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AN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR
OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE
THE STATE’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOKJANUARY2021
Lawrence M. Kessler, Research Associate Professor and Project DirectorBoyd Center for Business and Economic Research
PREPARED BY THE
Boyd Center for Business and Economic ResearchHaslam College of BusinessThe University of Tennessee
Knoxville, Tennessee
IN COOPERATION WITH THE
Tennessee Department of Finance and AdministrationTennessee Department of Economic and Community Development
Tennessee Department of Revenueand
Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development
AN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR
OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE
THE STATE’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOKJANUARY2021
ii | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
AUTHORS
UT Boyd Center for Business and Economic ResearchLawrence M. Kessler, Research Associate Professor and Project DirectorDonald J. Bruce, Professor of EconomicsCeleste K. Carruthers, Associate Professor of EconomicsWilliam F. Fox, DirectorEnda P. Hargaden, Assistant Professor of EconomicsVickie C. Cunningham, Research AssociateAlex S. Norwood, Research AssociateRichard H. Beem, Jr., Graduate Research Assistant
The Agri-Industry Modeling and Analysis Group Kimberly L. Jensen, Professor and UTIA Faculty FellowBurton C. English, Professor and UTIA Institute ProfessorR. Jamey Menard, Research Leader
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee Institute of AgricultureAndrew Griffith, Associate Professor of Agricultural EconomicsDavid Hughes, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Greever Chair of ExcellenceAndrew Muhammad, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Blasingame Chair of ExcellenceAlicia Rihn, Assistant Professor of Agricultural EconomicsAaron Smith, Associate Professor of Agricultural EconomicsEdward Yu, Associate Professor of Agricultural EconomicsJackie Yenerall, Assistant Professor of Agricultural EconomicsEthan Loveday, Undergraduate Researcher
PROJECT SUPPORT STAFF
UT Boyd Center for Business and Economic ResearchErin Hatfield, Communications CoordinatorBrittany Permaul, Business Manager
The preparation of this report was financed in part by the following agencies: the Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration, the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, the Tennessee Department of Revenue, and the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
This material is the result of tax-supported research and as such is not copyrightable. It may be freely reprinted with the customary crediting of the source.
AN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE
CONTRIBUTORS
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | iii
Lawrence M. KesslerResearch Associate Professor and Project DirectorBoyd Center for Business and Economic Research
PREFACE
This 2021 volume of An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee is the forty-fifth in a series of annual reports compiled in response to requests by state government officials for assistance in achieving greater interdepartmental consistency in planning and budgeting efforts sensitive to the overall economic environment. Both short-term, or business cycle-sensitive forecasts, and longer-term, or trend forecasts, are provided in this report.
The quarterly state forecast through the first quarter of 2023 and annual forecast through 2030 represent the collective judgment of the staff of the University of Tennessee’s Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research in conjunction with the Quarterly and Annual Tennessee Econometric Models. The national forecasts were prepared by IHS Markit. Tennessee forecasts, current as of December 2020, are based on an array of assumptions, particularly at the national level, which are described in Chapter One. Chapter Two details evaluations for major sectors of the Tennessee economy, with an agriculture section provided by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture. Chapter Three presents the long-run outlook and forecast for the state. Chapter Four provides a retrospective as to how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the Tennessee economy beyond what has already been discussed at great length in Chapter 1 and Chapter 2. We expand on some topics discussed earlier in the Report, including a large focus on how the labor market has fared so far as well as state tax revenue collections. We also provide brief discussions on social assistance programs in Tennessee, early-stage business formation patterns, and implications for education and learning during the pandemic.
The primary purpose of this annual volume—published, distributed, and financed through the Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration, Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, the Tennessee Department of Revenue, and the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development—is to provide wide public dissemination of the most-current possible economic analysis to planners and decision-makers in the public and private sectors.
CONTENTS
iv | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1: THE U.S. ECONOMY ....................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. The U.S. Economy: Year in Review .................................................................................................................1
Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................1
Consumption .................................................................................................................................................2
Effects of Lockdown Orders ...........................................................................................................................5
Effects of Economic Impact Payments ...........................................................................................................6
The Labor Market ...........................................................................................................................................6
A Point on Percentages and Annualized Rates..............................................................................................8
Time-Use ......................................................................................................................................................10
Investment and Interest Rates......................................................................................................................11
Federal Budget and Stimulus Efforts ............................................................................................................12
International Trade ......................................................................................................................................14
Productivity & Wages ..................................................................................................................................14
1.2. The U.S. Forecast ..........................................................................................................................................15
Consumption ................................................................................................................................................15
The Labor Market .........................................................................................................................................16
Investment and Interest Rates......................................................................................................................16
International Trade .......................................................................................................................................16
Government Budget .....................................................................................................................................16
Inf lation & Prices ..........................................................................................................................................17
The Housing Market .....................................................................................................................................18
1.3. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ..........................................................................................................................18
1.4. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................19
CHAPTER 2: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK ......................................................... 20
2.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................20
2.2. The Current Economic Environment.............................................................................................................23
The Labor Market .........................................................................................................................................23
Business Formation Activity During the Pandemic .......................................................................................28
Income, Earnings and Taxable Sales ..........................................................................................................29
International Trade and Tennessee..............................................................................................................31
2.3. Short-Term Outlook .......................................................................................................................................34
2.4. Tennessee Forecast at a Glance ...................................................................................................................38
2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy ..........................................................39
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................39
Agriculture and Primary Forestry ..................................................................................................................39
Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing in Tennessee...............................................................................49
Rural Economies and Well-Being .................................................................................................................51
CONTENTS
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | v
Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic Beyond the Farm Gate.........................................................................51
Summary ......................................................................................................................................................53
References ...................................................................................................................................................55
CHAPTER 3: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: LONG-TERM OUTLOOK .......................................................... 58
3.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 58
3.2. Nonfarm Employment ...................................................................................................................................59
3.3. Unemployment ..............................................................................................................................................64
3.4. Population and Labor Force .........................................................................................................................66
3.5. Income, Earnings and Output .......................................................................................................................74
3.6 Forecast at a Glance ......................................................................................................................................77
CHAPTER 4: COVID-19 AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY ............................................................................ 78
4.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................78
4.2. COVID-19 and the Labor Market ..................................................................................................................80
4.3. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Public Assistance Program Participation ...................................................93
4.4. Taxes During the Pandemic ..........................................................................................................................95
Sales Taxes .................................................................................................................................................95
Corporate Taxes .........................................................................................................................................100
Motor Vehicle Taxes ..................................................................................................................................100
Realty Transfer and Mortgage Taxes ........................................................................................................100
4.5. COVID-19 and Education ............................................................................................................................101
4.6. COVID-19 and Early-Stage Business Formation .......................................................................................103
4.7. Federal Stimulus during the Pandemic ......................................................................................................105
4.8. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................................108
4.9. References ...................................................................................................................................................109
APPENDIX A: FORECAST DATA ......................................................................................................................... 1
Quarterly History Tables .........................................................................................................................................2
Annual Forecast Tables ........................................................................................................................................26
APPENDIX B: HISTORICAL DATA ..................................................................................................................... 39
Quarterly History Tables .......................................................................................................................................40
Annual Forecast Tables ........................................................................................................................................64
CONTENTS
vi | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
FIGURES AND TABLES
CHAPTER 1: THE U.S. ECONOMY ..................................................................................................................... 1Figure 1.1: USA Experienced a Moderate Recession by International Comparison...........................................1Figure 1.2: Mid-Year Swings in 2020 Real GDP Growth Eclipse Anything in Recent History .............................2Figure 1.3: Different Experiences in Percent Change in Spending by Sector .....................................................3Figure 1.4: Consumer Sentiment Index Registered a Record-Breaking Drop .....................................................3Figure 1.5: Twelve-Month Percent Change in Domestic Auto Sales ...................................................................5Figure 1.6 Unemployment Surged in 2020 ............................................................................................................7Table 1.1: Unemployment at the Monthly Level ....................................................................................................8Figure 1.7: Small Business Employment in the Hospitality Sector was Particularly Affected ............................9Figure 1.8: Google Search Trends Indicate Shift to Household Production (Jan 2020 = 100) ..........................10Figure 1.9: COVID-era Volatility in Historical Perspective ..................................................................................12Figure 1.10: Historical Price of WTI Crude Oil (USD) ..........................................................................................17
CHAPTER 2: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK ......................................................... 20Table 2.1: Spring Job Losses Across the Southeast ..........................................................................................23Figure 2.1: In April, Job Losses were Seen Across All Broad Sectors of the Tennessee Economy, but Leisure
and Hospitality was Hit the Hardest .............................................................................................................24Figure 2.2: Employment Gains in Most Tennessee Sectors Have Yet to Make up for the Spring Losses .......24Figure 2.3: Unemployment Rates Spiked in April, but Have Drifted Downward Since .....................................25Figure 2.4: Employment Among High and Middle Wage Workers in Tennessee are Nearly Back to Pre-Pandemic
(January 2020) Levels, While Employment Among Low Wage Workers is Still Severely Depressed ..............26Figure 2.5: Tennessee County Unemployment Rates, September 2020 ...........................................................27Figure 2.6: Growth in Weekly Business Applications .........................................................................................28Figure 2.7: Average Hourly Earnings in Tennessee Have Risen in Recent Years ..............................................29Figure 2.8: Per Capita Income Grew Across the Southeast Region in the Second Quarter of 2020 ..............30Figure 2.9: Tennessee Employment in Foreign Owned Companies...................................................................32Figure 2.10: Tennessee’s Top-5 Exports in 2019 .................................................................................................33Figure 2.11: Tennessee Exports Tumbled Through First Nine Months of 2020 .................................................33Figure 2.12: Tennessee Exports were Hit Hardest in its Two Largest Markets: Canada and Mexico ..............34Table 2.2: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted ......................................35Figure 2.13: Job Growth Stabilizes After a Tumultuous 2020 ............................................................................36Table 2.3: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ..................36Table 2.4. Tennessee Harvested Acres, Production, and Yield for Corn, Cotton,
Soybeans, and Wheat, 2015-2020* ..............................................................................................................40Table 2.5. Marketing Year Average Prices for Tennessee, 2015-2020* ..............................................................41Table 2.6. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports in FY 2019 and FY 2020:
Total and by Major Product Category ..........................................................................................................45Figure 2.14. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports in 2018 and 2019:
Top 10 Product Categories ...........................................................................................................................45Table 2.7. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports in FY 2019 and FY 2020
by Top 10 Partner Countries (Destinations) .................................................................................................46
CONTENTS
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | vii
Figure 2.15. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports (monthly): 2017-2020 ................................47 Table 2.8. Indicators of Financial Well-Being of the Tennessee Farm Sector, 2015-2019 ...............................48Table 2.9. Tennessee Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing, 2017 ..............................................................49Table 2.10. Direct and Multiplier Effects for Economic Activity, Employment,
and Total Value-Added for Selected Agriculture and Forest Industries in Tennessee, 2018 .....................50Table 2.11. Population, Household Income, Education Level, Unemployment,
and Poverty Across Rural County Status, Tennessee .................................................................................51Table 2.12. Tennessee Food and Beverage Industry PPP Loans, Loan Dollars, and Jobs Retained ..............52Table 2.13. Paycheck Protection Program Loans, Loan Amounts, and Jobs Retained
for Tennessee’s Nursery, Greenhouse, and Landscape Service Industries ...............................................52
CHAPTER 3: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: LONG-TERM OUTLOOK .......................................................... 58Table 3.1: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment in TN by Broad Sector (thousands of jobs) ...............................60Figure 3.1: Tennessee Will See Slow but Positive Manufacturing Employment Growth Over the Long Term
While the U.S. Manufacturing Sector Will See Labor Force Contractions .................................................61Figure 3.2: Nonfarm Job Growth Will See a Strong Post Pandemic Recovery Before Reverting Back to its
Slower Long Term Trend ...............................................................................................................................61Figure 3.3: Total Covered Employment Growth: March 2010 to March 2020 ....................................................63Figure 3.4: Total Private Manufacturing Employment Growth: March 2010 to March 2020 .............................63Figure 3.5: Following a Massive Spike in 2020, the Unemployment Rate will Trend Downward through the
Rest of the Long-Term Forecast Horizon .....................................................................................................64Figure 3.6: Unemployment Rates in August 2010 and August 2020 ..................................................................65Table 3.2: Birthrates in Tennessee Have Fallen For Women in Most Age Groups ............................................66Figure 3.7: Net Migration into Tennessee, a Crucial Component of Population Growth,
has Risen in Recent Years ............................................................................................................................67Figure 3.8: Educational Attainment Rates in Tennessee are Lower than the National Average ......................68Figure 3.9: Educational Attainment: Bachelor’s Degree or Higher .....................................................................69Figure 3.10: Median Earnings are Higher Among those with Higher Educational Attainment ........................70Figure 3.11: Unemployment Rates are Lower Among those with Higher Educational Attainment .................70Figure 3.12: In April, Unemployment Rates Rose Nationwide,
but the Spike was Much More Pronounced for Those with Lower Educational Attainment Levels .........71Figure 3.13: Obesity Rates Have Risen Faster in Tennessee ............................................................................72Figure 3.14: Smoking Rates in Tennessee Are Well Above the National Average,
But Have Fallen in Recent Years ..................................................................................................................72Figure 3.15: Fewer Tennesseans Have Health Care Coverage .........................................................................73Figure 3.16: More Tennesseans Are Living with Serious Health Conditions ....................................................73Figure 3.17: Per Capita Personal Income: 2010 to 2018 ....................................................................................75Figure 3.18: A Persistent Loss in Potential GDP for the State ..........................................................................76Table 3.3: Total and Manufacturing Business Establishments, 2010 and 2018................................................76
CONTENTS
viii | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
CHAPTER 4: COVID-19 AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY .......................................................................... 78Figure 4.1: The Bulk of Initial Job Losses Came From the Leisure and Hospitality Sector ..............................80Figure 4.2: Despite Positive Job Growth in Recent Months, Nonfarm Job Levels are Still Well Below their
Pre-Pandemic Peak ......................................................................................................................................81Figure 4.3: Monthly Job Gains Have Slowed Since June ...................................................................................81Figure 4.4: Employment in Most Tennessee Sectors has yet to Claw Back to Pre-Pandemic Levels .............82Figure 4.5: Unemployment Rates Spiked in the Spring, but have Largely Trended Downward Since.............83Figure 4.6: Despite a Declining Unemployment Rate, Long Term Unemployment is Rising Rapidly...............84Table 4.1: The Percentage of Permanent Job Losses Continues to Rise..........................................................84Figure 4.7: Tennessee County Unemployment Rates, March, April, and October 2020 ...................................85Figure 4.8: National Unemployment Rate by Gender – 16 Years and Older ......................................................87Figure 4.9: National Unemployment Rate by Race/Ethnicity – 16 Years and Older ..........................................87Figure 4.10: National Unemployment Rate by Age Bracket ...............................................................................88Figure 4.11: Unemployment was More Widespread Among Those with Lower Educational Attainment ........89Figure 4.12: Job Losses in Tennessee were More Severe and More Persistent Among Low Wage Workers 89Figure 4.13: Initial Claims Skyrocketed in the Spring but have Trended Downwards Since ............................90Figure 4.14: At the Onset of the Pandemic Nearly Half of All Initial UI Claims Came from the Leisure and Hos-
pitality Sector ................................................................................................................................................91Figure 4.15 Nine Months into the Pandemic Recession, Total Initial UI Claims are More Evenly Distributed
Across Sectors ..............................................................................................................................................91Figure 4.16: Continued UI Claims in Tennessee Have Come Down Considerably in Recent Weeks, But Still
Remain Well Above Historic Levels ..............................................................................................................92Figure 4.17: Continued UI Claims Still Heavily Lean Towards the Service Sectors ..........................................92Figure 4.18: While UI Claims Skyrocketed, Participation of Other Public Assistance Programs Saw Only
Modest Growth or went Unchanged During the Pandemic ........................................................................94Figure 4.19: Real and Nominal Tax Revenue Growth is Volatile, 1999 - 2020 ...................................................96Figure 4.20: Sales Tax Collections Fell in Many Categories but Rose in Many Others.....................................97Figure 4.21: Consumers have Shifted their Spending to Goods and away from Services ...............................97Figure 4.22: Tennessee Tax on New Remote Sellers has Risen Dramatically Since Economic Nexus went into
Effect ..............................................................................................................................................................98Figure 4.23: Local Sales Tax Revenue Growth Rates have Been Very Strong ..................................................99Figure 4.24: Housing’s Strength Apparent in Realty Transfer and Mortgage Taxes ........................................100Figure 4.25. Community and Technical College Enrollment is Normally Countercyclical, Rising During Eco-
nomic Downturns ........................................................................................................................................102Figure 4.26: Indexed Business Applications in Tennessee and the Nation During 2020 ................................104Figure 4.27: Business Applications Across Industries at the National Level ..................................................104Figure 4.28: Fiscal Aid through the CARES Act Provided Relief through Six Broad Channels ......................105Figure 4.29: Federal Funds Rate is Back Near Zero .........................................................................................106Figure 4.30: Fed Asset Holdings Skyrocketed in 2020 .....................................................................................107
FIGURES AND TABLES
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | ix
THE U.S. ECONOMY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The impact of COVID-19 is the key economic takeaway from 2020, and the detrimental effects will be remembered for a long time. The combination of reduced aggregate demand and government lockdowns resulted in record-breaking declines in our economy.
Real GDP is projected to fall by 3.5 percent for the 2020 year as a whole. This 3.5 percent reduction obscures the real ups-and-downs that households and businesses experienced throughout the year. The volatility was unprecedented on an historical scale. For twenty consecutive quarters prior to 2020, the annualized growth rate of GDP ranged between 0 and 5 percent. In contrast, it declined by 31.4 percent in the second quarter of 2020. The recovery was strong in third quarter, with growth of 33.1 percent, another record-breaking figure. If U.S. GDP fell off a cliff in the early part of 2020, it had largely climbed back up by year-end. Using this analogy, it would be wrong to conclude that the economy simply stood still. Close inspection of the numbers is needed to understand the full picture.
The President declared the spread of COVID-19 as a national emergency on March 13. State governors followed with lockdown orders throughout March and April, effectively shutting down large parts of the economy. Businesses closed and unemployment soared. The unemployment rate started the year below 4 percent. By April it had reached 14 percent. The labor market participation rate sank to its lowest level since 1973. Unemployment will end the year with an average rate of about 8 percent.
Just as the full-year GDP results hide the realities of the within-year changes, the overall employment numbers obscure the fact that the recession did not affect everyone equally. Some workers suffered more than others. The COVID-19 upheaval fell disproportionately on relatively low-earners. Employment for workers who earn less than $27,000 a year is still down over 20 percent compared to January. For higher wage workers – people earning at least $60,000 – employment had more than fully recovered from its dip by the end of November.
After years of steady wage growth, the arrival of COVID-19 devastated consumer confidence. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index registered a 22 point drop. That is the largest decline on record. When coupled with widespread lockdown orders, consumption plummeted. On an annualized basis, Personal Consumption Expenditures declined by 33.2 percent in Quarter 2. The declines were more severe in sectors like Hospitality and Entertainment, both of which contracted by more than 50 percent.
These declines were largely temporary. The improved public health conditions, the arrival of stimulus checks, and the gradual relaxation of the lockdown orders all served to bolster demand in Quarter 3. Per capita consumption grew by 40 percent. As growth in the latter part of the year came in the aftermath of historically unprecedented declines, it is not surprising that the two effects largely cancel out. Overall, consumption will fall by 3.9 percent in 2020. Compared to the within-year changes, this is a relatively modest decline.
Not all the economic news in 2020 was of destruction. Some sectors, notably those associated with working-from-home, benefited from the shifting nature of the economy. Information Processing Equipment such as computers grew by 37.7 and 60.8 percent in Quarters 2 and 3 respectively. Software sales will finish the year 27 percent higher than 2019.
Government stimulus efforts succeeded in averting a significantly worse crisis. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act and related measures injected $2 trillion into the economy. Households received Economic Impact Payments, which provided a married couple with two children up to $3,400 in direct cash assistance. The duration for unemployment benefits was extended, and supplemented by $600 per week for part of the year. Emergency loans were made available to businesses, and more than $600 billion was deployed to support the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Hospitals and local governments received $250 billion in coronavirus-related aid.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
x | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
THE U.S. ECONOMY, CONTINUED
The Short-Term Economic Outlook
Tennessee, the nation, and the world are currently in the grips of a health crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to widespread sickness and death and has upended the way we live, the way people work, businesses operate, students learn, and consumers spend. In the spring of 2020, the spread of COVID-19, coupled with efforts to slow its trajectory, resulted in a rapid onslaught of economic damage. Prior to the pandemic, the economy was enjoying the longest continuous economic expansion (10 years and 8 months) since the 1850s. The economic expansion ended in February, and the nation entered into its 33rd recession in March 2020.
The current recession, triggered by the pandemic, is unique in its breadth, depth, and rapidity. From March to April, nearly 400 thousands Tennesseans lost their jobs and the unemployment rate went from a record low 3.3 percent to a record high 15.5 percent in a one-month period. The economic impact would have likely been even
worse had it not been for federal stimulus provided through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) and aggressive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (the Fed), which provided enhanced UI benefits, loans, and stimulus checks to help keep (some) households afloat and struggling businesses from failing.
The short-term outlook calls for positive economic growth in the near-term as we dig out of the current recession, however, the recovery may be one of fits and starts as we continue to grapple with the virus. In the short-term, economic activity will largely depend on the trajectory of the virus, accompanying government responses (to control the virus or provide fiscal support), the development and deployment of a vaccine or vaccines, as well as the behavior of individuals across the state, nation, and world. The Tennessee forecast assumes that a vaccine will be made widely available in the U.S. by the middle of 2021, which will provide a boost to the economic recovery. New rounds of fiscal stimulus are also possible but the timing and size are so uncertain that it would
THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY
In total, government spending increased from 22 percent to 32 percent of GDP.
Stock markets had a very respectable year. Buoyed by the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates toward zero, the S&P 500 increased by 13 percent. This came after a year of substantial volatility in stock market valuations, with the extent of share price movements in the same ballpark as Black Monday in 1987 and the Great Crash of 1929.
The U.S. economy will see a continuation of recovery in 2021. The total value of goods and services bought and sold will reach $22 trillion. Overall, real GDP growth will average 3.1 percent for the year. The unemployment rate will continue to fall, dipping towards 5.0 percent in December. This economic growth will continue longer-term, modestly, with GDP growth of 2.5 percent predicted in 2022 and 2023. As a result, real GDP is projected to recover to its pre-pandemic peak by 2022.
As vaccinations eliminate public health risks and boost economic growth, increased spending will be the main driver of recovery. Consumers’ renewed confidence will see a shift in expenditure towards durable goods. After years of declines, sales of new cars will increase by 4.8 percent. Recovery of the food service and hospitality sectors will see services’ share of spending increase. Nonresidential Fixed Investment will grow by 3.4 percent. Ground will break on over 1 million new single-family homes, and house prices will increase by 5.4 percent.
The stimulus measures enacted in 2020 increased spending without accompanying tax increases. These increases will persist as national debt. The debt-to-GDP ratio currently exceeds 100 percent, and will continue to grow without substantial legislative attention. Stimulus measures should be targeted rather than broad-based, and aimed at boosting spending and increasing labor market participation.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | xi
be impossible to incorporate their effects into the short-term forecast.
Economic activity in Tennessee, as measured by inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP), is projected to fall by 3.5 percent in 2020 due to the pandemic and pandemic-related responses. A comparable decline in economic activity is projected for the nation as a whole. Expectations are that the trough of the recession occurred in April of 2020 and that the state economy will see positive growth going forward as we dig out from the spring low point. As a result, Tennessee real GDP will increase by 2.9 percent in 2021 and 3.6 percent in 2022. Tennessee real GDP is projected to surpass its pre-pandemic peak level by the end of 2022.
Tennessee nonfarm jobs will fall by 3.7 percent in 2020, representing a loss of 116 thousand jobs compared to the year prior. Tennessee’s labor market will fare better than the nation as a whole, where nonfarm jobs are projected to contract by 5.7 percent in 2020, representing a loss of 8.5 million jobs for the year as a whole. For both the state and the nation, the bulk of these losses occurred in the second quarter, when nonfarm jobs fell by 32.4 percent in Tennessee and 40.0 percent for the nation. Job growth has since turned positive. In Tennessee, nonfarm jobs grew by 18.8 percent in the third quarter and are projected to increase by 6.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Nonfarm jobs in Tennessee will continue to recover in 2021, with moderate growth in the first half of the year as the virus continues to shape the recovery, followed by stronger growth in the third and fourth quarter as vaccines are made widely available throughout the state and the nation. As a result, nonfarm jobs will increase by 2.2 percent in 2021 and 2.0 percent in 2022, but will not fully recover to pre-pandemic levels until the third quarter of 2023. However, some segments of the state economy will show scarring well past 2023. Employment in the state’s leisure and hospitality sector, one of the hardest hit by the pandemic, will not fully recover until 2024, and employment in the manufacturing sector is projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels throughout the decade, due to rising levels of uncertainty, and a
continued reliance on automation and advanced manufacturing. Even within the manufacturing sector, the recovery has been uneven, as factories that provide popular consumer goods have seen a surge in demand, while those relying on business-to-business sales continue to struggle.
As the labor market recovers, the state unemployment rate will trend downwards as well. Tennessee’s unemployment rate is expected to average 7.5 percent for the 2020 year as a whole, before quickly falling to 5.2 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022. The national unemployment rate is projected to follow a similar trajectory.
Nominal taxable sales will grow by a weakened 1.7 percent in 2020, as sales at eating and drinking places, and hotels and motels cratered in the spring. Depressed sales of in-person services were offset by strong sales growth among taxable goods, especially at food and liquor stores as well as home improvement and sporting goods stores. The collection of sales tax on online transactions also helped to keep taxable sales growth from turning negative in 2020. Taxable sales will grow at a much stronger rate of 4.7 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022.
Finally, nominal personal income is projected to increase by 4.2 percent in 2020, due solely to a boom in federal transfer payments (i.e. enhanced unemployment insurance benefits and stimulus checks), which expanded by an annual rate of 463.0 percent in Tennessee during the second quarter of 2020 (as compared to the previous quarter). State personal income growth will slow to 1.1 percent in 2021 as transfer payments normalize, but will still outpace national income growth, which is projected to fall by 1.4 percent in 2021. The national economy saw a much stronger uptick in federal transfer payments during the second quarter of 2020 (up 853.9 percent compared to the previous quarter), and therefore the subsequent decline in transfer payments will be much more severe, and will pull national income growth into the negative territory in 2021. Nominal personal income in Tennessee will grow at a more stable rate of 4.6 percent in 2022. On a fiscal year basis, nominal personal income in Tennessee will advance by 1.8 percent in FY20/21 and 3.3 percent in FY21/22.
THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY, CONTINUED
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
xii | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tennessee’s Agricultural & Forest Industries & Rural Industries
The agri-forestry industrial complex (farming/landowner through manufacturing) directly contributed (without multiplier effects) $51.5 billion in economic activity to the state’s economy, adding 181.3 thousand jobs in 2018. The agri-forestry industrial complex contributed $14.9 billion in value-added. When accounting for multiplier effects, the agri-forestry industrial complex added $79.3 billion to Tennessee’s economy or 10.9 percent of the state’s economic activity, accounting for 339.4 thousand jobs or 8.4 percent of all jobs. Agriculture, with multiplier effects, accounted for 8.1 percent of the state’s economy and generated $58.9 billion in output, adding close to 255,000 jobs, with over 95,000 employed (both full- and part-time) directly in agricultural production.
Farming operations occupy about 10.8 million acres in Tennessee, around 40 percent of the state’s nearly 27.0 million acres of land area. Average farm size is around 155 acres. In 2019, pre-pandemic, the value of farm production rose slightly from $4.20 in 2018 to $4.28 billion (USDA/ERS 2020e). Net farm income, however, rose markedly from $297 million in 2018 to $880 million in 2019, averaging $12,626 per operation.
Just under half Tennessee’s farmland is operated as cropland, with Tennessee’s four largest row crops being corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat. Based on 2019 national cash receipts by commodity, Tennessee ranks 17th in corn production ($498.1 million; 1.0 percent of U.S); 9th in cotton production ($291.6 million; 4.1 percent of U.S.); 16th in soybean production ($602.9 million; 1.8 percent of U.S.); and 18th in wheat production ($81.6 million; 0.9 percent of U.S.). In Tennessee, 2020 growing conditions varied across the state with improved spring planting conditions compared to 2019 but greater moisture variability after planting. Increased market uncertainty with COVID-19 and a low price environment favored increased planted acres of low input cost commodities, such as soybeans, over higher input cost commodities, such as corn or cotton. Looking
towards 2021, prices have improved compared to 2019/20; however, prices remain highly uncertain. Prices for 2020/21 will depend on export sales, domestic weather and planting conditions, South American crop progress, global weather, intensification/mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic, and global economic growth.
Animals and animal products accounted for 37.0 percent ($1.28 billion) of Tennessee’s agricultural receipts in 2019. Based on 2019 cash receipts, cattle and calves was the third largest agricultural sector in Tennessee with cash receipts totaling $487.7 million, which accounted for 14.1 percent of total agricultural cash receipts. The key issues impacting the 2020 animal and animal products markets have been associated with COVID-19, slaughter plant closures, and trade agreements. The pork sector has strong exports and will likely expand further if China continues to demand U.S. pork. However, the beef sector has little reason to expand in 2021, given the supply disruptions that COVID-19 caused throughout the industry. The poultry sector will likely be flat moving into 2021 and the dairy industry is unlikely to expand production nationally.
In 2020, direct payments were issued to producers that had been adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) authorized direct payments to producers in two stages. CFAP1 sign-up ended September 11, 2020. Total CFAP1 payments across all categories were over $132.6 million, with 21,223 applications (19,175 of these coming from livestock). Total CFAP2 payments were $124.2 million, with 19,792 applications. For CFAP2, the top five commodities receiving payments were: cattle ($39.6 million); corn ($24.1 million); soybeans ($19.9 million); sales commodities ($13.9 million); and cotton ($9.0 million).
Export markets are important to the financial health of Tennessee’s agricultural sector and trade has been impacted by both trade tensions with China and the EU and the COVID-19 pandemic. Tennessee’s agricultural and related exports were $1.9 billion in FY 2020, down $143 million or 7 percent when compared to the previous fiscal
THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY, CONTINUED
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THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY, CONTINUED
year. Exports of bulk agricultural commodities, which includes cotton, tobacco, and soybeans, were down $54 million or 7 percent; related product exports, which includes forest products and distilled spirits, were down 8 percent; consumer-oriented exports, which includes meat and dairy products as well as processed food products, were down 6 percent; and exports of intermediate products such as soybean meal and oil and other feeds were down 6 percent. U.S. agricultural trade outlook, in part, depends on China being able to satisfy its commitments under the Phase One Trade Agreement. According to the agreement, China will import $36.5 billion in U.S. agriculture in calendar year 2020.
Food and beverage industries in Tennessee beyond the farmgate have also been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. A national survey of small businesses showed that many food and fiber-related businesses experienced large negative impacts from the pandemic. In order to offset some of the pandemic’s impacts upon small businesses, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was passed and signed into law, and included the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), which is administered by the Small Business Administration through local lending institutions. The PPP is designed to assist small business owners with maintaining payrolls and other business operating expenses during the pandemic. From April 3 through the first week in August, a total of 8,175 food and beverage firms in Tennessee had approved loans to help cover payroll through the PPP. Reflecting the marked impacts of the pandemic upon these types of businesses, overall half of Tennessee’s food and beverage firms had PPP loans approved. Restaurants, bars, and specialty food services, which have been particularly impacted by the pandemic, represented 5,977 of these 8,175 food and beverage industry firms approved for PPP loans.
An additional concern is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a household’s current ability to obtain enough food, their food sufficiency, and households’ concerns regarding their ability to afford food in the near future.
Approximately 1 in 10 Tennessee households indicated they were food insufficient during the late April to early October time period. In late April, about one in seven food-insufficient households received free meals or groceries in the past week; by mid-July that had increased to one in three households and declined to approximately 13 percent of households in later weeks. School lunches and food pantries or banks were consistently two of the most-used sources of free foods. Compared to food-sufficient households, Tennessee’s food-insufficient households are more likely to have children, have an income below $35,000, and be unemployed. In late April, nearly 57 percent of food-insufficient households were not at all confident they could afford food in the next four weeks. Although this percentage declined over the summer, it increased to half of food insufficient households by early October.
The Long-Term Economic Outlook
Tennessee’s long-term outlook, which extends out to 2030, is based on a trend forecast which relies on key underlying economic forces such as population changes and labor force growth. For comparative purposes, Chapter 3 takes a retrospective look at economic growth between 2010 and the present.
Between 2010 and 2019, Tennessee advanced at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4 per year and slightly outpaced national output growth of 2.3 percent per year. Over the next ten years, state GDP is projected to increase by 2.3 percent per year, versus a projected 2.6 percent per year for the nation as a whole. Economic growth over the first few years of the new decade will be volatile due to the pandemic and eventual economic recovery, with a sharp contraction in real GDP in 2020 and then relatively strong positive growth in 2021 and 2022. After which, the state will settle into a more stable growth pattern, with compound annual growth of 2.1 percent per year from 2023 to 2030.
Nonfarm jobs in Tennessee are expected to increase by 1.3 percent per year between 2020 and 2030, versus 1.2 percent for the nation as a whole.
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THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY, CONTINUED
The year 2020 has been heavily defined by the COVID-19 pandemic and pandemic-related disruptions. As a result, the economic effects of COVID-19 have been previously discussed in Chapter 1, from a national perspective, and Chapter 2 from the state’s perspective. This chapter provides additional context for some of those topics, including a large focus on
how the labor market and state tax collections have been affected. In addition, we provide brief discussions on social assistance programs in Tennessee, trends in early-stage business formations, implications for education and learning during the pandemic, and temporary state policy changes enacted to provide greater flexibility to businesses and taxpayers during a
COVID-19 AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY
A relatively strong rate of employment growth is projected for 2021 and 2022 as jobs lost during the pandemic are added back to payrolls, while a more moderate pace of job growth is projected for the second half of the decade. Manufacturing employment in the state will be relatively flat over the ensuing decade, advancing by just 0.4 percent per year (CAGR) between 2020 and 2030. That number could be worse. By comparison, nationwide manufacturing employment will shrink by 0.2 percent per year (CAGR) as manufacturers continue to retool and rely more heavily on advanced manufacturing and automation. A strong outlook for Tennessee’s transportation equipment manufacturing sector will help keep manufacturing employment growth in positive territory for the state over the ensuing decade.
The unemployment rate, which has spiked during the pandemic, will quickly trend downwards over the next few years, as the economy continues to recover. The state’s annual average unemployment rate will rise to 7.5 percent in 2020 (a 4.1 percentage point increase compared to the 2019 annual average), but is projected to fall to 5.2 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022. As the job market continues to recover, the unemployment rate will fall at a slower rate, reaching 4.0 percent in 2025 before resting at 3.9 percent for the remainder of the decade.
In addition to providing a long-term economic outlook, this chapter pays particular attention to measures of workforce quality, such as education and health status. On average, more educated workers are more likely to
engage in the labor force, earn higher wages, and have the ability to purchase more goods and services, while healthier workers can work more intensely and generally miss fewer days of work. In general, however, Tennesseans have lower educational attainment rates and poorer health status than their national counterparts. The importance of health and education has become all the more apparent during the COVID-19 pandemic, as both have provided buffers to some of the pandemic’s adverse effects. For the population as a whole, pandemic-related job losses were less widespread among those with higher education levels, and better health status has been linked to a lower likelihood of severe COVID-19 symptoms. These issues highlight areas where improvements could have a positive impact on long-term economic growth. On the education-front, the state has been very proactive with ambitious initiatives such as the Drive to 55 and the Tennessee Promise. These initiatives are significant steps in the right direction for improving educational attainment in the state, and if sustained could have a positive impact on long-term economic growth. Regarding health status, the state has consistently lagged the nation and has not shown much improvement. Despite poor health metrics, Tennessee has still been a strong economic force over the last decade. However, these metrics reveal areas where the state can improve. And gains in both healthcare and health outcomes could lead to a stronger, healthier, and more productive workforce in Tennessee.
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time of heightened uncertainty. We also turn to the national economy to discuss key aspects of the aggressive stimulus actions taken by the federal government, including through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) and monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (the Fed).
Tennessee’s labor market was hit hard by the pandemic, as the state economy lost nearly 400 thousand jobs in a one-month period between March and April. Weekly data on unemployment insurance (UI) claims paint a similarly bleak picture, as new claims rose more than 14-fold between the second and third week of March, from 2,702 to an astounding 38,077. This was nearly 25 percent higher than the Great Recession peak, and it was only the beginning. The following week, new UI claims in Tennessee grew to 92,500, and then peaked at 112,186 during the first week of April. For perspective, between mid-March and mid-November, a span of 36 weeks, more than 915 thousand initial UI claims were filed in Tennessee. By comparison, there were roughly 790 thousand new UI claims filed during the entirety of the Great Recession, which lasted 81 weeks.
New UI claims have come down over the ensuing months, as the economy recovers from the initial spring shock, but new claims remain well above pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, nationwide long-term unemployment (unemployed for 27 weeks or more) continues to rise, suggesting that a large portion of the unemployed population has likely already exhausted all of their UI benefits.
Since April, the state economy has seen positive month-over-month job growth but there were still 131 thousand fewer jobs in October than there were in February. Furthermore, job gains have slowed considerably since the early parts of the summer, and the recovery thus far, has not been evenly distributed. Economic activity in the state’s service sectors, such as leisure and hospitality, which took the brunt of the initial job losses, is still weak, and while employment levels among higher wage workers, especially
those who can work from home, has nearly recovered, employment levels among lower wage workers is still severely depressed. Using national data, we also show that some subpopulations faced a far harsher labor market shock than others; in particular, females, Black and Hispanic workers, and younger workers.
The chapter also provides an in-depth review of state tax collections during the pandemic. Unlike in previous recessions, state sales tax revenues remained relatively strong during the pandemic, as consumers dramatically shifted their spending patterns in completely different ways than in previous economic downturns. Most notably, consumers have spent far less on in-person services, many of which are not sales-taxable in the state, and have diverted much of their spending to the purchase of goods, which are taxable. In addition, two recent Tennessee legislative changes surrounding the collection of sales taxes on online transactions have provided a boost to state sales tax growth. First, Tennessee enacted economic nexus legislation to require larger remote vendors to begin collecting and remitting sales tax. Second, Tennessee enacted legislation requiring marketplace facilitators, such as Amazon and eBay, to collect taxes on all sales into Tennessee. These legislative changes have been particularly important for tax revenues as trends towards online purchasing accelerated during the pandemic. This section also provides a brief overview of how state-level corporate taxes, motor vehicle taxes, and realty mortgage and transfer tax collections have fared through the pandemic thus far.
The chapter concludes by noting that the state economy has proven to be incredibly resilient, as jobs and economic activity have rebounded relatively quickly from their April lows. However, both are still below pre-pandemic peak levels, and a surging virus puts the economic recovery on shaky ground. We also reemphasize that while aggregate economic indicators point to a recovery, there are still a number of sectors, businesses, individuals, and families that are still facing dire economic conditions.
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The U.S. Economy | CHAPTER 1
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CHAPTER 1: THE U.S. ECONOMY
1.1. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW
In this Chapter —
1.1. The U.S. Economy: Year in Review Introduction Consumption Effects of Lockdown Orders Effects of Economic Impact Payments The Labor Market A Point on Percentages and Annualized
Rates Time-Use Investment and Interest Rates Federal Budget and Stimulus Efforts International Trade Productivity & Wages
1.2. The U.S. Forecast Consumption The Labor Market Investment and Interest Rates International Trade Government Budget Inflation&Prices The Housing Market
1.3. Alternative Scenarios
1.4. References
Introduction
History will record 2020 as a year of massive economic upheaval. The 330 million people living in the United States will remember COVID-19 as a source of unprecedented disruption to their lives. While this Report focuses on economic impacts, Americans will not forget the many people who sadly passed during the pandemic.
The economic consequences of COVID-19 were felt worldwide. After multiple years
of consistently positive growth, all major economies fell into recession in 2020. Right across the globe, from the U.S. to Europe to Japan, and exacerbated by the fact that the global economy is so deeply interconnected, developed countries saw growth rates in negative territory. The United States fared relatively well in comparison, with inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) expected to decline about 3.5 percent in the year. Consider Figure 1.1, comparing real GDP growth across
Figure 1.1: USA Experienced a Moderate Recession by International Comparison
Source: OECD
-10
-5
0
5
GDP
Gro
wth
(%)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
USA Euroarea JapanSource: OECD
Figure 1.1: USA experienced a moderate recession by international comparison
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large economies. Europe, for example, saw a drop in output closer to 8 percent.
However, aggregate measures do not capture the enormity of within-year volatility. To understand the full extent of disruption, one needs to look at the data in a granular fashion. Economic activity largely paused from mid-March, with widespread re-openings following in the latter half of the year. The recovery, boosted by the fiscal stimulus provided by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act), was large enough to cancel out many of the temporary losses. The magnitude of these changes is captured in Figure 1.2. Note that the vertical axis is out of proportion with dominant long-run values, showing the historic nature of the reset.
The real GDP growth figures from Quarter 1 through Quarter 3, namely -5.0 percent, -31.4 percent, 33.1 percent, are by far the most volatile in the United States’ history. The stop-start nature of the year is unprecedented compared to other large economic events. For example, the largest quarterly real GDP drop during the Great Recession was -8.4 percent, less than one-third of the change seen in this year’s figures. Further, the volatility was not isolated to a single sector or industry. Almost all
subcomponents of real GDP experienced this see-saw pattern in Quarters 2 and 3. We provide more on how to interpret annualized changes in Section 1.1, A point on percentages and annualized rates.
Consumption
Personal consumption expenditures, such as regular purchases by people at the store, are the largest component of GDP. When added together, and including services, spending on goods and services comprise more than two-thirds of U.S. economy. This has been true for over twenty years.
After adjusting for inflation, overall spending will end the year 3.9 percent lower than the prior year. Overall, per capita consumption declined by 4.3 percent in 2020. However, it is an understatement to say that these consumption patterns had a bumpy ride in 2020. Personal Consumption Expenditure fell 6.9 percent in quarter 1, plummeted to a record-breaking 33.2 percent decline during the worst of the recession in quarter 2, recovered strongly in the third quarter (40.7 percent) to largely correct for that dramatic decline, and are projected to make moderate gains
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS.
-40
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0
20
40
%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS
Figure 1.2: Mid-year swings in 2020 real GDP growth eclipse anything in recent historyFigure 1.2: Mid-Year Swings in 2020 Real GDP Growth Eclipse Anything in Recent History
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1.1. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED
Source: Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker.
-100
-50
0
50
100
Feb 1 Apr 1 Jun 1 Aug 1 Oct 1
Grocery Restaurants and Hotels Entertainment & Rec.Source: Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker
Figure 1.3: Different experiences in percent change in spending by sectorFigure 1.3: Different Experiences in Percent Change in Spending by Sector
Source: IHS.
75
80
85
90
95
100
Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020Source: IHS
Figure 1.4: Consumer sen�ment index registered a record-breaking dropFigure 1.4: Consumer Sentiment Index Registered a Record-Breaking Drop
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1.1. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED
(3.4 percent) in the final months of the year.As the economy is so tightly connected
to consumer spending, a year of tumultuous economic activity will be largely driven by changes in consumption patterns. The second quarter reduction in consumption was responsible for more than half of the projected 3.5 percent overall decline in real GDP for the 2020 year as a whole.
These changes were unevenly distributed throughout the economy. With widespread stay-at-home orders and increased concern about community transmission of the virus, certain sectors were more adversely affected than others.
We have already mentioned that consumption includes both goods (like food, or cars) and services (like trips to the movie theater). As a statistical matter, the Census Bureau further distinguishes between durable and non-durable goods. The distinction may seem quite obvious – non-durable goods cannot be stored – but the experience of 2020 encourages a further note on this. Food purchased at the grocery store is storable and thus registers as a durable good. Food purchased at a restaurant and intended for immediate consumption is counted as a Service. In contrast, meals purchased from a restaurant but ordered “to go” are considered non-durable goods. As COVID-era shutdowns shifted eating habits away from restaurants and towards remote dining, these distinctions are important in understanding the 2020 figures.
As with much of the economy, consumer sentiment fell dramatically in the second quarter of the year. The onset of the pandemic saw the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which uses sentiment in 1996 as a baseline of 100, drop over 22 points. This is the largest drop on record, bringing sentiment to levels not seen since the aftermath of the Financial Crisis. Although sentiment recovered slightly in Quarter 4, it remains at a substantially lower level than at any point in the past five years.
As working from home became a prominent feature of the world economy, durable goods saw an increase in importance in 2020. According to the Survey of Business Uncertainty fielded by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 27 percent of full-time employees will continue to at least
partially work from home after the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, then, purchases of Furnishings and other durable household equipment grew by 5.3 percent in 2020, beating even the prior year’s growth of 3.4 percent.
The home-working phenomenon was also reflected in a surge in sales of Information Processing Equipment such as computers, growing by 37.7 percent and 60.8 percent in Quarters 2 and 3 respectively. Sales of Consumer Software will end the year up by over 27 percent. The remarkable performance of these subcomponents will see the sales of Durable Goods increase in value by 6.3 percent over the year.
Nondurable goods were more insulated from the change in spending habits. The share of expenditure classified as Nondurable grew from 20.5 percent to 21.4 percent. This 0.9 percent growth exactly matches the performance of off-premises Food & Beverages, growing from 7.1 percent of personal expenditure to 8.0 percent.
Indeed, some components like food intended for preparation and consumption at home, benefitted. As shown in Figure 1.3, grocery stores have had a good year.
However, the excellent performance in sectors boosted by working from home came at the expense of others. This was particularly true for transport-related sectors, most notably the auto industry. Figure 1.5 shows the sales of new, domestically produced cars relative to the prior month in 2019. We see car dealerships had an extremely challenging year, with monthly sales down by more than 40 percent in March, April, May, and June. Although there will be some recovery next year – a growth rate of 4.8 percent is forecast for 2021 – new automobiles will close out 2020 with sales projected to be down by over 18 percent. This had a knock-on effect in the secondary market, with purchases of used automobiles also down (by 9.7 percent).
The clearest decline in spending was experienced not in goods but in Services, the largest single component of consumption. Just as consumption is a little over two-thirds of the economy, Services comprises 67.2 percent of consumption. In 2020, spending on Services are
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1.1. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED
projected to fall by 1.8 percentage points, driven by declines in Healthcare expenditure (down 8.1 percent), Transport services (down 22 percent), Food services (down 16.5 percent), and Hotels and Accommodation (down 44.5 percent). Almost all of the decline can be attributed to COVID-related fears.
The extent to which reductions in consumption were caused by rational avoidance behavior versus lockdown orders will be wrestled with in the years to come. While it may be natural to blame government lockdowns for declines in spending, it is not clear how much of the decline would have happened by consumers simply responding themselves.
One paper published in the Review of Asset Pricing Studies by economist Scott Baker and co-authors provides some of the first evidence on immediate consumptions responses to COVID-19. The researchers had access to transaction-level data for all users of a financial services app. These data were used to measure how spending habits changed as evidence of COVID-19 emerged. Consistent with stock-piling behavior, spending was 40 percent higher in late February and early March relative to the weeks prior. Stock-piling
essentially shifts consumption forward in time: as the virus spread, spending fell by 25 percent. However, the authors find that the overall drop in spending was twice as large in states which issued shelf-in-place orders, and that the increase in grocery spending is three times as large for states with these orders.
However, this finding alone is not enough to conclude that the shelter-in-place orders caused the reduction in spending. In particular, the states that issued these orders were also worse hit by the virus in the spring. Thus we cannot disentangle policy-generated declines from fear-induced declines unless we look at a finer geographic unit. As a hypothetical example, suppose Knoxville and Knox County implemented different shut-down orders. We could then contrast the fortunes of businesses either side of the city-county line to investigate the effects of the different orders.
Effects of Lockdown Orders
Drilling down consumption patterns to a fine geographic unit is addressed in a paper by economists Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, both at the University of Chicago. Analyzing cell
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0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Figure 1.5: Twelve-month percent change in domes�c auto salesFigure 1.5: Twelve-Month Percent Change in Domestic Auto Sales
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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1.1. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED
phone data on customer visits to over 2 million businesses, they use a clever strategy to disentangle the effects of lockdowns versus the effects of consumer avoidance behavior. The idea is to look at consumer behavior in the same metropolitan area but across boundaries with different policy responses to the pandemic.
The overall decline in consumer traffic during the height of the pandemic was very large. Visits to businesses fell by 60 percentage points overall. Comparing jurisdictions that implement different pandemic restrictions, the economists found that lockdown orders did indeed make the drop in traffic worse. However, the relative decline is quite small. The authors report that legal restrictions can only explain 7 percentage points of the 60 percentage point drop.
Effects of Economic Impact Payments
In part to counteract the negative effects of shutdown orders, the Federal government passed a large fiscal stimulus in March to boost consumption. One of the primary strategies to kick-start the economy were the Economic Impact Payments, checks and direct deposits of up to $1,200 made to most adults in the country with an additional $500 for every child under 17 years old. The amounts provided were substantial, for example a married couple with two children would receive up to $3,400. The first stimulus payments were made on April 9 via direct deposit. For individuals opting for paper checks rather than direct deposit, the payments came some weeks later.
The effects of these stimulus payments have been studied by economists. Scott Baker of Northwestern University and co-authors – the same team whose research we discussed above – also released a paper examining the effects of receiving the Federal cash payments. The results are very intuitive. There is a sharp increase in the immediate arrival of the stimulus payment. From a baseline of under $100 per day, average spending per day increases to $150 the day of receipt and over $200 for the two days after receipt. Within ten days of receiving the stimulus
check, consumers had spent 30 cents of every dollar they received.
There are important differences in how people spent this money. Research on the 2008 stimulus checks has shown households responding by increasing spending on durable goods. In contrast, the largest spending categories for the 2020 stimulus checks included food and rental payments. Spending on durable goods was modest in comparison.
There are also important differences in how rich versus poorer households spent the stimulus checks. The amount of liquid wealth a consumer has affected how quickly they spent the stimulus check. For individuals with less than $500 in their account, they spend over one-third (36 percent) of the stimulus payments within ten days. For individuals with at least $3,000 in their account, there are almost no immediate changes in spending.
If stimulus packages are intended to kick-start the economy through increased spending, the results in this paper imply that payments should be targeted towards relatively poorer households.
The Labor Market
The magnitude of change people in the labor market experienced in 2020 was unprecedented on an historical scale. It is difficult to overstate the level of volatility seen in unemployment.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Monthly Employment Situation release for April 2020 summarizes the extent of the harm. The unemployment rate increased by more than ten percentage points in April alone. The increase from 4.4 percent to 14.7 percent is all the more stark considering the several years of stability, as demonstrated in Figure 1.6. One year prior, in April 2019, 5.85 million people in the United States were unemployed. The initial effects of COVID-19 were detectable in March 2020, when the number of unemployed people rose to 7.14 million. The surge to 14.7 percent unemployment in just one month was the largest increase on record. It represents job losses for almost 16 million people.
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1.1. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED
The 16 million people who lost their jobs were distributed throughout the economy. Leisure and hospitality employment fell by 47 percent. In the bar and restaurant sector, 5.5 million people lost their jobs. Employment in the retail sector fell by 2 million, manufacturing by 1.3 million, and construction by 0.98 million. Even employment in dental offices, a relatively niche part of the economy, fell by 0.5 million.
The loss of jobs in April perhaps understates the effects of the recession on employment because there was a simultaneous drop in labor force participation. The labor force participation rate measures people working and people seeking work. In addition to the 16 million job losses, the number of people reported as `Not in the labor force’ fell by 6.5 million people. The labor force participation rate, at 60.2 percent, fell to its lowest level since 1973.
Paradoxically, average wages increased in April 2020. This is because lower-paid workers were disproportionately affected by the recession. As a simple mathematical fact, twenty percent of workers have wages in the bottom twenty percentiles of the earnings distribution. For the sectors most affected by COVID-19
recession (e.g. Restaurants and Bars, Travel and Transportation, Entertainment), 54 percent of workers had wages in the bottom twenty percentiles. In other words, the sectors most affected by COVID-19 were more than twice as likely to be relatively low-paying sectors. The workers in these sectors are also the least likely to have substantial rainy-day savings.
As indicated by Figure 1.6 depicting the unemployment rate, the economy started to recover in the aftermath of the April results. Expected to average out at 8.1 percent for the year, the unemployment rate has fallen to 6.9 percent at the time of writing. This remains stubbornly high, particularly for some groups: the unemployment rate remains 9.8 percent for those with less than a high school diploma, more than double the 4.2 percent for those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher. Although it has recovered from April, the number of people not in the labor force remains nearly 5 million higher than twelve months previously.
While the analysis of the April figures highlights the magnitude of the recession, Table 1.1 shows how the labor market has been improving. The picture is mixed. The number
Unemployment rate (%)
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020Source: Bureau of Labor Sta�s�cs
Figure 1.6 Unemployment surged in 2020Figure 1.6 Unemployment Surged in 2020
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20
Unemployment Level 5,892 5,787 7,140 23,078 20,985 17,750 16,338 13,550 12,580 11,061
Total Job Losers 2,665 2,723 3,946 20,626 18,291 14,272 12,924 10,307 9,135 7,712
On temporary layoff 742 801 1,848 18,063 15,343 10,565 9,225 6,160 4,637 3,205
Permanent 1,289 1,279 1,456 2,000 2,295 2,883 2,877 3,411 3,756 3,684
Temporary job completed 634 644 643 563 653 824 823 736 742 823
As Percentage of Total Unemployed
On temporary layoff 12.6% 13.8% 25.9% 78.3% 73.1% 59.5% 56.5% 45.5% 36.9% 29.0%
Permanent 21.9% 22.1% 20.4% 8.7% 10.9% 16.2% 17.6% 25.2% 29.9% 33.3%
Table 1.1: Unemployment at the Monthly Level
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Levels data are in thousands
A point on percentages and annualized rates
As the economic statistics for 2020 are so unusual, it is important to understand exactly what these
figures mean. This section of the Report is designed to avoid confusion about percentages, percentage
points, and annualized growth rates.
Firstly, let us consider the difference between ten percent and ten percentage points. Imagine
you are advising a Congressional candidate, and the candidate received 45 percent of the votes in the
previous election. A ten percent increase from 45 percent will add 4.5 points, leaving the candidate with
49.5 percent of the vote. That is just short of a majority. In contrast a ten percentage point increase will
see the candidate return 55 percent of the vote, comfortably being elected. These differences can be
more stark depending on the baseline. A 20 percent increase for a candidate who previously received 5
percent of the vote will still only have 6 percent of the vote. It is important to understand the difference
between percent and percentage points.
A related phenomenon occurs when annualizing quarterly growth rates. Imagine a citizen starts the
year with a bank balance of $100, and after three months it has risen to about $102. As the time passed
has only been three months, that $2 increase needs to be adjusted to be interpreted as an annualized
rate. Loosely speaking, if a bank account increases by $2 every three months it will increase by $8
over one year. In other words, when spread over the full twelve months of the year, the 2 percent gain
extrapolates to an annual interest rate of about 8 percent.
Extrapolation assumes that the change is representative of the rest of the year. For interest on a
bank account, this is a reasonable assumption. The interest rate might change slightly from month to
month, but it is unlikely to be a large change.
Extrapolating growth rates is more controversial, and perhaps unrepresentative, in the context of a
shock event like the COVID-19 recession. The total amount of economic activity recorded in Q2 of 2020
was approximately 8.5 percent lower than the same quarter in 2019. Extrapolating that to a full year
concludes the annualized growth rate for that quarter of about -33 percent. This annualized growth rate
indicates how bad the recession would be had it lasted four quarters, not that the economy actually
contracted by 33 percent.
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1.1. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED
of people unable to find a job in October (11.1 million) is still about twice as high as in January. However, it is also less than half as many as in April. A worrying trend that will be of concern to policymakers is the extent of permanent unemployment. As recently as January, a little over one-in-five (21.9 percent) people on unemployment were listed as long-term or permanently unemployed. That implies unemployment was a short-term issue for the other four-in-five. These numbers have deteriorated. The number of people unemployed has increased, and the share of those listed as permanently unemployed has grown to one-in-three (33.3 percent). Ensuring these people do not fall through the cracks of the system, and that they ultimately successfully re-enter gainful employment, should be a policy priority.
The Opportunity Insights think-tank, a research organization led by economists at
Harvard and Brown University, has made real-time employment indicators available on their Economic Tracker website. While the Federal government typically releases official statistics at a monthly or quarterly frequency, real-time private sector data can provide insight into employment dynamics in the interim.
At the time of writing, real-time employment reports are providing signs of further deterioration. Figure 1.7 plots small business employment, with a particular focus on the Leisure and Hospitality sector. We see that employment within these firms fell by almost one-half in April, but made substantial gains before June. Unfortunately the latest employment outlook, albeit provisional, indicates another reduction in the sector. These are initial indications of further economic contractions, and reinforce the importance of improved consumer sentiment.
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Figure 1.7: Small business employment in the hospitality sector was par�cularly affectedFigure 1.7: Small Business Employment in the Hospitality Sector was Particularly Affected
Source: Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker.
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Time-Use
Households change their behavior in response to economic shocks. For example, people reduce
their spending and seek part-time work if they become unemployed. These responses can help insulate
households from the full consequences of a recession.
One feature of Gross Domestic Product is that it measures the value of goods and services sold in
an economy. In other words, it does not measure non-market transactions. For example, a home-cooked
meal certainly delivers benefits to the family that consumes it. However, the time devoted to preparing
and cooking the food is not captured in any measure of GDP. In this respect, GDP can understate the
economic well-being of a country.
As a consequence of the double-whammy of business closures and reduced hours in employment,
people had more free time to spend at home in 2020. Households’ decisions in response to COVID-19
had to include how to spend this additional free time. There are formal measures of how people spend
their day, such as the American Time Use Survey. These surveys are typically released the year after
collection, and will in due course provide greater understanding into how the average American day
evolved over the pandemic.
In the interim, researchers have used less formal methods to gain insight into how people have
spent their time. One popular metric is Google searches. The reasoning behind this measure is that many
households will perform Google searches to learn about new activities. Figure 1.8 below provides one
such figure.
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Gardening Online classes BreadSource: Google Trends.
Figure 1.8: Google search trends indicate shi� to household produc�on (Jan 2020 = 100)Figure 1.8: Google Search Trends Indicate Shift to Household Production (Jan 2020 = 100)
Source: Google Trends.
Continued on Page 11
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1.1. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED
Investment and Interest Rates
Investment is the second largest component of GDP. Of the projected $20.9 trillion generated by the U.S. economy in 2020, $3.6 trillion (17 percent) will be investment. This is down $185 billion on the prior year.
As with consumption, the relatively modest annual change hides enormous within-year variation. Nonresidential Fixed Investment, which is principally the investment done by businesses rather than consumers, declined by 6.7 percent and 27.2 percent in the first two quarters of the year, before recovering by 20.3 in the third quarter and a projected 3.1 percent in the fourth. The volatility of Residential Investment was even more severe: an immediate rebound of 59.3 percent followed a decline of 35.6 percent in Quarter 2. In total,
Nonresidential Fixed Investment will fall by 4.8 percent for the year as a whole, matched by a 4.8 percent rise in the Residential component. However as Nonresidential Fixed Investment ($2.8 trillion) is more than three times as large as Residential ($874 billion), overall investment will decline.
The investment figures were not uniformly bad. Given the work-from-home phenomenon, investment in Computers increased by 16 percent through 2020. This is reflected in the increase in the market value of Microsoft, currently trading at about $215 per share, up from $150 in December 2019. The largest headline figure in investment decline was in Aircraft. Boeing’s continued regulatory difficulties with the 737 MAX, coupled with the decreased demand for air travel in general, saw aviation investment decline by 48 percent. This should be temporary. Improved conditions
The COVID-19 crisis saw a huge increase in searches for what economists call “home production”,
activities done at home that could be provided in the marketplace. Figure 1.8 plots the trends for three
Google searches related to home production. The base level of 100 is set to the start of the year, so
a level of 200 indicates twice as many searches as compared to January 2020. Searches for “Bread”
more than doubled during March. This supports the anecdotal reports of shortages of flour and yeast in
grocery stores as people switched to home-baking. “Gardening”, too, became much more popular, with
more than four times as many searches in April than in January. Households shifted from consuming food
in restaurants to making their own meals; and spent spare time in the garden. These activities do bring
benefits to households that could be purchased in an open market, but are not generally measured by
GDP if produced by the household themselves.
For parents whose children attend schools that closed, the shift to home-production was acute.
Approximately 55 million K-12 students experienced some form of closure to their school year. In
addition to providing regular childcare, many households were effectively forced into home-schooling.
This is reflecting in the increase in searches for “Online classes”, which more than doubled in late March
compared to earlier in year.
Academics have studied this switch to online learning and found fascinating results. Economists at
Boston University and the RAND Corporation looked at Google Trends data for a variety of home-school
related searches like “online learning”, “math worksheet”, and “Khan Academy”. In addition to noting the
nationwide increase in homeschool-related searches, they look at the differences across richer versus
poorer areas. They note the somewhat unfortunate result that homeschool-related searches increased
twice as much in areas with above-average income and educational attainment areas compared to
below-average income and educational attainments areas. This may widen socioeconomic performance
gaps in education, and be a lasting impact of COVID.
Continued from Page 10
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1.1. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED
in the travel industry next year, and the Federal Aviation Administration’s November approval of the return of the 737 MAX to service, means aviation investment will sky-rocket by a projected 74 percent next year.
An underappreciated element of investment is inventory management. Historically this is the margin that many firms, which cannot expand production by hiring new works and purchasing new premises overnight, use to respond to a changing economic environment. Nonfarm inventories will decline by $78 billion this year, following growth of $65 billion and $64 billion in the two prior years, and the first decline recorded since 2009. This will provide a 0.6 percentage point drag on real GDP growth.
In total, household finances largely improved in 2020. The savings rate (as a percent of disposable income) will sharply increase, from 7.6 percent to 15.7 percent. The saving rate is not just the highest in recent memory it is more than twice the average over the past decade. Mortgage Debt as a fraction of disposable income declined from 68.2 to 66.4 percent, and Real net worth increased by 7 percent, which is above-average for the past decade. On the less fortunate side of things, 640 thousand people filed for bankruptcy, but that is the lowest figure in over a decade.
The stock market had a positive year overall. Expectations that the COVID-19 recession was a temporary blip meant share prices rose overall. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 is up over 13
percent on its year-opening level. However, stocks too, had a tumultuous year. Share prices dropped dramatically in February and again in March, before eventually making up lost ground by August. The extent of this volatility rivals famous historical events. Figure 1.9 shows that the stock market volatility associated with the COVID-19 exceeded the 2008 Financial Crisis. While not quite reaching the same extremes, the COVID-19 volatility is in the same ballpark as Black Monday in 1987 and the Great Crash of 1929.
Federal Budget and Stimulus Efforts
The Federal deficit measures how much more the United States’ government spends relative to what it collects in taxes and other sources of revenue. Previous Economic Reports to the Governor expressed concern that deficits were large and growing, such as the increased deficit from $587 billion in 2016 to $984 billion last year, even at a time of low unemployment and high growth. As a result of declining revenues and increased spending from stimulus measures, the Federal deficit will more than triple, and exceed $3.1 trillion, in 2020. Although revenues did decline slightly, the increase in deficit is almost exclusively from the expansion in government spending: in just one year, government expenditure will increase from 22 percent to 32 percent of GDP.
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, better known as the CARES Act,
Figure 1.9: COVID-era Volatility in Historical Perspective
Source: Baker et al (2020).
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Volatility Lasts Two Weeks (1900-2020)
Great Crash 10-11/1929
Great Depression 3/1933
Black Monday10/1987
Global Financial Crisis 12/2008
Coronavirus Pandemic 3/2020
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1.1. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED
was enacted on March 27. It was a large stimulus package, with the Congressional Budget Office anticipating it will increase federal deficits by $1.7 trillion, comprising $1 trillion in mandatory outlays; $326 billion in discretionary outlays; and $400 billion in decreases in revenues like tax cuts. The necessity for government intervention to support the economy was widely accepted. The Act passed the Senate unanimously.
Although the Act provides financial assistance that totaled more than $2 trillion, the projected cost was somewhat diminished because not all of the loan guarantees are anticipated to be a cost to the budget. Hospitals and local governments were allocated $250 billion; aid to households amounted to $750 billion, and ultimately more than $1 trillion was allocated to businesses.
The aid to businesses under Title IV of the Act contained two elements. The first was a $500 billion appropriation to the Department of Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). The ESF was initially established in the aftermath of the Great Depression and thus has a long history of assisting stabilization policy. Almost $50 billion of this money was earmarked to assist three specific industries. Chief among them was aviation, with $25 billion to passenger air travel companies like Delta and United, and $4 billion to air cargo companies. Treasury was permitted to make loans and loan guarantees up to a further $17 billion to businesses considered critical to national security. The remaining $454 billion was available to fund emergency lending facilities established by the Federal Reserve.
More prominent than the Title IV provisions were the business supports enacted by Title I. An initial $349 billion was made available for loans to small corporations through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The PPP required businesses certify that the money would be used “to retain workers and maintain payroll or make mortgage payments, lease payments, and utility payments.” As long as companies did not reduce the number of workers, the loan would be forgiven. In this sense, the PPP had elements more resembling a grant rather than a loan.
JP Morgan Chase (JPMC) reported receiving
60,000 applications within the first five minutes of the program opening. The initial money ran out two weeks later, at which stage JPMC had ultimately approved 27,000 applications. The first round of funding ran dry on April 16. This precipitated an eleven-day waiting period, until April 27, when Congress added another $300 billion to the PPP.
A paper by economists at Harvard and the University of Illinois investigated the effects of the PPP. They find limited employment effects but that loans did lead to an increase in a business’ expected survival. The estimates are imprecise, noting a PPP loan increased survival probability by between 14 and 30 percentage points, but still substantial even under the lower part of that estimate.
Given that the PPP ultimately deployed more than $600 billion within four months, it is worth asking how effective the program was at protecting paychecks. A paper by economists at Chicago and MIT found the short- and medium-term employment effects were small compared to the size of the program. Further, the authors “find no evidence that funds flowed to areas that were more adversely affected by the economic effects of the pandemic.” We note that poor targeting was somewhat inevitable given the rushed nature of the policy response. It would therefore be prudent for policymakers to have considerable pre-recession plans in place prior to an economic fallout.
Rather than go to supporting additional hours for workers during the shut-down, a reasonable question is where the money went. The researchers find the PPP allowed firms to ensure liquidity and meet non-payroll spending commitments. Although this implies the immediate effects were not to expand payrolls, it may have prevented companies from shutting down completely. If true, this means firms are more likely to employ workers in the long run.
One silver lining of the recession has been the unexpected boost to sales tax revenue of smaller local governments. Consumers’ shift towards online retail has reduced high-street sales (and therefore sales tax revenues) in major cities, but some of this has been redirected to the smaller rural and suburban counties.
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Local sales taxes paid at the register typically become revenue for the county the store is physically located in. An exception to this rule is online commerce. In general, retailers like Amazon or Wayfair remit sales tax revenue to the county the consumer is located in, i.e. the county the good is delivered to, rather than where the website has its headquarters or warehouses, i.e. where the good is purchased from.
The current pandemic has increased online business. Many people who used to travel from neighboring counties to a local downtown hub are now purchasing online. This redirects the sales tax from the downtown city government, to the government the consumer lives in.
Although this is a national phenomenon, it can be well illustrated with examples close to home. Knox County collected $16.9 million in sales taxes in May of 2019. Twelve months later, at the height of the pandemic, this had dropped to $16.1 million. This reflects a decline of about 5 percent. The nearby Anderson County saw revenues grow from $2.7 million to $2.9 million, an increase of nearly 10 percent. Some of this reflects the changes in shopping habits of Anderson County residents. Rather than shopping in downtown Knoxville, local consumers had goods delivered to their door, increasing the revenues of the local government. More dramatic changes are seen in major tourist hubs like Nashville. Davidson County collected $37 milliion in sales taxes in May 2019. Twelve months later, this had dropped to $28.8 million, a decline of 22 percent. Although much of this is a decline from out-of-state visitors, some surely reflects the spending habits of commuters. For example, nearby Maury County saw its sales tax revenue grow from $2.5 million to $2.7 million.
International Trade
The voluntary trade by individuals with buyers and sellers located in other countries is a source of enormous economic benefit to the United States.
It creates expansion opportunities for domestic industry, enhances competition, increases efficiency, and provides greater choice to consumers. In total, the United States imports
$3.1 trillion worth of goods and services from overseas. In turn, businesses and consumers in other countries purchase $2.2 trillion worth of products from U.S. exporters.
The unsteady economic experience was not restricted to the domestic economy. International trade, itself the source of skirmishes and tariff disputes in recent years, saw increased volatility in 2020. The dollar value of goods Americans imported will fall by 7.5 percent in 2020. More dramatically, services imports will fall by 22.6 percent in the year. Combined, this aggregated to total imports reducing by 10.4 percent. As with overall consumption patterns, much of the response was in Quarters 2 and 3. Imports fell by 54 percent as lockdowns started in the early part of the year, only to rebound with a staggering 91 percent increase in the third quarter.
The dollar declined in value relative to other key currencies, making imports of foreign goods relatively more expensive. At the start of the year, $100 could buy 90 euro, rising to a peak of 94 euro just before the initial COVID-19 waves in March. The combination of lockdowns, fiscal stimulus, and expansionary monetary policy by the Federal Reserve served to devalued the local currency. On December 1, approaching year-end, $100 would only purchase consumers about 83 euro, down over 11 percent on its year-high.
The reduction in purchasing power of the dollar, which make exports cheaper and imports more expensive, was not enough to arrest the trade deficit. Other countries who may have purchased American products also experienced recessions and a reduction in demand. Thus while imports will fall by 10.4 percent in 2020, exports will fall even further, by 13.4 percent.
Productivity & Wages
Business’ costs of wages and salaries will grow by 2.8 percent in 2020. Inflation in health insurance markets was more modest, at 1.8 percent, meaning the total costs of employment will grow by 2.6 percent in 2020, below the 2.7 percent and 2.9 percent increases recorded in 2019 and 2018.
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1.1. THE U.S. ECONOMY: YEAR IN REVIEW, CONTINUED
The difficult labor market meant large cutbacks in hours and overtime opportunities. The average work week declined to 32.1 hours, the lowest level in a decade, and down from 32.3 hours in 2019. More substantial was the decline in the Manufacturing Workweek, down 0.9 hours (to 40.7 hours) on average. The decline in manufacturing hours is compounded by the decline in manufacturing output per hour, which was down 0.2 percent. However the Capital Stock, which measures the value of machines, raw material, computers and other items that increase the output of workers, increased by 2.2 percent. Chief among these increases was a 10.2 percent boost in physical Computer equipment and a 6.3 percent increase in Software. Industries with
traditionally heavy raw materials like Coal (25.3 percent decrease), Logging (9.3 percent decrease), Oil and Gas (11 percent decrease) declined in output. The only Durable Manufacturing industry to register an increase in numbers employed was Computers and Electronics.
Increased unemployment (up to 8.1 percent) and the average workweek down (by 5.8 percent) means fewer people were working and those who remained employed worked fewer hours. Nonetheless, the total cost of wages and salaries grew by 2.8 percent. This is because the average Hourly Compensation of employees increased, from under $44 to over $46. This is up substantially, from under $40 in 2016 and under $35 at the start of the decade.
We forecast the U.S. economy will see a continued trend of recovery in 2021. Real GDP growth will be strong, with quarterly growth of 2.7 percent in Quarter 1 relative to three months prior, though still lower than the equivalent level recorded in 2020. The strong results will be supplemented by more modest growth rates (of 1.0, 1.9, and 1.9 percent) in the following three quarters. This will generate an average growth rate of 3.1 percent, recovering most of the 3.6 percent lost in 2020. This will generate an average growth rate of 3.1 percent, recovering most of the 3.6 percent lost in 2020. Growth will continue in subsequent years, albeit modestly, with a central forecast of 2.5 percent growth in both 2022 and 2023. As a result, real GDP is projected to recover to pre-pandemic levels by early-2022.
Consumption
Personal Consumption will rebound strongly in 2021. Consumption in the United States will exceed $14.9 trillion next year, recording growth of 3.6 percent. Growth will continue (up 2.2 percent) in 2022.
Durable goods will continue their increase in popularity in 2021, growing by 5.2 percent, driven in part by the renewed importance consumers place on activities in the home. The growth in durables will not be restricted to home activities, however. New Automobiles will see growth of 4.8 percent, the first year of growth since 2012, but only after double-digit declines for two years in a row.
Nondurable goods consumption will also grow in 2021, but by a modest 1.0 percent. Following a large 9.3 percent decline in 2020, a 7.3 percent increase in Clothing and Footwear will have consumers looking fashionable as the economy reopens. Off-Premises food, that is, food intended for take-out, will decline in value by 2.5 percent. This reflects a replenished willingness for indoor dining.
Indeed, the largest shift in spending patterns will be away from goods and towards services. Services’ share of consumption expenditure will grow to 68.0 percent in 2021, up from the depressed 67.2 percent in 2020, but still behind the 69.0 percent in 2019. Unsurprisingly this growth will be concentrated in the Food and Recreation sectors. Food services will grow by 12 percent, with Recreation recording even stronger growth of 23 percent.
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1.2. THE U.S. FORECAST, CONTINUED
The Labor Market
Unemployment will ease as economic conditions improve. Starting the year above 6.0 percent, the unemployment rate will fall to 5.4 percent by the end of the year. While still quite high by historical comparison, this is a marked improvement on the 14 percent unemployment rate during the peak of the pandemic (2020 Quarter 2). In addition to the reduction in unemployment, people with jobs will see better opportunities for regular and overtime hours. The number of hours in Nonfarm Establishments will increase by 4.0 percent.
A key factor in future economic growth will be the ability to transition people back into the labor force in the post-COVID environment. The pre-recession 2019 population aged 16 and over – which is close to measuring potential workers – was 264 million people. By the end of 2021, the working age population will be 4.1 million higher. However, the increase in people willing and able to work will be much less, with just 200,000 more people in the labor force. Accelerating the Participation Rate from the record-low 61.8 percent of 2020 beyond the forecasted 62.4 percent in 2021 may require an additional policy response.
Investment and Interest Rates
Buoyed by the COVID-19 vaccines and higher consumption expenditures, investment will be much healthier in 2021. Nonresidential Fixed Investment will grow 1.9 percent in the year, arresting the 4.8 percent decline in 2020. Investment in Equipment will increase by 6.4 percent through the year, adding 0.35 percent points to real GDP growth. The recertification of the Boeing 737 MAX will see a record year for investment in transport, with Aircraft investment increasing by 74.4 percent. A decline in investment in Structures (by 5.6 percent) will be offset by a 2.9 percent gain in Residential Investment.
After running nonfarm inventories down by $78 billion in 2020, an improved economic outlook will see businesses add $66 billon to the value of inventories in 2021. Much of this will be in the Retail sector, which will increase back-order
supplies by $40 billion.With unemployment rates discouragingly high
and consumer confidence at depressed levels, the Federal Reserve will continue to hold interest rates near zero. Expectations are that the Federal Funds Rate will remain at or below 0.1 percent for the next two years.
International Trade
The excess growth of imports (91.1 percent) relative to exports (59.7 percent) in the third quarter expanded the trade deficit, and shaded 3.1 percentage points from real GDP growth. We expect the trade deficit to grow further in 2021.
Exports of goods will increase by 7.5 percent. Particularly strong performers in this category include Aircraft (38.2 percent growth), Computers (19.1 percent growth), and Automobiles (up 24.2 percent). There will be weaker export growth in Industrial Materials (3.1 percent growth) and Foods (6.5 percent decline). Service exports will increase by 3.0 percent in 2021, and 11.2 percent in 2022.
Import growth (8.3 percent) will exceed that for exports in 2021. Much of this will be driven by a 16.3 percent increase in Petroleum, overcoming the 13.8 percent decrease in 2020. While exports of Aircraft and Vehicles are likely to grow, increased consumer demand will ensure that so too will imports of the same. After a 17.1 percent reduction in overseas vehicles imports in 2020, a rebound of 34.6 percent will mean we can expect many foreign automobiles on our roads.
An increase in exports will provide one avenue for stronger economic growth in the coming years. We expect imports to increase by 23.1 percent between 2023 and 2020; but exports to increase by 31.5 percent over the same period. The United States has an opportunity to capitalize on recovering global markets by easing trade restrictions and fostering closer economic ties with traditional allies in Europe and elsewhere.
Government Budget
The baseline forecast assumes that any new stimulus measures will be moderate in scope. This
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2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 17
implies that the fiscal measures passed by Congress in 2020 will largely expire. The CARES Act pumped over $2.0 trillion into the economy, adding 0.28 percentage points to real GDP growth. We will see a resumption of normality in 2021.
The Federal government is projected to collect $3.54 trillion in receipts in 2021, up from $3.42 trillion in this prior year. Outlays will fall dramatically, from $6.55 trillion down to $5.00 trillion, in large part because of a large reduction in Transfer Payments from $4.4 trillion to $3.5 trillion. Nonetheless spending will exceed revenues, as it has every year in recent memory.
As outlays will exceed receipts, the Federal Debt will increase in 2021. Despite the growth in the economy, federal debt is projected to expand from 103.7 percent to 106.9 percent of GDP. Without a consolidated push to rein in the deficit, the debt to GDP ratio will continue to grow through 2023. Expansion of the economy will see it fall slightly beginning in 2024.
Inflation & Prices
The cost of a basket of goods will increase slightly in 2021, averaging 2.3 percent for the year. While there is no substantial difference between core inflation (which excludes Food and
Energy) and the overall basket, the 2.3 percent average masks an acceleration throughout the year. With the after-effects of COVID-19 providing headwinds to aggregate demand, 2021 will see inflation start low in Quarter 1 (1.6 percent) before accelerating to 3.0 percent by Quarter 4.
