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MOZAMBIQUE - TC IDAIAerial Assessment Report
Date created : 31 March 2019 Created by : IFRC and MapActionPage 1
SUMMARY KEY FINDINGSTC Idai initially made landfall in Mozambique as a tropical storm causing flooding in the Tete and Zambezia provinces on __ March. Idai then moved back out to sea, gathered strength and returned to Mozambique on the night of 14/15 March as a tropical cyclone, with a strength equiva-lent to a category 3 hurricane. The cyclone made landfall very close to Beira, Mozambique’s fourth largest city with a population of 500,000. The cyclone then moved across the central part of the country.
The storm lingered for several days over Zimbabwe and Malawi causing heavy rains every day. The relentless rainfall caused several rivers to overflow downriver in the more low-lying Mozambique leading to wide-spread flooding, estimated through satellite imagery analysis on 20 March to cover 50,000.
A multi-agency rapid aerial assessment was conducted from 24-29 March, under the co-leadership of Mozambique National Disasters Management Institute (INGC), International Federation of Red Cross Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) and the United Nations Disaster Assess-ment and Coordination (UNDAC). The survey was initiated to:
1. Prioritise tasking for critical incidents 2. Estimate overall severity3. Estimate geographic extent of affected area4. Assess and geolocate points of interest
Over 1,000 geotagged images and initial estimates of severity have been collected, three quarters of which in the first three days, and made avail-able for the humanitarian community to use for analysis and planning.
An interactive web map providing access to all images and data is avail-able on the IFRC GO platform, (https://go.ifrc.org/emergencies/3469). Static maps available from MapAction’s map portal (maps.mapac-tion.org/mozambique). Raw data available on OCHA’s Humanitarian Data Exchange portal, HDX (https://bit.ly/2I5aADE)
Four geographic zones of greatest concern
1) Greater Beira area and surrounding lowlands
2) Foot of mountains on Mozambique - Zimbabwe border where fast-flowing mountain rivers fanned out
3) Buzi river basin
4) Coastal areas
Moderate wind damage suggests that the main impacts are a result of accumulated rainfall and downstream flooding Crop damage, particularly of maize, is of great concern – further agronomic assessments are urgently required to assess scale of damage, amount of seeds and crops salvaged by farmers and potential to take advantage of saturated ground for planting of rapidly growing varieties of maize and beans Flooding has receded since the peak and few households were identified which were still under standing water as of 28 March Key infrastructure has largely been rehabilitated and so large-scale delivery of aid by road is possible for the majority Search and rescue phase had ended before the initiation of the survey. While urgent needs remain, particularly in food security, health, shelter, WASH and livelihoods there were no strande communities found during the aerial survey.
Extensive shallow landslides in upper catchments of mountain rivers in the highlands to the east of the affected area (Moz-Zim border) with channelised debris flows that affected villages.
MOZAMBIQUE - TC IDAIAerial Assessment Report
Date created : 31 March 2019 Created by : IFRC and MapActionPage 2
FURTHER USES Common situational awareness of affected areas and scale of need, including images to remotely verify and assess impacts
Key resource for prioritisation of ground assessments, includ-ing the INGC/IFRC/UNDAC multi-sectoral rapid assessment
Targeting aid distributions, including provision of coordinates and images for orientation
Informing the locations of operational hubs – likely that Beira will remain the focal point base of operations but consideration should be given to forward bases in the other four zones of great-est observed impact listed above
Identification of points of interest, including accommodation centres containing displaced people, schools and damaged infra-structure such as bridges and roads.
