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3-1
Quantitative Analysis Quantitative Analysis for Managementfor Management
Chapter 3Chapter 3Fundamentals of Fundamentals of
Decision Theory ModelsDecision Theory Models
3-2
Chapter OutlineChapter Outline3.1 Introduction
3.2 The Six Steps in Decision Theory
3.3 Types of Decision-Making Environments
3.4 Decision Making Under Risk
3.5 Decision Making Under Uncertainty
3.6 Marginal Analysis with a Large Number of Alternatives and States of Nature
3-3
Learning ObjectivesLearning ObjectivesStudents will be able to:
List the steps of the decision-making processDescribe the types of decision-making
environmentsUse probability values to make decisions under
riskMake decisions under uncertainty where there is
risk but probability values are not knownUse computers to solve basic decision-making
problems
3-4
IntroductionIntroduction Decision theory is an analytical and
systematic way to tackle problems
A good decision is based on logic.
3-5
The Six Steps in Decision The Six Steps in Decision TheoryTheory
Clearly define the problem at hand List the possible alternatives Identify the possible outcomes List the payoff or profit of each combination
of alternatives and outcomes Select one of the mathematical decision
theory models Apply the model and make your decision
3-6
Decision Table Decision Table for Thompson Lumberfor Thompson Lumber
State of NatureAlternative
200,000 -180,000
100,000 -20,000
0 0
Construct alarge plantConstruct a small plant
Do nothing
Favorable Market ($)
Unfavorable Market ($)
3-7
Types of Decision-Making Types of Decision-Making EnvironmentsEnvironments
Type 1: Decision-making under certaintydecision-maker knows with certaintyknows with certainty the
consequences of every alternative or decision choice
Type 2: Decision-making under riskThe decision-maker knowsknows the probabilities of
the various outcomes Decision-making under uncertainty
The decision-maker does not knowdoes not know the probabilities of the various outcomes
3-8
Decision-Making Under RiskDecision-Making Under Risk
n nature, of states ofnumber the to 1 j where
))P(S* (Payoff i) ativeEMV(Alternn
1jjSj
Expected Monetary Value:Expected Monetary Value:
3-9
Decision Table Decision Table for Thompson Lumberfor Thompson Lumber
State of NatureAlternative
Probabilities
200,000 -180,000
100,000 -20,000
0 0
Construct alarge plantConstruct a small plant
Do nothing
Favorable Market ($)
Unfavorable Market ($)
0.50 0.50
EMV
10,000
40,000
0
3-10
Expected Value of Perfect Expected Value of Perfect Information (Information (EVPI))
EVPIEVPI places an upper bound on what one would pay for additional information
EVPIEVPI is the expected value with perfect information minus the maximum EMV
3-11
Expected Value With Perfect Expected Value With Perfect Information (Information (EV|PI))
n nature, of states ofnumber the to 1 j
)P(S*j) nature of statefor outcomebest j
where
(PI|EVn
j
3-12
Expected Value of Perfect Expected Value of Perfect InformationInformation
EVPIEVPI = EV|PIEV|PI - maximum EMVEMV
3-13
Expected Value of Perfect Expected Value of Perfect InformationInformation
State of NatureAlternative
Probabilities
200,000
0
Construct alarge plantConstruct a small plant
Do nothing
Favorable Market ($)
Unfavorable Market ($)
0.50 0.50
EMV
40,000
3-14
Expected Value of Perfect Expected Value of Perfect InformationInformation
EVPIEVPI = expected value with perfect
information - max(EMVEMV)
= $200,000*0.50 + 0*0.50 - $40,000
= $60,000
3-15
Expected Opportunity LossExpected Opportunity Loss EOLEOL is the cost of not picking the best
solution EOLEOL = Expected Regret
We want to maximize EMV or
minimize EOL
3-16
Computing EOL - The Computing EOL - The Opportunity Loss TableOpportunity Loss Table
State of Nature
Alternative Favorable Market($)
UnfavorableMarket ($)
Large Plant 200,000 - 200,000 0 - (-180,000)
Small Plant 200,000 - 100,000 0 -(-20,000)
Do Nothing 200,000 - 0 0-0
Probabilities 0.50 0.50
3-17
The Opportunity Loss Table The Opportunity Loss Table continuedcontinued
State of Nature
Alternative Favorable Market($)
UnfavorableMarket ($)
Large Plant 0 180,000
Small Plant 100,000 20,000
Do Nothing 200,000 0
Probabilities 0.50 0.50
3-18
The Opportunity Loss Table The Opportunity Loss Table continuedcontinued
Alternative EOL
Large Plant (0.50)*$0 +(0.50)*($180,000)
$90,000
Small Plant (0.50)*($100,000)+ (0.50)(*$20,000)
$60,000
Do Nothing (0.50)*($200,000)+ (0.50)*($0)
$100,000
3-19
Sensitivity AnalysisSensitivity Analysis
EMV(Large Plant) = $200,000PP - (1-P1-P)$180,000
EMV(Small Plant) = $100,000PP - $20,000(1-P1-P)
EMV(Do Nothing) = $0PP + 0(1-P1-P)
3-20
Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Analysis - continuedcontinued
-200000
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Values of P
EMV
Val
ues
Point 1 Point 2
EMV (Small Plant)
EMV(Large Plant)
3-21
Decision MakingDecision Making Under Uncertainty Under Uncertainty
Maximax
Maximin
Equally likely (Laplace)
Criterion of Realism
Minimax
3-22
Decision MakingDecision Making Under Uncertainty Under Uncertainty
Maximax - Choose the alternative with the maximum output
State of NatureAlternative
Probabilities
200,000 -180,000
100,000 -20,000
0 0
Construct alarge plantConstruct a small plant
Do nothing
Favorable Market ($)
Unfavorable Market ($)
3-23
Decision MakingDecision Making Under Uncertainty Under Uncertainty
Maximin - Choose the alternative with the maximum minimum output
State of NatureAlternative
Probabilities
200,000 -180,000
100,000 -20,000
0 0
Construct alarge plantConstruct a small plant
Do nothing
Favorable Market ($)
Unfavorable Market ($)
3-24
Decision MakingDecision Making Under Uncertainty Under Uncertainty
Equally likely (Laplace) - Assume all states of nature to be equally likely, choose maximum EMV
State of NatureAlternative
Probabilities
200,000 -180,000
100,000 -20,000
0 0
Construct alarge plantConstruct a small plant
Do nothing
Favorable Market ($)
Unfavorable Market ($)
0.50 0.50
EMV
10,000
40,000
0
3-25
Decision MakingDecision Making Under Uncertainty Under Uncertainty
Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz):CR = *(row max) + (1-)*(row min)
State of NatureAlternative
Probabilities
200,000 -180,000
100,000 -20,000
0 0
Construct alarge plantConstruct a small plant
Do nothing
Favorable Market ($)
Unfavorable Market ($)
0.50 0.50
CR
124,000
76,000
0
3-26
Decision MakingDecision Making Under Uncertainty Under Uncertainty
Minimax - choose the alternative with the minimum maximum Opportunity Loss
State of NatureAlternative
Probabilities
0 180,000
100,000 20,000
200,000 0
Construct alarge plantConstruct a small plantDo nothing
Favorable Market ($)
Unfavorable Market ($)
0.50 0.50
Max in row
180,000
100,000
200,000
3-27
Marginal AnalysisMarginal Analysis P P = probability that demand is greater than
or equal to a given supply 1-P1-P = probability that demand will be less
than supply MPMP = marginal profit MLML = marginal loss Optimal decision rule is: P*MP P*MP (1-P)*ML (1-P)*ML or
MLMPML
P
3-28
Marginal Analysis -Marginal Analysis -Discrete DistributionsDiscrete Distributions
Steps using Discrete Distributions:Determine the value for PP
Construct a probability table and add a
cumulative probability column
Keep ordering inventory as long as the
probability of selling at least one additional unit
is greater than PP
3-29
Café du Donut ExampleCafé du Donut Example
Daily Sales(Cartons)
Probability of Salesat this Level
Probability that SalesWill Be at this Level
or Greater4 0.05 1.00
5 0.15 0.95
6 0.15 0. 80
7 0.20 0.65
8 0.25 0.45
9 0.10 0.20
10 0.10 0.10
1.00
3-30
Café du Donut Example Café du Donut Example continuedcontinued
Marginal profit = selling price - cost
= $6 - $4 = $2 Marginal loss = cost Therefore:
.
MPMLML
P
3-31
Café du Donut Example Café du Donut Example continuedcontinued
DailySales
(Cartons)
Probability ofSales at this Level
Probability thatSales Will Be at this
Level or Greater4 0.05 1.00 0.665 0.15 0.95 0.666 0.15 0. 80 0.667 0.20 0.65
8 0.25 0.45
9 0.10 0.20
10 0.10 0.10
1.00
3-32
Marginal AnalysisMarginal AnalysisNormal DistributionNormal Distribution
= average or mean sales
= standard deviation of sales
MPMP = marginal profit
MLML = Marginal loss
3-33
Marginal Analysis -Marginal Analysis -Discrete DistributionsDiscrete Distributions
Steps using Normal Distributions:Determine the value for P.
Locate P on the normal distribution. For a given area under the curve, we find Z from the standard Normal table.
Using we can now solve for X*
MPMLML
P
*XZ
3-34
Joe’s Newsstand Example AJoe’s Newsstand Example A MLML = 4
MPMP = 6
= Average demand = 50 papers per day
= Standard deviation of demand = 10
3-35
Joe’s Newsstand Example A Joe’s Newsstand Example A continuedcontinued
Step 1:
Step 2: Look on the Normal table for
PP = 0.6 (i.e., 1 - .04) ZZ = 0.25,
and
or:
.
MPMLML
P
*X.
newspapersor ..*X *
3-36
Joe’s Newsstand Example A Joe’s Newsstand Example A continuedcontinued
3-37
Joe’s Newsstand Example BJoe’s Newsstand Example B MLML = 8
MPMP = 2
= Average demand = 100 papers per day
= Standard deviation of demand = 10
3-38
Joe’s Newsstand Example B Joe’s Newsstand Example B continuedcontinued
Step 1:
Step 2:
ZZ = -0.84 for an area of 0.80
and
or:
.
MPMLML
P
*X.
newspapersor ..X *
3-39
Joe’s Newsstand Example B Joe’s Newsstand Example B continuedcontinued