3 boas novidades relacionadas a

CASA NOVA

www.biotaneotropica.org.br

Trabalhos Código Florestal

LANÇAMENTO

Comemoração 10

ANOS

Listas oficiais de espécies

da biota paulista

VERTEBRADOS

21 Groups of Invertebrate

PLANTSAngiospermae

7,200 spp

Gymnospermae

ALGAS – freshwater & marine

LICHENE

BRIOPHYTE

PTERIDOPHYTE

PLANTSAngiospermae

7,200 spp

Gymnospermae

ALGAS – freshwater & marine

LICHENE

BRIOPHYTE

PTERIDOPHYTE

Atlantic Forest: the most ancient

Brazilian forest, and a biodiversity

hotspot, is highly threatened by climate

change.

Alexandre F. COLOMBO1 & Carlos A. JOLY1

1 – State University of Campinas/UNICAMP - Brazil

http://www.ib.unicamp.br/projbiota/gradiente_funcional/index.html

Original area

1.306.421 km2

15% Brazilian territory

Araucaria Forest

168,096 km2

Araucaria Forest

168,096 km2

Ombrophilous Dense Forest

218,790 km2

Araucaria Forest

168,096 km2

Ombrophilous Dense Forest

218,790 km2

Semi-deciduous Forest

486,500 km2

125 million inhabitants

Extremely fragmented in the NE

Larger fragments, mainly along

the Serra do Mar corridor

RIBEIRO et al 2009 – estimates of existing Atlantic Forest

cover are higher than previous ones (7–8%), ranging from

11.4% to 16%. The differences among estimates are

mainly related to our inclusion of intermediate secondary

forests and small fragments (<100 ha), which correspond

to approximately 32–40% of what remains. More than 80%

of the fragments are <50 ha, almost half the remaining

forest is <100 m from its edges, the average distance

between fragments is large (≈1.5 km) and nature reserves

protect only 9% of the remaining forest and 1% of the

original forest.

São Luis do Paraitinga

Fazenda Capricórnio

Casa da Farinha

Restinga Forest

Base Itamambuca

Montane Ombrophylous Dense Forest

Montane Ombrophylous Dense Forest

Thank you !

38 native arboreal

species – at least 50

georeferenced points

of occurrence

Selected from 107

inventories

18 Early secondary

20 Late secondary

Thank you !2,837 points of occurrence

Thank you !

Genetic Algorithm for

Ruleset Prediction

GARP

Maximum Entropy

modeling of species

geographic

distribution

MaxEnt

CE

NÁ

RIO

SC

LIM

ÁT

ICO

SPA

RA

OB

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SIL

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lim

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an

ge

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20

50

Op

tim

isti

c <

2oC

P

essim

isti

c ≥

2 o

C

Thank you !Hadley Center scenarios of climate change for 2050

Optimistic < 2oC Pessimistic ≥ 2 oC

Geographic distribution of

Calyptranthes grandifolia O. Berg.

(Myrtaceae) 1 – present registered

occurrence; 2 projection of

occurrence area in 2050 with the

optimistic scenario; 3 projection of

occurrence area in 2050 with the

pessimistic scenario of global

warming.

1 2

3

- 5%

- 30%

Geographic distribution of

Chrysophyllum flexuosum Mart.

(Sapotaceae) 1 – present registered

occurrence; 2 projection of

occurrence area in 2050 with the

optimistic scenario; 3 projection of

occurrence area in 2050 with the

pessimistic scenario of global

warming.

1

+ 10%

2

3

- 30%

Geographic distribution of Euterpe edulis Mart.

(Arecaceae) – Palm hart. 1 – present registered

occurrence; 2 projection of occurrence area in 2050

with the optimistic scenario; 3 projection of

occurrence area in 2050 with the pessimistic

scenario of global warming.

Areas of medium probability of occurrence

Areas of low probability of occurrence

Areas were the species does not occur

Areas of registered occurrence or high probability of occurrence

1

2

3

Present geographic distribution of Mata Atlântica sensu lato.

2

Geographic distribution of Mata Atlântica sensu lato in 2050

with the optimistic scenario.

- 24,6%

- 54,7%

Geographic distribution of Mata Atlântica sensu lato in 2050

with the pessimistic scenario.

Euterpe edulis Mart.Present

2070 optimist 2070 pessimist

INPE – MIROC scenarios of climate change for 2070 & 2100

Optimistic ≤ 2oC Pessimistic > 2 oC

Present

2100 optimist 2100 pessimist

INPE – MIROC scenarios of climate change for 2070 & 2100

Optimistic ≤ 2oC Pessimistic > 2 oC

There are no differences between Early and Late Secondary

species

Functional Group % Km2 Significance

Optimistic scenario

Early Secondary 24,32 1.969.730,56 <0

Late Secondary 24,91 2.072.841,25 <0

Pessimistic scenario

Early Secondary 55,34 2.936.873,75 <0

Late Secondary 53,93 2.709.618,06 <0

Precipitation

Temperature

Conservation Priority Areas

Climate change projection

Dankeschön

Thank you !

Obrigado

Thank you !