2020 Pulse of Oakland Voter Poll Key Results

For the past 20+ years the Oakland Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce has annually engaged a data research firm to poll Oakland residents’ views on a host of quality of life, economic, business and public safety issues as well as the efficacy of our elected officials. We use this information to educate our city leadership on what voters feel and want from their government. The 2020 poll was presented by Dave Metz, FM3 Research, at the annual Pulse of Oakland event on October 28.

Findings from a Citywide Voter Survey Conducted October 18-21, 2020 by FM3 Research

Survey Methodologyü 624 interviews with Oakland

voters likely to cast ballots inNovember 2020

ü Interviews conductedOctober 18 - 21, 2020

ü Interviews conducted online,on landlines and cell phones

ü Margin of sampling error of+/-4.0% at the 95%confidence level

ü Some percentages may notsum to 100% due to rounding

2

Key Findings1. While local voters continue to view Oakland as vibrant

and diverse, they’re increasingly worried about the City’seconomy and unsure that it will improve by next year.

2. Voters think the worst of the pandemic is yet to come, butbroadly approve of local government’s response to it.

3. Despite the impact of the coronavirus, homelessness andhousing issues remain voters’ top concerns.

4. Overall perceptions of City government’s performanceremain mixed.

5. Voters overwhelmingly agree the economy has worsenedin the last year, but are divided on whether it will improveor worsen in the year to come.

6. Continuing a trend that began last year, votersincreasingly express concern about safety – both citywideand in their neighborhood.

7. Voters continue to view building a stadium for the A’s asimportant.

4

5Q2.

39%35%

31%

71%68% 70%

58%

62%69%

49%

48%

25%20%

23%19%

23%26%

17%

27%33%

36%

45%

61%

52%

47%41%

31%28%

40%43%

44%

20% 19% 17%

26% 24%

19%

33%38%

58%63%

54%

66%

55% 54%

59%

47%

50%46%

38%

24%27%

36%41%

53% 51%

Sept. '97

March '98May '98

Oct. '99Feb. '00

March '01June '01

July '01May '02

June '02

March '05April '0

9Nov. '09

Jan. '10Aug. '10

April '12

Sept. '12

Aug. '13Sept. '1

3

March '14July '14

Oct. '14Oct. '1

5Oct. '1

6Oct. '1

7Oct. '1

8

Oct.-Nov. '19

Oct. '20

Right Direction Wrong Track

Would you say that things in the City of Oakland are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

A majority of voters continues to be pessimistic about the city’s direction.

15

Ext./Very Ser. Prob.97%

86%

84%

83%

78%

75%

74%

73%

72%

64%

49%

54%

47%

46%

37%

42%

25%

22%

35%

29%

31%

29%

37%

31%

9%

13%

14%

18%

15%

18%

17%

6%

7%

5%

Homelessness

Homeless encampments

The economic impact of the coronavirus

A lack of housing that middle-income families can afford

The cost of living

The cost of rent

Unemployment

The health impact of the coronavirus

Ext. Ser. Prob. Very Ser. Prob. Smwt. Ser. Prob. Not a Prob. Don't Know

Q17. I’m going to read you a list of things some people say may be problems facing Oakland. Please tell me whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a problem for Oakland residents. Split Sample

Homelessness, impacts of COVID-19 and housing affordability are top issues in Oakland.

17Q17 a-g & k-p. I’m going to read you a list of things some people say may be problems facing Oakland. Please tell me whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a problem for Oakland residents. Split Sample

Problem 2017 2018 2019 2020 Difference2019-2020

Unemployment 41% 37% 45% 74% +29%Crime 45% 45% 54% 58% +4%

A lack of housing that middle-income families can afford

77% 84% 80% 83% +3%

Displacement of long-term residents 67% 75% 71% 73% +2%Homelessness 92% 91% 96% 97% +1%

Too much growth and development 18% 28% 29% 30% +1%The amount you pay in property taxes 33% 36% 49% 48% -1%

The cost of living 65% 75% 80% 78% -2%Too little growth and development -- 16% 32% 30% -2%

Homeless encampments -- 82% 90% 86% -4%The cost of rent 76% 79% 82% 75% -7%

The condition of local streets and roads 57% 61% 71% 63% -8%Traffic congestion 39% 47% 56% 39% -17%

(Extremely/Very Serious Problem)

For obvious reasons, unemployment has skyrocketed as a concern in the last year

and traffic has decreased the most.

