2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media

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  • 2020 Election Toolbox

    A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections

    October 8, 2019

    Producer National Journal Presentation Center

  • Roadmap

    Presidential election

    Congressional elections

    Congressional fundraising

    Gubernatorial elections

  • 2016 election

    outcome

    Clinton EC votes, 222

    MN 10

    PA 20

    MI 16

    NC 15

    FL 29

    AZ 11

    GA 16

    Trump EC votes, 189 WI 10

    3

    Potential 2020 electoral college scenarios based on performance in swing states

    Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: May 28, 2019

    2% shift

    towards Clinton

    in swing states

    Clinton EC votes, 222

    MN 10

    PA 20

    MI 16

    NC 15

    FL 29

    AZ 11

    GA 16

    Trump EC votes, 189 WI 10

    4% shift

    towards Clinton

    in swing states

    Clinton EC votes, 222

    MN 10

    PA 20

    MI 16

    NC 15

    FL 29

    AZ 11

    GA 16

    Trump EC votes, 189 WI 10

    *North Carolina did not have a Senate election in 2018

    Sources: Swing states based on Cook Political Report rankings 270 Electoral College votes needed to win

    2018 Senate race

    outcomes in swing

    states

    Clinton EC votes, 222

    MN 10

    PA 20

    MI 16

    NC* 15

    FL 29

    AZ 11

    GA 16

    Trump EC votes, 189 WI 10

  • 4

    Key trends to watch in 2020 elections

    Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: August 13, 2019

    Sources: US News & World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New York Times, Vox.

    Clinton EC votes with Texas, 270 MN 10

    PA 20

    MI 16

    NC 15

    FL 29

    AZ 11

    GA 16

    Trump EC votes w/out Texas, 268 WI 10

    270 Electoral College votes needed to win

    TX 38

    President Trump’s approval rating remains strong in solidly Republican states • In estimates based on 2018 midterm exit polls and results, President Trump received strong approval ratings in solidly

    red states and majority support in key states such as Georgia (51.0%), Texas (50.7%), and Florida (50.2%) • However, Trump had lower levels of support in swing states such as Pennsylvania (46.7%) and Michigan (45.9%)

    Suburban districts may play an important role in 2020 elections • Many suburban districts flipped from red to blue in the 2018 congressional midterm elections: of the 69 suburban

    districts held by Republicans before the midterms, 37 voted for the Democratic House candidate • These suburban voters could play a significant role in both the 2020 presidential election and 2020 congressional races

    Changing demographics in key states could make them more competitive • Metropolitan areas in Texas are projected to double in population from 2010 to 2050 • Texas experienced the largest absolute growth in immigrant population of any state from 2000 to 2017 • If Clinton won Texas, she would have reached the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election

  • Joe Biden

    Elizabeth Warren

    Bernie Sanders

    Kamala Harris

    Pete Buttigieg

    Cory Booker

    Amy Klobuchar

    Andrew Yang

    Julian Castro

    Beto O’Rourke

    Wayne Messam

    Marianne Williamson

    Tom Steyer

    John Delaney

    Joe Sestak

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Tim Ryan

    Steve Bullock

    Michael Bennet

    Bill de Blasio (dropped out)

    Kirsten Gillibrand (dropped out)

    Seth Moulton (dropped out)

    Jay Inslee (dropped out)

    John Hickenlooper (dropped out)

    Eric Swalwell (dropped out)

    Donald Trump

    Bill Weld

    Joe Walsh

    Mark Sanford

    2020 candidates for US president

    Slide last updated on: September 20, 2019

  • 6

    Six Democratic primary candidates have dropped their 2020 presidential bid

    2016 and 2020 presidential primary dropout timeline

    AS OF SEPTEMBER 20, 2019

    6

    Sources: Ballotpedia, Fortune, CNN.

    August Gebhard-Koenigstein| Slide last updated on: September 20, 2019

    Indicates a primary debate Indicates the New Hampshire (first line) and Iowa (second line) caucuses

  • 7

    Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) have raised the most so far in the Democratic primary

    46.3

    35.7

    32.3

    26.3 25.1

    22.0

    14.9 13.6

    12.7 12.5

    6.1 5.3 5.3

    4.1 3.5

    19.1

    15.9

    9.7

    18.9

    11.8 11.1

    6.7

    8.7

    6.0 7.1

    3.6 4.1 4.4

    3.0 1.3

    Sources: FEC

    Total receipts at the end Q2 (June 30, 2019)

    ■ Total receipts ■ Total disbursements

    Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: July 23, 2019

    IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

  • 8

    Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) had the most cash on hand of the Democratic field at the end of Q2

