9
2015 ECONOMIC FORECAST & TRENDS February 9, 2015 • An Advertising Supplement to the San Fernando Valley Business Journal PRESENTED BY: By DAN WILSON A S businesses in Southern California approach the New Year, CFOs and treasurers are assessing strategies to navigate a changing—and increasingly compet- itive—marketplace. The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen against other currencies, putting downward pressure on import prices and heightening competition among importers while creating currency risk. Speculation about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates also continues, and will likely result in interest rate volatility in the coming months. How can your business manage these risks and navigate the changing landscape to gain an edge in the New Year? Here are five important strategies to help enhance your competitiveness in 2015: MATCH YOUR INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE WITH YOUR BANK’S FOOTPRINT Businesses in Southern California are increas- ingly pursuing new markets outside the U.S. For companies seeking to go abroad for the first time or looking to expand their existing international presence, ensuring your global footprint matches your commercial bank’s footprint is critical. Your commercial bank should have a presence wherever you operate globally—meaning wher- ever you have employees and facilities—whether it’s in Europe, Africa, Asia Pacific, or the Middle East. If your footprints don’t match, the lack of fit may hinder your growth momentum over- seas. Working closely with a single bank that has a presence everywhere you operate around the world creates consistency, increases transparency, and improves economic efficiency for your busi- ness over the long term. A banking provider with comprehensive global cash management capabilities is also imperative to help strengthen your business’s liquidity management, risk management, and accounting controls, while facilitating your cross-border transactions. Bank of the West’s Global Cash Management team helps meet businesses’ treasury needs across international markets—giving them visibility over their cash, increasing their control, and helping optimize their working capital so they can deploy cash wherever they need to. IMPORTERS: PAY IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES TO GAIN EXTRA BUYING POWER Southern California is home to large ports that play a central role in U.S. economic activity. A strengthening dollar, along with the ongoing Eurozone slowdown, means foreign exporters are directing more supply to West Coast ports, particu- larly from Asia. This is creating a much more com- petitive market for logistics companies and any business involved in product distribution. While U.S. importers have greater buying power as the dollar strengthens against all major curren- cies, they will need to pay for goods in the exporter’s foreign currency in order to maintain that advantage. If an importer pays for goods in dollars, it gives up that extra buying power by handing the exporter the stronger currency, which can then be converted to receive more local cur- rency. Remember that it’s also standard practice for exporters to add an additional foreign exchange margin—sometimes as high as 10%—if they invoice you in dollars. As a first step, importers in Southern California should ask foreign exporters to pro- vide prices in their local currency. Once you receive an invoice in the foreign currency you can compare prices, securing current market pricing from a knowledgeable banking provider or FX advisor. After agreeing on a price you can ‘lock’ an exchange rate, including: Spot Values Typically these payments settle 1–2 days from booking. Forward Values Typically these payments match your purchase order date. Most invoices are paid within 12 months or less, depending on the goods involved. Five Financial Strategies Businesses Should Consider for 2015 Strong U.S. Dollar Among Factors Pushing Multinational Companies to Adopt Commercial Banking Strategies That Enhance Competitiveness Continued on page 28

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Page 1: 27 35 sfvbj economic forecast.qxp 2/4/2015 7:32 PM Page 27 ...their working capital so they can deploy cash wherever they need to. IMPORTERS: PAY IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES TO GAIN EXTRA

2015ECONOMICFORECAST&TRENDS

February 9, 2015 • An Advertising Supplement to the San Fernando Valley Business Journal

PRESENTED BY:

By DAN WILSON

AS businesses in Southern Californiaapproach the New Year, CFOs andtreasurers are assessing strategies to

navigate a changing—and increasingly compet-itive—marketplace. The U.S. dollar continuesto strengthen against other currencies, puttingdownward pressure on import prices andheightening competition among importerswhile creating currency risk. Speculation aboutthe Federal Reserve raising interest rates alsocontinues, and will likely result in interest ratevolatility in the coming months.

