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Cold War reloaded—Front Line Syria

by Jakob Reimann  December 10, 2015 No Comments 

Syria is now the front line of a new Cold War between the S and R!ssia"

#fter R!ssia$s inter%ention in the war in Syria, the &iddle 'astern co!ntry is now

the second bi( arena in a new Cold War )incl!din( also the war in kraine*" +heower-olitical interests of the two old enemies, the S# and R!ssia, are bein(

concet!ally intertwined with those of re(ional owers in the &iddle 'ast )i"e" Sa!di

#rabia./ran* alon( &!slim-confessional lines res!ltin( in an eistentially dan(ero!s

sit!ation"

rom the so!thwest Casian Sea, near the #erbai3ani-/ranian border, in early

4ctober, fo!r R!ssian na%al %essels sent a total n!mber of 2 cr!ise missiles on their

1,500 km 3o!rney, at the end of which ele%en /slamic State )/S* tar(ets were

destroyed witho!t ha%in( to mo!rn any ci%ilian cas!alties, Shoi(!, the R!ssian

minister of war, has reorted" Western military officers as well as olitical

commentators %oiced their incomrehension abo!t this odd R!ssian military strike6

the missiles, howe%er, had to fly across /ran and /ra7 as well as east Syria in order

to take their f!ll elosi%e effect in the west of Syria"

+he saber-rattlin( of the old days

#s in the days before6and far less histrionic6the R!ssian military co!ld ha%e

shelled the /slamic State )/S* tar(ets with fi(hter 3ets or from their only military

base in the &editerranean Sea in the Syrian ort city of +art!s" 8!t this

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ea((erated mane!%er from the Casian Sea had a deeer strate(ical sense9 sea-

la!nched cr!ise missiles are commonly a :secialty; of the S-military in its wars of

a((ression o%erseas" With this action R!ssia tried to s!((est its military has

alle(edly ca!(ht ! with that of the S#"

+he act!al recei%er of &oscow$s media-effecti%e dislay of the attack, th!s, was notthe terrorists of the /slamic State b!t rather the S-leadershi in Washin(ton9

R!ssia is back on the (lobal sta(e of the owerf!l )<at least militarily*6which is the

emitted messa(e"

+his military m!scle lays en7!e!e in the escalation siral both sides ha%e been

twistin( relentlessly since the o!tbreak of the krainian crisis in ebr!ary 201="

+he N#+4 alliance more than triled the stren(th of the N#+4 Resonse orce by

ramin( ! its contin(ent from 1>,000 ! to =0,000? the S# is deloyin( hea%y

military e7!iment to eastern '!roe? and the S military is holdin( 3oint military

eercises alon( R!ssia$s borders, as well as in the non-N#+4 co!ntry @eor(ia" R!ssiafor its art s!orts the searatist mo%ement in east kraine with weaons and

troos and ro%okes with h!ndreds of mane!%ers of its air force at the N#+4 o!ter

borders"

+hese dramatic de%eloments in 'ast-West-relationshis6)Who in earnest co!ld

ha%e ima(ined we wo!ld backslide to think in these old, dichotomo!s cate(ories in the

 year 2015A*6ine%itably remind !s of the saber-rattlin( of the old days" +hose days

of the Cold War that were belie%ed to ha%e ended once and for all"

We stand at the o!tset of a new Cold War"

New and old concets of enemy

While @ermany is celebratin( the 25th anni%ersary of its re!nification, two old

enemies find themsel%es anew on the oosite sides in two war theatres9 for almost

two years in the krainian war and now at the front line Syria"

# 7!arter-cent!ry after the all of the 8erlin Wall, the world is more comle and,

hence, less calc!lable" #fter caitalism$s defeat o%er comm!nism, the %ictors of back

in the days (lorified the alle(ed :'nd of Bistory;" 8!t the ayo!t of the often

romised and lon(in(ly hoed-for eace di%idend ne%er really haened"

+he (ate to a comrehensi%e and eace-romotin( demilitariation on a (lobal scale6incl!din( the dissol!tion of the N#+4 alliance that has become obsolete6was wider

oen than it had e%er been since the fall of Nai @ermany" @en!ine ambitions to ass

this (ate were non-eistent on the le%el of the heads of states"

With the collase of the So%iet nion the West lost its identity-establishin( enemy"