On the producer side, we can expect similar increases in costs. However, the source of these increases will be different than for consumers. Oil prices are currently at historically low levels. Brent Crude, a benchmark oil price, opened 2020 at a per barrel price above $65. At its low point in April, Brent Crude had dropped below $20. Other oil prices fell further that month. Figure 1.10 plots the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil. The dramatic price drop in early 2020, with the 30-day moving average falling below $20, does not capture the full extent of market decline: for a brief period, the price of a barrel fell into negative territory! The historically low prices are unlikely to continue indefinitely, and the price of domestic crude oil is projected to increase by 16 percent over the year. Although imported oil will provide some cover for producer costs, expectations are that producer prices (commodities) will increase by 5 percent in 2021.
1.2. THE U.S. FORECAST, CONTINUED
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Figure 1.10: Historical Price of WTI Crude Oil (USD)Figure 1.10: Historical Price of WTI Crude Oil (USD)
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18 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
The Housing Market
The improvement in the overall economy will passthrough to a healthier housing market. Housing starts will see 1.0 million new single-family homes started, and sales of 5.9 million existing homes. The average prices of these homes will increase. Expenditure on Residential Construction will increase by 2.8 percent in the year. With increased concerns about contagion and reduced need to be downtown, emphasis will be on relatively isolated sites rather than multi-family
structures like apartment buildings: expenditure on Single-Family construction will increase by 5.0 percent, in contrast to a 5.7 contraction in Multi-Family construction.
The price of new houses will likely surpass $423,000, an increase of 7 percent, with the older stock of existing houses selling for $344,000, up 5.4 percent. These gains will be accelerated by the low-cost financing available to consumers: the interest rate on a conventional 30-Year fixed rate mortgages will hover around 3.0 percent, down substantially from the 4.5 percent seen in 2018.
1.2. THE U.S. FORECAST, CONTINUED
1.3. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
The baseline forecast for the year is far from a certainty. While we see it as the most-likely set of outcomes for 2021, we present here two alternative views, both of which are assigned a probability of 25 percent. The first scenario is pessimistic, and represents a forecast where recovery is weak and slow. The second scenario is optimistic, where vaccine rollout is fast and effective and the new Congress passes further fiscal stimulus.
In the pessimistic scenario, continued spread of COVID-19 leads to surging number of cases, hospitals approaching the limits of their capacity, and thousands of additional deaths. This causes a drop in consumer sentiment and a reluctance to support indoor dining and other non-essential sectors of the economy. With weaker aggregate demand, the benefits to reopening and loosening restrictions on businesses are dampened.
In this scenario growth at the end of 2020 is smaller, and the economy risks slipping into a minor recession in January. Weak consumption and investment figures means real GDP growth is a lethargic 1.6 percent in 2021, recovering less than half of the losses in 2020. Businesses continue to run down inventories rather than investing, and productivity declines.
The ability of the Federal Reserve to react to the deteriorating economic conditions is limited,
as interest rates already hover near zero. Continued political polarization is assumed in the pessimistic scenario, and state and local governments are forced into further cut-backs. Unemployment stays stubbornly high, at 6.4 percent, and does not fall below 5.0 percent until 2024.
In the optimistic scenario, the FDA facilitates immediate rollout of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Widespread uptake arrests the number of cases, which declines in early 2021, improving consumer sentiment and willingness to support re-opening. Further, Congress boosts demand with an additional $400 billion to $500 billion in stimulus.
In this scenario, strong growth occurs immediately, with a 5.7 percent boost in real GDP in Quarter 1, and 5.2 percent growth for the 2021 year as a whole. Buoyant consumer sentiment increases the velocity of spending, with consumption increasing 5.3 percent in Quarter 1, and 5.2 percent over the whole year.
Improved economic conditions encourages business leaders, as firms expand investment by 4.8 percent and the S&P500 rises by 14.1 percent. Faster inflation, at 2.1 percent in 2021 and 2.3 percent in 2022, means that the Federal Reserve will begin increasing interest rates in late 2023 or early 2024. Unemployment drops to 4.9 percent in 2021, and below 4.0 percent in 2023.
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1.4. REFERENCES
Bacher-Hicks, A., Goodman, J. and Mulhern, C., (2020). Inequality in household adaptation to schooling shocks: Covid-induced online learning engagement in real time (No. w27555). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Baker, S.R., Farrokhnia, R.A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M. & Yannelis, C. (2020). How does household spending respond to an epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Volume 10, Number 4, Pages 834—862.
Baker, S.R., Farrokhnia, R.A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M. & Yannelis, C. (2020). Income, liquidity, and the consumption response to the 2020 economic stimulus payments (No. w27097). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Bartik, A.W., Cullen, Z.B., Glaeser, E.L., Luca, M., Stanton, C.T. & Sunderam, A., (2020). The targeting and impact of Paycheck Protection Program loans to small businesses (No. w27623). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Chetty R., Friedman, J., Hendren, N., Stepner, M., & the Opportunity Insights Team (2020). The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data. Available at www.opportunityinsights.org and www.tracktherecovery.org.
Goolsbee, A. & Syverson, C. (2020). Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020 (No. w27432) National Bureau of Economic Research.
Granja, J., Makridis, C., Yannelis, C. & Zwick, E. (2020). Did the Paycheck Protection Program Hit the Target? (No. w27095). National Bureau of Economic Research.
NBC News, (2020). Small-business loan program ran out of money within minutes, some banks say. Available from https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/small-business-loan-program-ran-out-money-within-minutes-some-n1187051. Accessed on 1 December 2020.
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CHAPTER 2: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
2.1. INTRODUCTION
In this Chapter —2.1. Introduction2.2. The Current Economic
Environment The Labor Market Business Formation Activity During the Pandemic Income, Earnings, and Taxable Sales International Trade and Tennessee
2.3. Short-Term Outlook2.4. Tennessee Forecast at a Glance2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and
forest Industries and Rural Economy
Agriculture and Primary Forestry - Introduction - Agricultural Land Use and Farm Size - Tennessee’s Crops and Livestock - Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Industries - U.S. and Tennessee Agricultural Trade Outlook - Financial Indicators for Tennessee Farming Industries - Rural Infrastructure - Primary Forestry in Tennessee
Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing in Tennessee - Value of Shipments, Number of Establishments, and Employees - Economic Impacts From the Agri-forestry Industrial
Complex
Rural Economies and Well-Being
Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic Beyond the Farm Gate
- Food and Fiber Industry Impacts - The Tennessee Food and Beverage Industry and the
Paycheck Protection Program - The Tennessee Green Industry and the Paycheck
Protection Program - Tennessee Household Food Sufficiency During the
Pandemic
Summary
References
The year 2020 has been filled with defining moments and historic events. Mass civil rights protests swept the nation in early-summer, and a presidential election with the largest voter turnout in U.S. history occurred over the fall. However, on a macro level, the year 2020 will largely be defined by the outbreak of COVID-19. The pandemic has led to mass sickness and death across the state, nation and world, and has altered the way we live, the way businesses operate, the way students learn and workers work, and the way consumers spend their money.
At the onset of the pandemic, many states, including Tennessee, issued stay-at-home orders and social distancing mandates, shutting down
all non-essential activities in an effort to slow the spread of the virus. As a result, school years were cancelled or shifted to online instruction, office workers began working remotely, businesses closed, and large public events were cancelled. Lockdowns coupled with fear of contracting the virus resulted in a rapid decline in economic activity. As a result, the nation’s longest economic expansion on record ended in February 2020, and the economy entered into its 33rd recession since the 1850s. The current recession, triggered by the pandemic, is unique in its breadth, depth, and rapidity, as the state’s labor market turned sideways in a matter of weeks. From March to April, nearly 400 thousand Tennesseans lost their
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2.1. INTRODUCTION, CONTINUED
jobs and the unemployment rate went from a record low 3.3 percent to a record high of 15.5 percent in a one-month period. The economic fallout would have likely been worse had it not been for federal stimulus provided through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) and aggressive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which provided enhanced unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, loans, and stimulus checks to help keep (some) households afloat and struggling businesses from failing. More information on federal stimulus is provided in Section 4.7 of Chapter 4.
Following large economic contractions in the spring, economic data started to shore up in May as states reopened. In May and June combined, 208.1 thousand jobs were added back to Tennessee payrolls and the unemployment rate fell to 9.6 percent in June. April seems to have been the trough of the recession, as the state has seen positive economic growth in each month since. Federal assistance coupled with the limited ability for consumers to spend on travel or in-person services has also led to a large increase in consumer purchases of taxable goods, which has helped support state tax revenues and the economic recovery. However, COVID-19 caseloads have surged in recent months and the remaining provisions of the CARES Act are set to expire (as of this writing), leaving the recovery on rocky footing.
High frequency data on restaurant visits from Open Table show that in late-May, open restaurants in Tennessee were only seating about a third of the number of diners as compared to the year prior, but by late-October, this number reached as high as 85 percent.1 However, with the massive surge in recent caseloads, restaurant visits have begun to fall again, and were roughly 50 percent lower than the same time last year as of mid-November. Tennessee’s pace of job growth has also slowed in recent months, as the state has averaged roughly 20 thousand jobs added per month from August to October (compared to over 100 thousand in both May and June), and there are still 131 thousand fewer jobs in October than there were prior to the pandemic.
1 https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry2 http://core19.utk.edu/tn-pulse-wave-6
Beginning in May, the University of Tennessee’s Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy has conducted bi-weekly statewide surveys in order to track public opinion on the pandemic and the state’s reopening plans. In the September wave, 17.0 percent of survey participants said that they would not feel comfortable eating at a dine-in restaurant until a vaccine was available and 21.0 percent would not partake until new caseloads steadily declined. Similarly, 24.0 percent would not attend a large public event, and 20.0 percent would not go to a movie theater, bowling alley, or attend other similar recreational activities until a vaccine were available.2 These responses suggest that a sizeable portion of the state population will not resume pre-pandemic spending patterns until a vaccine is available. It is therefore likely that we will see muted economic growth in the near term.
With that in mind, the short-term outlook calls for positive economic growth in the near term as we dig out of the current recession, but the recovery may be one of fits and starts as we continue to grapple with the virus. In the short term, economic activity will largely depend on the trajectory of the virus, accompanying government responses (to control the virus or provide fiscal support), the development and deployment of effective treatments and/or vaccines, as well as the behavior of individuals across the state, nation, and world. The Tennessee forecast assumes that there will not be new rounds of fiscal stimulus but that a vaccine will be made widely available in the U.S. by the middle of 2021, which will provide a boost to the economic recovery. Additional fiscal stimulus is certainly possible but the timing and size are so uncertain that it would be difficult to incorporate their effects into the short-term forecast.
The outlook calls for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) to contract by 3.5 percent in 2020 followed by stronger positive growth of 2.9 percent in 2021 and 3.6 percent in 2022 as the economy recovers from the pandemic’s negative shocks. Expectations
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are that real GDP in Tennessee will reach pre-pandemic peak levels (from 2019) by the end of 2022. Nonfarm jobs will also continue to recover in 2021, with moderate growth in the first half of the year as the virus continues to shape the recovery, followed by stronger growth in the third and fourth quarter as (hopefully) successful vaccines are distributed throughout the country. As a result, nonfarm jobs will grow by 2.2 percent in 2021 and 2.0 percent in 2022, but will not fully recover to pre-pandemic levels until the third quarter of 2023. While total nonfarm payrolls will fully recover by 2023, some sub sectors will show scarring well past then, as the recovery is not evenly distributed. Employment in the state’s leisure and hospitality sector, one of the hardest hit by the pandemic, will not fully recover until 2024 as restaurants and smaller entertainment venues struggle to stay in business, and restrictions on large events keep revenues down. Employment in the manufacturing sector is projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels throughout the decade, due to depressed global demand, rising levels of uncertainty, and a continued reliance on automation. Even within the manufacturing sector, the recovery has been uneven, as factories that provide popular consumer goods have seen a surge in demand, while those relying on business-to-business sales continue to struggle. The recovery has also been unequal across the wage distribution. Among high wage workers, especially those with the ability to telework, the labor market has largely recovered to pre-pandemic levels, whereas employment among lower and middle wage workers are still depressed (see Section 2.2).
The state unemployment rate is expected to average 7.5 percent for the 2020 year as a whole, before quickly trending down to 5.2 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022 as the labor market recovers. The national unemployment rate will follow a similar trajectory. Nominal personal income is projected to increase by 4.2 percent in 2020, due to a boom in federal transfer payments (e.g. unemployment insurance and stimulus checks) but will slow to 1.1 percent in 2021 as transfer payments normalize before growing at a more stable rate of 4.6 percent in 2022. For the fiscal year, nominal personal income
is expected to rise by 1.8 percent in FY 2020/21 and 3.3 percent in FY 2021/22.
Nominal taxable sales will grow by a subdued 1.7 percent in 2020, but will then see much stronger rates of growth in 2021 and 2022, as sales will advance by 4.7 percent and 4.4 percent respectively. Relatively strong growth in 2021 will be driven by a recovery in sales at eating and drinking places, and hotels and motels, which were severely depressed in 2020, as well as the collection of sales and use taxes on online purchases. Tennessee began taxing online retailers in July 2019 if their sales to Tennessee consumers exceeded $500,000 in the previous year. This helped to keep taxable sales growth out of negative territory in 2020. As of October 2020, this sales threshold was reduced from $500,000 to $100,000, which should broaden the base of online sales tax collections, and provide a boost to taxable sales in 2021. For the fiscal year, nominal taxable sales will grow by 5.3 percent in FY 2020/21 (as compared to the weakened sales of FY 2019/20), and 3.1 percent in FY 2021/22.
There are certainly a number of downside risks, which could lead to slower economic growth in the near term. The most looming of course is the pandemic. As virus caseloads are surging, some states have started to re-impose restrictions and consumers may grow even more cautious and reduce spending. Enhanced UI benefits through the CARES Act and a temporary eviction moratorium for renters (through a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) order) are also set to expire, and with no additional fiscal stimulus to fall back on (as of this writing), a second economic contraction, or “double-dip recession,” is certainly possible. However, we are better equipped now than we were in the spring. Consumers have learned how to better navigate the pandemic and any restrictions (or are ignoring safety protocols), and many businesses have already adopted new practices to account for this new reality (e.g. shifting to curbside pickup, expanding outdoor seating at restaurants, and creating or improving online ordering systems) which could provide a
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2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
buffer to a second economic shock. The Labor Market
In 2019, labor markets in both the state and nation continued to tighten. In Tennessee, nonfarm employment grew by 1.9 percent, representing a net addition of over 59 thousand jobs between 2018 and 2019. Job growth in Tennessee outpaced national job growth of 1.4 percent in 2019. Tennessee’s unemployment rate sat at 3.5 percent or less for the 2019 year as a whole, and consistently rested below the national unemployment rate. Things of course took a turn for the worse in the spring of 2020 with the onset and rapid spread of COVID-19, which led to the temporary closing of many businesses and schools and drastically altered the way we live, work, and spend. As a result, many businesses laid off or furloughed workers, and the state’s unemployment rate shot up to 15.5 percent in April, representing an unprecedented 12.2 percentage point increase from the month prior. This was by far the largest one-month change in unemployment, and is one of the many examples of the scale, scope, and swiftness of the economic destruction caused by the pandemic.
Between March and April, more than 392 thousand Tennesseans had lost their jobs, representing a 12.5 percent reduction in nonfarm employment over that one-month span. This was only slightly better than the 13.8 percent drop in employment felt nationwide. For perspective, Table 2.1 shows job losses for all southeastern states between March and April. Among the 12 southeastern states, 10 saw employment losses of 10 percent or more, including Florida which lost more than 1.0 million jobs (down 12.1 percent) and North Carolina, where employment levels fell by 571.5 thousand (down 12.5 percent).
At the onset of the pandemic, job losses were felt in every Tennessee sector, but leisure and hospitality was hit the hardest, by a wide margin (see Figure 2.1). Nearly half of the initial job losses came from the leisure and hospitality sector, which shed 159.6 thousand workers as restaurants and arts venues closed their doors, the demand for travel halted, and large entertainment events were cancelled. The manufacturing sector was also
hit particularly hard, due to supply chain issues and weak global demand, and manufacturing employment fell by 17.7 percent between March and April, representing a loss of more than 60 thousand jobs. Professional business services was the only other sector to see a double digit contraction in employment growth, as its labor force shrunk by 10.5 percent, representing a reduction of 44.7 thousand workers. In contrast, fewer jobs were lost in the financial activities, construction, government, and information sectors during that first month.
Since April, most sectors of the state economy have seen some job growth, but the financial activities sector is the only to have fully recovered to the pre-pandemic peak levels seen in February. Figure 2.2 shows the net change in Tennessee jobs by sector during the height of the pandemic recession (February through April) as well as the ensuing months (April through October). The figure shows that the three largest service sectors (professional and business services, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality) all saw significant job losses in the spring. All three of these sectors have seen job growth since April, but none are back to their pre-pandemic peak levels. Similarly, the manufacturing sector saw a reduction of 65.8 thousand jobs in the spring and has only added 40.8 thousand back since then,
Table 2.1: Spring Job Losses Across the Southeast
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Employment (in thousands)
Mar-20 Apr-20 Job losses Growth
West Virginia 709.5 617.5 -92.0 -13.0%
Arkansas 1,272.0 1,162.8 -109.2 -8.6%
Mississippi 1,154.7 1,040.8 -113.9 -9.9%
Alabama 2,076.6 1,865.8 -210.8 -10.2%
Louisiana 1,960.7 1,722.4 -238.3 -12.2%
South Carolina 2,197.7 1,921.8 -275.9 -12.6%
Kentucky 1,926.9 1,620.7 -306.2 -15.9%
Tennessee 3,147.8 2,755.0 -392.8 -12.5%
Virginia 4,067.4 3,661.8 -405.6 -10.0%
Georgia 4,618.6 4,120.5 -498.1 -10.8%
North Carolina 4,567.7 3,996.2 -571.5 -12.5%
Florida 8,976.3 7,893.5 -1,082.8 -12.1%
United States 151,090.0 130,303.0 -20,787.0 -13.8%
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Figure 2.1: In April, Job Losses were Seen Across All Broad Sectors of the Tennessee Economy, but Leisure and Hospitality was Hit the Hardest
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 2.2: Employment Gains in Most Tennessee Sectors Have Yet to Make up for the Spring Losses
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
February to April April to October
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while employment levels in trade, transportation, and utilities fell by 44.9 thousand in the spring, and only 30.2 thousand workers have been added since.
Unemployment rates in Tennessee and across the nation haven been on a downward trend for much of the decade, with the Tennessee rate consistently resting below 4.0 percent since mid-2017 and the U.S. rate falling below the 4 percent mark in mid-2018. However, the onset of the pandemic led to a rapid spike in unemployment rates across the country. Figure 2.3 presents unemployment rate trends for the state, the nation, and the southeast region. Tennessee’s unemployment rate shot up by an unprecedented 12.2 percentage points in a one month span, as the state went from matching its lowest unemployment rate in the history of the data (dating back to 1976), at 3.3 percent in March, to its highest ever on record, 15.5 percent in April. A similar pattern was seen for the nation as a whole, as the U.S. rate jumped up to 14.7 percent in April. These April unemployment rates were roughly 50 percent higher than their peak rates during the Great Recession. Since April, unemployment rates have largely drifted downwards as state economies have reopened. As of October,
Tennessee’s unemployment rate sits at 7.4 percent and the national rate is 6.9 percent. Tennessee’s 7.4 percent rate represents a 0.9 percentage point uptick compared to the 6.5 percent rate from a month prior. This increase was largely due to growth in the state’s labor force (i.e. the number of people employed plus the number of people unemployed but actively looking for work), as more people are now searching for work than in the month prior. However, the recent surge in new COVID-19 cases could hamper the current economic momentum.
While Tennessee’s labor market has made up ground since the lows of April, the recovery, thus far, has not been uniformly distributed. Data from Opportunity Insights’ Economic Tracker show that at the end of September employment rates among those in Tennessee’s top wage quartile (greater than $60,000 per year) were only 1.1 percent below their January 2020 levels, and employment among middle wage workers ($27,000 to $60,000 per year) was 3.9 percent lower. But among low wage workers (less than $27,000 per year) employment levels were still a worryingly 17 percent lower than in January 2020 (see Figure 2.4). Thus, while
Figure 2.3: Unemployment Rates Spiked in April, but Have Drifted Downward Since.
Southeast: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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the job market for high wage workers has nearly recovered, employment levels among low wage workers is still severely depressed.
Furthermore, while the state’s unemployment rate has trended downward since April, county-level data show that unemployment rates remain stubbornly high in parts of the state. Figure 2.5 reports the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for all Tennessee counties for the month of September. Since these data are not seasonally adjusted, they are not directly comparable with the state or national unemployment rates, but still provide useful information as to how each Tennessee county has fared during pandemic. In September, Shelby County had the highest unemployment rate, at 9.9 percent, followed by Haywood (8.6 percent), and Davidson and Lauderdale, each at 7.5 percent. We are generally used to seeing the larger metro areas, especially Davidson County, as the economic drivers of the state. However, this pandemic has hit cities hard, especially those reliant on tourism and large entertainment events, such as
Nashville. Similarly, unemployment in Sevier County, which relies heavily on the leisure and hospitality industry, is still somewhat elevated at 6.1 percent. Conversely, the unemployment rate in Williamson County has nearly recovered, falling to 3.6 percent in September (as compared to 10.5 percent in April), and unemployment in Knox County is down to 4.6 percent. Unlike in previous recessions, unemployment rates in some of the smaller more rural counties is also declining at a faster pace than in some of the larger counties. Cities and counties with higher population densities have certainly been more vulnerable to the spread of COVID-19, but the fall and winter months have been met with recent surges in new cases, and spikes in new cases have been seen in rural and metropolitan counties alike, which could certainly dampen the economic recovery going forward.
In Chapter 4, we provide an even more in-depth look into how the pandemic has shaped the labor market, including a deep dive into weekly UI claims as well as national unemployment rate
Figure 2.4: Employment Among High and Middle Wage Workers in Tennessee are Nearly Back to Pre-Pandemic (January 2020) Levels, While Employment Among Low Wage Workers is Still Severely Depressed
Source: Opportunity Insights, https://tracktherecovery.org/Note: Low wage is less than $27k. Middle wage is between $27K and $60K. High wage is above $60K.
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Business Formation Activity During the Pandemic
During the pandemic, the U.S. Census Bureau began releasing new high frequency data on business formation activity at the state, regional, and national levels. This new data series provides information on the number of new business applications received each week, and offers good insight into how the pandemic has affected business formations throughout the year. While a business application does not constitute the start of a new business, it is a good proxy for new business formations and entrepreneurial activity, as it measures the intent to start a new business.
Figure 2.6reportsyear-over-yeargrowthinnewbusinessapplicationsstartingwiththefirstweekof2020throughtheweekendingonOctober24,2020,forTennessee,thesouthregion,andthenationasawhole.Thesouthregion,asdefinedbytheU.S.CensusBureauismuchlargerthanthetypical12southeasternstatesthatwe are accustomed to, and includes Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, and Oklahoma, and Washington D.C. In the U.S., the number of new business applications fell sharply in the third week of March and remained depressed through the last week of April. In each week from mid-March to the end of April, business applicationsfellby10percentormoreascomparedtothesameweekin2019,andfellbymorethan33.0percentinboththelastweekofMarchandthefirstweekofApril.AsimilarpatternplayedoutinTennesseeandthesouthregion as a whole, as the onset of the pandemic led to large declines in business applications throughout the country. Interestingly however, the number of new business applications soared in the summer months, growing bynearly200percentinTennesseeduringthefirstweekofJuly(comparedtothesametimelastyear),andbymorethan100percentineachweekthereafterthroughtheendofJuly.Asimilar,butslightlymoretemperedpatternheldforthesouth(up147.6percent)andthenationasawhole(up127.4percent)duringthatfirstweekofJuly.Growthinnewbusinessapplicationshasslowlyfallensincethesummerboom,butstillremainswellabovehistoricalaveragesthroughtheendofOctober.Forexample,intheU.S.,businessapplicationsgrewby37.9percentinthefourthweekofOctober,whereasfrom2006to2019averagegrowthduringthatweekwasonly3.5percent.Thepandemichascertainlyledtonewbusinessopportunitiesforsome(e.g.enhancedcleaningservices,maskmaking,andfooddeliverytonameafew),andmanypeoplewholosttheirjobsinthespringmayhavestarted their own businesses to try to make ends meet or to take advantage of evolving opportunities.
Figure 2.6: Growth in Weekly Business Applications
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics,
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trends across various population subgroups.Income, Earnings, and Taxable Sales
Average earnings in Tennessee have been on the rise in recent years. Figure 2.7 reports monthly data on average hourly wages for all private employees in the state. In 2016, average earnings in Tennessee rested at $21.60 per hour, but by 2019, they had risen above $24.00 per hour. For those working a full time job, this increase equates to roughly $5,000 more per year in earnings. There was also a large spike in hourly earnings in April of 2020, at the onset of the pandemic. Unfortunately, this was driven by a large swath of job losses among workers receiving below average wages. For example, those working in leisure and hospitality and retail trade. This is one example of how the pandemic has had inequitable adverse economic effects, as those with a (likely) smaller financial cushion were more likely to lose their jobs during the pandemic.
Thankfully however, per capita income, which is unaffected by average wages, also grew in the second quarter of 2020. Figure 2.8 shows quarterly per capita income for the first two
quarters of 2020 for the U.S. as well as the 12 southeastern states. In all states, per capita income levels grew, with annualized growth rates ranging from 14.8 percent in Tennessee to an astounding 71.1 percent in West Virginia. These large gains were solely driven by federal transfer payments (i.e. enhanced UI benefits and stimulus checks), which expanded by an annualized rate of 463.0 percent in Tennessee during the second quarter of 2020 (as compared to the previous quarter). As a result, per capita income levels will likely fall in the near future as federal transfer payments normalize. A similar pattern can be seen for nominal personal income for Tennessee as a whole, which rose by 15.8 percent in the second quarter of 2020. Again, this outsized increase is solely due to the rise in federal transfer payments. All other components of personal income growth shrunk in the second quarter, including a 27.8 percent drop in total wages and salaries, as a large swath of the state population lost their jobs (permanently or temporarily) in the second quarter.
Figure 2.8 also shows that per capita income levels across most of the southeast are well below the national average. Virginia, with a per capita income
Figure 2.7: Average Hourly Earnings in Tennessee Have Risen in Recent Years
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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Figure 2.8: Per Capita Income Grew Across the Southeast Region in the Second Quarter of 2020
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
level of $63,674, is the only southeastern state with an average income level above the national average of $61,842. By comparison, the regional average income level was $51,141 in the second quarter, a full $10,000 lower than the national average. Tennessee’s average income level was slightly above the regional average, at $51,232 and trailed behind Virginia, Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana. This marks the first time since 2015 that Louisiana has had higher per capita income than Tennessee.
Prior to the pandemic, taxable sales in Tennessee showed very strong growth, expanding by 6.8 percent in 2018 and 6.0 percent (or nearly $8.0 billion) in 2019. Most sectors saw strong sales growth in 2019, with the exception of food stores, which only grew by 3.3 percent, and transportation and communications, where sales remained relatively flat between 2018 and 2019.
Many of the long-standing taxable sales trends were turned upside down in 2020 as the onset of the pandemic led to a collapse in the demand for in-person services and a near halt in travel. As a result, sales in eating and drinking places fell by more than 40 percent in both the first and second quarter of 2020, representing a $900 million reduction in sales between the second quarter of 2020 and the same quarter last year. Many eating and
drinking places pivoted to a business model focused on online ordering, take-out, and delivery, which helped keep sales from plummeting further, and some restaurants/bars have been able to weather the storm more than others, but as a whole, this sector has been reeling during the pandemic. Sales rebounded to some degree in the third quarter of 2020 as outdoor dining became more feasible in the summer months, and some restaurants reopened their indoor dining rooms. However, the recent surge of new COVID-19 cases in the fall and winter could certainly slow the recovery. Hotels and motels saw an even more dramatic decline in sales, as taxable sales fell by 43.3 percent in the first quarter and 96.7 percent in the second quarter, due to the near halt in travel among vacationers and businesspeople alike. Hotel and motel sales saw a strong recovery in the third quarter, as sales nearly doubled between the second and third quarter, but third quarter sales are still well below their pre-pandemic levels. Purchases from manufacturers also fell in the second quarter of 2020 due to pandemic-related supply chain issues coupled with the temporary closing of businesses across the state and nation during the spring months. However, manufacturing sales fully recovered to their pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter. While
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manufacturing sales, as a whole, have bounced back, the recovery has been uneven. Factories selling popular consumer goods (e.g. exercise equipment and recreational vehicles, to name a few) are having trouble keeping up with elevated demand while those who sell products to other companies (i.e. business to business sales) are still struggling.
While the leisure and hospitality industry and in-person services have taken a big pandemic-related hit, purchases of goods has shown robust growth through most of 2020 as consumers have shifted much of their buying towards the goods market. Purchases from food stores rose rapidly over the first half of 2020, as the demand for groceries skyrocketed while restaurants and bars remained closed and stay at home orders were in effect. Strong sales growth was also driven by grocery price increases, as the price of many staples such as coffee, eggs, and chicken (to name a few) rose due to rising demand coupled with supply chain disruptions.
Taxable sales at liquor stores also rose rapidly over the first half of 2020 as more people were buying alcohol for at-home consumption. Purchases of miscellaneous durable goods, which includes building materials and hardware stores, saw strong growth during the second and third quarter of 2020. As individuals realized they would be spending much more time at home over the spring and summer months they took up more home improvement projects to make their combined living/work spaces more comfortable. The summer months also brought strong sales growth to the other retail and service category, which includes sporting goods stores and electronic stores. Sporting goods sales rose as individuals purchased exercise equipment and found ways to enjoy outdoor hobbies, while electronic sales grew as those working from home made purchases to better equip their home offices and parents and school districts purchased laptops and chrome-books for the upcoming virtual school year.
Despite the statewide stay at home order, which lasted for the entire month of April, total taxable sales in Tennessee only fell by 3.7 percent in the second quarter of 2020, as compared to
the quarter prior. Consumer spending during this period was buoyed to some extent by the enhanced UI benefits and stimulus checks provided through the CARES Act. Furthermore, the pandemic has led to a dramatic shift in consumer spending patterns. Through the first half of 2020, Tennesseans spent more of their money on taxable goods and less on in-person services, many of which are not taxable in the state. This helped to keep taxable sales from falling too sharply in the spring. Finally, online purchases have become even more popular during the pandemic, and Tennessee recently expanded their collections of online sales tax collections, which has helped keep tax revenues from slipping too far. These trends are further discussed in Section 4.4 of Chapter 4.
In the third quarter, taxable sales accelerated by 29.6 percent compared to the moderately depressed collections from the second quarter. As the state started to reopen, total taxable sales recovered rapidly in the third quarter of 2020. However, this recovery was largely driven by the purchase of goods. Sales of the few taxable services in the state, such as at hotels and motels, eating and drinking places, and transportation and communications, are still well below their pre-pandemic levels from the fourth quarter of 2019.
International Trade and Tennessee
The Tennessee economy has a strong reliance on the international sector through foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade. Foreign direct investment in Tennessee refers to foreign investment/ownership of Tennessee businesses. Figure 2.9 shows the top-10 countries with regards to Tennessee FDI. In 2019, Japan had the highest FDI impact in Tennessee, by a wide margin, as Japanese owned companies, such as Nissan and Yamaha, employed over 40,000 Tennessee workers, and operated 189 establishments throughout the state. In second place was Germany (with companies such as Volkswagen and Wacker), with 20,100 jobs and 130 firms, followed by France (10,659 jobs and 87 firms) and the United Kingdom (10,086 jobs and 118 firms). In 2019, there were over 1,000 foreign-
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based businesses with investments or operations in Tennessee, leading to the employment of over 140 thousand Tennesseans (120 thousand of which came from the 10 countries listed in Figure 2.9).3 This represented roughly 4.5 percent of total nonfarm employment in Tennessee in 2019.
The flow of goods and services through international trade is another important driver of the Tennessee economy. In 2019, Tennessee exported more than $31.0 billion worth of merchandise to other countries. Figure 2.10 shows the top-5 products exported from Tennessee. The state’s largest export product was transportation equipment, which accounted for nearly $6.0 billion in international sales in 2019. Chemical products was ranked second, at $4.8 billion, followed by computer and electronic products, at $4.5 billion.
Tennessee exports declined sharply in 2020 as countries across the globe dealt with the pandemic. Through the first nine months of 2020, Tennessee had only exported $20.3 billion worth of merchandise to markets abroad, representing a dramatic 34.7 percent drop compared to the same period last year (see Figure 2.11). Tennessee’s
3 https://tnecd.com/advantages/international/
transportation equipment market was hit particularly hard, where exports fell by $1.6 billion or 34.9 percent through the first nine months of 2020 (as compared to the same period in 2019).
Figure 2.12 reports year-to-date exports (January through September) for Tennessee’s five largest export markets: Canada, Mexico, China, Japan, and the Netherlands. Canada and Mexico are Tennessee’s two largest international markets, and in 2019 these two countries accounted for 36.1 percent of all Tennessee exports. However, through the first half of 2020, both countries dramatically reduced their purchases of Tennessee goods. Compared to the first half of 2019, Canada reduced purchases by 40.9 percent, representing a $2.9 billion decline. This drop was felt across all Tennessee industries, but was largest in the transportation equipment and machinery categories. In Mexico, purchases fell by 44.8 percent, representing a $1.9 billion drop, with the largest declines coming from the machinery, chemicals, and transportation equipment categories. In contrast, exports to China, Tennessee’s third largest market, remained
Figure 2.9: Tennessee Employment in Foreign Owned Companies
Source: Tennessee Department of Economic & Community Development.Note: Number of establishments from each country are reported in parenthesis.
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2.2. THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED
Figure 2.11: Tennessee Exports Tumbled Through First Nine Months of 2020
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration.
Figure 2.10: Tennessee’s Top-5 Exports in 2019
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration.
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Figure 2.12: Tennessee Exports were Hit Hardest in its Two Largest Markets: Canada and Mexico
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration.
relatively flat. The Tennessee economy is projected to
contract by 3.5 percent in 2020 due the pandemic and pandemic-related responses. Economic losses would have likely been far worse had it not been for the Federal government’s quick and aggressive monetary and fiscal policy, which helped prop up (some) businesses and households during the pandemic. Expectations are that the trough of the recession occurred in April of 2020 and that the state economy will see positive growth going forward as we dig out of the low point from the spring. As a result, Tennessee real GDP will advance by 2.9 percent in 2021 and 3.6 percent in 2022. Tennessee real GDP is projected to surpass its pre-pandemic peak level by the end of 2022. However, the current surge in daily COVID-19 cases puts the economic recovery on shaky footing.
A summary of the short-term outlook is provided in Table 2.2. Tennessee nonfarm jobs are projected to fall by 3.7 percent in 2020, representing a net loss of 116 thousand workers between 2019 and 2020. These losses all occurred in the second quarter of 2020, as the state shed nearly 400 thousand workers between March and April. The state has seen positive job growth since then, as nonfarm employment grew by 18.8 percent in the third quarter and is projected to advance by 6.7 percent in the fourth quarter, but nonfarm employment levels are projected to remain below the pre-pandemic peak until the first quarter of 2023. The nonfarm employment outlook is presented in Figure 2.13 and a more detailed sectoral breakdown of the short-term employment outlook is provided in Table 2.3. Second quarter job losses in Tennessee were
2.3. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
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Table 2.2: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally AdjustedHistory Forecast Data Annual
2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2021:2 2021:3 2021:4 2022:1 2022:2 2022:3 2022:4 2023:1 2019 2020 2021 2022U.S. GDP (BIL2012$) SAAR… 17302.5 18584.0 18755.5 18880.5 18928.3 19015.4 19105.3 19258.4 19413.4 19539.9 19644.9 19752.7 19091.7 18413.2 18982.4 19464.1 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…… -31.38 33.08 3.74 2.69 1.02 1.85 1.90 3.24 3.26 2.63 2.17 2.21 2.16 -3.55 3.09 2.54 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… -9.03 -2.91 -2.59 -0.69 9.40 2.32 1.87 2.00 2.56 2.76 2.82 2.57 2.16 -3.55 3.09 2.54U.S. GDP (BIL$) SAAR…….... 19520.1 21157.6 21458.2 21695.7 21871.4 22079.1 22298.2 22584.7 22878.6 23143.0 23388.5 23640.5 21433.2 20924.3 21986.1 22998.7 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…… -32.82 38.02 5.80 4.50 3.28 3.85 4.03 5.24 5.31 4.70 4.31 4.38 3.98 -2.37 5.07 4.61 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… -8.48 -1.78 -1.33 0.62 12.05 4.36 3.92 4.10 4.60 4.82 4.89 4.68 3.98 -2.37 5.07 4.61TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL2012$) SAAR……............ 319219 310707 309335 306599 307059 308915 310757 313052 315462 317703 319871 322325 302654 311438 308333 316522
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…… 17.67 -10.25 -1.75 -3.49 0.60 2.44 2.41 2.99 3.11 2.87 2.76 3.10 2.48 2.90 -1.00 2.66 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 5.60 2.61 1.84 0.03 -3.81 -0.58 0.46 2.10 2.74 2.84 2.93 2.96 2.48 2.90 -1.00 2.66U.S. PERSONAL INCOME (BIL2012$) SAAR…………...... 18469 17817 17263 17092 17091 17101 17094 17195 17287 17363 17436 17556 16888 17660 17095 17320
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. 36.37 -13.39 -11.87 -3.91 -0.02 0.24 -0.16 2.38 2.14 1.79 1.69 2.78 2.40 4.58 -3.20 1.32 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 9.66 5.49 1.71 0.00 -7.46 -4.02 -0.98 0.60 1.14 1.53 2.00 2.10 2.40 4.58 -3.20 1.32TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) SAAR………………...... 352529 346641 346490 345393 347739 351737 355629 359897 364208 368238 372358 376628 332473 346376 350125 366175
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. 15.79 -6.52 -0.17 -1.26 2.74 4.68 4.50 4.89 4.88 4.50 4.55 4.67 4.00 4.18 1.08 4.58 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr..... 6.28 3.97 3.20 1.63 -1.36 1.47 2.64 4.20 4.74 4.69 4.70 4.65 4.00 4.18 1.08 4.58U.S. PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$) SAAR............................ 20397 19856 19319 19196 19305 19425 19532 19751 19961 20154 20344 20585 18552 19631 19364 20052
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…... 34.19 -10.19 -10.39 -2.51 2.28 2.51 2.23 4.55 4.33 3.91 3.84 4.81 3.92 5.82 -1.36 3.55 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr.... 10.37 6.77 2.97 1.29 -5.35 -2.17 1.11 2.89 3.40 3.75 4.16 4.22 3.92 5.82 -1.36 3.55TN NONFARM JOBS (THOUS).................................. 2858.7 2984.2 3033.0 3045.5 3059.7 3083.5 3106.8 3118.4 3128.7 3139.2 3148.8 3159.4 3123.0 3007.0 3073.9 3133.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR....... -32.35 18.76 6.70 1.67 1.88 3.15 3.05 1.50 1.33 1.34 1.23 1.35 1.95 -3.71 2.23 1.95 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… -8.26 -4.60 -3.45 -3.38 7.03 3.33 2.43 2.39 2.26 1.80 1.35 1.31 1.95 -3.71 2.23 1.95U.S. NONFARM JOBS (MIL).... 133.7 140.8 143.2 145.8 147.1 148.1 149.0 150.1 151.1 151.7 152.3 152.7 150.9 142.4 147.5 151.3 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR........ -39.99 22.91 7.10 7.28 3.61 2.89 2.48 3.05 2.58 1.52 1.58 1.21 1.37 -5.65 3.56 2.58 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr..... -11.22 -6.86 -5.64 -4.05 9.98 5.20 4.05 3.01 2.75 2.41 2.18 1.72 1.37 -5.65 3.56 2.58TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)......... 306.7 324.3 327.4 328.5 329.6 331.1 332.8 333.7 334.4 334.9 335.5 336.1 355.1 327.8 330.5 334.6 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…..... -42.99 25.02 3.87 1.41 1.29 1.88 1.99 1.13 0.77 0.66 0.75 0.74 1.31 -7.67 0.82 1.24 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr..... -14.02 -8.86 -7.23 -6.92 7.47 2.11 1.64 1.57 1.44 1.14 0.83 0.73 1.31 -7.67 0.82 1.24U.S. MFG JOBS (MIL)………... 11.8 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.8 12.2 12.4 12.5 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR….... -29.50 13.68 3.42 0.99 2.94 0.82 1.05 1.43 -0.35 0.39 2.48 2.10 1.19 -4.62 0.96 0.97 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… -8.35 -5.49 -4.69 -4.35 5.14 2.03 1.44 1.55 0.73 0.63 0.98 1.15 1.19 -4.62 0.96 0.97TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE %).................................. 12.1 8.2 6.3 5.7 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.4 7.5 5.2 4.4
U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)................................. 13.0 8.8 6.8 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 3.7 8.1 5.7 4.7
CHAINED PRICE INDEX, GDP (2012=100.0)…............... 112.9 113.9 114.4 114.9 115.5 116.1 116.7 117.3 117.8 118.4 119.1 119.7 112.3 113.6 115.8 118.2 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. -1.82 3.59 1.95 1.76 2.24 1.96 2.08 1.93 1.98 2.02 2.10 2.12 1.81 1.17 1.93 2.01 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 0.61 1.12 1.26 1.35 2.38 1.98 2.01 2.06 1.99 2.01 2.01 2.06 1.81 1.17 1.93 2.01U.S. PERS CONSUMP DEFL (2012=100.0)…………............. 110.4 111.4 111.9 112.3 113.0 113.6 114.3 114.9 115.5 116.1 116.7 117.3 109.9 111.2 113.3 115.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…… -1.60 3.70 1.68 1.46 2.30 2.26 2.40 2.12 2.15 2.08 2.11 1.98 1.49 1.20 1.90 2.20 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr… 0.65 1.21 1.25 1.29 2.28 1.92 2.10 2.27 2.23 2.19 2.11 2.08 1.49 1.20 1.90 2.20CONSUMER PRICE INDEX,ALL-URBAN (82-84=1.000)..... 2.563 2.595 2.610 2.621 2.638 2.657 2.677 2.693 2.710 2.726 2.743 2.758 2.557 2.589 2.648 2.718 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR….... -3.53 5.16 2.29 1.63 2.70 2.91 2.95 2.42 2.58 2.44 2.50 2.24 1.81 1.26 2.30 2.64 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 0.44 1.25 1.23 1.34 2.94 2.38 2.55 2.75 2.71 2.60 2.49 2.44 1.81 1.26 2.30 2.64BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%)................................. 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 5.3 3.5 3.3 3.3
FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (% per annum)…..................... 0.060 0.093 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 2.158 0.378 0.100 0.100
30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE (%)................................. 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.9 3.1 3.0 3.2
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL2012$).............................. 31443 33207 33303 33127 33135 33213 33379 33671 33921 34157 34370 34641 128957 129563 132854 136119
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…... -2.10 24.40 1.17 -2.10 0.10 0.94 2.02 3.54 3.00 2.82 2.51 3.19 4.39 0.47 2.54 2.46 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr... -2.21 2.82 1.36 4.80 5.38 0.02 0.23 1.64 2.37 2.84 2.97 2.88 4.39 0.47 2.54 2.46TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)… 34724 37047 37304 37319 37525 37817 38199 38709 39163 39591 40010 40477 141670 144124 150860 157472 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR........ -3.67 29.57 2.80 0.16 2.23 3.15 4.11 5.45 4.76 4.44 4.30 4.76 5.95 1.73 4.67 4.38 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr..... -1.57 4.18 2.72 6.47 8.07 2.08 2.40 3.73 4.36 4.69 4.74 4.57 5.95 1.73 4.67 4.38TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM (2012$)………….... 48594 48052 47984 47917 47889 47904 47915 48091 48277 48487 48668 48874 47349 48068 47906 48380 % Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. 8.23 -4.39 -0.56 -0.56 -0.23 0.13 0.09 1.47 1.56 1.75 1.50 1.70 0.83 1.52 -0.34 0.99 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 2.27 1.67 1.86 0.57 -1.45 -0.31 -0.14 0.36 0.81 1.22 1.57 1.63 0.83 1.52 -0.34 0.99TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM ($).......................... 53665 53609 53748 53980 54233 54545 54834 55287 55737 56199 56654 57107 52012 53463 54398 55969
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……. 6.49 -0.42 1.04 1.74 1.89 2.32 2.14 3.34 3.29 3.36 3.28 3.24 2.33 2.79 1.75 2.89 % Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…. 2.93 3.02 3.23 2.18 1.06 1.75 2.02 2.42 2.77 3.03 3.32 3.29 2.33 2.79 1.75 2.89
Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee Tennessee Econometric ModelSources: Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, IHS, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2.3. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK, CONTINUED
CHAPTER 2 | The Tennessee Economy: Short-term Outlook
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Table 2.3: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)History Forecast Data
2019:4 2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2021:2 2021:3 2021:4 2022:1 2022:2 2022:3 2022:4 2023:1TOTAL NONFARM……………………..………….. 3141.3 3152.0 2858.7 2984.2 3033.0 3045.5 3059.7 3083.5 3106.8 3118.4 3128.7 3139.2 3148.8 3159.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…......………….. 1.71 1.37 -32.35 18.76 6.70 1.67 1.88 3.15 3.05 1.50 1.33 1.34 1.23 1.35% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………....……….. 1.88 1.47 -8.26 -4.60 -3.45 -3.38 7.03 3.33 2.43 2.39 2.26 1.80 1.35 1.31
NATURAL RESOURCES AND CONSTRUCTION……………………………. 134.3 133.3 130.5 130.6 132.6 133.0 133.5 134.2 134.9 135.5 136.1 136.5 136.9 137.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………….………….. -0.69 -2.75 -8.33 0.51 6.03 1.38 1.55 1.93 2.06 2.01 1.56 1.24 1.40 1.68% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………….…….. 2.21 -0.17 -2.88 -2.87 -1.27 -0.24 2.35 2.70 1.73 1.89 1.89 1.72 1.55 1.47
MANUFACTURING............………………………… 352.9 352.9 306.7 324.3 327.4 328.5 329.6 331.1 332.8 333.7 334.4 334.9 335.5 336.1% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………….………….. -3.25 0.04 -42.99 25.02 3.87 1.41 1.29 1.88 1.99 1.13 0.77 0.66 0.75 0.74% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr....…………….……….. 0.00 -0.55 -14.02 -8.86 -7.23 -6.92 7.47 2.11 1.64 1.57 1.44 1.14 0.83 0.73
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES……..... 646.0 652.6 617.7 635.1 642.4 644.9 647.5 649.9 650.8 650.9 651.1 651.4 651.7 651.9% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……....………….……….. 4.87 4.13 -19.74 11.80 4.67 1.53 1.64 1.48 0.56 0.05 0.12 0.23 0.18 0.11% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…................................ 2.59 2.58 -2.99 -0.51 -0.55 -1.18 4.83 2.32 1.30 0.93 0.55 0.24 0.15 0.16
INFORMATION.................………………………… 46.3 45.9 42.5 43.1 43.6 43.9 44.2 44.5 44.7 44.9 45.0 45.1 45.2 45.2% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………..……….. 4.14 -3.13 -26.48 5.76 4.18 3.38 2.14 2.70 2.23 1.45 1.39 0.51 0.58 0.63% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr....……………….…….. 4.51 3.07 -6.18 -5.89 -5.88 -4.34 3.86 3.10 2.61 2.13 1.94 1.39 0.98 0.78
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………...……………… 173.2 174.8 172.4 174.3 175.4 176.1 176.4 176.7 176.9 177.3 177.8 178.4 179.0 179.7% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……....…….…………….. -0.15 3.75 -5.38 4.48 2.52 1.52 0.87 0.50 0.64 0.92 1.12 1.37 1.33 1.56% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr.……………………….. 2.22 2.34 0.25 0.60 1.26 0.72 2.34 1.35 0.88 0.73 0.79 1.01 1.18 1.34
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES….... 429.1 429.6 388.6 405.2 411.6 412.7 415.8 420.9 425.8 430.0 433.6 437.8 440.5 443.6% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…........………………….. 0.97 0.44 -33.03 18.21 6.41 1.09 3.03 4.97 4.75 4.05 3.41 3.91 2.52 2.79% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………....….. 2.35 1.18 -8.62 -5.34 -4.09 -3.94 6.99 3.86 3.45 4.20 4.29 4.03 3.47 3.16
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………...….. 444.1 448.2 419.4 432.0 435.2 437.0 438.3 442.7 447.0 449.2 451.2 453.3 455.4 457.8% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR.………………………….. 0.94 3.71 -23.28 12.57 3.00 1.59 1.28 4.04 3.97 1.95 1.76 1.92 1.85 2.08% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr.……………………….. 1.50 1.93 -4.87 -2.49 -2.00 -2.50 4.51 2.47 2.71 2.80 2.92 2.40 1.87 1.90
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…….....………………. 355.5 355.2 246.5 297.9 317.9 323.2 326.9 333.2 340.8 342.3 343.8 344.8 346.4 348.2% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR....……………………….. 6.92 -0.41 -76.80 113.22 29.80 6.75 4.69 8.00 9.38 1.75 1.81 1.15 1.91 2.01% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr.……………………….. 4.21 3.17 -28.83 -14.81 -10.57 -9.01 32.61 11.88 7.19 5.91 5.18 3.47 1.65 1.72
OTHER SERVICES………......……………………. 121.5 121.1 106.1 117.3 117.7 118.0 118.4 119.9 121.3 121.6 122.0 122.3 122.7 123.2% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR........…………………….. -0.33 -1.31 -40.94 49.04 1.41 0.94 1.38 5.27 4.82 1.02 1.17 1.12 1.34 1.62% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr............……………….. 1.39 0.41 -12.46 -3.54 -3.12 -2.57 11.52 2.24 3.08 3.10 3.05 2.02 1.16 1.31
GOVERNMENT...................................................... 438.4 438.5 428.2 424.3 426.2 427.1 429.1 430.5 432.0 433.3 434.3 435.4 436.4 437.4% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……..…....…….. 0.52 0.06 -9.01 -3.59 1.75 0.85 1.87 1.36 1.43 1.16 0.90 1.00 0.96 0.94% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr....………………….….. 0.13 0.24 -2.08 -3.08 -2.79 -2.60 0.19 1.46 1.38 1.46 1.21 1.12 1.01 0.95
Sources: Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 2.13: Job Growth Stabilizes After a Tumultuous 2020
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS (November Forecast), and Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.
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2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 37
slightly less severe than the national average, and as a result, the ensuing recovery will be slightly less pronounced, with Tennessee job growth of 2.2 percent for the 2021 year as a whole, versus 3.6 percent for the nation. The Tennessee forecast assumes no new fiscal stimulus package, but does assume that a COVID-19 vaccine will be made widely available by the second or third quarter of 2021, which will provide a boost to job growth in the second half of 2021.
Given how volatile employment growth rates have been over the last few quarters, it is useful to focus on employment levels as well. A good benchmark is to compare current and forecasted employment levels with employment levels prior to the pandemic. Based on current projections, nonfarm employment will return to its pre-pandemic peak level by the first quarter of 2023. While total nonfarm employment in Tennessee will make a full recovery by 2023, some sectors of the state economy will recover quicker or take longer to recover due to their exposure to the virus and various economic factors. As an example of the former, employment in the natural resources, mining, and construction sector is projected to regain all of its workers by early-2021 due to a strengthening construction sector and booming residential housing market. Large corporate construction projects such as Amazon’s new operations in Nashville and the FedEx expansion in Memphis will also help to lift construction payrolls. Most service sectors of the state economy will see decent gains, as employment levels recover over the next few years. One exception, however, is the leisure and hospitality sector, which faced the brunt of the initial job losses this past the spring, and will not reach pre-pandemic employment levels until 2025, as many smaller arts and entertainment venues struggle to keep their businesses afloat and restrictions on large public events likely remain in place in the near term. The employment outlook for the manufacturing sector is also rather bleak, as a continued reliance on automation and advanced manufacturing will likely keep employment growth largely in check. As a result,
manufacturing employment levels will grow slowly over the forecast horizon and remain below pre-pandemic peak levels through 2030.
As the labor market recovers, the state’s unemployment rate will continue to trend downwards. The number of unemployed people will fall sharply in 2021 and 2022 but will remain above the pre-pandemic level through the short-term forecast horizon. As a result, the state unemployment rate will fall to 4.3 percent by the end of 2022. This is well above the 3.3 percent rate that prevailed for much of 2019, but would still make for a remarkable recovery compared to the 12.1 percent rate from the second quarter of 2020 (largely driven by the 15.5 percent rate in April).
Nominal personal income in Tennessee will start to normalize in 2021, as effects from fiscal stimulus start to wane and more people regain employment. The former will lead to an 11.3 percent reduction in transfer payments in 2021 while the latter results in a 4.0 percent increase in wages and salaries. Taken together, nominal personal income will grow by a subdued 1.1 percent in 2021 but will still outpace national income growth, which is projected to fall by 1.4 percent in 2021. The national economy saw a much stronger uptick in federal transfer payments during the second quarter of 2020 (transfer payments grew by an annualized rate of 853.9 percent in the U.S. versus 463.0 percent in Tennessee), and therefore the subsequent decline in transfer payments will be much more severe, and will pull national income growth into the negative territory in 2021. On a fiscal year basis, nominal personal income in Tennessee will advance by 1.8 percent in FY20/21 and 3.3 percent in FY21/22.
Taxable Sales in Tennessee will expand by 4.7 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022. Relatively strong growth in 2021 will be due to a recovery in the sales of services, as eating and drinking places will see an 8.4 percent increase in sales, and hotels and motels will see a 33.9 percent increase, compared to their depressed collections in 2020. However, we project that taxable sales in these categories will remain below pre-pandemic levels until the pandemic subsides.
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Strong taxable sales growth will also be driven by the collection of sales and use taxes from online purchases. In 2018, the Supreme Court case of South Dakota v. Wayfair Inc. decided that states could mandate that businesses without a physical presence in the state (e.g. internet sellers) collect and remit sales and use taxes on transactions made in the state. On July 1, 2019, Tennessee began taxing these online retailers if their sales
to Tennessee consumers exceeded $500,000 in the previous year. However, as of October 2020, this sales threshold was reduced from $500,000 to $100,000, which should broaden the base of online sales tax collections and lead to stronger sales tax growth in 2021. These tailwinds, however, will be counteracted by food and liquor store sales, which after booming in 2020, are projected to fall in 2021 as consumer-spending
2.3. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK, CONTINUED
patterns start to normalize to some extent.• After contracting by 3.5 percent in 2020,
Tennessee’s inflation-adjusted GDP will increase by 2.9 percent in 2021 and 3.6 percent in 2022. Expectations are that state GDP will recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.
• Nonfarm employment in Tennessee will fall by 3.7 percent in 2020 due to the pandemic recession, before increasing by 2.2 percent in 2021 and 2.0 percent in 2022. Strong employment growth is projected for the second half of 2021 on the hopes of an effective and widely distributed vaccine.
• Total nonfarm employment will return to pre-pandemic levels by the first quarter of 2023. However, employment in leisure and hospitality will not recover until 2025 and manufacturing employment will remain below pre-pandemic levels
through 2030. • The state’s unemployment rate will trend
downwards through the short-term forecast horizon, falling to 4.4 percent by the end of 2022.
• Nominal personal income will grow
by 4.2 percent in 2020. Despite the economic fallout from the pandemic, nominal personal income growth will keep pace with recent history due to a large spike in federal transfer payments through enhanced unemployment benefits and the distribution of stimulus checks. Federal transfer payments will start to normalize in 2021 as fiscal stimulus softens, leading to a much weaker 1.1 percent rate of nominal income growth for 2021, followed by a more normal 4.6 percent rate of growth in 2022.
2.4. TENNESSEE FORECAST AT A GLANCE
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Introduction
Tennessee’s agri-forestry industrial complex encompasses the supply chain from farm and forest to consumers of the end products, such as retail foods, clothing, paper, and furniture. The agri-forestry industrial complex includes crop and livestock farming, timber removal and sawmills, and agricultural inputs production, such as agricultural machinery, fertilizers, soil amendments, and herbicides. The complex also includes downstream manufacturers of food and fiber goods (i.e., food and beverage products, textiles and textile products, wood, paper, and furniture products) that demand goods from farmers and first-stage forestry operations. This section of the report includes economic indicators for a) primary agriculture and forestry (farming and first-stage forestry); b) secondary agriculture and forestry (manufacturing and processing facilities); and c) well-being indicators for rural communities.4 In 2020, Tennessee’s agri-forestry industrial complex has been greatly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy measures taken at the national, state, and county levels designed to control the spread of the virus, as well as policy measures designed to counteract deleterious economic impacts from the pandemic. This chapter also focuses on the how COVID-19 may have impacted crop and livestock farmers in Tennessee; the state’s food and beverage industries, in particular small businesses; food sufficiency; and the well-being of Tennessee’s households.
Agriculture and Primary Forestry
Agricultural Land Use and Farm SizeIn 2019, farming operations occupied 10.8
million acres in Tennessee, around 40 percent of the state’s nearly 27.0 million acres of land area. Just under 49 percent of the farmland in Tennessee is operated as cropland (USDA/NASS,
4 Defined as the primary industries typically associated with agriculture and forest operations, such as growing crops, the breeding and feeding of livestock, and the management and logging of trees. Also included in the industrial complex are input-supplying industries and value-added subsectors, which include food and beverage manufacturing, apparel and textiles, and forestry products manufacturing.
2020e). Of Tennessee’s 69,700 farming operations, average farm size in 2019 was around 155 acres. Tennessee ranks 9th in the U.S. in terms of the number of farming operations but 26th in terms of acres operated, reflecting farm sizes smaller than the U.S. average (USDA/ERS, 2020e). Cash receipts from farming in Tennessee for 2019 were $3.6 billion, with about 63 percent of this value coming from crops and 37 percent from animals and animal products (USDA/ERS 2020a).
Tennessee’s Crops and LivestockIn terms of harvested acreage, Tennessee’s
four largest row crops are corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat. Based on 2019 national cash receipts by commodity, Tennessee ranks 17th in corn production ($498.1 million; 1.0 percent of U.S. total); 9th in cotton production ($291.6 million; 4.1 percent of U.S. total); 16th in soybean production ($602.9 million; 1.8 percent of U.S. total); and 18th in wheat production ($81.6 million; 0.9 percent of U.S. total) (USDA/ERS, 2020a). Harvested acreage, production, and yield from 2015 to 2020 for the four principal row crops are shown in Table 2.4. In 2020, harvested acreage for Tennessee row crops were estimated to be 1.62 million acres of soybeans, 820,000 acres of corn, 280,000 acres of cotton, and 230,000 acres of wheat. Soybean acreage was up 18.0 percent from 2019 and 1.0 percent above the previous five-year average; corn acreage was down 10.0 percent compared to 2019 and 6.0 percent greater than the five-year average; cotton acreage was down 30.0 percent compared to 2019 and 6.0 percent lower than the five-year average; and wheat acreage was up 5.0 percent from 2019 and 25.0 percent lower than the five-year average (USDA/NASS, 2020e). Soybean acreage was up from 2019 due to improved planting conditions in spring 2020 compared to 2019, when substantial acres were prevented from being planted due to flooding and wet conditions. Corn acres were down, as spring 2020 prices favored planting soybeans over corn. Wheat acres were down as a result of lower prices
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in fall 2019 and a challenging fall planting season in West Tennessee due to excess moisture. Cotton acres were down as cotton prices were adversely affected by COVID-19 during the spring planting season. Cotton prices dropped to near 50 cents for most of the spring. State average corn and soybean yields for 2020 are projected to be 165 bushels per acre (12 bushels per acre below last year) and 49 bushels per acre (2 bushels per acre higher than last year), respectively. Cotton yield is projected at 1,117 pounds per acre, slightly below last year’s all-time record of 1,138 pounds per acre. Wheat yield is estimated at 59 bushels per acre, 8 bushels per acre lower than last year and 10 bushels below the five-year average. In Tennessee, 2020 growing conditions varied across the state with improved spring planting conditions compared to 2019 but greater moisture variability after planting. The dominant driver in crop selection and anticipated prices in spring 2020 was the impact of COVID-19. The increased uncertainty and low price environment favored increased planted acres of low input cost commodities, such as soybeans, over higher input
cost commodities, such as corn or cotton. Prices received by Tennessee producers are
influenced by local, national, and global market forces. Due to COVID-19, most commodity prices were significantly depressed from March through July. Lower prices during this time period limited Tennessee crop producer’s ability to manage price risk during the production season. However, a combination of domestic weather events (a derecho, an active hurricane season, flash droughts in the Midwest, and drought in the Southern Plains); global weather (drought in parts of Europe, Ukraine, and Russia and delayed planting in South America due to a later onset of the rainy season); and improved export sales (mostly to China) propelled row crop prices dramatically higher. From August 1 to November 15, soybean, corn, cotton, and wheat prices increased $2.50 per bushel, $0.80 per bushel, $0.05 per pound, and $0.65 per bushel.
Currently, 2020 marketing year average corn prices are 2.9 percent above the five-year average and 1.8 percent below 2019; soybean prices are 12.6 percent above the five-year average and 16.9
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*5-Year Avg.
Change 5-Year Avg. to 2020
Change 2019 to 2020
CornHarvested Acres (million) 0.73 0.83 0.71 0.67 0.91 0.82 0.77 6% -10%
Production (million bushels) 116.8 125.3 121.4 112.6 161.1 135.3 127.44 6% -16%
Yield (bu/acre) 160 151 171 168 177 165 165.4 0% -7%
CottonHarvested Acres (million) 0.14 0.25 0.34 0.36 0.4 0.28 0.298 -6% -30%
Production (‘000 bales) 0.31 0.58 0.73 0.77 0.96 0.64 0.67 -4% -33%
Yield (bu/acre) 1,046 1,104 1,033 1,041 1,138 1,117 1072.4 4% -2%
SoybeansHarvested Acres (million) 1.72 1.63 1.66 1.67 1.37 1.62 1.61 1% 18%
Production (million bushels) 79.1 73.4 83 76 64.4 79.4 75.18 6% 23%
Yield (bu/acre) 46 45 50 45.5 47 49 46.7 5% 4%
WheatHarvested Acres (million) 0.4 0.34 0.28 0.29 0.22 0.23 0.306 -25% 5%
Production (million bushels) 26.9 24.5 19.3 18.5 14.4 13.6 20.72 -34% -6%
Yield (bu/acre) 68 73 70 65 67 59 68.6 -14% -12%
Table 2.4. Tennessee Harvested Acres, Production, and Yield for Corn, Cotton, Soybeans, and Wheat, 2015-2020*
*Estimated data.Source: USDA/NASS, 2020e.
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percent above 2019; wheat prices are 5.4 percent above the five-year average and 2.8 percent below 2019; and cotton prices are 3.0 percent below the five-year average and 8.5 percent above 2019 (Table 2.5). However, the current marketing year average prices for 2020 are expected to improve based on the remaining time in the 2020/21 marketing year and higher current prices. The marketing year for corn and soybeans is from September 1 to August 31; wheat, June 1 to May 31; and cotton, August 1 to July 31.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Ad Hoc Direct Payments to Producers
In 2018 and 2019, Tennessee producers received $69.0 and $245.8 million in direct payments from the federal government through the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) (USDA/ERS, 2020d). The program was implemented to assist producers that had been adversely affected by retaliatory tariffs due to trade disputes with several nations, most notably China.
In 2020, direct payments were issued to producers that had been adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) authorized direct payments to producers in two stages. CFAP 1 sign-up ended September 11, 2020. As at November 8, 2020, CFAP 1.0 payments to Tennessee producers were (USDA/FSA, 2020a):
• Dairy — $7.94 million; 170 applicants• Aquaculture/nursery/flora — $1.68 million; 73 applications
5 Sales commodities include specialty crops, aquaculture, nursery crops and floriculture, and other commodities not included in the price trigger and flat-rate
• Specialty crops — $0.24 million; 21 applications• Non-specialty crops — $35.4 million; 3,131 applications• Livestock — $87.4 million; 19,175 applications
Total payments across all categories was over $132.6 million, with 21,223 applications. For CFAP 1, the top five commodities receiving payments were: cattle ($85.1 million); cotton ($15.6 million); corn ($14.6 million); milk ($7.94 million); and soybeans ($4.8 million).
The CFAP 2 program accepts applications until December 11, 2020. As of November 8, 2020, Tennessee had received the following CFAP 2.0 payments and applications by category (USDA/FSA, 2020b):
• Acreage-based — $58.8 million; 8,589 applications• Dairy — $4.2 million; 120 applications• Eggs/broilers — $0.03 million; 33 applications• Livestock — $41.2 million; 12,540 applications• Sales Commodities — $19.9 million; 843 applications
Total payments across all categories is currently $124.2 million, with 19,792 applications. For CFAP 2, the top five commodities receiving payments were: cattle ($39.6 million); corn ($24.1 million); soybeans ($19.9 million); sales commodities5 ($13.9 million); and cotton ($9.0 million).
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Table 2.5. Marketing Year Average Prices for Tennessee, 2015-2020*
*Average daily cash price in Tennessee for the start of the 2020/21 marketing year to November 10, 2020, as reported by USDA/AMS. The marketing year for corn and soybeans is from September 1 to August 31; wheat, June 1 to May 31; and cotton, August 1 to July 31.Source: USDA/NASS, 2020e.
Commodity 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 5-Year Average 2020*
Corn $3.92 $3.66 $3.55 $3.75 $3.95 $3.77 $3.88
Cotton $0.62 $0.70 $0.68 $0.73 $0.59 $0.66 $0.64
Soybeans $9.29 $9.78 $9.70 $8.75 $8.96 $9.30 $10.47
Wheat $5.22 $4.64 $4.60 $5.24 $5.45 $5.03 $5.30
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Farm Bill Programs for Row-Crop Producers
The current Farm Bill (the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018) covers the crop years 2019-2023 and extends the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs initially authorized in the 2014 Farm Bill (the Agricultural Act of 2014). In calendar year 2019, Tennessee producers received $7.9 million in direct payments from ARC and $19.2 million from PLC programs (USDA/ERS, 2020d).6 Payments for the calendar year 2020 were issued starting October 1, 2020, but aggregated data were not currently available at the time of publication. Tennessee producers purchased 24,609 federal crop insurance policies, covering 2.88 million acres and $1.02 billion of crop value. The federal government’s portion of crop insurance premiums paid by Tennessee producers was $59.1 million for the 2020 crop year (USDA/RMA, 2020).
Row Crops Outlook
Looking towards 2021, prices have improved compared to 2019/20; however, prices remain highly uncertain. Prices for 2020/21 will depend on export sales, domestic weather and planting conditions, South American crop progress, global weather, intensification/mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic, and global economic growth. Producer profitability for the 2018-2020 crop years was largely contingent on payments from the federal government. Payments from the federal government for the 2021 crop year and beyond are likely to be substantially lower than the past three years; thus, producer profitability will be driven primarily by commodity prices and yields.
For the 2020/21 marketing year, Tennessee farm-gate prices are projected to be $5.50-$6.50 for wheat; $3.85-$4.75 for corn; $10.00-$11.75 for soybeans; and $0.65-$0.75 for cotton. Key factors for producer profitability in 2020/21 include trade disruptions, adverse weather events, access to financing, interest rates, exchange rates, regulations
payment categories.6 Payments received in the calendar year are for the previous year’s crop (i.e., 2019 payments are for the crop produced in 2018).
and policies, and global economic growth.Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Industries Market Trends and Outlook
Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Industries
Animals and animal products accounted for 37.0 percent ($1.28 billion) of Tennessee’s agricultural receipts in 2019. Based on 2019 cash receipts, cattle and calves was the third largest agricultural sector in Tennessee with cash receipts totaling $487.7 million, which accounted for 14.1 percent of total agricultural cash receipts. Broiler receipts were only $29.9 million behind cattle and calves and were a close fourth, totaling more than $457.7 million and representing 13.2 percent of cash receipts. Dairy products and milk (3.1 percent of cash receipts), hogs (2.6 percent), and chicken eggs (1.7 percent) rounded out the top five Tennessee rankings for animals and animal products based on cash receipts in 2019 (USDA/ERS, 2020a). Tennessee markets for animals and animal products are influenced by national and international market forces. Thus, changes in the national and international market impact local prices, production, and receipts.
The key issues impacting the 2020 animal and animal products markets have been associated with temporary slaughter plant closures due to COVID-19, aftermath impacts of the temporary closure of the Tyson Holcomb cattle slaughter plant following a fire at the facility, disruptions in food service, restaurants and retail due to COVID-19, and trade agreements. Through the first week of October 2020, year-to-date red meat (beef, veal, pork, lamb/mutton) production was 0.1 percent higher than the previous year and was slightly more than 41 billion pounds (USDA/AMS, 2020a). Similarly, poultry (chicken, turkey, and ducks) production through the end of September was 0.9 percent greater than the same nine months in 2019 and totaled 35.2 billion pounds (USDA/AMS, 2020c). Milk production the first eight months of 2020 was up 1.8 percent from the
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2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL ECONOMY
previous year to 149.5 billion pounds (USDA/NASS, 2020b).
International demand for meat has been greatly influenced by COVID-19, but it has done its best to recover following the peak outbreak domestically. U.S. beef exports from January through August decreased 5.8 percent compared to 2019 and totaled 1.38 billion pounds. Total beef export value over the first eight months of 2020 totaled nearly $4.38 billion, a decrease of 8.8 percent compared to 2019. Pork exports the first eight months of 2020 were 22.3 percent higher than 2019 and totaled 3.71 billion pounds. Total pork export value totaled $4.45 billion, an increase of 20.0 percent compared to 2019 (USMEF, 2020). On the dairy side, exports of most dairy products the first eight months of 2020 were greater than year-ago levels. The total aggregate volume of U.S. dairy exports through August were 3.37 billion pounds, which is an increase of 15.2 percent compared to 2019, while total dairy export value is up 14.0 percent to $4.47 billion (U.S. Dairy Export Council, 2020).
Calf (500-600 pound steer) and feeder cattle (700-800 pound steer) prices in Tennessee through the first nine months of 2020 decreased 3.8 and 5.3 percent, respectively, compared to the same nine months in 2019 (USDA/AMS, 2020d). The price pressure in 2020 stems from disruptions in the supply chain caused by COVID-19, both domestically and internationally. Much of the negative price pressure comes from the closure of restaurants and food service establishments across the U.S., while the same issue and depressed economies are influencing international trading partners. Similarly, Tennessee milk prices for the Appalachian and Southeast Federal Milk Marketing Orders through the first eight months of 2020 decreased 2.2 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, compared to the same eight months in 2019 (USDA/AMS, 2020e).
Tennessee ranked 16th nationally in terms of total cattle and calf inventory as of January 1, 2020 (1.81 million head including 909,000 beef cows and 31,000 dairy cows), which is the same ranking as a year ago. Tennessee ranks 11th in total beef
cow numbers, with Kentucky being the only state east of the Mississippi River with a larger beef cow inventory (USDA/NASS, 2020c). The state is ranked second nationally in meat goat numbers at 100,000 head (USDA/NASS, 2020d).
The beef sector has little reason to expand at this point, with the supply disruptions that COVID-19 caused throughout the industry. The pork sector has strong exports and will likely expand further if China continues to demand U.S. pork. The poultry sector will likely be flat moving into 2021. The dairy industry is unlikely to expand production nationally due to expectations of lower prices moving into 2021. Tennessee beef cattle numbers are expected to remain steady in 2021, while dairy cattle numbers will likely decline further.
Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: Impacts of COVID-19, CFAP, and Outlook
The livestock, poultry, and dairy industries were not immune to the impacts of COVID-19. Actually, these industries were greatly impacted by the closings of restaurants, food service entities, and school systems, because it negatively impacted the supply chain and demand structure. The shift in where meat protein and dairy products were consumed, home versus away from home, resulted in a shift in the products demanded, as well as forcing processors to make changes to meet those demands.
Beginning with beef and pork, the onset of coronavirus led to disruptions in many cattle and hog slaughter and processing facilities. In most instances, workers in these facilities work within a few feet of each other. This close proximity of workers resulted in some facilities experiencing virus outbreaks among workers, causing many facilities to close or reduce slaughter levels for a short period to reduce the incidence of spread, as well as to install equipment to protect employees from the virus. As slaughter levels declined, so did cattle and hog prices throughout the supply chain.
Furthermore, the closure of many restaurants
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and food service providers negatively impacted the supply chains for beef and pork. Restaurants and grocery stores do not generally order the same cuts of meat, and they typically receive different size packages. The shift of consumers purchasing more from grocery stores forced meat packers to adjust facilities to provide the desired cuts and package sizes.
The poultry sector was not influenced the same as cattle and hogs in that slaughter and processing facilities have much more automation. Still, this industry was influenced by the shift of consumers purchasing more from grocery stores as opposed to restaurants.
The dairy industry was influenced by the closure of restaurants, because this is where many of the dairy solids such as cheese and butter are consumed. Similarly, the closure of school systems negatively impacted school lunch programs and thus the consumption of fluid milk. However, the most publicized happening was the dumping of milk due to the inability to get it all processed. Milk was being consumed during the midst of the pandemic, as could be seen with empty milk coolers, but the inability to process milk fast enough resulted in milk being dumped.
Markets did pick up after the initial shock from COVID-19. The pork industry has been primarily supported by strong exports to China, as they continue to recover from African Swine Fever in 2019. The dairy industry has seen strong exports and a resumption of decent demand for milk and milk products domestically, which has supported prices. The beef industry has seen a resumption of typical slaughter levels, which helped support prices, but cattle prices and beef prices are succumbing to seasonal tendencies. The poultry sector has not been as fortunate in that prices at the farm level are struggling as the industry continues to produce a lot of meat.
As many sectors of the agricultural community struggled with low commodity prices, the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP1) provided help to maintain farm income. As of October 13, 2020, cattle, dairy, and hog producers in Tennessee had received $85.07 million, $7.94 million, and $1.44 million, respectively,
from CFAP1 (USDA/FSA 2020a). A second CFAP program (CFAP2), which is still in the sign-up period, has distributed $2.74 million to dairy producers and $20.88 million to livestock producers in Tennessee, as of October 13, 2020 (USDA/FSA 2020b).
Looking into 2021, the livestock, poultry, and dairy industries will be tempered by the happenings of 2020. It may be difficult for many producers to match 2020 farm income in 2021 if further governmental assistance is not provided. Despite the expectation of lower farm income in 2021, livestock, poultry, and dairy prices are expected to be on par or slightly higher than 2020.
U.S. and Tennessee Agricultural Trade OutlookIn fiscal year (FY) 2020 (October 2019 –
September 2020), total U.S. agricultural and related exports, as reported by the USDA, were $151.5 billion, down 1 percent when compared to the previous fiscal year ($153 billion) (USDA/FAS, 2020). While trade tensions with China and the EU were still issues in FY 2020, another reason for this decline is the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a significant impact on the global demand for U.S. agricultural and related exports. The factors affecting exports at the national level appear to have had an even greater impact on Tennessee. Tennessee’s agricultural and related exports were $1.9 billion in FY 2020, down $143 million or 7 percent when compared to the previous fiscal year ($2.1 billion). In fact, Tennessee experienced declines in all major categories in FY 2020. Exports of bulk agricultural commodities ($710 million), which includes cotton, tobacco, and soybeans, were down $54 million or 7 percent; related product exports ($610 million), which includes forest products and distilled spirits, were down $50 million or 8 percent; consumer-oriented exports ($439 million), which includes meat and dairy products as well as processed food products, were down $27 million or 6 percent; and exports of intermediate products ($168 million) such as soybean meal and oil and other
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Table 2.6. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports in FY 2019 and FY 2020:
Total and by Major Product Category
Note: Fiscal Year (FY) is October to September. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agricultural Trade System.
Product Category FY 2019 FY 2020 Change Change
$ Million %
Agricultural and Related Products $2,070 $1,927 -$143 -6.9%
Bulk Agriculture 764 710 -54 -7.1%
Agricultural Related Products 660 610 -50 -7.6%
Consumer-Oriented Agriculture 466 439 -27 -5.8%
Intermediate Agriculture 180 168 -12 -6.4%
feeds were down $12 million or 6 percent (Table 2.6).
Key exports in FY 2020 for Tennessee included cotton ($646 million); prepared foods and beverages ($274 million); poultry products ($71 million); and
tobacco ($32 million). During this period, Tennessee was also a leading exporter of two agricultural-related products: distilled spirits ($464 million) and forest products ($143 million). Note that dairy products were a leading export for Tennessee in FY 2019 ($51 million) but decreased by over 80 percent in FY 2020 to only $9 million (USDA/FAS, 2020). For many leading sectors, Tennessee exports were down when compared to the previous fiscal year. The most noted declines were cotton exports, which were down $29 million in FY 2020 (down 4 percent), and forest products, which were down $46 million or 24 percent. There were two product categories among the top 10 exports that actually increased. Note that exports of prepared food and beverages increased by $17 million or 7 percent when compared to FY 2019, and poultry products increased by $13 million or 23 percent (Figure 2.14).
Changes in FY 2020 exports compared to the previous year could also be viewed from the perspective of countries that are major buyers of Tennessee products. In FY 2020, Tennessee exported to more than 140 countries, with the top
Figure 2.14. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports in 2018 and 2019: Top 10 Product Categories
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agricultural Trade System.
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markets being Canada, China, Vietnam, Turkey, and Pakistan. Noted declines in FY 2020 include a $35 million (38 percent) decrease in exports to Mexico, a $24 million (13 percent) decrease in exports to Vietnam, and a $23 million (7 percent) decrease in exports to Canada. Interestingly, exports to China increased substantially in FY 2020, increasing from $111 million in FY 2019 to $243 million in FY 2020 — an increase of 118 percent — which is an indication that the effects of the trade war may be subsiding (Table 2.7).
According to USDA, U.S. agricultural exports (excluding agricultural-related products) in FY 2021 are projected at $140.5 billion, up $5.5 billion from FY 2020. This projected increase is primarily driven by higher projected exports of soybeans and corn. Soybean exports are forecast up $4.2 billion from FY 2020 to $20.4 billion, largely due to expected strong demand from China and reduced competition from Brazil. Corn exports are projected up $700 million to $9.0 billion on expectations of higher export volume. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast up $500 million to $32.3 billion in FY 2021, led by higher beef and veal, variety meat, dairy, and poultry exports. Cotton exports, however, are forecast down $400 million to $5.0 billion on smaller volume and lower prices. Agricultural exports to China are forecast at $18.5 billion, an increase of $4.5 billion from FY 2020, largely on higher expected soybean sales. Agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico are forecast at $21.0 billion and $19.3 billion, respectively (USDA/ERS, 2020f).
