21 November 2017 Markets Research DB Today - Global ...pg.jrj.com.cn/.../5bdb7577-ad82-4624-9157-08e414ca9eb5.pdfreaction to political shocks has often been over before you can digest

21 November 2017

DB Today - Global/Macro

Periodical

Global Strategy


Date21 November 2017

Deutsche Bank GroupMarkets Research

Tuesday, 21st November 2017

MACRO HIGHLIGHTS

Europe - Data Flash - Dieter BraeuningerLast night the FDP unexpectedly retreated from the exploratory talks on theformation of a Jamaica coalition and it is unlikely that the Liberals will comeback. Party leader Lindner blamed the CDU/SCU and the Greens for theirunwillingness to markedly modernize Germany, the Liberal’s key request in theelection campaign.

Credit Strategy - Early Morning Reid - Jim ReidThere wasn't much contagion yesterday after the surprise collapse in Germancoalition talks late on Sunday night. Over the last couple of years negative marketreaction to political shocks has often been over before you can digest it fully.Examples being the Greek and Brexit referendums and the Trump election results.Although the German coalition talks collapsing is much lower key than theseevents, it was still interesting that the DAX was only negative for 1 hour 16minsand that the Euro had snapped back into positive territory 37 minutes earlier evenif it did soften again as the day progressed closing -0.49% against the dollar. TheDAX closed +0.50% (high to low had been as much as +1.23%) and the Stoxx600 +0.67% (range 0.91%)..

Figure 1: Table of ContentsMacro Highlights Page 01

Key Additional Research Page 02

Today's Headlines Page 05

Tables

Forecast G7 Quarterly GDP growth Page 06

Commodities Page 06

Govt. Bond Yield Page 06

Foreign Exchange Rates Page 07

Central Bank Policy Page 07

Index Forecasts Page 07

Upcoming Conf./Trips/Events Page 07

Source: Deutsche Bank

FX Strategy - FX Daily - Robin WinklerNegotiations over a ‘Jamaica’ coalition in Germany broke down last night asthe FDP pulled out, stating that "no government is better than the wronggovernment". There are now three possible outcomes. First, Merkel could try toform a minority government. German media have reported that the FDP mightbe willing to support a minority government between CDU/CSU and the Greens.Merkel could also try to seek the Greens' support for a coalition with the FDP.Some commentators have even suggested that the CDU/ CSU could form aminority government on their own and rely on support from the other establishedparties on a policy-by-policy basis. But the lack of historical precedent and voters'preference for a stable government with a clearly defined opposition makes thisa risky and costly option for all parties involved

Amy Tan

Equity Focus

+1-212-250-5574

Mark Braley, ACA

Research Analyst

+44-20-754-59904

Mairead Smith

Equity Focus

+44-20-754-71054

Tim Pierotti

Equity Focus

+1-212-250 8143

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should considerthis report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONSARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. THE CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLE ’ SREPUBLIC OF CHINA (“THE PRC”) (EXCEPT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OFPRC), EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAU.

