19
Herkese Açık / Public 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation

2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    3

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

1Herkese Açık / Public

2Q20 ResultsInvestor Presentation

Page 2: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

2Herkese Açık / Public

Ethylene – Naphtha spread averaged US$ 255/ton in 2Q20

• Ethylene-naphtha spread decreased by 31% from US$ 369/ton in 1Q20 to US$ 255/ton in 2Q20.

• Spread was quite weak in the second quarter, especially in May, as a result of petrochemicals down cycle conditions

compounded by COVID-19 driving overall lower volumes and margins.

• Naphtha prices were on the uptrend in May, on the back of oil production cuts, with demand picking up as lockdowns

started to ease and business activities in general started to resume.

• Starting from mid-May, ethylene supply has become less long since mid-May on the effect of unplanned issues and delays

in restarts from maintenance and ethylene price has shown a partial recovery leading a slight increase in spread again.

Monthly Naphtha - Ethylene Spread (CIF MED Spot Prices)

425 436 479 529611 605

441 502 492 447301 247

329 352435

300194 287 341

449483 515

552 535473 504

442 472 484 513 526 514448

216130

209329

371

875918

9941,080

1,1461,078

944 944 964 931

814773

844801

651

430 403

616712

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20

US

D/t

on

ne

Spread Naphtha Ethylene

Page 3: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

3Herkese Açık / Public

PLATTs Index averaged US$ 565 per ton in 2Q20

• PLATTS Global Petrochemicals Index starts to recover on a monthly basis after seeing the lowest level in April.

• Index averaged at USD565/ton in 2Q20, suggesting 22% decrease Q-Q and 36% decrease Y-Y.

• Despite almost all product prices were lower compared to the first quarter, some product group spreads were quite

strong and higher due to the fact that the decrease in naphtha prices was much more higher than the decrease in the

some product prices, like polymers.

• On the other hand, some of petrochemical products such as, benzene, C4 prices and product spreads were enormously

weak which are severely impacted by the pandemic as its demand is mainly driven by the automotive sector.

Monthly Average Platts Index

868

912 898 898 890

844 837 845 848

814

778 759

794

748

639

501

550

635

681 691

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20

Page 4: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

4Herkese Açık / Public

Product group spreads(Over naphtha CIF MED), USD/MT

Source: Platts, Company

0

200

400

600

Ja

n-1

9

Feb

-19

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-19

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

De

c-19

Ja

n-2

0

Feb

-20

Ma

r-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Ma

y-2

0

Ju

n-2

0

Ju

l-2

0

Au

g-2

0

Aromatics group spread

OrthoXylene

Paraxylene

Benzene

Weighted

150

350

550

750

Ja

n-1

9

Feb

-19

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-19

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

De

c-19

Ja

n-2

0

Feb

-20

Ma

r-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Ma

y-2

0

Ju

n-2

0

Ju

l-2

0

Au

g-2

0

Polymers group spread

Weighted

PP

LDPE

PVC

HDPE

-100

200

500

800

1100

1400

Ja

n-1

9

Feb

-19

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-19

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

De

c-19

Ja

n-2

0

Feb

-20

Ma

r-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Ma

y-2

0

Ju

n-2

0

Ju

l-2

0

Au

g-2

0Fibres group spread

WeightedACN

PTA

MEG

DEG

-100

100

300

500

700

900

Ja

n-1

9

Feb

-19

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-19

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

De

c-19

Ja

n-2

0

Feb

-20

Ma

r-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Ma

y-2

0

Ju

n-2

0

Ju

l-2

0

Au

g-2

0

Other group spread

PGP

PA

Crude C4

Weighted

PY-GAS

Page 5: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

5Herkese Açık / Public

Product groups and overall weighted spread (over naphtha CIF MED), USD/MT

Source: Platts, Company

0

200

400

600

Weighted averages by product groups spreads

Polymers

Fiber

Others

Aromatics

Page 6: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

6Herkese Açık / Public

Feedstock vs. Product Prices

• 279Kton feedstock has been supplied from STAR

Refinery in Q220.

• Thermoplastics demand still much healthier for

packaging, food, health and medical sectors.

• Thermoplastics margin averaged at 681 in the second

quarter ,which is 12% higher on quarterly basis and 2%

higher on yearly basis ,thanks to the low feedstock

prices.

• In the second quarter of 2020, 548Kton total sales was

recorded.