#t last since the 11-attacks, howe%er, :the comm!nist; as the scraed concet of

enemy was relaced by that of :the &!slim terrorist;" +he :War on

+error;, roclaimed by the 8!sh re(ime in 2001, a%ed the way for an endless,

ermanent war that knows no national bo!ndaries"

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/n #f(hanistan, /ra7, Eakistan, Somalia, Femen, the Ehiliines, /ndia, &ali, Gibya,

S!dan, Ealestine, Ni(eria, Gebanon and Syria a %ariety of war theatres was initiated

or conflicts already in lace were mis!sed to inter%ene in order to breathe in deadly

life to the :War on +error;"

R!ssia, back on its feet a(ain, tries to comete for its osition in this no%el (lobalconflict architect!re in which the N#+4-states ! to now ha%e held the ecl!si%e

rero(ati%e of interretation and of inter%ention" Since the o!tb!rst of the

krainian crisis in 201=, :the R!ssian; was reacti%ated as the Western$s bo(eyman

and comlements :the &!slim terrorist; in an ideolo(ical as well as in a concet!al-

strate(ic manner"

S# and R!ssia6hand in hand on terrorist h!ntA

Since the end of Setember, finally, R!ssia has been an official war arty in Syria as

well, la!nchin( scores of air strikes on %ario!s terrorist or(aniations in the

co!ntry killin( scores of ci%ilians d!rin( the attacks" /n an almost biarre manner,R!ssia !rs!es the same anti-terror rhetoric to 3!stify its entry into the war that

we ha%e (ot !sed to hear from the West in the last 1= years9 R!ssia is la!nchin( air

strikes a(ainst /S tar(ets in order to combat the international terrorism, the

official line of the Hremlin reads" +he R!ssian rhetoric is as mendacio!s as that of

the West and belies its act!al intentions"

rom the be(innin( of the R!ssian air strikes, Washin(ton raised the alle(ations that

&oscow was not tar(etin( /S combatants b!t fi(hters of the Syrian oosition that

are backed by the S#" +he indeendent and renowned /nstit!te for the St!dy of

War comiles the tar(ets of the R!ssian air strikes in a constantly !dated

ma which seaks for itself"

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R!ssian air strikes )No%ember >0-December * tar(et in a %ast ma3ority areas in

northwest Syria controlled by oosition fi(hters" Strikes on /S ositions remainecetional" )Co!rtesy of the /nstit!te for the St!dy of Wars*

+he %ast ma3ority of the R!ssian air strikes tar(ets, indeed, are in areas in the

northwest of Syria that are controlled by rebels as well as the embattled ma3or

cities of Bama, #leo and Damasc!s" Strikes on /S ositions remain a rare e%ent

and merely ser%e to maintain the official war %indication of :war a(ainst terror;"

R!ssia$s act!al intention, howe%er, is ob%io!s9 E!tin wants to ro ! his close ally

#ssad" Be wants to recat!re territory lost by the Syrian army and, hence, fi(hts

rebel (ro!s that want to o!st the #ssad re(ime from ower" +hese rebels, in fact,

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are backed by the 4bama administration" #mon( the cas!alties of the R!ssian air

strikes, th!s, are elicitly troos trained by the S military"

+he S# mis!ses the attacks on their allied rebel troos to 3!stify f!rther massi%e

armament s!ly to Syria" +ime and a(ain, distinct terror (ro!s rofit from these

s!lies, s!ch as the al-N!sra ront and, most cynically, the alle(ed main enemy9 the/slamic State )/S*"

4ne official with a rebel (ro! describes the armament s!ly as :carte blanche;9

:We can (et as m!ch as we need and whene%er we need them" J!st fill in the

n!mbers";

+he S inter%ention is no more confined only to arms s!lies and lo(istics" Eresident

4bama anno!nced to send a contin(ent of S secial forces to Syria" +hereby,

4bama commits breach of his !nremittin(ly reeated romise of :no boots on the

(ro!nd in Syria;" #nd, finally, R!ssian and S troos stand on oosite sides of the

front line Syria"Syria6a meltin( ot of forei(n interests

/n contrast to the oa7!e constellation in kraine where !nofficial S #cademi

mercenaries )former 8lackwater* fi(ht a(ainst !nofficial R!ssian soldiers in the east

of the co!ntry, it is the official troos of both co!ntries on the (ro!nd in Syria" /t is

only a matter of time !ntil a S-#merican kills a R!ssian or %ice %ersa " / wo!ld not