How can your business manage these risks andnavigate the changing landscape to gain an edgein the New Year? Here are five important strategiesto help enhance your competitiveness in 2015:

MATCH YOUR INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE WITH YOUR

BANK’S FOOTPRINT

Businesses in Southern California are increas-ingly pursuing new markets outside the U.S. Forcompanies seeking to go abroad for the first timeor looking to expand their existing internationalpresence, ensuring your global footprint matches

your commercial bank’s footprint is critical. Your commercial bank should have a presence

wherever you operate globally—meaning wher-ever you have employees and facilities—whetherit’s in Europe, Africa, Asia Pacific, or the MiddleEast. If your footprints don’t match, the lack offit may hinder your growth momentum over-seas. Working closely with a single bank that hasa presence everywhere you operate around theworld creates consistency, increases transparency,and improves economic efficiency for your busi-ness over the long term.

A banking provider with comprehensiveglobal cash management capabilities is alsoimperative to help strengthen your business’sliquidity management, risk management, andaccounting controls, while facilitating yourcross-border transactions. Bank of the West’sGlobal Cash Management team helps meetbusinesses’ treasury needs across internationalmarkets—giving them visibility over their cash,increasing their control, and helping optimizetheir working capital so they can deploy cashwherever they need to.

IMPORTERS: PAY IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES TO GAIN

EXTRA BUYING POWER

Southern California is home to large ports thatplay a central role in U.S. economic activity. Astrengthening dollar, along with the ongoingEurozone slowdown, means foreign exporters aredirecting more supply to West Coast ports, particu-

larly from Asia. This is creating a much more com-petitive market for logistics companies and anybusiness involved in product distribution.

While U.S. importers have greater buying poweras the dollar strengthens against all major curren-cies, they will need to pay for goods in theexporter’s foreign currency in order to maintainthat advantage. If an importer pays for goods indollars, it gives up that extra buying power byhanding the exporter the stronger currency, whichcan then be converted to receive more local cur-rency. Remember that it’s also standard practice forexporters to add an additional foreign exchangemargin—sometimes as high as 10%—if theyinvoice you in dollars.

As a first step, importers in SouthernCalifornia should ask foreign exporters to pro-vide prices in their local currency. Once youreceive an invoice in the foreign currency youcan compare prices, securing current marketpricing from a knowledgeable banking provideror FX advisor. After agreeing on a price you can‘lock’ an exchange rate, including:

● Spot Values Typically these payments settle 1–2days from booking.

● Forward Values Typically these paymentsmatch your purchase order date. Most invoicesare paid within 12 months or less, dependingon the goods involved.

Five Financial Strategies Businesses Should Consider for 2015Strong U.S. Dollar Among FactorsPushing Multinational Companies toAdopt Commercial Banking StrategiesThat Enhance Competitiveness

Continued on page 28

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28 AN ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT TO THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY BUSINESS JOURNAL FEBRUARY 9, 2015

An experienced commercial bank can recommendother hedging tools to help your business managecurrency risk and benefit from a strengthening dol-lar. Bank of the West’s Capital Markets team workswith clients to identify the best strategy for sendingmoney overseas so companies can take full advan-tage of FX opportunities.

EXPORTERS: REVIEW TRADE STRATEGIES FOR OVER-

SEAS BUYERS TO BE MORE COMPETITIVE

On the flip side, the stronger U.S. dollar meansexports—from technology products to scrap—leav-ing Southern California bound for other countriesare becoming more costly. In this kind of environ-ment, U.S. exporters’ default response is often tocut prices to keep sales uninterrupted. While nocompany likes to lose customers, reducing priceswill result in lower profits.

To offset the strong dollar and gain a competitiveedge over other U.S. exporters, suppliers selling over-seas should consider trade strategies such as extend-ing payment terms. Foreign buyers may be willing topay a higher price—relative to a strong dollar—forthe products, materials, or services they need if theycan negotiate more favorable payment terms, partic-ularly if liquidity tightens overseas or supply is dis-rupted.

Bank of the West’s Global Trade Solutions teamoffers a unique asset purchasing solution on foreignhigh-quality or insured receivables that can increasea company’s competitiveness by extending moreattractive credit terms to its buyers. This solution,which also applies to domestic transactions, allowsthe seller to accelerate its collection cycle, creating

incremental liquidity with no disruption as general-ly both the collection flow and the accountingtreatment remain unchanged.

