2.4 WINTER STORM - OhioLake Erie during the evening hours of November 23rd. An arctic cold front trailing this low swept east across Ohio by the early morning hours of the 24th. Cold

State of Ohio Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan Rev. May 2014

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2.4 WINTER STORM Canadian and Arctic cold fronts that push cold temperatures, ice, and snow into the State generally cause winter storms, blizzards, and ice storms in Ohio. Severe winter weather in Ohio consists of freezing temperatures and heavy precipitation, usually in the form of snow, freezing rain, or sleet. Severe winter weather affects all parts of the State. Blizzard conditions occur when the following conditions last three hours or longer:

· 35 mph or greater wind speeds, · considerable snowfall and blowing snow bringing visibility below ¼ mile,

and, · temperatures of 20º F or lower.

Severe blizzards have wind speeds exceeding 45 mph, visibility near zero, and temperatures of 10º F or lower. While Ohio residents and governments are accustomed to handling winter storm events, occasional extreme events can make conditions dangerous and disruptive. Heavy snow volume makes snow removal difficult. Trees, cars, roads, and other surfaces develop a coating of ice, making even small accumulations of ice extremely hazardous to motorists and pedestrians. The most prevalent impacts of heavy accumulations of ice are slippery roads and walkways that lead to vehicle and pedestrian accidents; collapsed roofs from fallen trees and limbs from heavy ice and snow loads; and felled trees, telephone poles and lines, electrical wires, and communication towers. As a result of severe ice storms, telecommunications and power can be disrupted for days. The northeastern portion of Ohio near the Great Lakes experiences what is known as “lake-effect snow” (see Figure 2.4.a). As cold air passes over the relatively warm waters of the large lakes, the weather system absorbs moisture and heat, and releases this in the form of snow. Lake effect snowfall intensity is affected by:

· the contrast between lake and air temperatures, · the distance air has traveled over water, known as the fetch, and · the regional weather conditions-- a snow storm’s maximum penetration

inland will generally be greatest during late autumn/early winter and shortest during the late winter.


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Figure 2.4.a Generation of Lake Effect Snow

Source: The Weather Doctor, http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/elements/lkefsnw2.htm

Lake-effect snowstorms have been known to cause continuous snowfall for as long as 48 hours over a sharply defined region. One single, intense local storm cell can yield as much as 48 inches of light-density snow in 24 hours or less. Consequently, snowfalls can vary greatly, with areas of deep snowfall adjacent to areas with relatively little snow. Snow and strong easterly wind conditions ahead of a warm front usually cause ice storms. The snow, however, changes temporarily to sleet and then to rain that freezes when it hits the ground, covering exposed surfaces with a layer of ice. Local accumulations of ice may be heavy if the storm halts over a region for extended periods of time. Ice storms lasting more than 12 hours usually produce ice accumulations several inches thick and affect an area that may range from a few square miles to areas covering several states. The typical ice storm swath is 30 miles wide and 300 miles long.

RISK ASSESSMENT

Location Winter storms are non-spatial hazards; therefore, it is difficult to determine the actual location of the damage that may result from a winter storm event. In an effort to conquer this limitation the mean annual snow depth from 1994 to 2003 was mapped (see Map 2.4.a).


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Map 2.4.a


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Most of the counties in Region 1 have experienced a mid-level (24.1” – 36”) of snow in the time frame specified. However, Lucas, Van Wert, Auglaize, Logan, and Hardin counties have sparse areas where higher snow levels have been experienced. Historically, Region 2 has experienced the highest mean annual snow depth. The Region contains all of the counties that have experienced the highest annual mean snow depth, with parts of Geauga and Ashtabula counties having the highest in the state, and Lake, Cuyahoga, Portage, and Trumbull having the second highest in the state. The largest number of counties within the lower portion of Region 3 has had a moderate mean annual snow depth. The upper section of the region has, for the most part, a medium depth with parts of Columbiana, Carroll, and Tuscarawas having higher depths than other counties in the region. As a result, it appears that the lower portions of this region have the least chance of receiving a significant event when compared to upper portions of the region.

