2020 Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook

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2020 Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook

Tom Wagner | Senior Manager of Maintenance TrainingNovember 10, 2020


Pilot and Technician Outlook methodology

Crew

requirements

Regulatory

requirements

Operator

business models

Aircraft

utilization

Aircraft Market

Outlook

Pilot and Technician Outlook Methodology

2020 – 2039

Pilot & Technician

Outlook


Commercial aviation dramatically impacted by global pandemic

Passenger flights

~50%of normal

Passenger traffic

~25%of normal


Varied recovery paths across regions so far

SOURCES: Weekly level of passenger operations through Week 38 (9/13 - 9/19) FlightRadar24, BR&T Europe, Boeing

Normalized based on 1/12-18 operations

North

AmericaLatin

America

AfricaEurope

(incl. Central Asia)

Middle

East

Other

Asia PacificChina World

27% 80% 33% 60% 44% 35% 55% 54%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Ma

r

Ma

y

Ju

l

Sep

Ma

r

Ma

y

Ju

l

Sep

Ma

r

Ma

y

Ju

l

Sep

Ma

r

Ma

y

Ju

l

Sep

Ma

r

Ma

y

Ju

l

Sep

Ma

r

Ma

y

Ju

l

Sep

Ma

r

Ma

y

Ju

l

Sep

Ma

r

Ma

y

Ju

l

Sep


Domestic markets leading the recovery

August Domestic August International

49%of 2019

12%of 2019

SOURCE: IATA


Key themes

Resilienceof air

travel demand

Recruitmentto support

attrition replacement

and fleet growth

Transformationto enable

better training outcomes


Aviation proven resilient over and over again

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Actual Traffic, RPKs Scenario Trend

RP

Ks (

trill

ion

s)

Market has returned to

trend within 2-3 years

of all major shocksRPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers

SOURCES: ICAO scheduled traffic through 1999 / 2000-2019E IATA stats / 2020F IATA December 2019 Copyright © 2020 Boeing. All rights reserved. | PTO2020 ROLLOUT | 10NOV20

9/11 event~3 Years

Global financial crisis~2 Years

COVID-19 event


$-

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

Mill

ion

s

Maintenance Spend Linear (Maintenance Spend)

Direct

Ma

inte

nance S

pe

nd

(M

illio

ns U

SD

)

Maintenance demand will rebound

9/11 event~3 Years

Global financial crisis~2 Years

SOURCE: U.S. DOT Form 41 Copyright © 2020 Boeing. All rights reserved. | PTO2020 ROLLOUT | 10NOV20

Ongoing maintenance

required for parked

airplanesTrend


Technician retirements expected to surge

33% of U.S. aircraft

mechanics are over the

age of 60SOURCE: ATEC 2019-2020 Pipeline Report, FAA Airmen Certification Branch Copyright © 2020 Boeing. All rights reserved. | PTO2020 ROLLOUT | 10NOV20


Commercial airplane demand continues to grow

Fleet by region

Forecast period: 2020-2039

*Does not include China

Asia Pacific*

North America

Europe

Middle East

Latin America

Russia/Central Asia

Africa

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2019 2039

21%

3%2%6%

7%

20%

21%

AsiaPacific*

NorthAmerica

Europe

MiddleEast

LatinAmerica

Russia &Central Asia Africa

New airplane deliveries by region

43,11025,900

48,400

20%China

China


After 9/11 & SARS(5-year average)

After GreatFinancial Crisis(5-year average)

"Average" times

44%

56%

48%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

CMO 2019 CMO 2020 -10 year

CMO 2020 -20 year

Shocks accelerate fleet retirements and replacement

Average annual fleet

retirement rates

Replacement as share

of deliveries

2-3%

~4%

4-5%


Training will undergo a transformation

Fleet modernization will impact training

requirements

Technology enabling analytics, predictive

maintenance

Rapid shift to online learning due to COVID-

related restrictions

2020-2039


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2020 Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook