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2/10/03 F.Marks 1
Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rain Forecasting Tool
Frank D. MarksNOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL 33149
QPE Techniques in TCs• TRMM and gauges
QPF Techniques in TCs• R-CLIPER• 2002 Storms• Where do we go from here?
Support from NOAA JHT and NASA TRMM and CAMEX
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DATA: TMI R estimates for 245 storms (December
1997-2000), globally, yielding 2121 events, from TD to CAT5 (Lonfat et al 2003).
1998-2000 TMI events by IntensityStorm Intensity Events %TD/TS 1361 64Category 1-2 548 26Category 3-5 212 10Total 2121
560,000 hourly gauge estimates in 46 US landfalling hurricanes (1948-2000) (DeMaria 2003)
QPE techniques in TCs:
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Develop R-CLIPER from gauge and TMI climatology for operational and model QPF comparisons.
Project R-climatology along NHC forecast track.
QPF techniques in TCs:
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R-CLIPER Radial distribution of R for gauge and TMI
climatology consistent. TMI peak R increases with intensity: 3 mm h-1
TD/TS; 7.2 mm h-1 CAT 1-2; 12.5 mm h-1 CAT 3-5. TMI peak R radius decreases with storm intensity.
2/10/03 F.Marks 6
color contours denote
Rtotal (inches, peak at landfall listed)
Position and
intensity from best track (6
h)
R-CLIPER Cases
7.7”
4.8” 15.9”
4.1” 8.6”
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Andrew 92
Danny 97
Floyd 99
Allison 01
R-CLIPER underestimates area of Rtotal by factor of 2 using CDF.
R-CLIPER Cases
20%
50%
90%
PMM R-CLIPER/Gauge Rtotal
50%
90%
% of gauges
% of area
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QPF in Landfalling TCs For 2002 season ran 584 forecasts in 32
storms in the ATL, EPAC, and CPAC for both the gauge and TRMM R-CLIPER.
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
summary
ATLEPACCPAC
Nu
mb
er
of
Fo
rec
as
ts
Storm
Atlantic 14 255
East Pacific 15 281
Central Pacific
3 48
Total 32 584
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QPF in Landfalling TCs
GaugeTRMM
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Where do we go from here?
R-CLIPER ran operationally in 2002 at NHC.
Provides benchmark for evaluation of other QPF techniques.
Develop data products for hurricane specialists.
Compare R-CLIPER forecasts to models and 6-h average rainfall amounts on HPC 1°X1° grid.
Work with HPC to provide track guidance after landfall.
RCLIPER
RCLIPER Rmax along track, with a probability of heavy rain right or left of track.
RCLIPER Rmax increases when storm slows or turns.
Model shows symmetry and asymmetry.
Comparison with Models Rogers et al 2002
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QPF in Landfalling TCsISSUES: Are we providing our users what they need?
Different users have different needs. How do we develop an evaluation/validation
system for high-resolution QPF product?How will it be used operationally
(probabilistic)?NEEDS: New products developed for forecasters and
hydrologists. New display products to convey uncertainty to
forecaster and others.
