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30 September 2011 Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders

30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

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Page 1: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

30 September 2011

Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders

Page 2: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 2

Trafford Centre introduction

DVD

Corporate overview

David Fischel

Financial details

Matthew Roberts

Trafford Centre overview

Mike Butterworth

Questions

Appendices

Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC | Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders

This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” regarding the belief or current expectations of Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC, its Directors and other members of its

senior management about Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC’s businesses, financial performance and results of operations. These forward-looking statements are not

guarantees of future performance. Rather, they are based on current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which

are outside the control of Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC and are difficult to predict, that may cause actual results, performance or developments to differ materially from any

future results, performance or developments expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this

presentation. Except as required by applicable law, Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC makes no representation or warranty in relation to them and expressly disclaims any

obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC’s expectations with regard thereto or

any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.

Any information contained in this presentation on the price at which shares or other securities in Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC have been bought or sold in the past, or on

the yield on such shares or other securities, should not be relied upon as a guide to future performance.

Page 3: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 3

Corporate overview | David Fischel

Page 4: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 4

Leading specialist UK regional shopping centre REIT | 10 of UK’s top 25

Page 5: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 5

Growth in net rental income (like-for-like) | Recovery continuing

Page 6: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 6

Yield still above CSC’s long-run average | Spread over gilts at historical high

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jun-11

30 June 2011

spread 220bp

6.73%

6.20%

3.98%

CSC weighted average nominal equivalent yield 15 years Gilts IPD UK monthly retail index

Page 7: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 7

Overview of first half results | Sound operating performance

Like-for-like NRI +6.1%

Underlying earnings per share +14%

Occupancy 97%

Footfall +3%

80 long term lettings generating £5m additional rent

Demand for catering units and larger units suitable for flagship stores

Short term leases challenging but only 3% of rent and area

Upside from active management and extensions

Reduced pipeline of new supply of prime retail space

Investor demand for prime product

Page 8: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 8

Net rental income potential

Potential to grow net rental income through reversion to valuer’s ERV

ERV 19% above committed net rent

scope to capture through rent reviews and lease expiries

includes uplift on expiry of short term concessionary leases

Potential for organic growth through active management projects and extensions

key areas of demand include flagships stores, catering & leisure operators and US and other international brands

Page 9: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 9

Leading specialist UK regional shopping centre REIT

CSC well placed despite challenging 2011 UK economic outlook

Unrivalled and irreplaceable portfolio

Pipeline of new UK centres curtailed

long lead time

Continuing structural shift in retail towards prime destinations with strong leisure and catering offerings

“2012-2015 will see a chronic shortage of quality retail space, which will further push up rents, particularly in the UK’s major regional shopping malls”The Times – 31 December 2010

Page 10: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 10

Financial details | Matthew Roberts

Page 11: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 11

Robust financial position | Net debt to assets 48%

30 June 2011

Total properties £6,815m

Net external debt £(3,286)m

Net debt to assets 48%

Cash £164m

Undrawn committed corporate facilities £248m

Net assets £3,167m

Adjusted net assets per share 391p

Weighted average cost of gross debt 5.6%

Weighted average maturity of gross debt 7.5 years

Page 12: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 12

CSC Group debt maturity | as at 30 June 2011

Plan to refinance RCF by end of H1 2012

Weighted average debt maturity of 7.5 years

Largely fixed, weighted average cost 5.6%

£248 million undrawn committed corporate facilities

£27 million additional undrawn committed facility for Cardiff

Headroom of £440m

Page 13: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 13

Underlying earnings

First Half

2011

£m

First Half

2010

£m

Net rental income from continuing operations 177.9 134.5

Administration expenses (11.8) (11.2)

Net finance cost (underlying) (101.5) (85.4)

Underlying earnings of US investment 3.9 4.4

Other(1) (2.2) 1.0

Underlying earnings(2) 66.3 43.3

Interest cover 1.70x 1.52x

Earnings per share (pence) 8.0 7.0

Average shares in issue 828.2 621.7

Dividend per share 5.0 5.0 (1) Includes £2.4 million convertible bond interest charged directly to reserves in financial statements but included in the calculation of EPS

(2) Excludes valuation movements, exceptional items and related tax of £114.6m (first half 2010 £181.0m)

Page 14: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 14

Trafford Centre | Financial details

Page 15: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 15

Trafford Centre loan notes analysis

Initial launch February 2000

Second issue July 2005

Issue size (total) £864.5m

Outstanding amount – 31 August 2011 £752.7m(1)

Fixed: Floating(2)

ratio 65% : 35%

Security Trustee Deutsche Bank

Hedge counterparties Deutsche Bank & RBS

Liquidity facility Lloyds Banking Group

Cash Manager Deutsche Bank

(1) For analysis by class see slide 16

(2) Floating rate notes are fully hedged with interest rate swaps and caps

Page 16: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 16

Analysis by class

Oct 20228.28%BBB50.0D2

April 2035Libor +0.80%BBB29.0D1(N)

