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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Monday, 24 November 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Direction Tgt.

DHBK 60.70 Flat 62.20

QIIK 86.70 Up 88.20

QSE Index

Price % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 13,754.89 -0.7 9.1

Resistance/Support (Daily)

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 14,800 14,000 14,350

Support 13,700 13,660 13,550

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The Index fell for another day and now it is below the upper part of the range. The MACD Histogram is showing weakness. If weakness persists, we may see the Index retreat to the 13,650 level. Resistance is increasing around the 13,800 level; a short term downtrend line is merging with the 50SMA and the resistance line (denoted with the dashed horizontal line). Thus, a break above the 13,800 signifies the return of bullish traders and may increase the chance to head to the 14,000 level. Expected Target: 14,000 Only if a persistent break above the 13,800 takes place. Suggested Stop-Loss: 13,700 A break below suggests dragging the Index to the 13,660 range.

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 23 Nov 14 20 Nov 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 599.5 798.8 -24.9

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 745.9 750.7 -0.6

Volume (mn) 7.9 11.9 -33.6

Number of Trans. 5,673 7,956 -28.7

Companies Traded 40 42 -4.8

Market Breadth 9:28 16:24 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 20,515.29 -0.7 56.6

All Share Index 3,491.19 -0.6 58.4

Banks 3,476.05 -0.8 63.2

Industrials 4,523.50 -0.5 51.1

Transportation 2,430.31 -0.1 60.3

Real Estate 2,789.48 -0.2 54.2

Insurance 4,105.04 -0.1 55.1

Telecoms 1,487.70 -1.3 39.3

Consumer 7,709.28 -0.8 74.8

Al Rayan Islamic 4,655.26 -0.9 59.1

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

WDAM 69.00 -1.4 71.4

MCGS 135.00 -1.5 70.6

QNBK 229.50 -0.9 70.5

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30Min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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DHBK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 60.70 0.17 372,364

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 61.00 62.20 63.40

Support 60.00 58.70 58.00

Commentary

Overview: The bank is at an important level as it bounced off the lower part of a symmetrical triangle. Currently, it is hitting the top part of the triangle. It is essential for a bullish move to take place once buyers kick in and break the QR61.00 price level upwards. The MACD and the RSI on the daily are looking more bullish. On the other hand, the candlesticks formed a tweezer top, which is considered to be a reversal sign to the previous move. The entry at this point is strongly dependent on the price action between the QR61.00 and the QR60.00. Expected Target: QR62.20 – QR63.40 A sustained break above the QR61.00 for at least an hour with higher volumes is required before a buying position is initiated. Suggested Stop-Loss: QR60.00 A break below this level proves strength of the triangle’s boundaries. As a result, the price could retreat down to the QR58.00 level.

DHBK (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

DHBK (Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QIIK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 86.70 -1.25 147,637

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 88.20 90.00 95.40

Support 85.00 84.40 81.00

Commentary

Overview: The Shari’a compliant bank is still in an uptrend over the medium term. The price bounced off the mentioned trend line. Over the past two sessions, the name dropped but buyers are striving to keep the share afloat above the QR85.00. The RSI and the MACD on the hourly chart are suggesting a price take-off from these levels. In addition, the price stabilized above the 50 and the 100 SMAs. Moreover, the price has previously maintained its level above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Expected Target: QR88.20 A break above the QR86.70 with sustained volumes will trigger the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss: QR85.00 A drop below this level could drag the price below the uptrend line which is a bearish reversal signal.

QIIK (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QIIK (Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 13,754.89 13,657.54 13,705.43 13,735.01 13,782.89 13,830.78 13,860.36 13,908.24 13,730.04 13,273.09 12,635.70

Total Return 20,515.29 20,370.10 20,441.52 20,485.64 20,557.06 20,628.48 20,672.60 20,744.02 20,478.22 19,796.22 18,704.59

All Share 3,491.19 3,466.48 3,477.94 3,485.02 3,496.49 3,507.95 3,515.03 3,526.50 3,470.45 3,357.11 3,195.69

Al Rayan Islamic 4,655.26 4,610.08 4,633.06 4,647.26 4,670.24 4,693.22 4,707.42 4,730.40 4,661.11 4,483.63 4,096.10

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 50.00 49.33 49.68 49.89 50.23 50.58 50.79 51.13 54.98 54.21 48.32

CBQK 74.90 73.17 73.85 74.28 74.97 75.65 76.08 76.77 71.37 69.05 66.85

DHBK 60.70 59.70 60.04 60.26 60.60 60.94 61.16 61.50 60.06 59.23 61.27

QIBK 108.00 106.33 107.17 107.69 108.53 109.37 109.89 110.73 115.97 107.64 94.39

QIIK 86.70 85.17 85.63 85.91 86.37 86.83 87.11 87.57 88.56 85.96 81.50

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 135.00 129.07 130.94 132.09 133.97 135.84 136.99 138.87 129.47 111.71 91.13 Industrials

IQCD 194.60 192.87 193.63 194.10 194.87 195.63 196.10 196.87 189.77 183.34 183.55

QEWS 192.50 190.03 190.84 191.33 192.13 192.94 193.43 194.23 187.81 186.50 181.17

GISS 120.70 118.37 119.28 119.85 120.77 121.68 122.25 123.17 120.98 111.94 95.19

QIGD 46.30 46.03 46.19 46.28 46.43 46.59 46.68 46.83 56.91 57.11 56.10 Real Estate

BRES 51.30 50.37 50.90 51.23 51.77 52.30 52.63 53.17 41.10 40.79 37.99

UDCD 27.95 27.25 27.52 27.68 27.95 28.22 28.38 28.65 28.81 27.53 25.13

ERES 18.90 18.57 18.68 18.75 18.87 18.98 19.05 19.17 19.50 20.59 21.27

MRDS 23.11 22.82 22.98 23.07 23.22 23.38 23.47 23.62 23.99 21.43 18.54 Telecommunication

ORDS 119.00 117.47 118.12 118.52 119.17 119.82 120.22 120.87 129.14 131.94 139.07

VFQS 18.80 18.48 18.61 18.69 18.82 18.95 19.03 19.16 21.16 20.27 17.20 Transportation

QGTS 24.29 23.89 24.02 24.09 24.22 24.35 24.42 24.55 24.32 23.80 22.91

QNNS 102.00 100.67 101.05 101.28 101.67 102.05 102.28 102.67 95.55 94.35 94.18 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.