GUARD AGAINST POTENTIAL INTEREST

RATE VOLATILITY

With U.S. job growth steady and the unemploy-ment rate improving, many economists includingBank of the West Chief Economist Scott Andersonexpect the Federal Reserve will begin hiking short-term interest rates as early as the third quarter of2015. Actively managing exposure in a volatile inter-est rate environment can help reduce one of theexpense uncertainties of running your business. Bankof the West’s Interest Rate Risk team works closelywith businesses to understand their unique operatingenvironment and considers economic and marketconditions before building and delivering prudentinterest rate hedging strategies.

EXPLORE INNOVATIVE WAYS TO MEET

CFO TARGETS

The technical targets of CFOs are becomingincreasingly aggressive. Often CFOs outgrow tradi-tional financial counsel and require more innovativethinking, especially when considering global implica-tions and common pain points such as internationalcash management and supply chain management.

CFOs often focus on trying to improve theircompany’s cash conversion cycle—how quicklytheir company gets paid. The ultimate goal is toaccelerate payments that the business is owed whilepushing back the money the business needs to payas long as possible. Whether this calculation puts abusiness in positive or negative territory oftendepends on the industry. Efficient retailers, for

instance, can be in the positive single digits when itcomes to the cash conversion cycle, while high-vol-ume, tech-based companies can have double-digitnegative numbers.

Operations and CFO targets can determine,among other things, whether the business spendscash, how much it borrows, and whether stock isissued. Prioritizing, balancing, and achieving CFOtargets are crucial to having a successful year. Bankof the West’s Commercial Banking Group worksclosely with growing businesses to deliver solu-tions—including innovative global supply chainand cash management strategies—to help themmeet and exceed targets.

Just like personal New Year’s resolutions, businessresolutions should be specific, realistic, and ambitious.If your business uses the five strategies we outline here,we think you’ll look forward to many happy returns.

Dan Wilson is an Executive Vice President at Bank ofthe West, leading the Southern California CommercialBanking team. Dan joined Bank of the West in 1976and has developed a premier team in SouthernCalifornia focused on relationship banking with anemphasis on driving the long-term growth of middle-market companies. Bank of the West’s CommercialBanking Group meets the rapidly changing needs ofgrowing businesses with annual revenues of $25 mil-lion and higher. As part of BNP Paribas’s global net-work of 75 countries and more than 185,000 employ-ees worldwide, Bank of the West ushers clients to anew phase of growth, whether they operate locally,nationally or internationally.

Certain interest rate risk products are subject to market risks and mayresult in possible financial loss. Always consult your tax professional.

2015 ECONOMIC FORECAST & TRENDS

Continued from page 27

ON Friday, January 30th, the Los Angeles Business Journal and the San Fernando Valley Business Journalhosted a roundtable style discussion on economic trends and forecasts for Los Angeles County andSouthern California. Our panel of regional experts shared their insights on the biggest headlines of

2014 and where they feel the market is going this year. Moderated by the Los Angeles Business Journal’sPublisher and CEO, Matt Toledo, the discussion was spirited, informative and insightful.

PANELISTS

JIM KRUSE

Senior Managing Director, InvestorServicesCBRE

LAWRENCE

HARRIS

Fred V. KeenanChair in Finance andProfessor of Financeand BusinessEconomicsUSC MarshallSchool of BusinessFormer ChiefEconomist, U.S.Securities &ExchangeCommission

DR. MARGARET

PETERSON

PresidentDignity Health -California HospitalMedical Center

SCOTT ANDERSON

Senior VicePresident and Chief EconomistBank of the West

ROBERTO

BARRAGAN

PresidentVEDC

LISA DETANNA

Senior VicePresident,InvestmentsManaging DirectorRaymond James,Global WealthSolutions Group

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30 AN ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT TO THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY BUSINESS JOURNAL FEBRUARY 9, 2015

By LEWIS C. HORNE

W ITH some of the largest commercial real estatedeals of the past two years involving majorChinese investment firms – names largely

unknown here but ubiquitous in Asia – the Los Angelesmarket is at the forefront of what is expected to bemajor influx of Asian capital over the next several years.

In 2014 alone, Los Angeles saw a 141 percentincrease in Chinese investment compared to 2013.With high-profile deals in 2013 and 2014 command-ing record pricing and totaling close to $1 billion—including Dalian Wanda Group’s purchase of 9900Wilshire, Shenzen Hazen Group purchase of the LuxeHotel, Shanghai Greendland Group’s acquisition ofMetropolis, and Oceanwide’s acquisition of FigCentral—Los Angeles has become one of the mosttalked about destinations for Chinese investment.This boom in activity is fueling much discussion anddebate as to what’s driving this trend and how thesemajor new players will alter the commercial realestate landscape here.