like to ima(ine how E!tin or 4bama will react in this scenario"

or the sake of a democratic transition, the

S bet on the rebels of the ree Syrian #rmy )S#*" C!rrently, R!ssia is bombin(

these rebels" )Ehoto co!rtesy of Dr" Daniele @anser, S/E'R*

#t the si(ht of the recent de%eloments e%en 7!ite ro(ressi%e commentators call

for a militarily stron( #merica demonstratin( leadershi" orei(n Eolicy$s Da%id

Rothkof de(rades Syria to a nation witho!t a tr!e a(enda of its own for the stron(

leadin( S# to make a military eamle6Syria as a f!rther awn sacrifice in the

(eoolitical chess (ame of forei(n layers"

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+his ersecti%e stron(ly reminds of the times of the old Cold War when whole

co!ntries, s!ch as Iietnam or #f(hanistan, were (rinded in between imerialistic

a((ressions of the two hostile blocks"

Syria co!ld become the t!rnin( oint in the clash of the :last s!erower; and R!ssia

back on its feet a(ain"+he balance of ower, howe%er, did not only shift in the last 25 years, b!t became

s!bstantially more m!ltilayered, more comle and, hence, less redictable as the

case of Syria ill!strates"

N#+4-affiliated and massi%ely armin( @!lf dictatorshis do not only s!ort S

backed :moderate; rebels, b!t also the roclaimed main enemy of the West6the

/slamic State" irst and foremost the fascistic oil monarchy Sa!di #rabia that

becomes increasin(ly erilo!s and !nredictable, not only d!e to its ambitions for

n!clear armament" +he S#, #!stralia, @reat 8ritain, Jordan, a %ariety of other

co!ntries and esecially rance6blind with ra(e after the recent Earis terrorattacks6la!nch steady air strikes on different (ro!s in Syria"

4n the other side, in s!ort of the #ssad re(ime, net to R!ssia there is /ran

economically as well as militarily stren(thened" Iia its roy in Gebanon, the Shiite

Bebollah, +eheran has been an indirect arty in this war since its be(innin(, and now

directly entered the war one with tho!sands of (ro!nd troos, too" #nd more and

more there is China anno!ncin( its readiness to 3oin in the fi(ht a(ainst terrorism in

cooeration with R!ssia"

#nd there is the @erman (o%ernment that adds f!el to the fire at all the hot sots

ro%idin( arms to H!rds in the north, /ra7is in the east and Sa!dis in the so!th" /n

contrary to its ostensi%e assi%e role comm!nicated to the o!tside, from the

incetion of the war in Syria the &erkel (o%ernment has to be %ery well assessed an

acti%e layer in the war with its ille(al arms s!lies that reresent a breach of the

@erman constit!tion" +he latest decision of the 8!ndesta( to send si :+ornado;

warlanes, a fri(ate and ! to 1,200 soldiers to Syria a%ed the way to enter the

most etensi%e of all6then61= c!rrent 8!ndeswehr missions"

/n the old Cold War, the two hostile blocks fo!(ht with the comlicity of ro-

Western roy (o%ernments a(ainst ro-So%iets alon( the economic ideolo(ical frontline caitalism6comm!nism" /n the new Cold War with its c!rrent main sta(e, Syria,

howe%er, the roies are lined ! alon( &!slim-confessional lines9 a Western-backed

!rose alliance between S!nni oil monarchies )Sa!di #rabia abo%e all* and S!nni

radical /slamists fi(ht a(ainst a R!ssian-backed alliance between Shiite /ran, Shiite

(ro!s in /ra7 and the #lawite-Shiite #ssad re(ime in Damasc!s"

#nd in the midst of this calamito!s chaos, the /slamic State is the catalyst that is

mis!sed by both sides as the moral 3!stification for the imerialistic a((ressi%e wars

of the two hostile blocks"

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Some time a(o, the Syrian ci%il war was still re(arded as a hoef!l oort!nity for a

confidence-b!ildin( cooeration between the S# and R!ssia e%en by S hawks s!ch

as &adeleine #lbri(ht" 8!t meanwhile, it fell to decline to become the second bi(

arena in the new Cold War net to the krainian war )and besides the minor sta(e in

the Femeni roy war*"+he chess (ame of (eoolitics

+he war in Syria and the war in kraine m!st be seen in the same (eoolitical

contet6that of the new Cold War" With a look at the list of R!ssian military bases

abroad this becomes aarent9 the R!ssian 8lack Sea leet lies off the coast in

Se%astool on the dis!ted Crimea enins!la and sec!res the R!ssian access to the

&editerranean Sea" +he only military base in the &editerranean Sea6and the only

one o!tside of former So%iet area at the same time6howe%er, is in the Syrian city of