The positive U.S. outlook, in part, depends on China being able to satisfy its commitments under the Phase One Trade Agreement. According to the agreement, China will import $36.5 billion in U.S. agriculture in calendar year 2020 (Muhammad and Smith, 2020). According to the most recent trade data (as of the date of this report), China was still less than 50 percent ($12 billion) as of September 30, 2020 (USDA/FAS, 2020). However, a recent U.S. Trade Representative and USDA report cited that when including committed purchases and outstanding sales obligations, China was at 71 percent of the purchase commitments in the agreement
(USTR, 2020). Given China’s importance to Tennessee’s agricultural exports, achieving the Phase One Agreement commitments could have significant implications for Tennessee exports in FY 2021.
As COVID-19 began to spread across the U.S., businesses closed and individuals were asked to comply with shelter-in-place or stay-at-home orders. Countries around the globe imposed similar measures. Consequently, the pandemic has negatively affected the global economy beyond anything experienced in nearly a century. The decrease in global demand due to these measures and the resulting decrease in household income has affected the global sales of Tennessee agricultural and related products. From March to July, Tennessee agricultural and related exports are relatively high compared to other months and usually peak during this period. In 2018, for instance, Tennessee exports steadily increased from $160 million in January to more than $270 million in March and then declined throughout the rest of the year. It is during this peak period when the lockdown order and closures were imposed. As a result, Tennessee agricultural and related exports from March to July in 2020 were significantly lower when compared to previous years. For instance, exports in March 2020 were
Table 2.7. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports in FY 2019 and FY 2020 by Top 10 Partner
Countries (Destinations)
Note: Fiscal Year (FY) is October to September. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agricultural Trade System.
Rank Partner Country
FY 2019 FY 2020 Change Change
$ Million %
World $2,070 $1,927 -$143 -6.9%
1 Canada 309 287 -23 -7.3%
2 China 111 243 132 118.4%
3 Vietnam 179 155 -24 -13.4%
4 Turkey 111 106 -5 -4.9%
5 Pakistan 104 89 -14 -13.7%
6 France 76 62 -14 -18.8%
7 Netherlands 55 59 5 8.5%
8 Mexico 94 59 -35 -37.5%
9 Germany 24 48 24 99.0%
10 Indonesia 64 48 -16 -24.6%
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less than $140 million, significantly less than March exports in prior years (Figure 2.15).
Tennessee agricultural and related exports as of July 2020 were down 15 percent when compared to the previous year. This was even larger than the national average (minus 4 percent) and is primarily due to decreased sales of cotton and forest products. As of July 2020, Tennessee exports were down $195 million when compared to the previous year, owning to declines in cotton exports ( $111 million) and forest product exports ( $39 million). Both products are used in manufacturing and rely on global clothing and apparel and furniture sales as a key driver of demand. The combination of reduced household incomes and government-imposed shutdowns has substantially reduced global spending on clothing and finished wood products. For example, Statista (2020) reports that U.S. clothing sales in 2020 decreased by 50 percent in March when compared to February and decreased by 75 percent in April
when compared to March. Similarly, U.S. furniture sales decreased by 21 percent in March and decreased by 49 percent in April when compared to previous months. The decrease in sales of these final products, which are produced in foreign countries like China and Vietnam, has resulted in decreased demand for the primary product (cotton and timber). As global sales of these final products recover, Tennessee exports of cotton and forest products should respond accordingly.
Financial Indicators for Tennessee Farming IndustriesSeveral measures can be used to indicate the
financial well-being of farms and farm operators in Tennessee. Table 2.8 presents financial data from 2015-2019 for the Tennessee farming sector. It is important to note that these values are prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019, the value of farm production rose slightly from $4.20 in 2018 to $4.28 billion (USDA/ERS 2020e). Net farm income, however, rose markedly from $297
Figure 2.15. Tennessee Agricultural and Related Product Exports (monthly): 2017-2020
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agricultural Trade System.
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million in 2018 to $880 million in 2019, averaging $12,626 per operation. Several other farm financial indicators had positive changes from 2018, with the net farm income ratio rising from 0.07 to 0.21, indicating an increased efficiency of converting production to net farm income, while capital consumption and operating expense ratios fell, reflecting a lower amount of capital consumed to generate production and a decline in the percentage of value of production made up of operating expenses, respectively. The interest expense ratios for the farming sector, holding at 6 percent or less, reflect a low debt burden and interest payment level relative to production. Times interest earned is another measure of ability to cover debt payments, specifically interest payments. In 2019, the value was 4.28, well above one, implying sufficient cash to meet interest payments. The 2019 estimated market value of land and buildings on farms was $43.1 billion or just over $618,000 per farm in Tennessee.
Rural InfrastructureThe on-farm grain storage capacity in
Tennessee remained 100 million bushels in 2019, while the state has an additional 137 off-farm storage facilities with 75 million bushels of storage capacity (USDA/NASS 2020a). A trending
growth in the state’s agricultural production has presented challenges to its storage capacity. A recent estimate by USDA Agriculture Marketing Service (AMS) suggests that Tennessee’s total storage capacity in 2020 will be again deficient for crop production and stocks (USDA/AMS 2020b). When storage does not meet grain production and stocks, transportation efficiency becomes significantly crucial to agricultural producers in the harvest season. Trucking remains the dominant mode for agricultural products in domestic markets, and the condition of the state’s road system is facing certain difficulties. About 15 percent of the major roads in the state are in poor or mediocre condition, while 4 percent of the state’s bridges are structurally deficient (TRIP 2020). Nearly 37 percent of the state’s bridges have been in operation for more than 50 years, an age for significant rehabilitation and replacement. The State of Tennessee has introduced a number of programs to address the challenges of transportation infrastructure, including the Highway Program 2021-2023 and the State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP).
Primary Forestry in TennesseeIn 2017, roughly 51 percent of Tennessee was
Table 2.8. Indicators of Financial Well-Being of the Tennessee Farm Sector, 2015-2019
1 Excludes operator dwellings. Source: (USDA/ERS 2020e).
Indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Value of Production (mill $) $4,578 $4,007 $4,284 $4,203 $4,281
Cash Farm Receipts (mill $) $3,670 $3,317 $3,573 $3,501 $3,457
Net Farm Income (mill $) $714 $203 $450 $297 $880
Interest Expense1 (mill $) $196 $208 $238 $263 $268
Market Value of Farmland, Buildings, & Equipment (mill $) $40,221 $41,093 $41,856 $42,728 $43,092
Capital Consumption1 (mill $) $750 $793 $670 $608 $549
Total Production Expenses1 (mill $) $3,832 $3,827 $3,908 $3,966 $3,643
Net Farm Income Ratio 0.16 0.05 0.10 0.07 0.21
Capital Consumption Ratio 0.16 0.20 0.16 0.14 0.13
Operating Expense Ratio 0.63 0.71 0.70 0.74 0.66
Interest Expense Ratio 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06
Times Interest Earned 4.65 1.98 2.89 2.13 4.28
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covered in forest (13.9 million acres). The number of live trees on forestland is estimated at 8.4 billion trees, with a volume of 32.3 billion cubic feet. The forest cover is primarily hardwoods (89 percent of the forest composition), making the state one of the top three hardwood lumber-producing states in the U.S. There are more than 120 tree species in Tennessee. White oak, red oak, hickory, yellow poplar, and maple are some of the more predominant hardwood species. For softwoods, loblolly pine, Virginia pine, red cedar, and shortleaf pine are major species. The dominant forest type in the state is oak-hickory, accounting for an estimated 9.9 million acres (Tennessee Forestry Association, 2020). Of the close to 14.0 million acres in forest, 83.2 percent is privately owned with Federal and state/local forests comprising 10.0 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively (Tennessee Forestry Association, 2020; USDA Forest Service, 2020).
In 2017, the state’s 140 sawmill establishments employed 1,953 workers with a total payroll of $80.2 million, while the state’s 141 logging establishments employed 768 workers with a total payroll of $24.0 million (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020a). From 2010 through 2017, average annual growth rates in employees, payroll, and establishments for sawmills (NAICS 321113)
were 0.7 percent, 7.6 percent, and -2.8 percent, respectively. For logging (NAICS 1133), the average annual growth rates over the same period were 2.0 percent, 5.9 percent, and -0.1 percent, respectively, for employees, payroll, and establishments.
Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing in Tennessee
Value of Shipments, Number of Establishments, and Employees
The state’s 1,714 food and fiber processing and manufacturing facilities employed 80,267 workers, with a payroll of $3.7 billion in 2017 (Table 2.9). The value of shipments originating from these industries was $40.1 billion (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020a). By comparison, the state’s overall manufacturing employment was 321,195 workers in 2017, and the value of shipments was $155.4 billion. Thus, food- and fiber-related manufacturing in Tennessee employed more than one in four manufacturing workers and generated nearly $1 out of every $4 in manufacturing shipments. Food processing accounted for 50.4 percent of the values of food- and fiber-related manufacturing shipments, followed by beverage and tobacco products at 18.5 percent and paper products at 14.2 percent. Other than a 3.9 percent
Table 2.9. Tennessee Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing, 2017a
a Values for animal slaughtering and processing are embedded in food manufacturing (311) values. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020a.
Manufacturing Industry (NAICS) Employees Payroll Establishments Shipments(number) (mill $) (number) (mill $)
Food (311) 33,365 $1,509 368 $20,218
Animal Slaughtering/ Processing (3116) 11,144 $380 62 $3,826
Beverage & Tobacco Products (312) 4,541 $262 157 $7,411
Textile Mills (313) 2,707 $141 45 $1,042
Textile Product Mills (314) 2,066 $79 121 $381
Apparel (315) 3,205 $83 83 $262
Leather & Allied Products (316) 424 $12 33 $33
Wood Products (321) 12,380 $483 476 $3,076
Paper (322) 11,178 $679 130 $5,684
Furniture & Related Products (337) 10,401 $427 301 $2,003
Total 80,267 $3,675 1,714 $40,110
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decline in shipments in 2014, food, beverage, and tobacco product manufacturing experienced 4.0 percent average annual growth from 2010 to 2017. During this same time frame, forest product manufacturing also experienced an average annual growth of 3.7 percent.
Economic Impacts From the Agri-forestry Industrial ComplexIn 2018, the agri-forestry industrial complex
(farming/landowner through manufacturing) directly contributed (without multiplier effects) $51.5 billion in economic activity to the state’s economy, adding 181.3 thousand jobs. The agri-forestry industrial complex contributed $14.9 billion in value-added. When accounting for multiplier
effects, the agri-forestry industrial complex added $79.3 billion to Tennessee’s economy or 10.9 percent of the state’s economic activity, accounting for 339.4 thousand jobs or 8.4 percent of all jobs. Agriculture, with multiplier effects, accounted for 8.1 percent of the state’s economy and generated $58.9 billion in output, adding close to 255,000 jobs, with over 95,000 employed (both full- and part-time) directly in agricultural production (IMPLAN Group, LLC., 2018 data). Based on 2018 IMPLAN, Table 2.10 indicates the direct economic activity for selected agriculture and forest sectors, including the multiplier effects for these sectors, along with their employment and total value-added. Table 2.10 displays the economic activity,
Table 2.10. Direct and Multiplier Effects for Economic Activity, Employment, and Total Value-Added for Selected Agriculture and Forest Industries in Tennessee, 2018
a Total Industry Output – annual value of production by industry.b Employment – estimated number of wage and salary employees (both full- and part-time), as well as self-employed.c Total Value Added – income to workers paid by employers; self-employed income; interests, rents, royalties, dividends, and profit payments; and production and import taxes.d Primarily hay & seed farming.e Primarily hogs, sheep & goats, aquaculture, equine, and apiculture.Source: IMPLAN Group, LLC., 2018 data
Direct Multiplier Effects
Economic Activitya Economic Activitya Employmentb Total Value Addedc
Sector (million $) (million $) (number) (million $)
Oilseed farming $677.0 $1,033.4 7,282.0 $489.5
Grain farming $534.2 $914.4 9,339.8 $369.9
Vegetable & melon farming $95.1 $174.3 2,427.0 $57.7
Fruit farming $12.9 $22.6 466.6 $7.8
Tree nut farming $2.1 $4.0 115.1 $1.6
Greenhouse, nursery & f loric. $303.3 $545.1 6,522.2 $209.3
Tobacco farming $100.0 $176.5 2,966.2 $72.7
Cotton farming $309.4 $560.6 6,509.5 $221.3
All other crop farmingd $146.6 $278.5 20,697.3 $105.9
Beef cattle farming $559.1 $896.1 19,537.7 $297.8
Dairy cattle & milk production $110.3 $193.2 1,072.0 $52.1
Poultry & egg production $612.4 $1,034.5 4,821.3 $233.8
Animal prod., except cattle & poultry & eggse $145.6 $191.0 4,668.4 $110.9
Forestry, forest prod., & timber tract $27.2 $51.2 555.7 $35.3
Commercial logging $298.4 $567.1 6,005.2 $338.6
Sawmills $812.0 $1,454.2 6,576.1 $530.7
Pulp mills $162.7 $282.9 865.2 $106.0
Paper mills $1,619.9 $2,593.7 6,925.7 $1,036.9
Paperboard mills $830.3 $1,418.3 3,970.0 $551.4
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employment, and total value-added for selected agriculture and forest industries.Rural Economies and Well-Being
Important contributors to the health of the agri-forestry complex are rural communities and their resources. In 2019, about 14.2 percent of Tennessee’s population lived in counties classified as rural. As classified here, rural counties had 2019 average populations of 22,037, while counties not classified as rural had average populations of 114,893 (Table 2.11). The state continues to become more urban in nature, as population growth in rural counties averaged 0.6 percent growth from 2010-2019, while counties classified as urban averaged 7.2 percent growth for that same period. The data in Table 8 also shows that rural counties had lower median household incomes, lower percentages of people aged 25 and over with four-year college degrees or greater, and higher unemployment and poverty rates than their urban counterparts.
Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic Beyond the Farm Gate
Food and Fiber Industry ImpactsThe U.S. Census Bureau conducted a
series of surveys regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on smaller businesses (less than 500 employees and single establishment) from the middle of May through the end of June. Analysis of the COVID-19 impact on smaller agricultural processing and marketing firms indicated that most analyzed businesses have suffered marked reductions in sales, but these impacts varied greatly among different types of small businesses (Hughes, 2020). For example, 71.0 percent of apparel manufacturers and 67.5 percent of beverage and tobacco product manufacturers reported large negative impacts. Approximately 23.9 percent of wood product manufacturers reported a large negative impact and 29.4 percent reported little or no effect. Overall, businesses reported a slight
improvement in activity between the middle of May and end of June (Hughes, 2020).The Tennessee Food and Beverage Industry and the Paycheck Protection Program
In order to offset some of the pandemic’s impacts upon small businesses, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was passed by Congress and signed into law by President Trump on March 27, 2020 (U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2020a). The package included over $2 trillion in economic relief to help offset the negative economic impacts of COVID-19. One of these small business assistance programs is the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), which is administered by the Small Business Administration through local lending institutions. The PPP is designed to assist small business owners with maintaining payrolls and other business operating expenses during the pandemic and associated economic downturn by providing over $660 billion in forgivable loans. The PPP was approved initially on April 3, 2020, and was extended through the PPP and Health Care Enhancement Act on April 24, 2020, which also added to the loan amount originally created under the CARES Act. While the original PPP loan application deadline was June 30, 2020, the PPP resumed accepting applications on July 6, 2020, in response to the President signing the program’s extension legislation. The application deadline was extended to August 8, 2020.
As can be seen in Table 2.12, from April 3
Table 2.11. Population, Household Income, Education Level, Unemployment, and Poverty
Across Rural County Status, Tennessee
Sources: Index Mundi, 2020; USDA/ERS, 2020b,c,g,h.
Measure Rural Urban
2019 Average Population Per County 22,037 114,893
2010-2019 Population Change 0.6% 7.2%
2014-2018 Median Household Income (2018$) $39,432 $49,761
2014-2018 Education Level, Persons 25 and Over (5-Yr Avg) Completed 4-Yr College or Higher 13.3% 20.3%
2015-2019 Unemployment Rates (Percent) 5.5% 4.5%
2014-2018 Poverty Rates 20.07% 16.00%
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through the first week in August, a total of 8,175 food and beverage firms in Tennessee had approved loans to help cover payroll through the PPP. This represents over half of all Tennessee food and beverage firms (Upendram et al., 2020). The levels of the market channel with the largest numbers of firms participating were restaurants, bars, and specialty food services, followed by food and beverage stores. In total, nearly $1.9 billion in loans were approved for Tennessee’s food and beverage industry from early April through early August. An estimated 150,048 jobs were retained under the PPP.
The Tennessee Green Industry and the Paycheck Protection Program
Table 2.13 presents an overview of the PPP loans approved for Tennessee’s nursery and greenhouse industry and the landscape service industry (Rihn and Jensen, 2020). A total of 102 nursery and greenhouse firms and 842 landscape service firms were approved for PPP loans. In
the nursery and greenhouse industry, PPP loans amounted to $8.25 million and retained an estimated 1,229 jobs. This equates to 1.49 jobs being retained per $10,000 in loans approved and an average loan amount of $6,715.33 per job retained. The landscape service industry received more loans, which amounted to $22.55 million and retained 4,257 jobs. An average of 1.89 jobs were retained for each $10,000 loans approved or an average of $5,297.19 loan per job retained.
Tennessee Household Food Sufficiency During the PandemicThe ability of households to obtain food is an
important indicator of their economic well-being. Food sufficiency captures a household’s ability to obtain enough food to meet their needs, and if they have enough food, the ability to obtain the types of food they want. To better understand how the pandemic has affected household well-being and food sufficiency, the U.S. Census Bureau initiated a new experimental survey in late April called the
Table 2.12. Tennessee Food and Beverage Industry PPP Loans, Loan Dollars, and Jobs Retained
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2020b.
PPP Loans Approved as of First Week in August, 2020
Industry Number of Loans Loan Dollars Approved Jobs Retained
Food and Beverage Manufacturing 436 $58,011,947 6,017
Food and Beverage Wholesaling 196 $63,689,335 4,832
Food and Beverage Stores 1,566 $980,173,977 11,807
Restaurants, Bars, and Specialty Food Services 5,977 $782,582,527 127,392
Total 8,175 $1,884,457,786 150,048
Table 2.13. Paycheck Protection Program Loans, Loan Amounts, and Jobs Retained for Tennessee’s Nursery, Greenhouse, and Landscape Service Industries
aData on the PPP loans reported were from between April 3, 2020, and June 19, 2020.bData on the PPP loans reported were from between April 3, 2020, and July 30, 2020.Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2020b.
Industry Number of Loans Approved
Loan Dollars Approved Jobs Retained
Avg. Loan Amount Per Job
Retained
Jobs Retained Per $10,000
Loans Approved
Nursery and Greenhouse Industrya 102 $8,253,139 1,229 $6,715.33 1.49
Landscape Service Industryb 842 $22,550,245 4,257 $5,297.19 1.89
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Household Pulse Survey (HPS) (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020b). Jensen, et al. (2020) utilized weekly data for Tennessee from the first wave of the survey, April 23 through May 26, and from the second wave of the study, August 19 through October 12.7 8
As part of the survey, households were asked about their ability to obtain food in the past seven days. Households that indicated they sometimes or often did not have enough to eat were labeled food insufficient. The survey also asked if households received free groceries or meals in the past seven days, which is another indicator of food insufficiency.
In each week of the survey between April 23 and May 26, an average of 525,000 households, or approximately one in 10 households in Tennessee, indicated they were food insufficient. A similar number of households, approximately one in 10, indicated that they were food insufficient during the August 19 through October 12 time period as well. Of the currently food-insufficient households in the first wave of the survey, an average of 163,000 households per survey week indicated that they were newly food insufficient and had not experienced food insufficiency prior to March 13, 2020.
Households with children had higher rates of food insufficiency in nearly every week of the two survey waves. During April 23 to May 26 and August 19 through October 12, approximately 14 percent of households with children indicated they were food insufficient.
The use of free meals or groceries by food-insufficient households was highest during August 19 through September 28. In late April, about one in seven food-insufficient households received free meals or groceries in the past week; by mid-July that had increased to one in three households and declined to approximately 13 percent of households in later weeks. School lunches and food pantries or banks were consistently two of the most-used sources of free foods.7 This time period captures the end of the statewide stay-at-home order, which formally ended on April 30, and the beginning of the reopening.8 During the first wave of the survey, April 23 through May 26, there were four time periods of survey data: April 23-May 5, May 7-May 12, May 14-May 19, and May 21-26. Only the first time period of the survey (April 23-May 5) collected data for more than one week and that was due to sampling issues associated with starting a new survey. Every other time period collected data for one week and asked about households’ current status or behavior in the past week. In the second wave of the survey, August 19 through September 28, data was collected for a two-week time period before being released. However, households were still asked about their status in the past seven days. Therefore, for the purposes of this report, we refer to the results of the survey in terms of weekly outcomes.
Food-insufficient households were also asked to rate their confidence in their ability to afford food in the next four weeks. In late April, nearly 57 percent of food-insufficient households were not at all confident they could afford food in the next four weeks. This percentage declined to below 36 percent in early May, but by late May, it was back up to nearly 53 percent and stayed at about 50 percent through the beginning of October.
Compared to food-sufficient households, food-insufficient households were more likely to be younger, have children in the household, have a high school education, an income in 2019 below $35,000, and be unemployed.
Summary
Tennessee’s agri-forestry industrial complex from the farmer/landowner to the manufacturer provides about $51.5 billion in economic activity to the state’s economy, adding 181.3 thousand jobs, and with multiplier effects, this is $79.3 billion to Tennessee’s economy or 10.9 percent of the state’s economic activity, accounting for 339.4 thousand jobs or 8.4 percent of all jobs. Farming operations occupy around 40 percent of the state’s nearly 27.0 million acres of land area, with just under half of this farmland in cropland. Tennessee’s farms tend to be smaller in size (155 acres) than the U.S. average. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2019, net farm income rose markedly from $297 million in 2018 to $880 million in 2019.
The well-being of Tennessee’s farming operations are tied in part to trends in national and international markets. In 2020, market forces shaped by COVID-19 have impacted the food and fiber sector in a variety of ways, from the farmer, through processors and manufacturers, to retailers, restaurants and bars, to households.
Although the pandemic was projected to neg-atively affect Tennessee’s farmers, CFAP payments
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to farmers helped offset some of these losses, with payments at over $132.6 million and 21,223 appli-cations. Under the CFAP 1, the top five commodi-ties receiving payments were: cattle ($85.1 million); cotton ($15.6 million); corn ($14.6 million); milk ($7.94 million); and soybeans ($4.8 million).
Looking forward into 2021, crop prices have improved compared to 2019/20; however, prices remain highly uncertain, being influenced by ex-port sales, domestic weather and planting condi-tions, South American crop progress, global weath-er, intensification/mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic, and global economic growth. The livestock and poultry sectors will see little reason for expansion, perhaps with the exception of pork due to trade with China. Trade has been impacted by the pandemic and the resulting global economic slowdown, with most marked effects on Tennes-see’s agricultural and related exports being cotton and forest products. The economic impacts of the beef payments alone added over $150 million to the state’s economy and increased Gross Regional Product $122 million (English et al., 2020).
Tennessee’s green industry has seen mixed effects from the pandemic. During the first weeks of the pandemic, firms in the nursery, greenhouse and landscape service industries received aid from PPP loans for payroll and operating expenses. While stay-at-home orders and consumers’ percep-tions of gardening as a means to improve personal health resulted in more homeowners gardening, longer-term impacts of reduced household in-comes could have negative impacts on demand for green industry goods.
Beyond the farm gate, agribusinesses have been impacted greatly by the pandemic. The state and national food and beverage industries have shown great resiliency. Initially, they were faced with supply chain disruptions in the early weeks of the pandemic. These disruptions have diminished over time. The food and beverage industries have also faced changes in demands for grocery retail products resulting from initial stockpiling and then from changes in employ-ment (reduced or losses in employment).
Changes have occurred with respect to consumer eating and drinking inside restaurants
and bars and also consumer online shopping for groceries. As the pandemic resolves, it is difficult to predict how much of these changes in food shopping will return to pre-pandemic levels. As stay-at-home orders were put in place and services of restaurants and bars limited in some areas in an effort to control spread of the virus, the state’s food and beverage industry was greatly impacted. The impacts nationally on small businesses were evidenced by large percentages stating the pandem-ic had caused major business disruptions during the first weeks of the pandemic.
Business disruptions among Tennessee’s food and beverage industries were evidenced by their par-ticipation in the PPP to help meet payroll and retain jobs. Notably, among Tennessee’s food and beverage industries, about one in two businesses participated in the PPP. The largest share of these by far were restaurants and bars. The jobs retained through the PPP by food and beverage businesses overall in Tennessee was projected at over 150,000 jobs.
Demand for food and beverages has also been impacted by households’ ability to pay for food. The ability of households in Tennessee to obtain suffi-cient food diminished during the pandemic. During April and May and in mid-August through early October, about one in 10 households in Tennessee indicated they were food insufficient. Of increased concern is that of the food-insufficient households, about 31 percent of these were newly food insuf-ficient. Furthermore, among the food-insufficient households, about half were not at all confident they could afford food in the next four weeks. Of partic-ular concern is that food-insufficient households are lower income, more likely to be unemployed, and more likely to have children in the household than those that are food sufficient.
Tennessee’s unemployment rates spiked in April 2020 but began falling through the summer. While hinting at possible beginnings of recovery, sustained recovery within the food and fiber sector in the coming months will greatly depend on the trajectory of the pandemic and associated mea-sures to control COVID-19’s spread; Tennessee households’ ability to afford food and beverages and confidence in eating and drinking out and
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2.5. TENNESSEE’S AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST INDUSTRIES AND RURAL ECONOMY, CONTINUED
shopping in stores; and national and international market forces and shaping commodity markets.References
English, B.C., R.J. Menard, S.A. Smith, A.P. Griffith, C. Martinez, and K. Jensen. 2020. Estimated Economic Impacts of the COVID-19 Virus on Tennessee Beef Cattle Producers. Agri-Industry Modeling & Analysis Group, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee. AREC COVID RR04. Available at https://ag.tennessee.edu/arec/Documents/publications/AREC_COVID_RR04_Beef.pdf.
Hughes, D.W. 2020. COVID-19 Impact on Activity for Smaller Agricultural Processing and Marketing Firms: May 17-23, 2020, Versus June 21-27, 2020. University of Tennessee Extension publication W 924. Available at https://extension.tennessee.edu/publications/Documents/W924.pdf.
IMPLAN Group, LLC. IMPLAN 2018. Huntersville, NC. IMPLAN.com.
Index Mundi. 2020. Tennessee Median Household Income (in 2018 dollars), 2014-2018 by County. Available at https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/united-states/quick-facts/tennessee/median-household-income#table.
Jensen, K.L., R.J. Menard, J. Yenerall, and D.W. Hughes. 2020. COVID-19 Impact on Tennessee Household Food Sufficiency. Agri-Industry Modeling & Analysis Group report, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee. AREC COVID RR01. Available at https://ag.tennessee.edu/arec/Documents/publications/AREC_COVID_RR01.pdf.
Muhammad. A. and S.A. Smith. 2020. The U.S.-China Phase One Trade Agreement: Implications for U.S. Agriculture. University of Tennessee Extension publication W 892. Available at https://extension.tennessee.edu/publications/Documents/W892.pdf.
Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). 2020. Interim Report on the Economic and Trade Agreement Between the United States of America
and the People’s Republic of China, Agricultural Trade. Available at https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/assets/files/interim-report-on-agricultural-trade-between-the-united-states-and-china-final.pdf.
Rihn, A. and K. Jensen. 2020. Paycheck Protection Program Participation in Tennessee’s Green Industry April 3-June 30, 2020. University of Tennessee Extension publication W-937. Available at https://extension.tennessee.edu/publications/Documents/w937.pdf.
Statista. 2020. Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Monthly Retail Sales Development in the United States 2020, by Retail Sector. Available at https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104316/coronavirus-month-over-month-retail-sales-development-by-sector-us/.
Tennessee Department of Transportation. 2019. Governor and Commissioner Release Transportation Improvement Plan for 2020-2022. Available at https://www.tn.gov/tdot/news/2019/4/18/governor-and-commissioner-release-transportation-improvement-plan-for-2020-2022.html.
Tennessee Forestry Association. 2020. 2013 Tennessee Forest Facts. Available at https://www.tnforestry.com/forest-facts.
TRIP. 2020. Key Facts About Tennessee’s Surface Transportation System. https://tripnet.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TRIP_Fact_Sheet_TN.pdf.
Upendram, S., K.L. Jensen, A. Rihn, J. Yenerall, and E. Loveday. 2020. Paycheck Protection Program Participation by Tennessee’s Food and Beverage Industry, April 3-June 30, 2020. University of Tennessee Extension publication W 958. Available at: https://extension.tennessee.edu/publications/Documents/W958.pdf.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2020a. All Sectors: Summary Statistics for the U.S., States, and Selected Geographies: 2017. Available at https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?tid=ECNBASIC2017.EC1700BASIC& hidePreview=true.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2020b. Household Pulse Survey: Measuring Social and Economic Impacts During the Coronavirus Pandemic. Available at https://www.
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census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey.html.
U.S. Dairy Export Council. 2020. Historical Data. Available at https://www.usdec.org/research-and-data/market-information/us-export-data.
U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). How Does the Paycheck Protection Program of 2020 Impact the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs)? Available at https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/1408. Accessed 7/28/2020.
U.S. Department of the Treasury. 2020a. The CARES Act Works for All Americans. Available at https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/cares.
U.S. Department of the Treasury. 2020b. SBA Paycheck Protection Program Loan Level Data. Available at https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/cares-act/assistance-for-small-businesses/sba-paycheck-protection-program-loan-level-data. Accessed 7/28/2020.
USDA Forest Service. 2020. Forest Inventory and Analysis National Program. State Fact Sheets. Forests of Tennessee, 2017. Available at https://www.fia.fs.fed.us/.
USDA/AMS. 2020a. Estimated Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection. Available at https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/sj_ls712.txt.
USDA/AMS. 2020b. Grain Transportation Report, October 22, 2020. https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTR10222020.pdf.
USDA/AMS. 2020c. MISC. POULTRY: Weekly Poultry Slaughtered Under Federal Inspection. Available at https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_py017.txt.
USDA/AMS. 2020d. Tennessee Feeder Cattle Weekly Summary, 2019 and 2020 Various Issues. Available at https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2063.pdf.
USDA/AMS. 2020e. Uniform Milk Price. Available at https://www.ams.usda.gov/resources/marketing-order-statistics/uniform-price.
USDA/ERS. 2020a. Cash Receipts by State, Tennessee. Available at https://data.ers.usda.gov/reports.
aspx?ID=17843#P3242856008c74256a0f81b08ec6038e6_2_17iT0R0x42.
USDA/ERS. 2020b. County-level Data Sets. Available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/county-level-data-sets/.
USDA/ERS. 2020c. County Typology Codes. Available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/county-typology-codes/.
USDA/ERS. 2020d. Federal Government Direct Farm Program Payments. Available at https://data.ers.usda.gov/reports.aspx?ID=17833#P86198ebcc72349d691c5515559f0fc2c_4_118iT0R0x42.
USDA/ERS. 2020e. Farm Income and Wealth Statistics. Available at https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/farm-income-and-wealth-statistics/data-files-us-and-state-level-farm-income-and-wealth-statistics/.
USDA/ERS. 2020f. Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2020. Available at https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=99227.
USDA/ERS. 2020g. Rural-Urban Continuum Codes. Available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/rural-urban-continuum-codes.aspx.
USDA/ERS. 2020h. Tennessee: Charts and Maps About Your State. Available at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/farm-income-and-wealth-statistics/charts-and-maps-about-your-state/.
USDA/FSA. 2020a. Coronavirus Food Assistance Program 1 Data. Available at https://www.farmers.gov/cfap1/data.
USDA/FSA. 2020b. Coronavirus Food Assistance Program 2. Available at https://www.farmers.gov/sites/default/files/documents/cfap2-data-10-13-2020.pdf.
USDA/FAS. 2020c. Global Agricultural Trade System. Available at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/Gats/default.aspx.
USDA/NASS. 2020a. Grain Stocks, January 10, 2020. Available at: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/grst0120.pdf.
USDA/NASS. 2020b. Milk Production. Available at https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/
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usda-esmis/files/h989r321c/gm80jk43m/r494w897r/mkpr0920.pdf.
USDA/NASS. 2020c. January 1 Cattle Inventory. Available at https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/h702q636h/rb68xv24k/76537h73d/catl0120.pdf.
USDA/NASS. 2020d. January 1 Sheep and Goat Inventory. Available at https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/000000018/n296xf83n/m900pb410/shep0120.pdf
USDA/NASS. 2020e. QuickStats: Tennessee. Available at https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/.
USDA/RMA. 2020. Summary of Business Report: National Summary by State. Available at https://prodwebnlb.rma.usda.gov/apps/SummaryOfBusiness/PreparedReports.
U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). 2020. Export Statistics. Available at https://www.usmef.org/news-statistics/statistics/.
U.S. Trade Representative. 2020. Interim Report on the Economic and Trade Agreement between the United States of America and the People's Republic of China: AGRICULTURAL TRADE. Available at: https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/assets/files/interim-report-on-agricultural-trade-between-the-united-states-and-china-final.pdf?source=news_body_link.
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CHAPTER 3: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
In this Chapter —
3.1. Introduction
3.2. Nonfarm Employment
3.3. Unemployment
3.4. Population & Labor Force
3.5. Income, Earnings & Output 3.6. ForecastataGlance
3.1. INTRODUCTION
Previous chapters have examined the short-term, 10 quarters ahead, outlook for both the national and state economies. The short-term projections are based on a cyclical forecast, which is largely driven by the ups and downs of the business cycle. Fluctuations in the current business cycle are more volatile than in previous years, and largely depend on the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and pandemic-related responses. In contrast, this chapter takes a longer-term view of economic growth in Tennessee. In this chapter, we examine the state’s growth path over the last 10 years as well as its projected path over the next 10 years. In addition to presenting a retrospective on the state economy, we also examine some current and historical county and regional differences across Tennessee.
Recessions are not built into the long-term outlook as they are unpredictable by nature. Since the Great Depression, the average gap between two recessions (i.e. the economic expansion period) has been roughly 5 years. However, more recent expansion periods have tended to last longer, with two of the last three lasting for 10
years or more. While the economy is currently digging out of a pandemic-induced recession, it is certainly conceivable that another recession will occur at some point during the long-term 10-year forecast horizon.
Between 2010 and 2019, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) advanced at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4 percent per year and slightly outpaced national output growth of 2.3 percent per year. Over the next decade, real GDP in Tennessee will see compound annual growth of 2.3 percent per year (between 2020 and 2030), versus a projected 2.6 percent per year for the national economy. Economic growth over the first few years of the new decade will be pretty volatile due to the pandemic and eventual economic recovery, with a sharp contraction in real GDP in 2020 and then relatively strong positive growth in 2021 and 2022. As noted in Chapter 2, we project that real GDP in Tennessee will recover to its pre-pandemic 2019 level by the end of 2022. After which, the state will settle into a more stable growth pattern, with compound annual growth of 2.1 percent per year from 2023 to 2030.
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3.1. INTRODUCTION, CONTINUED
3.2. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
Unemployment rates, which spiked in 2020, will quickly fall over the next few years as the economy digs out of the recession’s trough. The state’s annual average unemployment rate will rise to 7.5 percent in 2020 (a 4.1 percentage point increase compared to the 2019 annual average), but will quickly fall to 5.2 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022. As the job market continues to recover, the unemployment rate will fall at a slower rate, hitting 4.0 percent in 2025 before resting at 3.9 percent for the remainder of the decade.
Nonfarm jobs in Tennessee will grow by a compound annual growth rate of 1.3 percent per year between 2020 and 2030, versus 1.2 percent
for the nation as a whole. A relatively strong rate of employment growth is projected for 2021 and 2022 as jobs lost during the pandemic are added back to payrolls, while a more moderate pace of job growth is projected for the second half of the decade. Manufacturing employment in the state will be relatively flat over the ensuing decade, advancing by 0.4 percent per year (CAGR) between 2020 and 2030 and picking up 15,000 more workers over the ten-year period. By comparison, nationwide manufacturing employment will shrink by 0.2 percent per year (CAGR) as manufacturers continue to retool and rely more heavily on advanced manufacturing and automation.
From 2010 to 2020, nonfarm employment in Tennessee grew by 15.0 percent. This is equivalent to a decent 1.4 percent compound annual growth rate. Over the last decade, job growth in Tennessee outpaced national job growth of 0.9 percent per year (CAGR). Employment growth at both the state and national levels would have been stronger had it not been for the dramatic loss of jobs this past spring due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Table 3.1 provides a historical view of Tennessee’s labor market as well as the long-term employment outlook ten years from now. For a perspective as to how the pandemic impacted long term job growth, the right side of the table presents employment growth rates for 2010 through 2019 as well as for 2010 through 2020. From 2010 to 2019, nonfarm employment in Tennessee grew by 19.4 percent (or 2.0 percent per year, CAGR), but due to the pandemic, average employment growth for the decade fell from 2.0 percent per year to 1.4 percent per year. A similar pattern holds true for the national workforce, which was on pace to grow by 1.7 percent per year (from 2010 to 2019), but average growth fell to 0.9 percent per year once 2020 employment figures are included.
Since 2010, manufacturing employment in Tennessee has seen relatively strong growth, advancing by an average rate of 2.0 percent per year from 2010 to 2019, and outpacing the 1.2 percent CAGR for the nation as a whole. The service sectors also saw robust job growth from 2010 to 2019. Jobs in professional and business services increased by 3.8 percent per year and employment in the leisure and hospitality sector grew by 3.2 percent per year from 2010 to 2019. However, employment levels in both leisure and hospitality and the manufacturing sector were slashed during the pandemic. Comparing the growth rates of 2010 through 2019 versus 2010 through 2020, we see that manufacturing employment growth fell from 2.0 percent per year from 2010 through 2019 to only 1.0 percent per year from 2010 through 2020 as more than 26 thousand manufacturing jobs were lost in 2020. Similarly, the rate of job growth in the leisure and hospitality sector fell from an average of 3.2 percent per year from 2010 to 2019 to 1.5 percent per year once 2020 jobs data are included, as nearly 45 thousand leisure and hospitality jobs were lost in 2020. Expectations are that leisure and hospitality will fully recover
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3.2. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT, CONTINUED
and see strong job gains over the next decade, as job growth will average 2.5 percent per year from 2020 to 2030. As a result, there will be nearly 40 thousand more leisure and hospitality workers in Tennessee in 2030 than there were in 2019, prior to the pandemic.
Manufacturing employment on the other hand is projected to stay depressed due to lackluster global demand and a continued reliance on automation. Figure 3.1 presents the projected employment growth trajectory for both the state’s and nation’s manufacturing sectors. In Tennessee, manufacturing employment will only grow by 0.5 percent per year (CAGR) between 2020 and 2030, and employment levels in 2030 will remain below pre-pandemic peak levels –in 2030 there will be 12.3 thousand fewer manufacturing workers in Tennessee than there were in 2019, prior to the pandemic. The manufacturing employment outlook is even worse at the national level, where manufacturing employment is projected to fall by 0.2 percent per year over the next ten years. Tennessee will likely avoid
contractions with the help of healthy job gains in transportation equipment manufacturing, due to a strong presence by companies such as Denso, and planned expansions by Volkswagen and General Motors (the latter recently announced a $2 billion expansion to produce electric vehicles in Spring Hill, TN).
The overall nonfarm employment outlook for Tennessee and the nation, extending out to 2030, is presented in Figure 3.2. Both the state and nation saw large labor force contractions in 2020 due to the pandemic, and are projected to see a large upswing in employment growth over the next few years as the job markets recover. After which, employment growth will slow markedly in the second half of the decade due to slower population growth and an ageing workforce.
Figure 3.3 presents employment growth patterns across all Tennessee counties between the first quarter of 2010 and first quarter of 2020 (prior to any adverse economic effects from the pandemic). Over the last decade there were 12 counties that saw shrinking labor
Table 3.1: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment in TN by Broad Sector (thousands of jobs)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS, Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research.*Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).
Employment Growth Rate*
2010 2019 2020 2030 2010 to 2019
2010 to 2020
2020 to 2030
Total Nonfarm 2614.9 3123.0 3007.0 3436.6 1.99% 1.41% 1.34%
Natural Resources, Mining & Construction 105.1 134.2 131.7 153.0 2.75% 2.29% 1.50%
Manufacturing 296.9 355.1 327.8 342.8 2.01% 1.00% 0.45%
Trade, Transportation, Utilities 553.2 639.3 636.9 652.6 1.62% 1.42% 0.24%
Information 45.3 45.5 43.8 44.6 0.05% -0.34% 0.19%
Financial Activities 139.8 172.3 174.2 191.3 2.35% 2.22% 0.94%
Professional & Business Services 305.4 426.8 408.8 538.1 3.79% 2.96% 2.79%
Education & Health Services 375.6 441.9 433.7 530.3 1.82% 1.45% 2.03%
Leisure & Hospitality 262.0 349.0 304.4 388.8 3.24% 1.51% 2.48%
Other Services 101.2 121.2 115.5 130.6 2.03% 1.34% 1.23%
Government 430.6 437.8 429.3 464.3 0.18% -0.03% 0.79%
US nonfarm (in millions) 130.3 150.9 142.4 160.7 1.65% 0.89% 1.21%
US manufacturing (in millions) 11.5 12.8 12.2 12.0 1.20% 0.60% -0.22%
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3.2. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT, CONTINUED
Figure 3.2: Nonfarm Job Growth Will See a Strong Post Pandemic Recovery Before Reverting Back to its Slower Long Term Trend
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS, and Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research.
Figure 3.1: Tennessee Will See Slow but Positive Manufacturing Employment Growth Over the Long Term While the U.S. Manufacturing Sector Will See Labor Force Contractions
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS, and Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research.
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3.2. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT, CONTINUED
forces. However, all 12 of these counties are relatively small. Clay County was hit the hardest, seeing a 14.2 percent decline in jobs, followed by Carroll County, where employment shrunk by 9.3 percent. But given their relatively small populations, these large percentage point declines represent labor force reductions of 216 and 676 jobs respectively. In fact, among all 12 counties with negative job growth, the largest labor forces were in Dyer and Bedford. Dyer County had 16,242 workers in 2010, but lost 1,081 jobs (down 6.7 percent) over the last decade, and Bedford County, started with 16,902 workers in 2010 but this tally fell by 720 (or 4.3 percent) over the 10- year period. There were an additional 22 counties with employment growth below 10 percent –half of the state average growth rate of 19.8 percent. Most notably, Shelby County saw a very modest 7.4 percent rate of job growth over the 10-year period, representing an addition of 33,933 jobs to the more than 450 thousand job tally in 2010. In contrast, there were 34 counties to see job growth of 20 percent or more. Moore County saw the strongest rate of job growth, expanding by a robust 71.6 percent. However, due to Moore County’s small size, this only represented a net gain of 1,026 jobs. Williamson County had the second strongest rate of job growth, at 64.3 percent, which represented a more sizeable addition of 55,037 new jobs. In addition, Davidson County grew by 24.4 percent or a robust 100,718 jobs, and in Rutherford County employment increased by 44.0 percent or 41,070 jobs. In total, Tennessee added roughly 500 thousand jobs to the state economy over the last ten years. Nearly 40 percent of these new jobs came from these three counties in Middle Tennessee –Davidson, Rutherford, and Williamson. The other larger Tennessee counties saw more modest rates of employment growth. Hamilton County saw employment growth of 16.8 percent or 29,818, and in Knox County employment advanced by 13.8 percent representing a net addition of 29,219 jobs.
Figure 3.4 presents manufacturing employment growth by Tennessee county for
the same 10-year period, 2010Q1 to 2020Q1. Tennessee saw relatively strong growth in the manufacturing sector, as employment grew by 19.2 percent between 2010 and 2020, far outpacing the 11.8 percent rate of growth for the nation as a whole. There were 56 Tennessee counties which saw manufacturing employment gains that outpaced the national average, 45 of which also outpaced the state’s average growth rate. Some notable highlights are listed below.
• Rutherford County added 8,390 new manufacturing jobs over the last decade, representing a 49.2 percent increase compared to the first quarter of 2010. Manufacturing has been a vital economic growth engine for Rutherford County due to a strong presence in transportation equipment manufacturing (e.g. Nissan and Bridgestone Americas) as well food products (e.g. General Mills).
• Maury County added more than 4,000 manufacturing jobs over the last decade, representing a 140.3 percent increase compared to the first quarter of 2010. Strong manufacturing job growth in Maury should continue in the near term with the recent General Motor expansion announcement.
• Hamilton County saw manufacturing employment increase by 18.2 percent, representing an addition of 3,798 workers, as Volkswagen expanded its facilities in Chattanooga over the last decade.
• Sumner County added 3,207 new workers (up 67.6 percent), due in part to a strong presence in motor vehicle parts manufacturing.
• Manufacturing employment in McMinn County grew by 80.5 percent, representing an increase of 3,145 new workers, and Blount County saw employment growth of 52.4 percent, representing a net addition of 2,883 workers –Denso added or expanded facilities in both McMinn and Blount over the last decade.
In contrast, 25 counties had employment losses in the manufacturing sector, 7 of which saw contractions of 20 percent or worse. Most notably, Shelby County lost 2,843 jobs over the last 10 years, representing an 8.1 percent contraction.
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3.2. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT, CONTINUEDFi
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3.3. UEMPLOYMENT
Prior to the pandemic recession, the economy was enjoying the longest economic expansion period on record. As a result, unemployment rates in Tennessee and the nation trended downwards over the last ten years. In the wake of the Great Recession, the state unemployment rate rose to a high of 10.5 percent in 2009 but had fallen in each year since. By 2014 it had fallen to 6.6 percent and in 2019 the state’s annual average unemployment rate had declined to an all-time low of 3.4 percent. Figure 3.5 shows this historical trajectory as well as long-term unemployment rate projections for both the state and nation. Over the last ten years, Tennessee’s unemployment rates has tracked its national counterpart very closely, with both sitting below 4 percent for the last few years. Things of course took a turn for the worse during the spring of 2020 as the rapid spread of COVID-19 led to widespread job losses. As a result, the unemployment rate will spike in 2020, reaching 7.5 percent for the state and 8.1 percent for the nation as a whole (annual averages). The state’s unemployment rate is projected to descend quickly over the next two years, falling
to 5.2 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022, as the economy recovers from the pandemic shock. Though, as we discuss in Chapter 2 and Chapter 4, the economic recovery thus far has been rather uneven, with some economic sectors and population segments seeing swift rebounds while others are still reeling from the pandemic’s economic fallout. Declines in the unemployment rate will then moderate as the economy reverts back to more normal long run growth trends. As a result, the state unemployment rate will fall to 4.0 percent by 2025, and then inch down to 3.9 percent in 2026, where it will rest for the remainder of the long-term forecast horizon.
Figure 3.6 reports non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates across all Tennessee counties for August 2010 and August 2020. In 2010, the state was still dealing with the fallout from the Great Recession, and the state unemployment rate sat at an elevated 9.3 percent. Ten years later, in August of 2020, the state unemployment rate finds itself at a similarly elevated 8.6 percent, as Tennessee, the nation, and the world, continue to grapple with the coronavirus pandemic.
Figure 3.5: Following a Massive Spike in 2020, the Unemployment Rate will Trend Downward through the Rest of the Long-Term Forecast Horizon
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS.
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3.3. UEMPLOYMENT, CONTINUEDFi
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3.3. UEMPLOYMENT, CONTINUED
Source: TN Department of HealthNote: Rate is per 1,000 population
While the state unemployment rate is similar across these two time periods, patterns of unemployment rates across Tennessee counties differ greatly between this current recession and in August 2010. In August of 2010, it was the counties near or containing the larger metro areas with relatively low unemployment, while the rest of the state lagged behind. For example, Williamson County, at 6.4 percent, had the lowest unemployment rate in the state in 2010, and Knox, Davidson, Hamilton, and Rutherford all had unemployment rates below the state average. In 2010, Shelby County was the one exception, with an unemployment rate of 9.6 percent, which was slightly above the state average. In 2010, there were 63 counties with unemployment rates in the double-digits. The
majority of which were smaller rural counties. Now, fast forward ten years and we’re faced with a new crisis. A health crisis that makes larger, more densely populated areas more vulnerable, and one that has had an outsized adverse impact on the leisure and hospitality sector which is a big economic driver in the state’s larger metro areas. In August 2020, there were three counties with double digit unemployment rates. Two of which contain larger metro areas. Shelby County at 13.4 percent and Davidson County at 10.4 percent. By comparison, some of the smaller more rural counties now have relatively lower unemployment rates than their larger counterparts. These maps illustrate how the pandemic has, at least momentarily, flipped long standing labor market trends.
3.4. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE
In the long term, population growth is an important driver of overall economic activity by directly impacting the size of the labor force. From 2010 to 2020, Tennessee’s population grew by 8.5 percent, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of 0.8 percent per year. This was slightly faster than the 7.4 percent rate of growth (0.7 percent CAGR) recorded for the nation as a whole. Population growth is projected to slow over the next ten years, as Tennessee will only see a 7.4 percent increase and the U.S. population will advance by 6.8 percent. Population change is driven by three components –births, deaths, and net migration (in-migration minus out-migration), two of which (births and deaths), are putting downward pressure on population growth in Tennessee.
Birth rates have been on a downward trend since the Great Recession. In 2007 there were nearly 87 thousand live births in the state, but in 2018 there were fewer than 81 thousand. This is largely due to a dramatic decline in birthrates among younger mothers (under 25 years of age), while birthrates among women over 35 have only risen modestly (see Table 3.2). While birthrates
have fallen across the state, deaths have been on the rise. In 2009 there were roughly 58 thousand deaths recorded in the state, but in 2018 there were over 70 thousand, representing a 20 percent increase. An ageing population is partially to blame for the rising death toll. But accidental deaths, such as those from car crashes and drug overdoses have also risen over time. In 2009 there were 3,148 accidental deaths, whereas in 2018 there were 4,480, representing a 42.3 percent increase.
Counteracting these downward pressures has been net migration, which has seen an uptick in recent years. Figure 3.7 shows the ebbs and
Age of Mother 2007 Birth Rate 2019 Birth Rate
18 to 19 93.4 48.5
20 to 24 128.1 88.6
25 to 34 99.7 96.1
35 to 44 19.8 25.2
All ages 14.2 11.9
Table 3.2: Birthrates in Tennessee Have Fallen For Women in Most Age Groups
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Figure 3.7: Net Migration into Tennessee, a Crucial Component of Population Growth, has Risen in Recent Years
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
flows of total net migration into Tennessee per year over the last two decades. In 2009, the state gained roughly 30 thousand new residents through migration. Conversely, over the last three years (2017 to 2019), the state added an average of 49 thousand new residents per year. However, this is still below peak net migration levels prior to the Great Recession, when Tennessee averaged 57.5 thousand new residents per year (from 2005 to 2007).
Population levels and population growth are good gauges of labor force quantity, an important driver of long term economic growth. However, labor force quality is another important factor. The quantity of labor provides information about how many hours can be worked, while the quality of labor provides insight as to how productive each hour of work can be. In general, workforce quality is difficult to measure, but education and health status are relatively good proxies. A more educated workforce, on average, can produce goods and services more efficiently, while healthier workers can work more intensely and generally miss fewer days of work. On average, more educated workers also earn higher wages and have the ability to purchase more goods and services, thereby
stimulating further economic activity and growth. In general however, Tennesseans have lower educational attainment rates and poorer health status than their national counterparts.
Figure 3.8 shows educational attainment rates for both the state and nation in 2010, 2015, and 2019. Panel A reports the percentage of the population, aged 25 years and older, with a high school degree or higher. Tennessee’s high school attainment rate has consistently trailed that of the nation’s, but the state has caught up significantly over the last ten years. In 2010, Tennessee’s high school attainment rate was 2.3 percentage points below the national average, but by 2019, Tennessee only trailed the nation by 0.6 percentage points. This is an incredibly encouraging trend. Panel B shows the percentage of the population with a Bachelor’s degree or higher. Again, Tennessee lags behind the nation and is seeing an upward trend in college attainment rates. However, Tennessee is not making up nearly enough ground to catch up to the national average. In 2010, the state’s college attainment rate was 5.1 percentage points below the national average, and in 2019 the difference is down to 4.4 percentage points.
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So again, Tennessee is certainly catching up, but still has a long way to go. Ambitious education initiatives such as the Drive to 55 with a goal of increasing the percentage of Tennesseans with a college degree (associate, Bachelor’s, or advanced degree) or a higher education certificate to 55 percent of the state population by 2025, and the Tennessee Promise which offers two years of tuition-free community college or technical college to Tennessee high school graduates, are big steps in the right direction for improving educational attainment in the state, and if sustained could have
a positive impact on long-term economic growth.Figure 3.9 shows that lower college
attainment rates (Bachelor’s degree or higher) is not unique to Tennessee but is an issue for the southeast region as a whole. Virginia, at 39.6 percent, is the only state in the southeast region with a college attainment rate above the national average of 33.1 percent. Georgia (32.5 percent) and North Carolina (32.3 percent) are not far behind the national average, while Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and West Virginia have college attainment rates of 25 percent or less.
Figure 3.8: Educational Attainment Rates in Tennessee are Lower than the National Average
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1-Year American Community Survey Estimates.
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 1-Year American Community Survey Estimates.
Figure 3.9: Educational Attainment: Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
This is important because there is a strong link between educational attainment and labor force engagement, as well as between educational attainment and earnings. Therefore, any improvements in educational attainment can have a lasting positive impact on economic growth. Using national data, Figure 3.10 shows that those with higher educational attainment levels have higher earnings, on average, and Figure 3.11 shows that unemployment rates are lower among those with higher levels of education. This relationship has been especially important during the pandemic, when rates of unemployment rose rapidly across the country. In April, unemployment rates shot up across the country and across the entire educational attainment distribution. However, the rate of job loss was much more extreme among those with lower educational attainment levels. Among those with less than a high school diploma, the national unemployment rate shot up to 20.3 percent in April (from 8.1 percent in
March), and for those with a high school degree but no college experience, the unemployment rate went from 4.8 percent in March to 17.0 percent in April. By comparison, unemployment rates among those with a Bachelor’s or graduate degree remained below 10 percent during the height of the pandemic recession (see Figure 3.12). Thus, education provided a bit of a buffer from the negative employment shock of the pandemic.
The overall health status of a population is another important component of workforce quality. Unfortunately, however, Tennessee ranks poorly in this regard as well. According to the 2019 annual report of American Health Rankings, a state-by-state analysis of the relative health of populations across the U.S., Tennessee ranks 44th in overall health status, ahead of only Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. Poor health status in Tennessee is due to a number of factors, including a high prevalence of smoking, obesity, and diabetes, as well as relatively
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Figure 3.10: Median Earnings are Higher Among those with Higher Educational Attainment
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 1-Year American Community Survey Estimates.
Figure 3.11: Unemployment Rates are Lower Among those with Higher Educational Attainment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
high mortality rates related to cancer, cardiovascular disease, and drug usage. This has also become especially important during the pandemic, as these are all risk factors associated with more severe COVID-19 cases which are more likely to lead to hospitalization and death.
Figure 3.13, shows how obesity rates (as
measured by a body mass index (BMI) above 30) in Tennessee have changed over time, and how they compare to the national average. Since 2011, obesity rates have unfortunately trended upward across the nation. However, the obesity rate in Tennessee has consistently been higher than the U.S. average. In 2019, 36.5 percent of the state’s adult population
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Figure 3.12: In April, Unemployment Rates Rose Nationwide, but the Spike was Much More Pronounced for Those with Lower Educational Attainment Levels
U.S. unemployment rates for the population 25 years and older
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Not seasonally adjusted.
had a BMI above 30, compared to 32.4 percent for the nation as a whole. In 2019, Tennessee also had the eighth highest adult smoking rate in the country, at 19.9 percent. Encouragingly, the state has seen a downward trend in tobacco use over the last decade, as the rate was as high as 24.9 percent in 2012 (see Figure 3.14). Furthermore, a lower percentage of Tennesseans have health care coverage than the national average. Figure 3.15 presents a time series of the percentage of people in the state and the nation with health care coverage from 2011 to 2019. These data show a large increase in coverage starting in 2014 at both the state and national levels, following the first Affordable Care Act open enrollment period. However, in every year Tennessee had a lower percentage of its population with health insurance. In 2019, 85.6 percent of Tennesseans had some form of health insurance, while 89.0 percent had coverage for the nation as a whole.
Tennessee also had the 9th worst infant
mortality rate in the country at 7.4 deaths per 1,000 births (compared to 5.8 per 1,000 for the nation) in 2017, and the 13th highest drug overdose rate at 26.6 deaths per 100,000 population (versus 21.7 for the nation). Finally, Figure 3.16 presents prevalence data for Tennessee and the nation on a number of serious health issues. The prevalence of all eight serious health conditions is higher in Tennessee than the nation. For example, 13.8 percent of Tennesseans were told by a doctor that they have diabetes versus 10.7 percent nationwide, and 25 percent of Tennesseans suffer from depression, versus 19.9 percent for the nation as a whole.
Despite these poor health metrics, Tennessee has still been a strong economic force over the last decade. However, these metrics reveal areas where the state can improve. And gains in both healthcare and health outcomes could lead to a stronger, healthier, and more productive workforce in Tennessee.
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Figure 3.13: Obesity Rates Have Risen Faster in Tennessee
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2019.
Figure 3.14: Smoking Rates in Tennessee Are Well Above the National Average, But Have Fallen in Recent Years
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2019.
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3.4. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE, CONTINUED
Figure 3.15: Fewer Tennesseans Have Health Care Coverage
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2019.
Figure 3.16: More Tennesseans Are Living with Serious Health Conditions
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2019.
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3.5. INCOME, EARNINGS AND OUTPUT
In both Tennessee and the nation, nominal personal income grew by 4.4 percent per year (CAGR) between 2010 and 2019, with accelerated growth in the early part of the decade –as the economy recovered from the Great Recession –coupled with decent gains in the second half of the decade.
In 2020, faced with the COVID-19 pandemic, personal income is still projected to advance by a robust 4.2 percent in Tennessee and an even stronger 5.8 percent for the nation. These solid gains are due entirely to strong growth in federal transfer payments through enhanced unemployment insurance payments and stimulus checks which have helped keep parts of the economy afloat during the pandemic. During the second quarter of 2020, federal transfer payments grew by an astounding annualized rate of 853.9 percent in the U.S. and by 463.0 percent for the state (as compared to the previous quarter). All other major components of personal income will shrink for the year.
Between 2020 and 2030, Tennessee’s nominal personal income is projected to grow by 4.3 percent per year (CAGR), slightly ahead of the 4.2 percent rate of growth projected for the nation as a whole. During this period, wage and salary income, the largest component of personal income, will grow by a solid 4.5 percent per year, due to accelerated job growth in the first half of the decade, as the labor market recovers from the pandemic recession. Transfer payments will also see decent growth over the next decade, advancing by 3.0 percent per year, as Baby Boomers continue to retire and collect social security payments.
In 2019, per capita income in Tennessee was $48,688, and was only 86.3 percent of the national average. From 2020 to 2030, per capita income is projected to advance by 3.5 percent per year (CAGR), matching the compound annual growth rate for the nation as a whole. As a result, state per capita income will lag behind the national average throughout the long term forecast horizon. Because the state starts with a lower level of per capita income, it must actually realize stronger growth rates to ultimately catch up with the nation.
Per capita income growth varies widely across the state. Figure 3.17 reports personal income growth (compound annual growth rates) for
all Tennessee counties between 2010 and 2018. During this period there were only 12 counties to enjoy stronger per capita income gains than the national average of 3.8 percent. Pickett County, saw the strongest growth, as per capita income went from $27,286 in 2010 to $39,686 in 2018, representing 4.79 percent growth per year. More impressively however was Williamson County, which registered a slightly lower 4.77 percent compound annual growth rate, but reflected much larger average income gains. In Williamson County, average income went from $65,353 in 2010 to an outsized $94,872 in 2018. As a result, Williamson County registered the 22nd highest average income across all counties in the nation. Davidson County had the second highest per capita income level in the state, at $66,060, which ranks them at 136th in the nation (out of 3,113 U.S. counties). By comparison, there were 43 Tennessee counties with per capita income growth below 3 percent for the 9-year period. Of note, Shelby County registered a 2.9 percent compound annual growth rate, while the other 42 counties were largely smaller and rural. Five counties recorded growth at 2 percent or less per year –Lake, Crocket, Stewart, Montgomery, and Trousdale. Trousdale saw the weakest income growth during this period, with growth of 0.3 percent per year from 2010 to 2018. While Lake County had the lowest per capita income level among all Tennessee counties. In 2018, average income in Lake County was $23,230 per person, which was also the 11th lowest per capita income level among all U.S. counties.
Starting in 2010, the state has seen ten consecutive years of positive economic growth, as measured by real GDP. On a compound annual basis, Tennessee’s GDP grew by 2.4 percent per year between 2010 and 2019, and slightly outpaced the 2.3 percent rate of growth for the nation as a whole. Looking ahead ten years, real GDP in Tennessee is projected to advance at a similar rate of 2.4 percent per year between 2020 and 2030. This is slightly slower than the national growth projection of 2.6 percent per year, but in line with the state’s historical trend. Over the next decade, manufacturing output in Tennessee will expand by 2.4 percent per year (CAGR). This is much faster
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3.5. INCOME, EARNINGS AND OUTPUT, CONTINUED
Figu
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.17:
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3.5. INCOME, EARNINGS AND OUTPUT, CONTINUED
than the projected 0.5 percent rate of employment growth for the state’s manufacturing sector (see Table 3.1) as productivity gains will lead to more output with fewer workers.
For both Tennessee and the nation, economic growth during the early part of the decade will largely be shaped by the pandemic, which will lead to a sharp contraction in real GDP growth in 2020 followed by stronger rates of growth in 2021 and 2022 as the economy recovers. However, real GDP in Tennessee will not reach its pre-pandemic
2019 level until the end of 2022. Furthermore, the pandemic will lead to a more long run and persistent drop in “potential GDP.” Figure 3.18 compares the state’s GDP trajectory from a pre-pandemic forecast (the 2020 Economic Report to the Governor) with this year’s forecast, and shows that the new predicted path of real GDP will be below the pre-pandemic level through the entire long-term forecast horizon, as some economic activity is permanently lost to the pandemic shock.
Finally, Table 3.3 presents data on the number
Total Manufacturing
NumberGrowth (%)
NumberGrowth (%)
Area 2010 2018 2010 2018
United States (total) 7,396,628 7,912,405 7.0 299,982 290,092 -3.3
Grand Division
East Tennessee 47,291 48,604 2.8 2,330 2,213 -5.0
Middle Tennessee 52,421 58,201 11.0 2,330 2,371 1.8
West Tennessee 31,690 30,745 -3.0 1,301 1,159 -10.9
Tennessee (state total)* 131,582 138,269 5.1 5,961 5,745 -3.6
Table 3.3: Total and Manufacturing Business Establishments, 2010 and 2018
*State total may include establishments where the county is unknown.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns.
Figure 3.18: A Persistent Loss in Potential GDP for the State
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.
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3.5. INCOME, EARNINGS AND OUTPUT, CONTINUED
of business establishments operating in Tennessee as well as each Tennessee region in both 2010 and 2018. In Tennessee, the number of business establishments grew by 5.0 percent over the last nine years, representing a net increase of 6,352 new establishments. This was slower than the 7.0 percent rate of growth for the nation as a whole. The positive rate of growth in Tennessee was driven almost entirely by gains in the Middle Tennessee region, where the number of business establishments expanded by a robust 11.0 percent since 2010. By comparison, the number of establishments grew by only 2.8 percent in East
Tennessee and fell by 3.0 percent in West Tennessee. While business establishments, as a whole,
grew over the last nine years, the number of manufacturing establishments in the state fell during the same time period. From 2010 to 2018, the state saw a net loss of 217 manufacturing firms, representing a 3.6 percent reduction. Middle Tennessee was the only region to see any growth in the number of manufacturing firms, adding 41 firms over the last nine years (a 1.8 percent increase), while West Tennessee saw a significant 10.9 percent drop, and in East Tennessee the number of manufacturing establishments shrunk by 5.0 percent.
3.6. FORECAST AT A GLANCE
• Between 2020 and 2030, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product will advance by a compound annual growth rate of 2.4 percent per year, slightly behind the projected pace of national output growth.
• Nonfarm employment is projected to advance at an annual rate of 1.3 percent per year over the next decade, adding 429.7 thousand workers to the state economy. A large portion of these gains will be realized in the first half of the decade as the economy recovers from the pandemic recession.
• The state’s annualized unemployment rate will shoot up to 7.5 percent in 2020 but will quickly trend downwards thereafter, falling to 5.2 percent in 2021 and as low as 3.9 percent by the end of the decade.
• Nominal personal income will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.3 percent over the next 10 years, and per capita income in Tennessee will reach $71,221 by 2030.
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CHAPTER 4: COVID-19 AND THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY
4.1. INTRODUCTION
In this Chapter —
4.1. Introduction
4.2. COVID-19andtheLaborMarket
4.3. TheCOVID-19PandemicandPublic Assistance Program Participation
4.4. Taxes During the Pandemic Sales Taxes Corporate Taxes Motor Vehicle Taxes Realty Transfer and Mortgage Taxes
4.5. COVID-19andEducation
4.6. COVID-19andEarly-StageBusiness Formation
4.7. FederalStimulusduringthePandemic
4.8. Conclusion
4.9. References
As noted in previous chapters, this Report focuses on some of the economic impacts of COVID-19. The pandemic, however, is a health crisis, and the loss of life, possible long-term health effects related to COVID-19, as well as the physical and mental toll placed on frontline work-ers cannot be overstated. On March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic. Two days later the U.S. declared a national emergency, as the number of confirmed U.S. cases had grown into the thousands in a matter of weeks. By this time, there had already been over 80,000 confirmed cases in China and over 10,000 cases in Italy. Since then, the virus has taken hold of the nation and the world. As of December 7, 2020, there have been nearly 15.0 million confirmed cases in the U.S. and over 280 thousand deaths. Like the nation, Tennessee has grappled with the virus and accompanying fallout, with over 400 thousand confirmed cases and nearly 5,000 COVID-related deaths in the state as of December 7, 2020.
In the spring, many states, including Tennessee,
issued stay-at-home orders and social distancing mandates, stopping all non-essential activities in an effort to limit the spread of COVID-19. As a result, businesses were closed, large public events were can-celed, and school years were cut short or went virtu-al. These closings, coupled with fear of contracting the virus, led to a rapid decline in economic activity. The sudden and severe drop off in economic activity would likely have been even worse had it not been for federal stimulus provided through the Coronavi-rus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) and aggressive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (the Fed). From an economic perspective, it seems that the economic low point occurred in April, and the state and nation have seen positive economic growth in each month since. However, daily COVID cases and deaths have surged in recent months, and the remaining provisions of the CARES Act are set to expire, leaving the economic recovery in a pre-carious position. While the winter looks bleak, the recent FDA approval of one COVID-19 vaccine and successful results on late-stage trials for additional vaccines provides a glimmer of hope. However, with
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4.1. INTRODUCTION, CONTINUED
a limited initial supply and distributional hurdles abound, any semblance of normalcy is likely still many months away.
This chapter provides a retrospective as to how the pandemic has affected the Tennessee economy thus far. The year 2020 has been heavily defined by the pandemic and pandemic-related disruptions. As a result, the COVID economy has already been discussed at great length in Chapter 1, from a national perspective, and Chapter 2, from the state’s perspective. In this chapter, we provide additional context into some of those topics, in-cluding a large focus on how the labor market has fared so far as well as state tax revenue collections. We also provide brief discussions on social assis-tance programs in Tennessee, early-stage business formation patterns, and implications for education and learning during the pandemic.
In building on the labor market effects from Section 2.2 of Chapter 2, this chapter provides an in-depth review of weekly trends in unemployment insurance (UI) claims during the pandemic. We also take a deeper dive into the national data which uncover issues of long-run unemployment (un-employed for 27 weeks or more) as well as show how some subpopulations faced a far harsher labor market shock than others (in particular, females, Black and Hispanic workers, and younger workers). Some explanations for these differing effects are provided in Section 4.2.
Throughout 2020, UI benefits have been one of the largest and most publicized public assistance program, providing much needed relief for those who lost their jobs. However, Tennessee expanded or modified a number of other public assistance programs, such as Families First and the Supple-mentary Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly known as Food Stamps). A brief expla-nation of these relief efforts and their respective participation rates is provided in Section 4.3.
In addition to these public assistance pro-grams, the state government also made a number of policy decisions in an effort to provide flexi-bility to businesses during the pandemic. From a tax perspective, the state pushed back the filing deadlines or due dates on a variety of tax payments
including (but not limited to) corporate income taxes, the professional privilege tax, and motor vehicle registration renewal fees. For the month of April, the state also waived liquor-by-the-drink taxes on drinks sold by restaurants for off-premises consumption. In addition, the state provided some flexibility for businesses deciding whether to renew their business license. Businesses are required to submit an annual report every year to renew their license. Most annual reports are due on April 1, and failure to file usually leads to an administra-tive dissolution in August. However, this year, any procedural dissolutions were delayed until October. Most of these policy changes will have little effect on tax revenues or business filings for the 2020 year as a whole, but did give businesses the oppor-tunity to shift some of their spending and decision making within the year as needed.
In Section 4.4 we provide an in-depth review of state tax collections during the pandemic. Un-like in previous recessions, state sales tax revenues remained relatively strong during the pandemic, as consumers dramatically shifted their spending pat-terns in completely different ways than in previous economic downturns. Most notably, consumers have spent far less on in-person services, many of which are not sales-taxable in the state, and have diverted much of their spending to the purchase of goods, which are taxable. Altered consumer spending patterns have been a big feature of the COVID economy, and as a result, they are also discussed in Chapter 1 (Section 1.1) and Chapter 2 (Section 2.2). Those previous discussions were mostly focused on the consumer’s perspective, whereas in Section 4.4 we discuss their implications for state tax revenues.
In Section 4.5 we discuss how COVID-19 has af-fected public education, specifically, through the shift to online instruction, and in Section 4.6, we provide a brief discussion on early-stage business formations during the pandemic. Finally, in Section 4.7 we turn to the national economy and provide details on some of the aggressive stimulus actions taken by the federal government, including through the CARES Act and monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (the Fed).
Prior to the pandemic, the state economy
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4.2. COVID-19 AND THE LABOR MARKET
was supported by an extremely tight labor mar-ket. As of January 2020, there were roughly 350 thousand more nonfarm workers in Tennessee than there were during the pre-Great Recession peak, and the state unemployment rate had fallen as low as 3.3 percent in late-2019 and early-2020. Things of course took a turn for the worse in the spring of 2020 due to the rapid spread of COVID-19, which led to the temporary closings of many businesses and schools and radically altered consumer-spending patterns. As a result, many businesses laid off or furloughed workers and the state unemployment rate shot up to 15.5 percent in April, representing a 12.2 percentage point increase in a one-month span. In that one month period, 392.8 thousand Tennesseans lost their jobs, and more than 20 million jobs were lost nationwide. Job losses were felt in every broad sector of the state economy, but the leisure and hospitality sector was hit the hardest early on. Figure 4.1 shows that among the nearly 400 thousand jobs lost between March and April, nearly half came from the leisure and hospitality sector, where over 155 thousand jobs vanished in just one month, as restaurants closed, travel froze, and concerts and sporting event were cancelled.
While the leisure and hospitality sector was hit the hardest, all sectors of the state economy faced job losses in April. In addition to the leisure and hospitality sector, two other sectors saw negative job growth in excess of 10 percent: manufactur-ing (down 17.7 percent, a loss of 62.3 thousand jobs), and professional and business services (down 10.5 percent, losing 45.2 thousand work-ers). Employment in the trade, transportation and utilities sector also saw steep losses (down 6.6 percent and lost 43.3 thousand jobs), as well as in education and health services (down 8.5 percent, a loss of 37.8 thousand jobs). Employment in the state’s government sector also fell by 14.4 thou-sand, while job losses in the information, financial activities, and mining, logging, and construction sectors were much less severe.
Since April, the state economy has seen positive month-over-month job growth but there were still 131 thousand fewer jobs in October than there were in February (Figure 4.2). Furthermore, Figure 4.3 shows that job gains have slowed con-siderably since the early parts of the summer. In May and June, Tennessee added a combined 208.1 thousand workers back to its employment rolls, but in the four following months (July through Octo-
Figure 4.1: The Bulk of Initial Job Losses Came From the Leisure and Hospitality SectorTennessee Nonfarm Employment Growth, March 2020 to April 2020
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 4.2: Despite Positive Job Growth in Recent Months, Nonfarm Job Levels are Still Well Below their Pre-Pandemic Peak
Total Nonfarm Jobs in Tennessee, October 2019 to October 2020
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 4.3: Monthly Job Gains Have Slowed Since June
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 4.4: Employment in Most Tennessee Sectors has yet to Claw Back to Pre-Pandemic Levels
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
ber) only 64 thousand more jobs were added. July was particularly abysmal, with a pickup of only 400 workers. These figures suggest that the economic recovery might be losing steam.
Figure 4.4 shows the net change in jobs by sector during the height of the pandemic recession (February to April) as well as the ensuing months (April to October). Since April, the leisure and hos-pitality sector has added 113.4 thousand workers back to its rolls, but job levels are only around 88 percent of their pre-pandemic February level. The manufacturing sector, which lost 65.8 thousand workers in the spring and was the second hardest hit sector in the state, has only regained 40.8 thou-sand workers since then. The trade, transportation, and utilities sector was also hit hard by the pan-demic, as many consumers stayed home. Similarly, the two other major service sectors (professional and business services and education and health ser-vices) faced significant job losses. Most sectors of the state’s economy have seen job gains since the
spring, but as of October, financial activities is the only sector to have fully recovered to pre-pandemic employment levels.
Since the April high of 15.5 percent, Ten-nessee’s unemployment rate has largely trended downwards, falling to 6.5 percent in September, before inching up to 7.4 percent in October (see Figure 4.5). This October increase was largely due to an increase in the labor force (measured as the number of people employed plus the number of people unemployed but actively looking for work), as there were more people looking for work in October than in September. To be eligible for UI benefits in the state, claimants are required to make weekly work searches. This requirement was temporarily suspended during the pandemic, but was reinstated as of October 4. Thus, the rising number of people in the labor force, and accompa-nying unemployment rate increase, is likely driv-en, to some extent, by the newly reinstated work search requirement.
February to April April to October
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Although the headline unemployment rate has been falling, long-term unemployment has been on the rise across the nation. Figure 4.6 presents national data on the percentage of unemployed people who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more. As of November, 36.9 percent of the 10.7 million unemployed have been jobless for 27 weeks or more. As the pandemic has persisted, this number continues to rise rapidly, and is quickly approaching the previous peak of 45 percent in the wake of the Great Recession. This is a serious issue as those who have been out of work for a half a year or more are more likely to have depleted their savings. Furthermore, unemployment insurance benefits in Tennessee (and most states) are only available for a maximum of 26 weeks. The CARES Act offers an additional 13 weeks of federally funded UI benefits through Pandemic Unemploy-ment Assistance (PUA), but this is set to expire at the end of 2020 (as of this writing). Therefore, the currently 36.9 percent dealing with long term unemployment have likely already exhausted their UI benefits or will do so soon.
National data on job losses paint a similarly bleak picture. Table 4.1 provides a breakdown of unemployment classifications through the first 11 months of 2020. In April, when unemployment peaked at 23.1 million, 78.3 percent of those job losses were classified as temporary layoffs and only 8.7 percent were permanent. However, as the pan-demic recession has persisted, the share of perma-nent job losses has grown while the percentage on temporary layoff has shrunk, as many firms have restructured, downsized, or closed due to weak con-sumer demand. As of November, the percentage of permanent job losses has more than quadrupled, to 34.9 percent, while the percentage on temporary layoff has fallen to 25.7 percent. This suggests that some of those who were initially on temporary lay-off have since returned to work, while others have since learned that what was once a temporary layoff has since become a permanent job loss.
Figure 4.7 presents county level unemploy-ment rates (not seasonally adjusted) across the state for the months of March, April and October 2020. In April, Sevier County, which relies heavily
4.2. COVID-19 AND THE LABOR MARKET, CONTINUED
Figure 4.5: Unemployment Rates Spiked in the Spring, but have Largely Trended Downward Since
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 4.6: Despite a Declining Unemployment Rate, Long Term Unemployment is Rising Rapidly Percentage of Total Unemployed (Nationally) Who Have Been Jobless for 27 Weeks or More
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20
Unemployment Level 5,892 5,787 7,140 23,078 20,985 17,750 16,338 13,550 12,580 11,061 10,735
Total Job Losers 2,665 2,723 3,946 20,626 18,291 14,272 12,924 10,307 9,135 7,712 7,485
On temporary layoff 742 801 1,848 18,063 15,343 10,565 9,225 6,160 4,637 3,205 2,764
Permanent 1,289 1,279 1,456 2,000 2,295 2,883 2,877 3,411 3,756 3,684 3,743
Temporary job completed 634 644 643 563 653 824 823 736 742 823 978
As Percentage of Total Unemployed
On temporary layoff 12.6% 13.8% 25.9% 78.3% 73.1% 59.5% 56.5% 45.5% 36.9% 29.0% 25.7%
Permanent 21.9% 22.1% 20.4% 8.7% 10.9% 16.2% 17.6% 25.2% 29.9% 33.3% 34.9%
Table 4.1: The Percentage of Permanent Job Losses Continues to Rise
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.Note: Levels data are in thousands.
