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21 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20
Dr. Reddy’s Labs
HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters
Valuations leave little room for disappointment
Dr. Reddys' Q4 PAT came ahead of expectations led by strong revenue growth
(+15% YoY, 6% beat) and tax write back. EBIDTA margins came in line as
lower gross margins were offset by lower SG&A spends. Improved growth
trajectory and cost control initiatives have led to EBIDTA margin expansion
(~300bps) over the last three years. Going forward, while we continue to factor
cost savings, a large part (~20%) of our FY22 estimates hinges on key product
approvals in the US (gNuvaring, gCopaxone), the approval timelines for
which remain uncertain. Despite factoring these launches and margin
expansion as per company guidance, we don’t see upside from current levels.
The stock trades at 27x/21x FY21/22 EPS which leaves limited room for
execution miss. We maintain Reduce rating with a revised TP of Rs3,770 based
on 20x FY22 EPS.
Revenue beat, margins in line: Revenues grew at 15% YoY at Rs44.3bn as
strong growth in US (+13% YoY, new launches, higher volumes), Europe
(+80% YoY, +11% YoY, strong performance in Germany, new markets) offset
muted growth in India (+5%YoY, logistics impact). EBIDTA margins came at
21.6% (down 216bps QoQ) as lower gross margins (adverse business mix,
write offs) were partially offset by lower SG&A spend (-120bps QoQ).
Major part of US growth hinges on two key product approvals: We
forecast the US business to register 14% revenue CAGR over the next two
years and two key assets - gNuvaring and gCopaxone account for ~50%+ of
growth in the same period. We factor these high value launches, along with
sustained cost savings and factor ~350bps margin expansion over FY20-22e.
Any delay in approval/launch timelines will impact our estimates.
Key call takeaways: a) Price erosion in US has stabilized, deflation to
continue; b) gNuvaring and gCopaxone – CRL to be filed in few months;
gVascepa - no hurdles on regulatory front; expects to launch 25 products in
the US; c) Wockhardt deal closure expected in Q1FY21; d) Covid impact was
neutral on revenues; e) Guidance: Gross margin: 52-54% of sales, R&D
spend: 9-10% of sales, Capex: Rs10bn in FY21, Tax rate: 22%
Maintain Reduce, risks: We increase our EPS estimates by 3-7% for FY21/22
and revise our TP to Rs3,770 (from Rs3,330 earlier). Our TP is based on 20x
FY22 EPS. Key upside risks: Lower price erosion in the US, higher growth in
India and EM markets; faster than expected approvals for key products in
the US.
Financial Summary
YE Mar (Rs mn) 4Q
FY20
4Q
FY19
YoY
(%)
3Q
FY20
QoQ
(%) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Net Revenues 44,318 38,356 15.5 43,838 1.1 140,728 153,851 167,371 186,329 210,992
EBIDTA 9,574 6,800 40.8 10,416 -8.1 22,696 30,672 34,546 41,187 50,104
Reported PAT 7,642 4,426 72.7 -5,697 NA 9,806 21,492 19,497 24,395 31,377
EPS (Rs) 45.9 26.6 72.7 -34.2 NA 58.9 129.1 117.1 146.5 188.5
P/E (x)
66.4 30.3 33.4 26.7 20.7
EV / EBITDA (x)
63.7 32.8 29.9 22.1 16.5
RoCE (%)
5.7 11.3 16.0 13.6 15.3
Source: Company, HSIE Research