+art!s"

#s a conse7!ence of the S-backed re(ime chan(e in Hie% and the installation of thero-Western Eoroshenko-Fatseny!k-(o%ernment in early 201=, R!ssia feared that

their lease contract for the Se%astool na%al base r!nnin( !ntil 20=2 wo!ld be

 3eoardied"

S!bse7!ently, a referend!m was held on the Crimea enins!la that is mainly inhabited

by R!ssians and had belon(ed to R!ssia !ntil 15= anyway" Not reco(nied by the

ma3ority of the comm!nity of states, ercent of the Crimean o!lation decided

the affiliation of their enins!la to the R!ssian ederation6the base in Se%astool

remained !nder R!ssian control"

+he R!ssian na%al facility in +art!s, howe%er, wo!ld most robably6analo(o!s to

Se%astool on Crimea6fall o!tside R!ssian control in almost e%ery scenario for the

de%eloment of the war in Syria" )4ne ossible scenario is the Western-!shed

o%erthrow of R!ssia$s ally #ssad, another one is the horror scenario of the /slamic

State sla!(hterin( its way thro!(h to the &editerranean Sea"*

/n connection to R!ssia$s !rs!it to ro ! its ally #ssad, the rotection of the

&editerranean base in +art!s sho!ld be laced in the center of the ca!se analysis of

R!ssia$s military inter%ention in Syria"

&r" E!tin, of co!rse, knows 3!st as Western heads of state how to lay the chess(ame of (eoolitics" ntil ebr!ary 201= )Se%astool* and 4ctober 2015 )+art!s*,

howe%er, he had no reason to enter this (ame acti%ely"

ront line Syria6a t!rnin( ointA

/ do not share irrational fears of R!ssia di%idin( and r!nnin( down '!roe in the near

f!t!re" J!st as little / see R!ssia becomin( obsessed by a N#+4-like chaos of

imerialistic wars of a((ression" / do not see it9 the eansionist R!ssia that so many

Western oliticians and commentators delirio!sly want to see"

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/ rather see Iladimir E!tin bein( socialied and indoctrinated in the a(e of the old

Cold War, only sli(htly more rational, sli(htly more farsi(hted than his Western

co!nterarts" Ne%ertheless, he adheres to the same false means to sec!re R!ssia$s

two imortant na%al bases" Bis actions may be !nderstandable with resect to

(eostrate(ic imlementations, b!t anyway, they eacerbate the conflict and, th!s,remain desicable acts from a acifist oint of %iew6for the simle reason of bein(

military means"

Syria co!ld become the t!rnin( oint in the (lobal olitics of war"

rom the S-led West, one %irt!ally does not eect other resonses than military

ones" Eeacef!l, dilomatic aroaches to settle dis!tes seem to ha%e been

abandoned iece by iece from the Western reertoire of conflict olicies" )+he

historic milestone of the n!clear deal with /ran bein( the solitary dilomatic

ecetion that ro%es the omniresent military r!le"*

8y enterin( the war in Syria, R!ssia sets o!t on the same lethal ath the West somany times went alon( in the last 1= years6and that is indis!tably doomed to

fail!re"

#t the moment we are becomin( witnesses of e%ents of historic dimensions" +he

:War on +error;, anno!nced in 2001 by the S#, obtains an additional hi(hly

elosi%e comonent" /t is !(raded with a heatin( ! Cold War reloaded that is

concet!ally intertwined with a di%ision of factions alon( &!slim confessions" +he

conse7!ences of these de%eloments can hardly be foreseen"

R!ssia bein( forced into the corner in a con%enience marria(e with owerf!l allies

s!ch as China and /ran on the one side, and a S-led N#+4 hi(hly enmeshed in

a((ressi%e wars that cannot be won, in collaboration with reactionary oil

dictatorshis on the other side6this oses a dan(ero!s, maybe eistentially

dan(ero!s constellation"

+he needs of the moment call for a ret!rn to comrehensi%e dilomacy"

+his iece is a translated %ersion of an article that aeared on No%ember 10, 2015

on the a!thor$s blo( 3!sticenow"de "