Recently, I had the opportunity to join the AsianTrade Mission with Mayor Eric Garcetti and a delega-tion leaders organized by Los Angeles CountyEconomic Development Corporation (LEADC), LosAngeles Business Council (LABC) and Los Angeles AreaChamber of Commerce. Over the course of our 12-daytrip, we visited a number of cities in China andthroughout Asia, during which we met with key gov-ernment and business leaders and gained valuableinsights into the social, political and economic driversthat are fueling foreign investment of Chinese capital.

We also created deeper economic ties to promote inter-national trade, tourism and investment in Los Angeles,delivering the message that Los Angeles is ready, willingand able to do business with the Pacific Rim.

One of the most interesting insights from the trip ishow fast China and its economic engine have grown inthe last 30 years. In a very short amount of time, thiscountry has developed and innovated to a level ofsophistication that has taken most countries more than200 years to achieve. And yet their deep, rich culturalhistory remains core to their modern society. That said,a desire for diversification and insulation from possibleeconomic instability are causing more and moreChinese capital – including government sponsored-enti-ties, high-net worth individuals, and institutionalinvestors such as banks, corporate pension funds andinsurance funds – to look to viable markets for steadygrowth outside of China. Today, Los Angeles hasemerged as one of the top global destinations for thesesavvy investors.

Consider these eye-opening statistics:• Since January 2007, total investment activity in

U.S. commercial real estate from mainland Chinatotaled approximately $10.5 billion. Of that total,$8.2 billion—78.1 percent—has been invested inthe last two years alone, illustrating the growingappetite for U.S. properties. The Chinese appear tohave a major preference for primary gateway citiesacross the U.S., specifically larger, more stable mar-kets like New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco andChicago. These four markets accounted for 95.4percent of the total investment activity sinceJanuary 2013.

• Between 2007 and 2013, Chinese investment per-centage in the Los Angeles metro area averaged only9.6 percent of the U.S. total, but in 2014 it grew to

15.0 percent. This equates to a significant rise intotal investment value from an average of $105 mil-lion per year between 2007 and 2013 to $908 mil-lion in 2014. While historically Chinese investors have preferred

core office product due to the stability and consistentreturns, we’ve seen a shift to as most of the largesttransactions in Los Angeles have involved high-profile,mixed-use development sites. Ground-up developmentopportunities are gaining favor with Chinese investorsand they are committing to a growing number ofmultibillion-dollar developments across the U.S. Manyof the largest Chinese developers have had great suc-cess both in mainland China and in secondary marketssuch as London and Australia. These developers, havingacquired a taste for hotel and for-sale condominiumprojects, have a desire to replicate that success in theU.S. with luxury offerings.

Additionally, activity is not just limited to develop-ers and investors–occupiers are also looking for officeand industrial space in the U.S, including Los Angeles.In the case of large developers, many firms have estab-lished U.S. based offices to house team operations asthey search for available sites and supervise construc-tion activities. Other types of occupiers are looking atthe U.S. for the same reason as investors – opportunity.

The overarching trends of Chinese investment andincreased occupier activity have only gained momen-tum since the onset of 2014, and are rapidly gainingsteam. This trend is expected to continue, and as moreChinese developers and investors plant their flag inU.S. soil, a geographic clustering effect will likely con-tinue to grow in key U.S. markets, and particularly herein Los Angeles.

Lewis C. Horne is CBRE’s President of Greater Los Angelesand Orange County.

2015 ECONOMIC FORECAST & TRENDS

Los Angeles Emerges as a Top Global Destinationfor Chinese Investment

Chinese capital infusion inL.A. nearly doubles in 2014

VEDC is a leading non-profit small businesslender that is changing the way small businesslending gets done by making it more available,

sustainable and impactful. As a certifiedCommunity Development FinancialInstitution (CDFI), VEDC’s mission is tohelp create jobs and promote economicdevelopment in under-served communities.They provide loans and micro-financingoptions to small businesses, particularlythose owned by women and minorities, that don’tquality for traditional bank financing.

