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2020 skills forecast
ENEN
Romania
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9 469 000
FASTEST-GROWING SECTORSGrowth per year 2018-30
Distribution & transport
HIGHEST-DEMAND OCCUPATIONSTotal job openings 2018-30
9%Increase2018-30
% Employment growth 2018-30
1%
3.5%
4.5%
2018-22
2022-26
2026-30
4 203 000
36%High
47%Medium
17%Low
Employment in 2030
Key facts: RomaniaCEDEFOP SKILLS FORECAST 2020
Total job openings by qualification level 2030:
Fastest growingsectorNon-marketed services
Top demand occupationBusiness & administration
associateprofessionals
4.4%Increasein employmentin 2018-30
Non-marketed services403 000
408 000
450 000
Sales workers
60%Increase in high-skilledlabour supply 2018-30
EUoverview
2030
2.9%
2.1%
Replacement needs (80%)
New job openings (20%)
Fastest-growing sector
Business & administration associateprofessionals
Non-marketed services
Total job openings, 2018-30
Market-orientedskilled agricultural workers
Drivers and mobile plantoperators
Highest-demand occupation
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1. Employment outlook
Employment in Romania is forecast to grow at a higher rate than
was seen over
2014-18, and in the later part of the forecast period is
expected to grow faster
than the EU-27 average, as shown in Figure 1. The trend is
expected to continue
to 2030, with Romania’s employment growing by more than 4% over
the period
2026-30, which is significantly higher than the EU-27 average
(1.4%). However,
this trend is likely to be hampered in the aftermath of the
Covid-19 crisis. Effects
are, for now, hard to discern but at least in the immediate and
short term the
overall trend may suffer significant disturbances.
Figure 1. Percentage employment growth in Romania and the EU-27,
2014-30
Source: Cedefop (2020 Skills Forecast).
2. Labour force overview
The total labour force is expected to have shrunk by 16% over
the three decades
from 2000 to 2030, with the changes over each decade slowly
reversing from
negative to positive by the end of the forecast period (-20%
over 2000-10, -3%
over 2010-20 and 8% over 2020-30). This increase in the labour
force in the
forecast period is expected to be driven by an increasing
participation among
those aged above 55 years old (see Figure 2). Over the entire
period (2000-30),
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the change in labour force is expected to be greatest among
55-59 years-olds.
This is driven by a rapidly increasing participation rate for
this age group, from
56% in 2000 to 82% in 2030. On the other hand, a sharp reduction
in labour force
growth is expected from those aged 15-34, mainly driven by a
large decline in the
population within this age group.
Over the forecast period, the changes in participation patterns
are most
apparent among those aged 65+, reflecting changes in retirement
age in the
country: the labour force aged 65+ in 2030 is forecast to be
more than double
that in 2020. The change in the participation rate for those
aged 65+ is forecast
to be positive over 2020-30 (9 percentage points (pp)), from a
26 pp decline over
2000-10 and a 3 pp decline over 2010-20.
Again, these overall trends may suffer from the effects of the
Covid-19 crisis.
It is likely that effects will be felt by the older age group,
as their forecast
participation may decline. However, if a vaccine or treatments
for the virus are
developed it is likely that trends will resume and the end
result for 2030 will not
differ substantially.
Figure 2. Distribution of the labour force (thousands),
2000-30
2000 2010
2020 2030
Source: Cedefop (2020 Skills Forecast).
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The labour force in Romania is also affected by labour migration
to the EU-
15. There have been successive increases in the minimum salary
throughout the
last few years, as well as the introduction of a differentiated
minimum salary for
higher education graduates (implemented in 2019) and an increase
in salaries in
the public sector, including health and education. In spite of
these, migration of
the labour force to the EU-15 is expected to continue.
These were the trends previous to the outbreak of the Covid-19
crisis. It is
highly unlikely that freedom of movement will be restored to
previous standards
or at least not in the immediate and short term. Large numbers
of migrant
workers have made their way home and are most likely to stay in
the short run.
