). RBI announced 91 Day T-bill auction and 364 Day T-bill auction for notified amount of Rs 9,000 and Rs 5,000 Cr respectively to be held on 19-Aug-15.
Corporate Debts
The 10 year AAA bond ended at 8.34% compared to 8.41% in previous week. The 1 year AAA bond yield was seen trading at 8.00% compared to 8.15% in the previous week.
Currency
The USD depreciated against the Euro by 1.30% for week ended 14th
August, 2015. The dollar appreciated against the yen by 0.02% for the week. The USD depreciated against the pound by 0.96% for the week.
Gold & Crude oil
International crude oil prices (WTI) ended negative at 3.12% for the week ended 14th
August, 2015 to close at USD 42.50 per barrel. International gold prices rose 1.72% for the week ended 14
th August, 2015
to close at USD 1112.90 per troy ounce.
10 Yr G sec Benchmark Yields Movements in last one month.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Reliance Top 200 Fund- G
RETAIL RESEARCH
Unit Growth of investments Vs. Benchmark(Rebased to 100)
Fund Performance Vis-a-vis Benchmark (Excess return):
Key Points
Reliance Top 200 Fund, one of the above average performing schemes from Equity Diversified Large cap
category, showed better performance in the recent periods.
The scheme registered +26%, +26% and +15% of compounded returns for the one, three and five year
periods while the benchmark – S&P BSE 200 posted +15%, +20% and +9% of returns respectively. Over the
same period, the category clocked +21%, +22% and +12% of CAGR returns respectively.
Reliance Top 200 Fund invests in companies whose market capitalization is within the range of highest
and lowest market capitalization of S&P BSE 200 Index.
The fund manager follows buy and hold strategy as its turnover ratio stood at 30%.The portfolio has been
churned moderately in last one year period as the scheme added 18 new stocks and exited from 17.
HDFC Bank, Tata Mot and ICICI Bank are the stocks topped in its latest portfolio having weights of 6.93%,
5.01% and 5.00% to its net assets respectively.
The expense ratio of 2.53% for the scheme is lower compared to the category (the category average has
been at 2.64%).
Rating agencies like Value research & Crisil assigned ‘3 star’ and ‘CPR 3’ respectively for the scheme.
These reflect above average performance of the scheme on generating high-risk adjusted returns.
The scheme is managed by Mr. Ashwani Kumar since Jun 2007. The corpus of the scheme as per latest
data was at Rs. 1,386 crore.
As far as risk measures are concerned, the scheme seems to be higher risky in the category given its
concentrated investment strategy. The scheme has generated 4.69% (category 4.26%) of Standard
Deviation that calculated from the monthly returns over the last three-year NAV history.
To conclude, though posted average performance during recent period, the scheme managed to deliver
better performance during long run (as far as 5 year returns are concerned, it holds 5th
rank out of 55
schemes in equity diversified large-cap category).
RETAIL RESEARCH
Mutual Fund ready reckoner:
Equity - Diversified - Large CAP
Scheme Name NAV (Rs)
Fund Size (Crs. Rs)
1 Year Return
3 Year Return
5 Year Return
Return Since Inception
Top holdings Crisil Rank
Value Research Rating
Risk Grade
Return Grade
Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity - Plan A (G) INF209K01BR9
167.50 9364 19.03 26.52 14.49 24.40 ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis
RIL & Infosys CPR 2 4 Star Average
Above
Average
HDFC Equity Fund - (G)
INF179K01608 477.37 18032 11.86 23.41 12.67 20.67
SBI, ICICI Bank, Infy, L&T &
Maruti Suzuki CPR 3 2 Star High Average
ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Equity Fund (G)
INF109K01BL4 30.02 9107 16.09 23.73 14.62 16.56
HDFC Bank Ltd, Infosys Ltd, ICICI Bank
Ltd, Axis Bank & HCL Tech CPR 2 5 Star
Below
Average High
Reliance Top 200 Fund (G)*
INF204K01562 24.90 1386 23.66 26.23 14.63 12.14
HDFC Bank, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank,
Maruti Suzuki Ind & L&T CPR 3 3 Star
Above
Average
Above
Average
DSP BR Focus 25 Fund (G)*
INF740K01532 18.16 467 28.63 26.17 11.67 12.35
HDFC Bank, BPCL, TCS, Sun Pharma &
Maruti Suzuki India CPR 3 3 Star
Above
Average Average
UTI-Top 100 Fund (G)*
INF789F01869 50.61 854 21.62 22.67 13.08 12.96
HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Infosys, ICICI
Bank & TCS CPR 2 4 Star Low
Above
Average
*-Recent performance of these schemes is good. Need to watch longer term performance.