While there was only one critical incident reported during the aerial survey, the system of reporting, tasking and delivery of humanitarian assistance worked effectively. Within two hours a community judged to be in a critical situation with an estimated population of 500 individuals (Grid square G6) were delivered 1 tonne of food, shelter and other Non-Food Items using air assets, as well as the health of the affected population assessed by medi-cal professionals
Identified three damaged bridges, two of which were critical and one severely damaged
One critical incident reported for immediate tasking
864 points in the first three days (76%) giving a rapid and prioritised view of the geographic extent for early deci-sion-making
102 grids assessed covering an area roughly three times the size of the Serengheti, enabling a common situational over-view
TIMELINE
Chart displays number of points of interest recorded each day, with ¾ being collected over the �rst three days, 24-26 March, when �oodwaters were still near their high-est point
FACTS AND FIGURES
ZIMBABWE
CIDADE DECHIMOIO
BARUE
GONDOLA
MACHAZE
MACOSSA
MANICA
MOSSURIZE
SUSSUNDENGA CIDADEDA BEIRA
BUZI
CAIA
CHERINGOMA
CHIBABAVA
DONDO
MACHANGA
MARINGUE
MARROMEU
MUANZA
NHAMATANDA
GORONGOSA
CHINDE
INHASSUNGEMOPEIA
A94A95
A96
B95
C95
D95
E95 E9
G10G11
H95H96
H97 H7 H8 H9 H10H11
H12
I95I96
I7 I8 I9 I10 I11I12
I13
J95J99
J3 J4 J7 J8 J9J10 J11 J12
J13 J14J15
K95 K98 K99 K3 K4K7
K8 K9 K10 K11 K12 K13 K14
K15K16
L95 L98 L99
L2
L3 L4 L5L6
L7 L8 L9
L10
L11 L12 L13L14
L15
L16
L17
M95 M97 M98M99
M1M2
M3 M4 M5M6
M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12
M13
M14 M15 M16
M17
A97n = 3
A98n = 5
A99n = 7
A1n = 4
A2n = 3
A3n = 4
A4n = 5 A5
n = 4
A6n = 17
A7n = 10
B96n = 6 B97
n = 8 B98n = 8
B99n = 9
B1n = 4
B2n = 8
B3n = 6 B4
n = 5B5
n = 10B6
n = 20
C96n = 8 C97
n = 9C98n = 6
C99n = 6
C1n = 4
C2n = 3
C3n = 5
C4n = 3
C5n = 21
C6n = 6
C7n = 4
D96n = 10
D97n = 9 D98
n = 19
D99n = 23 D1
n = 7D2
n = 6D3
n = 2D4
n = 9D5
n = 36D6
n = 38D7
n = 4
E96n = 10 E97
n = 3
E98n = 7
E99n = 7
E1n = 1
E2n = 12 E3
n = 15 E4n = 10
E5n = 17
E6n = 16 E7
n = 26
E8n = 14
F95n = 4
F96n = 13
F97n = 7
F98n = 6
F99n = 6 F1
n = 3F2
n = 6F3
n = 7 F4n = 13
F5n = 14
F6n = 31
F7n = 42
F8n = 1 F9
n = 19
G95n = 3 G96
n = 4
G97n = 15
G98n = 14
G99n = 7
G1n = 3
G2n = 5
G3n = 13
G4n = 21
G5n = 23
G6n = 12
G7n = 5
G8n = 10
G9n = 10
H98n = 9
H99n = 6
H1n = 6
H2n = 16
H3n = 21
H4n = 13
H5n = 12
H6n = 11
I97n = 7
I98n = 3 I99
n = 8
I1n = 10
I2n = 23
I3n = 11
I4n = 3
I5n = 9 I6
n = 3
J96n = 8
J97n = 6
J98n = 12
J1n = 5
J2n = 8
J5n = 4
J6n = 6
K96n = 7
K97n = 7
K1n = 8
K2n = 4
K5n = 2
K6n = 3
L96n = 8
L97n = 5 L1
n = 2
M96n = 10
Grid Severity scoreCriticalSevereSeriousOf concernNo / Minor
FloodFlood extent (26th March)
RoadsPrimary roadSecondary roadTertiary road
PhysicalRivers
Water bodies
100
Mozambique: Cyclone Idai - results and analysis of aerial survey as of 29th March 2019 v09MA023
Grid score is mean of severity scale weighted by estimated population from aerial survey. n = number of GPS location recorded in each Grid.