Distributed on: 21/11/2017 10:03:07 GMT

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21 November 2017


Figure 2: Global Market IndexINDEX Close 1D % Chg YTD %Chg

S&P 500 2582.14 0.13 15.33

NASDAQ 6790.71 0.12 26.15

DOW 23430.33 0.31 18.56

DJ STOXX 50 3554.47 -0.20 8.02

FTSE 100 INDEX 7374.72 -0.20 3.25

HANG SENG INDEX 29818.07 1.91 35.53

MSCI Asia ex Japan 705.84 -0.01 37.23

BRAZIL BOVESPA 73437.28 1.28 21.93

RTS-2 INDEX 1550.49 -0.17 17.97


Figure 3: Commodity PricesCOMMODITIES Close 1D % Chg YTD %Chg

West Texas 56.09 -0.81 4.41

Brent 62.34 0.60 12.51

CRB 189.21 -0.62 -1.72

Copper 309.05 -0.08 23.35

Gold (Spot) 1280.32 0.27 11.11

Alum. (LME) 2086.00 -0.86 23.21

Baltic Dry 1385.00 1.02 44.12


Figure 4: Foreign Exchange PricesFOREX (vs US$) Close 1D % Chg YTD %Chg

HK$ 7.81 0.00 -0.70

EUR 1.18 0.14 11.69

JPY 112.52 0.09 3.95

GBP 1.33 0.16 7.42


Figure 5: DerivativesCurrent Value %-ile Rank

SPX 3M Mat ATM-Strike Imp Vol 10.54 46.83

SPX 3M Mat 90%-110% IV Skew 9.27 86.11

SPX 3M Mat Realized Vol 6.30 2.69


Figure 6: CreditCredit Close 1D % Chg YTD %Chg

CDX.NA.IG 54.73 0.00 -19.03

ITRX.Europe 50.47 -0.60 -30.25

CDX.NA.HY 107.56 0.00 1.29

ITRAX.XOVER 243.93 -0.01 -15.25


FX Strategy - FX Daily - Dieter BraeuningerLast night the FDP unexpectedly retreated from the exploratory talks on theformation of a Jamaica coalition and it is unlikely that the Liberals will comeback. Party leader Lindner blamed the CDU/SCU and the Greens for theirunwillingness to markedly modernize Germany, the Liberal’s key request in theelection campaign.

FX Strategy - FX Daily - Gautam KalaniIn our monthly FX Valuation Snapshot, we provide the results for EM andG10 currencies on our fundamental valuation models (the traditional trade-based models as well as our new capital-based valuation framework). Valuationsare provided both on a trade-weighted basis and versus the dollar. However,in this report we focus specifically on valuations of G10 and EM crosses,which are computed by ‘crossing out’ the USD from our calculated USD-crossmisalignments. This enables us to identify extreme valuation misalignmentsin crosses, which often go under the radar given the focus on USD-crossmisalignments, but can yield interesting investment opportunities. We presentthe ‘cross’ valuations on the trade-based framework and on the weighted capitaland trade approach.

KEY ADDITIONAL RESEARCH

ASIA

Ping An (2318.HK),HKD79.2 Buy Price Target HKD106.1Esther Chwei: Tgt HKD76.90 to HKD106.10. Last Close: HKD78.85, Buy. Wecame away from Ping An’s open day more positive on the company’s competitivepositioning, enhanced by its tech initiatives. The most interesting aspect forus was its Finance OneConnect initiatives, which, if successful, could helpthe company transition from its traditional capital-intensive businesses (i.e.insurance, banks) to a capital-light financial platform (through the export of itstechnologies to small and medium-sized banks and insurers). We raise our targetprice by 38% to HK$106.1 and reiterate Ping An as our top pick.

FITT RESEARCH: ASEAN STRATEGY - ASEAN: The infrastructure pushJeffrey Ng : US$275bn will be invested in the next decade to improve ASEANinfrastructure, as leaders aim to resolve the bottlenecks in the less developedeconomies and Singapore equips itself for a further 25% increase in populationThis report details the challenges and beneficiaries on a country by country basis,while future reports will examine the geopolitical context, the increasing role ofChina in ASEAN, funding/fiscal issues and the execution of plans amid shiftingdomestic political landscapes.

JAPAN

Kusuri no AOKI HD (3549.T),JPY7050 Buy Price Target JPY8000T akahiro Kazahaya: Initiate with Buy, tgt JPY8,000. Last Close: JPY6,750.Weinitiate coverage of Kusuri No Aoki HD, a drugstore major that operatesstandard 300-tsubo stores designed for small catchment areas with a strong foodline-up and larger 450-tsubo stores that also sell fresh produce, both under theKusuri No Aoki name. We anticipate continuing earnings growth as we see ittaking market share from rivals that operate small stores with a limited productselection. We forecast a sales rise from ¥188.7bn in FY5/17 to ¥297.6bn in FY5/20and OP from ¥10.7bn to ¥16bn, marking a 13% CAGR. We assign a Buy ratingwith valuation attractive in our view.

SOUTH AFRICA

Page 2 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

21 November 2017


Pioneer (PFGJ.J),ZAR115.99 Hold Price Target ZAR125Caron Bramwell : Buy to Hold , Tgt ZAR130 to ZAR125.Last Close ZAR118.03.FY17 revenue declined -5%, driven by flat prices and volume declines of -5%.Adjusted EBIT margins contracted by 4.5% to 6.5% impacted by a number ofone-off factors including 1) PFG's maize hedge, 2) a conversion of raisin inputcosts and selling prices fully eroding category profits and 3) significant input costpressure in fruit juice post the global El Nino phenomenon. Adj HEPS declined50% to R4.42, at the lower end of management's pre-guided range. We expectfurther downward earnings revisions to come through over the next few months,downgrade to Hold.