Equity - Diversified - Multi CAP
Scheme Name NAV (Rs)
Fund Size (Crs. Rs)
1 Year Return
3 Year Return
5 Year Return
Return Since Inception
Top holdings Crisil Rank
Value Research Rating
Risk Grade
Return Grade
Franklin India High Growth Companies (G) INF090I01981
30.38 2934 37.19 36.30 19.15 14.90 HDFC Bank, SBI, Maruti Suzuki , Axis
Bank & Idea Cellular CPR 1 5 Star
Below
Average High
Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund (G)
INF204K01489 76.05 11319 23.61 26.82 16.98 21.70
HDFC Bank, Divi's Lab, SBI, Bharat
Forge & Cummins India CPR 2 3 Star Average Average
Equity - Diversified - Mid n Small CAP
Scheme Name NAV (Rs)
Fund Size (Crs. Rs)
1 Year Return
3 Year Return
5 Year Return
Return Since Inception
Top holdings Crisil Rank
Value Research Rating
Risk Grade
Return Grade
Reliance Small Cap Fund (G) INF204K01HY3
25.52 1604 31.67 39.42 - 21.28 Vindhya Tele, Orient Cement, HDFC
Bank, LG Balak & Kalpataru Power CPR 3 3 Star
Above
Average High
ICICI Pru Value Discovery Fund (G)
INF109K01AF8 117.07 9770 26.86 33.09 19.86 25.21
ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, RIL, Mahindra
& Mahindra & Wipro CPR 2 4 Star Low
Above
Average
Religare Invesco Mid N Small Cap
INF205K01DN2 36.70 439 33.65 36.56 21.63 20.12
Dish TV India, DB Corporation, Biocon,
Aditya Birla Nuvo & Sanofi Ind CPR 3 4 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
Equity - Tax Planning
Scheme Name NAV (Rs)
Fund Size (Crs. Rs)
1 Year Return
3 Year Return
5 Year Return
Return Since Inception
Top holdings Crisil Rank
Value Research Rating
Risk Grade
Return Grade
AXIS Long Term Equity Fund (G) INF846K01131
31.32 5437 30.76 35.22 21.87 22.75 HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, CPR 1 5 Star Low High
RETAIL RESEARCH
TCS, Sun Pharm & HDFC Ltd
Reliance Tax Saver Fund - (G)
INF204K01GK4 47.00 4393 22.10 30.52 17.87 17.02
TVS Motor Co, SBI, Tata Steel, ACC &
BHEL CPR 2 4 Star High High
Hybrid - Equity Oriented (Atleast 60% in equity)
Scheme Name NAV (Rs)
Fund Size (Crs. Rs)
1 Year Return
3 Year Return
5 Year Return
Return Since Inception
Top holdings Crisil Rank
Value Research Rating
Risk Grade
Return Grade
HDFC Balanced Fund (G) INF179K01392
108.96 4121 18.99 23.00 15.82 17.42 ICICI Bank, Infy, HDFC Bank, SBI
& L&T CPR 2 4 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A (G)
INF277K01303 172.39 3733 26.28 25.71 16.59 17.28
Eq: Axis Bank, HCL Technologies,
HDFC Bank, Glenmark Pha & Infosys CPR 1 5 Star
Below
Average High
HDFC Balanced Fund (G) INF179K01392
108.96 4121 18.99 23.00 15.82 17.42 ICICI Bank, Infy, HDFC Bank, SBI
& L&T CPR 2 4 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
Hybrid - Monthly Income Plan - Long Term (About 15% to 20% in equity)
Scheme Name NAV (Rs)
Fund Size (Crs. Rs)
1 Year Return
3 Year Return
5 Year Return
Return Since Inception
Top holdings Crisil Rank
Value Research Rating
Risk Grade
Return Grade
Reliance Monthly Income Plan (G) INF204K01FD1
33.67 2633 13.64 12.40 9.97 11.06 Eq: Sundaram-Clayton, Federal Mogul
Goetze, HDFC Bank. CP: PFC CPR 2 4 Star
Above
Average
Above
Average
HDFC Monthly Income Plan - LTP (G)
