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7/28/2019 293225main 62642main 1 Pmchallenge Leach
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Rev. 4: 2/27/041
Larry Leach, PMP208-345-1136
http://www.advanced-projects.com/http://www.advanced-projects.com/7/28/2019 293225main 62642main 1 Pmchallenge Leach
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Objectives
Identifywhy the critical chain, not the criticalpath, is often the constraint of a project
Exploit the constraint (critical chain) of a project
Subordinateeverything else to the project goal
Define buffers used in Critical Chain ProjectManagement
Exploit the multi-project constraint
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Successful Users & Clients Include
Harris Semiconductor Lucent Technologies
Honeywell DAS Israeli Aircraft Company
UA Air Force US Navy
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PHNSY-FMB Improvements
25%83110Customer Backlog 57%12.5%28.75%Overtime 22%220(99%)180(93%)
J ob CompletionRate
(same time period)
41%2,2023,741Man-Days
23%$4,700$6,113Average Cost perJ ob
(incl. overtime)
133%93%
(25 of 27)
40%
(8 of 20)
ON-TIME
(Scheduled
Availabilities)
METRIC BEFORE CCPM AFTER CCPM IMPROVEMENT
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2. Critical Chain1. Remove
resource conflicts
3. Mean Task Duration
A B C
E CB
A C D
4. Project Buffer
5. Feeding Buffer
Resource Leveled Critical (?) Path
6. Late start
Time
9. Relay racer task performance
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Goldratts Theory of Constraints
Products(or Projects)
to
Customers
Raw Materialfrom
SuppliersProductionFunctions
System Throughput Limitedby a Constraint
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The Theory of Constraints Focusing Steps
IDENTIFY constraint
EXPLOIT constraint
SUBORDINATE everything else to
the constraint Only then, ELEVATE the
constraint Do not let INERTIA prevent future
improvement
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Identify: Is the critical path the constraint?
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Resource Leveled CP
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Critical Chain Identified: The longest path through theprojectafter resource leveling.
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Example Group Result
His tog ram
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 MoreB in
Frequenc
y
.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%FrequencyC umulative %
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All Project Activity Times Are
Uncertain Estimates
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Activity Time or Cost
P
MinimumTime/Cost
Most Likely
Time/Cost
Long tailmeans no
definite upperlimit
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Focus On Milestones And Variances Drives
Low-risk (90%+) Activity Duration Estimates
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
ScheduledDuration
CumulativeCompletion
Probability
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Critical Path Schedule HidesContingency In Each Activity
Activity 1 Activity 2 Activity 3 Activity 4 Activity 5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
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Date-driven Human BehaviorUses Scheduled Activity Time
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Act ivi ty Time or Cost
P
1 = Plan Time or Cost
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Exploit the Project Constraint
Uncertainty:
Variation in estimate
Variation in task performance
Dependent events: resources
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EXPLOIT variation by taking contingency out ofeach task, and moving it to the end of the chain.
Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4
Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Combining variancesCentral limit theorem
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Critical chain differs from critical
path by:Resolving resource contentionsfirst (Identify)
Using 50 % probable activity times(Exploit)
A B C
C D
(Smaller) aggregatedBuffer at end of chain
(Exploit)
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Buffer Provides AnticipatoryMeasure to Exploit Constraint
1 2 3 4 5 BUFFER
WatchWatch PlanPlan ActAct
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Buffer Tracking Predicts Action Need
Time0
1/3
2/3
1
x x
x
xx
xx
x
xx
Plan
Act
Project Buffer
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Some Applications Deploy Dynamic Buffer Threshold
Project Buffer
%Buffer
x x
x
xx
xx
x
xx
Plan
Act
RED
YELLOW
GREEN
GREEN
% Chain
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Subordinate Merging Paths WithFeeding Buffers
FB
FB
Project Buffer
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Example project as a CCPM schedule.
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Subordinate to the Critical Chain Eliminate start and stop dates for each
activity (Only start dates for chains, and endof Project Buffer!)
Late start feeding chains Intermediate milestone (hard) dates
(But...technical milestones are necessary,and there is a way to meet client orregulator demands: buffer milestone dates.)
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Critical chain task gets priority over noncritical chain task
Priority to task causing greatest projectbuffer penetration
Non-project work lowest priority
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2. Critical Chain1. Remove
resource conflicts
3. Mean Task Duration
A B C
E CB
A C D
4. Project Buffer
5. Feeding Buffer
Resource Leveled Critical (?) Path
6. Late start
Time
9. Relay racer task performance
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Resources must multi-task
Projects are late Quality deteriorates
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Task A
Task B
Task C
SwitchingInefficiency
Task A Task B Task C
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Consider Unloading Ships...
Five ships arrive. Each requires 5 person-days to unload.Each owner wants his ship unloaded ASAP. You have five
people to unload the ships. Simpleassign one to each ship.
Starting each one right away (the sooner you start)each ship is unloaded on the end of the fifth day.
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Put all five resources on ship 1 the first day, ship 2 the
second day, etc. Result:Ship New (days) Old (days) Saved1 1 5 42 2 5 3
3 3 5 24 4 5 15 5 5 0
Nobody loses. Four of five clients done sooner.Cost = $ 0
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IDENTIFY: Multi-project resourceconstraint
EXPLOIT: Prioritize projects (Drum)
SUBORDINATE: Stagger project start
ELEVATE
INERTIA
Prioritize & Sequence Projects to Accelerate Completion!
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BUFFER
Individual Project Schedules (Note resource contention)
BUFFER
Synchronized Multiple Projects Accelerate and ReduceResource Contention
BUFFER
Synchronizing (Constraint) Buffer
Constraint Resource
BUFFER
Obj i
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Objectives Identifywhy the critical chain, not the critical
path, is often the constraint of a project
Exploit the constraint (critical chain) of a project Subordinateeverything else to the project goal
Define buffers used in Critical Chain ProjectManagement
Exploit the multi-project constraint
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Implement effective process for:
Management leadership and behavior
Client alignment
Resource behavior Buffer Management
Organization specific obstacles Potential unintended consequences
Path ForwardPath Forward
F F th I f ti
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For Further Information
Leach, Lawrence P.Critical Chain Project Management
Artech House, Boston, 2000
Available from PMI Bookstore,
Amazon.com,and other major onlinebook sellers.
[email protected]. Home: 208-345-1136
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]