EUROPE

SuperGroup (SGP.L),GBp1954 Hold Price Target GBp1990Jaina Mistry: Initiate with Hold, tgt 1990p, Last Close 1945p. Margin gainsand sales growth seem priced in. Initiate with a Hold. SuperGroup trades underthe Superdry fashion brand. Its share price is now at all-time highs and hasbeen driven by confidence around margin accretion. We identify key self-helpopportunities and find areas of brand strength in the UK from our proprietaryconsumer survey. However, we remain cautious on growth in the USA and China,and the group's store economics. SuperGroup trades at a 8% premium to its 5-year PE average and margin, and growth opportunities appear priced in. Hold.

British American Tobacco (BATS.L),GBp5002 Buy Price Target GBp6000Gerry Gallagher : Last Close 4983p , Buy. Growing (or even retaining) an EVmultiple over time combined with strong organic growth and debt pay-downprovides a compelling investment case. The argument against? Returns fade andthe multiple contracts. Tobacco serially compounds for a reason; the returns don'tfade. With mis-placed FDA concerns currently undermining BAT's valuation webelieve BAT's 1-yr forward EV multiple can rise to 13.7x from its current 12.4x.Modelling relatively strong EBITDA growth, we believe 50% TSR is achievableover two years. Because of the 'maths' of EV multiples, EBITDA growth anddebt pay-down, only 15% of that comes from an 'underlying' re-rating of theoperations. BUY.http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/372-5B8C/29784631/0900b8c08ddadc78.pdf

NORTH AMERICA

CHINA MACRO - Risks to watch in next 6 months, part IIZhiwei Zhang: We highlighted the rising macro risks in last week's note. Sincethen we noticed new signs of tightening in fiscal and monetary policies. On thefiscal front, the Ministry of Finance issued a document on 16 Nov to tightencontrol over public private partnership (PPP) projects. To control the potentialfiscal burden, the government will cancel some PPP projects that do not meet itsrequirements. Moreover, the government will likely revise a guideline on subwayprojects soon, according to a major Chinese news agency Caixin. The Rmb30bnsubway project in the city of Baotou has been called off by the central governmentafter 3 months of construction. Caixin reported that the guideline will likelybecome tougher, to prevent subway projects to be built in cities with inadequatepopulation and poor fiscal condition.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 3

21 November 2017


Wynn Resorts(WYNN.OQ),USD156.96 Buy Price Target USD167Carlo Santarelli: Last Close USD156.96 , Buy. We recently hosted managementfor a round of investor meetings in NYC. Overall, we felt the tone of the meetingswas constructive and investor interest was strong. With continued strengthin Macau fundamentals, we weren't surprised that investor interest focusedprimarily on; 1) the ramp at Palace, 2) development activity in LV, Boston, & Japan,& 3) broader strategic initiatives. Net-net, our favorable view remains firm as webelieve the following merits propel momentum in shares: 1) continued strengthin the VIP / premium segments, 2) Macau share gains, 3) WML's ability to returncapital, & 4) longer term unit growth opportunities. We reaffirm our Buy.


21 November 2017


TODAY’S HEADLINES

Markets: European & US equities rise despite collapse of German coalition talks,US bond yields and US dollar slightly firmer, crude falls but industrial metalsstronger.

USA: Conference Board leading index up 1.2% in October, above mkt.

USA: Fed's Yellen says will leave the Fed once successor as Chair is sworn in.

EMU: ECB's Draghi says confident that wages growth will pick up as jobs markettightens.

DEU: Angela Merkel says new elections would be better than a minoritygovernment.

DEU: PPI rises 0.3%mom/2.7%yoy in October, at mkt.

JPN: Trade surplus widens JPY56.3bn to JPY322.9bn in October, above mkt.

NZL: BNZ-Business NZ services index down 0.3pts to 55.6 in October

The Day Ahead...USA: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct), Existing home sales (Oct); CAN:Wholesale trade sales (Sep); EMU: ECB's Coeure, Riksbank's Jochnick speaks;UK: PSNB finance (Oct), CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Nov); ESP: Trade balance(Sep); CHE: Trade balance (Oct); M3 (Oct); BEL: Consumer confidence index(Nov); JPN: All industry activity index (Sep), Supermarket sales (Oct), Nationwidedepartment storesales (Oct); AUS: RBA Board meeting minutes, RBA's Lowespeaks.