INF179K01AE4 35.15 3815 10.70 12.46 9.83 11.46
Eq: SBI, Infy, ICICI Bank, L&T. Debt:
TATA Power, Hindalco Inds CPR 3 2 Star High
Above
Average
Liquid Funds
Scheme Name NAV (Rs) Fund Size (Crs. Rs)
1 Year Return
2 Year Return
3 Year Return
Return Since Inception
Top Holdings Crisil Rank
Value Research Rating
Risk Grade
Return Grade
HDFC Liquid Fund (G) INF179K01KG8
28.32 18718 8.79 9.27 9.06 7.30 CP: National Bank Agr. Rur. Devp, CD:
National Bank Agr. Rur, Union Bank. CPR 2 3 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
SBI Magnum InstaCash - Cash Plan
INF200K01LJ4 3172.16 1692 8.74 9.25 9.00 7.37
CP: M&M Financial Services, Kotak
Mahindra Prime, PFC, CD: SIDBI 2014 CPR 2 4 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
Ultra Short Term Funds
Scheme Name NAV (Rs)
Fund Size (Crs. Rs)
1 Year Return
2 Year Return
3 Year Return
Return Since Inception
Top Holdings Crisil Rank
Value Research Rating
Risk Grade
Return Grade
ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan - Regular (G) INF109K01746
270.42 12295 9.22 9.84 9.41 8.06 CD: NABARD, Canara Bk, T Bill, CP:
HDFC, Debt: TCFSL CPR 3 3 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
IDFC Ultra Short Term Fund (G)
INF194K01FU8 20.08 2582 9.16 9.80 9.37 7.60
Bonds: PFC, LIC Housing Fin, CD: IDBI,
ING Vysya CPR 4 3 Star Average Average
Short Term Income Funds
Scheme Name NAV Fund Size 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year Return Since Top Holdings CrisilRank Value Research Risk Return
RETAIL RESEARCH
(Rs) (Crs. Rs) Return Return Return Inception Rating Grade Grade
Birla Sun Life Treasury Optimizer - Ret (G) INF209K01LT4
265.79 4643 10.45 10.96 10.01 7.64 Bonds: PFC, LIC Housing Fin, Tata
Capital Fina, Bajaj Finance CPR 1 3 Star
Above
Average High
Franklin India Short Term Income (G)
INF090I01304 2948.10 11219 10.99 11.26 10.15 8.35
PTC: 11.85% Adani Enterprises. Debt:
Dewan Housing Fin CPR 2 4 Star Average
Above
Average
Income Funds
Scheme Name NAV (Rs)
Fund Size (Crs. Rs)
1 Year Return
2 Year Return
3 Year Return
Return Since Inception
Top Holdings Crisil Rank
Value Research Rating
Risk Grade
Return Grade
Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan (G) INF209K01603
17.49 4207 10.65 11.37 10.76 9.22 Debenture: DLF, Tata Mot, IL&FS
Transport, RHC Holdings CPR 4 4 Star Low
Above
Average
Franklin India Corporate Bond Opportunities
(G) INF090I01ET7 14.47 8788 10.68 11.50 10.13 10.71
Debenture: 10.55% JSW Steel, 8.96%
Dolvi Minerals, 12.33% Rel Com. CPR 3 5 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
Gilt Funds
Scheme Name NAV (Rs)
Fund Size (Crs. Rs)
1 Year Return
2 Year Return
3 Year Return
Return Since Inception
Top Holdings Crisil Rank
Value Research Rating
Risk Grade
Return Grade
SBI Magnum Gilt Fund - Long term (G) INF200K01982
30.36 1578 14.44 12.05 11.50 7.92 8.32% GOI 2032, 9.23% GOI 2043,
9.2% GOI 2030, 8.17% GOI 2044 CPR 1 5 Star
Below
Average High
Sundaram Gilt Fund - (G)
INF903J01FA6 23.62 50 8.88 10.70 13.19 6.22
8.83% GOI 2023, 8.28% GOI 2027,
8.6% GOI 2028 & 8.15% GOI 2026 - 5 Star Low High
Notes:
NAV value as on July 24, 2015. Portfolio data as on June 2015.