    27.27

    22.67

    19.78

    13.27

    10.90

    8.24 7.44

    6.71

    5.36 5.24

    2.44 2.19 1.49 1.19 1.14

    Sources: FEC

    Total cash on hand at the end Q2 (June 30, 2019)

    Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: July 23, 2019

    IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

  • 16 16

    11

    8

    3

    5

    2 2 1

    2

    5

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    3

    1

    1

    1

    2

    5

    1

    1 1

    2

    Biden Harris Booker Warren Klobuchar O'Rourke Sanders Castro Buttigieg Delaney Bullock

    9

    Joe Biden and Kamala Harris lead the pack of Democratic contenders in number of endorsements

    Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: October 1, 2019

    Sources: FiveThirtyEight

    ■ Representative endorsement ■ Senator endorsement ■ Governor endorsement ■ Mayor endorsement

    Endorsements for declared Democratic candidates

  • Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

    Sources: National Journal Research, 2019

    Bernie Sanders currently has the largest social media following of any declared presidential candidate besides Trump

    10

    Current as of October 8, 2019

    ■ Facebook likes ■ Twitter followers ■ Instagram followers

    Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: October 8, 2019

    0

    2,000,000

    4,000,000

    6,000,000

    8,000,000

    10,000,000

    12,000,000

    14,000,000

    16,000,000

    18,000,000

    20,000,000 Donald Trump Facebook likes: 24.5 million Twitter followers: 65.4 million Instagram followers: 14.9 million

  • Ashley Thieme | Slide last updated on: August 15, 2019

    Sources: New York Times

    11

    14 states will hold their primary elections on Super Tuesday Preliminary 2020 primary schedule

    ■ Primary for both parties ■ Democratic primary ■ Republican Primary

    February

    1 2 3 4

    5 6 7 8 9 10 11

    12 13 14 15 16 17 18

    19 20 21 22 23 24 25

    26 27 28 29 30

    March April

    May June

    1

    2 3 4 5 6 7 8

    9 10 11 12 13 14 15

    16 17 18 19 20 21 22

    23 24 25 26 27 28 29

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7

    8 9 10 11 12 13 14

    15 16 17 18 19 20 21

    22 23 24 25 26 27 28

    29 30 31

    1 2

    3 4 5 6 7 8 9

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16

    17 18 19 20 21 22 23

    24 25 26 27 28 29 30

    31

    1 2 3 4 5 6

    7 8 9 10 11 12 13

    14 15 16 17 18 19 20

    21 22 23 24 25 26 27

    28 29 30

    Feb. 3: IA caucus Feb. 11: NH Feb. 15: SC (R) Feb. 22: NV caucus (D) Feb. 25: NV caucus (R) Feb. 29: SC (D)

    March 3: Super Tuesday (AL, AK (R), AR, CA, CO, GA, MA, MN, NC, OK, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, American Samoa caucus (D), Democrats Abroad) March 7: KS caucus (R), KY caucus (R), LA, ME caucus (R) March 8: ME caucus (D), Puerto Rico (R) March 10: HI caucus (R), ID, MI, MS, MO, ND caucus (D), OH, WA

    March 12: Virgin Islands caucus (R) March 14: DC (R), Guam caucus (R), Northern Marianas (D), WY (R) March 17: AZ, FL, IL, Northern Marianas (R) March 24: American Samoa caucus (R)

    April 3-5: ND (R) April 4: AK (D), HI (D) April 7: WI April 21: NY (R) April 28: CT, DE, MD, NY (D), PA, RI

    May 2: KS (D), Guam caucus (D) May 5: IN May 12: NE, WV May 19: KY (D), OR

    June 2: MT, NJ, NM, SD June 6: Virgin Islands caucus (D) June 7: Puerto Rico (D) June 16: DC (D) Not yet scheduled: WY caucus (D)

    Democratic National Convention: July 13-16

    Republican National Convention: August 24- 27

    Conventions

  • Other declared candidates, as of October 7, 2019

    Candidate % voters' first

    choice

    Tulsi Gabbard 3

    Andrew Yang 3

    Beto O’Rourke 2

    Michael Bennet 1

    Steve Bullock 1

    John Delaney 1

    Amy Klobuchar 1

    Tim Ryan 1

    Julián Castro 0

    Marianne Williamson 0

    Someone else 1

    33 33

    21

    11

    10

    18

    3 0

    5

    2

    8

    2 /1

    2

    2 /1

    9

    2 /2

    6

    3 /5

    3 /1

    2

    3 /1

    9

    3 /2

    6

    4 /2

    4 /9