Source: Extract from DB Daily published on 21 Nov 2017


21 November 2017


Figure 7: Forecast G7 Quarterly GDP growth% qoq saar/annual: % yoy Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17F Q2 17F Q3 17F Q4 17F 2016 2017F 2018F

US 0.80 1.40 3.50 2.10 1.20 3.50 3.00 2.80 1.60 2.40 2.60

Japan 2.50 1.60 1.00 1.40 1.00 0.60 1.70 1.40 1.00 1.40 0.80

Euroland 2.10 1.40 1.80 2.10 2.30 1.90 1.70 1.30 1.70 1.80 1.60

Germany 2.90 1.90 0.70 1.70 2.40 1.60 1.60 2.20 1.90 1.30 1.50

France 2.40 -0.30 0.70 1.90 1.80 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.10 1.40 1.60

Italy 1.40 0.50 1.20 1.40 1.80 1.40 1.40 1.30 0.90 1.00 1.00

UK 0.60 2.40 2.00 2.70 0.70 0.80 1.20 1.20 1.80 1.60 1.20

Canada 2.80 -1.40 4.20 2.60 3.70 2.30 2.00 2.10 1.50 2.30 2.20

G7 1.50 1.30 2.40 2.00 1.40 2.40 2.40 2.10 1.50 1.90 2.00

Source: (a) Euro Area and the Big 4 forecasts are as of 12/05/2017. All smaller euro area country forecasts are as of 12/05/2017. Blue figures signal upward revisions. Blue, underlined figures signal downward revisions.(b) Annual German GDP are not adjusted for working days). (c) HICP figures for euro-area countries/UK (d) Current account figures for euro area countries include intra regional transactions. (e) The regional aggregateshave been calculated based on the IMF weights released in October 2016. (f) Financial year forecast for fiscal balance. Source: Haver Analytics, National authorities, Deutsche Bank ResearchData updated from Global Economics Perspective note published on 12 June 2017

Figure 8: Commodities: Energy Commodities & Precious Metals Price Forecasts

USD 2016 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

WTI (bbl) 43.40 51.80 48.10 48.20 51.00 49.80 51.30 53.00 55.00 57.00

Brent (bbl) 45.10 54.60 50.80 52.20 56.00 53.40 54.50 56.00 58.00 60.00

US Natural Gas (mmBtu) 2.98 3.14 2.95 3.00 3.00 3.02 3.00 3.10 3.25 3.35

Gold 1249.00 1219.00 1260.00 1270.00 1250.00 1250.00 1240.00 1266.00 1305.00 1344.00

Silver 17.10 17.40 16.80 17.50 17.10 17.20 17.60 19.00 20.00 21.00

Aluminium

USc/lb 72.80 84.10 86.40 91.10 97.00 89.80 94.30 92.00 90.00 90.00

USD/t 1604.00 1853.00 1913.00 2008.00 2138.00 1978.00 2078.00 2028.00 1984.00 1984.00

Copper

USc/lb 220.80 264.90 257.10 287.90 294.90 276.80 297.20 315.30 350.00 342.50

USD/t 4867.00 5838.00 5692.00 6368.00 6500.00 6100.00 6550.00 6950.00 7715.00 7549.00

Source: Deutsche Bank, Figures are period averagesData updated from Commodities Quarterly note published on 22 June 2017

Figure 9: Govt. Bond Yield

Current Q4-17F Q4-18F Q4-19F

US 10Y yield 2.37 2.75 2.96 2.96

EUR 10Y yield 0.42 0.6 n/a n/a

Source: The House View published on 18 September 2017 Finance L.P.