• As historical low levels of oil prices were seen at the

beginning of the second quarter, Petkim management

successfully managed the price volatility and benefited

from low feedstock prices.

667 673 669 600 598 570 581 511 462 507 558 765 764

668 612

1,2011,210

1,1641,092 1,057 1,034 1,053 1,013 964 1,015

1,0401,043

927

849 903

535537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482

279163 182 291

Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha Spread

Spread Thermoplastics Naphtha

US

D/t

on

225 243

161

105 121 147 138

90 68

54 53

111

90 133 105

(30)

20

70

120

170

220

270

320

200

300

400

50 0

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,10 0

Petkim Unit Margins

Margin (Right Axis) Unit Price Unit Cost

Page 7: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

7Herkese Açık / Public

Costs and Operational Efficiency in 2Q20

67% 13%

7%

13%

Raw material

Energy

Labor

Other

Plant Cost Base Breakdown 2Q20*

*Cumulative figures are provided

86%

102% 100%

38%

99%105% 106% 105%

98%92%

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20

Ethylene Facility Capacity Utilization Rate

788

894 891 870 802

729

2,724 2,468 2,541 2,582

2,861 2,950

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

5 0 0

6 0 0

7 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

1 , 0 0 0

Total Production & Energy Consumption

Total Production (ton k) Unit Energy consumption (103*kcal/ton)

176 176 178 171 166

117 98 137 110 90

90 98 59 74 67

70 71 73 6751

459 461 461 428

378

(50)

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

2 Q 1 9 3 Q 1 9 4 Q 1 9 1 Q 2 0 2 Q 2 0

Thermoplastics Other Aromatics Fiber Ethylene

Sellable Production (ton K)

Page 8: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

8Herkese Açık / Public

147

544

143202

13781 57 58

7 043 24

241

557

Revenue (TL mn)

5

122

2 4 931

5

58

7 043

77

321

Export Revenue (TL mn)

2Q20 Volume: 548k ton

In 2Q20 Petkim achieved TL 2,242mn sales via 548k ton volume

2Q20 Revenue: TL2,242mn

2Q20 Export Revenue: TL685mn

27

87

2333

23 28 2035

5

2914 13

58

152

Sales Volume (ton k)

Page 9: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

9Herkese Açık / Public

Turkey’s Import

Petkim/Domestic Sale

Domestic Consumption

Domestic Market Share %Source: TURKSTAT, Company

Ton k

605 546

111 137

15% 20%

2018 2019

v

PVC

246 238

252 279

51% 54%

2018 2019

LDPE

566 558

78 86

12% 13%

2018 2019

HDPE

1,646 1,794

117 141

7% 7%

2015 2016

PP

Turkey thermoplastics consumption decreased by 2% in 2Q20 compared to 1Q20.

156 140 33 26

18% 15%

0

200

400

600

800

2020Q1 2020Q2

169 182 23 27

12% 13%

0

200

400

600

2020Q1 2020Q2

72 68

75 71

51% 51%

0

200

400

600

2020Q1 2020Q2

489 489

36 35

7% 7%

(100)

100

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

2020Q1 2020Q2

Page 10: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

10Herkese Açık / Public

Turkey’s Import

Petkim/Domestic Sale

Domestic Consumption

Domestic Market Share %

Fiber consumption in Turkey increased by 2% in 2Q20 compared to 1Q20.

Source: TURKSTAT, Company

Ton k

187

150 79 86

30% 36%

2018 2019

v

ACN

v270

302

58 78

18% 20%

2018 2019

MEG

v479 552

84 141

15% 20%

2018 2019

PTA

33 30 19 21

36% 41%

0

200

2020Q1 2020Q2

91 83 15 18

15% 19%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

2020Q1 2020Q2

172 189 29 25

15% 12%

0

200

400

600

800

2020Q1 2020Q2

Page 11: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

11Herkese Açık / Public

Turkey’s Import

Petkim/Domestic Sale

Domestic Consumption

Domestic Market Share %

Turkish Market – Others

Source: TURKSTAT, Company

Ton k

117 130

51 60

30% 32%

2018 2019

v

PX

14

28

35 37

71% 57%

2018 2019

v

PA

31 41 13 10

29% 25%

(10)