July 2038Libor +0.33%AA20.0B2

July 20297.03%AA96.5B

July 2038Libor +0.29%AAA188.5A3

July 20336.50%AAA340.0A2

July 2015Libor +0.20%AAA28.7A1 (N)

MaturityCoupon RatingAmount

£m

Class

Page 17: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 17

Amortisation profile

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Ja

n-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Jan

-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ja

n-2

1

Jan

-22

Jan

-23

Ja

n-2

4

Ja

n-2

5

Ja

n-2

6

Ja

n-2

7

Ja

n-2

8

Jan

-29

Jan

-30

Jan

-31

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n-3

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n-3

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n-3

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Ba

lan

ce

of

No

tes

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tsta

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(£m

)

B2 A3 D1N A2 B D2 A1N

Page 18: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 18

Debt Service Cover Ratio (DSCR)

June 2011 Quarterly report 1.2 : 1

Components(1)

:

Rental and other income less costs £76.1 million

Interest payments and note amortisation(2)

£63.2 million

(1) Calculated using twelve month historic cash flows

(2) £48.0m interest, £15.2m amortisation

Page 19: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 19

DSCR history | Improving due to increasing rental income

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11

Page 20: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 20

Valuation

Valuation of £1,650m including Barton Square and other land (£85m) as at 30 June 2011

Trafford Centre (excluding Barton Square) net initial yield of 5.09% and nominal equivalent yield of 5.60%

Trafford Centre valuation of £1,565m gives outstanding loan note to value ratio of 48%

Rent

Annual property income of £85m including Barton Square (£3m); ERV of £105m

Headline rent prime ITZA psf £400

Key Trafford Centre metrics

Site location

Page 21: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 21

Trafford Centre financial results

(34.8)(25.1)Net interest payable

0.4-Profit on disposal of fixed assets

76.857.3Net rental income

42.432.2Profit before taxation

(6.1)(4.8)Property and other costs

1.22.5Other income

81.759.6Gross rental income

12 months ended

31 Mar 2010

£m

9 months ended

31 Dec 2010

£m

Source: Audited financial statements of The Trafford Centre Limited, UK GAAP

Page 22: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 22

Trafford Centre overview | Mike Butterworth

Page 23: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 23

200 units (including over 65 catering and leisure units); approximately 1.4m sq. ft. retail and 0.3m sq. ft. catering and leisure space over 2 levels

Anchor tenants: Selfridges, Debenhams, John Lewis and Marks & Spencer

Current occupancy rate of 97%* by rent as at 30 June 2011

Opened to public in September 1998

In addition, major 240,000 sq. ft. homeware and leisure extension (Barton Square) opened in 2008

Significant redevelopment of main entrance for additional catering in 2007 (The Great Hall)

Trafford Centre | overview

Site location* Occupancy defined as passing rent of let and under offer units expressed as a percentage of the passing rent of let and under offer units plus ERV of unlet units, excluding

development and recently completed properties. Units let to tenants currently in administration assumed unlet

Page 24: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 24

UK’s top ranked shopping centres

BasingstokeFestival Place18

PeterboroughQueensgate Centre35LeicesterHighcross17

TelfordThe Round (Telford Shopping Centre)34Milton KeynesThe centre: mk16

DoncasterFrenchgate Centre33CardiffSt David's15

NottinghamVictoria Centre32ManchesterThe Arndale14

BrightonChurchill Square31Brierley Hill Merry Hill Shopping Centre13

NorwichChapelfield30DerbyWestfield Derby12

GlasgowBuchanan Galleries29BirminghamBull Ring11

WarringtonGolden Square28LiverpoolLiverpool One10

GlasgowSilverburn27LondonBrent Cross9

ReadingThe Oracle26BristolCabot Circus8

GlasgowBraehead25GatesheadMetrocentre7

GlasgowEast Kilbride Shopping Centre24BristolThe Mall at Cribbs Causeway6

LeedsWhite Rose Shopping Centre23ThurrockLakeside5

NewcastleEldon Square22ManchesterThe Trafford Centre4

SouthamptonWest Quay21SheffieldMeadowhall3

BromleyThe Glades20GreenhitheBluewater2

WatfordThe Harlequin19LondonWestfield 1

LocationCentreLocationCentre

Source: PMA

* Top shopping centres on basis of PMA Retail Score (2010). CSC shopping centres highlighted

Page 25: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 25

Large catchment area – 8.9 million people live within a 70-minute drive, 4.8 million within 45 minutes

Wealthy demographic - over 69% ABC1*, well above national average

Consistent footfall growth since opening to over 30 million per annum

Estimated 8% year-on-year increase first half 2011

25% footfall growth 2007-2010

Loyal customer base: 21% of visitors visit at least once per week and 56% visit at least monthly

The Trafford Centre is complementary to Manchester Arndale in the city centre

Located c. 6 miles west of Manchester city centre immediately adjoining M60 motorway near its junction with the M6. 11,500 car and 350 coach parking spaces. 85% arrive by car and 15% by public transport.

