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2020: A Strategist Approach –2020: A Strategist Approach – How the Changing Face of Higher Education and America Will How the Changing Face of Higher Education and America Will
Affect WhoAffect Who You Are and What You DoYou Are and What You Do Bryan J. Cook
Director, Center for Policy AnalysisAmerican Council on Education
The Major Trends Significance of 2020
Who will learn? Waning boomlet
Traditional redifined
Where are the guys
Exploding diversity
Who will teach?
Who will lead?
Bold Goal: 2020
“…by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world”
-President Barak Obama
Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34)
2007 US Degree Attainment
Top OECD Country in
2020 (projected)
37% 60%
The Problem: 2007 Degree Attainment (ages
25 to 34)Degree
Attainment
+
US citizens with some college, no
degree=
US Degree Attainment
37% 21% 58%
The Problem: Degree attainment and Population
Change (age 25 to 34)Race Percent with college
degree in 2007Increase in
population by 2020
Hispanic 20%
Black 28%
White 47%
Asian 73%
The Problem: Degree attainment and Population
Change (age 25 to 34)Race Percent with college
degree in 2007Increase in
population by 2020
Hispanic 20% 30%
Black 28% 23%
White 47% 8%
Asian 73% 15%
Percent Change in NY Population by Race, 2005 to
2025
19%
40%
58%
21%
-6%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
White Black Hispanic Asian NativeAmerican
Source: US Census Bureau
Higher Education: 2009 to 2020
• Increased access
• More accountability
• Greater transparency
• Cost containment
The Future of Higher Education
A Cautionary TaleDOE Undergraduate Enrollment Projections
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
En
rollm
en
t in
Mill
ion
s
Actual Enrollment
1995 Projection
2000 Projection
2005 Projection
2007 Projection
Source: U.S. Department of Education, Projection of Education Statistics.
The Waning BoomletHigh School Graduates, 2000 to 2020
2.52.62.72.82.93.03.13.23.33.43.5
20
00
-01
20
01
-02
20
02
-03
20
03
-04
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
20
19
-20
20
20
-21
Mill
ion
s
Actual
Projected
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door.
High School Graduates: Variability by State
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door.
2001 to 2009 and 2013 to 2021
Sustained loss (2) LA ND
Gain, loss (10) AL AK CT IL MA MI NH NY OH RI
Gain, flat (4) ME MD PA CA
No change (8) DC HI IA MS SD VT WV WY
Flat, gain (7) KS MN MT NE NM OK OR
Sustained gain (20)
AZ AR CO DE FL GA ID IN KY MO NV NC TX NJ SC TN UT VA WI WA
NY High School Graduates 2000 to 2020
168,485
191,615
161,417
140,000145,000
150,000155,000160,000
165,000170,000
175,000180,000185,000
190,000195,000 Actual
Projected
Source: US Census Bureau
Traditional Redefined
The Old Nontraditional StudentPercentage of Total Student Population Age 25 or Older
28
38
42 4339 38
41
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2010 2017
Source: U.S. Department of Education, Digest of Education Statistics 2007.
Percentage of 2007-08 Undergraduates with Nontraditional Characteristics
9
13
27
34
38
50
51
70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
No HS Diploma
Single Parent
Has dependents
Works full time
Delayed enrollment
Financially independent
Attends part time
Any characteristic
The New Nontraditional Student
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study.
A New Market for Higher Education? The Boomers Retire
31
77
31
98
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
18 to 24 Years Old (0% Increase) 55 or Older (28% increase)
Est
ima
ted
Po
pu
latio
n (
in m
illio
ns)
2010
2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Where are the Guys?
Percentage of Dependent Undergraduates Who Are Male, by Race/Ethnicity and income
2007-08
Lowest
Quartile
White 42%
African American
42%
Hispanic 41%
Asian 49%
All Students 42%
Percentage of Dependent Undergraduates Who Are Male, by Race/Ethnicity and income
2007-08
Lowest
Quartile
Middle
Quartile
White 42% 46%
African American
42% 46%
Hispanic 41% 42%
Asian 49% 52%
All Students 42% 46%
Percentage of Dependent Undergraduates Who Are Male, by Race/Ethnicity and income
2007-08
Lowest
Quartile
Middle
Quartile
Highest Quartile
White 42% 46% 50%
African American
42% 46% 48%
Hispanic 41% 42% 48%
Asian 49% 52% 51%
All Students 42% 46% 50%
What’s Happened to the Guys?Bachelor's Degrees Conferred, 1977 to 2006
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
19
77
-78
19
79
-80
19
81
--82
19
83
-84
19
85
-86
19
87
-88
19
89
-90
19
91
-92
19
93
-94
19
95
-96
19
97
-98
19
99
-00
20
01
-02
20
03
-04
20
05
-06
White Women
White Men
Minority Women
Minority Men
Source: King, Gender Equity in Higher Education: Are Male Students at a Disadvantage?
Another Look at the Gender GapAverage Share of 25 to 29 Year Olds with Four or More Years of College
2521
12 129 9
32
37
1718
912
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
White Men White Women AfricanAmerican Men
AfricanAmericanWomen
Hispanic Men HispanicWomen
Pe
rce
nta
ge
1980 to 1984
2000 to 2004
Source: ACE, Minorities in Higher Education 21st Annual Status Report.