Thus, their could be a pause in migration for employment abroad
in the near
term. How much it will resume after the crisis is over remains
to be seen, being
largely dependent on how much of the former degree of freedom of
movement
will be restored to the EU market (the primary destination of
Romanian migrant
workers).
3. Sectoral employment trends
As Figure 3 shows, employment growth in most sectors is expected
to slow in the
short term (2018-22) and pick up again in the longer term (over
2022-30),
although remaining at lower rates than were seen over
2014-18.
Growth in employment is expected to continue to be driven by
non-marketed
services, distribution and transport, and, to a lesser extent,
business and other
services, reflecting the gradual shift towards a more
service-oriented economy.
Distribution and transport, in particular, is expected to see
continued growth in
employment of around 2.7-2.9% pa over the whole of the forecast
period.
Employment in construction is expected to decline in the short
term (2018-
22), but to grow relatively strongly over the longer term
(2022-30). Employment in
agriculture is expected to continue to shrink, while
manufacturing will be stable in
the short term, with somewhat stronger growth over 2022-30.
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Figure 3. Employment growth by broad sector of economic
activity, 2018-30
Source: Cedefop (2020 Skills Forecast).
Within the manufacturing broad sector, employment growth over
2018-30 is
expected to be driven largely by increases in employment in
food, drink and
tobacco and engineering. In other broad sectors, sub-sectors
such as wholesale
and retail trade, accommodation and catering and transport are
also expected to
grow over the forecast period. Transportation, logistics and
manufacturing, with
its important sub-sector of motor vehicles, are expected to be
the most affected
by robotisation and automation.
Among the service sectors, legal, accounting and consulting
and
telecommunications are expected to be the top performers over
2018-30, and
administrative and support services is expected to see the worst
performance
given the increased digitalisation of the services they
offer.
These developments have to be watched however against the
different
background shaped by the COVID 19 crisis. Labour intensive
services which
were highly dependent on the free and un-impeded movement and
socialising of
individuals are likely to hve been badly hurt. How much they
will resume their
activity and to what extent they will be still able to employ at
rates previous to the
crisis is unknown. However it is highly likely that for a while
they will see their
employment generation capacity affected. This particularly
refers to the HORECA
sector, to distribution and transport and even to construction
as for sure a
recession will follow the COVID 19 crisis and this will be
reflected in evolutions of
pro-cycle sectors such as construction.
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4. Job openings by occupational group
The Cedefop skills forecast estimates the total job openings by
occupational group as
the sum of net employment change and replacement needs. Net
employment change
refers to new jobs created due to the expansion of employment in
that sector or
occupation. Replacement needs arise as the workforce leaves the
occupation due to
retirement or career changes. Replacement needs, generally,
provide more job
opportunities than new jobs, meaning that significant job
opportunities arise even in
occupations declining in size (i.e. agricultural workers are a
typical example, as
ageing workers employed in the sector will need to be
replaced).
Figure 4 shows the total job openings by broad occupational
group over 2018-30.
The number of job openings indicates the number of jobs that are
required to be
filled due to lost/newly created jobs and those that are in need
of replacement
workers. Most occupations, except for craft and related trades
workers and
skilled agricultural and fishery workers, which are shrinking,
are expected to
experience an increase in the number of jobs. The negative
‘new/lost jobs’ for the
latter (skilled agricultural and fishery workers) is due to poor
prospects for total
employment in that particular occupation, due to sectoral
requirements. However,
there are forecast to be substantial ‘replacement needs’
(approximately one
million) over 2018-30, as a large number of workers are expected
to leave the
occupation due to retirement or career changes. Overall,
therefore, there is still
expected to be a relatively strong demand for workers in this
occupation over the
forecast period. Professionals is expected to generate the
largest number of job
openings over the forecast period (over one million), accounting
for 25% of total
job openings.
