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2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference Gary Hirshberg Chief Organic Optimist Stonyfield Organic

2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

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Page 1: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference

Gary HirshbergChief Organic Optimist

Stonyfield Organic

Page 2: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

2,000.00

2,500.00

3,000.00

3,500.00

4,000.00

4,500.00

2013 2014 2015 2016 52 weeks ending 11/12/2017

Milk Volume – All Outlets (Mil Gallons)

% Chg vs Yago NA -4.1% -1.3% -1.6% -1.7%

Milk prices in 2014 were high relative to recent years

with white gallon costing $.59 more per gallon than 2017

Source: NCP; Total US - All Outlets

Long-term decline in milk volume

2

Page 3: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

82.0% Switching to competitive

beverages(-61.24 mil gal)

15.1%Decreased buying among existing buyers(-11.26 mil gal)

2.9%Lost milk buyers(-2.13 mil gal)

Source of White Milk Volume Loss

Source: NCP; Total US - All Outlets; 52 Weeks Ending 11/12/2017 vs YAG

Lost milk buyers accounted for a small amount (2.9%) of white milk’s volume decline

3

Page 4: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

35,483,894

7,441,891

5,643,1774,521,305 4,453,241 3,776,863

2,316,087 2,293,406605,041 354,816 78,098 17,492

Bottled Water Coffee Tea Juice Plant Beverages Sports Drinks Energy Drinks Flav/Other Milk Yogurt Drinks Club Soda/Tonic Other SSBeverage

Smoothies

White Milk Volume Loss to Competitive Switching (Gallons)

Source: NCP; Total US - All Outlets; 52 Weeks Ending 11/12/2017 vs YAG

53.0% 11.1% 8.4% 6.7% 6.6% 5.6% 3.5% 3.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.03%Share of

Switching

4

Plant beverages accounted for 6.6%

white milk’s volume loss

Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water. Coffee, Tea, Juice, Plant Beverages and Sports Drinks also gained from White Milk’s decline.

Page 5: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

Volume Gains Due to Product Switching

Net Volume Change

Net % Chg Yago

Index% of

Switching Gains

3,433,979 +0.10 63 60%

1,353,076 +0.04 135 24%

922,350 +0.03 127 16%

39,368 +0.00 238 1%

Soda

Instant Coffee

Orange Juice

Single Cup Tea

Source: NCP; Total US - All Outlets; 52 Weeks Ending 11/12/2017 vs YAG

While white milk gained the most volume from soda, interaction was low for soda but higher for these products, indicating that consumers see them as more substitutable

5

A Small Bright Spot: White Milk gained some volume from a few beverages, with 60% of its gain

linked to soda

Page 6: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

LONG TERM US ORGANIC MILK SALES TRENDS REMAIN POSITIVE

Since 2010, Organic Milk has grown 90MM Gallons or +4.6% CAGR. The last 3 years have seen flat volume at 300 mm gallons.

211.7

242.3252.0

264.6

289.0 284.7

300.9 301.1 302.9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

ORGANIC MILK SALES IN U.S.

3.3%ORGANIC AS %

OF TOTAL MILK4.9% 5.2% 5.4% 5.5%4.4% 4.9%4.1%3.9%

MM GALLONSCAGR

8 YR

4.6%

4 YR

1.2%

Page 7: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

Total Dairy Organic Dairy

Time Period Dollars$$ % Chg Dollars

$$ % Chg

Year Ended Jan 2017 $51,582,053,011 (4.6%) $3,481,098,773 7.1%

Year Ended Jan 2018 $51,434,846,315 (0.3%) $3,553,839,872 2.1%

Year Ended Jan 2019 $51,668,990,046 0.5% $3,600,130,414 1.3%

Last Three YR $$$ Details

Page 8: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

Northeast and Vermont Have Outperformed National Over Past 4 Years

-1.8%-2.5%

-1.2%-0.6%

0.1%1.3%

National Northeast Vermont

-1.8% -1.2%-2.3%

VOLUME

5.5% 5.4%7.7%

-5.9%

-4.1%

-2.0%

0.3% 1.4%

4.3%

National Northeast Vermont

-5.3% -1.5%-3.3%

DOLLARS

12.3% 10.2%15.1%

TOTAL MILK

2018 ORGANIC

MILK AS % OF

TOTAL MILK

Conventional

Organic

MILK4 YR CAGR

Organic milk sale volume was flat to down slightly over past four years in US and Northeast. Conventional decline has been less in Northeast and Vermont, than national.

