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Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development 2018 Economic State of the B.C. Forest Sector September 2019 Prepared by Alex Barnes Economic Services Branch 1

2018 Economic State of the B.C. Forest Sector · 2019. 9. 24. · Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development 6 Overview Indicator 1 – B.C. forest

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  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    2018 Economic State of the B.C. Forest Sector

    September 2019Prepared by Alex Barnes

    Economic Services Branch

    1

    https://dir.gov.bc.ca/gtds.cgi?esearch=&updateRequest=&view=detailed&sortBy=name&for=people&attribute=display+name&matchMethod=is&searchString=Alexander+Barnes&objectId=135530

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    Outline

    Overview

    Products

    Markets

    Sector Indicators

    Conclusions and Outlook

    Appendix (additional slides for all topics)2

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    Weekly Prices: Tracks weekly prices relevant to the B.C. forest sector.

    Monthly Exports: Export values by major market and product groups, including some quantity information.

    Annual Mill Report and Quarterly Mills Status Reports: Summary outlining B.C’.s harvest and timber processing activity during the year and of quarterly openings, closings, and investment.

    Log Exports: Summary of permit information (Permit Report on right side).

    Economic State of the BC Forest Sector: Year in review for the B.C. forest sector. 3

    Ministry Economic Reports

    http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/forest-industry-economics/weekly-priceshttp://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/forest-industry-economicshttp://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/forest-industry-economics/fibre-mill-informationhttp://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/log-exportshttp://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/forest-industry-economics

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    Includes forest management, harvesting, reforestation, wood product manufacturing, and pulp and paper product manufacturing.

    Plays a key role in the provincial economy with a significant presence in the Lower Mainland, and as an essential contributor to communities outside the Lower Mainland.

    Is export-oriented, depending heavily on global markets and exchange rates, foreign competition, and trade policy.

    Is cyclical, affected by the global forest commodity markets and general performance of the world economy.

    4

    Overview of B.C. Forest Sector

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    In sales terms, 2018 was an improvement over 2017, with wood products (+3.3%) and paper products (+20%) both doing well.

    B.C.’s forest sector export value increased in 2018 (+5.2%). Export growth was primarily from pulp products (+22%).

    Exports to the U.S. declined slightly (-2.4%) due to a weak Q1 and Q4 compared to 2017. China1 continued as the second largest export market for B.C.’s forest sector. Exports to

    China increased 7.6% thanks to strong pulp exports. Prices for many products climbed to near or surpassed historic highs in the first half of 2018,

    but then began steep declines in the second half of the year. Employment increased by 1% (+485) in 2018 according to the System of National

    Accounts (SNA)2.

    In 2018 2,117 fires consumed 1.35 million hectares of land, which surpassed the previous record of over 1.22 million hectares burned in 2017. The cost of fire suppression was estimated at $615 million in 2018.

    1. All references to China in this report include Hong Kong.2. According to the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours employment increased (+450), and the Labour Force Survey showed a

    decrease (-6,600). See Appendix starting on slide 52 for more information.Note: Numbers may not add properly to totals, or always be the exact same on each slide due to rounding.

    5

    Overview of 2018

    https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/wildfire-status/about-bcws/wildfire-statistics/wildfire-averages

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    6

    Overview Indicator 1 – B.C. forest sector manufacturing sales in 2018 were up 8.1% from 2017 and exports, excluding logs, were up 6.0% from 2017. This made 2018 the first year since the 2009 recession to surpass sales from the height of the housing boom (2004).

    The gap between manufacturing sales and exports increased again suggesting growth of the domestic market, including remanufacturing. This possibility is supported by some remanufacturing industries having higher employment from 2017 to 2018, according to the System of National Accounts.

    Data source: Statistics Canada; Table 16-10-0048-01, and Canadian International Merchandise Trade Database (CIMTD) or via BC Stats. Note historic data is subject to revisions.

