Board of Directors | March 12, 2021

2021 Regional Plan Discussion

Regional Plan Discussion Agenda

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Part A: Data Used in the Planning Process• SANDAG staff presentation• Potential Board Member questions

Part B: Cost Estimates and Funding Strategy10 a.m. time certain• Independent expert panel• SANDAG staff presentation

Board Member questions and discussion

Data used in the Planning ProcessBoard of Directors | March 12, 2021

2021 Regional Plan:

Today’s Presenters

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Allison WoodSenior Regional Planner

Pat LandrumDirector of Data and Modeling

David TedrowManager of Economic and Demographic Analysis and Modeling

Wu Sun, PhDPrincipal Researcher and Modeler

Rick CurryManager of Transportation Analysis and Application

Cindy Burke, PhDDirector of Research and Program Management

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Documentation of Presentation and Draft Data Analysis

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• Presentations to SANDAG Board of Directors andPolicy Advisory Committees

• Development of the 5 Big Moves• Network Development• Model Data Input Sheet

• San Diego Regional Travel Demand Model (ABM2+)• Survey Reports• Computer Code• Draft Networks• Draft Performance Metrics

• Regional Growth Forecast Documentation• Sustainable Communities Strategy Land Use Scenario• Employment Centers• Goods Movement

Iterative Planning Process

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Existing Conditions

Future Conditions

Integrated Solutions

Benefits and

Performance

GoalsFastFair

Clean

ITERATIVE PROCESS

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Outreach and Engagement

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Stakeholders Community Input

Human Centered Design Vision Advisory Panel

Staff reports and presentations: www.SDForward.com/reports

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Transportation Networkand Phasing

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Available on sdforward.com:• Network Development Summary Report• Data Viewer Application

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Regional Growth Forecast and Land Use Policies

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Pricing, Telework, and Incentive Programs

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Data Development Lifecycle

From Concept to ABM2+ Evaluation

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SCS Land Use Scenario Policy StrategiesTransportation

Networks

Activity Based Model

(ABM2+)

PerformanceMeasures

Regional Growth Forecast and Land Use Scenario

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DOF Population Forecast

Census Data

Economic Model

Regional Modeling

SB 375 Requirements

Housing Parameters

Regional Totals

Local Jurisdiction Data

Census Demographics

Sub-Regional Modeling

Housing Units by Type

Population Households

Characteristics

Jobs by Sector

Planning Strategies

https://sandag.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=9dc69ab8a4aa497ca91d507a76f2dc2b

Synthetic Population

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High Level ABM2+ Inputs & Outputs

Population Households

Characteristics

Employment

Enrollment

ABM2+

Travel demand-total number of

trips

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

Mode shares

Traffic volumes on road networks

Transit Ridership

Travel time/Congestion

Trip Lengths

Transportation Networks

Parking Supply and Costs

Exogenous inputs such as AOC

ABM2+ Wiki with description of model structure and methodologies https://github.com/SANDAG/ABM/wiki Walk and bike

trips

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Travel Surveys Inform ModelParameters

Revealed behaviors in surveys:• Household travel behavior survey• Transit on-board survey• TNC survey• Commercial vehicle survey• Crossborder survey• Parking survey

Estimation:

• Statistical methods using Alogitsoftware

• Examine t-statistic of estimated parameters

• Represented as utility expressions

• Solved by ABM2+ software

Represented in utility expressions:

Decision-making-unit h Alt 3 MNL

Formula for variable Index Alt1 Alt2 Alt3Mandatory NonMandatory Home

fullTimeWorkerA 2.9114 -0.7695partTimeWorkerA 2.9274 1.3675universityStudentA 1.7642 -0.3138nonWorkingAdultA -3.1521 0.5130retiredA -2.7055 0.9234drivingAgeSchoolChildA 3.2036 -3.4315preDrivingAgeSchoolChildA 7.0644 2.5740preSchoolChildA 1.1000 0.6017age0to1A -1.5151 0.3702age4to5A 3.2965 1.1392age6to9Aage13to15A -0.8582ageUnder35A -0.1450ageUnder35A -0.7095 -1.4213ageOver80AfemaleA 0.3032 0.7718femaleA 0.0610 0.4176femaleA 1.2429 2.2549femaleA 0.1475femaleA -0.7751 -0.3729femaleA 0.7991moreCarsThanWorkers -0.0870moreCarsThanWorkers 0.2122moreCarsThanWorkers 0.8642moreCarsThanWorkers 0.0988noCars -0.3377noCars -0.5917 -1.4389fewerCarsThanWorkers -0.3377fewerCarsThanWorkers -0.4778 -0.5259incomeLess30k -0.7201 -0.5331incomeLess30k 0.1285incomeLess30k 0.4359income60to100k 0.6352incomeMore100k 0.6352incomeMore100k -0.2468income60to100kincomeMore100k -0.1418 -0.2388incomeLess30k 1.2007 1.9783income60to100k 0.2952incomeMore100k 0.2952

Household Travel Behavior Survey:https://www.sandag.org/uploads/projectid/projectid_540_26829.pdf

On Board Transit Survey:https://www.sandag.org/uploads/projectid/projectid_494_21412.pdf

ABM2+ Code Repository: https://github.com/SANDAG/ABM

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What influences travel behavior?

Housing, population, & land use•Population/housing growth

•Employment•Enrollment•Population & Employment densities

Transportation networks•Roadway network•Transit network•Transit service frequencies•Bike and pedestrian networks

Pricing Strategies• Road user cost• Parking supply and cost• Transit fare• Toll

Other Policies•Telework rates•E-bike ownership

Reports and Documents: https://github.com/SANDAG/ABM/wiki/Reports-and-Documents

Enhancements for 2021 Regional Plan: https://github.com/SANDAG/ABM/wiki/files/ABM2PReportV2.pdf

Sensitivity Testing Report: https://github.com/SANDAG/ABM/wiki/files/SensitivityReportV3.pdf

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ABM 2+PeerReview

Tier 4 PRP• Highest level PRP• Peer reviewed twice

11 National Experts• FHWA• CARB• CA MPO experts• MPO experts from other States

• Academia• Private sector

Evaluation Highlights:•Well above state of practice•Some features are state of art•Highly praised sensitivity tests•Ready for 2021 RP

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Strategy EvaluationComplete Corridors• Managed Lanes• High Occupancy Vehicle policies• Regional Bike Network• Congestion Pricing/Toll Rates• Regional Road user charge

Transit Leap• Commuter rail• Light Rail• Next Generation Rapid• Local Bus• Transit Fare Subsidies

Next OS• Active Transportation

Demand Management (ATDM)• Smart SignalsTechnical Methodology Submitted to

California Air Resources Board: https://gis.sandag.org/docs/DRAFT%20Technical%20Methodology%20to%20Estimate%20GHG%20Emissions_with%20appendices_February%202021.pdf

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Strategy EvaluationFlexible Fleets & Mobility Hubs• Local complete streets• Parking management & Fees• Microtransit• Micromobility• Pooled TNC’s & TNC Fees• E-bikes

Zero Emission Vehicles• Regional EV Charger Program• Regional EV Incentive Program

Demand Management• Telework• Pooled rides (private)• Vanpool• Carshare• Regional TDM Ordinance

Technical Methodology Submitted to California Air Resources Board: https://gis.sandag.org/docs/DRAFT%20Technical%20Methodology%20to%20Estimate%20GHG%20Emissions_with%20appendices_February%202021.pdf

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Analyzing ABM2+ Outputs

Filters• Travel Mode• Trip Purpose or Destination• Vehicle Type• Time of Day• Socio-Economic VariablesOther Uses• Input into another model