VEDC is an authorized SBA 7(a) lender under theCommunity Advantage Loan Program which allowsthem to make loans that may not be available else-where. VEDC offers many loan products backed by theSBA from a microloan to a Community Advantage Loanup to a SBA 504 loan to purchase commercial real estate.Their SBA loan portfolio is expanding with their foot-print bringing alternative small business loans acrossthe nation.

From their headquarters in the Greater Los Angelesarea, VEDC has supported small business owners for38 years with the goal of creating and sustaining jobsand businesses by providing high-quality small busi-ness development services. Founded in 1976, the orga-nization’s mission has expanded in order to respond tothe financial assistance and development needs ofentrepreneurs conducting business in low to moderate-income communities.

VEDC believes that the major barrier for today’ssmall business is access to capital. Without adequatefinancing, many small businesses are prevented fromthriving. That is why VEDC focuses its efforts onlending and guiding small businesses to achievegrowth and sustainability. Their interest is to get loan

funds in the hands of minority and low-income bor-rowers so that businesses can be created, maintained,and expanded.

In fact, VEDC has been instrumentalin helping to create economic opportuni-ties in underserved areas for those whowant to improve their financial standardsand build stronger communities. Theorganization has assisted more than98,000 businesses in creating and retain-

ing over 27,000 jobs, opening over 1,700 new busi-nesses, and graduating more than 3,100 individualsfrom the Entrepreneurial Training Program. VEDC hasalso provided more than $360,000,000 in direct andguaranteed lending to small businesses. Historically,75 % of VEDC clients are located in low- to moderate-income areas and 65% have been minority andwomen entrepreneurs.

It has been proven that a combination of techni-cal assistance, access to capital and partnerships withlocal workforce and business assistance agencies arecritical to entrepreneurial success which is whyVEDC offers training and financial services. The suc-cess of small businesses and the creation of jobs isthe key ingredient in developing healthy and sus-tainable communities.

VEDC has consistently provided services to smalland medium sized business owners, entrepreneurs andmembers of the communities they serve. Locally, theorganization operates a Small Business Administration(SBA) sponsored Women’s Business Center, PacoimaDevelopment Federal Credit Union, and two LosAngeles Business Source Centers. The combination ofthese successful programs, that anticipates the needs ofgrowing businesses in an ever-changing economy, hascreated a focused vision of economic opportunity,

effective organization of resources, and the fostering ofjob creation.

VEDC offers a core of free business workshops andeach year over 5,000 small businesses access theseservices. Their Business Services Division offersentrepreneurs the tools they need to succeed in busi-ness with access to consulting and training to busi-ness owners and VEDC loan clients as part of anongoing strategy not only to help people start a busi-ness but to assist them with capacity building andgrowth strategies.

The organization offers a wide range of lending andtraining services in the Los Angeles area including:

Business Loan Programs

• Microloan Programs in amounts ranging from$1,000 to $50,000

• Small Business Loan Programs in amounts rangingfrom $50,000 to $700,000

• SBA 7(a), including Community Advantage, inamounts up to $2,000,000

• SBA 504 Commercial Real Estate Loan Program

Business Services and Training Programs

• SBA Sponsored Women’s Business Center in VanNuys, CA

• Two City of Los Angeles Business Source Centerslocated in Pacoima and Reseda

• Microenterprise and Entrepreneurial TrainingPrograms

• Travelers Small Business Risk Education Program

VEDC’s expanding portfolio is composed of community-based loan funds in Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco,Las Vegas, Miami, Salt Lake City and the New York Tri-State area. For more information visit www.vedc.org.

VEDC: A Uniquely Positioned Resource for Small Businesses

ECONOMICDEVELOPMENTKEY PLAYERPROFILE

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FEBRUARY 9, 2015 AN ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT TO THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY BUSINESS JOURNAL 31

Build onAdvantage

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32 AN ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT TO THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY BUSINESS JOURNAL FEBRUARY 9, 2015

Los Angeles and Turkey: A Unique Economic Relationship with a Hidden Gem

2015 ECONOMIC FORECAST & TRENDS

By FATMA YUCELER

SINCE coming to Los Angeles in 2010, I have dis-covered first hand that this impressive, multi-cul-tural city is one of the eminent economic cross-

roads of the world. Did you know that compared to the economies of

the world’s top 20 countries, Los Angeles County ranks21st in the world? Additionally, the state of Californiaranks is ninth in the world economy ranking.

Los Angeles also feature the No. 1 import/exportport in the United States, becoming the first U.S.Customs district in history to record more than $400billion in exports and imports in one year with a$403.96 billion trade total for 2012, and is expected totop half a billion in the coming years.

According to the Los Angeles EconomicDevelopment Corporation, tourism and hospitalityranks among the top industries in LA County, employ-ing around 372,000 people, representing nearly 1 outof every 10 jobs in LA County.

Another driving force in the local economy is LosAngeles International Airport (LAX). As the gateway tothe west coast, LAX is the sixth busiest passenger air-port in the world. In 2013, LAX served nearly 66.7 mil-lion passengers, and processed more than 1.9 milliontons of air cargo valued at more than $91.6 billion.

Each year, the Turkish Minister of Economy andDevelopment visits Los Angeles with a delegation of 70strong to network with local business interests. I supportthem and work closely with the Los Angeles Chamber ofCommerce to foster expanded trade between Turkey andthe U.S. I also head up the Los Angeles Turkish CorporateClub, which provides business incentives, discounts andbusiness allowances to make business travel easier.

Also, I am working with several local trade and con-sumer organizations to put together a trade missionbetween Turkey and U.S. in the next year.

I believe trade between the U.S. and Europe has con-sistently been a driving economic force for good. Theimportance of U.S.-European trade relations can be nei-ther overstated nor overlooked. Since 1953, formaltransatlantic relations have been held between the U.S.and the European Union. The member states of the EUcomprise a market of nearly 500 million consumers,and non-EU European countries, including Turkey, alsoprovide vital markets for U.S. exporters and investors.

The intricate integration of the U.S. and EU trademarkets has been one of the major catalysts of global-ization, which has led to greater interconnectednessworldwide. Advancements in commerce and technolo-gy have transformed the way we do business and inter-act with each other at every level, from the products wesell to the relationships we form. Markets previouslyunknown or underrated have been tapped to promoteproductivity and specialization, raising countless mil-lions out of poverty.

As evidenced by the recent global recession, we areincreasingly connected to and deeply affected by eachother’s setbacks as well as each other’s successes.Perhaps the most relevant reality of globalization,which has been growing exponentially for years, is thatit has changed the market landscape in such a way thatin order for countries to achieve and maintain prosperi-ty nowadays, they must look beyond obvious traderoutes to those hidden gem of opportunity that willgive them competitive advantage and distinguishthemselves on the world stage.

One such hidden gem of opportunity for the U.S.,and Los Angeles specifically, is my beloved homeland,Turkey. For centuries, from the days of Constantinople,Turkey has played a pivotal role in international trade.Much like modern day Los Angeles, Istanbul is a promi-nent global city that literally bridges the divide between continents and cultures.

With one foot in Europe and the other in Asia,Turkey currently flourishes from an impressive surge in

tourism. According to the Turkish Ministry of Cultureand Tourism, the country welcomed 34.9 million non-Turkish visitors in 2013, a 9.84 percent increase com-pared to the previous year.

Istanbul was recently named the top worldwide des-tination in the annual TripAdvisor travelers’ choice des-tination awards, as determined by travelers’ reviews onthe website. Widely acclaimed as the perfect definitionof a European vacation, the city of Istanbul is overflow-ing with an incredibly rich culture and history thatspans civilizations over 10,000 years. Travelers can alsofind pristine white-sand beaches and crystal clearwaters if they venture to the southern region of Turkey.

Turkey’s significant boost in tourism, a primary con-tributor to the country’s gross domestic product, hasreinforced its status as a thriving business center and aviable trade partner. According to World TradeOrganization estimates, global trade volume of mer-chandise and services from Turkey is expected toincrease by 4.7 percent in 2014 and 5.3 percent in 2015.

In the first quarter of 2014 compared to the same peri-od of 2013, Turkish exports increased by 7.2 percent andimports decreased by 1.7 percent, manifesting Turkey’sdetermination to produce and sell more in the globalmarketplace. In 2012, according to EU data, Turkey out-performed 25 EU countries with its debt/gdp ratio and 14EU countries in terms of unemployment ratio.Furthermore, according to the World Bank, as of 2012,after Russia, Germany, England and France, Turkey hasthe 5th largest labor force among the European countries.