Aerial survey conducted by: INGC,IFRC, UNDAC, MSF, DFID, Save thechildren, MapAction
Base data sources: GADM,OpenStreetMap, WFP, UNOSAT, GDACSMap created by MapAction (29/03/2019)
Map shows data collected frommulti-agency aerial assessments to:a) Prioritise tasking for critical incidentsb) Estimate overall severityc) Estimate geographical scoped) Assess and geolocate points of interest
ZIMBABWE
CIDADE DECHIMOIO
BARUE
GONDOLA
MACHAZE
MACOSSA
MANICA
MOSSURIZE
SUSSUNDENGA
CIDADEDA BEIRA
BUZI
CAIA
CHERINGOMA
CHIBABAVA
DONDO
MACHANGA
MARINGUE
MARROMEU
MUANZA
NHAMATANDA
GORONGOSA
CHINDE
INHASSUNGEMOPEIA
NICOADALA
A94
A95
A96
A97
A98 A99A1
A2 A3A4
A5 A6 A7
B95B96
B97B98
B99 B1 B2B3
B4 B5 B6
C95
C96
C97 C98 C99C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7
D95 D96D97
D98D99
D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7
E95 E96 E97 E98 E99 E1E2
E3 E4 E5 E6
E7
E8 E9
F95
F96
F97 F98
F99
F1 F2 F3F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9
G95G96
G97 G98 G99 G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8
G9 G10
G11
H95H96
H97H98
H99 H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 H10H11
H12
I95I96
I97I98 I99
I1 I2 I3I4 I5
I6I7 I8 I9 I10 I11
I12I13
J95 J96 J97 J98 J99 J1 J2J3
J4 J5J6
J7 J8 J9J10
J11 J12
J13 J14J15
K95 K96 K97 K98
K99
K1 K2 K3 K4 K5
K6
K7K8 K9 K10 K11 K12 K13
K14K15
K16
L95L96
L97L98
L99 L1L2
L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 L11 L12 L13L14
L15
L16
L17
M95 M96M97
M98 M99 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5M6
M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12
M13
M14 M15 M16
M17
36°48'0"E
36°48'0"E
36°36'0"E
36°36'0"E
36°24'0"E
36°24'0"E
36°12'0"E
36°12'0"E
36°0'0"E
36°0'0"E
35°48'0"E
35°48'0"E
35°36'0"E
35°36'0"E
35°24'0"E
35°24'0"E
35°12'0"E
35°12'0"E
35°0'0"E
35°0'0"E
34°48'0"E
34°48'0"E
34°36'0"E
34°36'0"E
34°24'0"E
34°24'0"E
34°12'0"E
34°12'0"E
34°0'0"E
34°0'0"E
33°48'0"E
33°48'0"E
33°36'0"E
33°36'0"E
33°24'0"E
33°24'0"E
33°12'0"E
33°12'0"E
33°0'0"E
33°0'0"E
32°48'0"E
32°48'0"E
32°36'0"E
32°36'0"E
32°24'0"E
32°24'0"E
37°0'0"E
18°0
'0"S
18°1
2'0"
S
18°1
2'0"
S
18°2
4'0"
S
18°2
4'0"
S
18°3
6'0"
S
18°3
6'0"
S
18°4
8'0"
S
18°4
8'0"
S
19°0
'0"S
19°0
'0"S
19°1
2'0"
S
19°1
2'0"
S
19°2
4'0"
S
19°2
4'0"
S
19°3
6'0"
S
19°3
6'0"
S
19°4
8'0"
S
19°4
8'0"
S
20°0
'0"S
20°0
'0"S
20°1
2'0"
S
20°1
2'0"
S
20°2
4'0"
S
20°2
4'0"
S
20°3
6'0"
S
20°3
6'0"
S
20°4
8'0"
S
Grid Severity scaleCriticalSevereSeriousOf concernNo / Minor
Estimated Population
More than 5,000
1,001 to 5,000
101 to 1,000Less than 100None
Survey GridsNot Tasked YetCompleted, IFRC / UNDAC
Road Status: 28thRoad: OpenRoad: Restricted accessRoad: ImpassableRailway: Open
RoadsPrimary roadSecondary roadTertiary road
Cyclone IdaiCyclone path
Flood extent (26th March)
Rivers
Water bodies
50
km
´
Mozambique: Cyclone Idai - results and analysis of aerial survey as of 29th March 2019
Base data sources: GADM,OpenStreetMap, WFP, UNOSAT, GDACSMap created by MapAction (29/03/2019)
Aerial survey conducted by: INGC,IFRC, UNDAC, MSF, DFID, Save thechildren, MapAction
Map shows data collected frommulti-agency aerial assessments to:a) Prioritise tasking for critical incidentsb) Estimate overall severityc) Estimate geographical scoped) Assess and geolocate points of interest
v11MA028
MOZAMBIQUE - TC IDAIAerial Assessment Report
Date created : 31 March 2019 Created by : IFRC and MapActionPage 5
ANALYSIS Comparison of severity category against estimated population Number of points of interest collected for each
point of interest
Chart shows the distribution of severity across estimated population of the point of interest.
Chart shows the distribution of points of interest across the di�erent categories, with the majority of points collected being houses / communities
MOZAMBIQUE - TC IDAIAerial Assessment Report
Date created : 31 March 2019 Created by : IFRC and MapActionPage 6
Graphic shows the prioritisation of aerial assessment according to �rst satellite detected �ood waters, storm track and then comprehen-siveness
TIMEFRAME
MOZAMBIQUE - TC IDAIAerial Assessment Report
Date created : 31 March 2019 Created by : IFRC and MapActionPage 7
METHODOLOGY LIMITATIONSThe novel use of a grid system and electronic data capture process enabled common analysis of a standardised dataset the size of 20km x 20 km grid squares was set as it was judged that it would be possible to provide an overview of each grid square from the centre point to inform further investigation. Given competing priorities for delivery of aid using air assets, a balance was struck between greater coverage and detailThe data collection form used KoBo (https://kobo.humanitarianre-sponse.info) form with 5 steps:
• Location (GPS coordinates and grid square)• Image• Point of interest• Severity• Critical incident reporting Aerial assessments were conducted by two person inter-agency teams over 5 day periodWhile the assessment teams predominantly used Squirrel helicopters, a Bell 412EP helicopter and fixed wing planes were also used to survey lower risk areas • Pilots navigated to the centre of the grid square and then assessment of the grid square area for further detailed investigation was made• Enumerators kept in contact during the aerial data collection process. After each grid square a check-in was used to calibrate the severity scoring. During the analysis process, IFRC and MapAction checked the calibration scores against the aggregated scores for each point of inter-est within grid squares.• The ACAPs severity ranking was used. While dependent on subjective assessments this was appropriate for the context and situation. • Purposive sampling approach – main purpose is to get a quick over-view.• Analysis and data processing was conducted in R using the sf package and the tidyverse. This allowed for multiple updates per day to be processed in an expedient timeframe. Map products were created in ArcGIS.
• Aerial survey is deemed inappropriate for crop damage assessments. Recommendations have been made to the Food Security cluster to complete this complementary survey as a matter of priority
• While the grid squares give an impression of 100% coverage of the area surveyed, the points of interest were captured as representative and not comprehensive. Any aggregation of the data would need to bear this in mind.
• Humanitarian experts from INGC, IFRC, UNDAC, MapAction, IHP and MSF contributed to the data, however there was no prior training provid-ed, meaning that results might not be calibrated between the enumera-tors. There will inevitably be an impact from human bias and variation in subjective severity scoring
• The KoBo form was produced rapidly and so therefore, while appropri-ate for the context, it could be optimised for more consistent data capture
• ¾ of data was collected over the first three days of the assessment giving a picture of damage and needs which will change over the coming days as floodwaters recede, populations move and gather in new accommodation centres and secondary impacts emerge, including in health. Even over the 5 day assessment period observed conditions may have change; this was mitigated by publishing interim results twice daily
• There are always limitations on detailed assessments when conducting this aerially. However 70% of observations were from less than 500 metres altitude as Squirrel helicopters were used for the majority of the recces.
MOZAMBIQUE - TC IDAIAerial Assessment Report
Date created : 31 March 2019 Created by : IFRC and MapActionPage 8
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS• Assessments completed by representatives from IFRC, UNDAC/OCHA, MapAction, MSF, DFID, International Humanitarian Partnership (IHP)
• Data collection process and analysis by IFRC Assessment Cell (Richard Devill, Ana-Maria Escobar and Luke Caley)
• Air support was provided by AirBus, Save the Children, IHP, Mission Aviation Fellowship, Mercy Air
• Particular thanks to Sebastian Rhodes Stampa (UN Deputy Humanitari-an Coordinator) for inspiration, Adrien Nance (Wings like Eagles) for air ops support
• Report authors: Luke Caley (IM analyst, IFRC) and Christopher Jarvis (Data scientist and volunteer, MapAction, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)