Returns are trailing and annualized (CAGR).
The notations '5 Star & CPR 1' (used by VR & Crisil respectively) are considered as top in respective rating and ranking scales.
The performance of the funds are rated and classified by Value Research in the following ways. Top 10% funds in each category were classified ‘*****’ funds, the next 22.5% got a ‘****’ star, while the middle 35% got a ‘***’, while the next 22.5% and bottom 10% got ‘**’ and ‘*’ respectively.
The criteria used in computing the CRISIL Composite Performance Rank are Superior Return Score, based on NAVs over the Quarter Ended March 2015, Based on percentile of number of schemes considered in the category, the schemes are ranked as follows: CPR 1- Very Good performance, CPR 2 - Good performance, CPR 3 - Average performance, CPR 4 - Below average and CPR 5 - Relatively weak performance in the category.
Schemes shortlisted based on the corpus and age. Final picks arrived from return score (respective weightage given for rolling returns for 1m, 3m, 6m, 1yr, 2yr & 3yr) and risk score. Schemes from Quantum, Mirae and JM Mutual Funds have not been considered.
* - Recent performance of these schemes is good. Need to watch longer term performance.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Dividend
Scheme Name Record Date Gross (%) Ex-Dividend
Date
L&T Midcap Fund (D) 19-Aug-15 30.00 20-Aug-15
L&T Midcap Fund - Direct (D) 19-Aug-15 30.00 20-Aug-15
Religare Invesco Arbitrage Fund (D) 17-Aug-15 0.40 18-Aug-15
ICICI Pru Dynamic Bond Fund (Div-HY) 17-Aug-15 1.69 18-Aug-15
Religare Invesco Arbitrage Fund - Direct 17-Aug-15 0.40 18-Aug-15
ICICI Pru Dynamic Bond Fund - Direct (Div-HY) 17-Aug-15 1.76 18-Aug-15
NFO:
Scheme name Open Date Close Date Tenure Minimum Investments
Balanced:
ICICI Pru Capital Protection Orient. VIII-J Reg(G) 13-Aug-15 27-Aug-15 5000 1284 Days
UTI-CPO - Sr.VI - I(1098Days) - Reg (G) 10-Aug-15 24-Aug-15 5000 1098 Days
ICICI Pru Capital Protection Orient. VIII-I Reg(G) 08-Aug-15 22-Aug-15 5000 1290 Days
ICICI Pru Capital Protection Orient. VIII-H Reg(G) 04-Aug-15 18-Aug-15 5000 1105 Days
AXIS Hybrid Fund - Series 25 (G) 07-Aug-15 17-Aug-15 5000 1278 Days
Fixed Maturity Plans:
UTI-Dual Advantage FTF Sr.II - I(1998Days)-Reg(G) 14-Aug-15 28-Aug-15 5000 1998 Days
Reliance Dual Advantage FTF - VIII - Plan B (G) 14-Aug-15 28-Aug-15 5000 1099 Days
UTI-FTI - Series XXII - XV(1098Days)-Reg (G) 13-Aug-15 27-Aug-15 5000 1098 Days
Reliance Fixed Horizon - XXIX - Sr.3 (G) 12-Aug-15 25-Aug-15 5000 1113 Days
ICICI Pru FMP - Series 77 - 1162Days Plan R-Reg(G) 14-Aug-15 20-Aug-15 5000 1162 Days
HDFC FMP - 1127Days-Aug 2015(1)(XXXIV) (G) 12-Aug-15 18-Aug-15 5000 1127 Days
Mutual FundNEWS:
JPMorgan Mutual Fund has announced change in exit load structure under both regular plan and direct plan of JPMorgan India Banking & PSU Debt Fund (an open-ended income scheme), with effect from 17 August 2015. Accordingly, the exit load will be: If redeemed within 12 months from the date of allotment in respect of purchase made other than through SIP; if redeemed within 12 months from the date of allotment in respect of each purchase made through SIP, the exit load will be 1.00%. If redeemed after 12 months from the date of allotment in respect of purchase made other than through SIP; if redeemed after 12 months from the date of allotment in respect of each purchase made through SIP, the exit load will be Nil. Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund has announced change in the fund managers for the following debt schemes, with effect from 13 August 2015. Accordingly, Kotak Mahindra Liquid Scheme, Kotak Floater Short Term Scheme, All Fixed Maturity Plans in existence and Kotak Quarterly Interval Plan Series 1 - 9 will be managed by Deepak Agarwal. Mayank Prakash has ceased to be associated with the organization and key personnel of AMC, with effect from 12 August 2015. HSBC Mutual Fund has announced the change in fundamental attributes of HSBC Progressive Themes Fund, with effect from 14 September 2015.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Global Updates: (Source: AMC Newsletters)
India: • Government caps kerosene subsidy at Rs 12/ltr and LPG at Rs 18/kg. • India’s indirect collections rose by 39.1% to Rs 56739 cr in July on account of sharp pick up in excise mop up. • India consumer price index (CPI) inflation for the month of July eased to 3.78% versus 5.40% in June. • India’s index of industrial production (IIP) grew to 3.78% in June following revised 2.51% growth in May. • Government clears Rs 493 cr outlay to promote BPOs • RBI to transfer 25% more by way of surplus funds to the government for the year ended June 30, 2015. • India’s exports fell for the eighth month in a row contracting 10.30% in July to $23.13 bn while the import fell 10.28% in the month to $35.94 bn; trade deficit widened to $12.8 bn in July from
$10.8 bn in June. • India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation plunged to a historic low of -2.4% in June. • India's foreign exchange reserves declined by $113.5 m August 7.
Asia: • Japan’s current index of Economy Watchers' survey rose to 51.6 in July from 51.0 in June. • Japan consumer confidence index fell to 40.3 in July from 41.7 in June. • China’s industrial production rose 6% year-on-year in July, compared with a 6.8% rise in June • China’s retail sales rose 10.5% in July from a year earlier, compared with a 10.6% rise in June. • Japan’s industrial production grew a seasonally adjusted 1.1% month-on-month in June, compared with a 2.1% fall in May. • Japan's economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1.6% in April-June, compared with a 4.5% expansion in the first quarter.
US: • US wholesale inventories climbed by 0.9% in June following a revised 0.6% increase in May. • US labor productivity climbed by 1.3% in the second quarter following a revised 1.1% decrease in the first quarter. • US budget deficit came in at $149 bn in July, $55 bn higher than in the same month a year ago. • US retail sales rose by 0.6% in July, while revised data showed that sales were unchanged in June. • US initial jobless claims edged up to 274,000 in the week ended August 8, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level of 269,000. • US business inventories climbed by 0.8% in June after rising by 0.3% in May. • US import prices fell by 0.9% in July after coming in unchanged in June while the export prices edged down by 0.2% in July after falling by 0.3% in the previous month.
UK:
• UK unemployment rate edged up to 5.6% in Q2 from 5.5% in Q1; the number of people claiming unemployment benefits declined by 4,900 in July from June. Euro Zone:
• The Euro-zone Sentix investor confidence index came in at 18.4 for August, from 18.5 in the previous month. • Germany economic confidence index dropped by 4.7 points to 25 in August. • Euro zone industrial production fell by 0.4% month-on-month in June, following 0.2% decline in May. • Eurozone GDP growth slowed to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 from 0.4% in Q1 • Eurozone CPI inflation fell 0.6% in July following 0.4% decline in the previous month; on annual basis inflation rose 0.2% in July, same as previous month.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Economic Calendar:
Date Country Event Period Frequency Unit Previous
17-08-2015 Japan GDP (Quarter over Quarter) Q2, 2015p Quarterly Percent 1 17-08-2015 Japan GDP (Year over Year) Q2, 2015p Yearly Percent -1 17-08-2015 India Output of Crude oil Jul Monthly mln tn 3.1 17-08-2015 India Output of Refinery Jul Monthly mln tn 18.87 17-08-2015 India Output of Natural gas Jul Monthly bln cu m 2.72 17-08-2015 European Monetary Union Merchandise Trade (Level) Jun, 2015 Monthly Billion 21.2 17-08-2015 US Empire State Mfg Survey (General Business Conditions Index - Level) Aug, 2015 Monthly 3.86 17-08-2015 US Housing Market Index (Housing Market Index) Aug, 2015 Monthly 60 17-08-2015 US E-Commerce Retail Sales (E-Sales Q/Q Change SAAR) Quarterly Percent 3.5 18-08-2015 US Treasury International Capital (Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities) Jun, 2015 Monthly Billion 93 18-08-2015 Japan All Industry Index Jun, 2015 Monthly 0 18-08-2015 UK CPI (Month over Month) Jul, 2015 Monthly Percent 0 18-08-2015 UK Producer Price Index (Output-M/M) Jul, 2015 Monthly Percent 0 18-08-2015 UK CPI (Year over Year) Jul, 2015 Yearly Percent 0 18-08-2015 US Redbook wk8/15, 2015 Weekly 0 18-08-2015 US Redbook (Store Sales Y/Y change) wk8/15, 2015 Yearly Percent 1.9 19-08-2015 Japan Merchandise Trade Jul, 2015 Monthly 0 19-08-2015 Japan Merchandise Trade (Imports-Y/Y) Jul, 2015 Yearly Percent -2.9 19-08-2015 Japan Merchandise Trade (Exports-Y/Y) Jul, 2015 Yearly Percent 9.5 19-08-2015 India 91 day T- Bills auction of Rs 90 bln (cut-off yld) Weekly pct 7.27 19-08-2015 India Reserve Money (change on year) Wk to Aug 14 Weekly pct 10.09 19-08-2015 India M3 (YoY Chg) Wk to Aug 7 Fortnightly pct 11.45 19-08-2015 India 364 day T- Bills auction of Rs 60 bln (cut-off yld) Fortnightly pct 7.58 19-08-2015 US MBA Purchase Applications wk8/14, 2015 Weekly 0 19-08-2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications wk8/14, 2015 Weekly 0 19-08-2015 US Consumer Price Index (CPI - M/M change) Jul, 2015 Monthly Percent 0.3 19-08-2015 US EIA Petroleum Status Report wk8/14, 2015 Weekly 0 20-08-2015 India CPI - Agricultural Labourers(YoY Chg) Jul Monthly pct 4.46 20-08-2015 India CPI - Rural Labourers (YoY Chg) Jul Monthly pct 4.7 20-08-2015 Germany PPI (Month over Month) Jul, 2015 Monthly Percent -0.1 20-08-2015 Germany PPI (Year over Year) Jul, 2015 Yearly Percent -1.4 20-08-2015 UK Retail Sales (Month over Month) Jul, 2015 Monthly Percent -0.2 20-08-2015 UK Retail Sales (Year over Year) Jul, 2015 Yearly Percent 4 20-08-2015 UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Level) Aug, 2015 Monthly -10 20-08-2015 US Jobless Claims wk8/15, 2015 Weekly 0 20-08-2015 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index wk8/16, 2015 Weekly 0 20-08-2015 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (General Business Conditions Index - Level) Aug, 2015 Monthly 5.7 20-08-2015 US Existing Home Sales (Existing Home Sales - Level - SAAR) Jul, 2015 Monthly Million 5.49 20-08-2015 US EIA Natural Gas Report wk8/14, 2015 Weekly 0 21-08-2015 US Money Supply wk8/10, 2015 Weekly 0 21-08-2015 US Fed Balance Sheet wk8/19, 2015 Weekly 0 21-08-2015 India FX reserve (change on wk) Wk to Aug 14 Weekly $ mln -113.5 21-08-2015 India Bank Deposit (YoY Chg) Wk to Aug 7 Fortnightly pct 11.8 21-08-2015 India Bank Credit (YoY Chg) Wk to Aug 7 Fortnightly pct 9.4
RETAIL RESEARCH
Relationship among policy rates and benchmarks:
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation came in at -4.05 for the month of July 2015. It has been in the negative zone for the last nine months. On the other hand, the Consumer Price Index based inflation data (CPI), showed retail inflation fell 3.78% in July. The index of industrial production (IIP) climbed to a four-month high, adding to the evidence that growth was gathering pace. Deposit vs. Advance Growth (YoY)%
The y-o-y growth in scheduled commercial bank (SCB) credit increased at 9.65 per cent in the fortnight ended 07 August 2015. The outstanding SCB credit decreased by Rs.144.1 billion to Rs.65.6 trillion. The food and non-food credit stood at Rs.1.1 trillion and Rs.65.5 trillion, respectively, as on 24 July 2015. The SCB deposit base increased by Rs.10.5 billion to Rs.88.8 trillion during the fortnight. The y-o-y growth in total deposits improved marginally to 11.8 per cent. The demand deposit and time deposit stood at Rs.8 trillion and Rs.81 trillion, respectively, as on 24 July 2015.