Turkey offers foreign investors a young and dynamicpopulation, a qualified and competitive labor force, lowtax rates and incentive facilities, a liberal investmentclimate in an open domestic market, and a central loca-tion between Europe and Asia.

Turkey’s robust economic figures indicate golden

opportunities for investors in areas such as tourism, con-struction, technical consultancy, contracting, and com-mercial services. The required time to start a business is 6days in Turkey. Thirty-eight out of the world’s top 250contracting companies are Turkish. Also, Turkey ranksonly behind China in terms of the number of top con-tracting companies. With 45,000 trucks and 1,420 compa-nies, Turkey currently maintains Europe’s largest truckfleet. The country also operates 52 airports and 76 ports.In 2013, the country oversaw almost 1.2 million flights in2013 with 2.6 million tons in freight and 149.5 millionpassengers. The total length of divided highways in Turkeywill soon reach 15 thousand kilometers, and high-speedrailway projects are rapidly under way.

In the field of energy, Turkey aims to achieve the fol-lowing targets by 2030:• Make complete use of its potential of indigenous

coal and hydro resources, • Make maximum use of renewable resources, • Incorporate nuclear energy into electricity genera-

tion, and• Secure rapid and continuous improvement in energy

efficiency.As Turkey continues to undergo the EU membership

screening process, 178 trade representatives from theministry are serving in 110 countries, 160 locations and 6offices abroad. Indeed, Turkey is serious about its intentto trade and connect with countries any way it can.

In conclusion, we know that as globalizationabounds, we must look for and tap hidden areas of eco-nomic opportunity. From my perspective, the econom-ic relationship between Turkey and Los Angeles contin-ues to thrive, and can only prosper in the future.

Fatma Yuceler is Turkish Airlines’ General Manager,Western States USA.

ENDURANCE International Group last weekreleased the results of a survey of its U.S.-based small business customers. The survey

found that 66% of small business owners have apositive economic outlook for 2015 as compared to2014. However, a majority (69%) remains deeplyskeptical that the new leadership in Congress will beable to address issues important to small businesses.

The results of the survey, released on the eve ofPresident Obama's sixth State of the Union address,reveal that while 87% of U.S. small businesses feelthat Congress has not been effective in addressingissues important to small businesses, 74% believethat Congress should play a larger role in helpinggrow U.S. small businesses. A majority (61%) ofsmall business owners do not believe that thePresident's State of the Union address will have sig-nificant impact on their business planning for 2015.

Asked to rank key issues important to small busi-nesses, survey respondents ranked Taxes as well astheir Ability to Obtain Bank Financing as their toptwo concerns. On other key policy issues, 55% of sur-vey respondents said Tax Code Reform also ‘Impactsmy business significantly.’ Survey respondents weremixed on the impact of Healthcare Reform, with37% responding that it ‘Impacts my business signifi-cantly,’ 36% responding ‘No Impact’ and 27%responding ‘Impacts my business in minor ways.’

The Endurance customers surveyed, all of whomhave web presence solutions from the company, regardNet Neutrality as an important issue. 49% respondedthat Net Neutrality ‘Impacts my business significantly.’

Endurance International Group is a leading tech-

nology provider of cloud-based platform solutions tohelp small and medium-sized businesses succeedonline. Endurance, through its family of brands,supports more than 3.8 million subscribers globally.

‘U.S. small businesses are the backbone of oureconomy and ensuring their continued growth andsuccess is critically important to driving our countryforward,’ said Endurance CEO and Founder, HariRavichandran. ‘Our survey shows that while smallbusinesses remain upbeat about the future, concernsabout tax code reform and bank financing remaintop of mind. It's clear that our leaders inWashington need to keep small business at the topof their list of priorities when thinking about waysto create lasting economic growth.’

Endurance conducted its survey of 850 U.S.-basedsmall businesses from January 7 to January 15, 2015.For purposes of this survey, small businesses aredefined as employing 10 or less people on either afull-time or part-time basis.

