22nd PACTS Westminster Lecture30th November 2011

Dr Jillian Anable Centre for Transport Research University of Aberdeen(j.anable@abdn.ac.uk)

More haste, less speed: changing behaviour for safety and

sustainability

This lecture will suggest reasons why…

…the mere proposition of increasing motorway speed limits exemplifies the tendency for UK transport policy to ignore some of the most robust evidence on ‘what works’ to achieve its objectives. This includes evidence about public acceptability, human nature and the ‘attitude -behaviour’ relationship, not to mention evidence on the likely detrimental impacts on safety, the environment and the economy.

J. Anable, November 2011

A three-legged race…

1. He said what?!! Recent pronouncements on speed limits in the UK

2. The pivotal role of speed control in transport policy

3. Why and how to bring the road safety and sustainability agendas together

The proposal: Philip Hammond:

“Increasing the speed limit on motorways from 70 to 80 miles per hour for cars, light vans and motorcycles could provide hundreds of millions of pounds of benefits for the economy and I will put forward formal proposals for making these changes later this year.”

(DfT Press Release, 3/10/11)

Justine Greening: “It is quite right’ to look at whether it is appropriate to raise that. We spend an awful lot of time talking about congestion, but it is important to say that we have motorways so let’s make sure people can travel from A to B along them as fast as possible.”

(House of Commons Transport Select Committee, 19/10/11)

Their justification

Vehicles (and roads) have got safer since the current speed limit was set in 1965

Safety is not the only consideration – there are hundreds of millions of pounds per year to be had from savings in travel time

As 49% of motorists break the speed limit – it would ‘restore moral legitimacy of the system’

(DfT Press Release, 3/10/11)

Speeding on UK motorways

Slower growth/ reduction in traffic

1% of road length but 20% of car

miles

Recent trends – ‘peak car’?

Turning point ca. 1992 and recent downturn preceded the recession

Also signs that the trend in ‘sustainable’ modes is starting to reverse

Source: Goodwin,P. (2011) based on UK National Travel Survey

Trips pp/yr

Miles pp/yr

Peak Car – Global Trend

Source: Millard-Ball, Adam and Schipper, Lee(2011) 'Are We Reaching Peak Travel? Trends in Passenger Transport in Eight Industrialized Countries', Transport Reviews, 31: 3, 357 — 378,

Changing attitudes? Changing norms?

“… our attitudes have only really started to change in the last few years. Two years ago, the number of motorists saying they’d find it difficult to adjust their lifestyle to not having a car stood at 87%; in 2007 it fell to 81% and this year it’s down to 73%. Which means one in six motorists who, just two years ago, said they’d find it very difficult to adjust no longer say that.”

“Compared with 20 years ago, the proportion of us who drive more than 12,000 miles a year has fallen from 26% to 15%...All this points towards a slow, subtle but still fundamental shift in our car-dependency.”

RAC (2008) RAC Report on Motoring. Report 1

Back to motorway speed limits: the potential to save carbon

4-wheeled vehicles on 70 mph roads = 41% road transport CO2 & 8% of all CO2

All UK emissions: 156.1 MtC

Total road transport:

33 MtC (21%)

4 wheeled vehicles on

70mph roads: 13.2 MtC (8%) Ca. 50% of

cars exceed the speed limit on motorways

UKERC modelling: assumptions Motorways and dual carriageways - all 4- wheeled

vehicles Traffic growth figures based on NTM midpoint

projections for interurban roads to 2010 No knock-on savings in demand or car purchasing Average emissions coefficients reflecting:

(i) fleet technology mix for each year

(ii) relevant speed distribution (2004 data) All distance previously driven above 70mph or 60mph

redistributed to highest remaining band

Anable, J. & Brand, C. (2011) UKERC Policy Brief: Speed limits and carbon emissions

Motorway speed limits - model setup

Anable, J. & Brand, C. (2011) UKERC Policy Brief: Speed limits and carbon emissions

Motorway speed limits - key results

Life-cycle carbon in 2020

113kph (70mph)

130kph (80mph)

100kph (62mph)

change vs REF(MtCO2e pa)

-1.3 +1.3 -2.7

change vs REF*(% over total)

-0.9%+0.7

%-2.1%

*Current emissions from passenger cars in the UK = 70 MtCO2 per annum (DECC 2010)

Anable, J. & Brand, C. (2011) UKERC Policy Brief: Speed limits and carbon emissions

Enforcing 70 mph could provide 11% extra carbon savings from transport in 2020

Saving Oil in a hurry US: speed reduction policy during 1970s oil

crisis UK: ‘natural’ reduction in average speeds

during 2000 ‘fuel protests’ IEA: ‘large’ and rapid oil savings in times of

emergency (IEA (2005) Saving Oil in a Hurry)

When do we claim ourselves to be in the middle of a fuel crisis?