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Figure 4.7: Tennessee County Unemployment Rates, March, April, and October 2020
Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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on tourism, had the highest unemployment rate in the state at an astounding 29.1 percent. This was an incredibly large and fast jump compared to the 3.5 percent unemployment rate from just one month prior. Unemployment in Sevier has eased to a large degree, and had fallen to 5.6 percent in October. Eleven additional counties had unem-ployment rates equal to or above 20 percent in April, all of which had unemployment rates of 5.1 percent or less just one month prior. This is another example of the speed with which the eco-nomic carnage hit the state. In April, unemploy-ment levels were elevated across the state, and no single county was unscathed. Fayette and Weakly had the lowest unemployment rates in April, at 9.5 percent, but even these were large jumps com-pared to the sub-3.5 percent rates from one month prior. Similarly, the larger metro areas, which in years past have had the more vibrant economies, were hit hard. Davidson County registered an unemployment rate of 16.1 percent in April, while Hamilton (14.4 percent), Knox (12.9 percent), and Shelby (13.2 percent) were not far behind. Unemployment rates have fallen remarkably since April, but as of October are still well above their pre-pandemic levels in all counties. Furthermore, unemployment rates in some of the larger metro areas, such as Davidson, Hamilton, and Shelby County remain relatively high, as counties with higher population densities and those reliant on the service sector remain particularly vulnerable to the ongoing pandemic. This issue is most glaring in Shelby County, where the unemployment rate in October was still at an elevated 11.0 percent (compared to 3.7 percent in March).
Thus far, we have focused on how the labor market as a whole has fared during the pandem-ic. However, from an economic perspective, the pandemic recession has hit some sub-populations harder than others. For a deeper dive, we next ex-amine how rates of unemployment varied across various sub-groups. Figures 4.8-4.10 present national unemployment rates by gender, race/eth-nicity, and age groups. While these data are only available at the national level, they provide an im-
1 https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11.htm
portant perspective as to how the pandemic had differential labor market effects across various sub populations. Since 2015, national unemploy-ment rates for men and women did not differ a great deal (Figure 4.8). However, in April, when unemployment rates spiked, the unemployment rate among men hit 13.5 percent, while the female unemployment rate rose to an even higher 16.2 percent. There are a number of possible expla-nations for the larger increase amongst females. First, the responsibility of childcare falls more heavily to mothers in the U.S., on average, and when schools closed in the spring, more women may have felt compelled to leave their jobs to watch their children and help with their online education, or had less flexibility with their work hours. Additionally, a larger share of women work in the service sector, which was hit hardest during the initial pandemic shock, and could have there-fore led to a larger share of female job losses. In 2019, 57.6 percent of all service workers were women; with women accounting for 71.3 percent of all restaurant wait-staff nationwide, hotel, motel, and resort desk clerks were 74.6 percent female, and recreation and fitness workers were 63.3 percent female.1
The unequal share of job losses was not only seen across genders, but also across race/ethnicity and age groups, as Figure 4.9 shows that unemployment rates across the Black and Hispanic populations rose at a significantly high-er rate than among the White or Asian popula-tions. Recent research form the Urban Institute finds that Black and Hispanic workers are more likely to have jobs that must be done in person, which if deemed non-essential were more likely to have been shut down in the spring (Dubay et al., 2020). Furthermore, in-person work (essen-tial and non-essential) leads to greater exposure to the virus and a higher probability of trans-mitting it to household members. This of course has potentially serious consequences for their health but also could have led to a higher pro-portion of Black and Hispanic workers missing work due to illness.
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Figure 4.8: National Unemployment Rate by Gender – 16 Years and Older
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 4.9: National Unemployment Rate by Race/Ethnicity – 16 Years and Older
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 4.10 reports unemployment rates by age group, and shows that the youngest cohort, those aged 16 through 24 years, were hit the hardest, with unemployment rates peaking at 27.4 percent in April. This was nearly twice as large as the spike seen among 25 to 34 year olds, which peaked at 14.5 percent in April.
Education, which we showed in Chapter 3, is positively correlated with earnings and labor force attachment, provided a cushion against the nega-tive employment shocks of the pandemic. Figure 4.11 shows that the national unemployment rate spiked in April for workers across all educational attainment levels, but the increase was both more severe and showed greater persistence for those with less education. Among those (25 years and older) without a high school diploma, the unemployment rate shot up to an astounding 20.9 percent in April. It has since fallen in the ensuing months, but is still at an elevated 8.9 percent as of October. Similarly, for those with a high school diploma but no college experience, the unemployment rate rose to 17.0 percent in April and has since fallen to 7.8 percent in
October. By comparison, for those with a Bachelor’s degree, the unemployment rate never exceeded 10 percent during the pandemic, and was back down to 4.6 percent as of October. Moreover, for those with a graduate degree, unemployment was down to 3.2 percent as of October.
State-level data from Opportunity Insights also show that the spring job losses and ensuing recovery were not equally distributed. Figure 4.12 illustrates that in Tennessee, job losses were much more severe among those in the lower wage bracket, while jobs in the highest wage bracket were hit less hard and are nearly back to their pre-pandemic levels. In April, nearly one-third of all low-wage jobs (lower than $27,000 per year) were lost in Tennessee, compared to 16.1 percent of the middle wage jobs (between 27,000 & $59,000 per year), and only 7.7 percent of the high wage jobs (above $60,000 per year). Further-more, employment levels among middle-wage and high-wage workers are nearly back to their pre-pan-demic levels from January 2020, as office workers were more easily able to transition to working from home. However, among low wage workers, employ-
Figure 4.10: National Unemployment Rate by Age Bracket
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 4.11: Unemployment was More Widespread Among Those with Lower Educational Attainment National Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment – 25 Years and Older
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.Note: Not seasonally adjusted
Figure 4.12: Job Losses in Tennessee were More Severe and More Persistent Among Low Wage Workers
Source: OpportunityInsights, https://tracktherecovery.org/Note: Low wage is less than $27k. Middle wage is between $27K and $60K. High wage is above $60K.
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ment levels are still 17 percent below their January 2020 levels, as sectors with a greater share of lower paying jobs such as leisure and hospitality and retail trade have been slower to recover.
In normal economic times, we generally view the monthly releases of employment/un-employment data, which come with a one month lag, as the most up-to-date view of the labor market. However, during the pandemic, the eco-nomic landscape changed with such violence and swiftness that the employment data were often out of date before they were even released. The best example is the March jobs report (released in April), which estimated that Tennessee’s unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3 percent, and suggests that the adverse economic effects of the pandemic did not start until April. However, we know that COVID-19 started to rapidly spread in March and high-fre-quency data on weekly UI claims show that the accompanying economic carnage commenced in mid-to-late March as well. This is not captured in the monthly employment data for March,
which surveys over 650 thousand business establishments nationwide about how many workers are on their payrolls through the 12th of each month, because the economic effects of the pandemic did not start until after the 12th of March. For this reason, we now turn to the weekly UI claims data. Figure 4.13 presents initial claims for both Tennessee and the nation, and shows that initial claims ballooned during the third week of March. Prior to the pandem-ic, the state was generally processing around two to three thousand new UI claims per week and the nation processed around 200 thousand. However, at the onset of the pandemic, new UI claims rose more than 10-fold, to an astound-ing 38,000 in Tennessee and 2.9 million across the nation (during the week ending on March 21). For perspective, in Tennessee this was 23.8 percent higher than the Great Recession peak (30,753 in January of 2009). This however, was only the beginning. The following week new claims grew to 92,500 in Tennessee, and then topped out at 112 thousand during the first week
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Figure 4.13: Initial Claims Skyrocketed in the Spring but have Trended Downwards Since
Sources: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and TN Department of Labor and Workforce Development. Not seasonally adjusted.
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of April. New UI claims for the nation followed a similar pattern, growing from roughly 250 thousand during the second week of March to more than 2.9 million the following week and up to 6.2 million during the first week of April. The speed at which new claims rose and the levels to which they rose were staggering and unprece-dented. For perspective, between mid-March and mid-November, a span of 36 weeks, more than 915 thousand initial UI claims were filed in Ten-nessee. By comparison, there were roughly 790 thousand new UI claims filed during the entirety of the Great Recession, which lasted 81 weeks.
New claims have come down over the en-suing months, but remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. In the third week of No-vember, there were 7,295 new claims in Tennessee and nearly 828 thousand across the nation. This is well below the spring peak, but initial UI claims are still tracking at recessionary levels, and are more than three times higher than pre-pandemic levels. Thus, while the unprecedented rate of job losses seen in the spring seems to have subsided,
many Tennesseans are still losing their jobs or getting their work hours cut enough to induce them to apply for UI benefits.
At the onset of the pandemic, the bulk of new UI claims came from individuals working in the leisure and hospitality sector (see Figure 4.14), as restaurants closed down, hotels were left nearly empty, and large entertainment events were cancelled. However, as the pandemic and ac-companying recession have entered into its ninth month, the distribution of UI claims has become more evenly distributed (Figure 4.15).
The number of new UI claims provides a good measure of how many people first lost their jobs each week. Conversely, the number of continued UI claims indicates how many people are still unemployed. Figure 4.16 shows that while the number of new UI claims started to come down in April, the number of continued claims did not start to fall until May, after peak-ing at 343,212 during the week ending on May 2. But even then they only fell by a few percentage points per week. Continued UI claims in Tennes-
Figure 4.14: At the Onset of the Pandemic Nearly Half of All Initial UI Claims Came from the Leisure and
Hospitality SectorDistribution of initial UI claims in Tennessee during the week
ending on 3/21/2020
Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
Figure 4.15 Nine Months into the Pandemic Recession, Total Initial UI Claims are More Evenly Distributed
Across SectorsDistribution of total initial UI claims in Tennessee from the
weeks ending on 3/21/2020 through 11/21/2020
Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
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see remained stubbornly high through the sum-mer and early fall months. In October, continued claims started falling more rapidly, including a 27.8 percent drop during the first week of Octo-ber as the job search requirement was reinstated after being suspended during the pandemic. As of November 14, continued claims sit at 56,609. This is a huge drop-off compared to the spring peak, but is still well above pre-pandemic levels –from 2016 to February 2020, the state averaged around 19,000 per week.
Figure 4.17 shows that a relatively large por-tion of these continued claims are coming from the service sector. During the week ending on November 14, professional and business services accounted for the largest proportion of continued claims, at 21 percent. The leisure and hospitality sector accounted for 15.0 percent of all continued UI claims in the state. Trade, manufacturing, and education and health services also had relatively high shares of continued claims.
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Figure 4.16: Continued UI Claims in Tennessee Have Come Down Considerably in Recent Weeks, But Still Remain Well Above Historic Levels
Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
Figure 4.17: Continued UI Claims Still Heavily Lean Towards the Service Sectors
Distribution of continued UI claims during the week ending on 11/14/2020
Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
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4.3. THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND PUBLIC ASSISTANCE PROGRAM PARTICIPATION
One of the key functions of government is to help smooth out the effects of macroeconomic swings. This typically happens through a combi-nation of monetary policy, especially with interest rate changes enacted by the Fed, and fiscal policy, usually involving a combination of tax and spending policies at the federal and state levels. The gov-ernmental response to the COVID-19 pandemic consisted of a series of fiscal policies ranging from stimulus checks sent to income-eligible households to important modifications to several prominent public assistance programs.
In this section, we survey the effects of the pandemic on public assistance programs. We dis-cuss how eligibility and benefit rules were changed to provide additional support, and then explore the extent to which eligible households responded to those changes by taking up the benefits. To be sure, the well-publicized extensions of unemploy-ment benefits and other programs helped mitigate the pandemic’s recessionary impacts. But the participation response was far from uniform across the various programs.
The most significant public program response to the pandemic was the dramatic expansion of UI benefits (details of which are discussed in Section 4.7). The purpose of this policy action was to alle-viate the strain on households suffering from what was hoped to be a short-term (but dramatic) inter-ruption in economic activity. The UI expansion was an important supplement to the various loan programs that were provided to employers in order to help them maintain payroll and avoid closure or bankruptcy throughout the pandemic.
Recognizing that the above actions were nec-essarily targeted to those who had jobs or who had lost jobs that were protected by the UI system, the federal and state governments also pursued a vari-ety of temporary expansions of other key public assistance programs. This was intended to target additional economic stimulus to the lowest-income families in society.
Tennessee’s response included short-term sup-plements to the Families First and SNAP programs. Families First is Tennessee’s traditional cash assis-tance welfare program, operating within the federal
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. It provides cash and non-cash benefits (e.g., child care support, education and training sup-ports, and other services needed to support the pur-suit of gainful employment) and requires a certain level of work activity. Participants may only receive Families First benefits for up to 60 total months in their lifetime, except in the case of various hardships that qualify one for an exemption. SNAP is the program formerly known as Food Stamps, provid-ing important nutritional supports in the form of an Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) card that can only be used for food purchases.
Tennessee’s supplement to the Families First program, known as the Emergency Cash Assis-tance program, provided two months of cash payments to lower-income families that had been employed as of March 11, 2020, but had lost their job or at least half of their income due to the pandemic. Qualifying households had to have at least one child under the age of 18 (or a pregnant woman) and also had to meet income and finan-cial resource requirements. Benefits amounted to $500/$750/$1000 for households with 1-2/3-4/5+ individuals.
This cash benefit was further supplement-ed by special EBT benefits provided to families with school-aged children who qualified for free or reduced school lunches. The purpose of this additional benefit was to replace the nutritional assistance that was lost when schools closed in the spring. Another temporary program was enacted to provide child care assistance to essential workers who were no longer able to keep their children in school while they went to work.
Turning to SNAP, Tennessee enacted several federal provisions intended to provide additional (and more easily accessible) food support to eligi-ble families impacted by the pandemic. First and most importantly, all SNAP recipients were auto-matically eligible for the maximum program benefit for April and May. Second, a variety of other changes were made to rules and processes govern-ing the determination of eligibility, making it easier for families to apply for and receive benefits.
While these short-term program responses
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might appear to be aggressive and expensive, it is important to note that most of them were intend-ed to be funded out of a significant accumulation of unspent federal TANF funds. Thus, it was possible to funnel significant funds to eligible families without the state having to enact new taxes or incur new debt. Of course, the extent to which they have been expensive depends entirely on the extent to which eligible households took up the new benefits.
Several elements impact an eligible family’s de-cision to take up public assistance. Even if income falls below the eligibility threshold, some families might choose to tap their own savings or other local resources to make ends meet. Some might have a general aversion to receiving public assistance, or might be worried about social stigma. Others might be confused about program rules, or simply unaware of the available benefits. Additionally, and perhaps most importantly, some might have been able to access the expanded UI benefits earlier in the pandemic. This could have made the other benefits
2 Monthly state-by-state TANF data can be accessed at https://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/ofa/fy2020_tanf_caseload_trec.pdf.
like TANF and SNAP impossible (if the UI bene-fits made a household income-ineligible) or at least relatively less valuable, especially given the various requirements associated with receiving them.
While the array of program modifications might lead one to expect a dramatic increase in pub-lic assistance program participation, the most recent data provide an entirely different story. To be sure, receipt of UI benefits spiked immediately and has remained relatively high throughout the pandemic period (see Figure 4.13 and Figure 4.16 in Section 4.2). Conversely, participation in other major public assistance programs has remained relatively stable.
Figure 4.18 shows caseloads for TennCare, Families First, and SNAP between January 2019 and September 2020. Families First participation has merely continued its ongoing downward trend throughout the pandemic period, despite efforts to provide additional assistance. A comparison with national data reveals a diversity of experiences, with TANF cases rising dramatically in some states and falling dramatically in others.2
Figure 4.18: While UI Claims Skyrocketed, Participation of Other Public Assistance Programs Saw Only Modest Growth or went Unchanged During the Pandemic
Sources: Tennessee Department of Human Services and Tennessee Division of TennCare.
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SNAP participation spiked upward as the pandemic hit Tennessee in March and April, but has trended generally downward since that time. National data suggest that Tennessee’s SNAP experience was toward the lower end of the dis-tribution, as most other states saw larger caseload growth in early 2020.3
Finally, while TennCare rules were left broadly unchanged, participation began to rise steadily from May 2020 onward. The national experience with Medicaid appears to have been similar, but cases have grown by larger percentages in most other states.4
In sum, Tennessee made significant efforts to provide additional public assistance to those families that have been most heavily-impacted by
3 Detailed state-by-state SNAP data can be accessed at https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/resource-files/30SNAPcurrHH-7a.pdf.4 Detailed state-by-state Medicaid data can be accessed at https://www.medicaid.gov/sites/default/files/2020-10/july-medicaid-chip-enrollment-trend-snapshot.pdf.
the COVID-19 pandemic. Benefits were enhanced and program eligibility rules were relaxed for most major programs as the state experienced the most significant economic interruption in modern times. Despite those efforts, it appears that most programs saw only modest growth in participation when compared to the massive increase in the receipt of UI benefits. As the pandemic continues to impact the state and as UI benefits run out for many participants, it will be important to keep a watchful eye on these other critical programs. The experience in 2021 could be substantially different. Fortunately, the state remains well-prepared finan-cially to provide these additional benefits given the general lack of participation in 2020.
During a recession, tax revenues normally de-cline in Tennessee, however, collections performed much better during the COVID-19 recession and initial rebound than in previous economic down-turns (see Figure 4.19). Revenues rose 2.3 percent in fiscal 2020 and are up 2.2 percent for the fiscal year-to-date through October 2020. By comparison, tax revenues fell 8.7 percent in fiscal 2009 and 1.3 percent in fiscal 2010, during the Great Recession. Admittedly, tax growth slowed dramatically from March through June of 2020, but growth rates be-gan improving by May, despite the expectations that taxes would be impacted for longer. Considerable uncertainty remains on tax revenue outcomes during the remainder of the year, just as there is uncertainty about overall economic performance.
Revenue performance has differed radically across tax categories during the pandemic, with some showing unusual strength and others weak-ness. Some are following patterns similar to other recessions, such as the motor vehicle taxes. Others, such as the sales, corporate, and realty transfer and mortgage taxes, have exhibited much stronger collections than the norms during recessions. The
responses were unexpected in the recession’s early days but it is now clear why many taxes responded as they did during the COVID economy.
Sales Taxes
The sales tax generated 61.6 percent of De-partment of Revenue collections in 2020. Sales taxes expanded very rapidly during the first part of fiscal 2020 but declined rapidly from April through June (based on sales in March through May) 2020. Sales began growing again by June as Federal assis-tance through the CARES Act provided substantial capacity for consumers to spend, even as employ-ment and GDP fell dramatically. Payments of $1200 to many households and enhanced unem-ployment benefits allowed transfer payments to rise nearly 60 percent in Tennessee during the second quarter (as compared to the same quarter last year), and gave consumers the potential to spend well beyond their earnings. The size and speed of the federal stimulus response was a key reason for maintaining positive tax revenue growth even as employment plummeted.
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Sales taxes have risen 3.7 percent during the current fiscal year, widely different from the underlying economic performance in Tennessee. Sales taxes fell rapidly during the Great Recession in both fiscal 2009 and fiscal 2010, by comparison. The extent of substitution between categories of sales has been one of the most surprising out-comes during the past year. Tax revenue has gener-ally benefited as some substitutions have been away from non-sales taxable purchases, such as airline travel and elective surgery, and towards sales tax-able purchases. Still, some sectors have seen very rapid sales tax growth and others very large de-clines during recent months. Figure 4.20 illustrates that building material stores and online businesses (not pictured) have seen very large year-over-year increases in recent months. Broadly, durable goods sales have been very strong (see Figure 4.21), though their sales normally fall during recessions. Households have apparently used additional time at home for renovations and replacing appliances. They have also purchased equipment for exercise at home and for outdoor sports. Sales for kayaks, boats, and exercise bikes are reported to have risen rapidly. Even auto sales, which remain below their pre-pandemic level, have rebounded to solid levels.
Food stores have seen solid growth as people have shifted towards eating more at home. Thir-ty-one states do not tax food for consumption at home, which means they lost significant revenue as people shifted away from restaurants. Revenues have been better sustained in Tennessee since the state taxes food for consumption at home, albeit at a preferential 4.5 percent rate (some other states also have a preferred rate for food for consump-tion at home). On the other hand, hotels, eating and drinking places, and apparel and accessory stores have seen large revenue declines. The alco-holic beverage tax, which is generally imposed on alcohol consumed at home, has also seen very large increases while the mixed drink tax, levied on alco-hol in bars and restaurants, has fallen significantly.
Two recent Tennessee legislative changes have facilitated better sales tax growth than otherwise would have occurred. These legislative actions allow Tennessee to obtain sales taxes that were due but were previously difficult to collect, and their implementation during the past year is reflected in better sales tax growth during the weak economic environment. Tennessee, like all sales taxing states except Florida and Missouri, enacted economic nexus legislation in the wake
Figure 4.19: Real and Nominal Tax Revenue Growth is Volatile, 1999 - 2020
Tennessee Department of Revenue, IHS, and Author’s Calculations.
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Figure 4.20: Sales Tax Collections Fell in Many Categories but Rose in Many OthersSeptember Fiscal YTD (Year over Year Change)
Source: Tennessee Department of Revenue.
Figure 4.21: Consumers have Shifted their Spending to Goods and away from Services (Q3, Percentage Change year-over-year)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S., Department of Commerce.
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4.4. TAXES DURING THE PANDEMIC, CONTINUED
of the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Wayfair v. South Dakota. The legislation became effective October 2019 and permits Tennessee to require larger remote vendors (those with sales above $500,000 into Tennessee) to begin collecting and remitting sales tax. The legislation has been particularly important for tax revenues as trends towards online purchasing accelerated during the pandemic (Figure 4.22).
Tennessee also enacted legislation requiring marketplace facilitators, such as Amazon and eBay, to collect taxes on all sales into Tennessee. The marketplace facilitator legislation was effective in October 2020, and November’s tax collections (based on October sales) evidence that substantial collection of taxes will result from marketplace facilitator legislation going forward.
The combination of the pandemic and the economic nexus and marketplace facilitator legisla-tion has important implications for local sales taxes as well. Almost all counties have seen very good sales tax revenue growth despite the pandemic (see Figure 4.23) because the new legislation permits improved collection of local as well as state taxes on remote sales. But, the distribution of revenues
has also been altered by the new legislation, which now requires remote vendors to provide revenues to the jurisdiction where the purchases are re-ceived. Formerly, much of the online local revenue was distributed using a formula that depended heavily on population, and allowed more of the revenues to go to some larger counties.
COVID-19 accelerated the trend towards online shopping, and underlying changes in local revenues were felt more rapidly than otherwise would have occurred. Local taxes on purchases in stores remain with the jurisdiction where the sale occurs, even if the purchase is made by a cross county shopper. Counties housing retail centers (such as the largest counties) experience much of the revenue loss from declines as people shift to purchasing online. The retail center counties con-tinue to receive the revenues if their residents shift their purchases online, but revenues from the cross border shoppers will now go to their home county when they shop online. As a result, Davidson, Hamilton, and Knox County have seen relatively weaker growth in local sales taxes as McMinn, Stewart and Crockett Counties (as examples) have seen very high growth rates.
Figure 4.22: Tennessee Tax on New Remote Sellers has Risen Dramatically Since Economic Nexus went into Effect
Source: Tennessee Department of Revenue
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4.4. TAXES DURING THE PANDEMIC, CONTINUED
Figu
re 4
.23:
Loc
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CHAPTER 4 | COVID-19 and the Tennessee Economy
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4.4. TAXES DURING THE PANDEMIC, CONTINUED
Corporate Taxes
The corporate excise and franchise taxes have also done relatively well since the pandem-ic began, as they rose 3.7 percent in fiscal 2020 and are up 3.5 percent so far this fiscal year. These taxes plummeted during the Great Reces-sion years of fiscal 2008 and 2009. The timing of corporate tax payments depends on specific institutional rules developed by Tennessee and tax planning and accounting decisions made by companies, and the overall tax liabilities depends on corporate profitability. As a result, corporate tax collections during the past year likely depend mostly on 2019 corporate profits and decisions that companies had made before the pandemic. We will not discuss this in detail, but much of the corporate tax revenue is due later this fiscal year through quarterly payments, and as tax returns are filed in April (and filing extensions extend to October 2021). We expect corporate tax revenue to fall as the fiscal year proceeds, and to be a drag on overall tax collections. Lower corporate profits during the pandemic will likely reduce tax payments during the remainder of this year and going forward into next fiscal year.
Motor Vehicle Taxes
Many vehicle, and particularly fuel-related taxes, have generally declined in recent months as people work more from home, attend school less in person, and travel less for vacations. The fuel taxes (gasoline, diesel and gasoline inspection fees) all fell during fiscal 2020 except the diesel fuel tax rose because of a rate increase. The motor vehicle registration and motor vehicle title fees, which depend on factors such as the number of vehicles sold, also fell last fiscal year. The fuel taxes are down significantly again this fiscal year to date, though the other motor vehicle taxes have risen so far. All vehicle related taxes declined during the Great Recession in fiscal 2009. Generally, the motor vehicle-related taxes will likely perform poorly until people return to levels of travel similar to those existing prior to the pandemic.
Realty Transfer and Mortgage Taxes
The realty transfer and mortgage taxes have been particularly robust this calendar year (see Figure 4.24). Realty transfer taxes fell initially during the recession but quickly rebounded. Very low interest rates, the desire to find more space as social distancing occurs, and solid household
Figure 4.24: Housing’s Strength Apparent in Realty Transfer and Mortgage Taxes (3-month moving average)
Source: Tennessee Department of Revenue.
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2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 101
4.4. TAXES DURING THE PANDEMIC, CONTINUED
balance sheets given performance of the financial markets have caused overall housing starts and sales to reach the highest levels since before the Great Recession. Rising housing sales have also helped sales tax collections since many building materials and appliances in new houses are subject to sales tax. Again, recessions (and particularly the Great
Recession) are usually characterized by weak hous-ing construction and sales. It should be noted that national data suggest that investment in business structures has been very weak, more like recession norms. Very low interest rates have stimulated refi-nancing, which has caused realty mortgage taxes to remain very healthy through the pandemic.
4.5. COVID-19 AND EDUCATION
The pandemic’s effects on state tax revenues was not as dire as feared initially, although the economic situation remains volatile and uncertain. Effects on education, however, were immediate-ly detrimental and could be long-lasting. In this section, we outline two causes for concern and de-scribe how they could contribute to a lost year for learning while labor-saving technology races ahead.
Online classes are a less effective way to learn.Likely the most common form of day-to-
day gathering is found in classrooms and child care centers. Moving a large share of learning from classrooms to virtual meetings and online platforms was perhaps the most widespread and widely felt precaution against the spread of the coronavirus. This move, though necessary in some measure, will likely hinder student learning in 2020-2021. Studies from a variety of settings—K-12, as well as multiple sectors of higher education—have consistently shown that students learn less in an online format than they do in person (Figlio et al., 2013; Xu and Jaggers, 2013; Alpert et al., 2016; Bettinger et al. 2017; Bueno, 2020; Fitzpatrick et al., 2020), although this vein of research has not yet examined the COVID-19 era of online learning or identified the effect of online education on the youngest learners.
Unfortunately, we will not have a good quan-titative understanding of the consequences of online and hybrid education for student learning in 2021. Required TNReady testing was canceled in spring 2020, and assessments may return in 2021 with weakened accountability provisions. Post-
secondary institutions accelerated a trend toward ACT/SAT “test optional” admissions, and for enrolled students, colleges and universities softened grading policies to counter the effects of disrupted coursework. These necessary changes in test ad-ministration procedures, grading, and accountabil-ity will make it difficult to understand if students lost ground academically between 2019 and 2021. It would be an even more difficult task to isolate the effects of online learning or any other 2020 policy from the dramatic health, economic, and social effects of COVID-19.
Fewer students are enrolling, and preparing to enroll, in college.
As of November 2020, the National Student Clearinghouse estimated that Tennessee’s under-graduate college enrollment was down 5 percent from the same point in time in 2019. Enrollment was 15 percent lower in the state’s community col-leges, whereas fall 2020 enrollment in public four-year universities was on par with 2019. According to a September 2020 analysis by the Tennessee Board of Regents, community college enrollment fell most among first-time, full-time freshmen (19 percent) and Black or African-American students (19 percent). Enrollment also fell sharply among older students (13 percent) and dual-enrolled high school students (9 percent).
Declining enrollment is concerning for a couple of reasons. First, this pattern is at odds with what happened in the prior two recessions, in 2001 and 2007-2009. During those downturns, community and technical college enrollment rose,
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4.5. COVID-19 AND EDUCATION, CONTINUED
as shown in Figure 4.25 and described in more detail in “Driving Forward,” a joint report by the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Re-search and SCORE.5 College can insulate students against the effects of graduating during a recession (Carruthers, Kessler, & Wanamaker, 2020), and for displaced workers, postsecondary programs offer an opportunity to learn new skills and shift to new industries (Carruthers and Sanford, 2018). And second, a college education—whether it comes from a technical or community college, or a four-year university—is usually a worthwhile investment. Students who leave or defer college in 2020-2021 may earn less and have fewer opportu-nities for advancement in the future, and the state as a whole will have fewer people to fill jobs that need workers with postsecondary education.
Not only are fewer students enrolling in college in fall 2020, but it appears that fewer high school students are taking steps to enroll in fall 2021 by filing a Free Application for Federal
5 https://drivingforward.tnscore.org/6 We merged school-level FAFSA filing counts, as recorded through November 20, 2020, with U.S. Department of Education school profiles as compiled by the Urban Institute Education Data Explorer: https://educationdata.urban.org/data-explorer/schools/.
Student Aid (FAFSA). FAFSAs are necessary for need-based financial aid such as federal Pell or state TSAA grants, but also for subsidized loans, Ten-nessee Promise, merit-based HOPE scholarships, and institutional aid packages.
In recent years Tennessee has been a na-tionwide leader in FAFSA-filing rates among high school students. Nonetheless, data from the Federal Student Aid office of the U.S. Department of Education indicate that Tennessee high school students submitted 19 percent fewer FAFSAs through November 20, 2020 than over the same window in 2019. FAFSA shortfalls were larger at schools attended by more economically disadvan-taged students. Students in schools participating in the Community Eligibility Provision, which allows schools to serve free breakfast and lunch to all enrolled students, and/or a school-wide Title I program, completed 25-26 percent fewer FAFSAs through November 20, 2020 than they completed by that same date in 2019.6
Figure 4.25. Community and Technical College Enrollment is Normally Countercyclical, Rising During Economic Downturns
Source: Authors’ calculation using IPEDS enrollment figures.
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4.5. COVID-19 AND EDUCATION, CONTINUED
A lost year for learningWhy did college enrollment fall in 2020, and
why are fewer high school seniors preparing to attend college in 2021? We do not have a com-prehensive answer yet, but there are several likely candidates. Online education is one of them.
Online programs can reach students where they are and increase access to education under normal circumstances (Goodman et al, 2019). But full participation requires technology and connec-tivity that is not universally and uniformly avail-able, despite public and private efforts to increase online access and lower the costs of connecting to schools and workplaces during the pandemic.
Many students also prefer in-person to online classes, and they may be planning to defer college until a time when in-person classes re-turn in full force. Given the evidence that online learning is less effective, delayed enrollment could serve students well if (1) they had other formative opportunities in the near term, such as work or service, and if (2) their college and financial aid options could be fixed until they are ready to enroll. Both conditions are question-able. As shown in Section 4.2, the state unem-ployment rate is twice as large as it was prior to the pandemic, and the national unemployment rate for young adults (aged 16 to 25) is still in double digits. Students may need to reapply for financial aid, and some aid packages (including Tennessee Promise) hinge on making a seam-
less move from high school to college. Among older potential students and those with children, online Pre-K-12 education entails caretaking re-sponsibilities that may make college impossible.
Aside from the deterrent effects of online ed-ucation, the abruptness of the downturn combined with continued labor market uncertainty may be responsible for delaying or derailing students’ col-lege plans. Tuition has grown faster than earnings since the last recession, enhancing the perceived risk of enrolling. Potential students are weighing the returns to a costly college education against an employment outlook that remains uncertain.
Looking aheadSome of the pandemic’s effects on the qual-
ity and accessibility of education will be undone when the public health crisis subsides, that is, when students will be able to reliably attend in-person classes again. But a 2020-2021 lost year for learning will continue to resonate for those students who struggle to catch up to grade level, or who fail to fulfill their postsecondary plans.
Previous recessions led firms to adopt cost-cutting technology that replaced labor, and this substitution was particularly potent among less edu-cated workers (Hershbein and Kahn, 2018). Similar dynamics are likely at work now. This leaves students of all ages as well as displaced workers even more vulnerable if they fall behind in 2020-2021, as firms use that same time to race ahead.
4.6. COVID-19 AND EARLY-STAGE BUSINESS FORMATION
Business formation is a critical component of local economic growth. In response to the rapid increase in COVID-19 infections during the early months of 2020, the federal government declared a national emergency on March 13th, thereby prompting a slew of stay-at-home orders. To gauge the effect of this new economic envi-ronment on business activity, the Census Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics (BFS), which offer a high-frequency snapshot of state-level requests for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs), provide
rich detail. Indeed, an EIN application represents one of the many upfront fixed costs necessary to operate a business, and therefore, can be used to anticipate the trajectory of future business activity.
Figure 4.26 shows state-level and national trends in business applications. Two weeks after the national emergency was declared (week 13), the number of individuals filing business applications in the state of Tennessee had fallen 33 percent, matching the national decline. However, business applications began recovering at a faster pace in
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4.6. COVID-19 AND EARLY-STAGE BUSINESS FORMATION, CONTINUED
Tennessee, requiring only 8 weeks to surpass pre-pandemic levels, compared to the national average of 12 weeks. That strength in recovery persisted through the summer months, with business applications reaching more than 200 percent of pre-pandemic levels by week 28. Since then, business applications have gradually trended back toward more “normal” levels, but the stock
of potential start-ups in Tennessee and across the nation remains undeniable.
Overwhelmingly, the national surge in business applications can be attributed to the retail trade sector as shown in Figure 4.27. During the first 40 weeks of the 2020 calendar year, retail trade business applications totaled more than 620,000, dominated by non-store retailers. Adapting to
Figure 4.26: Indexed Business Applications in Tennessee and the Nation During 2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics.
Figure 4.27: Business Applications Across Industries at the National Level
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics.
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2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 105
4.6. COVID-19 AND EARLY-STAGE BUSINESS FORMATION, CONTINUED
more time spent at home due to furlough or re-mote work, it appears that individuals have begun starting retail businesses at a faster clip than ever before. Not surprisingly, the e-commerce website, Etsy, reported nearly 1 million additional active sellers between the first and third quarters of 2020. With the permanent closure of more than 100,000 small businesses since the onset of the COVID-19
pandemic, this surge in early-stage retail business formation represents a welcomed buffer. In the state of Tennessee and across the nation, the transition of business applications into operating business establishments and their persistence into future years will likely determine the pace at which small business activity rebounds from a formidable and challenging year.
4.7. FEDERAL STIMULUS DURING THE PANDEMIC
Unprecedented levels of government spend-ing have been required to help prop up the economy during the pandemic. Most notably, the CARES Act, signed into law in March 2020, pumped more than $2.0 trillion of stimulus money into the economy as a means to limit the economic fallout associated with the pandem-ic. CARES Act relief was distributed through a variety of channels, as can be seen in Figure 4.28. Of particular importance were the Pay-check Protection Program (PPP), which provid-ed economic support for small businesses, and expanded unemployment benefits through three new programs: the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Program (PUA), Pandemic Emergen-cy Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), and Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC). The PUA and PEUC expanded who was eligible for unemployment insurance benefits to include those who are self-employed, independent contractors, and part-time workers and allowed states to provide an additional 13 weeks of fed-erally funded benefits (resulting in an extension from the maximum of 26 weeks to 39 weeks of benefits). As of this writing, these programs expire at the end of December 2020. The FPUC, which expired in July, provided a $600 per week federally funded increase in UI payments (com-pared with average state benefits of around $220 per week). The result was an average of $340 mil-lion in benefits being paid each week in May. This has recently fallen to about $30 million per week.
The PPP enabled the Small Business Admin-istration (SBA) to provide loans to small business-es which would be forgiven if at least 75 percent of the funds were used to cover payroll expens-es, while the rest could be used for nonpayroll expenses like rent, utilities, and interest payments on mortgages. These loans were designed to incentivize small businesses to keep their workers on the payroll. The PPP initially allowed the SBA to loan out $342.3 billion to small businesses, but these funds were quickly depleted. The program
Figure 4.28: Fiscal Aid through the CARES Act Provided Relief through Six Broad Channels
Source: Peter G. Peterson Foundation
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106 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
was later extended to include an additional $320 billion in funds, which expired on August 8, 2020. In total, the SBA lent out $525 billion in PPP loans to businesses across the nation, represent-ing roughly 80% of the total funding available for PPP loans.7 In Tennessee, 99,579 PPP loans were issued through August 8, totaling nearly $9.0 billion in funds. Some additional details on the CARES Act are provided in Section 1.1 of Chap-ter 1, Federal Budget and Stimulus Efforts.
In concert with the CARES Act, The Fed also took a number of quick actions in response to the pandemic, in order to help provide liquidi-ty to the economy. The Fed’s ability to support the economy is largely limited to lending, but even with this limitation they were able to take quick and aggressive actions to limit the eco-nomic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most importantly, in mid-March, the Fed quick-ly cut the target for the federal funds rate (the interest rate that banks pay to each other for
7 https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/SBA-Paycheck-Protection-Program-Loan-Report-Round2.pdf8 https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/
overnight loans) to a range of 0 to 0.25 in an ef-fort to lower the cost of borrowing (see Figure 4.29). This is an important policy tool because it is used as a benchmark for other interest rates such as home mortgages and auto loans, and therefore reduced borrowing costs for consumers. In addition, the Fed also reduced the required re-serve ratio for commercial banks to 0 percent. In recent years, banks were required to hold 10 per-cent of their capital in reserves as a buffer against economic distress. In March, this requirement was lifted to allow banks to provide additional loans to businesses and households as needed. Similar to the Quantitative Easing program maintained during the Great Recession, the Fed also resumed purchasing massive amounts of securities on a monthly basis. From March to June, the Fed’s balance sheet increased from an already high $3.7 trillion to nearly $6.0 trillion.8 And in June the Fed announced that it would continue the large scale purchasing program until further notice. Figure
4.7. FEDERAL STIMULUS DURING THE PANDEMIC, CONTINUED
Figure 4.29: Federal Funds Rate is Back Near Zero
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Inte
rest
rate
(%)
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2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 107
4.7. FEDERAL STIMULUS DURING THE PANDEMIC, CONTINUED
4.30 shows that the current purchasing program is being performed at a scale much higher than during the Great Recession. The purpose of this program was to stabilize U.S. Treasury security prices and inject money into the economy. The Fed also created or relaunched a number of lend-ing facilities through Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act to help issue credit to cash-strapped households, businesses, and municipalities. The Fed’s actions have been appropriately aggressive
given the scope of the pandemic and related economic fallout. However, the Fed’s options for stimulus are pretty limited and Chairman Powell has, on numerous occasions, stated that more fiscal relief from the legislative/executive branch is needed to help support the recovery. Further-more, with COVID-19 cases surging this winter, and most of the provisions from the CARES Act already expired, or set to expire soon, the eco-nomic recovery is certainly on rocky footing.
Figure 4.30: Fed Asset Holdings Skyrocketed in 2020
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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108 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to abrupt changes in the way we live and the way the econ-omy functions. This chapter provides insights into how some of those changes have played out so far. From a health perspective, we are cer-tainly living in dark times, with hospitals around the country nearing (or exceeding) capacity and COVID-19 cases and death rates spiking. Howev-er, news of successful vaccine candidates offer a glimmer of hope, and suggest that there is in fact a light at the end of this incredibly dark tunnel.
From an economic perspective, things are a bit brighter. The state and national economies have proven to be incredibly resilient, as jobs and economic activity have rebounded relatively quickly from their April lows. However, both are still below pre-pandemic peak levels, and a surging virus puts the economic rebound on shaky ground. Furthermore, the economic recovery has been incredibly uneven thus far. Many service sectors are still struggling, as the virus continues to shape
consumer spending patterns. Employment levels among high wage workers in Tennessee have nearly made a full recovery, while employment among lower wage workers is still severely depressed (as shown in Section 4.2). With long-term unem-ployment on the rise, many of these unemployed individuals have likely already exhausted all of their UI benefits. Therefore, even if a second stimulus package is approved, many will be ineligible for further benefits, unless an extension to the maxi-mum number of weeks is also included. And while the stock market has shown strong gains in recent months, many families are still dealing with food insecurity, as discussed in Section 2.5 of Chapter 2. Small businesses have also been severely im-pacted by the pandemic, while larger corporations, especially those with a strong online presence, have done well. Thus, while the aggregate data suggest an improving economy, many sectors, businesses, individuals, and families are still facing dire eco-nomic conditions.
4.8. CONCLUSION
COVID-19 and the Tennessee Economy | CHAPTER 4
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 109
4.9. REFERENCES
Alpert, W. T., Couch, K. A., & Harmon, O. R. (2016). A randomized assessment of online learning. American Economic Review, 106(5), 378-82.
Bettinger, E. P., Fox, L., Loeb, S., & Taylor, E. S. (2017). Virtual classrooms: How online college courses affect student success. American Economic Review, 107(9), 2855-75.
Bueno, C. (2020). Bricks and Mortar vs. Computers and Modems: The Impacts of Enrollment in K-12 Virtual Schools (July 3, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3642969 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3642969
Carruthers, C., Kessler, L., & M. Wanamaker. (2020). COVID-19 Could Shrink the Earnings of Graduates for Years to Come. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/covid-19-could-shrink-the-earnings-of-2020-graduates-for-years-to-come-134765
Carruthers, C. K., & Sanford, T. (2018). Way station or launching pad? Unpacking the returns to adult technical education. Journal of Public Economics, 165, 146-159.
Driving Forward: Ensuring Postsecondary Students Earn Credentials In A Changing Economy.'' (July 2020). Prepared by the University of Tennessee Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research and the State Collaborative on Reforming Education (SCORE). https://drivingforward.tnscore.org/
Dubay, L., Aarons, J., Brow, K.S., Kenney, G.M. (2020). How Risk of Exposure to the Coronavirus at Work Varies by Race and Ethnicity and How to Protect the Health and Well-Being of Workers and Their Families. Urban Institute. https://www.urban.org/research/publication/how-risk-exposure-coronavirus-work-varies-race-and-ethnicity-and-how-protect-health-and-well-being-workers-and-their-families/view/full_report
Figlio, D., Rush, M., & Yin, L. (2013). Is it live or is it internet? Experimental estimates of the effects of online instruction on student learning. Journal of Labor Economics, 31(4), 763-784.
FAFSA® Completion by High School and Public High School District. U.S. Department of Education Office of Federal Student Aid. Online (as of 2020-11-30): https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/application-volume/fafsa-completion-high-school.
Fitzpatrick, B. R., Berends, M., Ferrare, J. J., & Waddington, R. J. (2020). Virtual illusion: Comparing student achievement and teacher and classroom characteristics in online and brick-and-mortar charter schools. Educational Researcher, 49(3), 161-175.
Goodman, J., Melkers, J., & Pallais, A. (2019). Can online delivery increase access to education?. Journal of Labor Economics, 37(1), 1-34.
Hershbein, B., & Kahn, L. B. (2018). Do recessions accelerate routine-biased technological change? Evidence from vacancy postings. American Economic Review, 108(7), 1737-72.
National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s Monthly Update on Higher Education Enrollment. Online (as of 2020-11-30): https://nscresearchcenter.org/stay-informed/.
Smith-Barrow, D. (2020). A worrying trend this fall: Decline in FAFSA applications. The Hechinger Report. https://hechingerreport.org/a-worrying-trend-this-fall-decline-in-fafsa-applications/
Tennessee Board of Regents. Student Access, Equity, and Success in 2020: Data Insights. Online (2020-11-30): https://www.tbr.edu/sites/default/files/media/2020/09/2020_September_Policy%20and%20Strategy_Board%20Slides.pdf
Xu, D., & Jaggars, S. S. (2013). The impact of online learning on students’ course outcomes: Evidence from a large community and technical college system. Economics of Education Review, 37, 46-57.
110 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 1
APPENDIX A: FORECAST DATAIn this Section —
Appendix A: Forecast Data Quarterly Pages 2–25 (2020:4 to 2023:1) Annual Pages 26–38 (2020 to 2030)
QUARTERLY FORECAST TABLES
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted .................................................................2Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted ...............................................4Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2012 dollars) ................5Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars) ............6Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ......................................7Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ...................8Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ............9Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ...........................................10Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ........................12Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ...............13Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars) ................14Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars) .......................15Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars) ............17Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars) ...................18Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted ............................................20Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted ...................................................21Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars) .......................................................22Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars) ..............................................................23Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars) ....................................................24Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars) ...........................................................25
ANNUAL FORECAST TABLES
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted ...............................................................26Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators .................................................................................27Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2012 dollars) .........................................................................28Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars) .....................................................................29Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ...........................................30Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs) ...........................................................31Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs) .....................................................32Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2012 dollars) ............................................................33Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars) ........................................................34Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate .......................................................................................35Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2012 dollars) ..................................................................................................36Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars) ..............................................................................................37Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars) ...............................................................38
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
2 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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363.
924.
104.
604.
824.
894.
683.
98-2
.37
5.07
4.61
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E (M
IL20
12$)
SAA
R…
…31
9219
3107
0730
9335
3065
9930
7059
3089
1531
0757
3130
5231
5462
3177
0331
9871
3223
2530
2654
3114
3830
8333
3165
22%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
…17
.67
-10.
25-1
.75
-3.4
90.
602.
442.
412.
993.
112.
872.
763.
102.
482.
90-1
.00
2.66
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
5.60
2.61
1.84
0.03
-3.8
1-0
.58
0.46
2.10
2.74
2.84
2.93
2.96
2.48
2.90
-1.0
02.
66
US
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
(BIL
2012
$) S
AAR
……
1846
917
817
1726
317
092
1709
117
101
1709
417
195
1728
717
363
1743
617
556
1688
817
660
1709
517
320
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
……
36.3
7-1
3.39
-11.
87-3
.91
-0.0
20.
24-0
.16
2.38
2.14
1.79
1.69
2.78
2.40
4.58
-3.2
01.
32%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…9.
665.
491.
710.
00-7
.46
-4.0
2-0
.98
0.60
1.14
1.53
2.00
2.10
2.40
4.58
-3.2
01.
32
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E (M
IL$)
SAA
R…
……
…35
2529
3466
4134
6490
3453
9334
7739
3517
3735
5629
3598
9736
4208
3682
3837
2358
3766
2833
2473
3463
7635
0125
3661
75%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
…15
.79
-6.5
2-0
.17
-1.2
62.
744.
684.
504.
894.
884.
504.
554.
674.
004.
181.
084.
58%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…6.
283.
973.
201.
63-1
.36
1.47
2.64
4.20
4.74
4.69
4.70
4.65
4.00
4.18
1.08
4.58
US
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
(BIL
$) S
AAR
……
……
2039
719
856
1931
919
196
1930
519
425
1953
219
751
1996
120
154
2034
420
585
1855
219
631
1936
420
052
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
……
34.1
9-1
0.19
-10.
39-2
.51
2.28
2.51
2.23
4.55
4.33
3.91
3.84
4.81
3.92
5.82
-1.3
63.
55%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…10
.37
6.77
2.97
1.29
-5.3
5-2
.17
1.11
2.89
3.40
3.75
4.16
4.22
3.92
5.82
-1.3
63.
55
TN N
ON
FAR
M J
OBS
(TH
OU
S)…
……
……
……
2858
.729
84.2
3033
.030
45.5
3059
.730
83.5
3106
.831
18.4
3128
.731
39.2
3148
.831
59.4
3123
.030
07.0
3073
.931
33.8
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
……
-32.
3518
.76
6.70
1.67
1.88
3.15
3.05
1.50
1.33
1.34
1.23
1.35
1.95
-3.7
12.
231.
95%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-8
.26
-4.6
0-3
.45
-3.3
87.
033.
332.
432.
392.
261.
801.
351.
311.
95-3
.71
2.23
1.95
US
NO
NFA
RM
JO
BS (M
IL)…
……
……
……
……
133.
714
0.8
143.
214
5.8
147.
114
8.1
149.
015
0.1
151.
115
1.7
152.
315
2.7
150.
914
2.4
147.
515
1.3
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
……
-39.
9922
.91
7.10
7.28
3.61
2.89
2.48
3.05
2.58
1.52
1.58
1.21
1.37
-5.6
53.
562.
58%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-1
1.22
-6.8
6-5
.64
-4.0
59.
985.
204.
053.
012.
752.
412.
181.
721.
37-5
.65
3.56
2.58
TN M
FG J
OBS
(TH
OU
S)…
……
……
……
……
…30
6.7
324.
332
7.4
328.
532
9.6
331.
133
2.8
333.
733
4.4
334.
933
5.5
336.
135
5.1
327.
833
0.5
334.
6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
…-4
2.99
25.0
23.
871.
411.
291.
881.
991.
130.
770.
660.
750.
741.
31-7
.67
0.82
1.24
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
-14.
02-8
.86
-7.2
3-6
.92
7.47
2.11
1.64
1.57
1.44
1.14
0.83
0.73
1.31
-7.6
70.
821.
24
US
MFG
JO
BS (M
IL)…
……
……
……
……
……
…11
.812
.112
.212
.312
.412
.412
.412
.512
.512
.512
.512
.612
.812
.212
.412
.5%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
…-2
9.50
13.6
83.
420.
992.
940.
821.
051.
43-0
.35
0.39
2.48
2.10
1.19
-4.6
20.
960.
97%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-8
.35
-5.4
9-4
.69
-4.3
55.
142.
031.
441.
550.
730.
630.
981.
151.
19-4
.62
0.96
0.97
TN U
NEM
PLO
YMEN
T R
ATE
(%)…
……
……
……
12.1
8.2
6.3
5.7
5.4
5.1
4.8
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.2
3.4
7.5
5.2
4.4
US
UN
EMPL
OYM
ENT
RAT
E (%
)……
……
……
13.0
8.8
6.8
6.0
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.0
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.5
3.7
8.1
5.7
4.7
Dece
mbe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
(CO
NTI
NU
ED O
N N
EXT
PAG
E)
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 3
Tabl
e 1:
Sel
ecte
d U.
S. a
nd T
enne
ssee
Eco
nom
ic In
dica
tors
, Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
Dece
mbe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
CH
AIN
ED P
RIC
E IN
DEX
, GD
P (2
012=
100.
0)…
……
……
......
......
......
......
...…
112.
911
3.9
114.
411
4.9
115.
511
6.1
116.
711
7.3
117.
811
8.4
119.
111
9.7
112.
311
3.6
115.
811
8.2
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
……
-1.8
23.
591.
951.
762.
241.
962.
081.
931.
982.
022.
102.
121.
811.
171.
932.
01%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…0.
611.
121.
261.
352.
381.
982.
012.
061.
992.
012.
012.
061.
811.
171.
932.
01
US
PER
S C
ON
SUM
P D
EFL
(201
2=10
0.0)
……
…11
0.4
111.
411
1.9
112.
311
3.0
113.
611
4.3
114.
911
5.5
116.
111
6.7
117.
310
9.9
111.
211
3.3
115.
8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
…-1
.60
3.70
1.68
1.46
2.30
2.26
2.40
2.12
2.15
2.08
2.11
1.98
1.49
1.20
1.90
2.20
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
0.65
1.21
1.25
1.29
2.28
1.92
2.10
2.27
2.23
2.19
2.11
2.08
1.49
1.20
1.90
2.20
CO
NSU
MER
PR
ICE
IND
EX,
ALL-
UR
BAN
(82-
84=1
.000
)……
……
……
……
2.56
32.
595
2.61
02.
621
2.63
82.
657
2.67
72.
693
2.71
02.
726
2.74
32.
758
2.55
72.
589
2.64
82.
718
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
……
-3.5
35.
162.
291.
632.
702.
912.
952.
422.
582.
442.
502.
241.
811.
262.
302.
64%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…0.
441.
251.
231.
342.
942.
382.
552.
752.
712.
602.
492.
441.
811.
262.
302.
64
BAN
K PR
IME
INTE
RES
T R
ATE
(%)…
……
……
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
5.3
3.5
3.3
3.3
FED
ERAL
FU
ND
S R
ATE
(% p
er a
nnum
)……
…0.
060
0.09
30.
100
0.10
00.
100
0.10
00.
100
0.10
00.
100
0.10
00.
100
0.10
02.
158
0.37
80.
100
0.10
0
30-Y
EAR
FIX
ED M
OR
TGAG
E R
ATE
(%)…
……
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.9
3.1
3.0
3.2
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
(MIL
2012
$)…
……
……
…31
443
3320
733
303
3312
733
135
3321
333
379
3367
133
921
3415
734
370
3464
112
8957
1295
6313
2854
1361
19%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
…-2
.10
24.4
01.
17-2
.10
0.10
0.94
2.02
3.54
3.00
2.82
2.51
3.19
4.39
0.47
2.54
2.46
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
-2.2
12.
821.
364.
805.
380.
020.
231.
642.
372.
842.
972.
884.
390.
472.
542.
46
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
(MIL
$)…
……
……
……
……
3472
437
047
3730
437
319
3752
537
817
3819
938
709
3916
339
591
4001
040
477
1416
7014
4124
1508
6015
7472
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
……
-3.6
729
.57
2.80
0.16
2.23
3.15
4.11
5.45
4.76
4.44
4.30
4.76
5.95
1.73
4.67
4.38
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
-1.5
74.
182.
726.
478.
072.
082.
403.
734.
364.
694.
744.
575.
951.
734.
674.
38
TN A
VG A
NN
UAL
WAG
E, N
ON
FAR
M(2
012$
)……
……
…...
......
......
......
..……
…...
...48
594
4805
247
984
4791
747
889
4790
447
915
4809
148
277
4848
748
668
4887
447
349
4806
847
906
4838
0%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
…8.
23-4
.39
-0.5
6-0
.56
-0.2
30.
130.
091.
471.
561.
751.
501.
700.
831.
52-0
.34
0.99
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
2.27
1.67
1.86
0.57
-1.4
5-0
.31
-0.1
40.
360.
811.
221.
571.
630.
831.
52-0
.34
0.99
TN A
VG A
NN
UAL
WAG
E, N
ON
FAR
M ($
)……
…53
665
5360
953
748
5398
054
233
5454
554
834
5528
755
737
5619
956
654
5710
752
012
5346
354
398
5596
9%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
…6.
49-0
.42
1.04
1.74
1.89
2.32
2.14
3.34
3.29
3.36
3.28
3.24
2.33
2.79
1.75
2.89
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
2.93
3.02
3.23
2.18
1.06
1.75
2.02
2.42
2.77
3.03
3.32
3.29
2.33
2.79
1.75
2.89
Boyd
Cen
ter f
or B
usin
ess
and
Econ
omic
Res
earc
h, U
nive
rsity
of T
enne
ssee
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
4 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 2:
Sel
ecte
d Pe
r Cap
ita U
.S. a
nd T
enne
ssee
Eco
nom
ic In
dica
tors
, Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
US
GD
P (2
012$
) SAA
R…
……
……
……
.……
5241
456
210
5662
856
905
5694
957
111
5728
157
640
5800
358
280
5849
358
713
5807
855
729
5706
258
105
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
-31.
7332
.27
3.01
1.97
0.31
1.14
1.20
2.53
2.55
1.92
1.47
1.52
1.67
-4.0
42.
391.
83%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-9
.48
-3.3
9-3
.13
-1.3
18.
651.
601.
151.
291.
852.
052.
121.
861.
67-4
.04
2.39
1.83
US
GD
P ($
) SAA
R…
……
……
……
……
……
…59
131
6399
464
788
6539
065
804
6631
366
854
6759
568
356
6902
769
639
7027
065
201
6332
966
091
6865
6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
…-3
3.16
37.1
85.
063.
772.
563.
133.
314.
514.
583.
983.
603.
673.
49-2
.87
4.36
3.88
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-8.9
4-2
.26
-1.8
8-0
.01
11.2
83.
623.
193.
373.
884.
094.
173.
963.
49-2
.87
4.36
3.88
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E (2
012$
) SAA
R…
…46
355
4511
944
920
4416
244
228
4449
544
761
4473
845
082
4540
245
712
4571
444
321
4522
544
411
4523
4%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
…17
.67
-10.
25-1
.75
-6.5
80.
602.
442.
41-0
.20
3.11
2.87
2.76
0.02
1.60
2.04
-1.8
01.
85%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…4.
711.
750.
98-0
.78
-4.5
9-1
.38
-0.3
51.
301.
932.
042.
132.
181.
602.
04-1
.80
1.85
US
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
(201
2$) S
AAR
……
5594
853
891
5212
351
515
5142
151
362
5125
251
465
5164
851
789
5191
752
184
5137
353
450
5138
751
705
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
35.6
8-1
3.92
-12.
49-4
.59
-0.7
2-0
.46
-0.8
61.
671.
431.
090.
992.
081.
914.
04-3
.86
0.62
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
9.11
4.97
1.14
-0.6
3-8
.09
-4.6
9-1
.67
-0.1
00.
440.
831.
301.
401.
914.
04-3
.86
0.62
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E ($
) SAA
R…
……
…51
192
5033
750
315
4974
950
087
5066
351
224
5143
252
048
5262
453
213
5341
648
688
5029
950
431
5233
0%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
…15
.79
-6.5
2-0
.17
-4.4
22.
744.
684.
501.
644.
884.
504.
551.
533.
113.
310.
263.
76%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…5.
393.
102.
340.
81-2
.16
0.65
1.81
3.38
3.92
3.87
3.88
3.86
3.11
3.31
0.26
3.76
US
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
($) S
AAR
……
……
6178
760
057
5832
857
857
5808
258
340
5856
159
113
5964
060
111
6057
561
187
5643
459
413
5821
159
861
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
33.5
1-1
0.74
-11.
03-3
.19
1.56
1.79
1.52
3.83
3.61
3.19
3.13
4.10
3.42
5.28
-2.0
22.
83%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…9.
826.
242.
400.
66-6
.00
-2.8
60.
402.
172.
683.
033.
443.
513.
425.
28-2
.02
2.83
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
(201
2$)…
……
……
……
4566
4822
4836
4772
4773
4784
4808
4812
4848
4881
4912
4913
1888
518
814
1913
619
453
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
-2.1
024
.40
1.17
-5.2
40.
100.
942.
020.
333.
002.
822.
510.
103.
50-0
.37
1.71
1.65
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-3.0
31.
960.
513.
954.
53-0
.79
-0.5
80.
851.
572.
042.
162.
103.
50-0
.37
1.71
1.65
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
($)…
……
……
……
……
5042
5380
5417
5375
5405
5447
5502
5532
5597
5658
5718
5741
2074
620
929
2172
922
504
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
-3.6
729
.57
2.80
-3.0
52.
233.
154.
112.
184.
764.
444.
301.
625.
040.
883.
823.
57%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-2
.40
3.31
1.86
5.61
7.19
1.25
1.57
2.91
3.55
3.87
3.92
3.77
5.04
0.88
3.82
3.57
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 5
Tabl
e 3:
Ten
ness
ee P
erso
nal I
ncom
e Co
mpo
nent
s, S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d An
nual
Rat
es (m
illio
ns o
f 201
2 do
llars
)
2020
:120
20:2
2020
:320
20:4
2021
:120
21:2
2021
:320
21:4
2022
:120
22:2
2022
:320
22:4
2023
:120
1920
2020
2120
22
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E……
……
...…
……
3064
9231
9219
3107
0730
9335
3065
9930
7059
3089
1531
0757
3130
5231
5462
3177
0331
9871
3223
2530
2654
3114
3830
8333
3165
22%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
…3.
6617
.67
-10.
25-1
.75
-3.4
90.
602.
442.
412.
993.
112.
872.
763.
102.
482.
90-1
.00
2.66
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
1.57
5.60
2.61
1.84
0.03
-3.8
1-0
.58
0.46
2.10
2.74
2.84
2.93
2.96
2.48
2.90
-1.0
02.
66
WAG
ES A
ND
SAL
ARIE
S……
……
……
1510
3013
9763
1442
5914
6401
1467
9014
7387
1485
7714
9724
1508
2515
1905
1530
6615
4103
1552
6614
8719
1453
6314
8120
1524
75%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
…6.
01-2
6.66
13.5
06.
071.
071.
643.
273.
122.
972.
893.
092.
743.
052.
76-2
.26
1.90
2.94
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
1.75
-6.1
5-2
.97
-1.6
4-2
.81
5.46
2.99
2.27
2.75
3.07
3.02
2.92
2.94
2.76
-2.2
61.
902.
94
OTH
ER L
ABO
R IN
CO
ME…
……
……
…32
699
3098
532
065
3314
333
421
3358
033
740
3390
834
202
3450
634
750
3503
035
309
3251
232
223
3366
234
622
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
2.38
-19.
3814
.69
14.1
43.
391.
921.
922.
003.
513.
612.
853.
273.
222.
01-0
.89
4.47
2.85
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
0.79
-4.8
1-1
.48
1.96
2.21
8.38
5.22
2.31
2.34
2.76
2.99
3.31
3.24
2.01
-0.8
94.
472.
85
PRO
PRIE
TOR
S IN
CO
ME…
……
……
…42
398
3383
436
268
3854
540
217
4048
941
277
4201
242
425
4289
143
123
4341
743
719
4178
737
761
4099
942
964
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
0.08
-59.
4532
.03
27.5
818
.51
2.73
8.01
7.32
3.99
4.47
2.18
2.76
2.81
3.05
-9.6
38.
574.
79%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
…2.
29-1
8.03
-13.
71-9
.07
-5.1
519
.67
13.8
18.
995.
495.
934.
473.
343.
053.
05-9
.63
8.57
4.79
REN
T, IN
TER
EST,
DIV
IDEN
DS…
……
4482
444
004
4322
743
140
4293
542
736
4267
342
674
4273
342
843
4300
643
139
4332
544
907
4379
942
754
4293
0%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
…-0
.56
-7.1
2-6
.87
-0.8
1-1
.89
-1.8
4-0
.59
0.01
0.56
1.03
1.53
1.24
1.73
-0.2
5-2
.47
-2.3
80.
41%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
…-0
.15
-2.2
2-3
.62
-3.8
9-4
.21
-2.8
8-1
.28
-1.0
8-0
.47
0.25
0.78
1.09
1.38
-0.2
5-2
.47
-2.3
80.
41
TRAN
SFER
PAY
MEN
TS…
……
……
…61
592
9525
679
130
7209
167
236
6691
866
776
6661
167
081
6761
368
139
6863
569
268
6031
377
017
6688
567
867
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
5.94
472.
13-5
2.38
-31.
11-2
4.34
-1.8
8-0
.85
-0.9
82.
853.
213.
152.
943.
744.
1227
.70
-13.
161.
47%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
…2.
5958
.20
31.2
418
.75
9.16
-29.
75-1
5.61
-7.6
0-0
.23
1.04
2.04
3.04
3.26
4.12
27.7
0-1
3.16
1.47
LESS
: PE
RS
CO
NT
FOR
SO
C IN
S……
2404
422
818
2245
422
202
2222
322
281
2236
422
416
2246
322
550
2263
822
715
2282
523
628
2287
922
321
2259
1%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
…6.
79-1
8.88
-6.2
4-4
.42
0.38
1.05
1.50
0.93
0.84
1.56
1.57
1.36
1.96
3.25
-3.1
7-2
.44
1.21
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
2.09
-3.6
0-5
.01
-6.1
3-7
.57
-2.3
6-0
.40
0.96
1.08
1.21
1.22
1.33
1.61
3.25
-3.1
7-2
.44
1.21
RES
IDEN
CE
ADJU
STM
ENT…
……
……
-200
7-1
805
-178
9-1
784
-177
7-1
770
-176
3-1
757
-175
2-1
747
-174
3-1
739
-173
5-1
958
-184
6-1
767
-174
5%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
…16
.64
-34.
47-3
.52
-1.0
7-1
.72
-1.5
3-1
.56
-1.4
0-1
.18
-1.0
3-0
.89
-1.0
3-0
.78
4.94
-5.6
8-4
.32
-1.2
2%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
…2.
94-9
.10
-8.9
2-7
.58
-11.
46-1
.96
-1.4
7-1
.55
-1.4
2-1
.29
-1.1
3-1
.03
-0.9
34.
94-5
.68
-4.3
2-1
.22
PER
CAP
ITA
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
($)…
…44
507
4635
545
119
4492
044
162
4422
844
495
4476
144
738
4508
245
402
4571
245
714
4432
145
225
4441
145
234
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
0.22
17.6
7-1
0.25
-1.7
5-6
.58
0.60
2.44
2.41
-0.2
03.
112.
872.
760.
021.
602.
04-1
.80
1.85
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
0.72
4.71
1.75
0.98
-0.7
8-4
.59
-1.3
8-0
.35
1.30
1.93
2.04
2.13
2.18
1.60
2.04
-1.8
01.
85
Boyd
Cen
ter f
or B
usin
ess
and
Econ
omic
Res
earc
h, U
nive
rsity
of T
enne
ssee
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Dece
mbe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2012 dollars)
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
6 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 4:
Ten
ness
ee P
erso
nal I
ncom
e C
ompo
nent
s, S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d An
nual
Rat
es (m
illio
ns o
f cur
rent
dol
lars
)
2020
:120
20:2
2020
:320
20:4
2021
:120
21:2
2021
:320
21:4
2022
:120
22:2
2022
:320
22:4
2023
:120
1920
2020
2120
22
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E……
……
..33
9845
3525
2934
6641
3464
9034
5393
3477
3935
1737
3556
2935
9897
3642
0836
8238
3723
5837
6628
3324
7334
6376
3501
2536
6175
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
4.99
15.7
9-6
.52
-0.1
7-1
.26
2.74
4.68
4.50
4.89
4.88
4.50
4.55
4.67
4.00
4.18
1.08
4.58
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
3.28
6.28
3.97
3.20
1.63
-1.3
61.
472.
644.
204.
744.
694.
704.
654.
004.
181.
084.
58
WAG
ES A
ND
SAL
ARIE
S……
……
1674
6515
4347
1609
4316
3986
1653
6416
6913
1691
7317
1344
1733
9417
5378
1774
1417
9389
1814
2316
3370
1616
8516
8199
1763
94%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
…7.
37-2
7.84
18.2
27.
783.
403.
805.
535.
234.
874.
654.
734.
534.
614.
29-1
.03
4.03
4.87
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
3.46
-5.5
4-1
.69
-0.3
2-1
.26
8.14
5.11
4.49
4.86
5.07
4.87
4.70
4.63
4.29
-1.0
34.
034.
87
OTH
ER L
ABO
R IN
CO
ME…
……
…36
257
3421
835
774
3712
437
650
3802
938
417
3880
439
320
3983
840
277
4077
841
257
3571
535
843
3822
540
053
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
3.69
-20.
6719
.46
15.9
85.
784.
094.
154.
095.
425.
384.
485.
074.
783.
520.
366.
644.
78%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
…2.
49-4
.20
-0.1
83.
323.
8411
.14
7.39
4.52
4.44
4.76
4.84
5.09
4.93
3.52
0.36
6.64
4.78
PRO
PRIE
TOR
S IN
CO
ME…
……
…47
012
3736
540
463
4317
545
305
4585
346
998
4807
948
774
4951
949
982
5054
151
084
4590
642
004
4655
949
704
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
1.37
-60.
1037
.52
29.6
321
.25
4.92
10.3
79.
525.
916.
253.
794.
554.
374.
59-8
.50
10.8
46.
76%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
…4.
01-1
7.50
-12.
57-7
.85
-3.6
322
.72
16.1
511
.36
7.66
8.00
6.35
5.12
4.74
4.59
-8.5
010
.84
6.76
REN
T, IN
TER
EST,
DIV
IDEN
DS…
4970
148
595
4822
748
322
4836
848
398
4858
848
836
4912
849
463
4984
750
218
5062
449
331
4871
148
547
4966
4%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
…0.
72-8
.61
-3.0
00.
790.
380.
251.
582.
062.
412.
763.
143.
013.
271.
23-1
.26
-0.3
42.
30%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
…1.
54-1
.59
-2.3
4-2
.60
-2.6
8-0
.41
0.75
1.06
1.57
2.20
2.59
2.83
3.04
1.23
-1.2
6-0
.34
2.30
TRAN
SFER
PAY
MEN
TS…
……
…68
294
1051
9788
282
8075
175
744
7578
376
032
7622
977
119
7806
178
978
7989
880
938
6625
685
631
7594
778
514
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
7.30
462.
96-5
0.40
-30.
00-2
2.59
0.21
1.32
1.04
4.75
4.98
4.78
4.74
5.31
5.67
29.2
4-1
1.31
3.38
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
4.32
59.2
232
.97
20.3
410
.91
-27.
96-1
3.88
-5.6
01.
823.
013.
874.
814.
955.
6729
.24
-11.
313.
38
LESS
: PE
RS
CO
NT
FOR
SO
C IN
2666
025
200
2505
124
869
2503
525
233
2546
425
652
2582
426
034
2623
926
442
2667
025
956
2544
525
346
2613
5%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
…8.
16-2
0.18
-2.3
4-2
.88
2.70
3.20
3.72
2.99
2.70
3.30
3.18
3.13
3.50
4.78
-1.9
7-0
.39
3.11
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
3.82
-2.9
7-3
.75
-4.8
7-6
.10
0.13
1.65
3.15
3.15
3.18
3.04
3.08
3.28
4.78
-1.9
7-0
.39
3.11
RES
IDEN
CE
ADJU
STM
ENT…
…-2
225
-199
4-1
996
-199
9-2
002
-200
4-2
007
-201
0-2
014
-201
7-2
020
-202
4-2
028
-215
1-2
053
-200
6-2
019
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
18.1
4-3
5.52
0.49
0.52
0.55
0.57
0.59
0.62
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.70
0.72
6.49
-4.5
1-2
.31
0.64
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
4.68
-8.5
1-7
.71
-6.3
4-1
0.04
0.53
0.56
0.58
0.60
0.63
0.65
0.67
0.69
6.49
-4.5
1-2
.31
0.64
PER
CAP
ITA
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
4935
051
192
5033
750
315
4974
950
087
5066
351
224
5143
252
048
5262
453
213
5341
648
688
5029
950
431
5233
0%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
…1.
5115
.79
-6.5
2-0
.17
-4.4
22.
744.
684.
501.
644.
884.
504.
551.
533.
113.
310.
263.
76%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
…2.
425.
393.
102.
340.
81-2
.16
0.65
1.81
3.38
3.92
3.87
3.88
3.86
3.11
3.31
0.26
3.76
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars)
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 7
Tabl
e 5:
Ten
ness
ee N
onfa
rm E
mpl
oym
ent b
y Se
ctor
, Not
Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
(thou
sand
s of
jobs
)
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…28
57.1
2976
.430
64.2
3026
.230
59.9
3076
.331
38.6
3098
.231
29.1
3132
.031
81.0
3138
.931
22.1
3007
.430
75.2
3135
.1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
...-8
.25
-4.6
4-3
.44
-3.3
77.
103.
362.
432.
382.
261.
811.
351.
311.
92-3
.67
2.26
1.95
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
, MIN
ING
& C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N…
130.
513
1.9
133.
113
0.6
133.
613
5.4
135.
413
3.1
136.
113
7.8
137.
513
5.0
134.
313
1.6
133.
813
6.1
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
-3.8
3-3
.68
-1.2
7-0
.24
2.35
2.70
1.73
1.89
1.89
1.72
1.55
1.47
4.15
-1.9
81.
641.
76M
ANU
FAC
TUR
ING
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…30
6.3
325.
132
7.8
327.
932
9.0
331.
933
3.3
333.
133
3.7
335.
633
6.0
335.
535
5.1
327.
933
0.5
334.
6%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
...-1
3.97
-8.8
1-7
.27
-6.9
67.
432.
101.
651.
581.
431.
130.
830.
731.
31-7
.66
0.80
1.24
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…19
0.4
204.
820
6.8
207.
120
7.5
208.
820
9.5
209.
520
9.8
210.
921
1.0
210.
922
7.4
206.
520
8.2
210.
3%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
...-1
6.67
-10.
36-8
.05
-7.4
68.
961.
951.
301.
191.
100.
980.
760.
671.
47-9
.22
0.85
1.01
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
……
……
……
115.
812
0.2
121.
112
0.8
121.
512
3.1
123.
812
3.5
124.
012
4.8
125.
012
4.6
127.
712
1.4
122.
312
4.3
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
-9.1
3-6
.04
-5.9
1-6
.08
4.92
2.34
2.26
2.26
2.01
1.39
0.95
0.84
1.02
-4.8
80.
711.
65TR
ADE,
TR
ANSP
OR
TATI
ON
, UTI
LITI
ES…
……
……
……
616.
163
2.8
652.
263
9.6
645.
864
7.5
660.
764
5.5
649.
464
9.0
661.
664
6.5
638.
763
7.0
648.
465
1.4
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
-2.6
8-0
.54
-0.5
5-1
.18
4.83
2.32
1.30
0.93
0.55
0.24
0.15
0.16
1.94
-0.2
61.
780.
46W
HO
LESA
LE T
RAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…11
5.7
116.
911
9.6
119.
112
0.1
122.
112
2.6
121.
812
2.5
123.
212
4.0
123.
112
1.0
118.
212
1.0
122.
9%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
...-4
.38
-3.5
7-1
.75
-1.3
13.
844.
402.
562.
262.
000.
921.
081.
101.
44-2
.31
2.34
1.56
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
322.
133
5.9
346.
733
8.4
342.
534
0.3
347.
133
7.2
339.
533
7.4
344.
033
4.2
335.
333
5.9
342.
133
9.5
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
-3.1
31.
130.
75-0
.13
6.33
1.30
0.12
-0.3
7-0
.88
-0.8
6-0
.90
-0.9
0-0
.15
0.19
1.84
-0.7
5TR
ANSP
OR
TATI
ON
& U
TILI
TIES
……
……
……
……
……
178.
317
9.9
185.
918
2.0
183.
218
5.1
190.
918
6.5
187.
418
8.5
193.
618
9.2
182.
418
2.9
185.
318
9.0
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
-0.7
1-1
.59
-2.1
4-3
.01
2.76
2.90
2.69
2.49
2.28
1.82
1.43
1.46
6.38
0.29
1.30
2.00
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
42.8
43.1
43.8
43.6
44.4
44.4
45.0
44.6
45.3
45.0
45.4
44.9
45.5
43.8
44.4
45.1
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
-6.0
8-5
.69
-5.8
8-4
.34
3.86
3.10
2.61
2.13
1.94
1.39
0.98
0.78
0.72
-3.6
51.
231.
61FI
NAN
CIA
L AC
TIVI
TIES
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…17
2.5
174.
717
5.3
175.
417
6.6
177.
117
6.9
176.
717
8.0
178.
917
9.0
179.
017
2.2
174.
217
6.5
178.
1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
...0.
330.
461.
260.
722.
341.
350.
880.
730.
791.
011.
181.
342.
281.
151.
320.
93PR
OFE
SSIO
NAL
& B
USI
NES
S SE
RVI
CES
……
……
……
387.
040
5.9
418.
040
7.4
414.
042
1.5
432.
442
4.5
431.
843
8.5
447.
443
7.9
426.
640
8.8
418.
943
5.6
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
-8.7
5-5
.25
-4.0
9-3
.94
6.99
3.86
3.45
4.20
4.29
4.03
3.47
3.16
2.53
-4.1
82.
473.
99ED
UC
ATIO
N &
HEA
LTH
SER
VIC
ES…
……
……
……
……
418.
342
9.3
439.
943
6.8
437.
243
9.9
451.
844
9.0
449.
945
0.5
460.
345
7.6
442.
243
3.9
441.
445
2.4
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
-4.8
5-2
.56
-2.0
0-2
.50
4.51
2.47
2.71
2.80
2.92
2.40
1.87
1.90
1.46
-1.8
91.
742.
49LE
ISU
RE
& H
OSP
ITAL
ITY…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…25
2.6
304.
731
6.1
313.
733
4.9
340.
933
8.8
332.
335
2.3
352.
734
4.4
338.
034
9.1
304.
533
2.1
345.
4%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
...-2
8.51
-14.
70-1
0.57
-9.0
132
.61
11.8
87.
195.
915.
183.
471.
651.
723.
37-1
2.76
9.05
4.01
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…10
7.1
117.
911
7.5
116.
811
9.4
120.
512
1.1
120.
412
3.1
122.
912
2.5
122.
012
1.2
115.
611
9.5
122.
2%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
...-1
2.31
-3.5
5-3
.12
-2.5
711
.52
2.24
3.08
3.10
3.05
2.02
1.16
1.31
2.38
-4.6
63.
362.
33G
OVE
RN
MEN
T……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…42
3.9
411.
243
7.5
433.
242
4.8
417.
244
3.5
439.
542
9.9
421.
844
7.9
443.
743
7.2
429.
342
9.6
434.
8%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
...-2
.03
-2.9
1-2
.79
-2.6
00.
191.
461.
381.
461.
211.
121.
010.
950.
34-1
.81
0.07
1.20
FED
ERAL
, CIV
ILIA
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…50
.254
.051
.850
.150
.350
.450
.650
.350
.550
.650
.750
.550
.151
.550
.350
.5%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
...0.
677.
082.
610.
030.
14-6
.61
-2.3
40.
450.
400.
340.
350.
241.
922.
89-2
.28
0.38
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
373.
735
7.2
385.
638
3.0
374.
536
6.6
392.
938
9.1
379.
437
1.1
397.
239
3.2
387.
237
7.8
379.
238
4.2
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
-2.3
9-4
.26
-3.4
9-2
.94
0.20
2.63
1.89
1.59
1.32
1.23
1.09
1.04
0.14
-2.4
20.
391.
31
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0H
isto
ryFo
reca
st D
ata
Annu
al
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
8 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 6:
Ten
ness
ee D
urab
le G
oods
Man
ufac
turin
g Em
ploy
men
t, N
ot S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (th
ousa
nds
of jo
bs)
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
TOTA
L D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
……
…19
0.4
204.
820
6.8
207.
120
7.5
208.
820
9.5
209.
520
9.8
210.
921
1.0
210.
922
7.4
206.
520
8.2
210.
3%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-1
6.67
-10.
36-8
.05
-7.4
68.
961.
951.
301.
191.
100.
980.
760.
671.
47-9
.22
0.85
1.01
WO
OD
PR
OD
UC
TS…
……
……
……
……
……
…12
.713
.313
.413
.113
.213
.112
.912
.612
.712
.712
.612
.412
.612
.913
.112
.6%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…1.
334.
715.
976.
133.
