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NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 1 J Randers 1
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
2052 – A Global Forecast
for the Next Forty Years
Implications for AQPER
2052 – A Global Forecast
for the Next Forty Years
Implications for AQPER
Jorgen Randers
Professor
Center for Climate Strategy
Norwegian Business School BI
Association Quebecoise de la Production d’Energie Renouvelable
Montreal, March 11th, 2015
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 2
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 2
Twelve scenarios
for the 21st century.
Warned against
growth beyond the
carrying capacity of
small planet Earth.
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 3
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0
1
1
1 1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3 4
4
4
4
5
5
5 5
Year
5: Nonrenewable resources
3: Industrial output
4: Pollution level
2: Food output
1: Population
Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis
Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 4
Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability
Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year
0
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3 3
4 4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5: Nonrenewable resources
1: Population
2: Food output
3: Industrial output
4: Pollution level
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 5
A forecast of global
development to 2052.
Predicts that the world will
follow the pollution
scenario in The Limits to
Growth, somewhat delayed.
See www.2052.info
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 6
Main trends towards 2052
1. Slower growth – both in population and
GDP
2. Gradual shift towards renewable energy
3. Continued growth in man-made
greenhouse gas emissions
4. Steadily deteriorating climate
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 7
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population
Consumption
CO2
emissions
GDP
Temperature
rise
Past and future world
Max values 9 Gp, 150 G$/yr, 50 GtCO2/yr, 150 G$/yr, 2.5 deg C
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 13
Figure 9-1a: Past and future World - State of Affairs -1970 to 2050
Central elements of the 2052 forecast
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 8
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
There will be huge regional differences
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
After-tax income per person (in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)
US
OECD-less-US
China
World average
Rest of world
BRISE
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 9
A much better future is possible
1. It is not impossibly costly
2. Requires a shift of 2 % of the world’s
labor and capital from dirty to clean
sectors
3. Is fiercely resisted by those who dislike
higher taxes and more regulation, plus
by the incumbent workers and owners
in the dirty sectors
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 10
Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050
World energy use will peak in 2040
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
0
60
120
180
240
300
0
4
8
12
16
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World
energy use
(←scale)
toe / M$ Gtoe / yr
Energy intensity
= Energy use
per unit of GDP
(scale →) 180
G$
/ yr
World GDP
(scale →→)
240
300
120
60
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 11
0,0
1,3
2,6
3,9
5,2
6,5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Oil use
Gtoe / yr
Nuclear use
Gas use
Coal use
Renewable energy use
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 8
Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
World use of fossil fuels will peak around 2030
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 12
Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 emissions
(←scale)
tCO2 / toe GtCO2 / yr
Climate intensity
= CO2 per unit
of energy
(scale →) 15
Gtoe/yr
Energy use
(scale →→)
20
25
10
5
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 9
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 13
Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050
Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
0
100
200
300
400
500
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 in atmosphere
(←scale)
deg C ppm
Temperature rise
(scale →) 0.9
m
Sea level rise
(scale →→)
1.2
1.5
0.6
0.3
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 10
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 14
What should be done?
1. Stop the use of fossil fuels in transport
2. Make buildings much more energy
efficient
3. Make manufacturing more energy
efficient
4. Build enough renewable energy
capacity (hydro, wind, solar for power;
solar and biomass for heat)
5. Build enough CCS to keep us below +2
deg Centigrade
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 15
The long-term energy solution is obvious
1. Mainly electric, from climate friendly
sources. No coal, oil and gas
2. Most heat replaced by electricity (in
buildings, manufacturing, transport)
3. Cheap solar power, cheaper wind
power, some solar heat
4. Some gas and CCS in the transition
5. Some biomass, but not from slow-
growing species – they are more useful
for carbon storage
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 16
What should you do?
1. Understand that the transition won’t
happen on its own – not fast enough
2. Exploit every opportunity that arise for
more renewables
3. Get into the energy efficiency business
4. Argue hard for more regulation: – ban (or tax) on cheap fossil solutions
– subsidies to renewable solutions
– tax-financed construction of clean capacity,
including R&D
5. Must be done while demand stagnates
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 17
Sell it as a positive challenge!
Green electricity to save the world!