35

36

41% 43%

24%20%

17%13% 12% 13%

35%38%

34%39%

35%

24%

15%

13%

20%

35% 34%

46%51%

47%

55%

25%22%

25% 24%

31%

37%

45%

Feb. '99Oct. '9

9Nov. '09

Jan. '10Aug. '10

Apr. '12

Sept. '12

Sept. '13

Oct. '14

Oct. '15

Oct. '16

Oct. '17

Oct. '18

Oct./Nov. '19

Oct. '20

Safer Less Safe

Would you say you feel safer today in Oakland than you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe?

Q22. Split Sample

Voters increasingly say they feel less safe in Oakland.

38Q24.

8%

51%

38%

3%

Increased

Stayed the same

Decreased

Don't know

I’d like to ask you about the Oakland Police Department. Over the last few months, would you

say that your trust in the Oakland Police Department has increased, stayed the same, or decreased?

A majority says their trust in OPD has stayed the same, while more than one-

third say it has decreased.

13%

24%

12%

11%

8%

11%

10%

10%

38%

50%59%

42%58%

48%52%

44%

56%35%

54%49%48%47%

46%54%

57%35%

32%36%

51%33%

28%42%

45%

35%48%

33%40%35%41%

48%34%

31%24%

1 – Kalb2 – Bas

3 – McElhaney4 – Thao5 – Gallo

6 – Taylor7 – Reid

WhitesLatinos

African AmericansAsians/Pacific Islanders

ChineseAll Voters of Color

ProgressiveLiberal

ModerateConservative

Increased Stayed the Same Decreased Don't Know

39Q26.

Do you think the City of Oakland should:

A majority support maintaining or increasing the number of police.

31%

27%

27%

15%

Increase thenumber of police

Maintain the currentnumber of police

Reduce thenumber of police

Don't know

40

Overall majorities across Oakland agree the number of police force should be maintained or increased.

Q26.

Demographic Group Increase Maintain Reduce Don’t KnowAll Voters 31% 27% 27% 15%City Council District1 – Dan Kalb 37% 16% 31% 16%2 – Nikki Fortunato Bas 18% 34% 34% 15%3 – Lynette Gibson McElhaney 18% 26% 40% 16%4 – Sheng Thao 34% 30% 23% 14%5 – Noel Gallo 33% 39% 21% 6%6 – Loren Taylor 27% 31% 17% 26%7 – Larry Reid 55% 20% 15% 10%Race/EthnicityWhites 27% 28% 32% 13%Latinos 26% 19% 38% 17%African Americans 38% 32% 19% 12%All Asians/Pacific Islanders 31% 22% 25% 22%Chinese 34% 18% 24% 23%All Voters of Color 32% 27% 25% 16%Age18-49 24% 25% 35% 16%50-64 41% 25% 17% 17%65+ 41% 34% 14% 11%

41

62%64%66%

52%56%

43%43%

60%64%

53%58%

46%56%

79%54%

32%25%

67%45%

37%

34%26%24%

44%41%

49%38%

34%34%

36%30%

34%36%

19%35%

60%67%

27%46%

53%

10%10%

8%

19%

11%12%

20%9%

12%8%8%

7%9%10%

1 – Kalb2 – Bas

3 – McElhaney4 – Thao5 – Gallo

6 – Taylor7 – Reid

WhitesLatinos

African AmericansAsians/Pacific Islanders

ChineseAll Voters of Color

ProgressiveLiberal

ModerateConservative

18-4950-64

65+

Total Support Total Oppose Don't Know

Q25.

35%

21%

13%

23%

8%

Strongly support

Somewhat support

Somewhat oppose

Strongly oppose

Don't know

Total Support

56%

Total Oppose

36%

Would you support defunding the police in Oakland?

A majority of voters supports defunding the police.

42Q27.