Endurance International Group helps small andmedium-sized business owners establish, manageand grow their businesses by harnessing the powerand promise of the web. As a leading provider ofcloud-based platform solutions to help small andmedium-sized business owners succeed online,Endurance, through its family of brands – includingBluehost, HostGator, iPage, Domain.com, A SmallOrange, MOJO Marketplace and ResellerClub – sup-ports over 3.8 million subscribers and is able to tai-lor solutions for small businesses at every stage andlevel of sophistication. For more information, visitendurance.com.

U.S. Small Business Owners Have PositiveEconomic Outlook For 2015

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Q&A with Dr. Margaret Peterson of California Hospital Medical Center

2015 ECONOMIC FORECAST & TRENDS

Margaret R. Peterson, PhD, is president ofDignity Health-California Hospital MedicalCenter, which is a 318-bed acute care hospital

serving downtown Los Angeles. She also serves as amember of the Los Angeles County Emergency MedicalServices Commission.

How has the Affordable Care Act and CoveredCalifornia impacted hospitals?Dr. Peterson: When Health Reform became law andinsurance cards were issued to so many people whonever had health insurance before, providers knew ouremergency departments would be inundated becausethis would be consumers’ first point of contact with ahealth care provider. This past year, the low incomehealth plans were rolled into Medi-Cal, which is thestate’s insurance program serving low-income families,seniors, persons with disabilities, children in foster care,pregnant women, and certain low-income adults. Inaddition, the Medi-Cal plans were expanded to incorpo-rate what ACA brought into play and that broadenedthe number of people who were going to access healthcare. In theory, what makes this work is offering healthcare services in a very coordinated fashion where all ofthese people are going to be assigned to a ‘medicalhome,’ meaning they’d be assigned to a primary carephysician or a medical group with multiple physicians.

How has assigning a medical home to patientsworked thus far?Dr. Peterson: From the outset, these medical homeshave not been equipped to handle the tremendousinflux of people seeking health care services through

Covered California and the Medi-Cal programs, so inmany cases access is limited and they’re coming tohospital emergency departments for care. For 20, 30 oreven 40 years, these people didn’t have any kind ofcare other than what they were able to get from theirneighbor or pharmacist. They were showing up withsome major chronic illnesses and problems with a150% to 300% cost on the reimbursement dollar toaddress these chronic illnesses. So it’s been very expen-sive to care for this population. In time, we believesome of this will change because providers are incen-tivized based on having these patients not use expen-sive health care services such as those provided in hos-pitals, which tend to be the most expensive element inthe health care world. Eventually, the health care sys-tem will become more efficient with providing well-ness care to these patients, so when this occurs it willimpact us in a different way.

How have services evolved at California Hospital to meet community needs?Dr. Peterson: California Hospital has been serving LosAngeles for 128 years and has evolved to provide aninteresting array of high quality services, especially dur-ing the past decade. We are the busiest private TraumaCenter in Los Angeles County and treat people with avariety of traumatic injuries, including injuries from autoaccidents, heart attacks and violent crimes. We serve ayounger population driven by our large obstetrics pro-gram where we deliver 350 new babies each month. Wehave incredible physicians simply because of the traumaprogram which requires us to have highly skilled special-ists who not only care for trauma patients, but these spe-

cialists also provide care to any surgical patient whocomes through our doors. One of our newest programs isour dynamic Los Angeles Center for Women’s Health,which is an outpatient center dedicated to women andoffers a variety of services including mammography andultrasound, all in a comfortable environment.

What are the biggest challenges facing CaliforniaHospital in the coming years?Dr. Peterson: A big part of what we have to do is tocreate a solid foundation, determine who we areserving and what we need to do to meet the needs ofour community. Our highly skilled specialists willcontinue to play a huge part in the programs weoffer. We want to be the best in our business, andwhen you talk about being the best in healthcare it’sreally about looking at the outcomes. Much of howwe will be judged and how we will be reimbursed forcare going forward will be based on statistical datafrom our outcomes, including what happens to thatpatient once they enter your health system, and inwhat condition they exit your health system. Wecan’t stop at the exit door. We have to think aboutwhat’s going to happen when they leave us becausewe don’t want them coming back to us within 30days, which is another value measure that the feder-al government is using to evaluate hospital perform-ance and quality of care. We need to continue tostrengthen the outcomes we have on a day-to-daybasis. Serving the needs of the community isabsolutely key to our success and achieving our over-all goal of being the best downtown hospital vingthe residents Los Angeles.

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