Past Occurrences Ohio experienced more than 280 severe winter storms between 1925 and 2014. Several storms were notable and, since 1964, two involved federal declarations. In January 1978, the Great Blizzard of 1978 closed homes and businesses for one week and caused the deaths of 51 people. Wind gusts reached 70 mph and caused blowing and drifting snow. The worst winter storm in Ohio history struck before dawn on Thursday, January 26, 1978. The Blizzard of ’78 continued through Thursday and into Friday. Transportation, business, industry, and schools were closed statewide for two days with the normal pace of society not returning to the state for five days. Atmospheric pressure fell to 28.28 inches at Cleveland, the lowest ever recorded in Ohio, as the center of the blizzard crossed Ohio. This rapidly intensifying storm pulled bitterly cold air across Ohio on winds of 50 to 70 mph. These conditions, combined with heavy snow and blowing of deep snow already on the ground, caused extreme blizzard conditions all across Ohio. Enormous snowdrifts covered cars and houses, blocked highways and railways, and closed all airports for two days. More than 5,000 members of the Ohio National Guard were called to duty and were pressed into long hours of work with heavy equipment clearing roads, assisting electric utility crews, rescuing stranded persons, and transporting doctors and nurses to hospitals. Forty-five National Guard helicopters flew 2,700 missions across Ohio rescuing thousands of stranded persons, many in dire medical emergencies. Thousands of volunteers with snowmobiles and four-wheel drive vehicles responded to pleas from police statewide to deliver medicine and transport doctors and nurses to hospitals. The death toll of 51 made this one of the deadliest winter storms in Ohio history. As a result of this event, Ohio counties received a total of $3,546,669 in public assistance funds.


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February 2003 (DR-1453). , Prior to this event, a several series of low pressure systems tracked through the Ohio River valley, producing up to four inches of snow across west central Ohio all through the month of January. The main event happened when a warm front ahead of low pressure passing through the Tennessee Valley brought abundant moisture to the Ohio Valley on east-southeast winds. Cold air was already in place on the surface and conditions were right for snow accumulation of 6 to 8 inches to occur over much of the region north of the Ohio River. Counties closest to the Ohio River saw some ice accumulations to a quarter or a half inch, but the majority of the weather associated with this system was heavy snow along the I-70 corridor. Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Guernsey, Monroe and Muskingum counties received record snow fall from this event. Adams, Gallia, Lawrence, Meigs and Scioto Counties had severe ice accumulation in addition to snow that downed trees and power lines. Loss of power to water treatment and sewage systems resulted in the loss of water pressure to customers. For those who had some water, boil alerts were issued. In Gallia County, most of the water customers lost service and needed generators to restore service. Booster station in the affected areas did not have full power until a week after the storm hit the region. At one time more than an estimated 12,000 customers were without water. As a result of this event, thirty Ohio counties received a total of $15,761,979.42 in public assistance funds. December 2004 – January 2005 (DR-1580). A low pressure system moved into the northeast across the Ohio Valley. Cold west to northwest winds behind the low caused lake effect snow showers to develop in Northeast Ohio. This activity began during the predawn hours of the 16th and continued through midday on the 17th. The heaviest fell during the late afternoon and evening hours of the 16th when visibilities at times were near zero. Accumulations ranged from 6 to 8 inches in Geauga, southern Ashtabula and eastern Cuyahoga Counties. This storm system affected four additional counties to the previous storm and caused an approximate $106,901,000 in property damage. As a result of this event, Ohio counties received a total of $7,948,685.48 in public assistance funds. January - February 2005 (EM-3198). , An Alberta Clipper passed to the north of Lake Erie during the evening hours of November 23rd. An arctic cold front trailing this low swept east across Ohio by the early morning hours of the 24th. Cold northwest winds behind this front caused lake effect snow showers to develop just before daybreak on the 24th. These bands quickly intensified and by mid-morning, visibilities in some areas were less than one quarter mile. Northwest winds gusting in excess of 30 mph accompanied the snow and caused considerable blowing and drifting. The snow showers tapered to flurries during the early evening hours. Snowfall totals of 6 to 9 inches were reported in both Geauga and inland Ashtabula Counties by sunset on the 24th. Then, after midnight on the 25th, an upper level disturbance rotated through the region. This caused a new round of lake effect snow showers to develop. This activity diminished during the afternoon of the 25th after another 6 to 9 inches of snow had fallen. Two day totals for this event exceed a foot of snow in many locations.