• Benefit/Cost• Emission

Travel Distance &

Time

Travel Cost

Travel Volumes

ABM2+ Reporting Code Repository: https://github.com/SANDAG/ABM-Reporting

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Performance Measure Assessment

Measure MethodVehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Summation of traffic assignment results for each link (volume *

length)SB 375 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG per capita)

Traffic assignment results of VMT by speed bin are fed into CARB’s EMFAC software in SB 375 mode (SB 375 does not include heavy vehicles)

Access to opportunities via transit (employment centers and higher education)

AM peak period journey to work travel time door to door (zone to zone)

Access to basic needs (retail, parks, and medical) via mode for the region and mobility hubs

Assesses percentage of population with a door to door (zone to zone) travel time within a specific time interval to at least 1 location.

Benefit Cost Ratio Specific tool used to monetize benefits/disbenefits (travel time savings, safety, air quality, physical activity, fuel, etc.) over the life of the plan/cost.

Mode Share Percentage of trips made by mode (work trip peak period, all trips all day)

Draft output performance measures: https://sandag.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=a8031ec54dbb47b59e97814b0767c07b

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Ensuring the Quality of the Data

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Research and Program Management

Peer Review Process(PRP)

Office of Quality Assurance and Quality Control (QA/QC)

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What is a PRP?

• Tier 1 - Intra-departmental (DAM)

• Tier 2 - Inter-departmental• Tier 3 - Inter-agency• Tier 4 - Expert Review

A formal mechanism

To ensure data, analyses, reports, and other information compiled

Are valid, reliable, and easy to understand

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PRP Accomplishments to Date

• 123 PRPs completed since March 2017

• 65 related to the Regional Plan

• 12 Tier 4 reviews with outside experts

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Quality Assurance & Quality Control

Dedicated team of data analysts

Skilled in statistical and analytic tools such as R, Python, SPSS, SQL, & GIS

Assigned to conduct detailed quality assessments of SANDAG data and analytic products

To ensure validity and reliability of the data to the highest degree possible and to transparently document limitations

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QA/QC Accomplishments to Date

68 reviews in 2020 & 2021, 24 related to the Regional Plan

• Multiple reviews of Regional Forecast versions

• Regional parking data, assumptions and calculations

• Off Model Calculators• Air Quality Conformity Calculations• Regional Plan Transit Operations Costs

and Revenues in 2020 $ and Year of Expenditure $

• Use of data in Draft Regional Plan appendices

Examples of Findings/Results• Improvements to Excel spreadsheets to

provide clarity, traceability, & reduce potential for error

• Improvements to SQL query logic

• Established new technique for QC of smaller geographies

• Establishing project charters & checklists

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Embracing data-driven planning, leveraging emerging technologies, and incorporating resident input

A bold new approach to planning for the future

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Cost Estimation Methodology and Funding StrategiesBoard of Directors | March 12, 2021

2021 Regional Plan:

Board of Directors | March 12, 2021

Panel: Pricing Strategies

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Panel Discussion

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Brianne EbySenior Policy AnalystEno Center for TransportationWashington D.C.

Haney HongExecutive Director and CEO

San Diego County Taxpayers Association

San Diego

Bob PooleDirector of Transportation PolicyReason FoundationWashington D.C.

Michael ManvilleAssociate Professor of Urban PlanningUCLA Luskin CenterLos Angeles

MODERATOR PANELIST PANELIST PANELIST

Cost Estimation Methodology and Funding StrategiesBoard of Directors | March 12, 2021

2021 Regional Plan:

16

$37.5

$63.7

$17.0 $5.9

$6.0

$130 Billion

$44.8

$87.7

$16.6 $4.9

$9.1

$163 Billion

2015 Regional Plan (Adopted) 2021 Regional Plan (Estimate)

Cost Estimate Comparison(in billions of 2020 dollars)

Operations Capital Debt ServiceLocal streets and roads Programs

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D R A F T

Cost Estimate Comparison

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D R A F T

$27.