21 November 2017


Figure 10: Forecast Foreign Exchange Rates

Countries Current Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Current Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18

United States - - - - 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.20

Japan 112.00 116.00 118.00 120.00 132.00 136.00 138.00 144.00

Euroland 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.83 - - -

United Kingdom 0.76 0.74 0.78 0.78 0.89 0.87 0.91 0.93

Switzerland 0.99 1.00 1.03 1.04 1.17 1.17 1.20 1.25

Canada 1.28 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.52 1.52 1.52 1.56

China 6.63 6.90 7.00 7.10 7.81 8.07 8.19 8.52

India 65.00 66.00 66.00 66.00 77.00 77.00 77.00 79.00

Vs US Dollar vs. Euro

Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, Datastream.Data last updated form 'Macro Forecasts' report published on 21 Nov 2017Current rates taken from Bloomberg Finance LP

Figure 11: Central Bank Policy (%)

Current Q4-17F Q4-18F Q4-19F

US 1.13 1.38 2.13 3.13

Eurozone 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.50

Japan -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10

UK 0.25 0.50 0.50 0.50

China 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

Source: The House View published on 18 September 2017

Figure 12: Index Forecasts

Current* Q4-17F

DJ Stoxx 600 384.93 375

FTSE 100 7386.94 NA

Dax 600 13047.22 NA

MSCI AC World 496.74 NA

S&P 500 2585.64 2600

Source: The House View published on 18 September 2017*Current Rates taken from Bloomberg Finance LP

Figure 13: Upcoming Conference/Trips/EventsDate Conferences Location

28-Nov-17 dbAccess Business Services, Leisure and Transport Conference London

29-Nov-17 dbAccess Taiwan Technology Supply Chain Corporate Day Taiwan

Source: Deutsche Bank For more details log on to www.conferences.db.com


21 November 2017


Appendix 1

Important Disclosures

*Other information available upon request

*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced fromlocal exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg, and other vendors. Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subjectcompanies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other thanthe primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosurelook-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr. Aside from within this report,important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm/db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal"tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition,the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendationor view in this report. Amy Tan, Mark Braley, Mairead Smith, Tim Pierotti

Equity Rating Key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holderreturn (TSR = percentage change in share price from currentprice to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) ,we recommend that investors buy the stock.Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holderreturn, we recommend that investors sell the stock.Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and,based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buyor Sell.

Newly issued research recommendations and target pricessupersede previously published research.


21 November 2017


Additional Information

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It may also engage in transactions, for itsown account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others withinDeutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those takenin this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linkedanalysis, quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differfrom recommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, perspectivesor otherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates may also be holding debt or equity securities of the issuers it writeson. 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This report is provided for informational purposes only and doesnot take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. It is not anoffer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy.Target prices are inherently imprecise and a product of the analyst ’ s judgment. The financial instruments discussedin this report may not be suitable for all investors, and investors must make their own informed investment decisions.Prices and availability of financial instruments are subject to change without notice, and investment transactions can leadto losses as a result of price fluctuations and other factors. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency otherthan an investor's currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is notnecessarily indicative of future results. Performance calculations exclude transaction costs, unless otherwise indicated.Unless otherwise indicated, prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is also sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, andother parties.??The Deutsche Bank Research Department is independent of other business divisions of the Bank. Details regardingorganizational arrangements and information barriers we have established to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest withrespect to our research are available on our website under Disclaimer, found on the Legal tab.??