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A peak of 15.6 inches was measured in Hambden Township (Geauga County) with 14 inches at Hartsgrove (Ashtabula County). This storm system affected four additional counties to the previous storm and caused an approximate $5,475,000 in property damage. As a result of this event, Ohio counties received a total of $1,447,217.85 in public assistance funds. March 2008 (EM-3286). On the morning of March 7th, snow spread into the region during the morning and afternoon hours, then tapered off during the evening and overnight into the 8th. Snow intensified across the area as low pressure moved north into the Carolinas by the morning of the 8th. Snow persisted across much of the area, but did mix with sleet and freezing rain at times across far eastern Ohio. By the evening hours of the 8th, snow began tapering off from west to east. Any areas of mixed precipitation across far eastern Ohio changed back to snow before ending. The low pressure continued intensifying as it moved into New England by the morning hours of the 9th. Some light snow and flurries persisted overnight, mainly from around Cleveland and points east, but by midday on the 9th the snow tapered off across the entire area. Throughout this event, locations across northwest Ohio picked up between 5 and 10 inches. Those locations experienced a rather steep gradient for snowfall totals. In eastern Ohio, snowfall amounts were slightly lower as sleet and freezing rain mixed in at times causing reduced snowfall amounts. Locations across northeast and north-central Ohio saw the greatest snowfall amounts with 21.5 inches in Broadview Heights in Cuyahoga County, and 21.0 inches in Galion located in Crawford County. As a result of this event, Ohio counties received a total of $1,709,668.49 in public assistance funds.

Probability of Future Events Map 2.4.a depicts National Climatic Data Center figures of Ohio’s annual mean snow depth for the years 1994 to 2003. Southern portions of Ohio have mean snow depths of 12 to 24 inches and central Ohio has between 24 and 36 inches. However, the northeastern corner of the state has mean snow depths of 48 to more than 72 inches. In terms of probability, the snow depth with a 5% chance of being exceeded in any given year is between 50 and 60 inches in parts of Ohio. However, the vast majority of Ohio has the same chance of exceeding only 10 to 30 inches. The higher snowfall totals and probability for the northeastern portion of Ohio can be attributed to the lake effect snows caused by the area’s proximity to the Great Lakes. Global climate change may have an impact on the probability of future events; however, it is unclear as to the extent of this impact.

LHMP Data Cuyahoga County. The Countywide All Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan of October 2010 states that severe winter weather can pose consequences to Cuyahoga County in terms of power outages, impassible roadways, and safety concerns. As occurrences of severe winter weather are random in nature,


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historic events were referenced to determine Cuyahoga County’s susceptibility. According to the National Climatic Data Center website, between1993 - 2010, Cuyahoga County has been impacted by 81 severe winter weather events that have accounted for $254,160,000 in damages to affected areas throughout the State. Lake County. The Lake County Hazard Risk Assessment of October 2010 indicates there have been 99 severe winter storms from 1950 to 2010. These types of storms are known to expend 15% of the snow removal budget and have left 185,000 customers without power. After extensive examination and spreadsheet calculations, loss estimates show $113,173,477 in structure damage d business functional loss of $4,351,419 for a total of $117,524,895. Ashtabula County. The HIRA of the Ashtabula County Countywide All Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan of August 2012 examines subcategories of winter storms: blizzards, ice storms, lake effect snow on the southeastern Lake Erie Snow Belt and extreme cold. From 1993 to 2011, there were 105 severe winter events causing a total of over $200 million in property and crop damage. The frequency is the expectation of eight storms in any given year. SHARPP. Hazard identification data were queried from SHARPP to evaluate each hazard and its frequency. Considering all hazards identified in the local plans, winter storms ranked second in terms of frequency among the counties in the state (Chart 2.2.a). In terms of local magnitude, winter storms ranked the highest since most storms affect a large percentage of the land area within a given community when they occur. While ranking high for frequency and magnitude, winter storms ranked low for onset and property losses. Most winter storms are fairly predictable in terms of location and timing, which most likely resulted in low onset rankings. Also, property losses associated with these storms are fairly low compared to other hazards like flooding or tornadoes. According to records and data entered to date into vulnerability assessments, losses from winter storms are estimated at 428,792 residential structures ($14,487,090,117), 23,547 non-residential structures ($5,080,739,305) and 1,192 critical facilities ($2,034,278,248). These and additional HIRA data queried from SHARPP can be found in Appendix J.

VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS & LOSS ESTIMATION

Methodology The 10-year winter storm losses (1994-2003) for each county provided the basis for estimating potential vulnerability and losses. To yield the per capita 10-year damage total for each county, the total damage for the decade was divided by the 2001 population. That figure divided by ten, resulted in the annual per capita damage figure for severe winter storms in each county (in raw dollar unadjusted for inflation). This is the figure that appears in the right column in Table 2.4.a.


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Results Using 2001 population estimates and winter storm loss data spanning a decade, the state can expect an annual winter storm loss of $13.07 per capita, which equates to a statewide winter storm loss of approximately $1,481,380,006 (see Table 2.4.a). The 10-Year loss includes all residential, commercial, governmental structures, as well as infrastructure and public facilities for each county.


Allen 108,522 $1,375,000 $1.27 Ashland 52,786 $19,821,000 $37.55 Adams 27,225 $26,381,000 $96.90 Auglaize 46,453 $15,651,000 $33.69 Ashtabula 102,729 $42,823,000 $41.69 Athens 62,792 $11,415,000 $18.18 Champaign 39,210 $16,551,000 $42.21 Butler 335,992 $18,686,000 $5.56 Belmont 69,605 $838,000 $1.20 Clark 143,969 $16,551,000 $11.50 Cuyahoga 1,384,252 $43,876,000 $3.17 Brow n 43,425 $27,860,000 $64.16 Clinton 41,277 $17,536,000 $42.48 Delaw are 118,215 $16,951,000 $14.34 Carroll 29,011 $6,635,000 $22.87 Craw ford 46,695 $13,196,000 $28.26 Fairf ield 125,109 $19,961,000 $15.95 Clermont 180,970 $17,891,000 $9.89 Darke 53,178 $71,151,000 $133.80 Franklin 1,081,784 $16,125,000 $1.49 Columbiana 111,684 $1,435,000 $1.28 Defiance 39,195 $6,250,000 $15.95 Geauga 92,294 $47,743,000 $51.73 Coshocton 36,803 $5,395,000 $14.66 Erie 79,321 $19,598,000 $24.71 Greene 148,530 $16,551,000 $11.14 Gallia 30,929 $12,710,000 $41.09 Fayette 28,387 $15,361,000 $54.11 Hamilton 838,134 $17,886,000 $2.13 Guernsey 40,899 $1,835,000 $4.49 Fulton 42,334 $12,367,000 $29.21 Knox 55,250 $17,726,000 $32.08 Harrison 15,813 $895,000 $5.66 Hancock 71,745 $14,658,000 $20.43 Lake 227,324 $46,870,000 $20.62 Highland 40,875 $17,000,006 $41.59 Hardin 31,945 $1,405,000 $4.40 Licking 149,080 $16,711,000 $11.21 Hocking 28,241 $19,945,000 $70.62 Henry 29,090 $1,812,000 $6.23 Lorain 285,798 $42,236,000 $14.78 Holmes 39,539 $21,714,000 $54.92 Huron 59,775 $15,986,000 $26.74 Mahoning 254,810 $22,344,000 $8.77 Jackson 32,743 $12,655,000 $38.65 Logan 46,115 $1,875,000 $4.07 Medina 154,718 $20,481,000 $13.24 Jefferson 72,705 $335,000 $0.46 Lucas 454,029 $27,592,000 $6.08 Montgomery 553,579 $16,551,000 $2.99 Law rence 62,017 $12,055,000 $19.44 Madison 40,158 $16,651,000 $41.46 Pickaw ay 52,840 $14,961,000 $28.31 Meigs 22,920 $12,660,000 $55.24 Marion 65,639 $11,841,000 $18.04 Portage 153,056 $40,279,000 $26.32 Monroe 15,141 $6,400,000 $42.27 Mercer 40,886 $15,651,000 $38.28 Richland 128,549 $13,726,000 $10.68 Morgan 14,961 $5,057,000 $33.80 Miami 99,329 $16,551,000 $16.66 Stark 378,098 $32,379,000 $8.56 Muskingum 84,783 $6,395,000 $7.54 Morrow 32,319 $14,686,000 $45.44 Summitt 542,899 $47,981,000 $8.84 Noble 14,052 $6,340,000 $45.12 Ottaw a 41,036 $21,667,000 $52.80 Trumbull 223,513 $42,459,000 $19.00 Perry 34,212 $6,130,000 $17.92 Paulding 20,163 $1,425,000 $7.07 Warren 168,229 $17,986,000 $10.69 Pike 27,982 $26,900,000 $96.13 Preble 42,344 $16,556,000 $39.10 Wayne 112,274 $17,534,000 $15.62 Ross 73,437 $22,016,000 $29.98