Page 9: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

Yogurt Trend in Opposite Direction – Nat’l outperforms NE & VT

-2.0% -2.1%

-1.2%

2.3% 2.0%

-0.7%

National Northeast Vermont

-1.9% -1.1%-1.8%

VOLUME

3.8% 13.2%6.9%

-1.0%-1.4% -0.2%

6.6%

5.9%

2.0%

National Northeast Vermont

-0.7% 0.1%-0.9%

DOLLARS

4.9% 12.5%8.2%

TOTAL

YOGURT

2018 ORGANIC

YOGURT AS %

OF TOTAL

YOGURT

Conventional

Organic

YOGURT4 YR CAGR

Organic yogurt represents 3.8% of national yogurt volume, while 6.9% of Northeast and 13.2% of Vermont

Page 10: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

Organic Milk Sales per capita

10.8 10.6 10.3 10.1 9.8

0.60.6

0.60.6

0.6

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

SALES PER CAPITA (GALLONS)

9.1 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2

0.70.7

0.70.7

0.7

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

8.3 8.0 8.2 8.0 7.9

0.40.4

0.40.4 0.4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

NATIONAL NORTHEAST VERMONT

Conventional Organic

US Organic milk sales per capita have held steady over the past 4 years. But Conventional milk sales have declined by 1 gallon per capita throughout the US and northeast .

The VT decline has only been half that amount.

Page 11: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

Yogurt Sales per capita

10.2 10.4 10.19.6 9.2

0.3 0.30.4

0.40.4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

YOGURT SALES PER CAPITA

11.8 12.0 11.711.2 10.7

0.7 0.7 0.80.8

0.8

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

11.5 11.6 11.5 11.2 10.9

1.7 1.6 1.61.5

1.7

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

NATIONAL NORTHEAST VERMONT

Conventional Organic

US Organic yogurt sales per capita have grown slightly or held steady over the past 4 years. Conventional yogurt sales have declined by 1 gallon per capita throughout the US and

northeast . Organic is chosen less often in VT than US for milk, but 2X as often for yogurt.

Page 12: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

30 Years of Sustainable Dairy Pay Price

Page 13: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2018/tops-of-2018-organic.html

Page 14: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2018/tops-of-2018-organic.html

Page 15: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2018/tops-of-2018-organic.html

Page 16: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

75% of millennials are willing to pay more for sustainable offerings

66% willing to pay more to buy from companies committed to positive social and environmental practices

Values Matter to Millennials

Page 17: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water
Page 18: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water
Page 19: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water
Page 20: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water
Page 21: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

21

Jump-starting the next generation of organic farmers

As the 1st organic dairy incubator

farm in the U.S., Wolfe's Neck Farm

will be a regional hub for research,

demonstration, and teaching in

sustainable organic dairy and

pasture management.

Launched with a $1.63MM grant

from Danone Ecosysteme Fund and

Stonyfield.

Page 22: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

New Studies About Pesticides/Health Come Out Monthly

Page 23: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

https://www.ewg.org/childrenshealth/glyphosateincereal/

Page 24: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water
Page 25: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water
Page 26: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water
Page 27: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

27

Organic: The Best Way to Protect Yourself and Your Family

“Now a new French study that followed 70,000 adults, most of them women, for five years has reported that the most frequent consumers of organic food had 25 percent fewer cancers over all than those who never ate organic.

December, 2018

Those who ate the most organic fruits, vegetables, dairy products, meat and other foods had a particularly steep drop in the incidence of lymphomas, and a significant reduction in postmenopausal breast cancers.”

Curl, C. Estimating Pesticide Exposure from dietary intake and organic food choices. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2015, 123, 5.Baudry, Julie, Karen E. Assmann, Mathilde Touvier, et al. Association of Frequency of Organic Food Consumption With Cancer Risk. Findings From the NutriNet-Santé Prospective Cohort Study. JAMA Internal Medicine, 2018, 178(12):1597-1606.

Page 28: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water
Page 29: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

Natural & Non-GMO Do NOT Mean Organic

Source: Organic Foods Production Act of 1990

Page 30: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

30

Page 31: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water
Page 32: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water
Page 33: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

We invite bloggers from across the USA to join us on our Farm Tours to help them learn the organic difference of our company.

2017-2018

Stonyfield

Influencer

Farm Tour

Overview

Page 34: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

THE 2017 STONYFIELD VERMONT FALL FARM TOUR

Page 35: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

Design Mom:

Why I’m Obsessed with Organic Farming

“I’m telling you, if you’ve had worry over dairy, it would totally disappear if you saw Julie’s farm. It’s basically a super healthy mini ecosystem. The cows nourish the earth, the earth nourishes the cows. With no chemical run-off, no algae blooms, no dead zones, no waste...it’s amazing.”

GABRIELLE BLAIR, 450,000 Followers

Page 36: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

What’s Gaby Cooking

“The whole trip was incredibly eye opening and while I’m not trying to tell everyone that everything needs to be organic, I’m certainly making changes here and there to make my eating as clean as possible! There is a TON of info on their site if you want to read more about it right here!.”

GABY DALKIN, 1.2 Million Followers

Page 37: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

Why Purchase Organic Dairy?● It’s better for you. Because it comes from cows that are

actively grazing on grass, as nature intended. Organically raised cows spend their days outside on pasture so the milk they produce is significantly higher in Omega-3 fatty acids and CLA (conjugated linoleic acid), heart-healthy fats that can help lower bad cholesterol and increase good cholesterol. There’s also compelling evidence that many organic fruits and veggies are more nutritious, too.

● It’s better for our children’s health. Research has demonstrated that an organic diet can dramatically reduce pesticide levels in kids’ bodies.

● It’s good for the planet. One of the main goals of organic farming practices is to avoid soil contamination as well as rivers, drinking water, and air with toxic persistent chemicals.

● It’s also better for the farmer and their neighbors, as they aren’t exposed to potentially carcinogenic herbicides.

● It’s better for the bees.”

GINA HOMOLKA, 18 Million Followers

Page 38: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

2018 Stonyfield & Blue Apron Farm Tour7 blog post totalBlog UVM Combined: 12,386,000Instagram Combined: 3,440,500Engagement Rate Average: 1.54%CPM Average: $12.83

2018 Southern VT Fall Farm Tour7 blog post totalBlog UVM Combined: 3,174,000Instagram Combined: 663,000Engagement Rate Average: 3.5%CPM Average: $7.52

TOTAL: 41.4 MM Impressions!!!!!Average ER: 3.96% (Industry benchmark 1-3%)Ave CPM: $9.06 (Industry benchmark $11-$30)

2017 VT Fall Farm Tour7 blog post total

Blog UVM Combined: 860,000Instagram combined: 1,451,800

Engagement Rate Average: 7.10%CPM Average: $10.15

2018 West Coast Farm Tour6 blog posts total

Blog UVM Combined: 2,281,500 Instagram combined: 661,600

Engagement Rate Average: 3.7%CPM Average: $5.74

2018 Stonyfield & Blue Apron Farm Tour7 blog post total

Blog UVM Combined: 12,386,000Instagram Combined: 3,440,500

Engagement Rate Average: 1.54%CPM Average: $12.83

2018 Southern VT Fall Farm Tour7 blog post total

Blog UVM Combined: 3,174,000Instagram Combined: 663,000

Engagement Rate Average: 3.5%CPM Average: $7.52

Page 39: 2019 VT Organic Dairy Producers Conference · Share of Switching 4 Plant beverages accounted for 6.6% white milk’s volume loss Half of White Milk’s loss went to Bottled Water

THANK YOU !!