Catchment | North West is UK’s largest regional retail market outside London & the S.E.

Source: Experian

* UK social groups A, B and C1, defined as members of households whose chief earner’s occupation is professional, higher or intermediate management or supervisory

70 minute drivetime around Trafford Centre

Page 26: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 26

Retail mix

Page 27: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 27

Department stores: Selfridges, Debenhams and John Lewis

Other major tenants: Marks & Spencer, Boots, Bhs

Retailers significantly expanding in 2011 include:

Marks & Spencer, Debenhams (expansion into adjacent units)

Dune (new flagship store)

Thomas Sabo

New retailers in 2011 include:

Banana Republic (first in the North)

VANS

Boux Avenue

Ted Baker

Circle 360 champagne bar

Retail mix

Site location

Books/Cards

4%

Ladieswear

12%

Menswear

5%Mixed: Ladies

& Menswear

22%

Other

26%

Jewellers

Anchor

Tenants

15%

Footwear

8%

Phone

Retailers inc.

Mobiles

4%

Analysis of rental income by Sales Category (shops only)

* Other includes banks, childrenswear, confectionery, electrical computer retailers, gifts / soft furnishings / furniture, health and beauty, opticians, outdoor clothing / equipment, music

retailers, sportswear, toys and travel agents

Page 28: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 28

Top 20 tenants

Rank Tenant Group % Rent

1 Arcadia (1) 4%

2 Selfridges 3%

3 Debenhams 3%

4 Next 2%

5 Marks & Spencer 2%

6 H & M 2%

7 J D Sports (2)

2%

8 Odeon 2%

9 Boots 2%

10 W H Smith 2%

11 Aurora Group (3)

2%

12 John Lewis 1%

13 River Island 1%

14 HMV 1%

15 Zara 1%

16 Waterstones 1%

17 Hollister 1%

18 Monsoon 1%

19 Superdry 1%

20 JJB Sports 1%

Top 20 Tenants total 36%

(1) Includes BHS

(2) Includes Bank and Cecil Gee

(3) Includes Oasis, Karen Millen, Warehouse and Coast

Page 29: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 29

Catering and leisure

Page 30: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 30

c. 310,000 sq. ft. devoted to catering & leisure

Over 65 catering units generating an estimated £80m annual turnover

Themed areas - The Orient, The Great Hall –adding a sense of theatre

An unrivalled leisure offer including:

Odeon Multiplex cinema

LEGOLAND Discovery Centre

Paradise Island Adventure Golf

Aerial Extreme (high ropes adventure course)

Events include:

Celebrity Christmas lights switch on

high profile fashion shows

firework displays

Santa’s arrival parade

Catering and leisure

Site location

Page 31: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 31

Leisure

Site location

Page 32: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 32

Opportunities

Page 33: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 33

Overview of rent review cycle and lease maturities | Significant opportunity in 2013

Lease maturities*Rent reviews*

6%5%

8%

36%

3%

7%

3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2010 and earlier 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1% 1%

21%

2%4%

3%4%

8%

2%

10%

44%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021+

* As % of 30 June 2011 passing rent

Page 34: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 34

Scope for asset management initiatives at The Trafford Centre including:

Original structure built to accommodate additional floors enabling cost effective expansion, e.g.

above Debenhams

along link bridge to Barton Square

Opportunities to introduce MSU flagship stores (only 8 MSUs compared to 14 at Lakeside)

Conversion of dormant space to additional retail, subject to planning permission

Creation of space to enable unit re-configurations

Estimated capex £17 million

Significant asset management opportunities to grow ERV | The Trafford Centre

Site location Identified Opportunities

Barton Square

Page 35: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 35

Homeware & leisure extension opened in 2008, including Next, Dwell, British HOME Stores, Laura Ashley Home, Natuzzi

Being established as a major homewares destination

Scope for continued strengthening, including of tourist destination and retail mix

Structure can accommodate additional floor enabling cost effective expansion subject to planning permission

Central courtyard enclosure plans -planning consent granted

Estimated capex £33 million

Significant asset management opportunities to grow ERV| Barton Square

Site locationIdentified Opportunities

Barton Square

Page 36: 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011  · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew Roberts Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth ... Amortisation profile 0 100 200

Slide 36

Questions