21 November 2017


Macroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments that promiseto pay fixed or variable interest rates. For an investor who is long fixed-rate instruments (thus receiving these cashflows), increases in interest rates naturally lift the discount factors applied to the expected cash flows and thuscause a loss. The longer the maturity of a certain cash flow and the higher the move in the discount factor, thehigher will be the loss. Upside surprises in inflation, fiscal funding needs, and FX depreciation rates are among themost common adverse macroeconomic shocks to receivers. But counterparty exposure, issuer creditworthiness, clientsegmentation, regulation (including changes in assets holding limits for different types of investors), changes in taxpolicies, currency convertibility (which may constrain currency conversion, repatriation of profits and/or liquidation ofpositions), and settlement issues related to local clearing houses are also important risk factors. The sensitivity of fixed-income instruments to macroeconomic shocks may be mitigated by indexing the contracted cash flows to inflation, toFX depreciation, or to specified interest rates – these are common in emerging markets. The index fixings may – byconstruction – lag or mis-measure the actual move in the underlying variables they are intended to track. The choice ofthe proper fixing (or metric) is particularly important in swaps markets, where floating coupon rates (i.e., coupons indexedto a typically short-dated interest rate reference index) are exchanged for fixed coupons. Funding in a currency that differsfrom the currency in which coupons are denominated carries FX risk. Options on swaps (swaptions) the risks typical tooptions in addition to the risks related to rates movements.??Derivative transactions involve numerous risks including market, counterparty default and illiquidity risk. Theappropriateness of these products for use by investors depends on the investors' own circumstances, including theirtax position, their regulatory environment and the nature of their other assets and liabilities; as such, investors shouldtake expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar to or inspired by the contents of thispublication. The risk of loss in futures trading and options, foreign or domestic, can be substantial. As a result of thehigh degree of leverage obtainable in futures and options trading, losses may be incurred that are greater than theamount of funds initially deposited – up to theoretically unlimited losses. Trading in options involves risk and is notsuitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, investors must review the "Characteristics and Risks ofStandardized Options”, at http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. If you are unable toaccess the website, please contact your Deutsche Bank representative for a copy of this important document.??Participants in foreign exchange transactions may incur risks arising from several factors, including: (i) exchange rates canbe volatile and are subject to large fluctuations; (ii) the value of currencies may be affected by numerous market factors,including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equity and debt markets and changes ininterest rates; and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government-imposed exchange controls, which couldaffect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are affected by the currency of anunderlying security, effectively assume currency risk.??Deutsche Bank is not acting as a financial adviser, consultant or fiduciary to you or any of your agents with respect toany information provided in this report. Deutsche Bank does not provide investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, andis not acting as an impartial adviser. Information contained herein is being provided on the basis that the recipient willmake an independent assessment of the merits of any investment decision, and is not meant for retirement accounts orfor any specific person or account type. The information we provide is directed only to persons we believe to be financiallysophisticated, who are capable of evaluating investment risks independently, both in general and with regard to particulartransactions and investment strategies, and who understand that Deutsche Bank has financial interests in the offering ofits products and services. If this is not the case, or if you or your agent are an IRA or other retail investor receiving thisdirectly from us, we ask that you inform us immediately.

Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in theinvestor's home jurisdiction. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found athttps://gm.db.com on each company ’ s research page and under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investorsare strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.

United States: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Incorporated, a member of FINRA, NFA and SIPC.Analysts located outside of the United States are employed by non-US affiliates that are not subject to FINRA regulations,including those regarding contacts with issuer companies.??


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Germany: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank AG, a joint stock corporation with limited liability incorporatedin the Federal Republic of Germany with its principal office in Frankfurt am Main. Deutsche Bank AG is authorized underGerman Banking Law and is subject to supervision by the European Central Bank and by BaFin, Germany ’ s FederalFinancial Supervisory Authority.??United Kingdom: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank AG acting through its London Branch at WinchesterHouse, 1 Great Winchester Street, London EC2N 2DB. Deutsche Bank AG in the United Kingdom is authorised by thePrudential Regulation Authority and is subject to limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority and FinancialConduct Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation are available on request.??Hong Kong: Distributed by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited.??India: Prepared by Deutsche Equities India Private Limited (DEIPL) having CIN: U65990MH2002PTC137431 and registeredoffice at 14th Floor, The Capital, C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex Mumbai (India) 400051. Tel: + 91 22 71804444. It is registered by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a Stock broker bearing registrationnos.: NSE (Capital Market Segment) - INB231196834, NSE (F&O Segment) INF231196834, NSE (Currency DerivativesSegment) INE231196834, BSE (Capital Market Segment) INB011196830; Merchant Banker bearing SEBI Registrationno.: INM000010833 and Research Analyst bearing SEBI Registration no.: INH000001741. DEIPL may have receivedadministrative warnings from the SEBI for breaches of Indian regulations. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) mayhave debt holdings or positions in the subject company. With regard to information on associates, please refer to the“Shareholdings” section in the Annual Report at: https://www.db.com/ir/en/annual-reports.htm.??Japan: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Inc.(DSI). Registration number - Registered as a financialinstruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 117. Member of associations: JSDA, TypeII Financial Instruments Firms Association and The Financial Futures Association of Japan. Commissions and risks involvedin stock transactions - for stock transactions, we charge stock commissions and consumption tax by multiplying thetransaction amount by the commission rate agreed with each customer. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a resultof share price fluctuations and other factors. Transactions in foreign stocks can lead to additional losses stemming fromforeign exchange fluctuations. We may also charge commissions and fees for certain categories of investment advice,products and services. Recommended investment strategies, products and services carry the risk of losses to principaland other losses as a result of changes in market and/or economic trends, and/or fluctuations in market value. Beforedeciding on the purchase of financial products and/or services, customers should carefully read the relevant disclosures,prospectuses and other documentation. "Moody's", "Standard & Poor's", and "Fitch" mentioned in this report are notregistered credit rating agencies in Japan unless Japan or "Nippon" is specifically designated in the name of the entity.Reports on Japanese listed companies not written by analysts of DSI are written by Deutsche Bank Group's analysts withthe coverage companies specified by DSI. Some of the foreign securities stated on this report are not disclosed accordingto the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan. Target prices set by Deutsche Bank's equity analysts are basedon a 12-month forecast period..??Korea: Distributed by Deutsche Securities Korea Co.??South Africa: Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg is incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany (Branch RegisterNumber in South Africa: 1998/003298/10).??Singapore: This report is issued by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, SingaporeBranch (One Raffles Quay #18-00 South Tower Singapore 048583, +65 6423 8001), which may be contacted in respectof any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. Where this report is issued or promulgated by DeutscheBank in Singapore to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined in theapplicable Singapore laws and regulations), they accept legal responsibility to such person for its contents.??Taiwan: Information on securities/investments that trade in Taiwan is for your reference only. Readers shouldindependently evaluate investment risks and are solely responsible for their investment decisions. Deutsche Bank researchmay not be distributed to the Taiwan public media or quoted or used by the Taiwan public media without written consent.Information on securities/instruments that do not trade in Taiwan is for informational purposes only and is not to be