80-1
.47
-3.5
7-4
.06
-3.8
6-3
.09
-2.4
1-1
.45
0.20
3.09
1.10
-3.3
6
NO
NM
ETAL
LIC
MIN
ERAL
PR
OD
UC
TS…
……
…13
.914
.514
.514
.514
.614
.714
.714
.714
.914
.914
.814
.814
.314
.314
.614
.8%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-3
.70
1.16
2.43
2.55
5.30
1.34
0.91
1.42
1.54
1.29
1.01
0.86
0.53
-0.1
62.
491.
32
PRIM
ARY
MET
ALS…
……
….…
……
……
……
…11
.512
.112
.212
.112
.011
.911
.811
.811
.611
.611
.511
.511
.311
.812
.011
.6%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…1.
766.
768.
278.
453.
95-1
.25
-3.3
0-3
.23
-3.3
7-3
.11
-2.5
8-2
.39
2.72
3.82
1.80
-3.0
8
FABR
ICAT
ED M
ETAL
PR
OD
UC
TS…
……
……
…37
.038
.538
.437
.837
.837
.937
.737
.537
.537
.637
.437
.238
.037
.837
.837
.5%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-2
.89
0.87
1.43
1.40
2.21
-1.4
9-1
.88
-0.7
7-0
.77
-0.6
9-0
.78
-0.9
63.
78-0
.52
0.03
-0.7
5
MAC
HIN
ERY…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…25
.726
.626
.026
.026
.326
.025
.726
.026
.426
.125
.926
.126
.626
.026
.026
.1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-4
.82
0.38
0.07
-0.0
12.
45-2
.33
-0.7
90.
310.
400.
500.
420.
372.
90-1
.99
-0.1
90.
41
CO
MPU
TER
& E
LEC
TRO
NIC
PR
OD
UC
TS…
…5.
65.
85.
85.
85.
95.
95.
85.
85.
85.
75.
75.
75.
75.
75.
95.
7%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-1
.75
2.96
3.98
5.96
4.52
1.61
0.36
-0.4
0-1
.69
-2.7
2-2
.68
-2.2
57.
960.
543.
06-1
.87
ELEC
TRIC
AL E
QU
IPM
ENT,
APP
LIAN
CES
& C
OM
PON
ENTS
……
……
..……
……
……
……
17.6
17.9
17.5
17.4
17.3
17.3
17.2
17.0
17.0
17.0
16.8
16.7
17.6
17.6
17.3
17.0
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
-0.1
91.
891.
19-0
.35
-1.3
7-3
.36
-2.0
9-2
.14
-1.9
5-1
.85
-1.9
8-1
.93
-5.8
50.
29-1
.80
-1.9
8
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N E
QU
IPM
ENT…
……
……
…40
.148
.451
.753
.653
.955
.357
.157
.757
.458
.459
.660
.075
.153
.455
.058
.3%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-4
6.98
-35.
96-2
9.54
-27.
0834
.20
14.1
810
.43
7.71
6.56
5.56
4.32
4.01
1.46
-28.
872.
856.
01
FUR
NIT
UR
E……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
9.6
10.2
10.0
9.9
9.7
9.6
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.7
9.8
9.9
9.7
9.9
9.7
9.7
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
-0.3
54.
811.
870.
360.
63-5
.68
-4.8
6-2
.32
0.62
1.61
3.23
2.33
0.95
2.11
-2.4
40.
76
MIS
CEL
LAN
EOU
S D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
16.7
17.5
17.2
16.9
16.9
17.1
16.9
16.8
16.9
17.1
16.9
16.7
16.6
17.0
16.9
16.9
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
1.21
3.55
2.29
1.86
0.84
-2.5
3-1
.21
-0.6
8-0
.05
0.07
-0.1
9-0
.43
1.63
2.13
-0.2
9-0
.21
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 9
Tabl
e 7:
Ten
ness
ee N
ondu
rabl
e G
oods
Man
ufac
turin
g Em
ploy
men
t, N
ot S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (th
ousa
nds
of jo
bs)
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
TOTA
L N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
115.
812
0.2
121.
112
0.8
121.
512
3.1
123.
812
3.5
124.
012
4.8
125.
012
4.6
127.
712
1.4
122.
312
4.3
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
-9.1
3-6
.04
-5.9
1-6
.08
4.92
2.34
2.26
2.26
2.01
1.39
0.95
0.84
1.02
-4.8
80.
711.
65
FOO
D…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
33.3
33.3
33.4
33.4
33.8
34.4
34.7
34.6
34.7
35.0
35.1
35.0
35.9
34.0
34.1
34.8
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
-6.8
0-7
.85
-7.9
2-7
.28
1.50
3.41
3.90
3.64
2.50
1.72
1.24
0.98
0.54
-5.2
10.
232.
26
BEVE
RAG
E &
TOBA
CC
O…
……
……
……
……
…7.
17.
37.
57.
37.
57.
77.
77.
57.
77.
87.
87.
67.
47.
47.
57.
7%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-2
.73
-3.0
8-2
.45
-4.5
25.
104.
672.
512.
682.
641.
821.
171.
122.
540.
151.
852.
07
PAPE
R…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…12
.612
.712
.512
.612
.712
.812
.612
.612
.612
.712
.412
.412
.612
.612
.712
.6%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…1.
07-1
.04
-1.7
1-1
.26
0.43
0.83
0.33
-0.0
9-0
.61
-1.2
0-1
.30
-1.2
54.
140.
430.
08-0
.80
PRIN
TIN
G &
REL
ATED
SU
PPO
RT…
……
……
…6.
97.
07.
06.
96.
86.
86.
96.
86.
76.
76.
86.
78.
97.
46.
96.
7%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-2
2.10
-21.
72-2
1.40
-21.
13-1
.49
-1.9
7-1
.72
-1.5
5-1
.42
-1.6
3-1
.65
-1.6
2-0
.74
-16.
77-7
.45
-1.5
6
CH
EMIC
ALS…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…25
.825
.925
.925
.926
.026
.126
.126
.126
.226
.426
.426
.425
.925
.926
.026
.3%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-0
.51
-0.3
8-0
.63
-0.8
00.
660.
780.
800.
951.
041.
000.
981.
021.
53-0
.06
0.36
0.99
PLAS
TIC
S &
RU
BBER
……
……
……
……
……
…19
.721
.722
.022
.122
.122
.522
.822
.923
.123
.223
.323
.424
.822
.022
.423
.1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-2
1.33
-12.
03-1
0.25
-9.4
812
.36
3.51
3.45
3.75
4.33
3.13
2.07
1.76
-0.0
3-1
1.56
1.86
3.31
MIS
CEL
LAN
EOU
S N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
…10
.412
.412
.712
.712
.712
.813
.013
.013
.013
.113
.213
.212
.112
.112
.813
.1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-1
4.09
3.92
2.15
-2.4
422
.05
3.29
2.82
2.82
2.75
2.19
1.53
1.57
0.83
-0.3
45.
652.
32
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
10 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 8:
Ten
ness
ee N
onfa
rm E
mpl
oym
ent b
y Se
ctor
, Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
(thou
sand
s of
jobs
)
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…28
58.7
2984
.230
33.0
3045
.530
59.7
3083
.531
06.8
3118
.431
28.7
3139
.231
48.8
3159
.431
23.0
3007
.030
73.9
3133
.8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-3
2.35
18.7
66.
701.
671.
883.
153.
051.
501.
331.
341.
231.
351.
95-3
.71
2.23
1.95
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-8.2
6-4
.60
-3.4
5-3
.38
7.03
3.33
2.43
2.39
2.26
1.80
1.35
1.31
1.95
-3.7
12.
231.
95
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
, MIN
ING
AN
D C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N…
……
……
……
……
…13
0.5
130.
613
2.6
133.
013
3.5
134.
213
4.9
135.
513
6.1
136.
513
6.9
137.
513
4.2
131.
713
3.9
136.
2%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-8
.33
0.51
6.03
1.38
1.55
1.93
2.06
2.01
1.56
1.24
1.40
1.68
4.03
-1.8
01.
631.
76%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-2
.88
-2.8
7-1
.27
-0.2
42.
352.
701.
731.
891.
891.
721.
551.
474.
03-1
.80
1.63
1.76
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G…
……
……
……
……
……
…30
6.7
324.
332
7.4
328.
532
9.6
331.
133
2.8
333.
733
4.4
334.
933
5.5
336.
135
5.1
327.
833
0.5
334.
6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-4
2.99
25.0
23.
871.
411.
291.
881.
991.
130.
770.
660.
750.
741.
31-7
.67
0.82
1.24
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-14.
02-8
.86
-7.2
3-6
.92
7.47
2.11
1.64
1.57
1.44
1.14
0.83
0.73
1.31
-7.6
70.
821.
24
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
190.
620
4.3
206.
620
7.4
207.
820
8.3
209.
320
9.8
210.
121
0.4
210.
821
1.2
227.
420
6.4
208.
221
0.3
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-47.
4831
.94
4.56
1.48
0.91
0.97
1.76
1.06
0.65
0.48
0.83
0.69
1.48
-9.2
50.
881.
01%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-1
6.75
-10.
44-7
.99
-7.4
09.
021.
971.
281.
171.
110.
990.
760.
661.
48-9
.25
0.88
1.01
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…11
6.0
120.
012
0.8
121.
212
1.8
122.
812
3.5
123.
912
4.2
124.
512
4.7
124.
912
7.7
121.
412
2.3
124.
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-3
4.52
14.2
52.
721.
281.
963.
432.
391.
250.
980.
950.
600.
811.
02-4
.87
0.70
1.65
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-9.1
1-6
.05
-5.9
0-6
.07
4.92
2.34
2.26
2.26
2.01
1.39
0.95
0.84
1.02
-4.8
70.
701.
65
TRAD
E, T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, U
TILI
TIES
……
617.
763
5.1
642.
464
4.9
647.
564
9.9
650.
865
0.9
651.
165
1.4
651.
765
1.9
639.
363
6.9
648.
265
1.3
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-19.
7411
.80
4.67
1.53
1.64
1.48
0.56
0.05
0.12
0.23
0.18
0.11
2.06
-0.3
71.
770.
47%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-2
.99
-0.5
1-0
.55
-1.1
84.
832.
321.
300.
930.
550.
240.
150.
162.
06-0
.37
1.77
0.47
WH
OLE
SALE
TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
…11
5.9
116.
811
9.0
119.
712
0.3
121.
912
2.1
122.
412
2.7
123.
012
3.4
123.
712
0.9
118.
212
1.0
122.
9%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-1
6.66
3.14
8.04
2.14
2.14
5.38
0.63
0.96
1.10
1.01
1.26
1.02
1.40
-2.2
42.
331.
56%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-4
.19
-3.6
0-1
.75
-1.3
13.
844.
402.
562.
262.
000.
921.
081.
101.
40-2
.24
2.33
1.56
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
322.
633
7.8
341.
134
2.0
343.
034
2.2
341.
534
0.7
340.
033
9.3
338.
533
7.7
335.
633
6.0
342.
233
9.6
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-21.
2320
.32
3.92
1.03
1.20
-0.9
1-0
.81
-0.9
4-0
.87
-0.8
2-0
.95
-0.9
4-0
.03
0.11
1.84
-0.7
5%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-3
.37
1.20
0.75
-0.1
36.
331.
300.
12-0
.37
-0.8
8-0
.86
-0.9
0-0
.90
-0.0
30.
111.
84-0
.75
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N &
UTI
LITI
ES…
……
…17
9.2
180.
518
2.3
183.
218
4.2
185.
818
7.2
187.
818
8.4
189.
118
9.9
190.
518
2.8
182.
718
5.1
188.
8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-1
8.95
2.93
3.91
2.08
2.12
3.49
3.07
1.28
1.30
1.65
1.51
1.39
6.59
-0.0
21.
282.
00%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-1
.52
-1.5
6-2
.14
-3.0
12.
762.
902.
692.
492.
281.
821.
431.
466.
59-0
.02
1.28
2.00
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…42
.543
.143
.643
.944
.244
.544
.744
.945
.045
.145
.245
.245
.543
.844
.345
.0%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-2
6.48
5.76
4.18
3.38
2.14
2.70
2.23
1.45
1.39
0.51
0.58
0.63
0.91
-3.7
71.
211.
61%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-6
.18
-5.8
9-5
.88
-4.3
43.
863.
102.
612.
131.
941.
390.
980.
780.
91-3
.77
1.21
1.61
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
…17
2.4
174.
317
5.4
176.
117
6.4
176.
717
6.9
177.
317
7.8
178.
417
9.0
179.
717
2.3
174.
217
6.5
178.
2%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-5
.38
4.48
2.52
1.52
0.87
0.50
0.64
0.92
1.12
1.37
1.33
1.56
2.35
1.11
1.32
0.93
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.25
0.60
1.26
0.72
2.34
1.35
0.88
0.73
0.79
1.01
1.18
1.34
2.35
1.11
1.32
0.93
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
(CO
NTI
NU
ED O
N N
EXT
PAG
E)
Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 11
Tabl
e 8:
Ten
ness
ee N
onfa
rm E
mpl
oym
ent b
y Se
ctor
, Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
(thou
sand
s of
jobs
)
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
PRO
FESS
ION
AL &
BU
SIN
ESS
SER
VIC
ES…
388.
640
5.2
411.
641
2.7
415.
842
0.9
425.
843
0.0
433.
643
7.8
440.
544
3.6
426.
840
8.8
418.
843
5.5
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-33.
0318
.21
6.41
1.09
3.03
4.97
4.75
4.05
3.41
3.91
2.52
2.79
2.58
-4.2
22.
453.
99%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-8
.62
-5.3
4-4
.09
-3.9
46.
993.
863.
454.
204.
294.
033.
473.
162.
58-4
.22
2.45
3.99
EDU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
419.
443
2.0
435.
243
7.0
438.
344
2.7
447.
044
9.2
451.
245
3.3
455.
445
7.8
441.
943
3.7
441.
345
2.3
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-23.
2812
.57
3.00
1.59
1.28
4.04
3.97
1.95
1.76
1.92
1.85
2.08
1.38
-1.8
61.
742.
49%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-4
.87
-2.4
9-2
.00
-2.5
04.
512.
472.
712.
802.
922.
401.
871.
901.
38-1
.86
1.74
2.49
LEIS
UR
E &
HO
SPIT
ALIT
Y……
……
……
……
…24
6.5
297.
931
7.9
323.
232
6.9
333.
234
0.8
342.
334
3.8
344.
834
6.4
348.
234
9.0
304.
433
1.0
344.
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-7
6.80
113.
2229
.80
6.75
4.69
8.00
9.38
1.75
1.81
1.15
1.91
2.01
3.36
-12.
788.
764.
02%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-2
8.83
-14.
81-1
0.57
-9.0
132
.61
11.8
87.
195.
915.
183.
471.
651.
723.
36-1
2.78
8.76
4.02
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
……
106.
111
7.3
117.
711
8.0
118.
411
9.9
121.
312
1.6
122.
012
2.3
122.
712
3.2
121.
211
5.5
119.
412
2.2
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-40.
9449
.04
1.41
0.94
1.38
5.27
4.82
1.02
1.17
1.12
1.34
1.62
2.36
-4.6
83.
322.
33%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-1
2.46
-3.5
4-3
.12
-2.5
711
.52
2.24
3.08
3.10
3.05
2.02
1.16
1.31
2.36
-4.6
83.
322.
33
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…42
8.2
424.
342
6.2
427.
142
9.1
430.
543
2.0
433.
343
4.3
435.
443
6.4
437.
443
7.8
429.
342
9.7
434.
8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-9
.01
-3.5
91.
750.
851.
871.
361.
431.
160.
901.
000.
960.
940.
41-1
.93
0.09
1.20
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-2.0
8-3
.08
-2.7
9-2
.60
0.19
1.46
1.38
1.46
1.21
1.12
1.01
0.95
0.41
-1.9
30.
091.
20
FED
ERAL
, CIV
ILIA
N…
……
……
……
……
…50
.354
.051
.650
.350
.350
.450
.450
.550
.550
.650
.650
.650
.151
.550
.450
.6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…0.
0032
.86
-16.
12-1
0.15
0.42
0.51
0.31
0.56
0.22
0.27
0.34
0.14
1.95
2.90
-2.2
80.
38%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
607.
012.
610.
030.
14-6
.61
-2.3
40.
450.
400.
340.
350.
241.
952.
90-2
.28
0.38
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
…37
8.0
370.
437
4.5
376.
837
8.7
380.
138
1.6
382.
838
3.7
384.
838
5.8
386.
838
7.7
377.
837
9.3
384.
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-1
0.13
-7.8
04.
572.
442.
061.
481.
581.
240.
991.
101.
041.
040.
21-2
.55
0.41
1.31
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-2.4
3-4
.40
-3.4
9-2
.94
0.20
2.63
1.89
1.59
1.32
1.23
1.09
1.04
0.21
-2.5
50.
411.
31
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
12 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 9:
Ten
ness
ee D
urab
le G
oods
Man
ufac
turin
g Em
ploy
men
t, Se
ason
ally
Adj
uste
d (th
ousa
nds
of jo
bs)
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
TOTA
L D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
190.
620
4.3
206.
620
7.4
207.
820
8.3
209.
320
9.8
210.
121
0.4
210.
821
1.2
227.
420
6.4
208.
221
0.3
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
…-4
7.48
31.9
44.
561.
480.
910.
971.
761.
060.
650.
480.
830.
691.
48-9
.25
0.88
1.01
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…-1
6.75
-10.
44-7
.99
-7.4
09.
021.
971.
281.
171.
110.
990.
760.
661.
48-9
.25
0.88
1.01
WO
OD
PR
OD
UC
TS…
……
……
……
……
…12
.713
.213
.313
.313
.213
.012
.912
.712
.712
.612
.512
.612
.512
.913
.112
.6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
5.83
16.5
04.
50-1
.53
-3.1
6-5
.43
-4.1
1-3
.53
-2.3
4-2
.37
-1.4
00.
340.
203.
081.
12-3
.36
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…1.
334.
655.
976.
133.
80-1
.47
-3.5
7-4
.06
-3.8
6-3
.09
-2.4
1-1
.45
0.20
3.08
1.12
-3.3
6
NO
NM
ETAL
LIC
MIN
ERAL
S……
……
……
13.8
14.4
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.7
14.8
14.8
14.8
14.9
14.9
14.3
14.3
14.6
14.8
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
…-9
.71
18.5
73.
76-0
.43
0.35
1.74
2.00
1.61
0.82
0.75
0.87
1.00
0.52
-0.1
52.
491.
32%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
-3.7
21.
182.
432.
555.
301.
340.
911.
421.
541.
291.
010.
860.
52-0
.15
2.49
1.32
PRIM
ARY
MET
ALS…
……
….…
……
……
…11
.612
.112
.212
.112
.011
.911
.811
.711
.611
.611
.511
.511
.311
.812
.011
.6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
14.7
218
.94
4.88
-3.3
5-3
.16
-3.1
4-3
.53
-3.0
8-3
.74
-2.1
0-1
.39
-2.3
32.
723.
821.
80-3
.08
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…1.
796.
698.
278.
453.
95-1
.25
-3.3
0-3
.23
-3.3
7-3
.11
-2.5
8-2
.39
2.72
3.82
1.80
-3.0
8
FABR
ICAT
ED M
ETAL
S……
……
……
…..
37.0
38.3
38.4
37.9
37.9
37.8
37.7
37.7
37.6
37.5
37.4
37.3
38.0
37.8
37.8
37.5
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
…-4
.06
14.6
51.
07-4
.89
-0.9
6-1
.07
-0.5
4-0
.50
-0.9
7-0
.75
-0.8
8-1
.22
3.78
-0.5
20.
04-0
.75
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…-2
.86
0.81
1.43
1.40
2.21
-1.4
9-1
.88
-0.7
7-0
.77
-0.6
9-0
.78
-0.9
63.
78-0
.52
0.04
-0.7
5
MAC
HIN
ERY…
……
……
……
……
……
……
25.4
26.6
26.2
26.0
26.0
26.0
26.0
26.1
26.1
26.1
26.1
26.2
26.6
26.0
26.0
26.1
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
…-9
.22
21.0
6-5
.52
-3.7
40.
070.
010.
570.
590.
440.
410.
260.
392.
88-1
.98
-0.2
00.
41%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
-4.7
90.
380.
07-0
.01
2.45
-2.3
3-0
.79
0.31
0.40
0.50
0.42
0.37
2.88
-1.9
8-0
.20
0.41
CO
MPU
TER
S &
ELEC
TRO
NIC
S……
……
5.6
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.7
5.9
5.7
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
…7.
5813
.15
2.08
1.45
1.86
1.07
-2.8
5-1
.61
-3.3
0-3
.11
-2.6
90.
127.
970.
543.
07-1
.87
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…-1
.74
2.94
3.98
5.96
4.52
1.61
0.36
-0.4
0-1
.69
-2.7
2-2
.68
-2.2
57.
970.
543.
07-1
.87
ELEC
TRIC
AL E
QU
IPM
ENT,
APP
LIAN
CES
& C
OM
PON
ENTS
……
……
..……
……
……
17.5
917
.84
17.5
317
.45
17.3
517
.24
17.1
617
.08
17.0
116
.92
16.8
216
.75
17.5
717
.62
17.3
016
.96
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
…1.
725.
79-6
.67
-1.8
0-2
.41
-2.4
9-1
.66
-2.0
0-1
.65
-2.0
7-2
.21
-1.7
7-5
.85
0.29
-1.8
0-1
.98
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…-0
.19
1.86
1.19
-0.3
5-1
.37
-3.3
6-2
.09
-2.1
4-1
.95
-1.8
5-1
.98
-1.9
3-5
.85
0.29
-1.8
0-1
.98
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N E
QU
IP…
……
……
…40
.55
48.5
651
.35
53.2
854
.42
55.4
456
.71
57.3
957
.99
58.5
259
.16
59.6
975
.13
53.3
854
.96
58.2
6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
-90.
5110
5.58
25.0
715
.91
8.83
7.74
9.43
4.91
4.23
3.75
4.41
3.66
1.48
-28.
952.
966.
01%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
-46.
94-3
5.98
-29.
54-2
7.08
34.2
014
.18
10.4
37.
716.
565.
564.
324.
011.
48-2
8.95
2.96
6.01
FUR
NIT
UR
E……
……
……
……
……
……
…9.
6010
.19
10.0
09.
869.
669.
619.
529.
639.
729.
769.
829.
869.
709.
909.
669.
74%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
-8.7
726
.55
-6.9
9-5
.51
-7.7
8-2
.37
-3.6
94.
973.
851.
532.
611.
340.
972.
11-2
.44
0.76
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…-0
.33
4.79
1.87
0.36
0.63
-5.6
8-4
.86
-2.3
20.
621.
613.
232.
330.
972.
11-2
.44
0.76
MIS
CEL
LAN
EOU
S D
UR
ABLE
S……
……
…16
.79
17.3
217
.12
17.0
516
.93
16.8
816
.92
16.9
316
.93
16.8
916
.88
16.8
616
.64
16.9
916
.95
16.9
1%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
1.30
13.1
6-4
.49
-1.6
7-2
.70
-1.2
30.
800.
44-0
.20
-0.7
6-0
.22
-0.5
21.
632.
13-0
.28
-0.2
1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
1.24
3.50
2.29
1.86
0.84
-2.5
3-1
.21
-0.6
8-0
.05
0.07
-0.1
9-0
.43
1.63
2.13
-0.2
8-0
.21
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 13
Tabl
e 10
: Te
nnes
see
Non
dura
ble
Goo
ds M
anuf
actu
ring
Empl
oym
ent,
Seas
onal
ly A
djus
ted
(thou
sand
s of
jobs
)
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
TOTA
L N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
…11
6.0
120.
012
0.8
121.
212
1.8
122.
812
3.5
123.
912
4.2
124.
512
4.7
124.
912
7.7
121.
412
2.3
124.
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
-34.
5214
.25
2.72
1.28
1.96
3.43
2.39
1.25
0.98
0.95
0.60
0.81
1.02
-4.8
70.
701.
65%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-9.1
1-6
.05
-5.9
0-6
.07
4.92
2.34
2.26
2.26
2.01
1.39
0.95
0.84
1.02
-4.8
70.
701.
65
FOO
D…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…33
.533
.233
.233
.534
.034
.334
.534
.734
.834
.935
.035
.135
.934
.034
.134
.8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
-26.
43-3
.39
0.85
3.09
5.68
4.09
2.78
2.05
1.09
0.97
0.86
1.02
0.53
-5.2
00.
222.
26%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-6.8
2-7
.82
-7.9
2-7
.28
1.50
3.41
3.90
3.64
2.50
1.72
1.24
0.98
0.53
-5.2
00.
222.
26
BEVE
RAG
E &
TOBA
CC
O…
……
……
……
……
7.1
7.2
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.7
7.7
7.7
7.8
7.4
7.4
7.5
7.7
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-3
1.13
6.35
12.5
00.
871.
094.
643.
491.
530.
941.
340.
871.
352.
530.
231.
802.
07%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-2.7
2-3
.09
-2.4
5-4
.52
5.10
4.67
2.51
2.68
2.64
1.82
1.17
1.12
2.53
0.23
1.80
2.07
PAPE
R…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
12.6
12.6
12.6
12.6
12.7
12.7
12.7
12.6
12.6
12.5
12.5
12.5
12.6
12.6
12.7
12.6
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-5
.73
-0.9
01.
090.
640.
900.
71-0
.90
-1.0
4-1
.21
-1.6
3-1
.33
-0.8
14.
130.
410.
08-0
.80
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…1.
16-1
.11
-1.7
1-1
.26
0.43
0.83
0.33
-0.0
9-0
.61
-1.2
0-1
.30
-1.2
54.
130.
410.
08-0
.80
PRIN
TIN
G &
REL
ATED
SU
PPO
RT…
……
……
7.0
7.0
6.9
6.9
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.7
6.7
8.9
7.4
6.9
6.7
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-5
9.62
0.33
-2.5
8-1
.94
-1.7
6-1
.61
-1.5
6-1
.25
-1.2
6-2
.43
-1.6
7-1
.13
-0.7
3-1
6.75
-7.4
6-1
.56
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-2
2.05
-21.
74-2
1.40
-21.
13-1
.49
-1.9
7-1
.72
-1.5
5-1
.42
-1.6
3-1
.65
-1.6
2-0
.73
-16.
75-7
.46
-1.5
6
CH
EMIC
ALS…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
25.8
25.8
25.9
25.9
26.0
26.1
26.1
26.2
26.2
26.3
26.4
26.4
25.9
25.9
26.0
26.3
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-5
.04
0.66
0.91
0.41
0.67
1.15
0.99
0.99
1.04
0.97
0.93
1.13
1.53
-0.0
60.
360.
99%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-0.5
1-0
.36
-0.6
3-0
.80
0.66
0.78
0.80
0.95
1.04
1.00
0.98
1.02
1.53
-0.0
60.
360.
99
PLAS
TIC
S &
RU
BBER
……
……
……
……
……
19.7
21.7
22.0
22.1
22.1
22.5
22.8
22.9
23.0
23.2
23.3
23.3
24.8
22.0
22.4
23.1
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-5
7.86
49.5
65.
431.
040.
037.
725.
192.
232.
272.
860.
931.
00-0
.03
-11.
561.
873.
31%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-21.
30-1
2.07
-10.
25-9
.48
12.3
63.
513.
453.
754.
333.
132.
071.
76-0
.03
-11.
561.
873.
31
MIS
CEL
LAN
EOU
S N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
10.4
12.4
12.6
12.6
12.7
12.8
13.0
13.0
13.0
13.1
13.1
13.2
12.1
12.1
12.8
13.1
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-5
8.39
102.
406.
081.
411.
923.
824.
171.
391.
661.
581.
501.
530.
83-0
.34
5.67
2.32
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-1
4.07
4.04
2.15
-2.4
422
.05
3.29
2.82
2.82
2.75
2.19
1.53
1.57
0.83
-0.3
45.
672.
32
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
14 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 11
: Te
nnes
see
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
and
Sala
ry R
ate
by S
ecto
r, N
ot S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (2
012
dolla
rs)
2020
:120
20:2
2020
:320
20:4
2021
:120
21:2
2021
:320
21:4
2022
:120
22:2
2022
:320
22:4
2019
2020
2021
2022
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
4795
348
622
4817
847
495
4822
347
887
4801
747
430
4840
448
271
4859
748
175
4736
748
062
4788
948
362
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.06
2.26
1.71
1.85
0.56
-1.5
1-0
.33
-0.1
40.
370.
801.
211.
570.
861.
47-0
.36
0.99
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
, MIN
ING
AN
D C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N…
……
……
……
……
5726
253
872
5450
055
178
5637
155
224
5470
155
004
5630
755
350
5495
955
331
5492
855
203
5532
555
487
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.01
-1.4
61.
342.
17-1
.56
2.51
0.37
-0.3
2-0
.11
0.23
0.47
0.60
1.82
0.50
0.22
0.29
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G…
……
……
……
……
……
5530
457
340
5685
357
428
5771
157
685
5742
657
483
5783
657
993
5797
858
206
5493
456
731
5757
658
004
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-0.0
74.
414.
154.
644.
350.
601.
010.
100.
220.
540.
961.
26-0
.31
3.27
1.49
0.74
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
…56
504
5846
357
958
5853
258
754
5875
758
492
5858
858
884
5907
059
065
5934
555
334
5786
458
648
5909
1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
236.
375.
555.
193.
980.
500.
920.
100.
220.
530.
981.
29-0
.26
4.57
1.35
0.76
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
5321
855
492
5497
055
559
5594
955
889
5565
255
652
5609
756
211
5618
356
329
5422
454
810
5578
556
205
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-2.3
41.
191.
773.
755.
130.
721.
240.
170.
270.
580.
951.
22-0
.40
1.08
1.78
0.75
TRAD
E, T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, U
TILI
TIES
……
4320
042
478
4238
241
665
4266
642
474
4266
241
945
4303
242
889
4305
942
374
4337
442
431
4243
742
838
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-2.4
7-3
.87
-1.8
6-0
.39
-1.2
4-0
.01
0.66
0.67
0.86
0.98
0.93
1.02
0.18
-2.1
70.
010.
95W
HO
LESA
LE T
RAD
E……
……
……
……
…69
550
6990
569
579
6953
670
243
7010
669
939
6979
870
528
7043
070
334
7026
367
940
6964
270
022
7038
9%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
841.
642.
555.
101.
000.
290.
520.
380.
410.
460.
560.
670.
802.
510.
540.
52R
ETAI
L TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
……
…28
811
2801
228
506
2791
628
660
2841
328
536
2793
928
721
2849
028
636
2802
729
356
2831
228
387
2846
9%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-4
.57
-6.1
3-3
.04
-0.2
7-0
.53
1.43
0.10
0.08
0.21
0.27
0.35
0.32
-1.0
0-3
.56
0.27
0.29
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N &
UTI
LITI
ES…
……
…52
236
5081
850
613
4937
950
667
5064
150
638
4952
350
945
5096
751
037
5001
252
843
5076
250
367
5074
0%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-3
.29
-6.2
1-2
.42
-3.7
6-3
.00
-0.3
50.
050.
290.
550.
640.
790.
99-0
.77
-3.9
4-0
.78
0.74
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
6833
669
432
6887
668
443
6919
968
148
6846
867
888
6875
167
893
6842
467
967
6822
768
772
6842
668
258
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.96
3.58
-0.8
7-0
.39
1.26
-1.8
5-0
.59
-0.8
1-0
.65
-0.3
7-0
.06
0.12
0.65
0.80
-0.5
0-0
.24
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
7050
573
306
7184
771
772
7161
971
083
7082
970
979
7154
071
665
7189
872
518
6882
471
857
7112
771
905
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.77
6.25
6.48
4.23
1.58
-3.0
3-1
.42
-1.1
1-0
.11
0.82
1.51
2.17
1.71
4.41
-1.0
21.
09PR
OFE
SSIO
NAL
& B
USI
NES
S SE
RVI
CES
…58
583
6124
559
894
5909
060
828
6031
960
007
5922
461
448
6140
061
601
6127
657
572
5970
360
095
6143
1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
786.
303.
684.
073.
83-1
.51
0.19
0.23
1.02
1.79
2.66
3.46
3.20
3.70
0.66
2.22
EDU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
4787
748
100
4821
047
400
4794
648
049
4822
447
421
4807
748
361
4871
448
027
4749
947
897
4791
048
295
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.68
0.54
1.20
0.93
0.14
-0.1
10.
030.
040.
270.
651.
021.
280.
460.
840.
030.
80LE
ISU
RE
& H
OSP
ITAL
ITY…
……
……
……
…25
456
2098
921
047
2173
722
312
2120
721
464
2230
522
914
2176
221
847
2250
624
332
2230
721
822
2225
7%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
83-1
3.19
-12.
52-8
.85
-12.
351.
041.
982.
612.
702.
621.
790.
90-0
.82
-8.3
2-2
.18
1.99
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
…44
248
4415
543
788
4408
444
185
4316
843
438
4380
344
280
4360
143
940
4439
242
012
4406
943
648
4405
3%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…4.
226.
096.
452.
93-0
.14
-2.2
4-0
.80
-0.6
40.
221.
001.
161.
340.
764.
90-0
.95
0.93
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
4375
744
074
4574
843
052
4345
644
534
4549
542
971
4353
044
645
4567
443
151
4394
044
158
4411
444
250
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.29
-0.2
50.
540.
42-0
.69
1.04
-0.5
5-0
.19
0.17
0.25
0.39
0.42
0.87
0.50
-0.1
00.
31FE
DER
AL, C
IVIL
IAN
……
……
……
……
……
7485
675
607
7566
475
937
7665
776
691
7682
276
790
7743
077
404
7753
777
468
7463
275
516
7674
077
459
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-0.7
11.
131.
942.
412.
401.
431.
531.
121.
010.
930.
930.
88-1
.76
1.18
1.62
0.94
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
3980
939
835
4122
838
644
3911
540
214
4120
838
619
3914
640
284
4135
238
768
3997
239
879
3978
939
888
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.69
-0.9
0-0
.95
-0.7
1-1
.74
0.95
-0.0
5-0
.06
0.08
0.18
0.35
0.39
1.35
-0.2
3-0
.23
0.25
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0H
isto
ryFo
reca
st D
ata
Annu
al
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars)
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 15
Tabl
e 12
: Te
nnes
see
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
and
Sala
ry R
ate
by S
ecto
r, Se
ason
ally
Adj
uste
d (2
012
dolla
rs)
2020
:120
20:2
2020
:320
20:4
2021
:120
21:2
2021
:320
21:4
2022
:120
22:2
2022
:320
22:4
2019
2020
2021
2022
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…47
644
4859
448
052
4798
447
917
4788
947
904
4791
548
091
4827
748
487
4866
847
349
4806
847
906
4838
0%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…4.
638.
23-4
.39
-0.5
6-0
.56
-0.2
30.
130.
091.
471.
561.
751.
500.
831.
52-0
.34
0.99
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.28
2.27
1.67
1.86
0.57
-1.4
5-0
.31
-0.1
40.
360.
811.
221.
570.
831.
52-0
.34
0.99
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
, MIN
ING
AN
D C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N…
……
……
……
……
…56
232
5389
955
014
5539
855
357
5525
255
218
5522
255
293
5537
855
477
5555
154
943
5513
655
262
5542
5%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…15
.68
-15.
598.
542.
82-0
.29
-0.7
5-0
.25
0.03
0.51
0.62
0.72
0.53
1.93
0.35
0.23
0.29
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.19
-2.4
30.
512.
17-1
.56
2.51
0.37
-0.3
2-0
.11
0.23
0.47
0.60
1.93
0.35
0.23
0.29
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G…
……
……
……
……
……
…55
218
5726
056
987
5750
257
591
5759
657
558
5756
057
721
5790
058
108
5828
754
935
5674
257
576
5800
4%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…1.
7415
.63
-1.8
93.
660.
630.
03-0
.27
0.01
1.12
1.25
1.45
1.23
-0.3
13.
291.
470.
74%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-0
.08
4.47
4.21
4.58
4.30
0.59
1.00
0.10
0.22
0.53
0.96
1.26
-0.3
13.
291.
470.
74
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
5645
758
398
5810
258
568
5865
758
676
5863
558
629
5879
458
981
5920
459
389
5533
657
881
5864
959
092
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
5.38
14.4
7-2
.01
3.25
0.61
0.13
-0.2
8-0
.04
1.13
1.28
1.52
1.25
-0.2
64.
601.
330.
76%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
226.
475.
645.
113.
900.
480.
920.
100.
230.
520.
971.
30-0
.26
4.60
1.33
0.76
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…53
068
5539
255
089
5569
355
793
5578
855
766
5578
655
941
5610
956
297
5646
654
225
5481
055
783
5620
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-4
.51
18.7
0-2
.17
4.46
0.72
-0.0
4-0
.15
0.14
1.12
1.21
1.35
1.20
-0.4
01.
081.
780.
75%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-2
.34
1.18
1.77
3.74
5.14
0.71
1.23
0.17
0.27
0.58
0.95
1.22
-0.4
01.
081.
780.
75
TRAD
E, T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, U
TILI
TIES
……
4284
542
368
4222
442
297
4231
542
364
4250
342
581
4267
842
778
4289
843
017
4332
042
433
4244
142
843
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
3.63
-4.3
8-1
.36
0.70
0.17
0.46
1.32
0.74
0.91
0.94
1.13
1.11
0.06
-2.0
50.
020.
95%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-2
.29
-3.5
5-1
.90
-0.3
9-1
.24
-0.0
10.
660.
670.
860.
980.
931.
020.
06-2
.05
0.02
0.95
WH
OLE
SALE
TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
…69
225
6978
469
678
6984
269
915
6998
570
039
7010
570
199
7030
870
435
7057
267
979
6963
270
011
7037
8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…17
.76
3.27
-0.6
10.
940.
420.
400.
310.
380.
530.
630.
720.
780.
832.
430.
540.
52%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
701.
442.
585.
101.
000.
290.
520.
380.
410.
460.
560.
670.
832.
430.
540.
52
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
2851
427
972
2834
628
375
2836
428
372
2837
528
398
2842
428
449
2847
528
488
2931
828
302
2837
728
459
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
0.87
-7.3
95.
460.
41-0
.16
0.12
0.04
0.32
0.37
0.35
0.37
0.18
-1.1
5-3
.46
0.27
0.29
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-4.4
4-5
.90
-3.1
0-0
.27
-0.5
31.
430.
100.
080.
210.
270.
350.
32-1
.15
-3.4
60.
270.
29
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N &
UTI
LITI
ES…
……
…51
886
5055
450
436
5036
050
327
5037
750
461
5050
750
604
5070
250
858
5100
552
714
5080
950
418
5079
2%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-3
.34
-9.8
8-0
.93
-0.6
0-0
.26
0.40
0.67
0.37
0.77
0.78
1.24
1.16
-0.9
6-3
.61
-0.7
70.
74%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-2
.78
-5.4
3-2
.45
-3.7
6-3
.00
-0.3
50.
050.
290.
550.
640.
790.
99-0
.96
-3.6
1-0
.77
0.74
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…67
840
6981
368
769
6883
768
697
6852
268
362
6827
968
252
6826
568
318
6835
868
172
6881
568
465
6829
8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-7
.13
12.1
5-5
.85
0.39
-0.8
1-1
.02
-0.9
3-0
.48
-0.1
60.
080.
310.
230.
460.
94-0
.51
-0.2
4%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
213.
69-0
.66
-0.3
91.
26-1
.85
-0.5
9-0
.81
-0.6
5-0
.37
-0.0
60.
120.
460.
94-0
.51
-0.2
4
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
…70
236
7336
372
026
7174
471
346
7113
871
005
7095
171
267
7172
072
077
7249
068
776
7184
271
110
7188
9%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…8.
4019
.03
-7.0
9-1
.55
-2.2
0-1
.16
-0.7
5-0
.30
1.79
2.57
2.01
2.31
1.63
4.46
-1.0
21.
09%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
996.
346.
334.
231.
58-3
.03
-1.4
2-1
.11
-0.1
10.
821.
512.
171.
634.
46-1
.02
1.09
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
(CO
NTI
NU
ED O
N N
EXT
PAG
E)
Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars)
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
16 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 12
: Te
nnes
see
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
and
Sala
ry R
ate
by S
ecto
r, Se
ason
ally
Adj
uste
d (2
012
dolla
rs)
2020
:120
20:2
2020
:320
20:4
2021
:120
21:2
2021
:320
21:4
2022
:120
22:2
2022
:320
22:4
2019
2020
2021
2022
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
PRO
FESS
ION
AL &
BU
SIN
ESS
SER
VIC
ES…
5783
860
988
5999
260
013
6005
460
066
6010
660
149
6066
661
142
6170
262
233
5754
159
708
6009
461
436
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
1.21
23.6
3-6
.37
0.14
0.27
0.08
0.27
0.29
3.48
3.18
3.72
3.48
3.15
3.77
0.65
2.23
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.05
6.16
3.78
4.07
3.83
-1.5
10.
190.
231.
021.
792.
663.
463.
153.
770.
652.
23
EDU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
4786
047
970
4790
947
909
4792
847
919
4792
247
930
4805
948
231
4841
048
543
4752
847
912
4792
548
311
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
3.36
0.93
-0.5
10.
000.
17-0
.08
0.03
0.06
1.09
1.43
1.49
1.11
0.53
0.81
0.03
0.80
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.61
0.57
1.12
0.93
0.14
-0.1
10.
030.
040.
270.
651.
021.
280.
530.
810.
030.
80
LEIS
UR
E &
HO
SPIT
ALIT
Y……
……
……
……
…24
711
2150
621
527
2161
121
659
2172
921
954
2217
622
243
2229
822
346
2237
524
328
2233
921
879
2231
5%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…18
.02
-42.
630.
401.
570.
891.
314.
194.
111.
220.
990.
870.
53-0
.80
-8.1
8-2
.06
1.99
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.42
-12.
80-1
2.41
-8.8
5-1
2.35
1.04
1.98
2.61
2.70
2.62
1.79
0.90
-0.8
0-8
.18
-2.0
61.
99
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
……
4379
744
558
4401
244
023
4373
543
561
4366
043
743
4382
943
998
4416
544
331
4201
344
097
4367
544
081
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
9.94
7.13
-4.8
10.
10-2
.60
-1.5
80.
910.
760.
791.
551.
521.
510.
774.
96-0
.96
0.93
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
4.28
6.26
6.44
2.93
-0.1
4-2
.24
-0.8
0-0
.64
0.22
1.00
1.16
1.34
0.77
4.96
-0.9
60.
93
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…44
383
4363
244
328
4419
144
077
4408
744
083
4410
844
152
4419
744
256
4429
343
865
4413
344
089
4422
4%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…3.
47-6
.60
6.54
-1.2
3-1
.03
0.09
-0.0
30.
220.
400.
400.
540.
330.
810.
61-0
.10
0.31
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.50
-0.2
00.
720.
42-0
.69
1.04
-0.5
5-0
.19
0.17
0.25
0.39
0.42
0.81
0.61
-0.1
00.
31
FED
ERAL
, CIV
ILIA
N…
……
……
……
……
…74
608
7555
675
664
7613
876
402
7664
076
822
7699
477
173
7735
377
537
7767
374
618
7549
276
715
7743
4%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…1.
415.
180.
572.
531.
401.
250.
950.
900.
930.
940.
950.
70-1
.80
1.17
1.62
0.94
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-0.9
11.
202.
012.
412.
401.
431.
531.
121.
010.
930.
930.
88-1
.80
1.17
1.62
0.94
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
…40
469
3938
639
762
3978
639
763
3976
039
742
3976
139
795
3983
039
882
3991
339
893
3985
139
757
3985
5%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…4.
04-1
0.29
3.88
0.24
-0.2
3-0
.03
-0.1
80.
190.
340.
350.
530.
311.
28-0
.11
-0.2
40.
25%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
97-0
.86
-0.8
1-0
.71
-1.7
40.
95-0
.05
-0.0
60.
080.
180.
350.
381.
28-0
.11
-0.2
40.
25
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
elB
oyd
Cen
ter f
or B
usin
ess
and
Econ
omic
Res
earc
h, U
nive
rsity
of T
enne
ssee
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 17
Tabl
e 13
: Te
nnes
see
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
and
Sala
ry R
ate
by S
ecto
r, N
ot S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (c
urre
nt d
olla
rs)
2020
:120
20:2
2020
:320
20:4
2021
:120
21:2
2021
:320
21:4
2022
:120
22:2
2022
:320
22:4
2019
2020
2021
2022
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
5317
153
696
5375
053
200
5432
554
231
5467
354
279
5564
755
730
5632
756
080
5203
153
454
5437
755
946
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.75
2.92
3.06
3.22
2.17
1.00
1.72
2.03
2.43
2.76
3.03
3.32
2.36
2.73
1.73
2.89
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
, MIN
ING
AN
D C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N…
……
……
……
……
6349
459
493
6080
361
806
6350
462
540
6228
462
946
6473
263
903
6370
164
411
6033
261
399
6281
964
187
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.70
-0.8
32.
683.
540.
025.
122.
441.
841.
932.
182.
272.
333.
331.
772.
312.
18M
ANU
FAC
TUR
ING
……
……
……
……
……
…61
323
6332
363
428
6432
665
013
6532
765
386
6578
366
491
6695
567
201
6775
760
344
6310
065
377
6710
1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
615.
095.
526.
046.
023.
163.
092.
272.
272.
492.
783.
001.
174.
573.
612.
64D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
……
6265
264
564
6466
065
562
6618
966
541
6660
067
048
6769
668
198
6846
069
082
6078
564
360
6659
568
359
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
2.94
7.06
6.94
6.60
5.64
3.06
3.00
2.27
2.28
2.49
2.79
3.03
1.23
5.88
3.47
2.65
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
5900
961
282
6132
762
232
6302
863
293
6336
763
688
6449
164
896
6511
965
572
5956
460
963
6334
465
020
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-0.6
91.
843.
125.
146.
813.
283.
332.
342.
322.
532.
772.
961.
082.
353.
912.
65TR
ADE,
TR
ANSP
OR
TATI
ON
, UTI
LITI
ES…
…47
901
4691
147
283
4666
948
065
4810
148
576
4800
249
471
4951
649
908
4932
747
642
4719
148
186
4955
6%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-0
.83
-3.2
4-0
.56
0.94
0.34
2.54
2.73
2.86
2.93
2.94
2.74
2.76
1.67
-0.9
52.
112.
84W
HO
LESA
LE T
RAD
E……
……
……
……
…77
118
7720
077
626
7788
879
131
7939
379
634
7987
781
082
8131
381
522
8179
274
628
7745
879
509
8142
7%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
542.
303.
906.
512.
612.
842.
592.
552.
462.
422.
372.
402.
303.
792.
652.
41R
ETAI
L TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
……
…31
946
3093
531
803
3126
932
286
3217
732
491
3197
333
019
3289
333
191
3262
632
244
3148
932
232
3293
2%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-2
.96
-5.5
3-1
.75
1.07
1.06
4.01
2.16
2.25
2.27
2.22
2.15
2.04
0.46
-2.3
42.
362.
17TR
ANSP
OR
TATI
ON
& U
TILI
TIES
……
……
5792
156
121
5646
755
310
5707
857
350
5765
856
674
5856
958
843
5915
558
218
5804
356
455
5719
058
696
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-1.6
6-5
.60
-1.1
3-2
.47
-1.4
52.
192.
112.
472.
612.
602.
602.
720.
71-2
.74
1.30
2.63
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
7577
376
678
7684
176
664
7795
577
176
7795
977
691
7903
878
383
7930
879
119
7495
276
489
7769
578
962
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
2.66
4.25
0.44
0.95
2.88
0.65
1.45
1.34
1.39
1.56
1.73
1.84
2.17
2.05
1.58
1.63
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
7817
780
956
8015
780
393
8068
180
501
8064
781
228
8224
582
739
8333
584
418
7560
179
920
8076
483
184
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
2.47
6.94
7.89
5.63
3.20
-0.5
60.
611.
041.
942.
783.
333.
933.
215.
711.
063.
00PR
OFE
SSIO
NAL
& B
USI
NES
S SE
RVI
CES
…64
958
6763
666
820
6618
868
524
6831
068
325
6777
670
643
7088
871
400
7133
163
241
6640
168
234
7106
5%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
486.
995.
055.
475.
491.
002.
252.
403.
093.
774.
505.
244.
745.
002.
764.
15ED
UC
ATIO
N &
HEA
LTH
SER
VIC
ES…
……
…53
087
5311
953
786
5309
354
013
5441
554
908
5426
855
271
5583
456
463
5590
852
177
5327
154
401
5586
9%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
371.
192.
542.
291.
742.
442.
092.
212.
332.
612.
833.
021.
952.
102.
122.
70LE
ISU
RE
& H
OSP
ITAL
ITY…
……
……
……
…28
227
2317
923
481
2434
825
135
2401
724
439
2552
626
343
2512
525
322
2619
926
727
2480
924
779
2574
7%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
53-1
2.63
-11.
36-7
.63
-10.
953.
614.
084.
844.
804.
613.
612.
640.
65-7
.18
-0.1
23.
91O
THER
SER
VIC
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
4906
348
763
4885
249
379
4977
548
887
4945
950
128
5090
650
339
5093
051
676
4615
049
014
4956
250
963
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
5.97
6.77
7.85
4.31
1.45
0.25
1.24
1.52
2.27
2.97
2.97
3.09
2.26
6.21
1.12
2.82
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
4851
948
673
5103
848
223
4895
450
434
5180
149
176
5004
451
544
5293
950
232
4826
949
113
5009
151
189
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
2.99
0.40
1.87
1.77
0.90
3.62
1.49
1.98
2.22
2.20
2.20
2.15
2.38
1.75
1.99
2.19
FED
ERAL
, CIV
ILIA
N…
……
……
……
……
…83
002
8349
684
415
8505
886
356
8685
187
471
8787
989
016
8936
589
870
9017
981
981
8399
387
139
8960
7%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
971.
783.
293.
784.
044.
023.
623.
323.
082.
892.
742.
62-0
.30
2.45
3.75
2.83
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
4414
143
992
4599
643
285
4406
445
541
4692
044
196
4500
446
509
4793
045
129
4391
044
354
4518
046
143
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
3.41
-0.2
60.
360.
62-0
.17
3.52
2.01
2.10
2.13
2.13
2.15
2.11
2.86
1.01
1.86
2.13
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Dec
embe
r 202
0H
isto
ryFo
reca
st D
ata
Annu
al
Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
18 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 14
: Te
nnes
see
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
and
Sala
ry R
ate
by S
ecto
r, Se
ason
ally
Adj
uste
d (c
urre
nt d
olla
rs)
2020
:120
20:2
2020
:320
20:4
2021
:120
21:2
2021
:320
21:4
2022
:120
22:2
2022
:320
22:4
2023
:120
1920
2020
2120
22
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…52
828
5366
553
609
5374
853
980
5423
354
545
5483
455
287
5573
756
199
5665
457
107
5201
253
463
5439
855
969
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
5.97
6.49
-0.4
21.
041.
741.
892.
322.
143.
343.
293.
363.
283.
242.
332.
791.
752.
89%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
972.
933.
023.
232.
181.
061.
752.
022.
422.
773.
033.
323.
292.
332.
791.
752.
89
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
, MIN
ING
AN
D C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N…
……
……
……
……
…62
351
5952
361
377
6205
262
361
6257
262
872
6319
663
567
6393
664
302
6466
765
146
6035
361
326
6275
064
118
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
17.1
6-1
6.94
13.0
54.
472.
011.
361.
932.
082.
372.
342.
312.
293.
003.
441.
612.
322.
18%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
90-1
.80
1.84
3.54
0.02
5.12
2.44
1.84
1.93
2.18
2.27
2.33
2.48
3.44
1.61
2.32
2.18
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G…
……
……
……
……
……
…61
227
6323
563
578
6440
864
878
6522
665
536
6587
166
358
6684
667
351
6785
168
369
6034
763
112
6537
867
102
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
3.05
13.7
82.
185.
332.
952.
161.
912.
062.
992.
983.
053.
003.
091.
174.
583.
592.
64%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
605.
145.
595.
995.
963.
153.
082.
272.
282.
482.
773.
013.
031.
174.
583.
592.
64
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
6260
164
492
6482
165
603
6608
066
450
6676
367
095
6759
268
095
6862
269
134
6968
260
787
6437
966
597
6836
1%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…6.
7412
.64
2.06
4.91
2.94
2.26
1.90
2.00
3.00
3.01
3.13
3.02
3.21
1.23
5.91
3.44
2.65
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
2.93
7.16
7.04
6.52
5.56
3.04
3.00
2.27
2.29
2.48
2.78
3.04
3.09
1.23
5.91
3.44
2.65
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…58
842
6117
261
460
6238
262
853
6317
863
497
6384
164
312
6477
965
252
6573
166
201
5956
560
964
6334
265
019
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-3.2
916
.80
1.90
6.14
3.05
2.09
2.03
2.19
2.98
2.94
2.95
2.97
2.89
1.08
2.35
3.90
2.65
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-0.6
91.
833.
125.
136.
823.
283.
312.
342.
322.
532.
762.
962.
941.
082.
353.
902.
65
TRAD
E, T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, U
TILI
TIES
……
4750
746
789
4710
747
377
4767
047
976
4839
548
730
4906
449
388
4972
250
075
5042
547
585
4719
548
193
4956
2%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…4.
96-5
.91
2.74
2.32
2.49
2.60
3.54
2.80
2.77
2.67
2.73
2.87
2.82
1.54
-0.8
22.
112.
84%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-0
.64
-2.9
3-0
.60
0.94
0.34
2.54
2.73
2.86
2.93
2.94
2.74
2.76
2.77
1.54
-0.8
22.
112.
84
WH
OLE
SALE
TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
…76
758
7706
677
736
7823
178
762
7925
679
748
8022
880
703
8117
281
639
8215
282
677
7467
277
448
7949
981
416
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
19.2
71.
623.
522.
572.
742.
542.
502.
432.
392.
352.
322.
542.
582.
333.
722.
652.
41%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
402.
093.
946.
512.
612.
842.
592.
552.
462.
422.
372.
402.
452.
333.
722.
652.
41
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
3161
730
891
3162
431
783
3195
332
131
3230
932
499
3267
832
845
3300
533
163
3332
332
203
3147
932
223
3292
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…2.
17-8
.87
9.84
2.02
2.15
2.25
2.23
2.37
2.22
2.07
1.95
1.93
1.95
0.31
-2.2
52.
362.
17%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-2
.83
-5.2
9-1
.82
1.07
1.06
4.01
2.16
2.25
2.27
2.22
2.15
2.04
1.98
0.31
-2.2
52.
362.
17
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N &
UTI
LITI
ES…
……
…57
532
5582
956
269
5640
856
695
5705
157
456
5780
058
176
5853
658
948
5937
559
790
5790
456
510
5725
058
759
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-2.1
0-1
1.33
3.19
1.00
2.05
2.53
2.87
2.42
2.63
2.50
2.84
2.93
2.83
0.51
-2.4
11.
312.
63%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-1
.14
-4.8
2-1
.15
-2.4
7-1
.45
2.19
2.11
2.47
2.61
2.60
2.60
2.72
2.77
0.51
-2.4
11.
312.
63
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…75
223
7709
876
722
7710
577
389
7760
077
839
7813
978
465
7881
379
185
7957
579
979
7489
376
537
7774
279
010
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-5.9
410
.35
-1.9
42.
011.
481.
091.
241.
551.
681.
791.
901.
982.
051.
972.
201.
571.
63%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
924.
360.
650.
952.
880.
651.
451.
341.
391.
561.
731.
841.
931.
972.
201.
571.
63
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
…77
879
8101
880
356
8036
280
374
8056
380
848
8119
781
932
8280
283
542
8438
585
258
7555
079
904
8074
583
165
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
9.79
17.1
3-3
.23
0.03
0.06
0.95
1.42
1.74
3.67
4.32
3.62
4.10
4.20
3.13
5.76
1.05
3.00
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
2.70
7.02
7.74
5.63
3.20
-0.5
60.
611.
041.
942.
783.
333.
934.
063.
135.
761.
053.
00(C
ON
TIN
UED
ON
NEX
T PA
GE)
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 19
Tabl
e 14
: Te
nnes
see
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
and
Sala
ry R
ate
by S
ecto
r, Se
ason
ally
Adj
uste
d (c
urre
nt d
olla
rs)
2020
:120
20:2
2020
:320
20:4
2021
:120
21:2
2021
:320
21:4
2022
:120
22:2
2022
:320
22:4
2023
:120
1920
2020
2120
22
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
PRO
FESS
ION
AL &
BU
SIN
ESS
SER
VIC
ES…
6413
267
352
6693
067
221
6765
268
023
6843
868
835
6974
470
590
7151
772
445
7332
263
210
6640
968
237
7107
4%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…2.
5121
.65
-2.4
81.
752.
592.
212.
462.
345.
394.
945.
365.
294.
934.
695.
062.
754.
16%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
756.
845.
155.
475.
491.
002.
252.
403.
093.
774.
505.
245.
134.
695.
062.
754.
16
EDU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
5306
852
976
5345
053
663
5399
354
268
5456
554
850
5525
155
683
5611
056
508
5686
152
210
5328
954
419
5588
8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…4.
69-0
.69
3.63
1.61
2.48
2.05
2.21
2.11
2.95
3.17
3.10
2.87
2.52
2.03
2.07
2.12
2.70
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
2.31
1.22
2.46
2.29
1.74
2.44
2.09
2.21
2.33
2.61
2.83
3.02
2.91
2.03
2.07
2.12
2.70
LEIS
UR
E &
HO
SPIT
ALIT
Y……
……
……
……
…27
400
2375
024
017
2420
724
399
2460
824
997
2537
825
571
2574
325
900
2604
726
211
2672
424
843
2484
525
815
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
19.5
3-4
3.55
4.57
3.20
3.22
3.47
6.47
6.24
3.08
2.71
2.46
2.29
2.54
0.67
-7.0
40.
013.
90%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…3.
13-1
2.24
-11.
25-7
.63
-10.
953.
614.
084.
844.
804.
613.
612.
642.
500.
67-7
.04
0.01
3.90
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
……
4856
349
207
4910
249
311
4926
849
332
4971
350
059
5038
850
797
5119
051
605
5197
146
153
4904
649
593
5099
5%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…11
.35
5.41
-0.8
51.
71-0
.34
0.52
3.12
2.82
2.65
3.29
3.13
3.28
2.87
2.27
6.27
1.12
2.83
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
6.04
6.95
7.84
4.31
1.45
0.25
1.24
1.52
2.27
2.97
2.97
3.09
3.14
2.27
6.27
1.12
2.83
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…49
213
4818
549
455
4949
949
654
4992
850
194
5047
750
759
5102
651
296
5156
151
840
4818
749
088
5006
351
160
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
4.80
-8.1
010
.97
0.36
1.26
2.22
2.15
2.27
2.25
2.12
2.13
2.08
2.18
2.31
1.87
1.99
2.19
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
3.22
0.45
2.05
1.77
0.90
3.62
1.49
1.98
2.22
2.20
2.20
2.15
2.13
2.31
1.87
1.99
2.19
FED
ERAL
, CIV
ILIA
N…
……
……
……
……
…82
727
8344
184
415
8528
386
070
8679
387
471
8811
188
721
8930
689
870
9041
890
953
8196
783
966
8711
189
579
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
2.71
3.50
4.75
4.18
3.74
3.41
3.16
2.96
2.80
2.66
2.55
2.46
2.39
-0.3
42.
443.
752.
83%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
771.
853.
363.
784.
044.
023.
623.
323.
082.
892.
742.
622.
52-0
.34
2.44
3.75
2.83
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
…44
873
4349
644
361
4456
444
794
4502
845
251
4550
345
750
4598
546
226
4646
346
720
4382
444
323
4514
446
106
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
5.37
-11.
728.
201.
852.
082.
102.
002.
242.
192.
072.
122.
062.
232.
791.
141.
852.
13%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…3.
69-0
.22
0.51
0.62
-0.1
83.
522.
012.
102.
132.
122.
152.
112.
122.
791.
141.
852.
13
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
elB
oyd
Cen
ter f
or B
usin
ess
and
Econ
omic
Res
earc
h, U
nive
rsity
of T
enne
ssee
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
20 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 15
: Te
nnes
see
Civ
ilian
Lab
or F
orce
and
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate,
Not
Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
CIV
ILIA
N L
ABO
R F
OR
CE
(TH
OU
S)…
……
……
…32
3932
9032
8333
1833
5233
4633
5233
6834
0633
9734
0934
0833
4532
9233
4233
95%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-3.1
5-1
.96
-2.4
4-1
.12
3.48
1.71
2.09
1.50
1.61
1.51
1.70
1.19
2.78
-1.5
81.
521.
58
EMPL
OYE
D P
ERSO
NS
(TH
OU
S)…
……
……
2853
3017
3087
3115
3173
3175
3200
3207
3258
3247
3270
3252
3232
3048
3165
3246
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-1
1.76
-6.8
4-5
.29
-3.6
911
.21
5.21
3.64
2.97
2.70
2.29
2.20
1.39
2.92
-5.6
83.
852.
54
UN
EMPL
OYE
D P
ERSO
NS
(TH
OU
S)…
……
…38
627
319
620
317
917
215
216
014
715
013
915
611
324
417
714
9%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
248.
1813
2.89
85.0
767
.50
-53.
65-3
7.01
-22.
34-2
1.10
-17.
74-1
2.89
-8.8
1-2
.75
-0.9
011
5.31
-27.
65-1
5.60
PAR
TIC
IPAT
ION
RAT
E (P
ERC
ENT)
……
……
……
58.6
59.4
59.2
59.7
60.2
60.0
60.0
60.1
60.7
60.4
60.5
60.4
61.0
59.5
60.0
60.4
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-3
.96
-2.7
8-3
.25
-1.9
32.
640.
891.
270.
690.
810.
720.
910.
411.
90-2
.40
0.69
0.78
UN
EMPL
OYM
ENT
RAT
E (P
ERC
ENT)
……
……
…11
.98.
36.
06.
15.
35.
14.
54.
84.
34.
44.
14.
63.
47.
45.
34.
4
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 21
Tabl
e 16
: Te
nnes
see
Civ
ilian
Lab
or F
orce
and
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate,
Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
CIV
ILIA
N L
ABO
R F
OR
CE
(TH
OU
S)…
……
…32
2732
9132
9033
2533
3633
4833
5633
7933
8933
9934
1234
1933
4332
9433
4133
95%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
-15.
898.
15-0
.08
4.38
1.26
1.51
0.92
2.73
1.21
1.23
1.53
0.84
2.74
-1.4
71.
431.
60%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
-3.2
5-1
.91
-2.2
9-1
.31
3.38
1.76
2.01
1.60
1.59
1.52
1.67
1.20
2.74
-1.4
71.
431.
60
EMPL
OYE
D P
ERSO
NS
(TH
OU
S)…
……
…28
3730
2230
8331
3631
5531
7931
9632
2932
4032
5232
6632
7432
3030
5031
6732
47%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
-42.
3828
.65
8.43
7.02
2.47
3.03
2.12
4.29
1.37
1.41
1.76
1.01
2.88
-5.5
93.
832.
54%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
-11.
88-6
.80
-5.2
9-3
.69
11.2
15.
213.
642.
972.
702.
292.
201.
392.
88-5
.59
3.83
2.54
UN
EMPL
OYE
D P
ERSO
NS
(TH
OU
S)…
…39
026
920
718
918
116
916
014
914
914
814
614
511
324
517
514
8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
1402
4.51
-77.
28-6
5.22
-29.
49-1
7.21
-22.
47-1
9.62
-24.
89-2
.16
-2.5
4-3
.46
-2.8
4-1
.08
115.
87-2
8.47
-15.
43%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
238.
1213
8.68
85.0
767
.50
-53.
65-3
7.01
-22.
34-2
1.10
-17.
74-1
2.89
-8.8
1-2
.75
-1.0
811
5.87
-28.
47-1
5.43
PAR
TIC
IPAT
ION
RAT
E (P
ERC
ENT)
……
……
58.4
59.4
59.3
59.8
59.9
60.0
60.0
60.3
60.4
60.4
60.6
60.6
61.0
59.6
59.9
60.4
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
…-1
6.59
7.26
-0.9
03.
540.
450.
700.
131.
920.
430.
450.
750.
081.
85-2
.29
0.61
0.80
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…-4
.06
-2.7
3-3
.10
-2.1
22.
540.
931.
190.
800.
790.
730.
890.
431.
85-2
.29
0.61
0.80
UN
EMPL
OYM
ENT
RAT
E (P
ERC
ENT)
……
…12
.18.
26.
35.
75.
45.
14.
84.
44.
44.
34.
34.
23.
47.
55.
24.
4
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
22 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 17
: Te
nnes
see
Taxa
ble
Sale
s, N
ot S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (m
illio
ns o
f 201
2 do
llars
)
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
TOTA
L TA
XABL
E SA
LES…
……
……
……
……
……
3145
333
036
3604
830
528
3316
933
050
3613
331
034
3394
533
993
3721
831
926
1291
0012
9672
1328
8013
6191
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-2
.50
2.72
1.63
4.78
5.46
0.04
0.24
1.66
2.34
2.85
3.00
2.87
4.42
0.44
2.47
2.49
AUTO
DEA
LER
S……
……
……
……
……
……
…32
4933
8831
3430
5332
1332
5830
5430
4232
0932
6330
5930
5012
676
1265
412
579
1257
3%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
0.95
1.89
0.13
5.88
-1.1
0-3
.82
-2.5
4-0
.39
-0.1
30.
150.
160.
272.
86-0
.17
-0.6
0-0
.05
PUR
CH
ASES
FR
OM
MAN
UFA
CTU
RER
S….
1366
1481
1934
1295
1463
1427
1839
1259
1440
1425
1860
1273
5895
6100
6023
5985
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-2
.30
8.48
1.54
-1.7
87.
07-3
.71
-4.9
2-2
.75
-1.5
3-0
.08
1.13
1.07
7.07
3.48
-1.2
6-0
.64
MIS
C D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…60
9960
8664
4752
6860
3056
9159
0149
6158
1556
2959
9850
7721
890
2350
922
891
2240
3%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
9.05
10.3
57.
388.
01-1
.13
-6.4
9-8
.47
-5.8
3-3
.57
-1.0
91.
642.
354.
537.
40-2
.63
-2.1
3
EATI
NG
AN
D D
RIN
KIN
G P
LAC
ES…
……
……
2691
3106
3112
2952
3207
3181
3171
3036
3297
3285
3266
3114
1375
511
769
1251
212
884
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-2
4.07
-11.
23-1
0.13
3.21
19.2
02.
411.
912.
842.
813.
262.
992.
588.
71-1
4.44
6.31
2.98
FOO
D S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
3319
3241
3397
2959
3067
3111
3368
3017
3131
3179
3441
3085
1202
813
033
1250
412
768
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…12
.47
8.55
3.57
-3.8
2-7
.59
-4.0
1-0
.86
1.96
2.09
2.20
2.19
2.26
1.82
8.35
-4.0
62.
11
LIQ
UO
R S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
…29
829
335
628
328
325
129
223
226
025
030
224
096
111
8611
0910
45%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
28.2
524
.17
28.1
418
.30
-5.2
3-1
4.12
-18.
14-1
7.90
-7.8
9-0
.32
3.51
3.55
6.73
23.4
0-6
.55
-5.7
3
HO
TELS
AN
D M
OTE
LS…
……
……
……
……
…41
071
077
766
490
796
610
0382
410
8610
9510
6184
342
8926
2735
4040
65%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-64.
89-3
8.67
-27.
32-9
.06
121.
0735
.99
29.1
024
.09
19.7
613
.37
5.73
2.36
20.6
6-3
8.74
34.7
214
.85
OTH
ER R
ETAI
L AN
D S
ERVI
CE…
……
……
…10
172
1059
112
332
1021
110
906
1099
812
813
1063
411
408
1152
313
415
1114
339
746
4248
044
928
4698
0%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
3.98
9.74
8.12
8.81
7.22
3.84
3.90
4.14
4.60
4.78
4.70
4.79
4.15
6.88
5.76
4.57
MIS
C N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
2082
2377
2824
2223
2431
2406
2861
2258
2478
2458
2924
2314
9835
9308
9921
1011
8%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-14.
21-0
.53
-0.1
59.
8216
.73
1.21
1.30
1.57
1.93
2.17
2.21
2.46
2.13
-5.3
66.
581.
99
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, C
OM
MU
NIC
ATIO
N…
…17
6617
6217
3416
2116
6117
6118
3117
7318
2018
8518
9217
8780
2570
0568
7573
70%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-9.1
4-1
3.42
-17.
72-6
.97
-5.9
1-0
.06
5.58
9.36
9.57
7.01
3.34
0.79
-1.5
5-1
2.71
-1.8
67.
20
PER
CAP
ITA
($)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
4567
4797
5235
4397
4778
4760
5205
4435
4851
4858
5319
4528
1890
618
830
1914
019
463
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-3
.31
1.86
0.77
3.93
4.60
-0.7
7-0
.58
0.86
1.54
2.05
2.20
2.09
3.52
-0.4
01.
641.
69
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 23
Tabl
e 18
: Te
nnes
see
Taxa
ble
Sale
s, S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (m
illio
ns o
f 201
2 do
llars
)
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
TOTA
L TA
XABL
E SA
LES…
……
……
……
……
……
3144
333
207
3330
333
127
3313
533
213
3337
933
671
3392
134
157
3437
034
641
1289
5712
9563
1328
5413
6119
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-2
.10
24.4
01.
17-2
.10
0.10
0.94
2.02
3.54
3.00
2.82
2.51
3.19
4.39
0.47
2.54
2.46
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-2
.21
2.82
1.36
4.80
5.38
0.02
0.23
1.64
2.37
2.84
2.97
2.88
4.39
0.47
2.54
2.46
AUTO
DEA
LER
S……
……
……
……
……
……
…31
8232
6432
2231
5331
4731
3931
4031
4131
4231
4431
4531
5012
671
1264
612
579
1257
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
30.2
810
.73
-5.0
3-8
.26
-0.8
4-0
.96
0.15
0.11
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.56
2.84
-0.2
0-0
.53
-0.0
5%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
0.91
1.88
0.13
5.88
-1.1
0-3
.82
-2.5
4-0
.39
-0.1
30.
150.
160.
272.
84-0
.20
-0.5
3-0
.05
PUR
CH
ASES
FR
OM
MAN
UFA
CTU
RER
S….
1417
1556
1562
1532
1517
1499
1485
1490
1494
1497
1502
1506
5869
6095
6033
5983
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-3
1.93
45.5
61.
53-7
.50
-3.8
7-4
.77
-3.4
81.
251.
040.
931.
301.
027.
003.
85-1
.02
-0.8
2%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-2.0
58.
491.
54-1
.78
7.07
-3.7
1-4
.92
-2.7
5-1
.53
-0.0
81.
131.
077.
003.
85-1
.02
-0.8
2
MIS
C D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…58
5760
6960
6259
0157
9056
7555
4955
5755
8456
1356
4056
8721
861
2345
122
915
2239
4%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
32.0
615
.31
-0.4
6-1
0.22
-7.2
8-7
.71
-8.6
30.
581.
952.
141.
913.
394.
537.
27-2
.28
-2.2
8%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
9.06
10.2
57.
388.
01-1
.13
-6.4
9-8
.47
-5.8
3-3
.57
-1.0
91.
642.
354.
537.
27-2
.28
-2.2
8
EATI
NG
AN
D D
RIN
KIN
G P
LAC
ES…
……
……
2617
3057
3095
3103
3119
3131
3154
3192
3207
3233
3248
3274
1374
411
775
1250
712
879
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-4
2.64
86.2
25.
041.
102.
091.
472.
974.
881.
953.
261.
913.
238.
72-1
4.33
6.21
2.98
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-2
3.84
-11.
52-1
0.13
3.21
19.2
02.
411.
912.
842.
813.
262.
992.
588.
72-1
4.33
6.21
2.98
FOO
D S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
3374
3262
3176
3106
3118
3131
3149
3166
3183
3200
3218
3238
1202
313
041
1250
412
767
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…19
.25
-12.
70-1
0.08
-8.6
01.
651.
622.
352.
222.
152.
062.
302.
511.
748.
47-4
.12
2.11
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…12
.39
8.68
3.57
-3.8
2-7
.59
-4.0
1-0
.86
1.96
2.09
2.20
2.19
2.26
1.74
8.47
-4.1
22.
11
LIQ
UO
R S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
…29
830
631
231
428
226
325
625
826
026
226
526
796
111
8111
1410
44%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
58.8
812
.19
7.86
1.88
-34.
56-2
4.34
-10.
953.
073.
673.
753.
563.
236.
9222
.90
-5.6
6-6
.31
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…28
.18
24.0
628
.14
18.3
0-5
.23
-14.
12-1
8.14
-17.
90-7
.89
-0.3
23.
513.
556.
9222
.90
-5.6
6-6
.31
HO
TELS
AN
D M
OTE
LS…
……
……
……
……
…38
366
175
081
284
689
896
910
0810
1310
1910
2410
3142
9026
8735
2540
64%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
-96.
6378
9.32
66.5
137
.12
17.6
327
.34
35.2
617
.02
2.05
2.27
2.32
2.77
21.1
1-3
7.36
31.2
115
.27
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-6
4.57
-38.
90-2
7.32
-9.0
612
1.07
35.9
929
.10
24.0
919
.76
13.3
75.
732.
3621
.11
-37.
3631
.21
15.2
7
OTH
ER R
ETAI
L AN
D S
ERVI
CE…
……
……
…10
403
1085
210
972
1106
911
154
1126
811
400
1152
711
667
1180
611
935
1208
039
690
4239
944
891
4693
6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
9.38
18.3
94.
523.
583.
114.
144.
774.
554.
944.
844.
454.
934.
076.
835.
884.
56%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
4.11
9.62
8.12
8.81
7.22
3.84
3.90
4.14
4.60
4.78
4.70
4.79
4.07
6.83
5.88
4.56
MIS
C N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
2119
2453
2462
2467
2473
2482
2494
2505
2521
2536
2549
2567
9828
9280
9916
1011
2%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
-20.
8179
.59
1.46
0.80
1.11
1.46
1.83
1.89
2.54
2.43
1.97
2.92
2.15
-5.5
76.
861.
97%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-14.
16-0
.63
-0.1
59.
8216
.73
1.21
1.30
1.57
1.93
2.17
2.21
2.46
2.15
-5.5
76.
861.
97
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, C
OM
MU
NIC
ATIO
N…
…17
9417
2716
9016
7116
8817
2617
8418
2718
5018
4718
4318
4180
2070
0768
6973
67%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
-0.4
3-1
4.05
-8.4
4-4
.42
4.21
9.40
14.0
510
.00
5.02
-0.4
9-0
.81
-0.4
7-1
.58
-12.
63-1
.97
7.26
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-9
.01
-13.
65-1
7.72
-6.9
7-5
.91
-0.0
65.
589.
369.
577.
013.
340.
79-1
.58
-12.
63-1
.97
7.26
PER
CAP
ITA
($)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
4566
4822
4836
4772
4773
4784
4808
4812
4848
4881
4912
4913
1888
518
814
1913
619
453
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-2
.10
24.4
01.
17-5
.24
0.10
0.94
2.02
0.33
3.00
2.82
2.51
0.10
3.50
-0.3
71.
711.
65%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-3.0
31.
960.
513.
954.
53-0
.79
-0.5
80.
851.
572.
042.
162.
103.
50-0
.37
1.71
1.65
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
24 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 19
: Te
nnes
see
Taxa
ble
Sale
s, N
ot S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (m
illio
ns o
f cur
rent
dol
lars
)
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
TOTA
L TA
XABL
E SA
LES…
……
……
……
……
……
3473
536
857
4037
834
391
3756
337
632
4135
135
678
3919
139
400
4332
537
304
1418
6414
4275
1509
3615
7594
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-1
.87
4.08
2.99
6.45
8.14
2.10
2.41
3.74
4.33
4.70
4.77
4.56
5.98
1.70
4.62
4.41
AUTO
DEA
LER
S……
……
……
……
……
……
…35
8837
7935
1034
4036
3937
1034
9634
9737
0537
8235
6135
6413
927
1407
614
284
1454
5%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
1.60
3.24
1.48
7.57
1.42
-1.8
4-0
.43
1.66
1.81
1.95
1.88
1.91
4.41
1.07
1.48
1.83
PUR
CH
ASES
FR
OM
MAN
UFA
CTU
RER
S….
1509
1653
2167
1458
1656
1624
2105
1447
1663
1652
2165
1487
6480
6790
6844
6927
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-1
.67
9.91
2.90
-0.2
29.
79-1
.73
-2.8
6-0
.75
0.39
1.71
2.87
2.73
8.67
4.77
0.80
1.22
MIS
C D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…67
3667
9072
2159
3468
2964
8067
5357
0367
1465
2469
8259
3224
056
2615
525
997
2592
3%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
9.75
11.8
18.
829.
731.
39-4
.56
-6.4
8-3
.90
-1.6
90.
683.
394.
026.
098.
73-0
.60
-0.2
8
EATI
NG
AN
D D
RIN
KIN
G P
LAC
ES…
……
……
2971
3466
3486
3325
3632
3622
3629
3490
3807
3808
3802
3639
1511
113
094
1420
914
906
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-2
3.57
-10.
05-8
.93
4.85
22.2
44.
524.
124.
954.
815.
114.
764.
2610
.32
-13.
358.
514.
91
FOO
D S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
3665
3616
3805
3333
3474
3542
3854
3468
3615
3685
4006
3604
1321
714
497
1420
314
774
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…13
.20
9.99
4.95
-2.2
9-5
.24
-2.0
41.
294.
054.
074.
033.
943.
933.
359.
69-2
.03
4.02
LIQ
UO
R S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
…33
032
639
931
932
028
633
426
730
129
035
128
110
5713
2012
5912
09%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
29.0
825
.81
29.8
620
.19
-2.8
1-1
2.35
-16.
36-1
6.21
-6.1
01.
475.
295.
258.
3124
.95
-4.6
5-3
.92
HO
TELS
AN
D M
OTE
LS…
……
……
……
……
…45
379
287
074
810
2710
9911
4894
712
5412
6912
3598
547
1329
2540
2247
05%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-64.
66-3
7.85
-26.
34-7
.61
126.