6

$26.

7

$25.

9

$17.

0

$11.

0

$10.

0

$5.9

$3.1

$2.9

$19.

6 $24.

7

$55.

5

$16.

6

$18.

6

$4.9

$3.7

$9.1

$0.5

$4.8

$5.0

$0.2

$-

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

T ra nsitOp era tion s

M an.La nes /Reg .Roa dwa ys

T ra nsit Ca pita l L ocal St ree tsan d Ro ads

CA Hig h Spe edRail

F re eway Opsan d M aint .

De bt Se rvice ActiveT ran spo rta tion

TDM/ Ince ntivePgm s/Gr ant s

Go od sM ovem en t

T ra nsit Far eSub sidies

M obility Hub s/F lex F leet s

Ne xt Op er atingSyste m

(in b

illion

s of

202

0 do

llars

)

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Revenue Assumption Comparison

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$34.

4

$18.

3

$18.

2

$15.

7

$9.9

$7.6

$6.9

$6.8

$5.7

$5.0

$1.1

$0.2

$34.

5

$18.

5

$10.

6

$8.8

$13.

5

$5.4

$15.

7 $18.

4

$4.7

$14.

2

$1.0 $1.7

$0.5 $2

.2

$15.

7

$-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0

State Formula & Grants

Federal Formula &

Grants

TransNet General Local Farebox Revenue

Transportation Development

Act

Future State Road User

Charge

Future Local Sales Tax

Future Federal Fuel

Tax

Managed Lanes Tolls

Mitigation Fees & Other

Private Investment

Federal Other Future TNC Fees

Future Regional

Road User Charge

2015 Regional Plan (Adopted) 2021 Regional Plan (Estimate)

(in b

illion

s of

202

0 do

llars

)

D R A F T

Funding Strategies Comparison

2015 Regional Plan (Adopted)

2021 Regional Plan (Estimated)

Additional Sales TaxFuture Local Regional Sales Tax: $0.005 $7 $11 Future MTS Service Area Sales Tax: $0.005 N/A $7

Transportation Network Company FeesPer Trip Fee Non-Pooled $1.25 & $0.65 Pooled N/A $2

Road Usage ChargeFuture Local Road Usage Charge: $0.02/mile N/A $16 Future State Road Usage Charge: $0.02/mile $7 $16

State Housing Revenue for Transportation (SB 795) N/A $4

Network of Priced Managed Lanes $1 $13

California High Speed Rail $8 N/A

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D R A F T

(in billions of 2020 dollars)

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Summarized Revenue by Funding Mechanism

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2015 Regional Plan(Adopted) % of total

2021 Regional Plan(Estimated) % of total

% Change from 2015 Regional Plan

Fuel Taxes $53 41% $54 32% 2%

Sales Taxes $33 25% $34 21% 6%

User Fees $17 13% $47 28% 179%

Local General Funds $12 9% $7 4% -39%

Financing $8 6% $0.5 0% -93%

Tolls $5 4% $14 9% 186%

Cap and Trade $2 1% $2 1% 16%

Impact Fees $0.8 1% $4 3% 477%

Fees $0.3 0% $0.3 0% -6%

Private Investment $0.2 0% $1.7 1% 742%

GRAND TOTAL $130 100% $165 100%

D R A F T

Summary of Attachment 2

(in billions of 2020 dollars)

Addressing the Challenges

Fast

Clean

Fair

Cong

estio

n

State & Federal Mandates

Social

Equity

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Upcoming 2021 Regional Plan Items

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Meeting Date Topic

April 9 Technology Considerations

April 23 Social Equity

May 14 Alignment of State, Regional, and Local Planning

May 28 Release Draft 2021 Regional Plan

2021 Regional Plan Timeline

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SPRING

Release Draft Plan

SUMMER

Release Draft EIR

FALL

Adopt Plan and Certify EIR

2021

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