20

50

80

110

140

170

200

2020Q1 2020Q2

6 4

10

8

63% 65%

2020Q1 2020Q2

Page 12: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

12Herkese Açık / Public

PETKIM 2Q20 Income Statement

TL mn 6M'19 6M'20

Sales 5,941 5,008

Cost of sales (5,062) (4,411)

Gross Profit 879 597

Gross profit % 14.8% 11.9%

Marketing and sales expenses (46) (56)

General admin. Expenses (151) (171)

R&D Expenses (12) (14)

Operating profit 670 356

Other income / (expenses) 50 114

Financial income 1,174 1,298

Financial expense (1,385) (1,564)

Profit before tax 508 203

Income tax (44) (23)

Deferred tax (25) (45)

Net Profit / (loss) 439 135

Net profit % 7.4% 2.7%

Other 48 70

Depreciation 173 190

EBITDA 890 617

EBITDA % 15.0% 12.3%

Page 13: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

13Herkese Açık / Public

PETKIM 2Q20 Balance Sheet

TL mn 12M19 6M20

Cash and cash equivalents 4,037 4,560

Trade receivables 1,552 1,334

Inventory 929 746

Other receviables 13 8

Other current assets 3,015 3,510

Current assets 9,547 10,159

Non current assets 5,255 5,581

Total Assets 14,801 15,739

Short term borrowings 4,037 3,741

Trade payables 957 636

Other payables 134 230

Current liabilities 5,129 4,607

Long term borrowings 4,487 5,812

Other non-current liabilities 337 416

Shareholders’ equity 4,849 4,904

Total liabilities 14,801 15,739

Net debt position -4,297 -4,766

Working Capital 27 -153

Days sales outstanding 49 45

Days payable outstanding 89 102

Days sales of inventory 34 29

Page 14: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

14Herkese Açık / Public

4,316 4,739 5,164 4,766

2.83x 2.93x

3.55x 3.62x

0.00x

0.50x

1.00x

1.50x

2.00x

2.50x

3.00x

3.50x

4.00x

(500)

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

6,500

2018 2019 Q120 Q220

Net Debt Position (mn TL)

Net debt Position Net debt/EBITDA

118 100

21 19

40

28

2 1

2018 2019 Q120 Q220

CAPEX (mn US$)

Maintanance CAPEX Investment CAPEX

1,523 1,589

205 412

836 761

-10145

16%

14%

7%

18%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

(500)

-

50 0

1,000

1,500

2,000

2018 2019 Q120 Q220

EBITDA Net Income EBITDA Margin

EBITDA, Net Income and EBITDA Margin (mn TL)

5,7596,889

1,710 1,528

3,797

4,666

1,044685

2018 2019 Q120 Q220

Revenue (mn TL)

Domestic Sales Export

Financial Performance

Page 15: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

15Herkese Açık / Public

Balance Sheet Analysis

Maturity Profile* (mn US$)

As the date of 30.06.2020;

• 85% of deposits are in US$, 10% of deposits are in TRY and the remainder 5% is in EUR.

• Petkim reported total debt of $1.349 billion of which $485 million was related short-term working facilities and letter of credits.

• Petkim utilizes short term credits for its working capital financing mostly from Eximbank with favorable terms.

• Long term loans include the U.S.$212 million project finance credit agreement. On 25 May 2015, Petlim signed a project finance credit agreement with Akbank, maturity of 13 years with 3 years grace period.

• In January 2018, Petkim successfully priced its inaugural $500mm 5.875% due 2023 bond offering.

US$667mn

*Consists of principal amounts, interest accruals of borrowings are excluded.

TRY10% EUR

5%

USD85%

Deposits - by currencyLoan Type Loan Type Currency

Outstanding

principial

(Original

currency)

Outstanding

principial

(USD)

Inv estment Credit EUR 33 37

Inv estment Credit USD 7 1 7 1

Project Finance Loan USD 1 89 1 89

Eurobond USD 500 500

Inv estment Credit TRY 7 0 1 0

Naphtha WC financing Murabaha USD 57 57

Total long-term loan USD 864

WC Financing TRY 1 3 2

WC Financing USD 230 230

WC Financing EUR 20 22

Naphtha WC financing Letter of Credits USD 94 94

Naphtha WC financing Murabaha USD 1 37 1 37

Total short-term loan USD 485

Total USD 1,349

Long-term loan

Short-term loan

US$500mn Eurobond is

expected to refin

389

116 112

559

33

109

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 andbeyond

Long term Eurobond Short term

Page 16: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

16Herkese Açık / Public

Diversified business profile through ancillary infrastructure and energy investments

Description Benefits to Petkim

STAR

Refinery

• Turkey’s first privately constructed Refinery

• Target processing capacity of 10m tons p.a.