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Deposit Growth Credit Growth
Economy Updates US Dollar Vs Indian Rupee
The rupee fell breaching the key psychological 65 to the dollar mark as bearish bets on the currency continued to pile up after the devaluation of the Chinese yuan earlier this week. The rupee’s fall was also accentuated on bets the Reserve Bank of India would cut policy rates ahead of the scheduled September 29 meeting on the back a sharp fall in retail inflation.
WPI Inflation (YoY)
Deflationary trends continued for the ninth month in a row in July with wholesale inflation plunging to a historic low of (-) 4.05% on cheaper vegetable and fuel. The overall inflation based on the wholesale price index was (-) 2.40% in June, It has been in the negative zone since November 2014.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Corporate Bonds Spread Vs Gilt Securities:
Corporate bond yields fell last week. The one year AAA credit spreads fell by 6 basis points while 10 year spread rose by 1 basis points. Liquidity support from RBI (Bn. Rs)
RBI infused average gross liquidity via Repo under LAF window worth Rs. 3,633 Cr in this week compared to an infusion of Rs. 2,390 Cr in previous week. Infusions via the MSF route averaged Rs. 248 Cr. The Call rate ended at 7.07% versus 7.12% compared to previous week’s closing. The CBLO ended at 7.19% compared to 6.78% in the previous week.
Money Stock (M3) (YoY) (%)
Money supply (M3) or broad money fell by Rs.47.2 billion to Rs.109.4 trillion during the fortnight ended 24 July 2015. Out of the components of M3, demand deposits with the banks rose by Rs.123.1 billion to Rs.9 trillion and time deposits contracted by Rs.104.8 billion to Rs.86 trillion. Currency with the public fell by Rs.155.6 billion to Rs.14.2 trillion. Other deposits with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) grew by Rs.90.1 billion to Rs.0.2 trillion. Foreign Exchange Reserves (mn of USD)
India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $188 million in the week ended July 31. RBI’s weekly statistical supplement, showed that India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $353,460.5 million.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Certificates of Deposit (%):
CD rates are trending marginally lower in the recent periods. The CD rates hovered around 7.86% levels (as per the latest data) (one year CD).
Commercial Paper (%):
Rates of Commercial papers are seen trading marginally lower in the recent periods. The CP rates are hovering around 8.5% levels (one year maturity CP).
MF’s net investment in Debt (RsCrs):
In May, MF bought debts worth Rs. 15,956 crore while In June, MF bought worth Rs. 36,331 crore. In July, MF bought debt worth Rs. 30,907 crore.
FII’s net investment in Debt (RsCrs):
In May, FIIs sold debt worth Rs. 8,815 crore. In June, FII bought debts worth Rs. 19,331 crore. In July, FII bought debt worth Rs. 177 crore.
RETAIL RESEARCH
RETAIL RESEARCH Tel: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Corporate Office
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This report has been prepared by the Retail Research team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with those of the other Research teams
(Institutional, PCG) of HDFC Securities Ltd.