REDUCE
CMP(as on 20 May 2020) Rs 3,910
Target Price Rs 3,770
NIFTY 9,067
KEY
CHANGES OLD NEW
Rating REDUCE REDUCE
Price Target Rs 3,330 Rs 3,770
EPS % FY21E FY22E
+3% +7%
KEY STOCK DATA
Bloomberg code DRRD IN
No. of Shares (mn) 166
MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 650/8,591
6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 3,135
52 Week high / low Rs 4,132/2,351
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
3M 6M 12M
Absolute (%) 20.1 37.8 51.0
Relative (%) 45.3 62.0 72.7
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
Dec-19 Mar-20
Promoters 26.76 26.75
FIs & Local MFs 15.10 14.35
FPIs 30.04 30.15
Public & Others 28.10 28.75
Pledged Shares 0.00 0.00
Source : BSE
Bansi Desai, CFA
+91-22-6171-7341
Karan Shah
+91-22-6171-7359
Page | 2
Dr Reddy’s Lab: Results Review 4QFY20
Quarterly Financial Snapshot
Particulars (Rs mn) 4QFY20 4QFY19 YoY
(%) 3QFY20
QoQ
(%) FY20 FY19 YoY (%)
Total Revenues 44,318 38,356 15.5 43,838 1.1 167,371 153,851 8.8
Gross Profit 21,510 19,113 12.5 20,116 6.9 86,780 83,430 4.0
S G & A 11,292 11,329 (0.3) 11,715 (3.6) 46,297 44,946 3.0
R&D exp. 4,190 3,662 14.4 3,949 6.1 15,410 15,607 (1.3)
Amortization exp. 885 965 (8.3) 955 (7.3) 3,832 3,944 (2.8)
Other Operating (Inc.)/exp. 168 330 (49.1) 228 (26.3) 833 1,955 (57.4)
Operating Inc. / (Loss) 6,609 3,617 82.7 7,331 (9.8) 22,074 20,888 5.7
Equity in Loss of Affiliates 105 157 (33.1) 176 (40.3) 561 438 28.1
PBT and Minority Interests 7,149 4,123 73.4 7,926 (9.8) 24,113 22,443 7.4
Income tax benefit / (exp.) 500 (1,507) NA (423) NA 1,466 (3,648) NA
Extra ordinary (income)/
exp. 7 (1,810) NA 13,200 NA 6,082 (2,697) NA
Reported PAT 7,642 4,426 72.7 (5,697) (234.1) 19,497 21,492 (9.3)
Reported EPS (Rs.) 45.9 26.6 72.7 (34.2) (234.1) 117.1 129.1 (9.3)
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Margin Analysis
Margin Analysis(% of sales) 4QFY20 4QFY19 YoY
(bps) 3QFY20
QoQ
(bps) FY20 FY19
YoY
(bps)
Material Expenses 48.5 49.8 (129) 45.9 265 48.2 45.8 238
SG&A Expenses 25.5 29.5 (406) 26.7 (124) 27.7 29.2 (155)
R&D Expenses 9.5 9.5 (9) 9.0 45 9.2 10.1 (94)
EBITDA Margin 21.6 17.7 387 23.8 (216) 20.6 19.9 70
Tax Rate (% of PBT) (7.0) 36.6 NA 5.3 NA (6.1) 16.3 NA
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Segmental Quarterly Performance
Particulars (Rs mn) 4QFY20 4QFY19 YoY
(%) 3QFY20
QoQ
(%) FY20 FY19 YoY (%)
Global Generics 36,399 30,384 19.8 35,927 1.3 138,124 122,903 12.4
North America 18,072 14,957 20.8 15,999 13.0 64,658 59,957 7.8
Europe 3,446 1,912 80.2 3,093 11.4 11,707 7,873 48.7
India 6,839 6,505 5.1 7,636 (10.4) 28,946 26,184 10.5
Russia & Other CIS 5,700 3,600 58.3 6,700 (14.9) 23,340 19,679 18.6
Others 2,342 3,410 (31.3) 2,499 (6.3) 9,473 9,210 2.9
PSAI 7,195 6,765 6.4 6,906 4.2 25,747 24,140 6.7
Others 725 3,017 (76.0) 1,005 (27.9) 10,730 6,808 57.6
Total 44,318 40,166 10.3 43,838 1.1 174,600 153,851 13.5
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Revise TP to Rs3,770, Maintain Reduce
We tweak our earnings estimates for FY21-22 by 3-7% and increase our target
multiple from 19x to 20x in line with sector average multiple. Our revised TP of
Rs3,770 (from Rs3,330 earlier) is based on 20x FY22 EPS.