7038
.79
31.9
026
.63
22.0
915
.41
7.55
4.03
22.4
2-3
7.93
37.5
216
.96
OTH
ER R
ETAI
L AN
D S
ERVI
CE…
……
……
…11
233
1181
613
814
1150
312
351
1252
214
663
1222
513
171
1335
615
616
1302
143
680
4726
951
040
5436
8%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
4.65
11.1
99.
5710
.55
9.95
5.97
6.15
6.28
6.64
6.66
6.50
6.51
5.71
8.22
7.98
6.52
MIS
C N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
2300
2652
3163
2505
2753
2739
3274
2596
2860
2849
3404
2704
1080
810
360
1127
011
709
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-1
3.65
0.79
1.19
11.5
719
.71
3.29
3.49
3.65
3.91
4.00
3.96
4.14
3.65
-4.1
58.
793.
89
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, C
OM
MU
NIC
ATIO
N…
…19
5019
6619
4318
2618
8120
0520
9620
3821
0121
8422
0320
8888
1677
9178
0985
27%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-8.5
6-1
2.27
-16.
61-5
.49
-3.5
12.
007.
8711
.60
11.7
08.
935.
122.
44-0
.07
-11.
630.
239.
20
PER
CAP
ITA
($)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
5044
5352
5863
4954
5410
5420
5956
5099
5601
5631
6192
5291
2077
520
951
2174
022
522
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-2
.69
3.21
2.13
5.59
7.27
1.27
1.58
2.93
3.52
3.88
3.95
3.77
5.07
0.85
3.77
3.59
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 25
Tabl
e 20
: Te
nnes
see
Taxa
ble
Sale
s, S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (m
illio
ns o
f cur
rent
dol
lars
)
2020
:220
20:3
2020
:420
21:1
2021
:220
21:3
2021
:420
22:1
2022
:220
22:3
2022
:420
23:1
2019
2020
2021
2022
TOTA
L TA
XABL
E SA
LES…
……
……
……
……
……
3472
437
047
3730
437
319
3752
537
817
3819
938
709
3916
339
591
4001
040
477
1416
7014
4124
1508
6015
7472
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-3
.67
29.5
72.
800.
162.
233.
154.
115.
454.
764.
444.
304.
765.
951.
734.
674.
38%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-1.5
74.
182.
726.
478.
072.
082.
403.
734.
364.
694.
744.
575.
951.
734.
674.
38
AUTO
DEA
LER
S……
……
……
……
……
……
…35
1436
4136
0935
5235
6435
7435
9436
1136
2836
4436
6136
8013
920
1406
614
284
1454
5%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
28.1
915
.33
-3.5
0-6
.14
1.27
1.20
2.20
1.96
1.88
1.77
1.93
2.08
4.38
1.05
1.54
1.83
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…1.
563.
231.
487.
571.
42-1
.84
-0.4
31.
661.
811.
951.
881.
914.
381.
051.
541.
83
PUR
CH
ASES
FR
OM
MAN
UFA
CTU
RER
S….
1565
1736
1750
1726
1718
1706
1700
1713
1725
1736
1749
1760
6448
6781
6850
6922
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-3
3.02
51.6
13.
16-5
.36
-1.8
3-2
.69
-1.5
13.
122.
772.
533.
072.
558.
595.
161.
031.
05%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-1.4
29.
932.
90-0
.22
9.79
-1.7
3-2
.86
-0.7
50.
391.
712.
872.
738.
595.
161.
031.
05
MIS
C D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…64
6867
7167
9066
4865
5764
6263
5063
8864
4665
0665
6566
4524
017
2608
726
017
2590
6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
29.9
420
.11
1.14
-8.1
4-5
.31
-5.6
9-6
.76
2.43
3.69
3.76
3.69
4.96
6.09
8.62
-0.2
7-0
.43
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…9.
7711
.71
8.82
9.73
1.39
-4.5
6-6
.48
-3.9
0-1
.69
0.68
3.39
4.02
6.09
8.62
-0.2
7-0
.43
EATI
NG
AN
D D
RIN
KIN
G P
LAC
ES…
……
……
2890
3410
3466
3496
3533
3565
3609
3669
3702
3747
3781
3826
1509
913
101
1420
214
900
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-4
3.56
93.9
66.
733.
444.
263.
695.
086.
813.
694.
893.
694.
7910
.33
-13.
238.
414.
91%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-23.
35-1
0.35
-8.9
34.
8522
.24
4.52
4.12
4.95
4.81
5.11
4.76
4.26
10.3
3-1
3.23
8.41
4.91
FOO
D S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
3726
3639
3558
3499
3531
3565
3604
3640
3675
3709
3746
3783
1320
814
503
1419
814
770
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…17
.34
-9.0
7-8
.63
-6.4
93.
813.
844.
444.
113.
903.
684.
094.
063.
269.
81-2
.10
4.02
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…13
.12
10.1
24.
95-2
.29
-5.2
4-2
.04
1.29
4.05
4.07
4.03
3.94
3.93
3.26
9.81
-2.1
04.
02
LIQ
UO
R S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
…32
934
235
035
331
930
029
229
630
030
430
831
210
5613
1412
6512
08%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
56.3
316
.86
9.60
4.23
-33.
17-2
2.69
-9.1
34.
975.
445.
395.
374.
798.
5024
.45
-3.7
5-4
.50
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…29
.01
25.7
029
.86
20.1
9-2
.81
-12.
35-1
6.36
-16.
21-6
.10
1.47
5.29
5.25
8.50
24.4
5-3
.75
-4.5
0
HO
TELS
AN
D M
OTE
LS…
……
……
……
……
…42
273
784
191
595
810
2311
0911
5911
6911
8111
9312
0547
1229
9040
0447
01%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
-96.
6982
6.28
69.1
940
.29
20.1
330
.12
38.0
319
.18
3.80
3.89
4.11
4.33
22.8
8-3
6.53
33.9
117
.40
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-6
4.34
-38.
09-2
6.34
-7.6
112
6.70
38.7
931
.90
26.6
322
.09
15.4
17.
554.
0322
.88
-36.
5333
.91
17.4
0
OTH
ER R
ETAI
L AN
D S
ERVI
CE…
……
……
…11
489
1210
712
290
1247
012
632
1283
013
046
1325
213
470
1368
413
894
1411
543
604
4716
550
977
5430
0%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
7.63
23.3
26.
205.
975.
316.
426.
916.
486.
746.
506.
276.
525.
638.
178.
086.
52%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
4.78
11.0
79.
5710
.55
9.95
5.97
6.15
6.28
6.64
6.66
6.50
6.51
5.63
8.17
8.08
6.52
MIS
C N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
2340
2737
2757
2779
2801
2827
2854
2880
2911
2940
2967
3000
1079
610
325
1126
011
698
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-2
2.08
87.0
53.
093.
133.
263.
683.
913.
774.
294.
053.
754.
483.
67-4
.37
9.06
3.89
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-1
3.61
0.68
1.19
11.5
719
.71
3.29
3.49
3.65
3.91
4.00
3.96
4.14
3.67
-4.3
79.
063.
89
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, C
OM
MU
NIC
ATIO
N…
…19
8119
2718
9318
8219
1219
6620
4221
0021
3521
4121
4621
5288
1077
9278
0185
23%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
-2.0
2-1
0.48
-6.9
7-2
.21
6.43
11.7
916
.38
12.0
36.
821.
090.
921.
04-0
.10
-11.
560.
119.
26%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-8.4
2-1
2.51
-16.
61-5
.49
-3.5
12.
007.
8711
.60
11.7
08.
935.
122.
44-0
.10
-11.
560.
119.
26
PER
CAP
ITA
($)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
5042
5380
5417
5375
5405
5447
5502
5532
5597
5658
5718
5741
2074
620
929
2172
922
504
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-3
.67
29.5
72.
80-3
.05
2.23
3.15
4.11
2.18
4.76
4.44
4.30
1.62
5.04
0.88
3.82
3.57
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-2
.40
3.31
1.86
5.61
7.19
1.25
1.57
2.91
3.55
3.87
3.92
3.77
5.04
0.88
3.82
3.57
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
tory
Fore
cast
Dat
aAn
nual
Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
26 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 1:
Sel
ecte
d U.
S. a
nd T
enne
ssee
Eco
nom
ic In
dica
tors
, Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TN G
DP
(Mil2
012$
) SAA
R…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…31
7221
.232
6558
.633
8288
3466
36.7
3543
90.1
3621
86.7
3698
51.9
3773
90.5
3846
70.7
3918
84.6
4000
15Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…-3
.52
2.94
3.59
2.47
2.24
2.20
2.12
2.04
1.93
1.88
2.07
US
GD
P (B
il201
2$) S
AAR
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
1841
3.2
1898
2.4
1946
4.1
1994
5.3
2052
7.9
2114
2.2
2171
6.9
2228
9.5
2285
2.7
2337
3.2
2390
0.8
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-3.5
53.
092.
542.
472.
922.
992.
722.
642.
532.
282.
26U
S G
DP
(Bil$
) SAA
R…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
..20
924.
321
986.
122
998.
724
055.
825
274.
926
579.
627
895.
329
288.
330
742.
832
194.
533
712.
1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…-2
.37
5.07
4.61
4.60
5.07
5.16
4.95
4.99
4.97
4.72
4.71
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E (M
IL20
12$)
SAA
R…
…...
......
......
....
3114
3830
8333
3165
2232
5860
3366
0134
5732
3545
0536
3472
3716
6237
9887
3883
48Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…2.
90-1
.00
2.66
2.95
3.30
2.71
2.54
2.53
2.25
2.21
2.23
US
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
(BIL
2012
$) S
AAR
……
……
......
......
.17
660
1709
517
320
1773
818
286
1886
819
426
1998
920
555
2109
221
640
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
4.58
-3.2
01.
322.
413.
093.
182.
962.
902.
832.
622.
60TN
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
(MIL
$) S
AAR
……
……
……
……
......
3463
7635
0125
3661
7538
2997
4023
8942
1286
4411
0246
2213
4830
5950
4409
5265
40Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…4.
181.
084.
584.
595.
064.
704.
704.
794.
514.
424.
39U
S PE
RSO
NAL
INC
OM
E (B
IL$)
SAA
R…
……
……
……
…...
...19
631
1936
420
052
2094
122
000
2314
424
318
2556
526
876
2819
729
576
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
5.82
-1.3
63.
554.
435.
065.
205.
075.
135.
134.
914.
89TN
NO
NFA
RM
JO
BS (T
HO
US)
……
……
……
……
……
……
…30
07.0
3073
.931
33.8
3175
.632
18.5
3262
.333
04.1
3339
.233
71.4
3403
.534
36.6
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-3.7
12.
231.
951.
331.
351.
361.
281.
060.
960.
950.
98U
S N
ON
FAR
M J
OBS
(MIL
)……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…14
2.4
147.
515
1.3
153.
415
5.1
156.
615
7.5
158.
515
9.4
160.
016
0.7
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-5.6
53.
562.
581.
361.
150.
940.
610.
600.
570.
370.
44TN
MFG
JO
BS (T
HO
US)
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
327.
833
0.5
334.
633
6.9
338.
833
9.5
340.
434
1.0
341.
734
2.2
342.
8Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…-7
.67
0.82
1.24
0.69
0.56
0.19
0.27
0.19
0.20
0.15
0.18
US
MFG
JO
BS (M
IL)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…12
.212
.412
.512
.612
.612
.512
.412
.312
.212
.112
.0Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…-4
.62
0.96
0.97
1.20
-0.3
8-0
.75
-0.5
9-0
.70
-0.8
3-1
.01
-1.0
6TN
UN
EMPL
OYM
ENT
RAT
E (%
)……
……
……
……
……
…...
..7.
55.
24.
44.
24.
04.
03.
93.
93.
93.
93.
9U
S U
NEM
PLO
YMEN
T R
ATE
(%)…
……
……
……
……
……
….
8.1
5.7
4.7
4.4
4.0
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.9
3.9
CH
AIN
ED P
RIC
E IN
DEX
, GD
P (2
012=
100.
0)…
……
……
......
.11
3.6
115.
811
8.2
120.
612
3.1
125.
712
8.4
131.
413
4.5
137.
714
1.0
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
1.17
1.93
2.01
2.07
2.09
2.11
2.17
2.30
2.38
2.39
2.40
US
PER
S C
ON
SUM
P D
EFL
(201
2=10
0.0)
……
……
…...
......
...11
1.2
113.
311
5.8
118.
112
0.3
122.
712
5.2
127.
913
0.7
133.
713
6.7
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
1.20
1.90
2.20
1.97
1.91
1.96
2.05
2.17
2.24
2.24
2.23
CO
NSU
MER
PR
ICE
IND
EX, A
LL-U
RBA
N (8
2-84
=1.0
00)…
…2.
589
2.64
82.
718
2.77
92.
836
2.89
82.
965
3.03
73.
112
3.18
83.
264
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
1.26
2.30
2.64
2.23
2.08
2.17
2.32
2.43
2.47
2.43
2.40
BAN
K PR
IME
INTE
RES
T R
ATE
(%)…
……
……
……
……
……
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.9
4.4
4.9
FED
ERAL
FU
ND
S R
ATE
(% p
er a
nnum
)……
……
……
……
…0.
378
0.10
00.
100
0.10
50.
122
0.12
50.
140
0.39
10.
781
1.28
31.
784
30-Y
EAR
FIX
ED M
OR
TGAG
E R
ATE
(%)…
……
……
……
……
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.6
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
(MIL
2012
$)…
……
……
……
……
……
…12
9563
1328
5413
6119
1400
2114
4088
1476
4015
1220
1552
3715
8970
1629
7316
7419
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
0.47
2.54
2.46
2.87
2.90
2.47
2.42
2.66
2.40
2.52
2.73
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
(MIL
$)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
1441
2415
0860
1574
7216
4572
1722
4817
9903
1881
6019
7409
2066
1821
6395
2269
97Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…1.
734.
674.
384.
514.
664.
444.
594.
924.
664.
734.
90TN
AVG
AN
NU
AL W
AGE,
NO
NFA
RM
(201
2$)…
……
……
.....
4806
847
906
4838
049
185
5004
250
736
5131
251
917
5256
353
199
5385
6Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…1.
52-0
.34
0.99
1.66
1.74
1.39
1.13
1.18
1.24
1.21
1.23
TN A
VG A
NN
UAL
WAG
E, N
ON
FAR
M ($
)……
……
……
......
...53
463
5439
855
969
5780
859
822
6182
263
845
6602
068
316
7063
673
019
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
2.79
1.75
2.89
3.29
3.48
3.34
3.27
3.41
3.48
3.40
3.37
Boyd
Cen
ter f
or B
usin
ess
and
Econ
omic
Res
earc
h, U
nive
rsity
of T
enne
ssee
Dece
mbe
r 202
0Fo
reca
st D
ata
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 27
Tabl
e 2:
Sel
ecte
d Pe
r Cap
ita U
.S. a
nd T
enne
ssee
Eco
nom
ic In
dica
tors
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TN G
DP
(201
2$) S
AAR
……
……
……
……
……
4606
547
037
4834
449
162
4989
350
629
5134
452
039
5269
653
341
5410
7Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
…-4
.33
2.11
2.78
1.69
1.49
1.47
1.41
1.35
1.26
1.22
1.44
US
GD
P (2
012$
) SAA
R…
……
……
……
.……
…55
729
5706
258
105
5913
560
454
6185
363
124
6437
865
596
6668
367
785
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e....
......
......
......
......
.....
-4.0
42.
391.
831.
772.
232.
312.
051.
991.
891.
661.
65
US
GD
P ($
) SAA
R…
……
……
……
……
……
…63
329
6609
168
656
7132
274
434
7776
181
082
8459
288
243
9185
095
611
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e....
......
......
......
......
.....
-2.8
74.
363.
883.
884.
364.
474.
274.
334.
324.
094.
09
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E (2
012$
) SAA
R…
….
4522
544
411
4523
446
216
4738
948
329
4921
450
120
5091
451
708
5252
9Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge.
......
......
......
......
......
..2.
04-1
.80
1.85
2.17
2.54
1.98
1.83
1.84
1.58
1.56
1.59
US
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
(201
2$) S
AAR
……
5345
051
387
5170
552
590
5385
255
199
5646
557
733
5900
060
176
6137
4Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge.
......
......
......
......
......
..4.
04-3
.86
0.62
1.71
2.40
2.50
2.29
2.25
2.19
1.99
1.99
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E ($
) SAA
R…
……
……
5029
950
431
5233
054
319
5665
158
890
6123
563
736
6617
568
657
7122
1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge.
......
......
......
......
......
..3.
310.
263.
763.
804.
293.
953.
984.
083.
833.
753.
73
US
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
($) S
AAR
……
……
.59
413
5821
159
861
6208
864
790
6771
070
684
7383
877
145
8044
683
879
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e....
......
......
......
......
.....
5.28
-2.0
22.
833.
724.
354.
514.
394.
464.
484.
284.
27
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
(201
2$)…
……
……
……
1881
419
136
1945
319
859
2028
620
638
2099
321
406
2177
722
183
2264
5Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge.
......
......
......
......
......
..-0
.37
1.71
1.65
2.09
2.15
1.74
1.72
1.97
1.73
1.86
2.08
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
($)…
……
……
……
……
2092
921
729
2250
423
341
2425
025
148
2612
127
221
2830
529
454
3070
4Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge.
......
......
......
......
......
..0.
883.
823.
573.
723.
903.
703.
874.
213.
984.
064.
24
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Dec
embe
r 202
0
Fore
cast
Dat
a
Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
28 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 3:
Ten
ness
ee P
erso
nal I
ncom
e C
ompo
nent
s (m
illio
ns o
f 201
2 do
llars
)
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E……
……
...…
……
……
3114
3830
8333
3165
2232
5860
3366
0134
5732
3545
0536
3472
3716
6237
9887
3883
48Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
…2.
90-1
.00
2.66
2.95
3.30
2.71
2.54
2.53
2.25
2.21
2.23
WAG
ES A
ND
SAL
ARIE
S……
……
……
……
…14
5363
1481
2015
2475
1570
4816
1909
1663
5217
0363
1741
7517
8010
1818
4918
5858
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
-2.2
61.
902.
943.
003.
102.
742.
412.
242.
202.
162.
20
OTH
ER L
ABO
R IN
CO
ME…
……
……
……
…32
223
3366
234
622
3569
636
887
3788
938
816
3972
340
614
4161
342
663
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
-0.8
94.
472.
853.
103.
342.
722.
452.
342.
242.
462.
52
PRO
PRIE
TOR
S IN
CO
ME…
……
……
……
…37
761
4099
942
964
4418
045
316
4650
247
750
4906
350
369
5171
752
874
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
-9.6
38.
574.
792.
832.
572.
622.
682.
752.
662.
682.
24
REN
T, IN
TER
EST,
DIV
IDEN
DS…
……
……
…43
799
4275
442
930
4358
744
353
4495
845
586
4633
146
917
4760
648
285
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
-2.4
7-2
.38
0.41
1.53
1.76
1.36
1.40
1.63
1.26
1.47
1.43
TRAN
SFER
PAY
MEN
TS…
……
……
……
……
7701
766
885
6786
770
020
7310
975
081
7711
679
462
8129
282
813
8463
4Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
…27
.70
-13.
161.
473.
174.
412.
702.
713.
042.
301.
872.
20
LESS
: PE
RS
CO
NT
FOR
SO
C IN
S……
……
2287
922
321
2259
122
940
2326
223
360
2346
023
641
2392
324
116
2439
6Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
…-3
.17
-2.4
41.
211.
541.
400.
420.
430.
771.
200.
801.
16
RES
IDEN
CE
ADJU
STM
ENT…
……
……
……
-184
6-1
767
-174
5-1
730
-171
2-1
691
-166
6-1
642
-161
7-1
594
-157
0Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
…-5
.68
-4.3
2-1
.22
-0.8
6-1
.02
-1.2
4-1
.46
-1.4
6-1
.54
-1.3
9-1
.51
PER
CAP
ITA
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
($)…
……
…45
225
4441
145
234
4621
647
389
4832
949
214
5012
050
914
5170
852
529
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
2.04
-1.8
01.
852.
172.
541.
981.
831.
841.
581.
561.
59
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
Fore
cast
Dat
a
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2012 dollars)
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 29
Tabl
e 4:
Ten
ness
ee P
erso
nal I
ncom
e C
ompo
nent
s (m
illio
ns o
f cur
rent
dol
lars
)
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E……
……
...…
……
……
3463
7635
0125
3661
7538
2997
4023
8942
1286
4411
0246
2213
4830
5950
4409
5265
40Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
…4.
181.
084.
584.
595.
064.
704.
704.
794.
514.
424.
39
WAG
ES A
ND
SAL
ARIE
S……
……
……
……
…16
1685
1681
9917
6394
1845
8519
3553
2027
0521
1978
2214
9123
1364
2414
5625
1995
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
-1.0
34.
034.
874.
644.
864.
734.
574.
494.
464.
364.
36
OTH
ER L
ABO
R IN
CO
ME…
……
……
……
…35
843
3822
540
053
4195
544
097
4616
948
298
5051
552
788
5525
357
844
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
0.36
6.64
4.78
4.75
5.11
4.70
4.61
4.59
4.50
4.67
4.69
PRO
PRIE
TOR
S IN
CO
ME…
……
……
……
…42
004
4655
949
704
5192
654
173
5666
459
414
6239
265
467
6867
071
689
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
-8.5
010
.84
6.76
4.47
4.33
4.60
4.85
5.01
4.93
4.89
4.40
REN
T, IN
TER
EST,
DIV
IDEN
DS…
……
……
…48
711
4854
749
664
5122
853
021
5478
156
721
5891
660
978
6321
065
466
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
-1.2
6-0
.34
2.30
3.15
3.50
3.32
3.54
3.87
3.50
3.66
3.57
TRAN
SFER
PAY
MEN
TS…
……
……
……
……
8563
175
947
7851
482
297
8739
991
489
9595
410
1049
1056
5710
9957
1147
51Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
…29
.24
-11.
313.
384.
826.
204.
684.
885.
314.
564.
074.
36
LESS
: PE
RS
CO
NT
FOR
SO
C IN
S……
……
2544
525
346
2613
526
962
2780
728
464
2918
930
062
3109
332
020
3307
6Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
…-1
.97
-0.3
93.
113.
163.
142.
362.
552.
993.
432.
983.
30
RES
IDEN
CE
ADJU
STM
ENT…
……
……
……
-205
3-2
006
-201
9-2
033
-204
7-2
061
-207
3-2
088
-210
1-2
117
-212
9Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
…-4
.51
-2.3
10.
640.
720.
670.
670.
620.
710.
630.
740.
57
PER
CAP
ITA
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
($)…
……
…50
299
5043
152
330
5431
956
651
5889
061
235
6373
666
175
6865
771
221
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
3.31
0.26
3.76
3.80
4.29
3.95
3.98
4.08
3.83
3.75
3.73
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
Fore
cast
Dat
a
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars)
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
30 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 5:
Ten
ness
ee N
onfa
rm E
mpl
oym
ent b
y Se
ctor
(tho
usan
ds o
f job
s)
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…30
07.0
3073
.931
33.8
3175
.632
18.5
3262
.333
04.1
3339
.233
71.4
3403
.534
36.6
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-3
.71
2.23
1.95
1.33
1.35
1.36
1.28
1.06
0.96
0.95
0.98
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
, MIN
ING
AN
D C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N…
……
……
……
……
…13
1.7
133.
913
6.2
138.
314
0.3
142.
714
5.1
147.
314
9.2
151.
015
3.0
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-1
.80
1.63
1.76
1.54
1.43
1.66
1.72
1.49
1.31
1.21
1.29
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G…
……
……
……
……
……
…32
7.8
330.
533
4.6
336.
933
8.8
339.
534
0.4
341.
034
1.7
342.
234
2.8
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-7
.67
0.82
1.24
0.69
0.56
0.19
0.27
0.19
0.20
0.15
0.18
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
206.
420
8.2
210.
321
1.7
213.
221
3.8
214.
621
5.2
215.
821
6.3
216.
9Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-9.2
50.
881.
010.
660.
700.
280.
400.
280.
290.
240.
26
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…12
1.4
122.
312
4.3
125.
212
5.6
125.
712
5.8
125.
812
5.9
125.
912
5.9
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-4
.87
0.70
1.65
0.74
0.33
0.04
0.06
0.03
0.06
-0.0
20.
03
TRAD
E, T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, U
TILI
TIES
……
636.
964
8.2
651.
365
2.5
655.
665
8.9
661.
565
9.8
657.
165
4.3
652.
6Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-0.3
71.
770.
470.
180.
480.
500.
40-0
.25
-0.4
0-0
.43
-0.2
7
WH
OLE
SALE
TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
…11
8.2
121.
012
2.9
124.
312
5.8
127.
012
8.0
127.
512
7.3
127.
112
6.5
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-2
.24
2.33
1.56
1.14
1.26
0.92
0.76
-0.3
8-0
.17
-0.1
7-0
.45
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
336.
034
2.2
339.
633
6.6
335.
133
3.8
332.
533
0.7
328.
932
6.9
326.
1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
0.11
1.84
-0.7
5-0
.88
-0.4
6-0
.39
-0.3
8-0
.54
-0.5
4-0
.61
-0.2
4
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N &
UTI
LITI
ES…
……
…18
2.7
185.
118
8.8
191.
619
4.7
198.
120
1.0
201.
620
0.9
200.
319
9.9
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-0
.02
1.28
2.00
1.47
1.62
1.75
1.47
0.30
-0.3
3-0
.30
-0.1
9
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…43
.844
.345
.045
.345
.545
.745
.445
.245
.044
.844
.6Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-3.7
71.
211.
610.
610.
450.
35-0
.51
-0.5
1-0
.50
-0.3
1-0
.44
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
…17
4.2
176.
517
8.2
180.
618
3.1
185.
518
7.5
189.
019
0.0
190.
819
1.3
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…1.
111.
320.
931.
381.
351.
311.
110.
790.
550.
390.
28
PRO
FESS
ION
AL &
BU
SIN
ESS
SER
VIC
ES…
408.
841
8.8
435.
544
8.1
461.
747
6.1
490.
450
4.0
516.
552
7.5
538.
1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-4.2
22.
453.
992.
883.
033.
133.
012.
772.
482.
132.
01
EDU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
433.
744
1.3
452.
346
1.5
470.
348
0.8
490.
149
9.2
509.
151
9.8
530.
3Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-1.8
61.
742.
492.
031.
912.
241.
931.
861.
992.
102.
02
LEIS
UR
E &
HO
SPIT
ALIT
Y……
……
……
……
…30
4.4
331.
034
4.3
350.
635
6.3
361.
736
6.9
372.
537
7.8
383.
938
8.8
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-1
2.78
8.76
4.02
1.81
1.62
1.51
1.46
1.52
1.41
1.63
1.27
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
……
115.
511
9.4
122.
212
4.0
125.
912
7.1
128.
212
9.1
129.
512
9.9
130.
6Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-4.6
83.
322.
331.
531.
500.
940.
910.
670.
360.
280.
52
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…42
9.3
429.
743
4.8
439.
344
3.4
447.
145
0.9
454.
145
6.7
459.
646
4.3
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-1
.93
0.09
1.20
1.04
0.92
0.83
0.86
0.71
0.56
0.64
1.02
FED
ERAL
, CIV
ILIA
N…
……
……
……
……
…51
.550
.450
.650
.750
.951
.151
.351
.451
.551
.753
.8Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
2.90
-2.2
80.
380.
340.
400.
300.
440.
220.
200.
254.
14
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
…37
7.8
379.
338
4.3
388.
639
2.5
396.
039
9.6
402.
740
5.2
408.
041
0.5
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-2
.55
0.41
1.31
1.13
0.99
0.90
0.92
0.77
0.61
0.69
0.62
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Fore
cast
Dat
a
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 31
Tabl
e 6:
Ten
ness
ee D
urab
le G
oods
Man
ufac
turin
g Em
ploy
men
t (th
ousa
nds
of jo
bs)
Dec
embe
r 202
0
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TOTA
L D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
206.
420
8.2
210.
321
1.7
213.
221
3.8
214.
621
5.2
215.
821
6.3
216.
9Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
…-9
.25
0.88
1.01
0.66
0.70
0.28
0.40
0.28
0.29
0.24
0.26
WO
OD
PR
OD
UC
TS…
……
……
……
……
…12
.913
.112
.612
.612
.712
.712
.812
.912
.913
.113
.1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
…3.
081.
12-3
.36
-0.6
10.
880.
430.
870.
530.
260.
860.
62
NO
NM
ETAL
LIC
MIN
ERAL
S……
……
……
14.3
14.6
14.8
14.9
15.1
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
15.6
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
-0.1
52.
491.
320.
860.
810.
410.
480.
690.
780.
330.
84
PRIM
ARY
MET
ALS…
……
….…
……
……
…11
.812
.011
.611
.311
.211
.211
.311
.411
.611
.711
.9Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
…3.
821.
80-3
.08
-2.2
5-1
.24
0.04
0.75
1.23
1.19
1.28
1.44
FABR
ICAT
ED M
ETAL
S……
……
……
…...
37.8
37.8
37.5
37.2
37.0
37.3
37.4
37.3
37.5
37.3
37.4
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
-0.5
20.
04-0
.75
-0.9
8-0
.49
0.75
0.35
-0.1
40.
32-0
.36
0.21
MAC
HIN
ERY…
……
……
……
……
……
……
26.0
26.0
26.1
26.2
26.2
26.2
26.1
26.1
26.0
26.0
26.0
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
-1.9
8-0
.20
0.41
0.37
0.07
-0.2
5-0
.06
-0.2
5-0
.14
-0.0
9-0
.20
CO
MPU
TER
S &
ELEC
TRO
NIC
S……
……
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.9
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
0.54
3.07
-1.8
7-2
.08
0.24
0.72
0.41
0.74
0.92
0.84
0.70
ELEC
TRIC
AL E
QU
IPM
ENT,
APP
LIAN
CES
& C
OM
PON
ENTS
……
……
..……
……
……
17.6
17.3
17.0
16.6
16.4
16.3
16.2
16.2
16.1
16.0
16.0
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
0.29
-1.8
0-1
.98
-2.0
4-1
.28
-0.5
7-0
.41
-0.4
0-0
.39
-0.4
7-0
.48
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N E
QU
IPM
ENT…
……
53.4
55.0
58.3
60.5
62.3
62.6
63.1
63.4
63.6
64.0
64.1
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
-28.
952.
966.
013.
832.
940.
540.
700.
570.
350.
550.
25
FUR
NIT
UR
E……
……
……
……
……
……
…9.
99.
79.
79.
910
.010
.110
.110
.110
.110
.210
.2Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
…2.
11-2
.44
0.76
1.82
0.72
0.79
0.62
0.16
0.03
0.17
0.05
MIS
CEL
LAN
EOU
S D
UR
ABLE
S……
……
…17
.016
.916
.916
.816
.716
.616
.616
.716
.716
.816
.8Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
…2.
13-0
.28
-0.2
1-0
.44
-0.5
8-0
.62
0.06
0.26
0.23
0.18
0.15
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Fore
cast
Dat
a
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
32 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 7:
Ten
ness
ee N
ondu
rabl
e G
oods
Man
ufac
turin
g Em
ploy
men
t (th
ousa
nds
of jo
bs)
Dec
embe
r 202
0
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TOTA
L N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
…12
1.4
122.
312
4.3
125.
212
5.6
125.
712
5.7
125.
812
5.9
125.
812
5.9
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-4.8
70.
701.
650.
740.
310.
040.
060.
030.
06-0
.02
0.03
FOO
D…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…34
.034
.134
.835
.235
.435
.535
.635
.735
.835
.936
.1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-5
.20
0.22
2.26
0.88
0.58
0.34
0.31
0.27
0.38
0.33
0.41
BEVE
RAG
E &
TOBA
CC
O…
……
……
……
……
7.4
7.5
7.7
7.8
7.9
7.9
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.2
8.3
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
0.23
1.80
2.07
1.15
1.08
0.89
0.96
0.94
0.98
0.85
0.83
PAPE
R…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
12.6
12.7
12.6
12.4
12.4
12.3
12.2
12.1
12.0
11.9
11.8
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
0.41
0.08
-0.8
0-0
.91
-0.6
0-0
.84
-0.8
6-0
.70
-0.6
3-0
.75
-0.6
8
PRIN
TIN
G &
REL
ATED
SU
PPO
RT…
……
……
7.4
6.9
6.7
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.9
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-16.
75-7
.46
-1.5
6-1
.62
-1.5
9-1
.34
-1.9
7-1
.43
-1.5
6-1
.42
-1.6
1
CH
EMIC
ALS…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
25.9
26.0
26.3
26.5
26.5
26.4
26.2
26.1
25.9
25.7
25.5
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-0.0
60.
360.
990.
96-0
.09
-0.4
4-0
.57
-0.5
0-0
.78
-0.8
2-0
.75
PLAS
TIC
S &
RU
BBER
……
……
……
……
……
22.0
22.4
23.1
23.4
23.6
23.7
23.9
24.0
24.2
24.4
24.5
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-11.
561.
873.
311.
190.
840.
500.
860.
550.
730.
590.
55
MIS
CEL
LAN
EOU
S N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
12.1
12.8
13.1
13.3
13.4
13.4
13.5
13.6
13.6
13.7
13.7
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-0.3
45.
672.
321.
650.
810.
380.
460.
340.
420.
280.
45
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Fore
cast
Dat
a
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 33
Tabl
e 8:
Ten
ness
ee A
vera
ge A
nnua
l Wag
e an
d Sa
lary
Rat
e by
Sec
tor (
2012
dol
lars
)
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…48
068
4790
648
380
4918
550
042
5073
651
312
5191
752
563
5319
953
856
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…1.
52-0
.34
0.99
1.66
1.74
1.39
1.13
1.18
1.24
1.21
1.23
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
, MIN
ING
AN
D C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N…
……
……
……
……
…55
136
5526
255
425
5599
256
682
5717
157
399
5766
358
025
5833
858
730
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…0.
350.
230.
291.
021.
230.
860.
400.
460.
630.
540.
67M
ANU
FAC
TUR
ING
……
……
……
……
……
……
5674
257
576
5800
458
821
5962
760
264
6084
961
359
6190
462
429
6293
8Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
3.29
1.47
0.74
1.41
1.37
1.07
0.97
0.84
0.89
0.85
0.82
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
5788
158
649
5909
259
970
6086
261
560
6218
662
769
6336
663
932
6448
7Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
4.60
1.33
0.76
1.48
1.49
1.15
1.02
0.94
0.95
0.89
0.87
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…54
810
5578
356
203
5692
857
585
5811
558
620
5899
259
432
5986
960
284
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…1.
081.
780.
751.
291.
150.
920.
870.
640.
750.
740.
69TR
ADE,
TR
ANSP
OR
TATI
ON
, UTI
LITI
ES…
…42
433
4244
142
843
4335
443
842
4419
744
416
4459
944
724
4488
244
974
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-2
.05
0.02
0.95
1.19
1.12
0.81
0.50
0.41
0.28
0.35
0.21
WH
OLE
SALE
TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
…69
632
7001
170
378
7102
871
708
7221
472
516
7282
173
143
7339
473
687
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…2.
430.
540.
520.
920.
960.
710.
420.
420.
440.
340.
40R
ETAI
L TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
……
…28
302
2837
728
459
2854
928
595
2859
728
555
2851
028
435
2839
328
331
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-3
.46
0.27
0.29
0.32
0.16
0.01
-0.1
5-0
.16
-0.2
6-0
.15
-0.2
2TR
ANSP
OR
TATI
ON
& U
TILI
TIES
……
……
5080
950
418
5079
251
415
5207
052
520
5276
553
147
5338
753
707
5395
7Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-3.6
1-0
.77
0.74
1.23
1.28
0.86
0.47
0.72
0.45
0.60
0.47
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…68
815
6846
568
298
6859
068
931
6914
069
226
6928
769
268
6924
969
233
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…0.
94-0
.51
-0.2
40.
430.
500.
300.
120.
09-0
.03
-0.0
3-0
.02
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
…71
842
7111
071
889
7368
775
633
7696
078
156
7970
081
051
8238
583
682
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…4.
46-1
.02
1.09
2.50
2.64
1.76
1.55
1.98
1.70
1.65
1.57
PRO
FESS
ION
AL &
BU
SIN
ESS
SER
VIC
ES…
5970
860
094
6143
663
492
6572
067
583
6956
071
417
7350
875
775
7808
8Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
3.77
0.65
2.23
3.35
3.51
2.83
2.93
2.67
2.93
3.08
3.05
EDU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
4791
247
925
4831
148
957
4969
450
430
5066
151
205
5171
352
149
5248
9Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
0.81
0.03
0.80
1.34
1.50
1.48
0.46
1.07
0.99
0.84
0.65
LEIS
UR
E &
HO
SPIT
ALIT
Y……
……
……
……
…22
339
2187
922
315
2251
822
707
2285
222
928
2296
323
049
2316
023
248
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-8
.18
-2.0
61.
990.
910.
840.
640.
330.
160.
370.
480.
38O
THER
SER
VIC
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
…44
097
4367
544
081
4475
445
371
4579
846
116
4636
846
868
4725
847
646
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…4.
96-0
.96
0.93
1.53
1.38
0.94
0.69
0.55
1.08
0.83
0.82
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…44
133
4408
944
224
4444
844
664
4472
644
785
4481
144
878
4485
445
104
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…0.
61-0
.10
0.31
0.51
0.49
0.14
0.13
0.06
0.15
-0.0
50.
56FE
DER
AL, C
IVIL
IAN
……
……
……
……
……
7549
276
715
7743
478
047
7845
078
773
7905
679
357
7955
379
710
7985
6Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
1.17
1.62
0.94
0.79
0.52
0.41
0.36
0.38
0.25
0.20
0.18
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
…39
851
3975
739
855
4006
240
279
4033
440
385
4040
040
468
4044
140
550
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-0
.11
-0.2
40.
250.
520.
540.
140.
120.
040.
17-0
.07
0.27
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0Fo
reca
st D
ata
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2012 dollars)
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
34 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 9:
Ten
ness
ee A
vera
ge A
nnua
l Wag
e an
d Sa
lary
Rat
e by
Sec
tor (
curr
ent d
olla
rs)
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…53
463
5439
855
969
5780
859
822
6182
263
845
6602
068
316
7063
673
019
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…2.
791.
752.
893.
293.
483.
343.
273.
413.
483.
403.
37
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
, MIN
ING
AN
D C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N…
……
……
……
……
…61
326
6275
064
118
6580
967
759
6966
371
418
7332
575
415
7745
979
628
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…1.
612.
322.
182.
642.
962.
812.
522.
672.
852.
712.
80
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G…
……
……
……
……
……
…63
112
6537
867
102
6913
471
279
7343
275
711
7802
680
457
8289
085
333
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…4.
583.
592.
643.
033.
103.
023.
103.
063.
123.
022.
95
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
6437
966
597
6836
170
484
7275
675
011
7737
479
819
8235
784
886
8743
2Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
5.91
3.44
2.65
3.11
3.22
3.10
3.15
3.16
3.18
3.07
3.00
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…60
964
6334
265
019
6690
868
837
7081
372
937
7501
677
244
7949
281
733
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…2.
353.
902.
652.
912.
882.
873.
002.
852.
972.
912.
82
TRAD
E, T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, U
TILI
TIES
……
4719
548
193
4956
250
955
5240
953
854
5526
456
713
5812
759
592
6097
6Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-0.8
22.
112.
842.
812.
852.
762.
622.
622.
492.
522.
32
WH
OLE
SALE
TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
…77
448
7949
981
416
8348
085
720
8799
290
227
9260
095
063
9744
999
905
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…3.
722.
652.
412.
532.
682.
652.
542.
632.
662.
512.
52
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
3147
932
223
3292
333
554
3418
234
845
3552
836
253
3695
637
699
3841
2Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-2.2
52.
362.
171.
921.
871.
941.
962.
041.
942.
011.
89
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N &
UTI
LITI
ES…
……
…56
510
5725
058
759
6042
962
246
6399
565
652
6758
269
387
7130
973
156
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-2
.41
1.31
2.63
2.84
3.01
2.81
2.59
2.94
2.67
2.77
2.59
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…76
537
7774
279
010
8061
482
400
8424
686
133
8810
690
027
9194
493
866
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…2.
201.
571.
632.
032.
222.
242.
242.
292.
182.
132.
09
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
…79
904
8074
583
165
8660
790
414
9377
797
247
1013
5110
5344
1093
8911
3458
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…5.
761.
053.
004.
144.
403.
723.
704.
223.
943.
843.
72
PRO
FESS
ION
AL &
BU
SIN
ESS
SER
VIC
ES…
6640
968
237
7107
474
624
7856
582
352
8655
290
819
9554
210
0615
1058
77Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
5.06
2.75
4.16
5.00
5.28
4.82
5.10
4.93
5.20
5.31
5.23
EDU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
5328
954
419
5588
857
541
5940
561
449
6303
465
114
6721
169
241
7116
6Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
2.07
2.12
2.70
2.96
3.24
3.44
2.58
3.30
3.22
3.02
2.78
LEIS
UR
E &
HO
SPIT
ALIT
Y……
……
……
……
…24
843
2484
525
815
2646
627
145
2784
528
527
2920
029
957
3075
031
519
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-7
.04
0.01
3.90
2.52
2.57
2.58
2.45
2.36
2.59
2.65
2.50
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
……
4904
649
593
5099
552
600
5423
855
805
5737
958
962
6091
462
748
6459
9Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
6.27
1.12
2.83
3.15
3.11
2.89
2.82
2.76
3.31
3.01
2.95
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…49
088
5006
351
160
5224
053
391
5449
855
722
5698
258
327
5955
461
152
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…1.
871.
992.
192.
112.
202.
072.
252.
262.
362.
102.
68
FED
ERAL
, CIV
ILIA
N…
……
……
……
……
…83
966
8711
189
579
9173
093
780
9598
498
364
1009
1210
3394
1058
3410
8269
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…2.
443.
752.
832.
402.
232.
352.
482.
592.
462.
362.
30
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
…44
323
4514
446
106
4708
548
150
4914
750
247
5137
352
596
5369
554
978
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…1.
141.
852.
132.
122.
262.
072.
242.
242.
382.
092.
39
Dec
embe
r 202
0
Fore
cast
Dat
a
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars)
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 35
Tabl
e 10
: Te
nnes
see
Civ
ilian
Lab
or F
orce
and
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
CIV
ILIA
N L
ABO
R F
OR
CE
(TH
OU
S)…
……
…32
9433
4133
9534
3034
6134
8535
0435
2235
4035
5235
69Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
-1.4
71.
431.
601.
040.
900.
690.
550.
510.
500.
350.
48
EMPL
OYE
D P
ERSO
NS
(TH
OU
S)…
……
…30
5031
6732
4732
8733
2133
4633
6633
8534
0234
1334
30Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
-5.5
93.
832.
541.
221.
050.
750.
600.
560.
510.
320.
48
UN
EMPL
OYE
D P
ERSO
NS
(TH
OU
S)…
…24
517
514
814
314
013
913
813
713
713
813
9Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
115.
87-2
8.47
-15.
43-3
.00
-2.4
3-0
.64
-0.6
7-0
.85
0.15
0.91
0.47
PAR
TIC
IPAT
ION
RAT
E (P
ERC
ENT)
……
……
59.6
59.9
60.4
60.6
60.7
60.7
60.6
60.5
60.4
60.2
60.1
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
…-2
.29
0.61
0.80
0.28
0.16
-0.0
2-0
.14
-0.1
7-0
.16
-0.3
0-0
.15
UN
EMPL
OYM
ENT
RAT
E (P
ERC
ENT)
……
…7.
55.
24.
44.
24.
04.
03.
93.
93.
93.
93.
9
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Fore
cast
Dat
a
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Dec
embe
r 202
0
Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
36 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 11
: Te
nnes
see
Taxa
ble
Sale
s (m
illio
ns o
f 201
2 do
llars
)
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TOTA
L TA
XABL
E SA
LES…
……
……
……
……
……
1295
6313
2854
1361
1914
0021
1440
8814
7640
1512
2015
5237
1589
7016
2973
1674
19Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…0.
472.
542.
462.
872.
902.
472.
422.
662.
402.
522.
73
AUTO
DEA
LER
S……
……
……
……
……
……
…12
646
1257
912
573
1262
412
665
1268
512
695
1278
712
768
1283
112
895
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-0.2
0-0
.53
-0.0
50.
410.
320.
160.
090.
72-0
.15
0.50
0.50
PUR
CH
ASES
FR
OM
MAN
UFA
CTU
RER
S….
6095
6033
5983
6049
6153
6204
6288
6342
6401
6483
6513
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
3.85
-1.0
2-0
.82
1.09
1.72
0.82
1.36
0.86
0.93
1.27
0.47
MIS
C D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…23
451
2291
522
394
2299
923
663
2423
524
842
2565
426
527
2740
028
314
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
7.27
-2.2
8-2
.28
2.70
2.89
2.42
2.51
3.27
3.40
3.29
3.33
EATI
NG
AN
D D
RIN
KIN
G P
LAC
ES…
……
……
1177
512
507
1287
913
243
1365
914
026
1437
814
740
1506
815
391
1572
4Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-1
4.33
6.21
2.98
2.83
3.14
2.68
2.51
2.52
2.22
2.15
2.16
FOO
D S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
1304
112
504
1276
713
051
1327
713
440
1366
013
802
1391
714
081
1422
4Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…8.
47-4
.12
2.11
2.22
1.73
1.23
1.64
1.03
0.83
1.19
1.02
LIQ
UO
R S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
…11
8111
1410
4410
8011
2211
6011
9612
2812
6412
9913
36Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…22
.90
-5.6
6-6
.31
3.48
3.84
3.40
3.12
2.68
2.87
2.81
2.87
HO
TELS
AN
D M
OTE
LS…
……
……
……
……
…26
8735
2540
6441
6142
7044
0645
2146
0947
1348
5049
83Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-3
7.36
31.2
115
.27
2.41
2.61
3.18
2.61
1.95
2.27
2.90
2.74
OTH
ER R
ETAI
L AN
D S
ERVI
CE…
……
……
…42
399
4489
146
936
4910
851
308
5335
155
408
5772
859
842
6195
764
594
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
6.83
5.88
4.56
4.63
4.48
3.98
3.86
4.19
3.66
3.53
4.26
MIS
C N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
9280
9916
1011
210
361
1068
010
913
1111
711
326
1154
511
864
1211
5Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-5
.57
6.86
1.97
2.46
3.08
2.18
1.87
1.89
1.93
2.76
2.12
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, C
OM
MU
NIC
ATIO
N…
…70
0768
6973
6773
4472
9172
2271
1470
2169
2668
1767
21Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-1
2.63
-1.9
77.
26-0
.31
-0.7
3-0
.94
-1.4
9-1
.31
-1.3
5-1
.58
-1.4
0
PER
CAP
ITA
($)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
1881
419
136
1945
319
859
2028
620
638
2099
321
406
2177
722
183
2264
5Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-0
.37
1.71
1.65
2.09
2.15
1.74
1.72
1.97
1.73
1.86
2.08
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
Fore
cast
Dat
a
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2012 dollars)
Forecast Data | APPENDIX A
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 37
Tabl
e 12
: Te
nnes
see
Taxa
ble
Sale
s (m
illio
ns o
f cur
rent
dol
lars
)
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TOTA
L TA
XABL
E SA
LES…
……
……
……
……
……
1441
2415
0860
1574
7216
4572
1722
4817
9903
1881
6019
7409
2066
1821
6395
2269
97Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…1.
734.
674.
384.
514.
664.
444.
594.
924.
664.
734.
90
AUTO
DEA
LER
S……
……
……
……
……
……
…14
066
1428
414
545
1483
715
140
1545
615
796
1626
016
594
1703
717
483
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
1.05
1.54
1.83
2.01
2.04
2.09
2.20
2.94
2.05
2.67
2.62
PUR
CH
ASES
FR
OM
MAN
UFA
CTU
RER
S….
6781
6850
6922
7109
7355
7559
7824
8065
8319
8607
8830
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
5.16
1.03
1.05
2.71
3.46
2.77
3.50
3.08
3.16
3.46
2.59
MIS
C D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…26
087
2601
725
906
2703
228
288
2953
130
911
3262
334
478
3638
238
390
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
8.62
-0.2
7-0
.43
4.35
4.65
4.39
4.67
5.54
5.69
5.52
5.52
EATI
NG
AN
D D
RIN
KIN
G P
LAC
ES…
……
……
1310
114
202
1490
015
565
1632
917
091
1789
118
745
1958
420
437
2131
9Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-1
3.23
8.41
4.91
4.47
4.91
4.67
4.68
4.77
4.48
4.36
4.32
FOO
D S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
1450
314
198
1477
015
339
1587
116
376
1699
717
551
1808
718
697
1928
6Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…9.
81-2
.10
4.02
3.85
3.47
3.18
3.79
3.26
3.06
3.37
3.15
LIQ
UO
R S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
…13
1412
6512
0812
7013
4114
1414
8915
6216
4217
2518
12Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…24
.45
-3.7
5-4
.50
5.13
5.62
5.40
5.30
4.94
5.14
5.03
5.04
HO
TELS
AN
D M
OTE
LS…
……
……
……
……
…29
9040
0447
0148
9151
0453
6856
2558
6161
2664
4067
56Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-3
6.53
33.9
117
.40
4.04
4.36
5.17
4.78
4.19
4.53
5.12
4.91
OTH
ER R
ETAI
L AN
D S
ERVI
CE…
……
……
…47
165
5097
754
300
5771
961
337
6501
168
944
7341
277
780
8226
887
582
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
8.17
8.08
6.52
6.30
6.27
5.99
6.05
6.48
5.95
5.77
6.46
MIS
C N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
1032
511
260
1169
812
177
1276
713
297
1383
214
403
1500
515
752
1642
7Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-4
.37
9.06
3.89
4.10
4.84
4.15
4.02
4.13
4.18
4.98
4.28
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, C
OM
MU
NIC
ATIO
N…
…77
9278
0185
2386
3187
1588
0088
5289
2890
0290
5091
12Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-1
1.56
0.11
9.26
1.27
0.97
0.97
0.59
0.86
0.83
0.54
0.68
PER
CAP
ITA
($)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
2092
921
729
2250
423
341
2425
025
148
2612
127
221
2830
529
454
3070
4Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…0.
883.
823.
573.
723.
903.
703.
874.
213.
984.
064.
24
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
Fore
cast
Dat
a
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars)
APPENDIX A | Forecast Data
38 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 13
: Ten
ness
ee G
ross
Dom
estic
Pro
duct
by
Sect
or (m
illio
ns o
f 201
2 do
llars
)D
ecem
ber 2
020
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GR
OSS
DO
MES
TIC
PR
OD
UC
T....
......
......
......
......
......
...31
7,22
132
6,55
933
8,28
834
6,63
735
4,39
036
2,18
736
9,85
237
7,39
138
4,67
139
1,88
540
0,01
5
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
-3.5
22.
943.
592.
472.
242.
202.
122.
041.
931.
882.
07
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
& M
ININ
G...
......
......
......
......
2,65
62,
598
2,62
92,
619
2,60
52,
597
2,59
12,
579
2,56
32,
544
2,52
7
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
-7.8
7-2
.17
1.20
-0.4
1-0
.52
-0.2
9-0
.24
-0.4
6-0
.64
-0.7
4-0
.66
C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N...
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
....
11,5
2611
,601
11,7
0511
,783
11,8
4911
,943
12,0
4412
,130
12,2
3212
,316
12,4
05
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
0.50
0.65
0.89
0.67
0.56
0.79
0.85
0.71
0.84
0.69
0.72
M
ANU
FAC
TUR
ING
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
.....
47,1
2748
,514
50,2
6051
,299
52,3
9953
,529
54,6
5555
,882
57,1
0258
,397
59,7
38
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
-4.3
22.
943.
602.
072.
152.
162.
102.
242.
182.
272.
30
D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S....
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
...27
,097
28,0
6429
,448
30,1
6930
,954
31,7
6332
,589
33,4
9834
,407
35,3
5336
,368
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
…-5
.93
3.57
4.93
2.45
2.60
2.61
2.60
2.79
2.71
2.75
2.87
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
……
……
20,0
3020
,450
20,8
1221
,129
21,4
4621
,766
22,0
6622
,384
22,6
9523
,044
23,3
70
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
-2.0
62.
101.
771.
521.
501.
491.
381.
441.
391.
541.
42
TR
ADE…
……
…...
......
......
......
……
......
......
......
……
....
60,5
2762
,573
64,4
2565
,668
67,1
0868
,541
69,9
2370
,796
71,6
3572
,479
73,3
86
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
0.80
3.39
2.26
1.94
2.21
2.15
2.03
1.25
1.20
1.19
1.26
W
HO
LESA
LE T
RAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
21,0
4522
,059
22,7
1523
,530
24,4
0525
,228
26,0
3526
,566
27,1
6427
,775
28,3
20
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
-3.1
64.
822.
973.
593.
723.
373.
202.
042.
252.
251.
96
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…23
,661
24,5
6225
,451
25,7
1626
,094
26,4
9326
,901
27,2
7327
,649
28,0
1128
,484
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
…-1
.82
3.81
3.62
1.04
1.47
1.53
1.54
1.38
1.38
1.31
1.69
T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N &
UTI
LITI
ES…
……
……
……
…15
,822
15,9
5116
,259
16,4
2216
,609
16,8
2016
,986
16,9
5816
,822
16,6
9216
,582
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
…-2
.19
0.82
1.93
1.00
1.14
1.27
0.99
-0.1
7-0
.80
-0.7
7-0
.66
IN
FOR
MAT
ION
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…12
,198
12,5
0512
,779
12,9
9813
,199
13,3
5113
,574
13,7
9813
,965
14,1
6914
,425
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
…-0
.79
2.52
2.19
1.71
1.55
1.15
1.67
1.65
1.21
1.46
1.81
F
INAN
CIA
L AC
TIVI
TIES
……
……
……
……
……
……
…53
,947
54,4
3855
,347
56,1
5057
,149
57,9
6758
,645
59,5
3060
,459
61,1
7262
,249
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
…2.
620.
911.
671.
451.
781.
431.
171.
511.
561.
181.
76
PR
OFE
SSIO
NAL
& B
USI
NES
S SE
RVI
CES
……
……
…39
,949
41,6
1944
,000
46,0
1948
,205
50,5
3852
,924
55,2
9557
,606
59,8
1262
,031
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
…-2
.89
4.18
5.72
4.59
4.75
4.84
4.72
4.48
4.18
3.83
3.71
E
DU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
35,1
2136
,277
37,6
0838
,672
39,7
2040
,928
42,0
4543
,332
44,5
4145
,833
47,1
25
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
-3.6
23.
293.
672.
832.
713.
042.
733.
062.
792.
902.
82
LEI
SUR
E &
HO
SPIT
ALIT
Y……
……
……
……
……
……
11,8
3413
,564
16,0
3217
,545
17,9
1918
,281
18,6
4119
,019
19,3
8419
,799
20,1
52
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
-33.
4714
.62
18.1
99.
442.
132.
021.
972.
031.
922.
141.
78
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…7,
607
7,82
38,
200
8,20
38,
203
8,15
98,
112
8,04
77,
957
7,86
27,
786
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
…-3
.06
2.84
4.82
0.04
0.00
-0.5
4-0
.57
-0.8
1-1
.12
-1.1
9-0
.96
G
OVE
RN
MEN
T……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…34
,729
35,0
4635
,303
35,6
8136
,033
36,3
5436
,698
36,9
8337
,229
37,5
0338
,191
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
…-1
.05
0.91
0.74
1.07
0.98
0.89
0.95
0.78
0.66
0.74
1.84
FED
ERAL
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
...…
……
……
…10
,267
10,4
0610
,506
10,5
8110
,664
10,7
3610
,824
10,8
8910
,953
11,0
2211
,522
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
…2.
181.
350.
960.
720.
780.
680.
820.
600.
580.
634.
54
S
TATE
& L
OC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
24,4
6124
,640
24,7
9825
,100
25,3
6925
,617
25,8
7326
,093
26,2
7626
,481
26,6
69
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
-2.3
40.
730.
641.
221.
070.
981.
000.
850.
700.
780.
71
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Fore
cast
Dat
a
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars)
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 39
APPENDIX B: HISTORICAL DATAIn this Section—
Appendix B: Historical Data
Quarterly Pages 4o–63 (2017:2 to 2020:3) Annual Pages 64–76 (2008 to 2019)
Quarterly History TablesTable 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted ...............................................................40Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted .............................................42Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2012 dollars) ..............43Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars) ..........45Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ....................................46Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) .................47Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ..........48Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ...........................................49Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ........................50Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs) ...............51Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars) ................52Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars) .......................53Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars) ............55Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars) ...................56Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted ............................................58Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted ...................................................59Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars) .......................................................60Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars) ..............................................................61Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars) ....................................................62Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars) ...........................................................63
Annual History TablesTable 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted ...............................................................64Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators .................................................................................65Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2012 dollars) .........................................................................66Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars) .....................................................................67Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector (thousands of jobs) ..............................................................................68Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs) ...........................................................69Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs) .....................................................70Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2012 dollars) ............................................................71Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars) ........................................................72Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate .......................................................................................73Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2012 dollars) ..................................................................................................74Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars) ..............................................................................................75Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars) ...............................................................76
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
40 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 1:
Sel
ecte
d U
.S. a
nd T
enne
ssee
Eco
nom
ic In
dica
tors
, Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
US
GD
P (B
il201
2$) S
AAR
……
……
……
……
…18
054.
118
185.
618
359.
418
530.
518
654.
418
752.
418
813.
918
950.
319
020.
619
141.
719
254.
019
010.
817
302.
518
584.
018
144.
118
687.
819
091.
7%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
1.72
2.95
3.88
3.78
2.70
2.12
1.32
2.93
1.49
2.57
2.37
-4.9
6-3
1.38
33.0
82.
333.
002.
16%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
2.18
2.37
2.70
3.08
3.33
3.12
2.48
2.27
1.96
2.08
2.34
0.32
-9.0
3-2
.91
2.33
3.00
2.16
US
GD
P (B
il$) S
AAR
……
……
……
……
……
…19
379.
219
617.
319
938.
020
242.
220
552.
720
742.
720
909.
921
115.
321
329.
921
540.
321
747.
421
561.
119
520.
121
157.
619
543.
020
611.
921
433.
2%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
2.98
5.00
6.70
6.25
6.28
3.75
3.26
3.99
4.13
4.01
3.90
-3.3
8-3
2.82
38.0
24.
265.
473.
98%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
3.88
4.23
4.76
5.22
6.06
5.74
4.87
4.31
3.78
3.85
4.01
2.11
-8.4
8-1
.78
4.26
5.47
3.98
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E (M
IL20
12$)
SAA
R…
2854
1828
6736
2896
3829
1815
2936
9329
7255
2986
0730
1754
3023
0330
2804
3037
5330
6492
3192
1931
0707
2863
1829
5343
3026
54%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
2.77
1.86
4.11
3.04
2.60
4.94
1.83
4.28
0.73
0.66
1.26
3.66
17.6
7-1
0.25
2.82
3.15
2.48
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…3.
172.
803.
022.
942.
903.
673.
103.
412.
931.
871.
721.
575.
602.
612.
823.
152.
48
US
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
(BIL
2012
$) S
AAR
…15
928
1606
016
198
1632
716
423
1656
816
652
1684
416
843
1689
016
974
1709
118
469
1781
715
991
1649
216
888
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
…3.
843.
353.
503.
212.
393.
582.
044.
69-0
.02
1.13
1.99
2.80
36.3
7-1
3.39
3.03
3.14
2.40
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…3.
053.
363.
623.
473.
113.
172.
803.
172.
561.
951.
931.
479.
665.
493.
033.
142.
40
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E (M
IL$)
SAA
R…
……
3015
5630
4181
3092
6131
3658
3174
2632
2525
3251
5032
9038
3317
0533
3412
3357
3533
9845
3525
2934
6641
3034
6131
9690
3324
73%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
3.68
3.53
6.85
5.81
4.89
6.58
3.30
4.87
3.28
2.07
2.82
4.99
15.7
9-6
.52
4.66
5.35
4.00
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…4.
874.
494.
924.
965.
266.
035.
144.
904.
503.
383.
263.
286.
283.
974.
665.
354.
00
US
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
(BIL
$) S
AAR
……
…16
828
1703
717
296
1754
917
750
1797
718
132
1836
718
481
1859
818
761
1895
120
397
1985
616
949
1785
218
552
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
…4.
765.
046.
225.
984.
685.
203.
505.
282.
512.
553.
564.
1234
.19
-10.
194.
885.
333.
92%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
4.75
5.06
5.52
5.50
5.48
5.52
4.84
4.66
4.12
3.45
3.47
3.18
10.3
76.
774.
885.
333.
92
TN N
ON
FAR
M J
OBS
(TH
OU
S)…
……
……
……
3006
.930
17.4
3028
.530
42.3
3057
.230
70.5
3083
.331
06.5
3116
.231
28.0
3141
.331
52.0
2858
.729
84.2
3012
.430
63.3
3123
.0%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
1.38
1.41
1.48
1.83
1.97
1.75
1.68
3.05
1.25
1.53
1.71
1.37
-32.
3518
.76
1.59
1.69
1.95
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…1.
711.
401.
411.
521.
671.
761.
812.
111.
931.
871.
881.
47-8
.26
-4.6
01.
591.
691.
95
US
NO
NFA
RM
JO
BS (M
IL)…
……
……
……
……
146.
314
6.9
147.
414
8.0
148.
614
9.2
149.
715
0.2
150.
615
1.2
151.
815
1.9
133.
714
0.8
146.
614
8.9
150.
9%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
1.44
1.48
1.46
1.67
1.76
1.53
1.31
1.30
1.14
1.47
1.67
0.35
-39.
9922
.91
1.57
1.57
1.37
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…1.
631.
501.
481.
511.
591.
611.
571.
471.
321.
301.
401.
16-1
1.22
-6.8
61.
571.
571.
37
TN M
FG J
OBS
(TH
OU
S)…
……
……
……
……
…34
6.9
346.
234
6.2
347.
634
9.8
351.
735
2.9
354.
935
6.7
355.
835
2.9
352.
930
6.7
324.
334
6.2
350.
535
5.1
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
…1.
43-0
.75
0.00
1.57
2.57
2.17
1.42
2.27
2.03
-0.9
5-3
.25
0.04
-42.
9925
.02
1.34
1.22
1.31
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…1.
600.
930.
630.
560.
841.
571.
932.
111.
971.
180.
00-0
.55
-14.
02-8
.86
1.34
1.22
1.31
US
MFG
JO
BS (M
IL)…
……
……
……
……
……
12.4
12.4
12.5
12.6
12.7
12.7
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
11.8
12.1
12.4
12.7
12.8
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
…0.
821.
342.
152.
262.
351.
991.
981.
350.
150.
500.
00-0
.44
-29.
5013
.68
0.70
2.00
1.19
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…0.
520.
771.
361.
642.
022.
192.
151.
921.
370.
990.
500.
05-8
.35
-5.4
90.
702.
001.
19
TN U
NEM
PLO
YMEN
T R
ATE
(%)…
……
……
…3.
83.
53.
53.
63.
63.
53.
43.
43.
53.
43.
33.
412
.18.
23.
83.
53.
4
US
UN
EMPL
OYM
ENT
RAT
E (%
)……
……
……
4.4
4.3
4.1
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.8
13.0
8.8
4.4
3.9
3.7
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
(CO
NTI
NU
ED O
N N
EXT
PAG
E)
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 41
Tabl
e 1:
Sel
ecte
d U
.S. a
nd T
enne
ssee
Eco
nom
ic In
dica
tors
, Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
CH
AIN
ED P
RIC
E IN
DEX
, GD
P((
2012
=100
.0)…
……
……
......
......
......
......
.....
107.
410
8.0
108.
610
9.3
110.
211
0.7
111.
211
1.5
112.
211
2.6
113.
011
3.4
112.
911
3.9
107.
811
0.3
112.
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
1.27
2.25
2.50
2.43
3.23
1.85
1.78
1.22
2.48
1.51
1.38
1.39
-1.8
23.
591.
912.
391.
81%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
1.68
1.91
2.00
2.11
2.61
2.50
2.32
2.02
1.83
1.74
1.65
1.69
0.61
1.12
1.91
2.39
1.81
US
PER
S C
ON
SUM
P D
EFL
(201
2=10
0.0)
……
105.
710
6.1
106.
810
7.5
108.
110
8.5
108.
910
9.0
109.
711
0.1
110.
511
0.9
110.
411
1.4
106.
010
8.2
109.
9%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
0.89
1.64
2.63
2.69
2.24
1.56
1.44
0.56
2.53
1.40
1.54
1.28
-1.6
03.
701.
792.
131.
49%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
1.65
1.65
1.84
1.96
2.30
2.28
1.98
1.45
1.52
1.48
1.51
1.69
0.65
1.21
1.79
2.13
1.49
CO
NSU
MER
PR
ICE
IND
EX,
ALL-
UR
BAN
(82-
84=1
.000
)……
……
……
…2.
441
2.45
42.
473
2.49
22.
506
2.51
92.
527
2.53
32.
552
2.56
32.
578
2.58
62.
563
2.59
52.
451
2.51
12.
557
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
…0.
382.
163.
123.
252.
192.
081.
300.
923.
031.
822.
371.
21-3
.53
5.16
2.14
2.44
1.81
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…1.
911.
982.
122.
222.
682.
662.
201.
621.
831.
762.
032.
110.
441.
252.
142.
441.
81
BAN
K PR
IME
INTE
RES
T R
ATE
(%)…
……
……
4.0
4.3
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.3
4.8
4.4
3.3
3.3
4.1
4.9
5.3
FED
ERAL
FU
ND
S R
ATE
(% p
er a
nnum
)……
…0.
950
1.15
31.
203
1.44
71.
737
1.92
32.
220
2.40
32.
397
2.19
01.
643
1.26
00.
060
0.09
31.
002
1.83
22.
158
30-Y
EAR
FIX
ED M
OR
TGAG
E R
ATE
(%)…
……
4.0
3.9
3.9
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.4
4.0
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.2
2.9
4.0
4.5
3.9
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
(MIL
2012
$)…
……
……
…29
444
2992
530
187
3063
630
809
3086
331
220
3165
332
152
3229
532
856
3161
031
443
3320
711
8169
1235
2812
8957
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
…12
.13
6.69
3.56
6.08
2.28
0.70
4.72
5.66
6.45
1.80
7.13
-14.
33-2
.10
24.4
02.
994.
544.
39%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
2.97
4.59
4.88
7.07
4.64
3.13
3.42
3.32
4.36
4.64
5.24
-0.1
4-2
.21
2.82
2.99
4.54
4.39
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
(MIL
$)…
……
……
……
…31
109
3174
532
233
3292
933
299
3348
633
996
3451
535
279
3556
036
315
3505
034
724
3704
712
5251
1337
1014
1670
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
…13
.12
8.44
6.28
8.93
4.57
2.27
6.22
6.26
9.15
3.22
8.77
-13.
23-3
.67
29.5
74.
856.
755.
95%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
4.67
6.31
6.80
9.17
7.04
5.48
5.47
4.82
5.95
6.19
6.82
1.55
-1.5
74.
184.
856.
755.
95
TN A
VG A
NN
UAL
WAG
E, N
ON
FAR
M (2
012$
)……
……
…...
......
......
......
......
......
....
4628
146
411
4683
346
805
4665
947
200
4716
847
511
4751
647
261
4710
747
644
4859
448
052
4642
346
958
4734
9%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
0.99
1.13
3.68
-0.2
4-1
.24
4.72
-0.2
72.
940.
05-2
.13
-1.3
04.
638.
23-4
.39
1.04
1.15
0.83
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…1.
481.
151.
061.
380.
821.
700.
721.
511.
840.
13-0
.13
0.28
2.27
1.67
1.04
1.15
0.83
TN A
VG A
NN
UAL
WAG
E, N
ON
FAR
M ($
)……
4889
749
235
5000
650
308
5042
951
212
5136
151
807
5213
852
039
5206
752
828
5366
553
609
4920
250
828
5201
2%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
……
1.88
2.79
6.41
2.44
0.97
6.35
1.17
3.52
2.58
-0.7
60.
225.
976.
49-0
.42
2.85
3.30
2.33
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…3.
152.
822.
923.
373.
134.
022.
712.
983.
391.
611.
381.
972.
933.
022.
853.
302.
33
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
42 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 2:
Sel
ecte
d Pe
r Cap
ita U
.S. a
nd T
enne
ssee
Eco
nom
ic In
dica
tors
, Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
US
GD
P (2
012$
) SAA
R…
……
……
……
.……
…55
516
5582
856
289
5675
557
060
5727
557
399
5776
157
906
5818
558
457
5766
252
414
5621
055
750
5712
358
078
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
1.09
2.27
3.34
3.36
2.17
1.52
0.86
2.55
1.00
1.94
1.88
-5.3
3-3
1.73
32.2
71.
712.
461.
67%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
541.
762.
122.
512.
782.
591.
971.
771.
481.
591.
84-0
.17
-9.4
8-3
.39
1.71
2.46
1.67
US
GD
P ($
) SAA
R…
……
……
……
……
……
…59
591
6022
361
129
6199
862
867
6335
563
793
6436
064
936
6547
666
027
6539
759
131
6399
460
048
6300
465
201
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
2.35
4.32
6.15
5.81
5.72
3.14
2.80
3.61
3.63
3.37
3.41
-3.7
6-3
3.16
37.1
83.
624.
923.
49%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…3.
223.
604.
164.
655.
505.
204.
363.
813.
293.
353.
501.
61-8
.94
-2.2
63.
624.
923.
49
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E (2
012$
) SAA
R…
….
4254
442
740
4317
343
104
4338
143
908
4410
744
189
4427
044
343
4448
244
507
4635
545
119
4267
843
625
4432
1%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
…2.
771.
864.
11-0
.64
2.60
4.94
1.83
0.74
0.73
0.66
1.26
0.22
17.6
7-1
0.25
1.85
2.22
1.60
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
2.19
1.82
2.04
2.01
1.97
2.73
2.16
2.52
2.05
0.99
0.85
0.72
4.71
1.75
1.85
2.22
1.60
US
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
(201
2$) S
AAR
……
4897
849
301
4966
350
005
5023
550
604
5080
251
340
5127
551
341
5153
351
839
5594
853
891
4913
450
412
5137
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
…3.
202.
672.
962.
791.
852.
971.
584.
31-0
.50
0.52
1.50
2.39
35.6
8-1
3.92
2.40
2.60
1.91
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
2.40
2.74
3.03
2.91
2.57
2.64
2.29
2.67
2.07
1.46
1.44
0.97
9.11
4.97
2.40
2.60
1.91
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E ($
) SAA
R…
……
……
4494
945
341
4609
846
330
4688
747
640
4802
848
185
4857
548
825
4916
649
350
5119
250
337
4523
347
221
4868
8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
…3.
683.
536.
852.
034.
896.
583.
301.
313.
282.
072.
821.
5115
.79
-6.5
23.
674.
403.
11%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…3.
873.
503.
924.
014.
315.
074.
194.
003.
602.
492.
372.
425.
393.
103.
674.
403.
11
US
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
($) S
AAR
……
……
.51
747
5230
153
027
5374
854
295
5490
655
318
5598
356
263
5653
156
959
5748
061
787
6005
752
077
5456
856
434
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
4.12
4.35
5.67
5.55
4.13
4.58
3.04
4.89
2.02
1.92
3.06
3.71
33.5
1-1
0.74
4.23
4.78
3.42
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
4.09
4.43
4.92
4.92
4.92
4.98
4.32
4.16
3.62
2.96
2.97
2.68
9.82
6.24
4.23
4.78
3.42
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
(201
2$)…
……
……
……
4389
4461
4500
4525
4551
4559
4612
4635
4708
4729
4811
4590
4566
4822
1761
418
246
1888
5%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
…12
.13
6.69
3.56
2.29
2.28
0.70
4.72
2.08
6.45
1.80
7.13
-17.
16-2
.10
24.4
02.
013.
593.
50%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
993.
593.
886.
103.
692.
202.
492.
433.
463.
744.
33-0
.97
-3.0
31.
962.
013.
593.
50
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
($)…
……
……
……
……
4637
4732
4805
4864
4919
4946
5022
5054
5166
5207
5318
5090
5042
5380
1867
019
750
2074
6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
…13
.12
8.44
6.28
5.04
4.57
2.27
6.22
2.65
9.15
3.22
8.77
-16.
10-3
.67
29.5
73.
855.
795.
04%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…3.
675.
305.
798.
186.
074.
534.
523.
925.
045.
285.
910.
70-2
.40
3.31
3.85
5.79
5.04
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 43
Tabl
e 3:
Ten
ness
ee P
erso
nal I
ncom
e C
ompo
nent
s, S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d An
nual
Rat
es (m
illio
ns o
f 201
2 do
llars
)
2017
:120
17:2
2017
:320
17:4
2018
:120
18:2
2018
:320
18:4
2019
:120
19:2
2019
:320
19:4
2020
:120
20:2
2017
2018
2019
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E……
……
..……
…28
3478
2854
1828
6736
2896
3829
1815
2936
9329
7255
2986
0730
1754
3023
0330
2804
3037
5330
6492
3192
1928
6318
2953
4330
2654
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
3.37
2.77
1.86
4.11
3.04
2.60
4.94
1.83
4.28
0.73
0.66
1.26
3.66
17.6
72.
823.
152.
48%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
…2.
303.
172.
803.
022.
942.
903.
673.
103.
412.
931.
871.
721.
575.
602.
823.
152.
48
WAG
ES A
ND
SAL
ARIE
S……
……
……
1392
0714
0017
1409
0014
2697
1432
6414
3514
1458
0614
6312
1484
3814
8914
1486
8014
8843
1510
3013
9763
1407
0514
4724
1487
19%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
…-0
.15
2.35
2.55
5.20
1.60
0.70
6.54
1.40
5.94
1.29
-0.6
30.
446.
01-2
6.66
2.62
2.86
2.76
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
2.30
3.19
2.54
2.47
2.91
2.50
3.48
2.53
3.61
3.76
1.97
1.73
1.75
-6.1
52.
622.
862.
76
OTH
ER L
ABO
R IN
CO
ME…
……
……
…30
225
3058
930
821
3128
831
385
3170
132
126
3227
932
442
3255
132
549
3250
732
699
3098
530
731
3187
332
512
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
0.29
4.90
3.07
6.20
1.26
4.08
5.48
1.91
2.04
1.35
-0.0
3-0
.50
2.38
-19.
383.
203.
722.
01%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
…1.
993.
753.
453.
593.
843.
644.
243.
173.
372.
681.
310.
710.
79-4
.81
3.20
3.72
2.01
PRO
PRIE
TOR
S IN
CO
ME…
……
……
…39
880
3943
439
278
3963
539
918
4032
140
758
4119
841
450
4127
642
033
4238
942
398
3383
439
557
4054
941
787
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
9.19
-4.4
0-1
.57
3.68
2.88
4.10
4.41
4.38
2.47
-1.6
77.
543.
430.
08-5
9.45
1.95
2.51
3.05
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
2.88
2.14
1.19
1.59
0.09
2.25
3.77
3.94
3.84
2.37
3.13
2.89
2.29
-18.
031.
952.
513.
05
REN
T, IN
TER
EST,
DIV
IDEN
DS…
……
…41
874
4283
543
344
4387
544
409
4488
245
317
4546
744
889
4500
444
850
4488
744
824
4400
442
982
4501
944
907
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
11.1
29.
504.
844.
984.
964.
333.
931.
33-4
.99
1.03
-1.3
70.
33-0
.56
-7.1
27.
064.
74-0
.25
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
5.54
7.40
7.72
7.57
6.05
4.78
4.55
3.63
1.08
0.27
-1.0
3-1
.28
-0.1
5-2
.22
7.06
4.74
-0.2
5
TRAN
SFER
PAY
MEN
TS…
……
……
……
5607
756
522
5650
156
526
5738
557
804
5816
458
363
6003
560
213
6029
560
710
6159
295
256
5640
757
929
6031
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
…4.
393.
21-0
.15
0.17
6.22
2.95
2.51
1.38
11.9
61.
190.
552.
785.
9447
2.13
1.15
2.70
4.12
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
0.33
1.24
1.14
1.89
2.33
2.27
2.94
3.25
4.62
4.17
3.67
4.02
2.59
58.2
01.
152.
704.
12
LESS
: PE
RS
CO
NT
FOR
SO
C IN
S……
2213
622
295
2240
922
621
2272
722
698
2301
023
103
2355
123
670
2363
823
652
2404
422
818
2236
522
885
2362
8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
…3.
662.
912.
063.
841.
89-0
.51
5.61
1.63
7.97
2.04
-0.5
30.
236.
79-1
8.88
3.72
2.32
3.25
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
3.49
4.57
3.74
3.11
2.67
1.81
2.68
2.13
3.62
4.28
2.73
2.37
2.09
-3.6
03.
722.
323.
25
RES
IDEN
CE
ADJU
STM
ENT…
……
……
-165
0-1
683
-169
9-1
761
-181
8-1
830
-190
6-1
908
-194
9-1
986
-196
5-1
931
-200
7-1
805
-169
8-1
866
-195
8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
…-3
.98
8.39
3.83
15.3
813
.62
2.58
17.6
70.
528.
897.
75-4
.26
-6.6
716
.64
-34.
477.
179.
844.
94%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
…6.
739.
676.
745.
6710
.21
8.70
12.1
68.
367.
218.
543.
081.
192.
94-9
.10
7.17
9.84
4.94
PER
CAP
ITA
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
($)…
…42
255
4254
442
740
4317
343
104
4338
143
908
4410
744
189
4427
044
343
4448
244
507
4635
542
678
4362
544
321
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
-0.5
02.
771.
864.
11-0
.64
2.60
4.94
1.83
0.74
0.73
0.66
1.26
0.22
17.6
71.
852.
221.
60%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
…1.
322.
191.
822.
042.
011.
972.
732.
162.
522.
050.
990.
850.
724.
711.
852.
221.
60
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2012 dollars)
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
44 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 4:
Ten
ness
ee P
erso
nal I
ncom
e C
ompo
nent
s, S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d An
nual
Rat
es (m
illio
ns o
f cur
rent
dol
lars
)
2017
:120
17:2
2017
:320
17:4
2018
:120
18:2
2018
:320
18:4
2019
:120
19:2
2019
:320
19:4
2020
:120
20:2
2017
2018
2019
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E……
……
..……
……
2988
4630
1556
3041
8130
9261
3136
5831
7426
3225
2532
5150
3290
3833
1705
3334
1233
5735
3398
4535
2529
3034
6131
9690
3324
73%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
5.66
3.68
3.53
6.85
5.81
4.89
6.58
3.30
4.87
3.28
2.07
2.82
4.99
15.7
94.