At the more detailed level, the most job openings (taking both
new/lost jobs
and replacement needs together) are expected to be in skilled
manual
occupations for all qualifications (approximately 1.5 million).
Among these
occupations, drivers and mobile plant operators and building and
related trades
workers, excluding electricians are expected to have the highest
job openings
(408 000 and 175 000 respectively). The dual VET education
established
recently will help to provide the workers needed for these
occupations. Job
creation is mostly concentrated in high-skilled non-manual
occupations (highest
number in legal, social and cultural professionals) and skilled
non-manual
occupations (highest number in general office clerks) driven by
the expansion in
non-marketed services. The lowest number of job opportunities
are expected for
elementary occupations.
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Figure 4. Job openings by broad occupational group, 2018-30
Source: Cedefop (2020 Skills Forecast).
As it has been said previously while these trends may hold for
the end of the
decade this general trend may be put into doubt by the severity
of the COVID 19
crisis. It is highly unlikely that the massive shock applied on
both the demand and
the supply side of output generating processes will not be
reflected into a lesser
job generation especially in an emerging market environment
where such bouts
will exacerbate innate sentiments of insecurity and
unpredictability. Therefore
most of the figures will have to be necessarily lower than
expected. By how
much, it is nevertheless hard to say. It is also doubtful that
the massive
replacement of agricultural workers will actually ever occur
given the
circumstances. Therefore, all figures will have to be weighed
against this entirely
un-expected and violent shock, at least for the near future!
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5. Drivers of occupational change
Within the Cedefop skills forecast, future employment growth (or
decline) of
occupations is further broken down by separating national
economic components
from regional industrial and economic effects, helping to
interpret what is driving the
change. From this perspective employment growth can be explained
by three
possible drivers: (a) overall trends of the economy (i.e. growth
or decline), (b) shifts of
employment between sectors and (c) changes in the occupational
structure within
sectors (i.e. factors making some occupations more important
than others).
The Romanian labour market is changing both within and across
sectors in the
development of occupations. There are strong increases among
professionals, in
which all underlying occupations are increasing their importance
in the sectors
while they also are mainly employed in growing sectors. Partly,
this is at the cost
of technicians and associate professionals who are employed in
similar sectors,
thus enjoying growth through the development of those sectors,
while being to
some degree pushed out by higher levels of education (i.e.
professionals). Only
the underlying occupations of business and administration
associate
professionals along with the legal, social, cultural and other
associate
professionals tend to increase their importance in the sectors
they are employed
in. The small but important group of legislators, senior
officials and managers are
growing through the sector effect (i.e. they are employed in
growing sectors) but
the occupation-specific effects are mixed. A similar picture
emerges among the
medium level occupation of clerks. Here the subgroup of general
and keyboard
clerks, along with customer service clerks, are increasing due
to their growing
share within sectors, while clerks in general are employed in
growing sectors of
the economy. Skilled agricultural and fishery workers are
decreasing in their
share of the sectors employed, mainly agriculture, while the
sector itself is also
decreasing. This points towards a greater specialisation in the
sector that
increases non-agricultural professions along with low educated
agricultural
workers at the cost of the medium level occupations. A similar
development can
be found among the craft and related trades workers. Plant and
machine
operators and assemblers show a divergent development where
stationary plant
and machine operators are decreasing in importance, most likely
through
increased digitisation and robotisation, while assemblers as
well as drivers and
mobile plant operators seem to be spared from the effect of
digitisation and
robotisation.
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6. Demand for and supply of skills
Within the Cedefop skills forecast, skills are proxied by the
highest level of
qualification held by individuals in the labour force and in
employment. Three levels
are distinguished, high, medium, and low, which correspond to
the official ISCED
classification. The occupational group also offers an indication
of the skill level
required, as some occupations (e.g. professionals) typically
require high-level skills,
while some others (e.g. elementary) typically require only basic
ones. Therefore,
occupational groups are also linked to a skill level.