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construed as a recommendation to trade in such securities/instruments. Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, Taipei Branchmay not execute transactions for clients in these securities/instruments.??Qatar: Deutsche Bank AG in the Qatar Financial Centre (registered no. 00032) is regulated by the Qatar Financial CentreRegulatory Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - QFC Branch may undertake only the financial services activities that fall withinthe scope of its existing QFCRA license. Its principal place of business in the QFC: Qatar Financial Centre, Tower, WestBay, Level 5, PO Box 14928, Doha, Qatar. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financialproducts or services are only available only to Business Customers, as defined by the Qatar Financial Centre RegulatoryAuthority.??Russia: The information, interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in the context of, and do not constitute, anyappraisal or evaluation activity requiring a license in the Russian Federation.

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia LLC Company (registered no. 07073-37) is regulated by theCapital Market Authority. Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia may undertake only the financial services activities that fallwithin the scope of its existing CMA license. Its principal place of business in Saudi Arabia: King Fahad Road, Al OlayaDistrict, P.O. Box 301809, Faisaliah Tower - 17th Floor, 11372 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.??United Arab Emirates: Deutsche Bank AG in the Dubai International Financial Centre (registered no. 00045) is regulatedby the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - DIFC Branch may undertake only the financial servicesactivities that fall within the scope of its existing DFSA license. Its principal place of business in the DIFC: DubaiInternational Financial Centre, The Gate Village, Building 5, PO Box 504902, Dubai, U.A.E. This information has beendistributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financial products or services are available only to Professional Clients, asdefined by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.??Australia: Retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any financial productreferred to in this report and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product.Please refer to Australia-specific research disclosures and related information at https://australia.db.com/australia/content/research-information.html??Australia and New Zealand: This research is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the AustralianCorporations Act and New Zealand Financial Advisors Act, respectively.??Additional information relative to securities, other financial products or issuers discussed in this report is available uponrequest. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published without Deutsche Bank's prior written consent.Copyright © 2017 Deutsche Bank AG


David Folkerts-LandauGroup Chief Economist and Global Head of Research

Raj HindochaGlobal Chief Operating Officer

Research

Michael SpencerHead of APAC Research

Global Head of Economics

Steve PollardHead of Americas Research

Global Head of Equity Research

Anthony KlarmanGlobal Head ofDebt Research

Paul ReynoldsHead of EMEA

Equity Research

Dave ClarkHead of APAC

Equity Research

Pam FinelliGlobal Head of

Equity Derivatives Research

Andreas NeubauerHead of Research - Germany

Spyros MesomerisGlobal Head of Quantitative

and QIS Research

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Documents

21 November 2017 Markets Research DB Today - Global ...pg.jrj.com.cn/.../5bdb7577-ad82-4624-9157-08e414ca9eb5.pdfreaction to political shocks has often been over before you can digest