665.
354.
00%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
4.37
4.87
4.49
4.92
4.96
5.26
6.03
5.14
4.90
4.50
3.38
3.26
3.28
6.28
4.66
5.35
4.00
WAG
ES A
ND
SAL
ARIE
S……
……
……
…14
6753
1479
3314
9472
1523
6515
3987
1551
1115
8201
1593
1816
1860
1633
9816
3709
1645
1416
7465
1543
4714
9131
1566
5416
3370
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
…2.
053.
264.
237.
974.
332.
958.
212.
856.
543.
860.
761.
987.
37-2
7.84
4.46
5.04
4.29
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…4.
374.
894.
234.
354.
934.
855.
844.
565.
115.
343.
483.
263.
46-5
.54
4.46
5.04
4.29
OTH
ER L
ABO
R IN
CO
ME…
……
……
……
3186
432
318
3269
633
407
3373
534
263
3485
735
148
3537
535
717
3583
935
930
3625
734
218
3257
134
501
3571
5%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
2.50
5.83
4.76
8.99
3.98
6.41
7.13
3.37
2.62
3.92
1.37
1.03
3.69
-20.
675.
045.
923.
52%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
4.06
5.46
5.15
5.49
5.87
6.02
6.61
5.21
4.86
4.24
2.81
2.23
2.49
-4.2
05.
045.
923.
52
PRO
PRIE
TOR
S IN
CO
ME…
……
……
……
4204
241
664
4166
842
320
4290
543
579
4422
344
860
4519
845
290
4628
246
852
4701
237
365
4192
343
892
4590
6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
11.6
0-3
.55
0.04
6.41
5.65
6.43
6.05
5.89
3.05
0.82
9.05
5.02
1.37
-60.
103.
774.
704.
59%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
4.96
3.83
2.86
3.46
2.05
4.60
6.13
6.00
5.34
3.93
4.66
4.44
4.01
-17.
503.
774.
704.
59
REN
T, IN
TER
EST,
DIV
IDEN
DS…
……
…44
144
4525
745
981
4684
747
733
4850
949
169
4950
948
948
4938
249
383
4961
349
701
4859
545
558
4873
049
331
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
…13
.57
10.4
76.
557.
757.
786.
665.
562.
79-4
.45
3.59
0.01
1.87
0.72
-8.6
18.
986.
961.
23%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
7.68
9.16
9.50
9.55
8.13
7.18
6.93
5.68
2.54
1.80
0.44
0.21
1.54
-1.5
98.
986.
961.
23
TRAN
SFER
PAY
MEN
TS…
……
……
……
5911
759
718
5993
960
355
6168
062
475
6310
863
551
6546
466
070
6639
067
102
6829
410
5197
5978
262
703
6625
6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
6.69
4.13
1.49
2.81
9.07
5.25
4.12
2.84
12.5
93.
751.
964.
367.
3046
2.96
2.96
4.89
5.67
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…2.
372.
902.
803.
764.
344.
625.
295.
296.
135.
755.
205.
594.
3259
.22
2.96
4.89
5.67
LESS
: PE
RS
CO
NT
FOR
SO
C IN
S……
2333
623
556
2377
224
154
2442
824
532
2496
625
157
2568
025
972
2602
826
142
2666
025
200
2370
424
771
2595
6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
5.95
3.82
3.73
6.57
4.63
1.71
7.26
3.09
8.58
4.62
0.86
1.77
8.16
-20.
185.
584.
504.
78%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
5.59
6.29
5.45
5.01
4.68
4.15
5.02
4.15
5.12
5.87
4.25
3.92
3.82
-2.9
75.
584.
504.
78
RES
IDEN
CE
ADJU
STM
ENT…
……
……
-173
9-1
779
-180
3-1
880
-195
4-1
978
-206
8-2
078
-212
6-2
179
-216
3-2
134
-222
5-1
994
-180
0-2
019
-215
1%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
-1.8
69.
355.
5318
.41
16.6
74.
8819
.51
1.97
9.50
10.4
7-2
.92
-5.2
418
.14
-35.
529.
0812
.18
6.49
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…8.
9011
.48
8.49
7.61
12.3
711
.20
14.7
110
.50
8.77
10.1
94.
612.
714.
68-8
.51
9.08
12.1
86.
49
PER
CAP
ITA
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
($)…
…44
545
4494
945
341
4609
846
330
4688
747
640
4802
848
185
4857
548
825
4916
649
350
5119
245
233
4722
148
688
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
…1.
693.
683.
536.
852.
034.
896.
583.
301.
313.
282.
072.
821.
5115
.79
3.67
4.40
3.11
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…3.
383.
873.
503.
924.
014.
315.
074.
194.
003.
602.
492.
372.
425.
393.
674.
403.
11
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars)
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 45
Tabl
e 5:
Ten
ness
ee N
onfa
rm E
mpl
oym
ent b
y Se
ctor
, Not
Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
(thou
sand
s of
jobs
)
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……3
005.
430
10.7
3064
.130
15.4
3055
.030
63.6
3118
.930
79.8
3114
.131
21.1
3173
.331
31.7
2857
.129
76.4
3012
.430
63.3
3122
.1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
.1.
641.
421.
501.
551.
651.
761.
792.
131.
931.
881.
741.
69-8
.25
-4.6
41.
591.
691.
92N
ATU
RAL
RES
OU
RC
ES, M
ININ
G &
CO
NST
RU
CTI
ON
…12
4.9
126.
712
6.2
122.
912
8.9
132.
213
1.7
129.
613
5.7
136.
913
4.8
130.
913
0.5
131.
912
4.4
128.
913
4.3
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
....
5.25
4.25
3.87
2.76
3.20
4.29
4.36
5.48
5.27
3.58
2.38
1.00
-3.8
3-3
.68
4.38
3.67
4.15
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
346.
734
6.6
346.
734
7.0
349.
435
2.2
353.
535
4.4
356.
035
6.5
353.
535
2.4
306.
332
5.1
346.
335
0.5
355.
1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
.1.
530.
950.
650.
570.
771.
601.
962.
131.
891.
220.
02-0
.55
-13.
97-8
.81
1.34
1.23
1.31
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…22
2.7
221.
722
1.8
221.
822
3.3
225.
022
6.5
227.
822
8.5
228.
522
4.9
223.
819
0.4
204.
822
2.0
224.
122
7.4
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
....
1.43
0.45
0.17
-0.0
80.
251.
492.
102.
722.
361.
57-0
.72
-1.7
7-1
6.67
-10.
361.
140.
941.
47N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…12
4.0
125.
012
4.8
125.
212
6.1
127.
212
7.0
126.
612
7.5
128.
012
8.7
128.
611
5.8
120.
212
4.2
126.
412
7.7
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
....
1.72
1.85
1.52
1.73
1.69
1.79
1.71
1.09
1.06
0.60
1.34
1.63
-9.1
3-6
.04
1.71
1.73
1.02
TRAD
E, T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, U
TILI
TIES
……
……
……
…61
5.1
618.
763
3.7
617.
762
1.8
624.
864
1.8
629.
763
3.0
636.
265
5.8
647.
261
6.1
632.
861
9.7
626.
563
8.7
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
....
0.52
0.53
0.77
1.04
1.10
0.99
1.28
1.94
1.80
1.83
2.18
2.77
-2.6
8-0
.54
0.72
1.10
1.94
WH
OLE
SALE
TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
118.
111
8.3
118.
811
8.2
119.
111
9.5
120.
312
0.1
121.
012
1.3
121.
712
0.7
115.
711
6.9
118.
111
9.3
121.
0%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
.1.
520.
971.
110.
770.
871.
071.
291.
611.
541.
451.
160.
47-4
.38
-3.5
71.
161.
001.
44R
ETAI
L TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
334.
233
4.3
343.
433
3.1
335.
633
3.7
340.
733
2.3
332.
533
2.2
344.
133
8.9
322.
133
5.9
336.
033
5.8
335.
3%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
.0.
480.
250.
350.
280.
42-0
.19
-0.7
9-0
.24
-0.9
3-0
.45
1.01
1.98
-3.1
31.
130.
60-0
.07
-0.1
5TR
ANSP
OR
TATI
ON
& U
TILI
TIES
……
……
……
……
…16
2.7
166.
117
1.5
166.
416
7.1
171.
618
0.8
177.
317
9.6
182.
819
0.0
187.
617
8.3
179.
916
5.6
171.
518
2.4
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
....
-0.1
20.
791.
402.
782.
663.
295.
406.
557.
486.
535.
075.
83-0
.71
-1.5
90.
643.
566.
38IN
FOR
MAT
ION
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…46
.345
.846
.745
.346
.144
.644
.644
.145
.545
.746
.645
.642
.843
.146
.145
.245
.5%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
.0.
871.
101.
89-0
.44
-0.3
6-2
.62
-4.5
6-2
.65
-1.2
32.
474.
413.
32-6
.08
-5.6
91.
15-2
.01
0.72
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
162.
016
4.2
165.
716
5.8
168.
216
9.8
169.
616
9.8
172.
017
3.9
173.
117
4.1
172.
517
4.7
162.
716
8.4
172.
2%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
.4.
184.
084.
634.
393.
853.
452.
372.
412.
242.
412.
062.
570.
330.
464.
233.
502.
28PR
OFE
SSIO
NAL
& B
USI
NES
S SE
RVI
CES
……
……
……
406.
140
9.6
419.
040
6.2
414.
041
6.7
427.
541
8.1
424.
142
8.4
435.
842
4.1
387.
040
5.9
408.
641
6.1
426.
6%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
.0.
640.
841.
041.
661.
951.
742.
012.
942.
442.
801.
961.
44-8
.75
-5.2
50.
861.
842.
53ED
UC
ATIO
N &
HEA
LTH
SER
VIC
ES…
……
……
……
……
428.
942
8.5
437.
043
4.4
433.
543
4.1
441.
443
9.8
439.
644
0.6
448.
944
8.0
418.
342
9.3
430.
943
5.9
442.
2%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
.1.
841.
231.
361.
271.
071.
301.
001.
251.
401.
511.
691.
86-4
.85
-2.5
61.
641.
161.
46LE
ISU
RE
& H
OSP
ITAL
ITY…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…33
5.0
336.
832
9.7
321.
834
3.4
346.
833
8.7
332.
335
3.3
357.
235
3.5
344.
825
2.6
304.
732
8.9
337.
734
9.1
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
....
2.86
2.60
2.91
2.40
2.52
2.96
2.73
3.26
2.88
2.99
4.37
3.76
-28.
51-1
4.70
2.92
2.66
3.37
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…11
5.0
115.
711
5.8
115.
711
8.7
119.
711
9.5
119.
312
2.1
122.
212
1.3
119.
810
7.1
117.
911
4.6
118.
412
1.2
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
....
3.11
3.43
3.61
3.37
3.25
3.52
3.22
3.08
2.89
2.06
1.51
0.48
-12.
31-3
.55
3.25
3.34
2.38
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
425.
441
8.0
443.
643
8.7
430.
942
2.7
450.
744
2.7
432.
742
3.5
450.
044
4.7
423.
941
1.2
430.
443
5.8
437.
2%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r.....
......
......
......
......
......
......
.0.
930.
590.
371.
001.
291.
121.
600.
910.
420.
19-0
.16
0.45
-2.0
3-2
.91
0.55
1.25
0.34
FED
ERAL
, CIV
ILIA
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
49.2
49.0
48.8
48.8
48.8
49.1
49.8
49.5
49.9
50.4
50.5
50.1
50.2
54.0
49.1
49.1
50.1
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
....
0.20
-0.6
8-1
.42
-1.1
5-0
.81
0.20
2.19
1.57
2.18
2.65
1.27
1.14
0.67
7.08
-0.3
20.
101.
92ST
ATE
& LO
CAL
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…37
6.2
369.
039
4.9
390.
038
2.1
373.
640
0.9
393.
238
2.8
373.
139
9.5
394.
637
3.7
357.
238
1.3
386.
638
7.2
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr..
......
......
......
......
......
......
....
1.03
0.76
0.59
1.27
1.57
1.24
1.53
0.83
0.19
-0.1
3-0
.34
0.36
-2.3
9-4
.26
0.66
1.40
0.14
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Dec
embe
r 202
0H
isto
rical
Dat
aAn
nual
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
46 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 6:
Ten
ness
ee D
urab
le G
oods
Man
ufac
turin
g Em
ploy
men
t, N
ot S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (th
ousa
nds
of jo
bs)
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
……
222.
722
1.7
221.
822
1.8
223.
322
5.0
226.
522
7.8
228.
522
8.5
224.
922
3.8
190.
420
4.8
222.
022
4.1
227.
4%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…1.
430.
450.
17-0
.08
0.25
1.49
2.10
2.72
2.36
1.57
-0.7
2-1
.77
-16.
67-1
0.36
1.14
0.94
1.47
WO
OD
PR
OD
UC
TS…
……
……
……
……
……
…12
.512
.612
.612
.512
.612
.612
.412
.312
.512
.712
.612
.412
.713
.312
.512
.512
.6%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…3.
312.
992.
430.
541.
07-0
.53
-1.5
8-1
.07
-0.7
91.
331.
340.
271.
334.
713.
29-0
.13
0.20
NO
NM
ETAL
LIC
MIN
ERAL
PR
OD
UC
TS…
……
13.7
13.7
13.7
13.8
14.2
14.4
14.4
14.2
14.4
14.3
14.2
14.1
13.9
14.5
13.6
14.2
14.3
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
2.76
1.73
2.75
2.98
3.90
4.87
5.35
2.41
1.64
-0.2
3-1
.62
-0.4
7-3
.70
1.16
2.32
4.28
0.53
PRIM
ARY
MET
ALS…
……
….…
……
……
……
…10
.710
.710
.810
.910
.911
.111
.211
.411
.311
.311
.311
.211
.512
.110
.711
.011
.3%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…0.
312.
560.
931.
242.
183.
744.
014.
603.
662.
100.
59-1
.47
1.76
6.76
0.78
2.80
2.72
FABR
ICAT
ED M
ETAL
PR
OD
UC
TS…
……
……
35.6
35.4
35.7
35.8
36.3
37.0
37.4
37.9
38.1
38.1
37.9
37.3
37.0
38.5
35.6
36.6
38.0
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
-0.8
4-0
.84
0.47
0.94
1.97
4.42
4.67
5.77
4.96
3.06
1.43
-1.5
0-2
.89
0.87
-0.4
93.
003.
78
MAC
HIN
ERY…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
25.7
25.2
25.0
25.2
26.0
25.9
26.1
26.9
27.0
26.5
25.9
26.0
25.7
26.6
25.3
25.8
26.6
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
-1.4
1-1
.69
-0.7
90.
261.
302.
774.
396.
613.
722.
19-0
.77
-3.4
7-4
.82
0.38
-0.7
92.
182.
90
CO
MPU
TER
& E
LEC
TRO
NIC
PR
OD
UC
TS…
…4.
94.
94.
95.
05.
15.
35.
55.
75.
75.
65.
65.
55.
65.
84.
95.
25.
7%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…2.
802.
082.
073.
454.
088.
8411
.49
13.3
311
.76
5.62
1.82
-2.9
4-1
.75
2.96
1.91
6.98
7.96
ELEC
TRIC
AL E
QU
IPM
ENT,
APP
LIAN
CES
& C
OM
PON
ENTS
……
……
..……
……
……
……
19.3
19.2
19.2
19.0
18.9
18.6
18.2
17.7
17.6
17.6
17.3
17.4
17.6
17.9
19.3
18.7
17.6
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
-3.3
4-3
.85
-2.3
7-2
.23
-2.0
8-2
.78
-5.5
5-6
.50
-6.7
1-5
.55
-4.5
9-1
.69
-0.1
91.
89-3
.06
-3.1
6-5
.85
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N E
QU
IPM
ENT…
……
……
…74
.874
.273
.773
.773
.374
.075
.275
.875
.775
.673
.473
.540
.148
.474
.574
.075
.1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…4.
081.
41-1
.25
-1.9
5-2
.05
-0.3
62.
082.
763.
322.
25-2
.39
-3.0
4-4
6.98
-35.
962.
69-0
.58
1.46
FUR
NIT
UR
E……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…9.
69.
49.
59.
69.
69.
69.
69.
69.
69.
79.
89.
89.
610
.29.
59.
69.
7%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…1.
77-0
.71
0.00
0.00
0.70
2.49
1.40
0.70
0.00
1.04
2.08
2.08
-0.3
54.
810.
881.
140.
95
MIS
CEL
LAN
EOU
S D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
16.0
16.3
16.6
16.3
16.3
16.5
16.4
16.4
16.5
16.9
16.8
16.6
16.7
17.5
16.2
16.4
16.6
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
2.78
3.60
5.94
3.60
1.87
1.02
-1.4
00.
411.
222.
632.
241.
431.
213.
553.
631.
241.
63
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 47
Tabl
e 7:
Ten
ness
ee N
ondu
rabl
e G
oods
Man
ufac
turin
g Em
ploy
men
t, N
ot S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (th
ousa
nds
of jo
bs)
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
124.
012
5.0
124.
812
5.2
126.
112
7.2
127.
012
6.6
127.
512
8.0
128.
712
8.6
115.
812
0.2
124.
212
6.4
127.
7%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…1.
721.
851.
521.
731.
691.
791.
711.
091.
060.
601.
341.
63-9
.13
-6.0
41.
711.
731.
02
FOO
D…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
35.0
35.8
35.9
35.8
35.7
35.7
35.5
35.4
35.8
36.1
36.2
36.0
33.3
33.3
35.4
35.7
35.9
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
……
2.94
3.37
2.87
2.48
1.81
-0.2
8-0
.93
-1.1
20.
281.
031.
971.
89-6
.80
-7.8
53.
060.
750.
54
BEVE
RAG
E &
TOBA
CC
O…
……
……
……
……
…6.
97.
17.
17.
07.
27.
37.
37.
07.
37.
67.
77.
77.
17.
36.
97.
27.
4%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…5.
615.
975.
476.
034.
353.
293.
30-0
.47
1.85
3.18
5.48
9.52
-2.7
3-3
.08
5.59
4.21
2.54
PAPE
R…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…12
.112
.011
.711
.912
.012
.212
.212
.312
.512
.812
.812
.712
.612
.711
.912
.112
.6%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…0.
560.
00-1
.95
0.85
-0.2
82.
233.
693.
073.
604.
904.
933.
521.
07-1
.04
-0.3
51.
614.
14
PRIN
TIN
G &
REL
ATED
SU
PPO
RT…
……
……
…9.
08.
98.
98.
88.
99.
09.
18.
98.
98.
98.
98.
76.
97.
09.
09.
08.
9%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-2
.88
-2.1
9-2
.20
-2.9
3-1
.11
1.12
2.25
0.75
0.00
-1.4
8-2
.20
-1.8
7-2
2.10
-21.
72-2
.27
-0.1
9-0
.74
CH
EMIC
ALS…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…25
.025
.125
.125
.325
.525
.725
.825
.725
.926
.026
.126
.125
.825
.925
.025
.625
.9%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-1
.45
-0.7
90.
001.
742.
002.
122.
521.
711.
831.
301.
291.
30-0
.51
-0.3
8-1
.09
2.10
1.53
PLAS
TIC
S &
RU
BBER
……
……
……
……
……
…24
.624
.324
.424
.524
.825
.025
.025
.125
.024
.724
.624
.419
.721
.724
.324
.824
.8%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…6.
354.
893.
251.
661.
093.
022.
462.
310.
67-1
.46
-1.6
0-2
.66
-21.
33-1
2.03
5.11
2.05
-0.0
3
MIS
CEL
LAN
EOU
S N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
…11
.511
.711
.811
.812
.012
.212
.112
.212
.111
.912
.413
.010
.412
.411
.612
.012
.1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
…-1
.43
-0.2
81.
441.
724.
643.
993.
123.
110.
28-2
.19
2.20
6.58
-14.
093.
920.
073.
360.
83
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
48 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 8:
Ten
ness
ee N
onfa
rm E
mpl
oym
ent b
y Se
ctor
, Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
(thou
sand
s of
jobs
)
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…30
06.9
3017
.430
28.5
3042
.330
57.2
3070
.530
83.3
3106
.531
16.2
3128
.031
41.3
3152
.028
58.7
2984
.230
12.4
3063
.331
23.0
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
1.38
1.41
1.48
1.83
1.97
1.75
1.68
3.05
1.25
1.53
1.71
1.37
-32.
3518
.76
1.59
1.69
1.95
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.71
1.40
1.41
1.52
1.67
1.76
1.81
2.11
1.93
1.87
1.88
1.47
-8.2
6-4
.60
1.59
1.69
1.95
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
, MIN
ING
AN
D C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N…
……
……
……
……
…12
4.13
124.
7312
5.67
126.
6712
8.00
129.
8313
1.37
133.
5713
4.33
134.
5013
4.27
133.
3313
0.47
130.
6312
4.51
128.
9713
4.17
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
2.07
1.95
3.03
3.22
4.28
5.85
4.81
6.87
2.32
0.50
-0.6
9-2
.75
-8.3
30.
514.
393.
584.
03%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…5.
324.
323.
912.
563.
114.
094.
545.
454.
953.
592.
21-0
.17
-2.8
8-2
.87
4.39
3.58
4.03
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G…
……
……
……
……
……
…34
6.9
346.
234
6.2
347.
634
9.8
351.
735
2.9
354.
935
6.7
355.
835
2.9
352.
930
6.7
324.
334
6.2
350.
535
5.1
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
1.43
-0.7
50.
001.
572.
572.
171.
422.
272.
03-0
.95
-3.2
50.
04-4
2.99
25.0
21.
341.
221.
31%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
600.
930.
630.
560.
841.
571.
932.
111.
971.
180.
00-0
.55
-14.
02-8
.86
1.34
1.22
1.31
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
222.
822
1.6
221.
622
2.0
223.
522
4.7
226.
222
8.0
229.
022
8.1
224.
622
4.0
190.
620
4.3
222.
022
4.1
227.
4%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…1.
10-2
.17
0.13
0.64
2.80
2.19
2.70
3.10
1.84
-1.5
0-6
.14
-1.0
8-4
7.48
31.9
41.
130.
941.
48%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
500.
410.
15-0
.08
0.33
1.43
2.08
2.70
2.46
1.52
-0.7
4-1
.76
-16.
75-1
0.44
1.13
0.94
1.48
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…12
4.1
124.
712
4.6
125.
612
6.3
126.
912
6.7
126.
912
7.7
127.
712
8.4
129.
011
6.0
120.
012
4.2
126.
412
7.7
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
2.01
1.85
-0.2
33.
222.
162.
14-0
.83
0.79
2.39
0.04
2.08
2.03
-34.
5214
.25
1.70
1.73
1.02
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.77
1.86
1.49
1.70
1.74
1.81
1.66
1.06
1.11
0.59
1.32
1.63
-9.1
1-6
.05
1.70
1.73
1.02
TRAD
E, T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, U
TILI
TIES
……
618.
362
0.3
621.
862
4.1
625.
162
6.8
629.
763
6.2
636.
763
8.4
646.
065
2.6
617.
763
5.1
619.
662
6.4
639.
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…0.
241.
300.
971.
530.
621.
091.
864.
170.
361.
034.
874.
13-1
9.74
11.8
00.
681.
112.
06%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
630.
530.
581.
011.
111.
051.
281.
931.
861.
852.
592.
58-2
.99
-0.5
10.
681.
112.
06
WH
OLE
SALE
TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
…11
8.0
118.
111
8.4
118.
711
9.0
119.
412
0.0
120.
512
0.9
121.
112
1.2
121.
311
5.9
116.
811
8.1
119.
312
0.9
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
0.68
0.23
1.02
0.90
1.24
1.12
2.14
1.79
1.33
0.66
0.11
0.33
-16.
663.
141.
130.
991.
40%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
550.
970.
940.
710.
851.
071.
351.
571.
601.
480.
970.
61-4
.19
-3.6
051.
130.
991.
40
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
335.
533
5.7
336.
233
7.0
336.
933
5.3
333.
533
6.2
333.
833
3.8
338.
634
2.4
322.
633
7.8
335.
933
5.7
335.
6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-0
.75
0.16
0.60
1.04
-0.1
6-1
.89
-2.0
93.
24-2
.83
0.04
5.79
4.61
-21.
2320
.32
0.54
-0.0
6-0
.03
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.59
0.27
0.14
0.26
0.41
-0.1
1-0
.78
-0.2
5-0
.92
-0.4
41.
511.
84-3
.37
1.20
0.54
-0.0
6-0
.03
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N &
UTI
LITI
ES…
……
…16
4.7
166.
516
7.2
168.
416
9.2
172.
117
6.2
179.
418
2.0
183.
418
6.3
188.
917
9.2
180.
516
5.6
171.
518
2.8
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
1.97
4.44
1.69
2.98
1.75
7.20
9.71
7.63
5.85
3.11
6.40
5.78
-18.
952.
930.
653.
566.
59%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
060.
771.
212.
772.
713.
385.
366.
537.
596.
555.
735.
28-1
.52
-1.5
60.
653.
566.
59
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…45
.845
.946
.445
.845
.644
.744
.344
.645
.345
.846
.345
.942
.543
.146
.045
.145
.5%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-1
.16
1.17
4.73
-5.6
2-1
.45
-7.3
9-3
.82
2.43
7.06
4.49
4.14
-3.1
3-2
6.48
5.76
1.08
-1.9
60.
91%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
881.
031.
53-0
.29
-0.3
6-2
.54
-4.5
9-2
.62
-0.5
82.
464.
513.
07-6
.18
-5.8
91.
08-1
.96
0.91
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
…16
1.8
163.
416
5.4
166.
816
8.0
169.
216
9.4
170.
817
2.0
173.
317
3.2
174.
817
2.4
174.
316
2.6
168.
417
2.3
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
5.19
3.93
5.07
3.26
3.07
2.73
0.63
3.27
2.76
3.06
-0.1
53.
75-5
.38
4.48
4.23
3.53
2.35
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
4.23
4.03
4.59
4.36
3.83
3.53
2.42
2.42
2.34
2.42
2.22
2.34
0.25
0.60
4.23
3.53
2.35
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
(CO
NTI
NU
ED O
N N
EXT
PAG
E)
Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 49
Tabl
e 8:
Ten
ness
ee N
onfa
rm E
mpl
oym
ent b
y Se
ctor
, Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
(thou
sand
s of
jobs
)
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
PRO
FESS
ION
AL &
BU
SIN
ESS
SER
VIC
ES…
407.
641
0.1
410.
641
2.9
415.
641
6.5
419.
342
4.6
425.
342
8.1
429.
142
9.6
388.
640
5.2
408.
641
6.1
426.
8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…1.
252.
480.
522.
232.
670.
842.
725.
190.
662.
660.
970.
44-3
3.03
18.2
10.
861.
812.
58%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
760.
790.
981.
621.
971.
562.
112.
842.
332.
792.
351.
18-8
.62
-5.3
40.
861.
812.
58
EDU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
430.
643
1.2
433.
243
4.3
435.
343
6.5
437.
543
9.7
440.
944
3.1
444.
144
8.2
419.
443
2.0
431.
043
5.9
441.
9%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…1.
560.
531.
841.
080.
891.
140.
921.
961.
131.
980.
943.
71-2
3.28
12.5
71.
651.
141.
38%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
891.
231.
331.
251.
081.
241.
011.
231.
291.
501.
501.
93-4
.87
-2.4
91.
651.
141.
38
LEIS
UR
E &
HO
SPIT
ALIT
Y……
……
……
……
…32
7.7
329.
633
2.2
333.
833
6.2
339.
334
1.2
344.
334
6.4
349.
635
5.5
355.
224
6.5
297.
932
8.9
337.
634
9.0
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
1.73
2.30
3.19
1.94
2.99
3.66
2.26
3.68
2.46
3.83
6.92
-0.4
1-7
6.80
113.
222.
942.
643.
36%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…3.
002.
632.
782.
292.
602.
942.
713.
153.
013.
064.
213.
17-2
8.83
-14.
812.
942.
643.
36
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
……
114.
111
5.1
116.
111
6.9
117.
811
9.1
119.
812
0.6
121.
212
1.6
121.
512
1.1
106.
111
7.3
114.
611
8.4
121.
2%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…3.
463.
553.
642.
783.
124.
602.
262.
582.
231.
10-0
.33
-1.3
1-4
0.94
49.0
43.
263.
342.
36%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…3.
173.
383.
543.
363.
273.
533.
193.
142.
912.
041.
390.
41-1
2.46
-3.5
43.
263.
342.
36
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…43
0.0
431.
043
1.0
433.
543
5.7
436.
943
7.8
437.
443
7.3
437.
843
8.4
438.
542
8.2
424.
343
0.3
436.
043
7.8
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
0.78
0.90
-0.0
32.
402.
011.
080.
89-0
.36
-0.0
90.
460.
520.
06-9
.01
-3.5
90.
561.
320.
41%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
920.
580.
231.
011.
321.
361.
590.
900.
370.
220.
130.
24-2
.08
-3.0
80.
561.
320.
41
FED
ERAL
, CIV
ILIA
N…
……
……
……
……
…49
.349
.148
.648
.848
.949
.149
.649
.650
.050
.450
.350
.350
.354
.049
.149
.150
.1%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-1
.08
-1.6
1-3
.75
1.93
0.55
1.92
4.13
-0.2
72.
993.
79-0
.79
-0.5
30.
0032
.86
-0.3
70.
081.
95%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
20-0
.74
-1.6
9-1
.15
-0.7
40.
142.
131.
572.
182.
651.
411.
340.
607.
01-0
.37
0.08
1.95
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
…38
0.8
381.
938
2.4
384.
738
6.8
387.
738
8.2
387.
838
7.4
387.
438
8.1
388.
237
8.0
370.
438
1.2
386.
938
7.7
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
1.02
1.23
0.45
2.46
2.20
0.97
0.48
-0.3
8-0
.48
0.03
0.69
0.14
-10.
13-7
.80
0.68
1.48
0.21
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.02
0.76
0.48
1.29
1.58
1.52
1.53
0.81
0.15
-0.0
9-0
.03
0.09
-2.4
3-4
.40
0.68
1.48
0.21
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
50 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 9:
Ten
ness
ee D
urab
le G
oods
Man
ufac
turin
g Em
ploy
men
t, Se
ason
ally
Adj
uste
d (th
ousa
nds
of jo
bs)
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
222.
822
1.6
221.
622
2.0
223.
522
4.7
226.
222
8.0
229.
022
8.1
224.
622
4.0
190.
620
4.3
222.
022
4.1
227.
4%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
1.10
-2.1
70.
130.
642.
802.
192.
703.
101.
84-1
.50
-6.1
4-1
.08
-47.
4831
.94
1.13
0.94
1.48
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…1.
500.
410.
15-0
.08
0.33
1.43
2.08
2.70
2.46
1.52
-0.7
4-1
.76
-16.
75-1
0.44
1.13
0.94
1.48
WO
OD
PR
OD
UC
TS…
……
……
……
……
…12
.512
.512
.612
.612
.612
.512
.412
.512
.512
.612
.612
.512
.713
.212
.512
.512
.5%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
-1.2
21.
332.
50-0
.23
0.75
-5.3
6-1
.29
2.10
1.67
2.37
-0.6
1-2
.11
5.83
16.5
03.
29-0
.14
0.20
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…3.
322.
912.
480.
581.
08-0
.63
-1.5
6-0
.99
-0.7
71.
201.
380.
321.
334.
653.
29-0
.14
0.20
NO
NM
ETAL
LIC
MIN
ERAL
S……
……
……
13.6
13.6
13.7
13.9
14.1
14.3
14.5
14.3
14.4
14.3
14.2
14.2
13.8
14.4
13.6
14.2
14.3
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
…2.
870.
802.
515.
816.
494.
664.
55-5
.58
3.26
-2.8
2-1
.18
-0.9
2-9
.71
18.5
72.
314.
280.
52%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
2.75
1.71
2.79
2.98
3.88
4.86
5.37
2.42
1.63
-0.2
3-1
.63
-0.4
4-3
.72
1.18
2.31
4.28
0.52
PRIM
ARY
MET
ALS…
……
….…
……
……
…10
.710
.710
.810
.811
.011
.111
.211
.311
.411
.311
.311
.211
.612
.110
.711
.011
.3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
0.11
0.40
2.50
1.89
4.36
5.70
4.24
4.25
0.89
-1.4
5-1
.11
-3.9
914
.72
18.9
40.
782.
792.
72%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
0.41
2.45
0.99
1.22
2.28
3.60
4.04
4.63
3.75
1.95
0.62
-1.4
31.
796.
690.
782.
792.
72
FABR
ICAT
ED M
ETAL
S……
……
……
…...
35.6
35.4
35.7
35.9
36.3
36.9
37.4
38.0
38.1
38.0
37.9
37.4
37.0
38.3
35.5
36.6
38.0
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
…0.
63-2
.26
3.52
2.18
4.74
6.85
4.99
6.67
1.64
-1.1
7-1
.35
-4.8
1-4
.06
14.6
5-0
.50
3.00
3.78
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…-0
.82
-0.9
00.
470.
992.
014.
314.
685.
815.
022.
991.
40-1
.45
-2.8
60.
81-0
.50
3.00
3.78
MAC
HIN
ERY…
……
……
……
……
……
……
25.3
25.3
25.3
25.3
25.7
25.9
26.4
26.9
26.6
26.5
26.2
26.0
25.4
26.6
25.3
25.8
26.6
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
…1.
41-1
.38
0.18
0.60
5.99
4.32
7.27
8.36
-4.3
5-2
.01
-4.3
3-3
.43
-9.2
221
.06
-0.7
72.
192.
88%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
-1.4
4-1
.74
-0.6
90.
201.
312.
744.
516.
473.
782.
17-0
.72
-3.5
4-4
.79
0.38
-0.7
72.
192.
88
CO
MPU
TER
S &
ELEC
TRO
NIC
S……
……
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.3
5.5
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.8
4.9
5.2
5.6
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
…6.
12-1
.26
3.14
6.25
8.44
18.0
413
.42
13.8
32.
49-6
.07
-1.9
6-5
.92
7.58
13.1
51.
916.
987.
97%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
2.87
2.03
2.01
3.52
4.08
8.83
11.4
413
.38
11.7
95.
591.
81-2
.93
-1.7
42.
941.
916.
987.
97
ELEC
TRIC
AL E
QU
IPM
ENT,
APP
LIAN
CES
& C
OM
PON
ENTS
……
……
..……
……
…19
.319
.119
.219
.018
.918
.618
.217
.817
.617
.517
.317
.517
.617
.819
.318
.717
.6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
-3.2
9-4
.00
2.51
-3.6
4-3
.18
-6.8
4-8
.37
-7.3
7-4
.15
-2.4
8-4
.19
4.41
1.72
5.79
-3.0
7-3
.15
-5.8
5%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
-3.4
0-3
.88
-2.3
7-2
.14
-2.1
1-2
.84
-5.5
3-6
.46
-6.6
9-5
.62
-4.5
6-1
.66
-0.1
91.
86-3
.07
-3.1
5-5
.85
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N E
QU
IPM
ENT…
……
75.2
74.5
73.3
73.4
73.8
74.2
74.7
75.4
76.4
75.8
72.9
73.1
40.6
48.6
74.5
74.0
75.1
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
…1.
48-3
.90
-6.2
00.
682.
262.
022.
913.
545.
66-3
.00
-14.
731.
04-9
0.51
105.
582.
68-0
.59
1.48
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
…4.
241.
40-1
.33
-2.0
4-1
.85
-0.3
71.
962.
683.
522.
23-2
.47
-3.0
6-4
6.94
-35.
982.
68-0
.59
1.48
FUR
NIT
UR
E……
……
……
……
……
……
…9.
69.
49.
59.
69.
69.
69.
69.
69.
69.
79.
89.
89.
610
.29.
59.
69.
7%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
0.25
-6.8
75.
221.
943.
32-0
.30
0.09
-0.0
20.
463.
584.
160.
28-8
.77
26.5
50.
891.
140.
97%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
1.93
-0.6
7-0
.18
0.03
0.79
2.52
1.25
0.76
0.06
1.02
2.03
2.10
-0.3
34.
790.
891.
140.
97
MIS
CEL
LAN
EOU
S D
UR
ABLE
S……
……
…16
.116
.216
.616
.416
.416
.316
.416
.516
.616
.716
.716
.716
.817
.316
.216
.416
.6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
5.53
2.95
11.0
2-4
.31
-1.1
9-1
.30
1.27
3.10
2.17
3.59
0.10
0.00
1.30
13.1
63.
621.
241.
63%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
2.86
3.47
5.95
3.65
1.96
0.89
-1.4
00.
451.
302.
532.
231.
461.
243.
503.
621.
241.
63
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Dece
mbe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
Boyd
Cen
ter f
or B
usin
ess
and
Econ
omic
Res
earc
h, U
nive
rsity
of T
enne
ssee
Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 51
Tabl
e 10
: Te
nnes
see
Nond
urab
le G
oods
Man
ufac
turin
g Em
ploy
men
t, Se
ason
ally
Adj
uste
d (th
ousa
nds
of jo
bs)
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
…12
4.1
124.
712
4.6
125.
612
6.3
126.
912
6.7
126.
912
7.7
127.
712
8.4
129.
011
6.0
120.
012
4.2
126.
412
7.7
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…2.
011.
85-0
.23
3.22
2.16
2.14
-0.8
30.
792.
390.
042.
082.
03-3
4.52
14.2
51.
701.
731.
02%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
1.77
1.86
1.49
1.70
1.74
1.81
1.66
1.06
1.11
0.59
1.32
1.63
-9.1
1-6
.05
1.70
1.73
1.02
FOO
D…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…35
.235
.735
.835
.935
.835
.635
.435
.535
.936
.036
.136
.133
.533
.235
.435
.735
.9%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
2.24
5.80
0.75
1.19
-0.5
0-2
.30
-2.1
80.
525.
210.
851.
310.
28-2
6.43
-3.3
93.
050.
760.
53%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
2.94
3.39
2.86
2.48
1.78
-0.2
2-0
.96
-1.1
20.
261.
061.
951.
89-6
.82
-7.8
23.
050.
760.
53
BEVE
RAG
E &
TOBA
CC
O…
……
……
……
……
6.9
7.0
7.0
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.1
7.3
7.5
7.6
7.8
7.1
7.2
6.9
7.2
7.4
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…8.
668.
140.
478.
031.
323.
010.
55-6
.13
11.0
47.
959.
599.
90-3
1.13
6.35
5.58
4.24
2.53
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…5.
705.
805.
306.
274.
433.
173.
19-0
.37
1.93
3.13
5.38
9.62
-2.7
2-3
.09
5.58
4.24
2.53
PAPE
R…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
12.0
11.9
11.8
12.0
12.0
12.1
12.2
12.4
12.5
12.7
12.8
12.8
12.6
12.6
11.9
12.1
12.6
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…3.
17-4
.66
-3.7
88.
63-0
.24
4.36
2.60
5.08
3.02
8.49
3.61
-1.1
8-5
.73
-0.9
0-0
.35
1.61
4.13
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…0.
67-0
.06
-1.8
50.
70-0
.15
2.14
3.79
2.93
3.76
4.77
5.03
3.43
1.16
-1.1
1-0
.35
1.61
4.13
PRIN
TIN
G &
REL
ATED
SU
PPO
RT…
……
……
9.0
9.0
8.8
8.8
8.9
9.1
9.0
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.8
8.7
7.0
7.0
9.0
9.0
8.9
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-3
.87
-2.6
4-4
.84
-0.2
24.
205.
57-1
.13
-5.1
41.
60-1
.25
-4.2
9-3
.27
-59.
620.
33-2
.27
-0.1
9-0
.73
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-2
.69
-2.2
3-2
.37
-2.9
1-0
.93
1.10
2.07
0.78
0.15
-1.5
1-2
.31
-1.8
3-2
2.05
-21.
74-2
.27
-0.1
9-0
.73
CH
EMIC
ALS…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
25.0
25.1
25.1
25.4
25.5
25.6
25.7
25.8
25.9
25.9
26.1
26.1
25.8
25.8
25.0
25.6
25.9
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…0.
181.
480.
814.
501.
282.
082.
191.
161.
950.
032.
031.
09-5
.04
0.66
-1.0
92.
101.
53%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-1.4
5-0
.77
-0.0
21.
732.
012.
162.
511.
681.
841.
331.
291.
27-0
.51
-0.3
6-1
.09
2.10
1.53
PLAS
TIC
S &
RU
BBER
……
……
……
……
……
24.5
24.4
24.4
24.5
24.8
25.1
25.0
25.1
25.0
24.7
24.5
24.4
19.7
21.7
24.3
24.8
24.8
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…6.
46-1
.56
-0.6
92.
514.
615.
50-2
.65
1.91
-1.3
7-4
.02
-2.8
6-2
.35
-57.
8649
.56
5.11
2.05
-0.0
3%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
6.46
4.79
3.26
1.63
1.18
2.95
2.44
2.29
0.80
-1.5
6-1
.61
-2.6
5-2
1.30
-12.
075.
112.
05-0
.03
MIS
CEL
LAN
EOU
S N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
11.5
11.7
11.7
11.8
12.1
12.2
12.1
12.2
12.1
11.9
12.3
13.0
10.4
12.4
11.6
12.0
12.1
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-3
.88
4.99
2.37
2.68
8.82
3.64
-3.2
43.
06-1
.91
-5.7
914
.14
21.8
9-5
8.39
102.
400.
073.
350.
83%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-1.4
40.
071.
301.
494.
684.
352.
892.
980.
34-2
.02
2.11
6.48
-14.
074.
040.
073.
350.
83
Boyd
Cen
ter f
or B
usin
ess
and
Econ
omic
Res
earc
h, U
nive
rsity
of T
enne
ssee
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Dece
mbe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
52 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 11
: Te
nnes
see
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
and
Sala
ry R
ate
by S
ecto
r, N
ot S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (2
012
dolla
rs)
2017
:120
17:2
2017
:320
17:4
2018
:120
18:2
2018
:320
18:4
2019
:120
19:2
2019
:320
19:4
2020
:120
20:2
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
4659
146
304
4651
546
289
4722
246
691
4730
546
629
4792
347
547
4736
646
632
4795
348
622
4642
546
962
4736
7%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
511.
551.
130.
981.
350.
841.
700.
731.
481.
830.
130.
010.
062.
261.
041.
160.
86N
ATU
RAL
RES
OU
RC
ES, M
ININ
G A
ND
CO
NST
RU
CTI
ON
……
……
……
……
…55
796
5318
653
418
5597
355
469
5366
353
230
5343
157
257
5467
253
778
5400
657
262
5387
254
593
5394
854
928
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.83
2.33
3.11
1.49
-0.5
90.
90-0
.35
-4.5
43.
221.
881.
031.
080.
01-1
.46
2.17
-1.1
81.
82M
ANU
FAC
TUR
ING
……
……
……
……
……
…56
384
5628
156
165
5718
255
194
5514
955
340
5473
555
346
5491
754
589
5488
455
304
5734
056
503
5510
454
934
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.38
0.86
0.31
1.25
-2.1
1-2
.01
-1.4
7-4
.28
0.27
-0.4
2-1
.36
0.27
-0.0
74.
410.
70-2
.48
-0.3
1D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
……
5489
455
093
5518
556
085
5554
455
182
5596
955
211
5581
954
961
5491
255
646
5650
458
463
5531
455
476
5533
4%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-0
.38
1.02
0.74
1.78
1.19
0.16
1.42
-1.5
60.
49-0
.40
-1.8
90.
791.
236.
370.
790.
29-0
.26
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
5907
358
413
5790
559
131
5457
455
090
5422
853
885
5449
454
839
5401
253
552
5321
855
492
5863
054
444
5422
4%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
690.
57-0
.47
0.31
-7.6
2-5
.69
-6.3
5-8
.87
-0.1
5-0
.46
-0.4
0-0
.62
-2.3
41.
190.
52-7
.14
-0.4
0TR
ADE,
TR
ANSP
OR
TATI
ON
, UTI
LITI
ES…
…43
231
4312
743
133
4256
443
579
4336
043
829
4241
744
295
4418
643
184
4183
043
200
4247
843
014
4329
643
374
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.01
0.95
-0.5
60.
970.
800.
541.
61-0
.34
1.65
1.91
-1.4
7-1
.38
-2.4
7-3
.87
0.59
0.66
0.18
WH
OLE
SALE
TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
6944
368
469
6840
669
394
6831
967
669
6748
166
130
6897
268
775
6785
266
162
6955
069
905
6892
867
400
6794
0%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
850.
61-5
.29
0.23
-1.6
2-1
.17
-1.3
5-4
.70
0.96
1.63
0.55
0.05
0.84
1.64
-0.7
1-2
.22
0.80
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
2943
529
288
2913
528
943
2959
629
615
3042
428
979
3019
029
843
2939
927
992
2881
128
012
2920
029
654
2935
6%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
810.
540.
741.
070.
551.
124.
430.
122.
000.
77-3
.37
-3.4
1-4
.57
-6.1
30.
791.
55-1
.00
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N &
UTI
LITI
ES…
……
…52
539
5316
053
311
5125
453
989
5363
753
418
5196
354
013
5418
051
870
5131
052
236
5081
852
566
5325
252
843
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.70
1.48
2.29
1.09
2.76
0.90
0.20
1.38
0.04
1.01
-2.9
0-1
.26
-3.2
9-6
.21
1.39
1.30
-0.7
7IN
FOR
MAT
ION
……
……
……
……
……
……
…67
495
6053
062
388
6465
068
684
6944
767
582
6542
367
687
6703
169
480
6871
168
336
6943
263
766
6778
468
227
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
12.3
51.
01-0
.05
4.79
1.76
14.7
38.
331.
20-1
.45
-3.4
82.
815.
030.
963.
584.
496.
300.
65FI
NAN
CIA
L AC
TIVI
TIES
……
……
……
……
…65
008
6469
365
432
6600
466
335
6561
170
572
6815
269
968
6899
167
476
6886
070
505
7330
665
284
6766
768
824
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-3.0
9-1
.82
0.07
0.48
2.04
1.42
7.86
3.25
5.48
5.15
-4.3
91.
040.
776.
25-1
.10
3.65
1.71
PRO
FESS
ION
AL &
BU
SIN
ESS
SER
VIC
ES…
5377
153
020
5332
452
443
5740
054
631
5538
155
728
5812
957
614
5776
756
777
5858
361
245
5313
955
785
5757
2%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-0
.58
1.84
2.94
0.42
6.75
3.04
3.86
6.26
1.27
5.46
4.31
1.88
0.78
6.30
1.14
4.98
3.20
EDU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
4716
147
681
4744
246
721
4704
947
589
4695
247
545
4755
647
840
4763
846
962
4787
748
100
4725
147
284
4749
9%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
632.
950.
76-0
.06
-0.2
4-0
.19
-1.0
31.
761.
080.
531.
46-1
.23
0.68
0.54
1.07
0.07
0.46
LEIS
UR
E &
HO
SPIT
ALIT
Y……
……
……
……
2458
323
179
2340
124
127
2504
323
696
2436
525
031
2524
624
179
2405
823
847
2545
620
989
2382
324
534
2433
2%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…3.
382.
613.
912.
041.
872.
234.
123.
750.
812.
04-1
.26
-4.7
30.
83-1
3.19
2.98
2.99
-0.8
2O
THER
SER
VIC
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
4171
541
452
4174
041
697
4176
641
187
4192
841
892
4245
841
622
4113
742
830
4424
844
155
4165
141
693
4201
2%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-2
.47
0.67
1.21
0.37
0.12
-0.6
40.
450.
471.
661.
05-1
.89
2.24
4.22
6.09
-0.0
80.
100.
76G
OVE
RN
MEN
T……
……
……
……
……
……
…42
094
4391
644
585
4247
642
751
4404
645
158
4228
243
202
4418
345
501
4287
243
757
4407
443
268
4355
943
940
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.48
2.85
1.79
1.65
1.56
0.30
1.28
-0.4
61.
060.
310.
761.
401.
29-0
.25
1.70
0.67
0.87
FED
ERAL
, CIV
ILIA
N…
……
……
……
……
…74
472
7473
775
085
7524
976
013
7616
576
131
7557
675
391
7476
374
221
7415
274
856
7560
774
886
7597
174
632
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-1.2
9-0
.30
0.66
1.33
2.07
1.91
1.39
0.43
-0.8
2-1
.84
-2.5
1-1
.88
-0.7
11.
130.
091.
45-1
.76
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
3794
539
882
4053
638
429
3859
139
942
4108
738
143
3914
740
197
4162
238
921
3980
939
835
3919
839
441
3997
2%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
903.
742.
221.
951.
700.
151.
36-0
.74
1.44
0.64
1.30
2.04
1.69
-0.9
02.
210.
621.
35
Dec
embe
r 202
0H
isto
rical
Dat
aAn
nual
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars)
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 53
Tabl
e 12
: Te
nnes
see
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
and
Sala
ry R
ate
by S
ecto
r, Se
ason
ally
Adj
uste
d (2
012
dolla
rs)
2017
:120
17:2
2017
:320
17:4
2018
:120
18:2
2018
:320
18:4
2019
:120
19:2
2019
:320
19:4
2020
:120
20:2
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…46
167
4628
146
411
4683
346
805
4665
947
200
4716
847
511
4751
647
261
4710
747
644
4859
446
423
4695
847
349
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-1.4
80.
991.
133.
68-0
.24
-1.2
44.
72-0
.27
2.94
0.05
-2.1
3-1
.30
4.63
8.23
1.04
1.15
0.83
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.48
1.48
1.15
1.06
1.38
0.82
1.70
0.72
1.51
1.84
0.13
-0.1
30.
282.
271.
041.
150.
83
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
, MIN
ING
AN
D C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N…
……
……
……
……
…54
034
5352
954
275
5619
653
820
5405
454
187
5355
355
571
5524
154
737
5422
156
232
5389
954
508
5390
354
943
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-9.4
6-3
.69
5.69
14.9
3-1
5.87
1.75
0.99
-4.6
015
.95
-2.3
5-3
.60
-3.7
215
.68
-15.
592.
17-1
.11
1.93
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.96
2.27
3.04
1.45
-0.4
00.
98-0
.16
-4.7
03.
252.
201.
021.
251.
19-2
.43
2.17
-1.1
11.
93
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G…
……
……
……
……
……
…56
278
5625
756
231
5725
455
098
5508
855
418
5482
155
263
5481
254
686
5498
155
218
5726
056
505
5510
654
935
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-1.8
3-0
.15
-0.1
97.
48-1
4.24
-0.0
72.
42-4
.24
3.27
-3.2
3-0
.91
2.17
1.74
15.6
30.
70-2
.48
-0.3
1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
410.
800.
331.
27-2
.10
-2.0
8-1
.44
-4.2
50.
30-0
.50
-1.3
20.
29-0
.08
4.47
0.70
-2.4
8-0
.31
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
5483
855
076
5521
356
139
5549
255
121
5602
855
276
5577
854
847
5499
855
722
5645
758
398
5531
755
479
5533
6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-2
.25
1.75
1.00
6.87
-4.5
3-2
.65
6.75
-5.2
63.
68-6
.51
1.11
5.37
5.38
14.4
70.
800.
29-0
.26
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-0.3
40.
950.
791.
791.
190.
081.
48-1
.54
0.52
-0.5
0-1
.84
0.81
1.22
6.47
0.80
0.29
-0.2
6
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…58
869
5837
758
039
5923
954
401
5503
054
339
5400
854
339
5474
854
129
5368
453
068
5539
258
631
5444
454
225
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-1.1
5-3
.30
-2.3
08.
53-2
8.88
4.70
-4.9
3-2
.41
2.48
3.04
-4.4
5-3
.25
-4.5
118
.70
0.52
-7.1
4-0
.40
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.74
0.52
-0.4
80.
34-7
.59
-5.7
3-6
.37
-8.8
3-0
.11
-0.5
1-0
.39
-0.6
0-2
.34
1.18
0.52
-7.1
4-0
.40
TRAD
E, T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, U
TILI
TIES
……
4277
642
904
4302
543
381
4313
243
133
4368
943
232
4384
843
929
4304
042
464
4284
542
368
4302
143
296
4332
0%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-0
.97
1.20
1.13
3.35
-2.2
80.
015.
26-4
.12
5.82
0.75
-7.8
5-5
.24
3.63
-4.3
80.
630.
640.
06%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
090.
84-0
.57
1.17
0.83
0.53
1.54
-0.3
41.
661.
85-1
.49
-1.7
8-2
.29
-3.5
50.
630.
640.
06
WH
OLE
SALE
TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
…69
148
6850
768
503
6960
968
070
6772
667
575
6629
568
743
6879
467
927
6645
369
225
6978
468
942
6741
767
979
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-1.0
5-3
.66
-0.0
26.
62-8
.56
-2.0
0-0
.89
-7.3
715
.61
0.30
-4.9
5-8
.40
17.7
63.
27-0
.68
-2.2
10.
83%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
850.
58-5
.29
0.40
-1.5
6-1
.14
-1.3
5-4
.76
0.99
1.58
0.52
0.24
0.70
1.44
-0.6
8-2
.21
0.83
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
2908
529
175
2901
629
566
2925
129
504
3027
629
601
2983
929
727
2925
228
452
2851
427
972
2921
129
658
2931
8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-1
.45
1.24
-2.1
67.
80-4
.19
3.50
10.8
9-8
.62
3.26
-1.5
0-6
.23
-10.
500.
87-7
.39
0.86
1.53
-1.1
5%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
010.
430.
721.
280.
571.
134.
340.
122.
010.
76-3
.38
-3.8
8-4
.44
-5.9
00.
861.
53-1
.15
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N &
UTI
LITI
ES…
……
…51
898
5252
653
194
5258
353
337
5297
153
252
5332
953
370
5345
651
700
5232
951
886
5055
452
550
5322
252
714
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-0.1
64.
935.
19-4
.51
5.86
-2.7
22.
140.
580.
310.
64-1
2.50
4.96
-3.3
4-9
.88
1.37
1.28
-0.9
6%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
611.
292.
311.
282.
770.
850.
111.
420.
060.
92-2
.91
-1.8
8-2
.78
-5.4
31.
371.
28-0
.96
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…66
956
6119
162
206
6506
868
034
7020
967
330
6586
667
029
6732
769
227
6910
767
840
6981
363
855
6786
068
172
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
37.1
4-3
0.24
6.80
19.7
119
.52
13.4
1-1
5.42
-8.4
27.
251.
7911
.78
-0.6
9-7
.13
12.1
54.
546.
270.
46%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…12
.20
1.00
0.02
5.17
1.61
14.7
48.
241.
23-1
.48
-4.1
02.
824.
921.
213.
694.
546.
270.
46
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
…64
601
6474
665
739
6611
065
937
6567
670
850
6823
269
545
6899
167
736
6883
470
236
7336
365
299
6767
468
776
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-6.9
40.
906.
272.
28-1
.04
-1.5
835
.44
-13.
987.
92-3
.15
-7.0
86.
648.
4019
.03
-1.1
03.
641.
63%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-3
.13
-1.8
70.
110.
512.
071.
447.
773.
215.
475.
05-4
.40
0.88
0.99
6.34
-1.1
03.
641.
63
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
(CO
NTI
NU
ED O
N N
EXT
PAG
E)
Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2012 dollars)
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
54 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 12
: Te
nnes
see
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
and
Sala
ry R
ate
by S
ecto
r, Se
ason
ally
Adj
uste
d (2
012
dolla
rs)
2017
:120
17:2
2017
:320
17:4
2018
:120
18:2
2018
:320
18:4
2019
:120
19:2
2019
:320
19:4
2020
:120
20:2
2017
2018
2019
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
PRO
FESS
ION
AL &
BU
SIN
ESS
SER
VIC
ES…
5287
552
829
5326
353
521
5646
954
421
5541
756
818
5723
957
452
5780
857
664
5783
860
988
5312
255
781
5754
1%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-2
.90
-0.3
53.
331.
9423
.92
-13.
737.
5210
.50
3.00
1.49
2.50
-0.9
91.
2123
.63
1.13
5.01
3.15
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-0.6
01.
723.
000.
486.
803.
014.
046.
161.
365.
574.
311.
491.
056.
161.
135.
013.
15
EDU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
4715
747
493
4714
847
138
4705
247
396
4669
047
966
4757
147
699
4737
647
466
4786
047
970
4723
447
276
4752
8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…0.
072.
88-2
.87
-0.0
8-0
.73
2.95
-5.8
211
.38
-3.2
51.
09-2
.68
0.76
3.36
0.93
1.06
0.09
0.53
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.62
2.90
0.76
-0.0
2-0
.22
-0.2
0-0
.97
1.75
1.10
0.64
1.47
-1.0
40.
610.
571.
060.
090.
53
LEIS
UR
E &
HO
SPIT
ALIT
Y……
……
……
……
…23
674
2369
323
917
2394
524
143
2420
124
906
2484
824
366
2466
324
576
2370
824
711
2150
623
807
2452
424
328
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
4.11
0.32
3.84
0.47
3.34
0.97
12.1
6-0
.93
-7.5
34.
97-1
.40
-13.
3918
.02
-42.
632.
973.
01-0
.80
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
3.37
2.47
3.89
2.17
1.98
2.15
4.13
3.77
0.92
1.91
-1.3
2-4
.58
1.42
-12.
802.
973.
01-0
.80
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
……
4128
541
779
4195
741
577
4133
741
502
4213
941
787
4200
041
931
4135
142
772
4379
744
558
4165
041
691
4201
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-1
.07
4.88
1.72
-3.5
7-2
.29
1.60
6.28
-3.3
02.
05-0
.66
-5.4
214
.47
9.94
7.13
-0.0
80.
100.
77%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-2
.56
0.62
1.25
0.44
0.13
-0.6
60.
430.
511.
601.
03-1
.87
2.36
4.28
6.26
-0.0
80.
100.
77
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…42
604
4344
643
244
4372
543
264
4356
543
693
4352
843
725
4371
844
012
4400
644
383
4363
243
255
4351
243
865
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-3.2
38.
15-1
.85
4.52
-4.1
52.
811.
19-1
.51
1.83
-0.0
72.
71-0
.05
3.47
-6.6
01.
680.
600.
81%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
292.
861.
791.
791.
550.
271.
04-0
.45
1.07
0.35
0.73
1.10
1.50
-0.2
01.
680.
600.
81
FED
ERAL
, CIV
ILIA
N…
……
……
……
……
…74
372
7468
774
983
7550
775
909
7606
176
079
7588
075
290
7466
374
172
7434
874
608
7555
674
887
7598
274
618
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
0.33
1.70
1.60
2.82
2.15
0.81
0.09
-1.0
4-3
.07
-3.2
9-2
.61
0.95
1.41
5.18
0.15
1.46
-1.8
0%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-1
.42
-0.3
00.
721.
612.
071.
841.
460.
49-0
.82
-1.8
4-2
.51
-2.0
2-0
.91
1.20
0.15
1.46
-1.8
0
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
…38
471
3940
439
166
3968
539
120
3945
639
589
3939
139
689
3972
740
085
4007
140
469
3938
639
182
3938
939
893
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-4.1
510
.05
-2.3
95.
40-5
.58
3.49
1.36
-1.9
93.
060.
383.
66-0
.15
4.04
-10.
292.
180.
531.
28%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
703.
762.
222.
071.
680.
131.
08-0
.74
1.45
0.69
1.25
1.73
1.97
-0.8
62.
180.
531.
28
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 55
Tabl
e 13
: Te
nnes
see
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
and
Sala
ry R
ate
by S
ecto
r, N
ot S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (c
urre
nt d
olla
rs)
2017
:120
17:2
2017
:320
17:4
2018
:120
18:2
2018
:320
18:4
2019
:120
19:2
2019
:320
19:4
2020
:120
20:2
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
4911
648
922
4934
549
425
5075
650
464
5132
750
774
5225
652
172
5215
451
542
5317
153
696
4920
250
830
5203
1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
553.
222.
802.
833.
343.
154.
022.
732.
953.
381.
611.
511.
752.
922.
853.
312.
36N
ATU
RAL
RES
OU
RC
ES, M
ININ
G A
ND
CO
NST
RU
CTI
ON
……
……
……
……
…58
821
5619
356
668
5976
559
621
5799
957
755
5818
062
434
5998
959
214
5969
363
494
5949
357
862
5838
960
332
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
3.89
4.01
4.81
3.36
1.36
3.21
1.92
-2.6
54.
723.
432.
522.
601.
70-0
.83
4.01
0.91
3.33
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G…
……
……
……
……
……
5944
159
463
5958
261
056
5932
559
605
6004
559
600
6035
060
258
6010
760
662
6132
363
323
5988
559
644
6034
4%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
412.
521.
963.
11-0
.19
0.24
0.78
-2.3
81.
731.
100.
101.
781.
615.
092.
50-0
.40
1.17
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
…57
869
5820
858
542
5988
559
702
5964
160
727
6011
960
866
6030
660
463
6150
562
652
6456
458
626
6004
760
785
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.64
2.69
2.40
3.65
3.17
2.46
3.73
0.39
1.95
1.12
-0.4
32.
312.
947.
062.
602.
421.
23N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
…62
275
6171
561
428
6313
758
659
5954
258
838
5867
559
422
6017
359
472
5919
059
009
6128
262
139
5892
859
564
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
3.76
2.22
1.17
2.15
-5.8
1-3
.52
-4.2
2-7
.07
1.30
1.06
1.08
0.88
-0.6
91.
842.
32-5
.17
1.08
TRAD
E, T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, U
TILI
TIES
……
4557
545
566
4575
845
447
4684
046
863
4755
546
188
4830
148
484
4754
946
234
4790
146
911
4558
646
862
4764
2%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…3.
062.
611.
082.
822.
782.
853.
931.
633.
123.
46-0
.01
0.10
-0.8
3-3
.24
2.38
2.80
1.67
WH
OLE
SALE
TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
7320
772
340
7256
874
096
7343
373
138
7321
872
008
7520
975
464
7471
073
128
7711
877
200
7305
372
949
7462
8%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…3.
912.
27-3
.73
2.08
0.31
1.10
0.90
-2.8
22.
423.
182.
041.
562.
542.
301.
06-0
.14
2.30
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
3103
130
944
3090
730
904
3181
232
008
3301
131
555
3291
932
745
3237
130
939
3194
630
935
3094
732
096
3224
4%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
862.
192.
392.
932.
523.
446.
812.
103.
482.
30-1
.94
-1.9
5-2
.96
-5.5
32.
593.
710.
46TR
ANSP
OR
TATI
ON
& U
TILI
TIES
……
……
5538
756
166
5655
454
727
5803
057
971
5795
956
582
5889
659
450
5711
356
712
5792
156
121
5570
957
635
5804
3%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
753.
153.
972.
954.
773.
212.
483.
391.
492.
55-1
.46
0.23
-1.6
6-5
.60
3.21
3.46
0.71
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
7115
463
952
6618
369
030
7382
675
060
7332
771
239
7380
773
551
7650
375
946
7577
376
678
6758
073
363
7495
2%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…14
.63
2.67
1.59
6.72
3.75
17.3
710
.79
3.20
-0.0
3-2
.01
4.33
6.61
2.66
4.25
6.35
8.56
2.17
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
6853
268
351
6941
370
475
7130
070
913
7657
174
210
7629
575
702
7429
776
110
7817
780
956
6919
373
249
7560
1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…-1
.13
-0.2
01.
722.
334.
043.
7510
.31
5.30
7.01
6.75
-2.9
72.
562.
476.
940.
675.
863.
21PR
OFE
SSIO
NAL
& B
USI
NES
S SE
RVI
CES
…56
685
5601
756
568
5599
661
696
5904
660
089
6068
263
385
6321
863
606
6275
664
958
6763
656
317
6037
863
241
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.44
3.51
4.64
2.27
8.84
5.41
6.22
8.37
2.74
7.06
5.85
3.42
2.48
6.99
2.95
7.21
4.74
EDU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
4971
750
377
5032
849
887
5057
051
435
5094
451
772
5185
652
493
5245
351
906
5308
753
119
5007
751
180
5217
7%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
684.
642.
421.
781.
722.
101.
223.
782.
542.
062.
960.
262.
371.
192.
872.
201.
95LE
ISU
RE
& H
OSP
ITAL
ITY…
……
……
……
…25
916
2448
924
825
2576
126
918
2561
126
436
2725
627
529
2653
126
489
2635
828
227
2317
925
248
2655
526
727
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
5.48
4.30
5.63
3.92
3.87
4.58
6.49
5.80
2.27
3.59
0.20
-3.3
02.
53-1
2.63
4.83
5.18
0.65
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
…43
976
4379
644
279
4452
244
892
4451
645
492
4561
646
297
4567
045
295
4734
049
063
4876
344
143
4512
946
150
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-0.4
92.
332.
872.
212.
081.
642.
742.
463.
132.
59-0
.43
3.78
5.97
6.77
1.72
2.23
2.26
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
4437
546
399
4729
845
354
4595
147
606
4899
746
040
4710
848
480
5010
147
386
4851
948
673
4585
747
148
4826
9%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
524.
543.
463.
523.
552.
603.
591.
512.
521.
842.
252.
922.
990.
403.
522.
822.
38FE
DER
AL, C
IVIL
IAN
……
……
……
……
……
7850
978
963
7965
380
347
8170
282
320
8260
382
293
8220
882
035
8172
381
959
8300
283
496
7936
882
230
8198
1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
711.
342.
313.
194.
074.
253.
702.
420.
62-0
.35
-1.0
6-0
.41
0.97
1.78
1.89
3.61
-0.3
0ST
ATE
& LO
CAL
……
……
……
……
……
…40
002
4213
743
002
4103
241
480
4316
944
580
4153
442
687
4410
745
829
4301
944
141
4399
241
543
4269
143
910
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
2.95
5.45
3.90
3.83
3.69
2.45
3.67
1.22
2.91
2.17
2.80
3.57
3.41
-0.2
64.
042.
762.
86
Dec
embe
r 202
0H
isto
rical
Dat
aAn
nual
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
56 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 14
: Te
nnes
see
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
and
Sala
ry R
ate
by S
ecto
r, Se
ason
ally
Adj
uste
d (c
urre
nt d
olla
rs)
2017
:120
17:2
2017
:320
17:4
2018
:120
18:2
2018
:320
18:4
2019
:120
19:2
2019
:320
19:4
2020
:120
20:2
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
4867
048
897
4923
550
006
5030
850
429
5121
251
361
5180
752
138
5203
952
067
5282
853
665
4920
250
828
5201
2%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…0.
691.
882.
796.
412.
440.
976.
351.
173.
522.
58-0
.76
0.22
5.97
6.49
2.85
3.30
2.33
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
2.52
3.15
2.82
2.92
3.37
3.13
4.02
2.71
2.98
3.39
1.61
1.38
1.97
2.93
2.85
3.30
2.33
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
, MIN
ING
AN
D C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N…
……
……
……
……
…56
963
5655
557
577
6000
357
848
5842
258
793
5831
360
596
6061
460
270
5993
062
351
5952
357
775
5834
460
353
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-7.4
6-2
.83
7.42
17.9
5-1
3.61
4.03
2.57
-3.2
316
.60
0.12
-2.2
5-2
.24
17.1
6-1
6.94
4.00
0.99
3.44
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
4.03
3.95
4.73
3.31
1.55
3.30
2.11
-2.8
24.
753.
752.
512.
772.
90-1
.80
4.00
0.99
3.44
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G…
……
……
……
……
……
…59
329
5943
859
652
6113
359
222
5954
060
130
5969
460
260
6014
360
214
6077
061
227
6323
559
888
5964
660
347
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
0.34
0.74
1.45
10.3
1-1
1.93
2.16
4.02
-2.8
73.
85-0
.78
0.47
3.74
3.05
13.7
82.
51-0
.40
1.17
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
2.45
2.45
1.98
3.13
-0.1
80.
170.
80-2
.35
1.75
1.01
0.14
1.80
1.60
5.14
2.51
-0.4
01.
17
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
5781
158
190
5857
359
942
5964
559
575
6079
160
190
6082
160
181
6055
761
589
6260
164
492
5862
960
050
6078
7%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-0
.09
2.65
2.66
9.69
-1.9
7-0
.47
8.42
-3.9
04.
26-4
.14
2.52
6.99
6.74
12.6
42.
602.
421.
23%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…1.
682.
612.
443.
663.
172.
383.
790.
411.
971.
02-0
.38
2.33
2.93
7.16
2.60
2.42
1.23
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…62
060
6167
861
570
6325
258
473
5947
758
958
5880
859
253
6007
359
600
5933
658
842
6117
262
140
5892
959
565
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
1.04
-2.4
4-0
.70
11.3
9-2
6.96
7.05
-3.4
5-1
.01
3.06
5.65
-3.1
1-1
.76
-3.2
916
.80
2.32
-5.1
71.
08%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…3.
802.
171.
162.
18-5
.78
-3.5
7-4
.24
-7.0
31.
331.
001.
090.
90-0
.69
1.83
2.32
-5.1
71.
08
TRAD
E, T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, U
TILI
TIES
……
4509
545
330
4564
246
320
4636
046
619
4740
347
075
4781
248
202
4739
146
936
4750
746
789
4559
746
864
4758
5%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…1.
212.
102.
786.
070.
352.
256.
90-2
.74
6.41
3.30
-6.5
6-3
.79
4.96
-5.9
12.
432.
781.
54%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…3.
142.
491.
073.
032.
812.
843.
861.
633.
133.
40-0
.03
-0.3
0-0
.64
-2.9
32.
432.
781.
54
WH
OLE
SALE
TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
…72
897
7238
172
671
7432
573
165
7319
973
320
7218
874
959
7548
574
793
7345
076
758
7706
673
068
7296
874
672
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
1.13
-2.8
01.
619.
42-6
.10
0.19
0.66
-6.0
316
.26
2.84
-3.6
2-6
.99
19.2
71.
621.
09-0
.14
2.33
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
3.92
2.24
-3.7
32.
250.
371.
130.
89-2
.88
2.45
3.12
2.01
1.75
2.40
2.09
1.09
-0.1
42.
33
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
3066
230
824
3078
131
569
3144
031
888
3285
032
233
3253
832
618
3220
931
448
3161
730
891
3095
932
103
3220
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…0.
732.
14-0
.56
10.6
3-1
.62
5.82
12.6
2-7
.31
3.84
0.99
-4.9
2-9
.12
2.17
-8.8
72.
673.
690.
31%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…3.
062.
082.
373.
152.
543.
456.
722.
103.
492.
29-1
.95
-2.4
3-2
.83
-5.2
92.
673.
690.
31
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N &
UTI
LITI
ES…
……
…54
711
5549
556
430
5614
557
329
5725
157
779
5807
058
196
5865
556
926
5783
957
532
5582
955
695
5760
757
904
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
2.05
5.86
6.91
-2.0
08.
71-0
.54
3.74
2.03
0.87
3.19
-11.
286.
57-2
.10
-11.
333.
193.
430.
51%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
652.
963.
993.
144.
793.
162.
393.
431.
512.
45-1
.48
-0.4
0-1
.14
-4.8
23.
193.
430.
51
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…70
585
6465
165
991
6947
673
126
7588
373
054
7172
173
089
7387
576
225
7638
375
223
7709
867
676
7344
674
893
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
40.1
7-2
9.62
8.55
22.8
622
.73
15.9
5-1
4.10
-7.1
07.
854.
3713
.34
0.83
-5.9
410
.35
6.40
8.53
1.97
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
14.4
72.
661.
677.
103.
6017
.37
10.7
03.
23-0
.05
-2.6
54.
346.
502.
924.
366.
408.
531.
97
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
…68
103
6840
769
739
7058
970
873
7098
376
873
7429
875
833
7570
274
582
7608
177
879
8101
869
210
7325
775
550
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-4.8
81.
808.
024.
971.
620.
6237
.56
-12.
748.
53-0
.69
-5.7
88.
289.
7917
.13
0.68
5.85
3.13
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-1.1
7-0
.25
1.76
2.36
4.07
3.77
10.2
35.
257.
006.
65-2
.98
2.40
2.70
7.02
0.68
5.85
3.13
(CO
NTI
NU
ED O
N N
EXT
PAG
E)
Dece
mbe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 57
Tabl
e 14
: Te
nnes
see
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
and
Sala
ry R
ate
by S
ecto
r, Se
ason
ally
Adj
uste
d (c
urre
nt d
olla
rs)
2017
:120
17:2
2017
:320
17:4
2018
:120
18:2
2018
:320
18:4
2019
:120
19:2
2019
:320
19:4
2020
:120
20:2
2017
2018
2019
Dece
mbe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
PRO
FESS
ION
AL &
BU
SIN
ESS
SER
VIC
ES…
5574
155
816
5650
457
147
6069
558
819
6012
861
868
6241
563
039
6365
163
735
6413
267
352
5630
260
378
6321
0%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-0
.75
0.53
5.02
4.63
27.2
5-1
1.80
9.20
12.0
93.
584.
063.
940.
532.
5121
.65
2.94
7.24
4.69
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.41
3.39
4.69
2.33
8.89
5.38
6.41
8.26
2.83
7.18
5.86
3.02
2.75
6.84
2.94
7.24
4.69
EDU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
4971
350
178
5001
750
332
5057
451
226
5066
052
229
5187
252
339
5216
552
464
5306
852
976
5006
051
172
5221
0%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…2.
283.
79-1
.28
2.54
1.94
5.25
-4.3
512
.98
-2.7
13.
65-1
.32
2.31
4.69
-0.6
92.
862.
222.
03%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
664.
592.
421.
821.
732.
091.
293.
772.
572.
172.
970.
452.
311.
222.
862.
222.
03
LEIS
UR
E &
HO
SPIT
ALIT
Y……
……
……
……
…24
957
2503
225
372
2556
725
950
2615
727
023
2705
626
569
2706
227
060
2620
527
400
2375
025
232
2654
626
724
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
6.41
1.21
5.54
3.11
6.12
3.23
13.9
20.
50-7
.01
7.63
-0.0
2-1
2.06
19.5
3-4
3.55
4.81
5.21
0.67
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
5.46
4.16
5.60
4.05
3.98
4.49
6.50
5.82
2.39
3.46
0.14
-3.1
53.
13-1
2.24
4.81
5.21
0.67
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
……
4352
344
141
4451
044
394
4443
244
856
4572
145
502
4579
846
009
4553
147
275
4856
349
207
4414
245
127
4615
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…1.
115.
813.
38-1
.04
0.34
3.87
7.94
-1.9
12.
631.
86-4
.09
16.2
311
.35
5.41
1.72
2.23
2.27
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-0.5
82.
272.
922.
282.
091.
622.
722.
493.
072.
57-0
.42
3.90
6.04
6.95
1.72
2.23
2.27
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
4491
345
903
4587
546
687
4650
247
085
4740
847
397
4767
947
970
4846
148
639
4921
348
185
4584
447
098
4818
7%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
…-1
.09
9.11
-0.2
47.
27-1
.58
5.11
2.77
-0.0
92.
402.
474.
151.
484.
80-8
.10
3.50
2.73
2.31
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
2.32
4.55
3.47
3.67
3.54
2.58
3.34
1.52
2.53
1.88
2.22
2.62
3.22
0.45
3.50
2.73
2.31
FED
ERAL
, CIV
ILIA
N…
……
……
……
……
…78
403
7890
979
545
8062
381
591
8220
882
547
8262
582
098
8192
581
669
8217
682
727
8344
179
370
8224
381
967
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
2.55
2.61
3.26
5.53
4.89
3.06
1.66
0.38
-2.5
3-0
.84
-1.2
42.
512.
713.
501.
953.
62-0
.34
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.58
1.34
2.38
3.48
4.07
4.18
3.77
2.48
0.62
-0.3
4-1
.06
-0.5
40.
771.
851.
953.
62-0
.34
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
…40
557
4163
241
549
4237
442
048
4264
542
955
4289
343
277
4359
044
137
4429
044
873
4349
641
528
4263
543
824
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
-2.0
311
.03
-0.7
98.
17-3
.04
5.80
2.94
-0.5
83.
642.
935.
111.
395.
37-1
1.72
4.01
2.67
2.79
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
2.74
5.46
3.90
3.94
3.68
2.43
3.38
1.22
2.92
2.22
2.75
3.26
3.69
-0.2
24.
012.
672.
79
Boyd
Cen
ter f
or B
usin
ess
and
Econ
omic
Res
earc
h, U
nive
rsity
of T
enne
ssee
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
58 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 15
: Te
nnes
see
Civ
ilian
Lab
or F
orce
and
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate,
Not
Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
CIV
ILIA
N L
ABO
R F
OR
CE
(TH
OU
S)…
……
……
3182
3205
3198
3221
3255
3261
3280
3313
3344
3356
3366
3356
3239
3290
3185
3254
3345
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.93
1.98
1.79
2.07
2.28
1.73
2.58
2.88
2.73
2.92
2.61
1.27
-3.1
5-1
.96
1.98
2.17
2.78
EMPL
OYE
D P
ERSO
NS
(TH
OU
S)…
……
…30
6930
8730
9231
0031
4331
4131
7531
9432
3332
3932
6032
3428
5330
1730
6531
4032
32%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
963.
413.
072.
902.
421.
742.
683.
032.
873.
112.
671.
26-1
1.76
-6.8
43.
002.
432.
92
UN
EMPL
OYE
D P
ERSO
NS
(TH
OU
S)…
……
114
118
106
121
112
120
105
119
111
117
106
121
386
273
120
114
113
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-19.
74-2
5.17
-25.
32-1
5.37
-1.4
21.
49-0
.54
-1.0
6-1
.14
-1.9
80.
781.
6124
8.18
132.
89-1
8.49
-4.6
6-0
.90
PAR
TIC
IPAT
ION
RAT
E (P
ERC
ENT)
……
……
…59
.359
.559
.259
.560
.059
.960
.160
.661
.161
.161
.260
.958
.659
.459
.259
.961
.0%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…0.
770.
810.
620.
931.
160.
651.
531.
941.
842.
061.
760.
42-3
.96
-2.7
80.
821.
071.
90
UN
EMPL
OYM
ENT
RAT
E (P
ERC
ENT)
……
……
3.6
3.7
3.3
3.7
3.4
3.7
3.2
3.6
3.3
3.5
3.1
3.6
11.9
8.3
3.8
3.5
3.4
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 59
Tabl
e 16
: Te
nnes
see
Civ
ilian
Lab
or F
orce
and
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate,
Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
CIV
ILIA
N L
ABO
R F
OR
CE
(TH
OU
S)…
……
…31
7431
9632
1132
2532
4432
6032
8833
1733
3533
5533
6733
6932
2732
9131
8532
5433
43%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
…1.