Figure 5 shows the shares of total job openings by qualification
level for Romania
and the EU-27 over 2018-30. In Romania, around half of all job
openings over
this period are expected to require a high qualification, around
5 percentage
points (PP) lower than the EU-27 average. Compared to the EU-27
average, a
much lower share of job openings are expected to require a
medium qualification,
and a much higher share are expected to require low
qualifications.
Source: Cedefop (2020 Skills Forecast).
Figure 5. Shares of total job openings by level of
qualification, 2018-30
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Future labour supply trends depend on the size of the working
age population
(defined as aged 15 or older), the labour market participation
rates, and the extent to
which people acquire formal qualifications.
Figure 6 depicts the development of qualification shares in the
labour force in
Romania and the EU-27. Romania is rapidly increasing the share
of higher
qualified on the labour market. While the share was at 20% in
2014, it is
expected to increase to just over one third of the labour force
by 2030.
In the past, the increase in the share of high qualified labour
force was
predominantly at the cost of older, low qualified workers.
However, it is expected
to come out of the share of medium qualified workers in the
future, who are
expected to see a decrease in their share from 57% in 2018 to
39% in 2030. The
trend is similar to that of the EU-27, albeit that Romania has
had lower levels of
higher qualified and high levels of medium and low qualified.
Relative to the EU-
27 averages, Romania is expected to catch-up somewhat in
aligning their
qualification mix, although the share of low qualified workers
is actually forecast
to increase slightly.
Source: Cedefop (2020 Skills Forecast).
Figure 6. Labour force share by level of qualification,
2014-30
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Overall, the forecast implies an increasing shortage, especially
among the
medium qualified. While the supply of higher educated is
forecast to sufficiently
fill the demand within higher level occupations, there are
shortages to be
expected at the lower end. Demand and supply are decoupled as
the growing
number of higher education graduates will confront a labour
market whereby
opportunities for employment will not match their training.
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Figure 7 shows an indicator, difficulty of hiring, whose aim is
to approximate
shortages of supply by qualifications and its impact on
occupations. This measure,
shown along the vertical axis, indicates increasing difficulties
to fulfil demand given
the available supply of qualifications used in the occupation.
Along the horizontal
axis, the degree of hiring required in the occupation is
depicted. Higher values
indicate that to reach the forecast result that occupation will
need to adjust more (in
terms of workers with particular qualifications) relative to the
base year (2018) levels.
These changes (degree of hiring required) can be due to a change
in the
qualifications required or increases in the number employed. The
size of the bubble
indicates the overall employment level, bigger bubbles indicate
more employment
while smaller bubbles less employment.
Occupations with both a high degree of hiring required and a
high difficulty of hiring
(i.e. towards the top right of the figure) are likely to have
the most difficulties in
achieving a suitable workforce.
Figure 7. Indicators of future hiring difficulties, 2018-30
N.B: Indicators were calculated at the level of the underlying
two-digit occupation groups. Aggregation was based on the
employment weights within each one-digit occupation group.
Source: Cedefop (2020 Skills Forecast).
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The increasing supply of higher educated workers implies that
there could
be shortages among the medium qualified. These shortages can
thus imply that
higher educated workers might have to be employed within
occupations at a
lower level than they have qualifications for, or it will result
in hiring difficulties. It
is thus of no surprise that medium level occupations in the
crafts, the plant and
machine operators and assemblers, as well as the service workers
and shop and
market sales workers are expected to show higher levels of
hiring difficulties in
the forecast (Figure 7). These hiring difficulties are expected
to occur alongside
high levels of hiring within these occupations. While
professionals are implied to
have less hiring difficulties, as they usually hire from the
supply of higher
qualified, they also show a high level of hiring in the forecast
period. A low
degree of hiring required along with modest hiring difficulties
can be found among
the skilled agricultural and fishery workers.