What’s Happened to the Guys?College Enrollment, 2000 to 2014
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
20
00
-01
20
02
-03
20
04
-05
20
06
-07
20
08
-09
20
10
-11
20
12
-13
20
14
-15
Men Women
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2014
31% growth
19% growth
Exploding Diversity
Diversity of High School Graduates
1,782 1,621
393
780
336 3526
241127297
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2000-01 2017-18
Hig
h S
cho
ol G
rad
ua
tes
(in th
ou
san
ds)
Hispanic/Latino (187%)
Asian American (90%)
American Indian (34%)
African American (17%)
White (-10%)
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking on the College Door.
Change in NY H.S. Graduates by Race and Gender
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
WhiteFemale
WhiteMale
BlackFemale
BlackMale
HispanicFemale
HispanicMale
AsianFemale
AsianMale
N.A.Female
N.A.Male
Source: NYSED, ORIS 2009
Current Variation in K-12 Diversity
Source: U.S. Department of Education, Common Core of Data 2006-07.
Percentage “Minority”
Northeast South Midwest West
60 percent or more (5)
DCHI, NM, CA, TX
40 to 59 percent (15)
NY, DE, NJMS, LA, MD, FL, GA, SC, NC, AL, VA
IL AZ, NV, AK, OK
20 to 39 percent (16)
CT, RI, MA, PA
AR, TNMI, KS, MO, WI, OH, NE, MN, IN
CO, WA, OR
Less than 20 percent (15)
NH, VT, ME KY, WV SD, ND, IAUT, MT, ID, WY
Cultural DiversityEnrollment Projections by Race, 2000 to 2015
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
(In
Th
ou
san
ds)
White
Minorities16%
61%
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Postsecondary Education Statistics, Projection of Education Statistics to 2015
Cultural DiversityUndergraduates by Immigrant Status,
2000 and 2004
4%10%
5%
80%
6%12%
7%
75%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Foreign-bornCitizen
Citizen,Parent(s)
foreign-born
Residentalien/eligibleNon Citizen
All othercitizens
2000
2004
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, 2003-04.
Graduate and Professional School Enrollment by Race 1980 -2003
White (graduate)
Minorities (graduate)
White (professional)
Minorities (professional)0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1980 1990 1996 1998 2000 2003
20%
219%
-11%
207%
Major Field of Study: First YearWhites African
AmericansHispanics Asian
Americans
Major % % % %
Humanities 9.1 7.0 6.1 7.8
Social Sciences 6.0 5.7 6.1 3.7
STEM 13.8 17.1 13.0 18.9
Education 8.9 5.9 5.2 1.9
Business 11.7 16.5 11.8 13.1
Health 8.5 14.6 9.2 10.4
Technical/
Professional
8.6 10.4 10 4.1
Undecided 32 22.3 37.9 39.1
Major Field of Study: Third YearWhites African
AmericansHispanics Asian
Americans
Major % % % %
Humanities 14.6 10.1 11.3 10.1
Social Sciences 13.1 12.8 11.3 11.2
STEM 15.8 11.4 10.7 25.8
Education 9.8 7.6 7.5 4.0
Business 16.6 16.9 17.7 19.5
Health 7.1 10.1 5.9 7.0
Technical/
Professional
8.7 14.3 9.5 5.7
Undecided 14.3 16.9 26 16.9
Who will teach?
Who Will Teach?Instructional Faculty by Age in 2004
10 6
2323
3132
27 30
662 2
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
All Faculty Tenured/Tenure-track Faculty
71 or Older
65-70
55-64
45-54
35-44
34 or Younger
35% 39%
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.
Faculty Retirements
Expected Retirement Date of Tenured Faculty Age 55 and Older
1 to 5 Years30%
6 to 10 Years25%
11 Years or more15%
Don't Know30%
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.
Who Will Teach?Tenured/Tenure Track Faculty by Age and Race
in 2004
77%86%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Under 55 55 and Older
White
AfricanAmerican
Hispanic
Asian
Native American14%23%
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.
Who Will Teach?Tenured/Tenure Track Faculty by Age
and Sex in 2004
61%72%
39%28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Under 55 55 and older
Men Women
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.
Who will lead?
Who Will Lead?
American Indian, 1%
Hispanic, 5%
White, 87%
Asian American, 1%
African American, 6%
Distribution of College Presidents by Race, 2006
Who Will Lead?
18%
5%
11%
18%
7%
13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Public Four-Year Private Four-Year Public-Two Year
1995
2005
Percent of Minority Presidents by Institution Type, 1995 and 2005
Senior Administrators No More Likely to be People of Color
Percentage of Presidents and Senior Administrators who are People of Color
14%16%
10%
Presidents All Senior Administrators Chief Academic Officers
Sources: ACE. 2007. The American College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. 2008. On the Pathway to Presidency: Characteristics of Higher Education’s Senior Leadership.
Who Will Lead?
Male, 77%
Female, 23%
Distribution of College Presidents by Gender, 2005
Who Will Lead?
17% 16%14%
18% 18%
28%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Public Four-Year Private Four-Year Public-Two Year
1995
2005
Percent of Female Presidents by Institution Type, 1995 and 2005
And more likely to be women …
Percentage of Presidents and Senior Administrators who are Female
23%
38%
45%
Presidents All Senior Administrators Chief Academic Officers
Sources: ACE. 2007. The American College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. Sources: ACE. 2007. The American College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. Forthcoming. On the Pathway to Presidency: Characteristics of Higher Education’s Senior Leadership.
Recapping the Trends
Boomlet will wane nationally, with growth continuing in a few states
A new kind of non-traditional student
Boomer retirees a potentially huge market
Huge educational strides by women
Increasing racial and cultural diversity
Major wave of faculty retirements