762.
871.
901.
742.
362.
033.
433.
552.
232.
381.
510.
27-1
5.89
8.15
1.98
2.17
2.74
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
1.99
1.87
1.85
2.06
2.21
2.00
2.39
2.84
2.81
2.89
2.41
1.59
-3.2
5-1
.91
1.98
2.17
2.74
EMPL
OYE
D P
ERSO
NS
(TH
OU
S)…
……
…30
5430
8530
9931
1031
2831
4631
7632
0332
2032
4232
5632
5628
3730
2230
6531
4032
30%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
…4.
154.
091.
861.
372.
312.
393.
853.
472.
102.
781.
690.
10-4
2.38
28.6
53.
012.
432.
88%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
…2.
963.
253.
172.
862.
401.
982.
483.
002.
953.
052.
511.
66-1
1.88
-6.8
03.
012.
432.
88
UN
EMPL
OYE
D P
ERSO
NS
(TH
OU
S)…
…12
011
111
211
511
611
411
211
411
511
311
211
339
026
912
011
511
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
……
……
…-4
1.34
-24.
862.
8112
.13
3.80
-7.4
7-7
.65
5.87
5.88
-8.4
8-3
.78
5.09
1402
4.51
-77.
28-1
8.80
-4.5
2-1
.08
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
-17.
92-2
5.74
-24.
78-1
5.57
-2.6
22.
58-0
.14
-1.5
6-1
.07
-1.3
4-0
.33
-0.5
123
8.12
138.
68-1
8.80
-4.5
2-1
.08
PAR
TIC
IPAT
ION
RAT
E (P
ERC
ENT)
……
……
59.1
59.4
59.5
59.6
59.7
59.9
60.3
60.7
60.9
61.1
61.2
61.1
58.4
59.4
59.2
59.9
61.0
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
……
……
……
0.62
1.73
0.79
0.54
1.32
1.04
2.49
2.78
1.36
1.51
0.65
-0.5
8-1
6.59
7.26
0.82
1.07
1.85
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
0.82
0.70
0.69
0.92
1.09
0.92
1.34
1.90
1.91
2.03
1.57
0.73
-4.0
6-2
.73
0.82
1.07
1.85
UN
EMPL
OYM
ENT
RAT
E (P
ERC
ENT)
……
…3.
83.
53.
53.
63.
63.
53.
43.
43.
53.
43.
33.
412
.18.
23.
83.
53.
4
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
60 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 17
: Te
nnes
see
Taxa
ble
Sale
s, N
ot S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (m
illio
ns o
f 201
2 do
llars
)
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L TA
XABL
E SA
LES…
……
……
……
……
……
2966
429
749
3242
428
352
3095
930
689
3363
629
210
3225
832
161
3547
129
136
3145
333
036
1183
2412
3635
1291
00%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
2.78
4.65
5.13
7.04
4.37
3.16
3.74
3.02
4.20
4.80
5.46
-0.2
5-2
.50
2.72
3.07
4.49
4.42
AUTO
DEA
LER
S……
……
……
……
……
……
…31
1531
3629
6630
3031
3431
4430
1630
0332
1933
2531
3028
8432
4933
8812
152
1232
312
676
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…3.
18-1
.36
0.01
3.25
0.59
0.25
1.69
-0.8
82.
725.
753.
77-3
.98
0.95
1.89
0.26
1.41
2.86
PUR
CH
ASES
FR
OM
MAN
UFA
CTU
RER
S….
1234
1240
1611
1111
1338
1324
1733
1226
1398
1366
1905
1318
1366
1481
5179
5505
5895
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…0.
130.
484.
901.
538.
376.
797.
5810
.32
4.54
3.17
9.93
7.53
-2.3
08.
483.
316.
307.
07
MIS
C D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…51
7350
0854
9045
8954
9952
9855
5647
7855
9355
1560
0448
7760
9960
8620
166
2094
221
890
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…2.
364.
077.
302.
076.
315.
801.
214.
121.
714.
108.
062.
089.
0510
.35
4.23
3.85
4.53
EATI
NG
AN
D D
RIN
KIN
G P
LAC
ES…
……
……
3200
3097
3016
2960
3238
3154
3300
3249
3543
3499
3463
2860
2691
3106
1219
212
652
1375
5%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
2.15
0.80
-0.4
22.
811.
211.
859.
409.
749.
4210
.94
4.95
-11.
97-2
4.07
-11.
230.
653.
778.
71
FOO
D S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
2754
2935
3183
2832
2893
2935
3152
2812
2951
2986
3280
3076
3319
3241
1144
711
813
1202
8%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
2.52
6.58
5.21
9.95
5.06
0.01
-0.9
5-0
.73
2.00
1.73
4.04
9.41
12.4
78.
553.
503.
191.
82
LIQ
UO
R S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
…21
720
924
519
622
021
826
821
523
323
627
823
929
829
385
790
196
1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-10.
11-1
.74
-3.0
64.
351.
474.
409.
449.
865.
888.
263.
8811
.19
28.2
524
.17
-8.1
25.
096.
73
HO
TELS
AN
D M
OTE
LS…
……
……
……
……
…94
695
285
467
796
192
898
889
411
6911
5810
6973
041
071
034
1535
5442
89%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
0.21
-1.6
30.
402.
101.
61-2
.52
15.7
432
.00
21.5
524
.72
8.20
-18.
30-6
4.89
-38.
67-1
.39
4.08
20.6
6
OTH
ER R
ETAI
L AN
D S
ERVI
CE…
……
……
…87
6288
6410
307
8754
9297
9328
1078
489
0597
8296
5211
407
9384
1017
210
591
3593
638
163
3974
6%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
1.23
5.02
4.97
9.39
6.11
5.23
4.62
1.73
5.22
3.47
5.78
5.37
3.98
9.74
2.39
6.20
4.15
MIS
C N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
2401
2263
2639
2194
2352
2307
2778
2190
2427
2390
2828
2025
2082
2377
9330
9630
9835
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…1.
51-0
.59
-1.1
58.
25-2
.07
1.92
5.26
-0.1
83.
213.
591.
81-7
.55
-14.
21-0
.53
-1.9
23.
222.
13
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, C
OM
MU
NIC
ATIO
N…
…18
6320
4621
1520
0920
2820
5320
6119
3819
4320
3521
0817
4317
6617
6276
5081
5180
25%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
21.7
138
.37
33.9
823
.48
8.86
0.37
-2.5
2-3
.50
-4.1
7-0
.88
2.25
-10.
09-9
.14
-13.
4224
.61
6.55
-1.5
5
PER
CAP
ITA
($)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
4422
4434
4833
4188
4573
4533
4968
4277
4724
4710
5194
4231
4567
4797
1763
718
262
1890
6%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
1.81
3.66
4.13
6.07
3.42
2.23
2.80
2.14
3.30
3.90
4.55
-1.0
9-3
.31
1.86
2.09
3.54
3.52
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 61
Tabl
e 18
: Te
nnes
see
Taxa
ble
Sale
s, S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (m
illio
ns o
f 201
2 do
llars
)
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L TA
XABL
E SA
LES…
……
……
……
……
……
2944
429
925
3018
730
636
3080
930
863
3122
031
653
3215
232
295
3285
631
610
3144
333
207
1181
6912
3528
1289
57%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
12.1
36.
693.
566.
082.
280.
704.
725.
666.
451.
807.
13-1
4.33
-2.1
024
.40
2.99
4.54
4.39
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…2.
974.
594.
887.
074.
643.
133.
423.
324.
364.
645.
24-0
.14
-2.2
12.
822.
994.
544.
39
AUTO
DEA
LER
S……
……
……
……
……
……
…30
5430
2030
6531
1630
7030
2931
0630
9731
5332
0432
1829
7831
8232
6412
141
1232
112
671
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…7.
05-4
.38
6.10
6.79
-5.7
4-5
.24
10.6
2-1
.24
7.50
6.57
1.77
-26.
6130
.28
10.7
30.
261.
482.
84%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
3.16
-1.2
3-0
.61
3.77
0.53
0.30
1.35
-0.6
12.
715.
773.
59-3
.82
0.91
1.88
0.26
1.48
2.84
PUR
CH
ASES
FR
OM
MAN
UFA
CTU
RER
S….
1261
1285
1321
1317
1375
1385
1408
1450
1447
1435
1539
1560
1417
1556
5168
5486
5869
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-1
1.82
8.09
11.5
6-1
.13
18.6
73.
036.
6812
.43
-0.8
6-3
.28
32.3
35.
66-3
1.93
45.5
63.
406.
147.
00%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
1.04
1.74
3.50
1.26
9.06
7.76
6.56
10.0
45.
213.
569.
297.
60-2
.05
8.49
3.40
6.14
7.00
MIS
C D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…49
4650
0351
9451
1452
7352
9352
3453
4153
7055
0556
4554
6358
5760
6920
144
2091
421
861
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-4
.47
4.68
16.1
8-5
.99
13.0
11.
56-4
.40
8.40
2.20
10.4
410
.60
-12.
2832
.06
15.3
14.
213.
824.
53%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
2.72
4.10
6.79
2.23
6.61
5.81
0.78
4.43
1.84
4.00
7.86
2.30
9.06
10.2
54.
213.
824.
53
EATI
NG
AN
D D
RIN
KIN
G P
LAC
ES…
……
……
3078
3067
3022
3103
3125
3123
3291
3410
3436
3455
3444
3007
2617
3057
1218
712
643
1374
4%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
7.80
-1.4
3-5
.67
11.1
42.
90-0
.26
23.3
115
.24
3.07
2.22
-1.2
7-4
1.88
-42.
6486
.22
0.61
3.74
8.72
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…2.
110.
96-0
.64
2.73
1.55
1.85
8.90
9.89
9.94
10.6
24.
64-1
1.82
-23.
84-1
1.52
0.61
3.74
8.72
FOO
D S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
2806
2940
2974
2979
2946
2944
2948
2953
3002
3001
3067
3229
3374
3262
1143
411
818
1202
3%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
14.3
620
.50
4.78
0.57
-4.2
7-0
.26
0.49
0.63
6.88
-0.1
59.
0622
.89
19.2
5-1
2.70
3.41
3.36
1.74
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…2.
536.
665.
289.
785.
000.
15-0
.89
-0.8
71.
891.
924.
039.
3612
.39
8.68
3.41
3.36
1.74
LIQ
UO
R S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
…21
821
921
321
722
022
823
423
823
224
724
426
529
830
685
789
996
1%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
24.4
01.
86-1
0.92
7.03
6.67
15.6
810
.37
7.83
-10.
0627
.85
-5.2
440
.24
58.8
812
.19
-8.4
74.
916.
92%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-10.
79-1
.93
-2.7
14.
840.
894.
159.
8810
.08
5.49
8.16
4.11
11.1
828
.18
24.0
6-8
.47
4.91
6.92
HO
TELS
AN
D M
OTE
LS…
……
……
……
……
…86
087
784
683
587
886
596
510
9610
8010
8110
3389
338
366
134
0235
4242
90%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
21.5
68.
40-1
3.44
-5.2
622
.18
-5.8
654
.87
66.7
3-5
.82
0.57
-16.
83-4
4.05
-96.
6378
9.32
-1.6
04.
1021
.11
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…-0
.09
-0.5
3-0
.98
1.96
2.09
-1.4
513
.98
31.2
823
.01
25.0
67.
06-1
8.52
-64.
57-3
8.90
-1.6
04.
1021
.11
OTH
ER R
ETAI
L AN
D S
ERVI
CE…
……
……
…89
0891
3491
8294
7494
8395
8096
0196
5099
9298
9910
149
1017
210
403
1085
235
885
3813
839
690
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…11
.93
10.5
32.
1113
.33
0.38
4.18
0.89
2.02
14.9
9-3
.67
10.4
50.
949.
3818
.39
2.28
6.28
4.07
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…1.
454.
535.
079.
396.
454.
894.
571.
865.
383.
335.
705.
424.
119.
622.
286.
284.
07
MIS
C N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
2433
2350
2309
2421
2387
2388
2424
2425
2468
2469
2465
2246
2119
2453
9317
9621
9828
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…42
.94
-12.
93-6
.83
20.9
1-5
.48
0.20
6.15
0.15
7.32
0.01
-0.5
1-3
1.10
-20.
8179
.59
-2.0
33.
272.
15%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
1.71
-0.9
1-1
.49
8.82
-1.8
71.
635.
000.
173.
403.
361.
70-7
.38
-14.
16-0
.63
-2.0
33.
272.
15
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, C
OM
MU
NIC
ATIO
N…
…18
8120
3020
6120
6120
5220
2620
0919
9419
7220
0020
5317
9617
9417
2776
3481
4880
20%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
63.8
935
.56
6.37
-0.0
6-1
.71
-4.9
5-3
.38
-2.8
5-4
.49
5.95
11.0
6-4
1.50
-0.4
3-1
4.05
24.4
26.
73-1
.58
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…22
.00
37.4
734
.02
23.9
79.
09-0
.17
-2.5
4-3
.23
-3.9
2-1
.28
2.22
-9.9
5-9
.01
-13.
6524
.42
6.73
-1.5
8
PER
CAP
ITA
($)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
4389
4461
4500
4525
4551
4559
4612
4635
4708
4729
4811
4590
4566
4822
1761
418
246
1888
5%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
12.1
36.
693.
562.
292.
280.
704.
722.
086.
451.
807.
13-1
7.16
-2.1
024
.40
2.01
3.59
3.50
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…1.
993.
593.
886.
103.
692.
202.
492.
433.
463.
744.
33-0
.97
-3.0
31.
962.
013.
593.
50
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2012 dollars)
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
62 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 19
: Te
nnes
see
Taxa
ble
Sale
s, N
ot S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (m
illio
ns o
f cur
rent
dol
lars
)
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L TA
XABL
E SA
LES…
……
……
……
……
……
3134
131
559
3462
130
474
3346
133
298
3662
531
851
3539
635
412
3920
632
306
3473
536
857
1254
4413
3858
1418
64%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
4.48
6.37
7.07
9.14
6.76
5.51
5.79
4.52
5.78
6.35
7.04
1.43
-1.8
74.
084.
926.
715.
98
AUTO
DEA
LER
S……
……
……
……
……
……
…32
9133
2731
6732
5733
8734
1132
8432
7535
3236
6134
5931
9835
8837
7912
879
1333
913
927
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…4.
870.
271.
855.
272.
902.
533.
700.
564.
287.
325.
34-2
.36
1.60
3.24
2.05
3.57
4.41
PUR
CH
ASES
FR
OM
MAN
UFA
CTU
RER
S….
1304
1315
1720
1194
1446
1436
1887
1337
1534
1504
2106
1462
1509
1653
5493
5963
6480
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…1.
772.
136.
833.
5110
.86
9.22
9.71
11.9
26.
134.
7011
.58
9.35
-1.6
79.
915.
158.
568.
67
MIS
C D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…54
6553
1258
6149
3259
4457
4860
5052
1061
3760
7266
3654
0867
3667
9021
378
2267
424
056
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…4.
045.
789.
274.
078.
768.
213.
215.
633.
265.
649.
693.
809.
7511
.81
6.10
6.06
6.09
EATI
NG
AN
D D
RIN
KIN
G P
LAC
ES…
……
……
3380
3285
3220
3182
3500
3422
3593
3543
3888
3853
3828
3171
2971
3466
1292
213
697
1511
1%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
3.83
2.46
1.41
4.82
3.53
4.17
11.5
711
.33
11.0
912
.59
6.53
-10.
49-2
3.57
-10.
052.
446.
0010
.32
FOO
D S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
2910
3113
3398
3044
3127
3185
3433
3066
3238
3288
3625
3411
3665
3616
1213
712
788
1321
7%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
4.21
8.33
7.14
12.1
07.
482.
291.
010.
713.
553.
245.
6011
.26
13.2
09.
995.
365.
373.
35
LIQ
UO
R S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
…22
922
126
121
023
723
629
123
425
525
930
726
533
032
690
997
510
57%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-8.6
3-0
.13
-1.2
86.
403.
816.
7811
.61
11.4
57.
499.
865.
4513
.07
29.0
825
.81
-6.4
57.
348.
31
HO
TELS
AN
D M
OTE
LS…
……
……
……
……
…10
0010
1091
172
810
3910
0710
7697
412
8212
7511
8280
945
379
236
2038
5047
13%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
1.86
-0.0
12.
254.
103.
94-0
.30
18.0
333
.91
23.4
026
.57
9.83
-16.
92-6
4.66
-37.
850.
366.
3322
.42
OTH
ER R
ETAI
L AN
D S
ERVI
CE…
……
……
…92
5794
0411
006
9409
1004
810
121
1174
297
1110
734
1062
712
608
1040
511
233
1181
638
103
4132
143
680
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…2.
896.
746.
9011
.54
8.54
7.62
6.69
3.20
6.82
5.01
7.37
7.15
4.65
11.1
94.
238.
445.
71
MIS
C N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
2537
2401
2818
2358
2542
2503
3025
2388
2663
2631
3126
2245
2300
2652
9892
1042
810
808
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…3.
181.
040.
6710
.37
0.18
4.25
7.35
1.26
4.78
5.12
3.35
-5.9
9-1
3.65
0.79
-0.1
65.
413.
65
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, C
OM
MU
NIC
ATIO
N…
…19
6821
7022
5821
5921
9222
2822
4521
1321
3222
4123
3019
3219
5019
6681
1188
2388
16%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
23.7
240
.65
36.4
525
.90
11.3
62.
66-0
.59
-2.1
1-2
.71
0.59
3.79
-8.5
7-8
.56
-12.
2726
.90
8.78
-0.0
7
PER
CAP
ITA
($)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
4672
4704
5161
4501
4943
4918
5410
4664
5183
5186
5741
4691
5044
5352
1869
819
772
2077
5%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
3.48
5.36
6.05
8.15
5.80
4.56
4.83
3.62
4.87
5.44
6.13
0.58
-2.6
93.
213.
925.
745.
07
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 63
Tabl
e 20
: Te
nnes
see
Taxa
ble
Sale
s, S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d (m
illio
ns o
f cur
rent
dol
lars
)
2017
:220
17:3
2017
:420
18:1
2018
:220
18:3
2018
:420
19:1
2019
:220
19:3
2019
:420
20:1
2020
:220
20:3
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L TA
XABL
E SA
LES…
……
……
……
……
……
3110
931
745
3223
332
929
3329
933
486
3399
634
515
3527
935
560
3631
535
050
3472
437
047
1252
5113
3710
1416
70%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
13.1
28.
446.
288.
934.
572.
276.
226.
269.
153.
228.
77-1
3.23
-3.6
729
.57
4.85
6.75
5.95
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…4.
676.
316.
809.
177.
045.
485.
474.
825.
956.
196.
821.
55-1
.57
4.18
4.85
6.75
5.95
AUTO
DEA
LER
S……
……
……
……
……
……
…32
2732
0432
7333
4933
1832
8633
8233
7734
6035
2735
5733
0235
1436
4112
868
1333
613
920
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…8.
00-2
.82
8.89
9.66
-3.6
3-3
.76
12.2
1-0
.69
10.2
28.
063.
34-2
5.67
28.1
915
.33
2.05
3.64
4.38
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…4.
860.
401.
225.
812.
842.
583.
360.
834.
277.
335.
15-2
.20
1.56
3.23
2.05
3.64
4.38
PUR
CH
ASES
FR
OM
MAN
UFA
CTU
RER
S….
1332
1364
1411
1416
1486
1503
1533
1581
1587
1580
1701
1730
1565
1736
5478
5938
6448
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-1
1.04
9.86
14.5
01.
5221
.33
4.64
8.21
13.0
61.
65-1
.93
34.3
77.
02-3
3.02
51.6
15.
248.
408.
59%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
2.70
3.42
5.40
3.24
11.5
710
.22
8.67
11.6
46.
815.
0910
.93
9.42
-1.4
29.
935.
248.
408.
59
MIS
C D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…52
2553
0755
4554
9756
9957
4356
9958
2458
9260
6162
4060
5864
6867
7121
351
2263
824
017
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…-3
.62
6.39
19.2
3-3
.47
15.5
43.
15-3
.02
9.02
4.79
11.9
912
.31
-11.
1629
.94
20.1
16.
086.
036.
09%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
4.41
5.81
8.76
4.23
9.06
8.22
2.77
5.95
3.39
5.54
9.48
4.02
9.77
11.7
16.
086.
036.
09
EATI
NG
AN
D D
RIN
KIN
G P
LAC
ES…
……
……
3252
3253
3227
3335
3378
3389
3584
3718
3770
3804
3806
3334
2890
3410
1291
613
685
1509
9%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
8.75
0.18
-3.1
914
.13
5.20
1.30
25.0
815
.89
5.69
3.65
0.25
-41.
13-4
3.56
93.9
62.
415.
9610
.33
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…3.
792.
621.
184.
753.
884.
1711
.06
11.4
811
.61
12.2
66.
21-1
0.33
-23.
35-1
0.35
2.41
5.96
10.3
3
FOO
D S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
2965
3119
3176
3202
3184
3195
3210
3220
3294
3304
3390
3580
3726
3639
1212
012
791
1320
8%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
15.3
822
.48
7.54
3.27
-2.1
31.
301.
941.
199.
591.
2510
.73
24.4
717
.34
-9.0
75.
275.
543.
26%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
4.22
8.42
7.22
11.9
37.
412.
441.
080.
563.
453.
435.
5911
.20
13.1
210
.12
5.27
5.54
3.26
LIQ
UO
R S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
…23
123
322
723
323
824
825
526
025
527
226
929
432
934
290
897
310
56%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
25.5
13.
53-8
.58
9.91
9.06
17.4
911
.95
8.43
-7.7
829
.64
-3.7
842
.04
56.3
316
.86
-6.8
07.
158.
50%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
-9.3
2-0
.32
-0.9
26.
893.
206.
5212
.05
11.6
87.
099.
765.
6813
.06
29.0
125
.70
-6.8
07.
158.
50
HO
TELS
AN
D M
OTE
LS…
……
……
……
……
…90
893
190
489
794
993
810
5011
9511
8511
9111
4199
042
273
736
0638
3447
12%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
22.6
410
.17
-11.
16-2
.71
24.9
1-4
.39
57.1
067
.67
-3.4
41.
98-1
5.55
-43.
33-9
6.69
826.
280.
166.
3422
.88
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…1.
551.
110.
843.
954.
430.
8016
.23
33.1
824
.88
26.9
18.
67-1
7.14
-64.
34-3
8.09
0.16
6.34
22.8
8
OTH
ER R
ETAI
L AN
D S
ERVI
CE…
……
……
…94
1296
9098
0410
183
1024
910
395
1045
510
522
1096
410
900
1121
711
279
1148
912
107
3803
641
281
4360
4%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
12.9
212
.34
4.80
16.3
82.
625.
812.
342.
6017
.90
-2.3
212
.15
2.24
7.63
23.3
24.
128.
535.
63%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
3.12
6.25
7.01
11.5
38.
897.
276.
643.
336.
984.
867.
297.
204.
7811
.07
4.12
8.53
5.63
MIS
C N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
2570
2493
2465
2602
2580
2591
2640
2645
2709
2718
2725
2491
2340
2737
9874
1041
410
796
% C
hg P
rev
Qtr
SAAR
……
…..…
……
……
…44
.21
-11.
50-4
.38
24.1
6-3
.37
1.76
7.67
0.72
10.0
41.
411.
02-3
0.21
-22.
0887
.05
-0.2
75.
463.
67%
Chg
Sam
e Q
tr La
st Y
r……
……
……
……
3.38
0.72
0.33
10.9
50.
383.
957.
081.
624.
984.
893.
23-5
.82
-13.
610.
68-0
.27
5.46
3.67
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, C
OM
MU
NIC
ATIO
N…
…19
8721
5322
0122
1522
1821
9821
8721
7521
6322
0222
7019
9119
8119
2780
9488
1988
10%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
65.3
437
.79
9.17
2.62
0.49
-3.4
7-1
.99
-2.3
1-2
.07
7.43
12.7
7-4
0.75
-2.0
2-1
0.48
26.7
08.
96-0
.10
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…24
.01
39.7
336
.49
26.4
011
.60
2.10
-0.6
1-1
.83
-2.4
60.
183.
76-8
.43
-8.4
2-1
2.51
26.7
08.
96-0
.10
PER
CAP
ITA
($)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
4637
4732
4805
4864
4919
4946
5022
5054
5166
5207
5318
5090
5042
5380
1867
019
750
2074
6%
Chg
Pre
v Q
tr SA
AR…
……
..……
……
……
13.1
28.
446.
285.
044.
572.
276.
222.
659.
153.
228.
77-1
6.10
-3.6
729
.57
3.85
5.79
5.04
% C
hg S
ame
Qtr
Last
Yr…
……
……
……
…3.
675.
305.
798.
186.
074.
534.
523.
925.
045.
285.
910.
70-2
.40
3.31
3.85
5.79
5.04
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Annu
al
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
64 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 1:
Sel
ecte
d U.
S. a
nd T
enne
ssee
Eco
nom
ic In
dica
tors
, Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TN G
DP
(Mil2
012$
) SAA
R…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…27
2055
.426
2983
.126
6574
.227
4618
.628
3481
.928
7302
.829
1928
.130
3451
.130
8318
.531
5005
.932
3520
.232
8787
.5Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…0.
91-3
.33
1.37
3.02
3.23
1.35
1.61
3.95
1.60
2.17
2.70
1.63
US
GD
P (B
il201
2$) S
AAR
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
1560
4.7
1520
8.8
1559
8.8
1584
0.7
1619
7.0
1649
5.4
1691
2.0
1743
2.2
1773
0.5
1814
4.1
1868
7.8
1909
1.7
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-0.1
4-2
.54
2.56
1.55
2.25
1.84
2.53
3.08
1.71
2.33
3.00
2.16
US
GD
P (B
il$) S
AAR
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…...
1471
2.8
1444
8.9
1499
2.1
1554
2.6
1619
7.0
1678
4.9
1752
7.3
1823
8.3
1874
5.1
1954
3.0
2061
1.9
2143
3.2
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
1.81
-1.7
93.
763.
674.
213.
634.
424.
062.
784.
265.
473.
98TN
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
(MIL
2012
$) S
AAR
……
......
......
......
.23
1050
2296
0523
6748
2452
9625
3604
2526
1425
9525
2726
5027
8454
2863
1829
5343
3026
54Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…0.
62-0
.63
3.11
3.61
3.39
-0.3
92.
745.
062.
132.
823.
152.
48U
S PE
RSO
NAL
INC
OM
E (B
IL20
12$)
SAA
R…
……
…...
......
....
1321
112
816
1311
413
580
1400
913
992
1457
915
260
1552
115
991
1649
216
888
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
0.60
-2.9
92.
333.
553.
16-0
.12
4.19
4.67
1.71
3.03
3.14
2.40
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E (M
IL$)
SAA
R…
……
……
……
…...
...21
7599
2160
4222
6587
2407
1825
3613
2560
1626
6873
2809
5528
9936
3034
6131
9690
3324
73Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…3.
64-0
.72
4.88
6.24
5.36
0.95
4.24
5.28
3.20
4.66
5.35
4.00
US
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
(BIL
$) S
AAR
……
……
……
……
......
1244
212
059
1255
213
327
1401
014
181
1499
215
724
1616
116
949
1785
218
552
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
3.62
-3.0
84.
086.
185.
131.
225.
724.
892.
784.
885.
333.
92TN
NO
NFA
RM
JO
BS (T
HO
US)
……
……
……
……
……
……
…27
74.9
2619
.426
14.9
2661
.527
15.0
2760
.028
21.6
2892
.929
65.4
3012
.430
63.3
3123
.0Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…-0
.81
-5.6
0-0
.17
1.78
2.01
1.66
2.23
2.53
2.50
1.59
1.69
1.95
US
NO
NFA
RM
JO
BS (M
IL)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
137.
213
1.3
130.
313
1.9
134.
213
6.4
138.
914
1.8
144.
314
6.6
148.
915
0.9
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-0.5
5-4
.33
-0.7
31.
221.
691.
641.
882.
071.
781.
571.
571.
37TN
MFG
JO
BS (T
HO
US)
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
358.
630
7.0
296.
930
2.4
311.
231
6.2
322.
833
0.8
341.
734
6.2
350.
535
5.1
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-5.0
2-1
4.41
-3.2
81.
852.
921.
602.
072.
493.
291.
341.
221.
31U
S M
FG J
OBS
(MIL
)……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
13.4
11.8
11.5
11.7
11.9
12.0
12.2
12.3
12.4
12.4
12.7
12.8
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-3.4
2-1
1.61
-2.6
91.
721.
700.
771.
381.
230.
140.
702.
001.
19TN
UN
EMPL
OYM
ENT
RAT
E (%
)……
……
……
……
……
…...
..6.
610
.59.
69.
07.
87.
76.
65.
64.
73.
83.
53.
4U
S U
NEM
PLO
YMEN
T R
ATE
(%)…
……
……
……
……
……
….
5.8
9.3
9.6
8.9
8.1
7.4
6.2
5.3
4.9
4.4
3.9
3.7
CH
AIN
ED P
RIC
E IN
DEX
, GD
P (2
012=
100.
0)…
……
……
......
.94
.395
.096
.198
.110
0.0
101.
810
3.6
104.
610
5.7
107.
811
0.3
112.
3Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…1.
910.
781.
172.
081.
921.
771.
840.
961.
051.
912.
391.
81U
S PE
RS
CO
NSU
MP
DEF
L (2
012=
100.
0)…
……
……
......
......
94.2
94.1
95.7
98.1
100.
010
1.3
102.
810
3.0
104.
110
6.0
108.
210
9.9
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
3.00
-0.0
91.
712.
531.
911.
351.
460.
211.
051.
792.
131.
49C
ON
SUM
ER P
RIC
E IN
DEX
, ALL
-UR
BAN
(82-
84=1
.000
)……
2.15
32.
146
2.18
12.
249
2.29
62.
330
2.36
72.
370
2.40
02.
451
2.51
12.
557
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
3.81
-0.3
21.
643.
142.
071.
471.
620.
121.
262.
142.
441.
81BA
NK
PRIM
E IN
TER
EST
RAT
E (%
)……
……
……
……
……
…5.
13.
33.
33.
33.
33.
33.
33.
33.
54.
14.
95.
3FE
DER
AL F
UN
DS
RAT
E (%
per
ann
um)…
……
……
……
……
1.92
80.
160
0.17
50.
102
0.14
00.
108
0.08
90.
133
0.39
51.
002
1.83
22.
158
30-Y
EAR
FIX
ED M
OR
TGAG
E R
ATE
(%)…
……
……
……
……
6.0
5.0
4.7
4.5
3.7
4.0
4.2
3.9
3.6
4.0
4.5
3.9
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
(MIL
2012
$)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
9900
291
636
9235
895
408
9802
099
878
1035
3011
0119
1147
3411
8169
1235
2812
8957
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-5.7
0-7
.44
0.79
3.30
2.74
1.90
3.66
6.36
4.19
2.99
4.54
4.39
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
(MIL
$)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
9323
586
220
8839
393
632
9801
710
1224
1064
6311
3479
1194
6212
5251
1337
1014
1670
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-2.8
8-7
.52
2.52
5.93
4.68
3.27
5.18
6.59
5.27
4.85
6.75
5.95
TN A
VG A
NN
UAL
WAG
E, N
ON
FAR
M (2
012$
)……
……
…...
..43
122
4338
044
008
4381
444
533
4401
644
443
4583
345
943
4642
346
958
4734
9Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…-0
.66
0.60
1.45
-0.4
41.
64-1
.16
0.97
3.13
0.24
1.04
1.15
0.83
TN A
VG A
NN
UAL
WAG
E, N
ON
FAR
M ($
)……
……
……
......
...40
611
4082
042
119
4299
444
533
4460
845
701
4722
847
837
4920
250
828
5201
2Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…2.
310.
513.
182.
083.
580.
172.
453.
341.
292.
853.
302.
33
Boyd
Cen
ter f
or B
usin
ess
and
Econ
omic
Res
earc
h, U
nive
rsity
of T
enne
ssee
Dece
mbe
r 202
0H
isto
rical
Dat
a
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 65
Tabl
e 2:
Sel
ecte
d Pe
r Cap
ita U
.S. a
nd T
enne
ssee
Eco
nom
ic In
dica
tors
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TN G
DP
(201
2$) S
AAR
……
……
……
……
……
4495
242
809
4193
642
925
4392
144
236
4460
646
012
4635
546
942
4778
748
148
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
-0.6
1-4
.77
-2.0
42.
362.
320.
720.
843.
150.
751.
271.
800.
76
US
GD
P (2
012$
) SAA
R…
……
……
……
.……
…51
172
4944
750
308
5072
451
501
5209
453
029
5427
154
815
5575
057
123
5807
8Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge.
......
......
......
......
......
..-1
.03
-3.3
71.
740.
831.
531.
151.
792.
341.
001.
712.
461.
67
US
GD
P ($
) SAA
R…
……
……
……
……
……
…48
247
4697
648
351
4977
051
501
5300
854
958
5678
157
952
6004
863
004
6520
1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge.
......
......
......
......
......
..0.
90-2
.63
2.93
2.93
3.48
2.93
3.68
3.32
2.06
3.62
4.92
3.49
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E (2
012$
) SAA
R…
….
3714
436
538
3725
238
343
3931
138
903
3967
841
368
4190
442
678
4362
544
321
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e....
......
......
......
......
.....
-0.6
2-1
.63
1.95
2.93
2.52
-1.0
41.
994.
261.
301.
852.
221.
60
US
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
(201
2$) S
AAR
……
4332
341
668
4229
643
487
4454
644
190
4571
347
507
4798
449
134
5041
251
373
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e....
......
......
......
......
.....
-0.2
9-3
.82
1.51
2.82
2.43
-0.8
03.
453.
931.
002.
402.
601.
91
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E ($
) SAA
R…
……
……
3498
234
379
3565
337
627
3931
239
427
4080
142
628
4363
245
233
4722
148
688
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e....
......
......
......
......
.....
2.35
-1.7
23.
715.
544.
480.
293.
494.
482.
353.
674.
403.
11
US
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
($) S
AAR
……
……
.40
801
3920
640
481
4267
444
548
4478
547
008
4895
449
962
5207
754
568
5643
4Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge.
......
......
......
......
......
..2.
69-3
.91
3.25
5.42
4.39
0.53
4.96
4.14
2.06
4.23
4.78
3.42
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
(201
2$)…
……
……
……
1591
714
583
1453
214
914
1519
415
381
1582
816
708
1726
617
614
1824
618
885
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e....
......
......
......
......
.....
-6.8
7-8
.38
-0.3
42.
621.
881.
232.
915.
563.
342.
013.
593.
50
TN T
AXAB
LE S
ALES
($)…
……
……
……
……
1499
013
721
1390
914
636
1519
315
589
1627
717
218
1797
818
670
1975
020
746
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e....
......
......
......
......
.....
-4.0
8-8
.47
1.37
5.23
3.81
2.60
4.41
5.78
4.41
3.85
5.79
5.04
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
66 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 3:
Ten
ness
ee P
erso
nal I
ncom
e C
ompo
nent
s (m
illio
ns o
f 201
2 do
llars
)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E……
……
...…
……
2310
5022
9605
2367
4824
5296
2536
0425
2614
2595
2527
2650
2784
5428
6318
2953
4330
2654
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
0.62
-0.6
33.
113.
613.
39-0
.39
2.74
5.06
2.13
2.82
3.15
2.48
WAG
ES A
ND
SAL
ARIE
S……
……
……
1207
1111
4735
1161
4311
7548
1218
2912
2384
1262
8513
3430
1371
0914
0705
1447
2414
8719
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
-1.4
3-4
.95
1.23
1.21
3.64
0.46
3.19
5.66
2.76
2.62
2.86
2.76
OTH
ER L
ABO
R IN
CO
ME…
……
……
…27
921
2687
026
332
2684
728
776
2912
028
636
2936
429
779
3073
131
873
3251
2Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
…0.
69-3
.76
-2.0
01.
967.
191.
20-1
.66
2.54
1.41
3.20
3.72
2.01
PRO
PRIE
TOR
S IN
CO
ME…
……
……
…23
456
2750
529
476
3250
633
252
3462
936
529
3814
838
800
3955
740
549
4178
7Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
…-7
.70
17.2
67.
1610
.28
2.30
4.14
5.49
4.43
1.71
1.95
2.51
3.05
REN
T, IN
TER
EST,
DIV
IDEN
DS…
……
…34
118
3136
331
698
3379
736
130
3457
836
708
3881
740
146
4298
245
019
4490
7Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
…2.
77-8
.08
1.07
6.62
6.90
-4.2
96.
165.
753.
427.
064.
74-0
.25
TRAN
SFER
PAY
MEN
TS…
……
……
……
4540
948
907
5267
152
369
5188
852
717
5256
355
170
5576
756
407
5792
960
313
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
9.16
7.70
7.70
-0.5
7-0
.92
1.60
-0.2
94.
961.
081.
152.
704.
12
LESS
: PE
RS
CO
NT
FOR
SO
C IN
S……
1909
818
746
1879
116
996
1719
919
590
2003
321
002
2156
222
365
2288
523
628
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
-0.3
7-1
.84
0.24
-9.5
51.
2013
.90
2.26
4.84
2.67
3.72
2.32
3.25
RES
IDEN
CE
ADJU
STM
ENT…
……
……
-146
9-1
029
-780
-774
-107
3-1
225
-116
4-1
278
-158
5-1
698
-186
6-1
958
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
-9.3
6-2
9.93
-24.
18-0
.83
38.6
114
.19
-4.9
49.
8023
.96
7.17
9.84
4.94
PER
CAP
ITA
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
($)…
…37
144
3653
837
252
3834
339
311
3890
339
678
4136
841
904
4267
843
625
4432
1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
…-0
.62
-1.6
31.
952.
932.
52-1
.04
1.99
4.26
1.30
1.85
2.22
1.60
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2012 dollars)
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 67
Tabl
e 4:
Ten
ness
ee P
erso
nal I
ncom
e C
ompo
nent
s (m
illio
ns o
f cur
rent
dol
lars
)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TN P
ERSO
NAL
INC
OM
E……
……
...…
……
2175
9921
6042
2265
8724
0718
2536
1325
6016
2668
7328
0955
2899
3630
3461
3196
9033
2473
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
3.64
-0.7
24.
886.
245.
360.
954.
245.
283.
204.
665.
354.
00
WAG
ES A
ND
SAL
ARIE
S……
……
……
1136
7910
7955
1111
5711
5351
1218
3312
4032
1298
6013
7496
1427
6514
9131
1566
5416
3370
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
1.51
-5.0
42.
973.
775.
621.
804.
705.
883.
834.
465.
044.
29
OTH
ER L
ABO
R IN
CO
ME…
……
……
…26
295
2528
125
201
2634
728
778
2951
229
446
3025
931
007
3257
134
501
3571
5Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
…3.
70-3
.86
-0.3
24.
559.
232.
55-0
.22
2.76
2.47
5.04
5.92
3.52
PRO
PRIE
TOR
S IN
CO
ME…
……
……
…22
089
2588
728
210
3190
333
253
3509
537
564
3930
940
399
4192
343
892
4590
6Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
…-4
.92
17.2
08.
9713
.09
4.23
5.54
7.03
4.65
2.77
3.77
4.70
4.59
REN
T, IN
TER
EST,
DIV
IDEN
DS…
……
…32
133
2950
630
338
3316
836
133
3504
537
749
4000
041
803
4555
848
730
4933
1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
…5.
84-8
.17
2.82
9.33
8.94
-3.0
17.
725.
964.
518.
986.
961.
23
TRAN
SFER
PAY
MEN
TS…
……
……
……
4277
246
020
5041
151
386
5188
953
428
5405
256
850
5806
459
782
6270
366
256
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
12.4
47.
599.
541.
940.
982.
971.
175.
182.
142.
964.
895.
67
LESS
: PE
RS
CO
NT
FOR
SO
C IN
S……
1798
617
639
1798
316
678
1719
919
853
2060
021
642
2245
223
704
2477
125
956
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
2.61
-1.9
31.
95-7
.26
3.13
15.4
33.
765.
063.
755.
584.
504.
78
RES
IDEN
CE
ADJU
STM
ENT…
……
……
-138
3-9
68-7
47-7
60-1
073
-124
1-1
197
-131
7-1
650
-180
0-2
019
-215
1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
…-6
.67
-30.
01-2
2.86
1.70
41.2
515
.70
-3.5
510
.04
25.2
79.
0812
.18
6.49
PER
CAP
ITA
PER
SON
AL IN
CO
ME
($)…
…34
982
3437
935
653
3762
739
312
3942
740
801
4262
843
632
4523
347
221
4868
8Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
…2.
35-1
.72
3.71
5.54
4.48
0.29
3.49
4.48
2.35
3.67
4.40
3.11
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars)
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
68 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 5:
Ten
ness
ee N
onfa
rm E
mpl
oym
ent b
y Se
ctor
(tho
usan
ds o
f job
s)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…27
74.9
2619
.426
14.9
2661
.527
15.0
2760
.028
21.6
2892
.929
65.4
3012
.430
63.3
3123
.0Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-0.8
1-5
.60
-0.1
71.
782.
011.
662.
232.
532.
501.
591.
691.
95
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
, MIN
ING
AN
D C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N…
……
……
……
……
…13
2.5
110.
010
5.1
108.
710
9.0
108.
011
1.0
117.
111
9.3
124.
512
9.0
134.
2Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-3.8
8-1
6.98
-4.4
63.
410.
29-0
.92
2.78
5.54
1.83
4.39
3.58
4.03
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G…
……
……
……
……
……
…35
8.6
307.
029
6.9
302.
431
1.2
316.
232
2.8
330.
834
1.7
346.
235
0.5
355.
1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-5.0
2-1
4.41
-3.2
81.
852.
921.
602.
072.
493.
291.
341.
221.
31
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
221.
118
2.1
176.
618
4.0
194.
219
9.2
205.
521
1.2
219.
522
2.0
224.
122
7.4
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-6
.84
-17.
66-3
.00
4.18
5.54
2.56
3.16
2.77
3.96
1.13
0.94
1.48
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…13
7.5
124.
912
0.3
118.
411
7.0
117.
011
7.3
119.
612
2.1
124.
212
6.4
127.
7Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-1.9
4-9
.18
-3.6
9-1
.56
-1.1
50.
000.
212.
012.
091.
701.
731.
02
TRAD
E, T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, U
TILI
TIES
……
598.
655
7.8
553.
256
1.6
573.
157
9.1
587.
759
9.9
615.
461
9.6
626.
463
9.3
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-1
.77
-6.8
0-0
.84
1.52
2.05
1.05
1.49
2.08
2.57
0.68
1.11
2.06
WH
OLE
SALE
TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
…12
9.6
118.
811
4.5
115.
611
8.3
118.
511
8.0
117.
411
6.8
118.
111
9.3
120.
9Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-1.3
3-8
.33
-3.6
10.
982.
360.
13-0
.45
-0.4
7-0
.53
1.13
0.99
1.40
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
325.
630
7.1
307.
030
9.3
312.
931
5.1
320.
932
5.6
334.
133
5.9
335.
733
5.6
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-1
.56
-5.6
6-0
.06
0.77
1.17
0.70
1.84
1.47
2.59
0.54
-0.0
6-0
.03
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N &
UTI
LITI
ES…
……
…14
3.4
131.
913
1.7
136.
714
1.8
145.
514
8.8
156.
916
4.5
165.
617
1.5
182.
8Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-2.6
1-8
.02
-0.1
53.
733.
772.
582.
315.
404.
850.
653.
566.
59
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…51
.047
.345
.344
.043
.444
.344
.044
.645
.546
.045
.145
.5Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
1.19
-7.1
1-4
.31
-2.8
9-1
.27
2.05
-0.6
61.
341.
981.
08-1
.96
0.91
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
…14
7.8
143.
313
9.8
139.
213
9.7
141.
514
6.8
150.
815
6.0
162.
616
8.4
172.
3Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
0.19
-3.0
8-2
.43
-0.4
70.
411.
263.
762.
743.
444.
233.
532.
35
PRO
FESS
ION
AL &
BU
SIN
ESS
SER
VIC
ES…
322.
229
4.7
305.
432
4.2
340.
135
5.7
377.
039
4.4
405.
140
8.6
416.
142
6.8
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-0
.50
-8.5
43.
636.
184.
894.
586.
004.
622.
710.
861.
812.
58
EDU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
361.
136
7.8
375.
638
6.2
395.
640
1.1
405.
741
4.4
424.
043
1.0
435.
944
1.9
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…2.
521.
862.
122.
812.
451.
381.
162.
152.
311.
651.
141.
38
LEIS
UR
E &
HO
SPIT
ALIT
Y……
……
……
……
…27
3.7
263.
526
2.0
267.
627
6.7
285.
829
6.4
307.
931
9.5
328.
933
7.6
349.
0Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-0.8
8-3
.73
-0.5
82.
153.
403.
293.
683.
903.
772.
942.
643.
36
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
……
104.
510
2.0
101.
210
2.1
104.
310
5.6
106.
110
7.9
111.
011
4.6
118.
412
1.2
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…0.
42-2
.36
-0.8
20.
862.
171.
250.
481.
762.
803.
263.
342.
36
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…42
5.0
426.
043
0.6
425.
642
1.9
422.
842
4.1
424.
942
7.9
430.
343
6.0
437.
8Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
1.52
0.24
1.07
-1.1
5-0
.88
0.21
0.32
0.18
0.71
0.56
1.32
0.41
FED
ERAL
, CIV
ILIA
N…
……
……
……
……
…49
.450
.152
.450
.550
.149
.548
.449
.149
.349
.149
.150
.1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
1.25
1.47
4.49
-3.4
5-0
.79
-1.3
5-2
.16
1.45
0.34
-0.3
70.
081.
95
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
…37
5.6
375.
937
8.2
375.
137
1.7
373.
337
5.7
375.
837
8.6
381.
238
6.9
387.
7Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
1.55
0.08
0.61
-0.8
3-0
.89
0.42
0.65
0.02
0.75
0.68
1.48
0.21
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 69
Tabl
e 6:
Ten
ness
ee D
urab
le G
oods
Man
ufac
turin
g Em
ploy
men
t (th
ousa
nds
of jo
bs)
Dec
embe
r 202
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
221.
118
2.1
176.
618
4.0
194.
219
9.2
205.
521
1.2
219.
522
2.0
224.
122
7.4
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
-6.8
4-1
7.66
-3.0
04.
185.
542.
563.
162.
773.
961.
130.
941.
48
WO
OD
PR
OD
UC
TS…
……
……
……
……
…14
.311
.310
.910
.811
.010
.911
.211
.612
.112
.512
.512
.5Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
…-1
1.24
-20.
84-3
.55
-1.0
72.
25-1
.59
3.36
3.18
4.80
3.29
-0.1
40.
20
NO
NM
ETAL
LIC
MIN
ERAL
S……
……
……
14.2
11.6
11.3
11.8
12.5
12.1
12.0
12.7
13.3
13.6
14.2
14.3
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
-8.3
8-1
8.89
-2.0
54.
215.
80-2
.66
-1.1
15.
405.
202.
314.
280.
52
PRIM
ARY
MET
ALS…
……
….…
……
……
…11
.29.
28.
99.
39.
810
.110
.210
.510
.710
.711
.011
.3Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
…-4
.93
-18.
60-2
.64
4.69
4.92
3.16
0.99
2.70
1.74
0.78
2.79
2.72
FABR
ICAT
ED M
ETAL
S……
……
……
…...
39.9
33.8
33.1
33.7
34.6
34.0
34.6
35.3
35.7
35.5
36.6
38.0
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
-4.2
8-1
5.46
-1.8
71.
832.
63-1
.64
1.54
2.05
1.28
-0.5
03.
003.
78
MAC
HIN
ERY…
……
……
……
……
……
……
31.2
26.0
24.8
25.1
25.5
25.4
25.4
25.3
25.5
25.3
25.8
26.6
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
-2.5
0-1
6.63
-4.7
91.
461.
65-0
.71
0.31
-0.6
20.
78-0
.77
2.19
2.88
CO
MPU
TER
S &
ELEC
TRO
NIC
S……
……
7.4
6.2
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.8
4.9
5.2
5.6
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
-8.2
6-1
6.07
-10.
580.
440.
73-7
.38
-3.0
2-2
.14
-3.1
91.
916.
987.
97
ELEC
TRIC
AL E
QU
IPM
ENT,
APP
LIAN
CES
& C
OM
PON
ENTS
……
……
..……
……
……
20.6
17.8
16.9
17.7
17.9
18.6
19.4
19.8
19.9
19.3
18.7
17.6
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
-6.9
4-1
3.43
-4.8
54.
451.
463.
754.
122.
010.
50-3
.07
-3.1
5-5
.85
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N E
QU
IPM
ENT…
……
52.5
40.4
40.5
45.8
53.6
59.5
63.8
66.8
72.5
74.5
74.0
75.1
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
-10.
46-2
2.96
0.03
13.2
117
.04
11.0
37.
134.
698.
642.
68-0
.59
1.48
FUR
NIT
UR
E……
……
……
……
……
……
…14
.210
.89.
78.
98.
78.
89.
09.
19.
49.
59.
69.
7Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
…-1
1.08
-24.
26-1
0.21
-7.7
3-2
.92
1.06
2.72
0.56
3.93
0.89
1.14
0.97
MIS
CEL
LAN
EOU
S D
UR
ABLE
S……
……
…15
.515
.015
.015
.214
.914
.514
.815
.315
.616
.216
.416
.6Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
…0.
98-2
.99
-0.6
21.
78-2
.19
-2.2
51.
773.
601.
733.
621.
241.
63
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
His
toric
al D
ata
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
70 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 7:
Ten
ness
ee N
ondu
rabl
e G
oods
Man
ufac
turin
g Em
ploy
men
t (th
ousa
nds
of jo
bs)
Dec
embe
r 202
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
…13
7.5
124.
912
0.3
118.
411
7.0
117.
011
7.3
119.
612
2.1
124.
212
6.4
127.
7Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-1
.94
-9.1
8-3
.69
-1.5
6-1
.15
0.00
0.21
2.01
2.09
1.70
1.73
1.02
FOO
D…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…32
.632
.432
.733
.233
.132
.532
.833
.434
.435
.435
.735
.9Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-0
.62
-0.5
60.
831.
54-0
.21
-1.8
50.
951.
753.
003.
050.
760.
53
BEVE
RAG
E &
TOBA
CC
O…
……
……
……
……
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.9
6.6
6.9
7.2
7.4
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
0.14
0.16
-1.6
40.
163.
512.
583.
457.
7010
.85
5.58
4.24
2.53
PAPE
R…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
14.5
13.6
13.3
12.9
12.2
12.1
12.0
12.0
11.9
11.9
12.1
12.6
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-1.2
6-6
.47
-2.3
3-2
.98
-4.9
3-1
.09
-0.9
10.
21-0
.63
-0.3
51.
614.
13
PRIN
TIN
G &
REL
ATED
SU
PPO
RT…
……
……
15.7
13.3
11.4
10.0
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.2
9.2
9.0
9.0
8.9
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-7.5
3-1
5.27
-13.
96-1
2.93
-3.4
40.
09-1
.22
-3.0
0-0
.29
-2.2
7-0
.19
-0.7
3
CH
EMIC
ALS…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
27.6
25.9
25.0
24.6
24.4
24.8
25.3
25.6
25.3
25.0
25.6
25.9
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
2.19
-6.1
8-3
.31
-1.6
3-0
.78
1.64
1.91
1.12
-1.1
7-1
.09
2.10
1.53
PLAS
TIC
S &
RU
BBER
……
……
……
……
……
25.4
20.4
19.9
20.4
20.0
20.2
20.8
21.9
23.2
24.3
24.8
24.8
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-4.4
0-1
9.87
-2.3
72.
68-2
.29
0.99
3.06
5.49
5.62
5.11
2.05
-0.0
3
MIS
CEL
LAN
EOU
S N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
16.6
14.3
13.0
12.3
12.5
12.5
11.4
11.6
11.6
11.6
12.0
12.1
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-2.8
7-1
4.18
-9.0
0-4
.97
1.42
0.08
-8.8
41.
690.
280.
073.
350.
83
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
His
toric
al D
ata
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 71
Tabl
e 8:
Ten
ness
ee A
vera
ge A
nnua
l Wag
e an
d Sa
lary
Rat
e by
Sec
tor (
2012
dol
lars
)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…43
122
4338
044
008
4381
444
533
4401
644
443
4583
345
943
4642
346
958
4734
9Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-0.6
60.
601.
45-0
.44
1.64
-1.1
60.
973.
130.
241.
041.
150.
83N
ATU
RAL
RES
OU
RC
ES, M
ININ
G A
ND
CO
NST
RU
CTI
ON
……
……
……
……
……
4800
347
214
4809
647
992
4860
148
297
4977
752
590
5335
154
508
5390
354
943
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-0
.33
-1.6
41.
87-0
.22
1.27
-0.6
23.
065.
651.
452.
17-1
.11
1.93
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G…
……
……
……
……
……
…51
504
5237
554
754
5420
655
207
5439
555
136
5590
456
111
5650
555
106
5493
5Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
0.41
1.69
4.54
-1.0
01.
85-1
.47
1.36
1.39
0.37
0.70
-2.4
8-0
.31
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
5027
651
198
5336
052
620
5431
452
438
5352
854
376
5487
955
317
5547
955
336
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…0.
701.
834.
22-1
.39
3.22
-3.4
52.
081.
580.
930.
800.
29-0
.26
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…53
483
5407
856
811
5666
656
693
5772
457
949
5860
158
325
5863
154
444
5422
5Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-0.2
21.
115.
05-0
.26
0.05
1.82
0.39
1.13
-0.4
70.
52-7
.14
-0.4
0TR
ADE,
TR
ANSP
OR
TATI
ON
, UTI
LITI
ES…
…40
515
4025
540
715
4092
741
232
4074
541
342
4253
942
753
4302
143
296
4332
0Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-2.2
2-0
.64
1.14
0.52
0.74
-1.1
81.
472.
890.
500.
630.
640.
06W
HO
LESA
LE T
RAD
E……
……
……
……
……
6089
160
422
6162
762
033
6352
462
980
6551
667
613
6941
568
942
6741
767
979
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-0
.96
-0.7
71.
990.
662.
40-0
.86
4.03
3.20
2.67
-0.6
8-2
.21
0.83
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
2794
428
023
2845
328
512
2832
527
686
2800
828
854
2896
129
211
2965
829
318
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-3
.30
0.28
1.54
0.21
-0.6
5-2
.26
1.16
3.02
0.37
0.86
1.53
-1.1
5TR
ANSP
OR
TATI
ON
& U
TILI
TIES
……
……
5064
350
580
5111
551
183
5111
250
926
5094
452
178
5183
852
550
5322
252
714
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-2
.08
-0.1
21.
060.
13-0
.14
-0.3
60.
042.
42-0
.65
1.37
1.28
-0.9
6IN
FOR
MAT
ION
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
5385
854
218
5527
557
166
5816
257
054
5912
459
482
6108
263
855
6786
068
172
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-2
.93
0.67
1.95
3.42
1.74
-1.9
03.
630.
612.
694.
546.
270.
46FI
NAN
CIA
L AC
TIVI
TIES
……
……
……
……
……
5980
759
797
6282
462
704
6592
563
817
6462
665
649
6602
665
299
6767
468
776
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-2
.67
-0.0
25.
06-0
.19
5.14
-3.2
01.
271.
580.
57-1
.10
3.64
1.63
PRO
FESS
ION
AL &
BU
SIN
ESS
SER
VIC
ES…
4726
948
996
4957
048
671
5132
850
980
4986
952
657
5252
853
122
5578
157
541
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…2.
213.
651.
17-1
.81
5.46
-0.6
8-2
.18
5.59
-0.2
41.
135.
013.
15ED
UC
ATIO
N &
HEA
LTH
SER
VIC
ES…
……
…45
022
4613
646
015
4527
745
234
4493
545
139
4699
346
741
4723
447
276
4752
8Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-0.2
02.
47-0
.26
-1.6
0-0
.10
-0.6
60.
454.
11-0
.54
1.06
0.09
0.53
LEIS
UR
E &
HO
SPIT
ALIT
Y……
……
……
……
…20
936
2089
121
300
2117
121
436
2102
921
680
2298
123
121
2380
724
524
2432
8Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-2.4
3-0
.22
1.96
-0.6
01.
25-1
.90
3.10
6.00
0.61
2.97
3.01
-0.8
0O
THER
SER
VIC
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
…38
793
3927
239
170
3928
139
678
3937
440
886
4193
641
682
4165
041
691
4201
3Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-0.1
51.
23-0
.26
0.28
1.01
-0.7
73.
842.
57-0
.61
-0.0
80.
100.
77G
OVE
RN
MEN
T……
……
……
……
……
……
……
4171
741
944
4181
041
923
4181
741
623
4200
142
396
4253
943
255
4351
243
865
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-0
.15
0.54
-0.3
20.
27-0
.25
-0.4
60.
910.
940.
341.
680.
600.
81FE
DER
AL, C
IVIL
IAN
……
……
……
……
……
6817
569
160
7085
273
073
7205
270
861
7644
375
480
7477
774
887
7598
274
618
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-2
.55
1.44
2.45
3.13
-1.4
0-1
.65
7.88
-1.2
6-0
.93
0.15
1.46
-1.8
0ST
ATE
& LO
CAL
……
……
……
……
……
……
3823
938
317
3780
837
726
3773
837
749
3756
438
073
3834
539
182
3938
939
893
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…0.
460.
20-1
.33
-0.2
20.
030.
03-0
.49
1.35
0.71
2.18
0.53
1.28
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Dec
embe
r 202
0H
isto
rical
Dat
a
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2012 dollars)
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
72 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 9:
Ten
ness
ee A
vera
ge A
nnua
l Wag
e an
d Sa
lary
Rat
e by
Sec
tor (
curr
ent d
olla
rs)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L N
ON
FAR
M…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…40
611
4082
042
119
4299
444
533
4460
845
701
4722
847
837
4920
250
828
5201
2Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
2.31
0.51
3.18
2.08
3.58
0.17
2.45
3.34
1.29
2.85
3.30
2.33
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
, MIN
ING
AN
D C
ON
STR
UC
TIO
N…
……
……
……
……
…45
207
4442
146
027
4709
048
600
4894
851
186
5419
355
554
5777
558
344
6035
3Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
2.65
-1.7
43.
622.
313.
210.
724.
575.
872.
514.
000.
993.
44
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G…
……
……
……
……
……
…48
505
4929
352
404
5318
955
206
5512
656
695
5760
758
424
5988
859
646
6034
7Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
3.42
1.63
6.31
1.50
3.79
-0.1
42.
851.
611.
422.
51-0
.40
1.17
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
……
……
4735
248
185
5106
751
633
5431
253
144
5504
456
033
5714
158
629
6005
060
787
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…3.
731.
765.
981.
115.
19-2
.15
3.58
1.80
1.98
2.60
2.42
1.23
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…50
363
5089
854
375
5560
156
694
5850
159
585
6038
460
730
6214
058
929
5956
5Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
2.75
1.06
6.83
2.25
1.97
3.19
1.85
1.34
0.57
2.32
-5.1
71.
08
TRAD
E, T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, U
TILI
TIES
……
3815
537
878
3896
740
162
4123
241
293
4251
243
835
4451
645
597
4686
447
585
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…0.
71-0
.73
2.87
3.07
2.67
0.15
2.95
3.11
1.56
2.43
2.78
1.54
WH
OLE
SALE
TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
…57
345
5685
358
981
6087
163
530
6382
767
371
6967
272
281
7306
872
968
7467
2Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
2.01
-0.8
63.
743.
204.
370.
475.
553.
423.
741.
09-0
.14
2.33
RET
AIL
TRAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
2631
626
369
2723
127
980
2832
428
058
2880
029
734
3015
530
959
3210
332
203
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…-0
.40
0.20
3.27
2.75
1.23
-0.9
42.
653.
241.
422.
673.
690.
31
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N &
UTI
LITI
ES…
……
…47
690
4759
548
920
5022
251
112
5161
252
386
5376
653
975
5569
557
607
5790
4Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
0.85
-0.2
02.
782.
661.
770.
981.
502.
640.
393.
193.
430.
51
INFO
RM
ATIO
N…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…50
720
5102
152
900
5610
258
167
5782
260
796
6129
063
604
6767
673
446
7489
3Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
-0.0
10.
593.
686.
053.
68-0
.59
5.14
0.81
3.77
6.40
8.53
1.97
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
…56
325
5626
860
134
6153
065
928
6467
266
452
6764
868
745
6921
073
257
7555
0Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
0.25
-0.1
06.
872.
327.
15-1
.91
2.75
1.80
1.62
0.68
5.85
3.13
PRO
FESS
ION
AL &
BU
SIN
ESS
SER
VIC
ES…
4451
346
104
4744
147
757
5133
251
665
5128
054
259
5469
256
302
6037
863
210
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…5.
253.
572.
900.
677.
490.
65-0
.74
5.81
0.80
2.94
7.24
4.69
EDU
CAT
ION
& H
EALT
H S
ERVI
CES
……
……
4240
143
412
4403
944
430
4523
445
539
4641
648
424
4866
750
060
5117
252
210
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…2.
792.
381.
440.
891.
810.
671.
924.
330.
502.
862.
222.
03
LEIS
UR
E &
HO
SPIT
ALIT
Y……
……
……
……
…19
717
1965
720
385
2077
521
436
2131
222
294
2368
124
074
2523
226
546
2672
4Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
0.48
-0.3
13.
711.
913.
18-0
.58
4.61
6.22
1.66
4.81
5.21
0.67
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
……
3653
336
955
3748
738
543
3967
839
905
4204
343
213
4339
744
142
4512
746
153
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
…2.
841.
161.
442.
822.
940.
575.
362.
780.
431.
722.
232.
27
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…39
287
3946
440
014
4113
941
817
4218
343
189
4368
644
293
4584
447
098
4818
7Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
2.84
0.45
1.39
2.81
1.65
0.87
2.39
1.15
1.39
3.50
2.73
2.31
FED
ERAL
, CIV
ILIA
N…
……
……
……
……
…64
202
6507
867
815
7170
272
050
7181
778
606
7777
777
856
7937
082
243
8196
7Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
0.37
1.36
4.21
5.73
0.49
-0.3
29.
45-1
.05
0.10
1.95
3.62
-0.3
4
STAT
E &
LOC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
…36
012
3605
136
183
3702
037
739
3825
638
627
3923
239
926
4152
842
635
4382
4Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
3.47
0.11
0.37
2.31
1.94
1.37
0.97
1.57
1.77
4.01
2.67
2.79
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
eeTe
nnes
see
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars)
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 73
Tabl
e 10
: Te
nnes
see
Civ
ilian
Lab
or F
orce
and
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
CIV
ILIA
N L
ABO
R F
OR
CE
(TH
OU
S)…
……
…30
5630
5430
9031
2531
0230
6830
2530
5731
2331
8532
5433
43Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
-0.2
7-0
.07
1.18
1.12
-0.7
3-1
.10
-1.4
01.
072.
161.
982.
172.
74
EMPL
OYE
D P
ERSO
NS
(TH
OU
S)…
……
…28
5327
3527
9228
4428
5928
3028
2528
8629
7630
6531
4032
30Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
-2.3
3-4
.15
2.09
1.87
0.51
-1.0
0-0
.17
2.14
3.12
3.01
2.43
2.88
UN
EMPL
OYE
D P
ERSO
NS
(TH
OU
S)…
…20
331
929
828
024
323
820
017
214
812
011
511
3Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
41.8
457
.41
-6.6
3-5
.95
-13.
32-2
.21
-15.
99-1
4.05
-13.
89-1
8.80
-4.5
2-1
.08
PAR
TIC
IPAT
ION
RAT
E (P
ERC
ENT)
……
……
63.4
62.7
61.4
61.5
60.5
59.4
58.0
58.1
58.8
59.2
59.9
61.0
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
…-1
.54
-1.0
3-2
.13
0.25
-1.7
2-1
.86
-2.2
70.
141.
130.
821.
071.
85
UN
EMPL
OYM
ENT
RAT
E (P
ERC
ENT)
……
…6.
610
.59.
69.
07.
87.
76.
65.
64.
73.
83.
53.
4
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
74 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 11
: Te
nnes
see
Taxa
ble
Sale
s (m
illio
ns o
f 201
2 do
llars
)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L TA
XABL
E SA
LES…
……
……
……
……
……
9900
291
636
9235
895
408
9802
099
878
1035
3011
0119
1147
3411
8169
1235
2812
8957
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-5.7
0-7
.44
0.79
3.30
2.74
1.90
3.66
6.36
4.19
2.99
4.54
4.39
AUTO
DEA
LER
S……
……
……
……
……
……
…84
3171
4580
1485
8992
7596
9610
267
1144
012
109
1214
112
321
1267
1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-1
8.89
-15.
2512
.16
7.17
7.99
4.54
5.89
11.4
35.
850.
261.
482.
84
PUR
CH
ASES
FR
OM
MAN
UFA
CTU
RER
S….
4775
3713
3819
4085
4041
4115
4337
4732
4999
5168
5486
5869
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-7.9
4-2
2.24
2.87
6.96
-1.0
71.
815.
409.
105.
643.
406.
147.
00
MIS
C D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…17
359
1461
015
144
1587
816
374
1658
117
058
1806
219
331
2014
420
914
2186
1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-9
.00
-15.
843.
654.
853.
121.
272.
885.
887.
034.
213.
824.
53
EATI
NG
AN
D D
RIN
KIN
G P
LAC
ES…
……
……
9529
9395
9463
9687
1019
710
435
1088
811
676
1211
312
187
1264
313
744
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-1.8
8-1
.40
0.72
2.37
5.27
2.33
4.34
7.24
3.74
0.61
3.74
8.72
FOO
D S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
9129
9376
9283
9391
9690
1011
310
401
1077
411
057
1143
411
818
1202
3Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-4
.39
2.70
-0.9
91.
163.
184.
372.
853.
592.
633.
413.
361.
74
LIQ
UO
R S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
…67
569
871
574
279
382
586
994
293
685
789
996
1Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…3.
943.
402.
423.
676.
914.
075.
328.
43-0
.64
-8.4
74.
916.
92
HO
TELS
AN
D M
OTE
LS…
……
……
……
……
…24
5721
6721
6023
7724
8825
0528
0231
2734
5834
0235
4242
90Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-4
.61
-11.
81-0
.31
10.0
44.
690.
6911
.83
11.6
210
.57
-1.6
04.
1021
.11
OTH
ER R
ETAI
L AN
D S
ERVI
CE…
……
……
…29
983
2848
828
540
2930
130
179
3072
031
979
3388
235
086
3588
538
138
3969
0Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-3
.15
-4.9
90.
182.
672.
991.
794.
105.
953.
552.
286.
284.
07
MIS
C N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
8266
7827
7988
8139
8423
8577
8797
9186
9510
9317
9621
9828
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-2.5
8-5
.31
2.07
1.88
3.49
1.83
2.56
4.41
3.53
-2.0
33.
272.
15
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, C
OM
MU
NIC
ATIO
N…
…83
9982
1772
3172
2065
6063
1161
3362
9961
3676
3481
4880
20Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-0
.12
-2.1
7-1
1.99
-0.1
5-9
.14
-3.8
0-2
.83
2.72
-2.5
924
.42
6.73
-1.5
8
PER
CAP
ITA
($)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
1591
714
583
1453
214
914
1519
415
381
1582
816
708
1726
617
614
1824
618
885
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-6.8
7-8
.38
-0.3
42.
621.
881.
232.
915.
563.
342.
013.
593.
50
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2012 dollars)
Historical Data | APPENDIX B
2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT | 75
Tabl
e 12
: Te
nnes
see
Taxa
ble
Sale
s (m
illio
ns o
f cur
rent
dol
lars
)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TOTA
L TA
XABL
E SA
LES…
……
……
……
……
……
9323
586
220
8839
393
632
9801
710
1224
1064
6311
3479
1194
6212
5251
1337
1014
1670
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-2.8
8-7
.52
2.52
5.93
4.68
3.27
5.18
6.59
5.27
4.85
6.75
5.95
AUTO
DEA
LER
S……
……
……
……
……
……
…79
3867
2576
7184
2992
7598
2710
558
1178
912
609
1286
813
336
1392
0Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-1
6.47
-15.
2814
.07
9.89
10.0
35.
957.
4411
.66
6.96
2.05
3.64
4.38
PUR
CH
ASES
FR
OM
MAN
UFA
CTU
RER
S….
4496
3493
3656
4009
4042
4170
4460
4876
5205
5478
5938
6448
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-5.1
7-2
2.31
4.65
9.67
0.82
3.18
6.95
9.33
6.75
5.24
8.40
8.59
MIS
C D
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
…16
347
1374
714
494
1558
316
372
1680
417
542
1861
420
127
2135
122
638
2401
7Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-6
.27
-15.
915.
437.
515.
062.
644.
396.
118.
136.
086.
036.
09
EATI
NG
AN
D D
RIN
KIN
G P
LAC
ES…
……
……
8973
8840
9057
9507
1019
710
576
1119
612
032
1261
212
916
1368
515
099
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
1.06
-1.4
82.
454.
977.
263.
715.
877.
474.
822.
415.
9610
.33
FOO
D S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
8600
8821
8884
9216
9690
1024
910
696
1110
211
513
1212
012
791
1320
8Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-1
.49
2.57
0.72
3.73
5.14
5.77
4.35
3.80
3.70
5.27
5.54
3.26
LIQ
UO
R S
TOR
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
…63
665
768
572
879
383
689
497
197
590
897
310
56Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…7.
053.
314.
176.
318.
935.
476.
868.
660.
37-6
.80
7.15
8.50
HO
TELS
AN
D M
OTE
LS…
……
……
……
……
…23
1320
3920
6723
3324
8825
3928
8132
2336
0036
0638
3447
12Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-1
.78
-11.
871.
4012
.85
6.66
2.04
13.4
711
.86
11.7
10.
166.
3422
.88
OTH
ER R
ETAI
L AN
D S
ERVI
CE…
……
……
…28
237
2680
527
315
2875
630
178
3113
432
884
3491
636
531
3803
641
281
4360
4Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…-0
.24
-5.0
71.
905.
274.
953.
175.
626.
184.
624.
128.
535.
63
MIS
C N
ON
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS…
……
……
……
7784
7364
7645
7987
8423
8693
9046
9466
9902
9874
1041
410
796
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
0.33
-5.3
93.
814.
475.
453.
214.
074.
644.
60-0
.27
5.46
3.67
TRAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N, C
OM
MU
NIC
ATIO
N…
…79
1077
2969
2170
8565
6063
9663
0664
9163
8880
9488
1988
10Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
..……
……
……
…2.
87-2
.29
-10.
452.
37-7
.41
-2.5
0-1
.40
2.93
-1.5
826
.70
8.96
-0.1
0
PER
CAP
ITA
($)…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
1499
013
721
1390
914
636
1519
315
589
1627
717
218
1797
818
670
1975
020
746
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
…..…
……
……
……
-4.0
8-8
.47
1.37
5.23
3.81
2.60
4.41
5.78
4.41
3.85
5.79
5.04
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0
His
toric
al D
ata
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars)
APPENDIX B | Historical Data
76 | 2021 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Tabl
e 13
: Ten
ness
ee G
ross
Dom
estic
Pro
duct
by
Sect
or (m
illio
ns o
f 201
2 do
llars
)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
GR
OSS
DO
MES
TIC
PR
OD
UC
T....
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
..27
2,05
526
2,98
326
6,57
427
4,61
928
3,48
228
7,30
329
1,92
830
3,45
130
8,31
931
5,00
632
3,52
032
8,78
8
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
0.91
-3.3
31.
373.
023.
231.
351.
613.
951.
602.
172.
701.
63
NAT
UR
AL R
ESO
UR
CES
& M
ININ
G...
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
.....
3,77
33,
428
2,72
22,
618
2,11
72,
788
2,49
62,
838
2,75
42,
749
2,82
32,
883
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…-1
.11
-9.1
4-2
0.60
-3.8
2-1
9.15
31.7
4-1
0.48
13.6
9-2
.95
-0.1
92.
672.
13
CO
NST
RU
CTI
ON
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
..10
,452
9,14
48,
654
8,89
59,
610
9,36
99,
396
9,82
310
,356
11,0
2611
,474
11,4
69
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-8.4
8-1
2.52
-5.3
62.
798.
04-2
.50
0.29
4.55
5.42
6.47
4.06
-0.0
4
MAN
UFA
CTU
RIN
G...
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
..44
,303
39,4
1539
,605
41,2
6243
,515
45,4
7845
,591
46,9
8647
,307
48,4
5749
,144
49,2
55
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-1.7
0-1
1.03
0.48
4.18
5.46
4.51
0.25
3.06
0.68
2.43
1.42
0.23
DU
RAB
LE G
OO
DS.
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
24,8
1520
,468
19,9
1822
,226
24,0
8724
,855
25,3
2626
,775
27,2
4727
,975
28,4
7528
,805
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…4.
25-1
7.52
-2.6
911
.59
8.37
3.19
1.89
5.72
1.76
2.67
1.79
1.16
NO
ND
UR
ABLE
GO
OD
S……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
19,4
8718
,947
19,6
8819
,036
19,4
2820
,623
20,2
6520
,212
20,0
6120
,482
20,6
6920
,450
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…-8
.36
-2.7
73.
91-3
.31
2.06
6.15
-1.7
4-0
.26
-0.7
52.
100.
92-1
.06
T
RAD
E……
……
......
......
......
...…
…...
......
......
...…
…...
......
......
......
......
......
.55
,698
50,4
6052
,770
53,5
1554
,969
55,1
2155
,948
57,6
4859
,209
60,2
7461
,338
62,0
07
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-1.7
4-9
.40
4.58
1.41
2.72
0.28
1.50
3.04
2.71
1.80
1.76
1.09
W
HO
LESA
LE T
RAD
E……
……
……
……
……
……
……
......
......
......
...20
,986
18,1
3819
,183
19,5
0620
,665
20,8
2521
,461
21,9
9222
,060
22,0
4221
,971
21,7
32
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
1.14
-13.
575.
761.
685.
940.
783.
052.
480.
31-0
.08
-0.3
2-1
.09
R
ETAI
L TR
ADE…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
......
......
......
..19
,892
18,7
1819
,376
19,6
2919
,863
19,8
7020
,070
20,8
4221
,950
22,8
1523
,669
24,0
99
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-4.7
6-5
.90
3.51
1.31
1.19
0.04
1.01
3.85
5.32
3.94
3.74
1.82
T
RAN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N &
UTI
LITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…14
,820
13,6
0414
,212
14,3
8014
,442
14,4
2614
,418
14,8
1415
,198
15,4
1715
,698
16,1
76
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-1.5
3-8
.20
4.47
1.19
0.43
-0.1
1-0
.06
2.75
2.59
1.44
1.83
3.04
IN
FOR
MAT
ION
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
......
......
.....
8,99
79,
578
10,0
5710
,163
9,66
88,
972
8,78
59,
942
10,5
7811
,360
12,0
3212
,295
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…3.
586.
465.
001.
05-4
.86
-7.2
0-2
.09
13.1
76.
417.
395.
922.
19
FIN
ANC
IAL
ACTI
VITI
ES…
……
……
……
……
……
……
......
......
......
......
....
38,9
1940
,338
41,8
3943
,584
44,9
2945
,329
46,5
5748
,218
49,5
4750
,305
51,7
6352
,570
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…0.
113.
653.
724.
173.
090.
892.
713.
572.
761.
532.
901.
56
PR
OFE
SSIO
NAL
& B
USI
NES
S SE
RVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
......
..27
,545
25,9
9927
,337
28,3
0030
,462
31,7
5632
,734
34,2
8534
,663
36,1
7838
,867
41,1
38
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
6.49
-5.6
15.
153.
527.
644.
253.
084.
741.
104.
377.
435.
84
ED
UC
ATIO
N &
HEA
LTH
SER
VIC
ES…
……
……
……
……
......
......
......
.....
28,1
6430
,637
31,2
3432
,399
32,8
5733
,486
34,1
8836
,634
36,6
2136
,019
35,7
3236
,440
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…9.
038.
781.
953.
731.
411.
912.
107.
16-0
.04
-1.6
4-0
.80
1.98
L
EISU
RE
& H
OSP
ITAL
ITY…
……
……
……
……
……
……
…...
......
......
......
12,8
3312
,138
12,6
4613
,144
13,5
6313
,709
14,7
2915
,749
15,8
2416
,635
17,5
7017
,788
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…-9
.17
-5.4
14.
183.
943.
191.
077.
446.
930.
485.
125.
621.
24
OTH
ER S
ERVI
CES
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
......
......
......
......
.7,
429
7,05
97,
030
7,07
87,
268
7,08
87,
176
7,17
27,
182
7,34
27,
682
7,84
7
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
-4.7
1-4
.98
-0.4
20.
692.
68-2
.48
1.25
-0.0
60.
152.
224.
632.
15
GO
VER
NM
ENT…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…...
......
......
......
...33
,944
34,7
8732
,682
33,6
6334
,525
34,2
0834
,329
34,1
5634
,277
34,6
6235
,096
35,0
96
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
8.03
2.48
-6.0
53.
002.
56-0
.92
0.36
-0.5
10.
351.
121.
250.
00
F
EDER
AL...
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
8,88
69,
516
9,21
29,
077
8,98
29,
198
9,89
510
,038
10,0
9510
,230
10,1
4310
,048
Perc
enta
ge c
hang
e……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…-5
.58
7.09
-3.2
0-1
.47
-1.0
42.
407.
581.
450.
571.
34-0
.84
-0.9
4
S
TATE
& L
OC
AL…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
…...
......
......
......
...25
,059
25,2
7123
,470
24,5
8625
,543
25,0
1024
,435
24,1
1824
,182
24,4
3224
,952
25,0
47
Pe
rcen
tage
cha
nge…
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
……
13.8
40.
85-7
.13
4.75
3.89
-2.0
9-2
.30
-1.3
00.
271.
032.
130.
38
Boy
d C
ente
r for
Bus
ines
s an
d Ec
onom
ic R
esea
rch,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Ten
ness
ee
Dec
embe
r 202
0H
isto
rical
Dat
a
Tenn
esse
e Ec
onom
etric
Mod
el
Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2012 dollars)