Hiring difficulties among professionals are very low across the
underlying
occupations, with the exception of health professionals (8)
which show some
difficulties of hiring. At the same time, the degree hiring
required in this
occupation (83) is expected to be much higher than the average
for professionals
as a whole (43) indicating greater imbalances. Science and
engineering
professionals (21) and teaching professionals (31) show a degree
of hiring
required which is well below the average.
All of these imbalances are likely to get tougher as the
Covid-19 crisis
unwinds itself into a recession. As job generation will be
affected exactly in those
sectors where the demand was previously considered to be higher
and where the
higher educated would have replaced the medium educated, this
will result in
even higher unemployment for the higher educated. In turn this
will point even
more to the significant decoupling that occurred between supply
and demand
during the past decades or so. Downturns in the cycle, no matter
how they are
generated and where they stem from, tend to highlight such
imbalances.
Accordingly, there will be a greater need to reform education
and emphasise the
vocational training route.
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Cedefop methodology and scenarios
The Cedefop Skills Forecast offers quantitative projections of
future trends in
employment, by sector of economic activity and occupational
group. Future trends in
the level of education of the population and the labour force
are also estimated.
Cedefop’s forecast uses harmonised international data and a
common
methodological approach allowing cross-country comparisons
between employment
trends in sectors, occupations and qualifications. The forecast
and methodology is
validated by a group of national experts. The forecast does not
substitute national
forecasts, which often use more detailed methodologies and data,
while they also
incorporate in-depth knowledge of a country’s labour market.
The latest round of the forecast covers the period up to 2030.
The forecast takes
account of global economic developments up to May 2019. The
European economy
is continued to expand for the seventh year in a row in 2019,
with real GDP growing
in all EU Member States. As global uncertainties continue to
weigh, domestic
dynamics are set to support the European economy. The key
assumptions of the
baseline scenario incorporate the Eurostat population forecast
available in May 2019
(Europop 2015) (2) and the short-term macroeconomic forecast
produced by DG
ECFIN in May 2019 (3).
The Cedefop Skills forecast was developed before the global
Covid-19 pandemic had
begun. The short-term economic impacts of the pandemic and
subsequent lockdowns
in many countries are very uncertain, and therefore the current
short-term forecast is
likely to be over-optimistic. However, the key long-term factors
(such as the ageing
population, increasing use of automation/artificial
intelligence, globalisation, resource
scarcity and moves towards a carbon neutral economy) will still
hold as the EU
Member States put plans in place to deal with the virus and
their economies move
forwards. The trends in the longer-term forecast are therefore
still likely to hold.
For the latest update and access to more detailed Cedefop skills
forecast data
please visit:
http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/el/events-and-projects/projects/forecasting-skill-
demand-and-supply
(2)
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-
projections/population-projections-data
(3)
https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-
forecasts/economic-forecasts/spring-2019-economic-forecast-growth-continues-
more-moderate-pace_en
http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/el/events-and-projects/projects/forecasting-skill-demand-and-supplyhttp://www.cedefop.europa.eu/el/events-and-projects/projects/forecasting-skill-demand-and-supplyhttps://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-projections/population-projections-datahttps://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-projections/population-projections-datahttps://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/spring-2019-economic-forecast-growth-continues-more-moderate-pace_enhttps://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/spring-2019-economic-forecast-growth-continues-more-moderate-pace_enhttps://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/spring-2019-economic-forecast-growth-continues-more-moderate-pace_enhttp://www.cedefop.europa.eu/el/events-and-projects/projects/forecasting-skill-demand-and-supply
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15
For more details, please contact Cedefop’s Skills Forecast team
at: Skills-
[email protected]
The country fiche for Romania has been developed in
collaboration with Catalin
Corneliu Ghinararu, scientific secretary at the National Labour
Research
Institute/INCSMPS, Romania.
Please cite this publication as:
Cedefop (2020). Skills forecast 2020: Romania. Cedefop skills
forecast.
https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/publications-and-resources/country-reports/romania-
2020-skills-forecast
© European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training
(Cedefop), 2020.
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International.
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