Q4 revenues beat
expectation by 6% as
strong growth in US,
Europe & Russia/CIS
offsets muted growth in
India, PSAI & other
markets
Gross margin at 51.5%
improved 129bps YoY,
declined 265bps QoQ on
account of price erosion,
change in business mix and
increase in
provisions/write-off
R&D spent at 9.5% of sales
(~8.8% of sales in FY20)
EBITDA margin improved
by 387bps YoY to 21.6%
but declined 216bps QoQ
due to lower gross margins
India (+5% YoY; -10%
QoQ) was impacted by
logistic related challenges
on account of lockdown
US base biz (+21% YoY &
+13% QoQ) led by
increased volume in
existing product & new
product launches
Europe biz revenue (+80%
YoY & 11% QoQ) on the
back of improved base biz,
new product launches,
improved growth in
Germany and expansion
into new geographies
Russia+CIS biz witnessed
strong growth of 58% YoY,
however sequentially
declined by 15%
PSAI biz (+6% YoY & +4%
QoQ) was impacted due to
logistic constraint
Page | 3
Dr Reddy’s Lab: Results Review 4QFY20
Financials Consolidated Income Statement
Year to March (INR mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Revenues 148,189 154,708 140,809 140,728 153,851 167,371 186,329 210,992
Cost of revenues 62,786 62,427 62,453 65,724 70,421 80,591 87,078 96,767
Gross profits 85,403 92,281 78,356 75,004 83,430 86,780 99,252 114,225
Gross Margin (%) 57.6 59.6 55.6 53.3 54.2 51.8 53.3 54.1
SGA expenses 40,204 42,233 42,647 43,115 44,946 46,297 49,377 53,291
R&D expenses 17,449 17,834 19,551 18,265 15,607 15,410 17,701 20,044
Amortization expenses 2,381 3,469 3,725 3,476 3,944 3,832 3,889 3,932
Other operating Income/ (expense) 917 874 1,065 788 1,955 833 800 1,000
Total operating expenses 59,117 62,662 64,858 64,068 62,542 64,706 70,168 76,267
Operating income 26,286 29,619 13,498 10,936 20,888 22,074 29,084 37,958
Operating Margin (%) 17.7 19.1 9.6 7.8 13.6 13.2 15.6 18.0
Equity in profit / (loss) of affiliates 195 229 349 344 438 561 640 640
Other (expense)/income 1,682 -2,708 806 766 1,117 1,478 1,552 1,629
Tax -5,984 -7,127 -2,614 -3,231 -3,648 1,466 -6,881 -8,850
Effective tax rate (%) 21.2 26.3 17.8 26.8 16.3 -6.1 22.0 22.0
One time income/charges - 5,085 684 -991 -2,697 6,082 - -
Reported Net Income 22,179 20,013 12,039 9,806 21,492 19,497 24,395 31,377
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Consolidated Balance Sheet
Year to March (INR mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Current Assets 46,149 46,227 41,931 43,255 42,097 62,292 77,740 99,053
Cash And Equivalents 5,394 4,921 3,866 2,638 2,228 12,080 26,691 41,247
Accounts Receivable, Net Of Allowances 40,755 41,306 38,065 40,617 39,869 50,211 51,049 57,806
Inventories 25,529 25,578 28,529 29,089 33,579 35,079 39,308 44,511
Deferred Income Tax 1,819 1,664 3,413 4,567 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400
Investment Securities 34,259 35,034 14,270 18,330 22,529 22,529 22,529 22,529
Other Current Assets 12,082 11,185 12,232 14,404 12,896 14,903 16,846 19,076
Total Current Assets 63,995 64,646 85,000 69,692 59,700 70,911 71,133 72,498
Property, Plant And Equipment 48,090 53,961 57,160 57,869 54,088 52,338 50,338 49,338
Investment In Affiliates 1,033 1,309 1,603 2,104 2,529 2,529 2,529 2,529
Intangible Assets 16,430 24,644 48,677 48,610 48,269 31,769 31,769 31,769
Deferred Tax Asset 5,792 4,997 5,580 3,628 4,168 4,168 4,168 4,168
Other Assets 762 1,063 1,189 1,199 1,059 1,059 1,059 1,059
Total Assets 194,762 207,650 219,821 225,604 225,427 230,579 250,199 277,945
Current Liabilities 39,479 35,128 57,066 41,581 30,934 37,326 37,548 38,913
Borrowing From Banks 21,857 22,718 43,539 25,466 12,125 16,425 15,425 14,425
Trade Accounts Payables 10,660 12,300 13,417 16,052 14,553 16,645 17,867 20,232
Other Current Liabilities 17,317 22,070 21,932 22,764 24,351 29,351 29,351 29,351
Total Current Liabilities 63,995 64,646 85,000 69,692 59,700 70,911 71,133 72,498
Long Term Debt, Excl Current Portion 14,307 10,685 5,449 25,089 22,000 1,500 1,500 1,500
Liabilities 83,460 79,314 95,777 99,144 85,230 75,881 76,103 77,468
Total Stockholders Equity 111,302 128,336 124,044 126,460 140,197 154,697 174,096 200,477
Total Liabilities 194,762 207,650 219,821 225,604 225,427 230,579 250,199 277,945
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Page | 4
