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15 3 ..-.. 2548 The Journal of KMITNB., Vol. 15, No. 3, Jul. Sep. 2005
56
Capture-Recapture
Application of Capture Recapture Method for Estimation of Population Size in Epidemiology
1.
Capture-Recapture HIV [1] [2] [3] [4-5] (Incidence) (Prevalence) (Case Ascertainment) capture-recapture
Capture-Recapture 1990 Modesitt [6] CaptureRecapture Oregon 1992 Rubin [7]
2003 Goldman [8] 2. Capture-Recapture
Capture-Recapture Lincoln-Petersen [9-10] M N n 2 (1) (2) (3) (4) 2 Lincoln- Petersen
15 3 ..-.. 2548 The Journal of KMITNB., Vol. 15, No. 3, Jul. Sep. 2005
57
2
NM =
nm
(1)
mM n N = (2)
M = n = 2 m = 2 N =
Lincoln-Petersen 1951 Chapman [11]
11)(m
1)M 1)((n N +++= (3)
Lincoln-Petersen Chapman N = 500 M n [12] 1 3. capture-recapture
1 N =500 M n
M n M/N f1 = n/N f 2 = N 50 100 0.1 0.2 Lincoln-
Petersen Chapman
545.84 500.77
100 50 0.2 0.1 Lincoln-Petersen Chapman
547.91 502.49
75 150 0.15 0.3 Lincoln-Petersen Chapman
513.85 499.56
150 75 0.3 0.15 Lincoln-Petersen Chapman
515.26 500.85
(Surveillance System) Capture-Recapture
15 3 ..-.. 2548 The Journal of KMITNB., Vol. 15, No. 3, Jul. Sep. 2005
58
CaptureRecapture 2 (1) (2) (3) 2 (4) 2
Capture-Recapture
Capture-Recapture (Pilot Study) Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
(1) (2) (Stratification) Capture-Recapture [13] Log-Linear 2 [14] Log-Linear Log-It [15] (3) 2 2 Log-Linear (4)
15 3 ..-.. 2548 The Journal of KMITNB., Vol. 15, No. 3, Jul. Sep. 2005
59
Chapman Lincoln-Petersen
11)(m
1)M 1)((n N +
++= (4)
M = 1 n = 2 m = 1 2 N =
var
( N ) = 2)(m1)(m
m)m)(n1)(M1)(n(M2 ++
++
(5) 95% N ( )Nvar1.96N (6)
Goldman [8] capture-recapture 1995 Antelope Valley 1995
2 2 1 19 1,648 (M = 1,648) 2 662 (n = 662) 2 242 (m = 242) (4) Capture Recapture 4,498 ( N =4,498) 4. CaptureRecapture 2
15 3 ..-.. 2548 The Journal of KMITNB., Vol. 15, No. 3, Jul. Sep. 2005
60
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HIV-infected drug users in Bangkok: a capture-recapture method. American Journal of Public Health. 7 (1994) :10941099.
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