Remind voters that failure will mean
higher adaptation costs, that inevitably
will be paid for by the tax-payer
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 19
Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009
50 % of human CO2 ends in the atmosphere
1. Emissions from energy
production (grey)
2. Emissions from
deforestation (brown)
4. Absorbed in oceans
(blue)
3. Absorbed in forests
(green)
CO
2-f
low
in
Gt/ye
ar
5.To atmo-
sphere
(yellow)
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 20
The five regions used in the 2052 forecast
Region Population
2010
(billion
people)
GDP
2010
(trillion
$ pr year)
GDP per person
2010
(1000
$ pr person-year)
US 0,3 13 41
China 1,3 10 7
OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30
BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6
ROW (3) 2,1 8 4
Sum world 6,9 67 10
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc
(2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies
(3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 21
Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050
World population will peak in 2040
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
0
2
4
6
8
10
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Birth rate
(scale →)
Death rate
Population
(←scale)
% / yr Gpersons
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 22
World GDP growth will slow down
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
0
30
60
90
120
150
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World GDP
(scale →)
G$ / yr % / yr
Long term growth rate in
output per person aged 15 to 65
(←scale)
g130605j
6.0
Gp
8.0
10.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Population
aged 15 to 65
(scale → →)
Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050
Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Output per member of potential workforce
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 23
0
30
60
90
120
150
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World GDP
Non-discretionary
spending (repair, adaptation, mitigation)
G$ / yr
Consumption
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 4
Traditional
investment (24% of GDP)
Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment – World 1970 to 2050
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
More unavoidable repair and adaptation work
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 24
Figure 6-1: Food Production – World 1970 to 2050
Enough food to satisfy demand – but not need
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
10,0
12,5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Food production
(←scale)
Gha Gt / yr
Cultivated land
(scale →) 6
t/ha-yr
Gross yield
(scale →→)
8
10
4
2
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 11
THE WORLD
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 25
Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast
♣ World population and economy
will grow more slowly towards 2052
than most people expect
- but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis
♣ Consumption will stagnate
because society will have to spend ever more
labour and capital on repair and adaptation
♣ The short-term nature of man
- reflected in the short term focus
of democracy and capitalism -
is the root cause of this development
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 26
1. World population and GDP growth will slow
Because of human choice, not planetary constraints
2. There will be enough resources – energy, water & food
Because middle class will be smaller than expected
But unsatisfied needs among those who can’t pay
3. There will still be significant poverty
Because of growing inequity in the rich world
and low GDP growth in the poor world
4 . The world will be well on its way towards a climate
catastrophe in the second half of the 21st century
Discussion of the 2052 forecast
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 27 J Randers 27
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
Simple to make a better world. In principle!
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 28
What should be done? - Ideally
1. Further slow population growth
Introduce 1-child policy – first in rich world
2. Cut CO2 emissions – first in the rich world
Ban the use of coal, oil and gas from 2024
3. Reduce poverty in the poor world
Give a climate-friendly energy system to the poor
4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world
Legislate more compulsory vacation
5. Temper national short termism
Establish supra-national institutions
6. Reduce the focus on income growth
Establish “increased well-being” as the new goal
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 29
What can be done? – Realistically (1 of 2)
1. Further slow population growth
♦ Give moral support to women with < 2.1 children
♦ Increase the pension age
♦ Explain that the “support burden” will not grow
2. Cut CO2 emissions – first in the rich world
♦ Subsidize energy efficiency in all sectors
♦ Build no new coal capacity in the rich world
♦ Tax coal and oil and distribute the money evenly
3. Reduce poverty in the poor world
♦ Use most development aid to build renewable
energy capacity in the developing world
♦ Copy the planned rise of Japan, South Korea and
China – and their use of “strong government”
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 30
What can be done? – Realistically (2 of 2)
4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world
♦ Simplify shift from dirty to clean production
= provide income security in transition
♦ Reduce production growth
= reduce length of the work year, i.e. more leisure
4. Temper national short termism
♦ Establish a global agreement where all nations
promise to emit less CO2 per person than the US
♦ Evolve IPCC to “IPCC 3” (a supernational org.
with funding to pay for the most effective cuts)
5. Reduce the focus on income growth
♦ Start measuring “growth in well-being” alongside
“growth in GDP”
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 31
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Slowing growth in total productivity - USA
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Rate of growth in
GDP per
person 15 to 65 years of age
% / yr
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3c
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 32
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Replacement fertility = 2.1 children per woman
Total fertility
Long term trend
POPULATION_BY_AGE_FEMALE_120522.xls
Fertility decline in EU-15 – 1950 to 2010
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Figure A4-1 Total Fertility – EU15 1950 to 2010
Definition: Total fertility = Number of children per woman during reproductive age