Putnam 34,741 $1,405,000 $4.04 TOTAL 7,719,842 $670,647,000 $8.69 Scioto 78,428 $26,351,000 $33.60 Sandusky 61,653 $21,837,000 $35.42 Tuscaraw as 91,521 $7,135,000 $7.80 Seneca 58,314 $18,071,000 $30.99 Vinton 12,953 $6,410,000 $49.49 Shelby 48,233 $1,375,000 $2.85 Washington 62,798 $11,165,000 $17.78

Van Wert 29,432 $1,401,000 $4.76 TOTAL 1,458,464 $339,953,006 $23.31Williams 39,200 $11,255,000 $28.71 Wood 121,680 $21,487,000 $17.66 Wyandot 22,956 $10,006,000 $43.59 Population Losses Per CapitaTOTAL 2,159,323 $470,780,000 $21.80 11,337,629 $1,481,380,006 $13.07

STATEWIDE TOTAL

Table 2.4.aEstimate of Potential Losses to Winter Storms by Region

Region 2

County 2001 Pop.10-Year Winter Storm Losses

Per-Capita Annual Winter Storm Losses

Region 1



Region 3




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The total 10-year winter storm loss for Region 1 is $470,780,000 which is the second highest in the state. Within the region, Darke County historically has had the highest 10-year loss at a total of $71,151,000 affecting approximately 53,178 people (see Table 2.4.a). Allen and Shelby counties have historically had the lowest 10-year loss at $1,375,000 in each county affecting 108,522 people in Allen County and 48,233 in Shelby County (see Table 2.4.a). Region 2 has the highest 10-year winter storm loss in the state at a total of $670,647,000. Within the region, Summit County has historically had the highest 10-year loss at a total of $47,981,000 affecting approximately 542,899 people (see Table 2.4.a). The second highest is Geauga County with a total loss of $47,743,000 affecting approximately 92,294 people (see Table 2.4.a). Richland County has historically had the lowest 10-year loss at $13,726,000 affecting 128,549 people (see Table 2.4.a). Region 3 has historically had the lowest 10-year winter storm loss. In total there has been a loss of $339,953,006, which has affected a population of approximately 1,458,464 persons. Brown County has had experienced the highest 10-year loss at a total of $27,860,000 affecting approximately 42,425 people (see Table 2.4.a). Jefferson County has had the least 10-year loss to winter storms at $335,000, which affected approximately 72,705 persons (see Table 2.4.a).