• Owned 60% by SOCAR Turkey, and 40% by Azerbaijan Ministry of Economy and Industry

• Total investment amounts to $6.3bn.

• Lower naphtha procurement costs

• Replacement of some of the heavy naphtha feedstock with Reformate / Mixed-xylene.

• Increased stability and quality of feedstock, supply security, and reduced inventory costs

• Upside from sharing services such as maintenance, safety, security, waste disposal and tug boat services

• STAR expected to become a stable dividend payer over the medium-term

Petlim

• Largest container sea port in Western Turkey with a 1.5m TEU container handling capacity

• Total construction costs amount to c. $400m

• Petlim has signed a 28-year (+4) concession agreement with Port Operator

• Owned 70% by Petkim and 30% by Goldman Sachs

• Stable stream of income that is not correlated to Petkim’s core business

• Savings on shipments for expansion projects

Windfarm

• Wind farm located in the Aliaga Peninsula licensed to generate 38 MW of electricity

Petkim has applied for a new license allowing generation at full capacity of 51 MW

• The construction of 17 new turbines, each able to generate 3 MW of electricity, was completed in Sep-2017

• Total investment in the windfarm amounts to €55m

• Contributes to revenue diversification

Plan is to sell the electricity generated to Turkey’s national grid, with a guaranteed tariff

• The windfarm provides a 22% increase in Petkim’s electricity generating capacity

• Expected to reduce carbon emissions by 120kt per year

Page 17: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

17Herkese Açık / Public

Appendix 1. Petrochemical Complex Flow Chart

Naphtha Propylene

Aromatics

Ethylene

LDPE(350,000 ton/year)

HDPE(96,000 ton/year

MEG(89,000 ton/year

C4(140,000 ton/year)

PVC(150,000 ton/year)

PP(144,000 ton/year)

ACN(90,000 ton/year)

PA(49,000 ton/year)

Benzene(144,000 ton/year)

C5 Mixtures(80,000 ton/year)

P-X(136,000 ton/year)

PTA(105,000 ton/year)

Bag, greenhouse covers, film, cable, toys, pipes, bottles, hose, packaging

Construction and water pipes, packaging film, toys, bottles, soft drink crates, barrels

Polyster fiber, polyester film, antifreeze

Pipe, window shades, cable, bottles, building materials, packaging film, floor tiles, serum bags

Knitting yarn, ropes, tablecloths, napkins, doormats, hoses, radiator pipes, fishing nets, brushes

Textile fibers, artificial wool, ABS resins (acrylonitrile butadiene)

Detergent, solvents, explosives, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, parts of white goods

Polyester industry

Polyester fiber, polyester resin, films, plasticizers, synthetic chemicals

Ethylene Plant

Aromatics Plant

Petkim has fully integrated operations

Chlor-alkali(100,000 ton/year)

Page 18: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

18Herkese Açık / Public

Closing Price as of 30 June 2020 (TRY/Share) 4,27TL

Market Cap (TRY mn) TL 9,018

Free Float (%) 49.0%

PETKIM STOCK PERFORMANCE

Appendix 2. PETKIM Stock Performance

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

330

350

12/16 06/17 12/17 06/18 12/18 06/19 12/19 06/20

Volume Petkim BİST 100

Th Unit

Page 19: 2Q20 Results Investor Presentation Earnings 2Q20.pdf · 964 1,015 1,040 1,043 927 849 903 535 537 495 492 459 464 472 502 502 507 482 279 163 182 291 Petkim - Thermoplastics & Naphtha

19Herkese Açık / Public

This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer or invitation to subscribe for,underwrite or otherwise acquire, any securities of Petkim Petrokimya Holding A.Ş. (the “Company”) or any member of its group norshould it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract to purchase or subscribe for any securitiesof the Company or any member of its group nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with anycontract, investment decision or commitment whatsoever. This presentation has been made to you solely for your information andbackground and is subject to amendment. This presentation (or any part of it) may not be reproduced or redistributed, passed on, orthe contents otherwise divulged, directly or indirectly, to any other person (excluding the relevant person’s professional advisers) orpublished in whole or in part for any purpose without the prior written consent of the Company.

Disclaimer