21 May 2020€¦ · layer of resistance and our first profit target 1.0990/1.1020 area. • If the EURUSD was to break above the 1.0990/1.1020 resistance zone, there is scope for

21 May 2020

221 May, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 21 May 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not

contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

S&P500

• Following the completion of a corrective pullback to last weeks 2760.25 low, the view is the uptrend is on the verge of resumption.

• Confirmation of this would be a sustained break/close above the next layer of resistance, provided by the 200 day moving average at

3000area. Beyond 3000, there is scope to retest the highs of early March 3115/3135.

• Keeping in mind, it would require a break/close below 2760.25 to suggest the bullish move has lost traction.

• Short Term Summary: A sustained break/close above 3000 would suggest the next leg higher towards the next upside target at 3137 has

commenced.

321 May, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 21 May 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not


AUDUSD

• Following almost 3 weeks of corrective sideways price action the view is the correction is likely complete and the uptrend is on the

verge of resumption.

• Before this can be confirmed, the AUDUSD needs to successfully tackle a layer of strong overhead resistance .6670/90. My view is this

resistance will hold in the first instance and nimble traders should be looking for a set up (bearish reversal candle) to enter AUDUSD

shorts into this resistance zone.

• Keeping in mind that a sustained break/close above .6670/90 resistance zone would open the way for the rally to extend towards

.6830/50. Short Term Summary: Cautiously bullish, however I am looking to set tactical shorts .6670/90 area.

421 May, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 21 May 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not


EURUSD

• Over the past 48 hours the EURUSD consolidated the break above short term resistance at 1.0900 and then pushed into the next

layer of resistance and our first profit target 1.0990/1.1020 area.

• If the EURUSD was to break above the 1.0990/1.1020 resistance zone, there is scope for the rally to continue towards the next layer

of resistance 1.1120/50. A break and close above here would then be a very bullish medium-term development with scope initially to

1.1500.

• TRADE IDEA: Currently long EURUSD at 1.0844. The first profit target the 1.0990/1.1020 resistance zone has been reached and

partial profits booked. We keep the remainder of the position for a run towards 1.1120/50. The stop loss has now been raised to

1.0890.

521 May, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 21 May 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

NZDUSD

• Well here we are again with the NZDUSD eyeing a layer of crucial resistance .6175/90 area.

• Given the location of other key risk asset markets (approaching key resistance) we expect the .6175/00 resistance zone to cap the

advance in the short term on a closing basis. What this means is we need to allow for an intraday spike above .6175/90 and focus on

the daily close.

• Should a bearish rejection candle form with a daily close below resistance, it would signal that rotation lower towards range support

.5920/10 is underway. Keeping in mind a sustained break/close above .6175/90 would signal that the next leg higher toward .6450 has

commenced. Short Term Summary: Neutral


AUDNZD

• The pullback from the 1.0825/65 resistance zone has continued and firms up the possibility that the cross completed a five wave

advance at the 1.0831 high.

• This is a good sign that a pullback has commenced which would offer a long trade entry at better levels. The 1.0550/30 region is the

area we have in mind to look to enter longs.

• Keeping in mind that should AUDNZD break and close above 1.0865ish it opens the way for another leg higher towards the August

2018 high, at 1.1175.

• Short Term Summary: A bullish bias is in place - looking to buy dips.


EURAUD

• The retracement from the March 1.9799 high is viewed as a corrective pullback (Wave iv), following the impulsive run higher in

March.

• Providing EURAUD remains above medium-term support 1.6500, we are looking for the uptrend to resume.

• In line with this we suggested a long EURAUD trade a few weeks back, as outlined below. Keeping in mind that should EURAUD

break/close below the 1.6500 support zone it would negate the bullish bias.

• TRADE IDEA: Currently long EURAUD at 1.6855. The stop loss is placed at 1.6529. The target remains open.


EURCAD

• The view remains that the decline from the 1.5991 high to the recent 1.5053 low was a corrective “abc” type pullback after the strong

run higher in March.

• As such, we are looking for the uptrend to resume and in anticipation of this, two weeks ago suggested entering a long trade leaning

against the April 1.5053 low as outlined below.

• A break and close above 1.5310/20 would be initial confirmation the uptrend has resumed.

• TRADE IDEA: We are long EURCAD at an average of 1.5350 with a stop loss placed at 1.5045. The target is a move to 1.6000.


USDJPY

• The rejection from resistance 112.25/50 (the Feb 112.23 high and the 2019, 112.40 high), returned USDJPY to its range, albeit a large

range. Because of the V shaped bottom at the 101.18 low, we favor that when the range breaks, it will be to the topside with scope to

114.50 and 118.50.

• We are now watching for a break and close above recent highs and the 200 day moving average 108.10/45 to confirm a tradable low is

in place at the 105.98 double bottom from early May. This would be the catalyst for us to look to enter longs in USDJPY, in anticipation

of a rally towards 112.50/50.

• Short term view: Currently neutral, turning bullish above 108.45.


GOLD

• The break above triangle resistance $1721 and the Wave d high at $1724 last week was the catalyst for us to open a long gold trade.

• We are in two minds what happens next. While we want to give the rally room to extend towards the ideal target $1790/1800 the

minimum upside requirements for a Wave V were already been met – i.e. a move above $1747.

• Following the bearish reversal candle that formed earlier this week we took partial profits at $1734 area and raised the stop loss as

outlined below. This gives us a chance to participate if the uptrend resumes and should gold fall we still make a small profit.

• Trade Idea: We opened last week at $1725. Profit on half of this position has been locked in at $1734 and the stop loss has been

raised to $1719. The target remains the $1790/1800 area on the balance of longs.


Bitcoin

• The rally from the 3850-low has taken on more impulsive characteristics since late April, however two final bullish hurdles remain - a

move above year to date highs 10500 area and weekly trend channel resistance 11000 area viewed on the previous page.

• In the short-term, it is possible that Bitcoin is currently tracing out a minor Wave iv retracement with a wave c of Wave iv still to come,

towards support at 8000, before again looking towards these medium-term resistance levels 10500/11000.

• Short Term Summary: The preference is to buy a dip to the wave c of Wave iv target 8000 area should it occur in coming days.

1221 May, 2020

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DISCLAIMER

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Documents

21 May 2020€¦ · layer of resistance and our first profit target 1.0990/1.1020 area. • If the EURUSD was to break above the 1.0990/1.1020 resistance zone, there is scope for