STATE-OWNED AND STATE-LEASED CRITICAL FACILITIES VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS & LOSS ESTIMATION

Methodology The methodology discussed above could not be used for state-owned and state-leased facilities as Ohio does not have attributed records of losses for each state-owned and leased facility. Additionally, winter storms are non-spatial in nature, which makes objective risk assessments difficult. Therefore, the methodology used here is based on state-owned and state-leased structure counts and dollars exposed within each snow depth level shown in Map 2.4.a. This information can help identify how many assets are at risk of experiencing high or moderately high snow amounts annually. Tables 2.4.b and 2.4.c show the results of the state facility counts in each depth area. Also, the risk assessment for state facilities involved the GIS analysis of HSIP Gold 2011 data, which included electric transmission lines and power substations. These power facilities play crucial roles in the functionality of most state facilities, and if they are compromised by weather, associated state facilities would be affected as well. Since the HSIP Gold 2011 data have some inconsistencies in attributes and geocoding, the analysis here is general. However, it provides useful information with regards to risk and state facilities necessary for response and recovery. Map 2.4.b depicts the areas of high concentrations of electric lines and substations.


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Results Table 2.4.b

State-Owned and State-Leased Facility Counts at Mean Annual Snow Depths

Mean Annual Snow Depth

State-Owned Critical Facilities

State-Owned Non-Critical Facilities

State-Leased Critical Facilities

State-Leased Non-Critical

Facilities <24" 716 818 11 100

24"-36" 1152 1007 13 116 36"-48" 316 150 4 41 48"-72" 148 97 2 9

>72" 11 42 0 1

Table 2.4.c

Dollars Exposed for State-Owned and State-Leased Facilities at Mean Annual Snow Depths

Mean Annual Snow Depth

State-Owned Critical Facilities

State-Owned Non-Critical Facilities

State-Leased Critical Facilities1

State-Leased Non-Critical Facilities1

<24" $802,660,700 $585,378,924 $2,484,137 $14,285,054 24"-36" $1,470,560,693 $749,952,455 $5,999,040 $29,731,843 36"-48" $446,389,712 $152,943,274 $47,048 $4,361,460 48"-72" $57,267,696 $64,400,353 $442,566 $1,246,672

>72" $2,080,475 $6,553,345 $0 $11,133 1The exposure for state-leased facilities is represented in the form of annual rental costs.

There are 53 state-owned facilities in the highest snow-depth region in the state (11 are critical), which represents over $8.5 million in exposure, nearly all of which are associated with the Department of Transportation or the Department of Natural Resources. However, transmission line and substation densities are relatively low in this area. The northwestern edge of the >72” region contains a few substations that could be at risk given a large winter storm event, but that density of substations is significantly less than those located in the 48”-72” region. There is only one state-leased facility in this area and it is non-critical to the state’s response and recovery efforts. The region characterized by 48”-72” of snow annually contains 245 (148 are critical facilities) state-owned facilities with an exposure of more than $121 million. Again, the majority of these structures are associated with the Departments of Transportation or Natural Resources. This region of moderately high snow depth represents one of the highest population densities in the state, which corresponds to the high density of transmission lines and substations. Losses in this region are relatively high each year (Table 2.4.a), and these losses could be expected with state facilities as well. Since it is the largest snow depth region in the state, it makes sense that nearly half of all state-owned and state-leased facilities are in the 24”-36” region. This also represents nearly half of the statewide exposure to winter storms. Since this is a low-to-moderate amount of snow per year, losses associated with winter storms should be much lower than those previously discussed. Electric line and substation densities correspond with this conclusion (Map 2.4.b).


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It should be noted that while this risk assessment evaluates general locations of electric transmission lines and substations, these facilities are rarely compromised by winter storms. However, they do indicate where to expect higher densities of lower voltage lines that supply power to various types of structures, including critical and non-critical facilities. It is this association that makes this analysis beneficial in assessing risk for a non-spatial hazard.


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Map 2.4.b

Documents

2.4 WINTER STORM - OhioLake Erie during the evening hours of November 23rd. An arctic cold front trailing this low swept east across Ohio by the early morning hours of the 24th. Cold