Ad Hoc Committee on Organizational Sustainability and Innovation

February 6, 2020

Enrollment Growth Update

Enrollment Growth is Neither a First Resort nor a Sole Solution

• Tuition increases must be mitigated

• Cost cutting must continue, but it becomes more challenging

• New revenue streams should be pursued

Discussions with Stakeholders• Faculty Assembly

• City Council

• Neighborhood Leaders

Changes & Challenges Lie Ahead• The traditional college-going population is shifting

• Flat or declining populations of college-going students will increase competition

• Opportunities may exist beyond the traditional undergraduate population

600150

4more new students per year over a

-year timeframe

more undergraduates by scaling up to

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

∆ in

Enr

ollin

g Co

hort

of 4

Yea

rs P

rior

Growth Over 4 Years in Enrolling Full-Time Cohorts at Top-50 Universities

25th-75th Pctl. Median

Growth over 4 Years in New Students at Top-50 Universities

Capacity to Support Greater Enrollment

91

135

34

148

202

454

718

509

12.33 12.2612.43

12.2412.15

11.77

11.40

11.70

0

200

400

600

800

10

11

12

13

14

Fall 11 Fall 12 Fall 13 Fall 14 Fall 15 Fall 16 Fall 17 Fall 18

Addi

tiona

l Enr

ollm

ent C

apac

ity w

ithin

12-

to-1

Stud

ent-t

o-Fa

culty

Rat

io

Capacity via Tech-Talent Initiative• $1.4 million in state support to W&M

• Capital support for expansion of ISC 4

• Growth from 62 computer science majors per year (2019 baseline) to 121 per year in 10 years

Va. Public University Enrollment Trends

-35%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%NSU VSU RU UVA-W LU CNU ODU W&M UMW VCU VMI UVA JMU VT GMU

∆ In

-Sta

te H

eadc

ount

Enr

ollm

ent,

2013

-201

8

Source: Calculations from State Council of Higher Education, E2: Fall Headcount Enrollment (1992 thru Current Year)

Change in In-State Undergraduate Enrollment, 2013 to 2018

Va. Public University Enrollment Trends

Demographic Context

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

2020

-21

2021

-22

2022

-23

2023

-24

2024

-25

2025

-26

2026

-27

2027

-28

2028

-29

2029

-30

2030

-31

2031

-32

Mill

ions

Source:Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016.

Projected U.S. High School Graduates

Decline Nationally

4

+20.7% -0.2% -7.4%+3.7%

Decline Nationally

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

2020

-21

2021

-22

2022

-23

2023

-24

2024

-25

2025

-26

2026

-27

2027

-28

2028

-29

2029

-30

2030

-31

2031

-32

Source:Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016.

Projected Virginia High School Graduates

Decline in Virginia

5

+25.7% -0.3% -5.6%+6.7%

Decline in Virginia

Demographic Shifts

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Hispanic White African

American/Black

Asian/Pacific

Islander

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

HS

Gra

du

ate

s

Source: Author’s calculations based on Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education,

Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016.

U.S. High School Graduates

2000-01 2015-16 2031-32

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Hispanic White African

American/Black

Asian/Pacific

Islander

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

HS

Gra

du

ate

s

Source: Author’s calculations based on Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education,

Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016.

Virginia High School Graduates

2000-01 2015-16 2031-32

Demographic Shifts

International Growth Flattening

7

271,318

450,322 444,823

563,697

866,303 861,902

5.0%

7.1% 7.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Perc

ent

of T

otal

Enr

ollm

ent

Stud

ents

Enr

olle

d

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Fall Enrollment.

International Enrollment at U.S. 4-yr. Institutions

Undergraduate-Non-Resident Alien Graduate-Non-Resident Alien Non-Resident Aliens (%)

International Growth Flattening

Near-Term Enrollment Growth Strategies

2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024

ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150

ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024

Enhance Marketing and Communications

ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150

ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024

Enhance Marketing and Communications

Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15

ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150

ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024

Enhance Marketing and Communications

Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15

Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15

ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150

ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024

Enhance Marketing and Communications

Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15

Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15

Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20

ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150

Optimize Grant Aid Allocation for Out-of-State Admits

ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024

Enhance Marketing and Communications

Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15

Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15

Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20

Expand Search Process for 10th & 11th Graders 0 10 15 20

ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150

8

The Funnel• 250,000 students receive search communication

(50,000 Sr search, 200,000 soph/Jr)

• 70,000 students receive prospect mailing(prospects via search + contacts via visits, travel,

fairs, web etc)

• 14,500+ Applicants

• 5,000+Admits

1,545 Enrolling 1,534 Enrolling (Fall 2019)

The Admission Funnel

ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024

Enhance Marketing and Communications

Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15

Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15

Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20

Expand Search Process for 10th & 11th Graders 0 10 15 20

Expand Academic Program Cohort 0 5 10 10

ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150

ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024

Enhance Marketing and Communications

Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15

Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15

Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20

Expand Search Process for 10th & 11th Graders 0 10 15 20

Expand Academic Program Cohort 0 5 10 10

Offer STEM Scholarships Related to Tech Talent 0 10 15 15

ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150

ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024

Enhance Marketing and Communications

Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15

Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15

Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20

Expand Search Process for 10th & 11th Graders 0 10 15 20

Expand Academic Program Cohort 0 5 10 10

Offer STEM Scholarships Related to Tech Talent 0 10 15 15

Fund a New, First-generation/Pell Cohort 0 0 15 15

ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150

ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024

Enhance Marketing and Communications

Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15

Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15

Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20

Expand Search Process for 10th & 11th Graders 0 10 15 20

Expand Academic Program Cohort 0 5 10 10

Offer STEM Scholarships Related to Tech Talent 0 10 15 15

Fund a New, First-generation/Pell Cohort 0 0 15 15

Offer Spring Entry for Freshmen 10 20 30 40

ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150

ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024

Enhance Marketing and Communications

Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15

Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15

Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20

Expand Search Process for 10th & 11th Graders 0 10 15 20

Expand Academic Program Cohort 0 5 10 10

Offer STEM Scholarships Related to Tech Talent 0 10 15 15

Fund a New, First-generation/Pell Cohort 0 0 15 15

Offer Spring Entry for Freshmen 10 20 30 40

ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150

ACTION 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024

Enhance Marketing and Communications

Introduce Modeling for Likelihood of OOS Enrollment 10 15 15 15

Expand IS Pell Packaging and Outreach 5 10 15 15

Increase and Change Allocations of Aid 15 20 20 20

Expand Search Process for 10th & 11th Graders 0 10 15 20

Expand Academic Program Cohort 0 5 10 10

Offer STEM Scholarships Related to Tech Talent 0 10 15 15

Fund a New, First-generation/Pell Cohort 0 0 15 15

Offer Spring Entry for Freshmen 10 20 30 40

ADDITIONAL NEW STUDENTS PER YEAR 40 90 135 150

• Application fee waivers

• Test-optional admission process

• Restructuring of financial-aid tiers

• Expansion of honors programs (e.g., Monroe Scholars)

Longer-Term Possibilities with Implications for Applicant Pool

Next Steps• Completion of enrollment modeling by Maguire

Associates

• Brand platform and marketing assessment by SimpsonScarborough

• Strategic investment to optimize marketing function

• Refinement of costs and implications for net tuition revenue

Questions?