Additional carbon savings?1. Reduction in traffic growth

Invariant travel-time budgets

SACTRA: travel speeds affect the amount of traffic – increased speed = extra traffic

2. Maximising capacity by improving traffic flow Lower differential, smoother driving, fewer crashes and disruption

3. Rationalising car design Capping speeds – a ‘system boundary’

Set the context for lighter, less powerful, more efficient vehicles

Speed enforcement – encourage voluntary uptake of speed limiters

Other benefits Early win / certainty – no technological innovation

required Safety benefits – reduction of deaths on

motorways Cost effectiveness – immediate carbon savings

are cheaper = net benefit to society Equity – reduce the differential between the fast

and the slow, the rich and the poor

A systems approach

ReduceCO2

ReduceCASUALTIES

REDUCESPEED

RationaliseCar Market

ReduceTraffic

Demand

ImproveTraffic Flow

Anable, J., Mitchell, P. and Layberry, R. (2006) Getting the genie back in the bottle. LowCVP Road Transport Challenge, June 2006

2. The pivotal role of speed control

Speed control – why so pivotal?Speed control epitomises the lack of:

a.Support for regulatory interventions

b.Understanding about attitudes and their role

c.Acceptance of human nature

d.Attention to evidence in policy making

+ Ability to adopt ‘bind’ multiple aims together

(a) De-regulation and nudging

“There has been the assumption that central government can only change people’s behaviour through rules and regulations. Our government will be a much smarter one, shunning the bureaucratic levers of the past and finding intelligent ways to encourage, support and enable people to make better choices for themselves.”

(Cabinet Office (May 2010) The Coalition: our programme for Government)

What do we mean by behaviour change? A “behaviour change” intervention is a

coordinated set of activities designed to change specified behaviour patterns

Therefore all policies are behaviour change policies

But, “behaviour change” is very much used as a shorthand for alternatives to regulation and fiscal measures

Travel behaviour change is not just about mode switch Purchasing - which cars are

bought Driving - how cars are driven Use - how much cars are driven

Mode choice Car occupancy Timing Route choice Frequency Trip-chaining Destinations / distance Parking Residential location choice Work location choice Substitution (eg with ICT)

25

What is a nudge?

“Any aspect of the choice architecture that alters people’s behaviour in a predictable way without forbidding any options or significantly changing their economic incentives.”

“To count as a mere nudge, the intervention must be easy and cheap to avoid. Nudges are not mandates.”

Thaler and Sunstein (2008)

Persuasion and education is not ‘nudge’ Not all non-regulatory measures are nudges:

Nudges prompt choices without conscious deliberation – therefore media campaigns/ education and persuasion is not ‘nudge’

But, the nudge ethos could be used to deliver education and training

Nudge’s themselves may be provided through regulatory means:E.g. regulation to require car manufacturers to put

CO2 information on car advertisements

Types of policy

These are nudges …

These aren’t...

Has nudging worked in travel demand management? Only as part of mixed packages of

interventions Smarter choices – encompass nudging but

are not synonymous with it ...

Techniques to Encourage sustainable

travel choices + Engage with people about their travel choices + Enable these choices + Exemplify through political and social advocacy Individual + community level More psychology than engineering But they involve promotion and provision as well as

regulatory and fiscal measures

Therefore – they are not synonymous with NUDGE

What are Smarter Choices?

E.gs: Travel planning (workplace, schools, residential, leisure); car sharing; tele/ videoconferencing; individualised marketing; branding and promotion; car clubs; cycle training.

Sustainable Travel Towns2004 – 2009: £10m from DfT + £5m from each town•Darlington £4.4m•Worcester £4.4•Peterborough £6.8m= £10 per head