Dr Reddy’s Lab: Results Review 4QFY20
Consolidated Cash Flow Year to March (INR mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Net income 22,179 20,013 12,039 9,806 18,795 19,497 24,395 31,377
Adjustments 23,290 28,436 20,594 19,948 20,521 12,472 12,103 12,146
Depreciation & Amortization 8,100 10,250 11,277 11,710 12,190 12,472 12,103 12,146
Taxes Payable -5,396 -7,014 -5,770 -2,761 -4,841 -181 - -
Change in working capital -20,436 -7,202 -11,120 -11,725 -10,612 -2,698 -6,788 -12,825
Cash flow from operations 25,033 41,247 21,513 18,029 28,704 29,271 29,710 30,699
Capex -9,339 -12,017 -12,278 -9,291 -6,955 -10,722 -10,103 -11,146
Net Investment In Securities -8,290 1,021 21,858 -4,391 -2,282 - - -
Others -21,855 -7,385 15,665 -9,983 -3,054 16,800 - -
Cash flow from investing activities -31,194 -19,402 3,387 -19,274 -10,009 6,078 -10,103 -11,146
Shares Issued 5 1 -15,693 1 - - - -
Change in debt 352 -11,979 16,316 882 -15,182 -20,500 - -
Dividend -3,587 -4,106 -3,390 -3,992 -4,002 -4,997 -4,997 -4,997
Interest -1,090 -917 -925 -1,331 -1,607 - - -
Others -4,476 -5,023 -4,315 -5,323 -6,144 -4,997 -4,997 -4,997
Cash flows from financing activities -4,119 -17,001 -3,692 -4,440 -21,326 -25,497 -4,997 -4,997
Effects of exchange rate changes on cash -1,068 -4,296 -492 57 35 - - -
Net Change in Cash -3,058 -473 -1,142 -1,237 -349 9,852 14,611 14,556
Opening cash balance 8,451 5,394 4,921 3,866 2,542 2,228 12,080 26,691
Closing cash balance 5,393 4,921 3,779 2,629 2,228 12,080 26,691 41,247
Free Cash Flow 15,694 29,230 9,235 8,738 21,749 18,549 19,607 19,553
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Key Ratios
Year to March (INR mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
PROFITABILITY (%)
GPM 57.6 59.6 55.6 53.3 54.2 51.8 53.3 54.1
EBITDA Margin 22.8 25.3 17.9 16.1 19.9 20.6 22.1 23.7
APAT Margin 15.0 12.9 8.5 7.0 14.0 11.6 13.1 14.9
RoE 19.9 19.6 10.3 7.0 13.4 16.5 14.0 15.7
RoIC (or Core RoCE) 16.3 15.5 8.5 5.3 9.4 16.0 15.0 18.1
RoCE 17.0 14.0 8.9 5.7 11.3 16.0 13.6 15.3
EFFICIENCY
Tax Rate (%) 21.2 26.3 17.8 26.8 16.3 -6.1 22.0 22.0
Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3
Inventory (days) 63 60 74 75 80 77 77 77
Debtors (days) 100 97 99 105 95 110 100 100
Other Current Assets (days) 30 26 32 37 31 33 33 33
Payables (days) 26 29 35 42 35 36 35 35
Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 53 63 69 69 68 73 66 58
Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 137 129 138 139 140 150 142 142
Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.1 -0.2 1.2 1.3 0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9
Net D/E (x) 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
PER SHARE DATA (Rs)
EPS 129.8 117.0 72.4 58.9 129.1 117.1 146.5 188.5
Dividend 18.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Book Value 651 750 746 760 842 929 1,046 1,204
VALUATION
P/E (x) 30.1 33.4 54.0 66.4 30.3 33.4 26.7 20.7
P/BV (x) 6.0 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 26.8 23.5 51.4 63.7 32.8 29.9 22.1 16.5
EV/Revenues (x) 4.6 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.4 3.8 3.4 2.9
OCF/EV (%) 3.7 6.1 3.3 2.7 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.0
FCF/EV (%) 2.3 4.3 1.4 1.3 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.2
Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Page | 5
Dr Reddy’s Lab: Results Review 4QFY20
Rating Criteria
BUY: >+15% return potential
ADD: +5% to +15% return potential
REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential
SELL: > 10% Downside return potential
Date CMP Reco Target
28-Jan-20 3,188 NEU 3,440
13-Feb-20 3,196 NEU 3,440
24-Feb-20 3,255 NEU 3,440
2-Mar-20 2,926 ADD 3,270
8-Apr-20 3,583 REDUCE 3,330
21-May-20 3,910 REDUCE 3,770
From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
1,800
2,300
2,800
3,300
3,800
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Ma
r-2
0
Ap
r-2
0
Ma
y-2
0
Dr Reddy TP
Page | 6
Dr Reddy’s Lab: Results Review 4QFY20
Disclosure:
We, Bansi Desai, CFA & Karan Shah, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research
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the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material
conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock –No
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