68%

18%

3%

6%

4%

Strongly support

Somewhat support

Somewhat oppose

Strongly oppose

Don't know

Total Support

86%

Total Oppose

9%

Would you support shifting responsibility for some of the tasks currently assigned to the Oakland Police Department – like homelessness response, mental health response, domestic disturbances, special events security, traffic enforcement, or abandoned auto removal – to

other City departments, private companies, or community-based organizations?

More than four in five support the concept of shifting tasks from OPD to other City

departments and CBOs.

46

33Q20.

41%

27%

18%

12%

2%

Very confident

Somewhat confident

Somewhat uneasy

Very uneasy

Don't know

Total Confident

68%

Total Uneasy

30%

Thinking about your personal financial situation over the next few months,

do you feel confident or uneasy you will be able to meet your living expenses?

Nearly one-third say they are uneasy about their financial circumstances.

66%

69%

63%

69%

78%

80%

54%

79%

50%

62%

70%

72%

61%

49%

69%

76%

92%

32%

30%

37%

28%

22%

18%

38%

21%

46%

35%

28%

28%

35%

48%

31%

24%8%

9%

1 – Kalb

2 – Bas

3 – McElhaney

4 – Thao

5 – Gallo

6 – Taylor

7 – Reid

Whites

Latinos

African Americans

Asians/Pacific Islanders

Chinese

All Voters of Color

<$60,000

$60,000-$90,000

$90,000-$150,000

$150,000+

Total Confident Total Uneasy Don't Know

47

14%

41%

56%

54%

61%

71%

61%

12%

22%

13%

12%

11%

7%

15%

64%

28%

20%

23%

19%

15%

17%

11%

10%

11%

11%

8%

6%

7%

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

Better About the Same Worse Don't Know

Q28.

Thinking about Oakland’s economy, would you say Oakland’s economy is better than a year or two ago, or would you say it is worse?

A clear majority agrees the economy has gotten worse compared to the past few years…

48

33%

38%

62%

61%

64%

76%

14%

19%

6%

10%

9%

37%

29%

20%

17%

15%

9%

16%

14%

11%

12%

12%

11%

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Better About the Same Worse Don't Know

Q29.

Do you think Oakland’s economy will be better or worse one year from now?

…but voters are divided on whether it will be better or worse a year from now.

50Q32e. I am going to read you a series of statements. Please tell me if you agree or disagree with the statement. Split Sample

38%

36%

12%

9%

6%

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Don't know

Total Agree74%

Total Disagree

20%

“Having more large companies locate in Oakland is good for our economy because it creates jobs and tax revenue.”

Three in four voters agree that having large companies locate in Oakland is good for the

economy.

51Q30.

Oakland’s population has been growing over the last few years. Overall, do you think Oakland’s new residents have had more of a positive effect, a negative effect, or no effect on life in the city?

10%

11%

27%

25%

21%

27%

14%

19%

13%

8%

14%

10%

2020

2019

Very Pos. Smwt. Pos. Smwt. Neg. Very Neg. No Effect Don't Know Total Pos.

Total Neg.

37% 35%

36% 46%

Voters are divided on whether newcomers have had a positive or

negative effect on the city.

52Q32i. I am going to read you a series of statements. Please tell me if you agree or disagree with the statement. Split Sample

Newer residents are helping the local economy grow and contributing to improved City services by paying taxes

However, two-thirds agree that new residents help the local economy.

28%

23%

39%

38%

37%

31%

11%

16%

13%

11%

16%

11%

12%

8%

6%

2020

2019

2018

Strng. Agree Smwt. Agree Smwt. Disagree Strng. Disagree Don't Know Total Agree

TotalDisagree

66% 22%

60% 32%

70% 24%

53Q32d. I am going to read you a series of statements. Please tell me if you agree or disagree with the statement. Split Sample

“Increasing housing density in Oakland will help address the City’s housing crisis.”

34%

35%

31%

33%

34%

36%

14%

12%

16%

11%

12%

13%

8%

7%

5%

2020

2019

2018

Strng. Agree Smwt. Agree Smwt. Disagree Strng. Disagree Don't Know Total Agree

TotalDisagree

68% 25%

69% 24%

66% 28%

Voters continue to agree that housing density will help address the housing crisis.