    $19.4$17.1 $16.8 $16.3

    $18.2 $17.3$16.3

    $13.9$12.2

    $9.2$10.6 $11.1 $11.0

    $12.3$13.9 $14.3

    $15.2$17.0

    $18.4

    $16.3$14.6 $13.8

    $12.5$14.7

    $13.6 $13.1$11.9

    $9.8$7.4

    $8.8 $9.4 $9.6$10.9 $11.6

    $12.1 $12.9$13.4 $14.2

    $0

    $5

    $10

    $15

    $20

    $25

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    billi

    on C

    A$

    B.C. Manufactured Forest Product Sales and Forest Exports

    Forest Sector Manufacturing Manufactured Forest Exports (excludes logs)

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1610004801http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/datahttp://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspx

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    7

    Overview Indicator 2 – B.C. forest sector direct employment was 54,100 in 2018, up 0.9% from 2017. The increase was driven by Forestry and Logging with Support Activities (4.6%). Pulp and Paper employment was down (-1.9%) and so was Wood Products (-1.2%).

    The data released in 2018 had a downward revision of forest sector employment in previous years (-3,610 in 2017). It primarily impacted Wood Product employment.

    We report this series since it is part of the National Accounts and is therefore used in our analysis, but the Labour Force Survey (LFS) is often quoted in the media and used by other organizations. For further discussion of employment estimates please see slide 52 in the appendix.

    Data source: Statistics Canada System of National Accounts (SNA): Table 36-10-0489-01.

    50.9 52.8 52.3 52.4 54.1 53.8 52.9 53.0 53.6 54.1

    17.4 18.5 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.6 19.5 19.8 20.321.2

    23.8 25.2 24.5 25.6 26.4 26.4 26.1 26.1 26.3 25.9

    9.7 9.1 8.9 7.9 8.7 7.8 7.4 7.1 7.1 6.90

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    thou

    sand

    s of p

    erso

    ns

    B.C. Forest Sector Direct Employment

    B.C. Forestry Employment Forestry and Logging with Support Activities

    Wood Product Manufacturing Pulp and Paper Manufacturing

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610048901

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    Wood Products, especially Lumber: In 2018, B.C. produced 29.2 million m3 of lumber, or 45% of Canada’s total softwood lumber production. B.C. Wood Product sales were CA$12.6 billion in 2018. Sawmill* sales were CA$6.8 billion, or 54% of total Wood Product Manufacturing sales in B.C.

    Pulp and Paper Products, especially Market Pulp: B.C. Paper Manufacturing sales were CA$5.4 billion in 2018. Pulp mills** had sales of CA$3.6 billion, or 61% of total Paper Manufacturing sales in B.C.

    Logs: In 2018, 67.4 million m3 of logs were harvested. Exports of 5.1 million m3 (7.6% of harvest), mostly from coastal areas, were worth CA$740 million.

    Wood Products-Pellets: B.C. exported 2.27 million tonnes of wood pellets worth CA$408 million. The UK was the primary destination by weight (66%), followed by Japan (27%) and other countries (7%).

    *Excludes shake and shingle mill sales. Sawmills are a subcategory of Wood Product Manufacturing.**Pulp is a subcategory of the Paper Manufacturing code in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). 8

    Products Overview

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    The non-lumber industries include shingles and shakes, wood preservation, veneer, plywood and engineered wood products, millwork, container and pallet manufacturing, and other activities (encompassing products from seats and bowls to tool handles and chopsticks).

    The non-lumber sector is a major contributor, accounting for 46% of Wood Product manufacturing sales and more than 47% of employment1 in 2018, so by these measures it is nearly the same size as the lumber sector. Comparing export and manufacturing sales suggests the majority of non-lumber goods are consumed domestically, whereas the majority (82% in 2018) of lumber is exported.

    Growth Industry: In terms of manufacturing sales, the non-lumber sector has been growing steadily since the recession, including in 2018 when the lumber sector had lower sales. Expansion of Other Wood Product Manufacturing2 is supported by employment growth post 2014 in the SNA data. The Survey of Employee Payrolls and Hours shows growth in both Other Wood Product Manufacturing and in Veneer, Plywood and Engineered Wood products.

    1. Based on System of National Accounts (Table 36-10-0489-01). “More than 47%” is used since shingles and shakes and wood preservation are combined with Sawmilling under Sawmills and Wood Preservation.

    2. Includes millwork, container and pallets, and other activities. 9

    Solid Wood Products - Non-Lumber

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610048901

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    10Products – Wood Products – Wood Product Manufacturing sales totaled CA$12.6 billion in 2018. Sawmill sales accounted for 54% of Wood Product Manufacturing sales. From 2017 to 2018, Sawmill sales declined -7.5%, and the three remaining industry groupings increased a combined 20%.

    Data source: Statistics Canada; Table 16-10-0048-01. Sawmill sales are primarily lumber, and include chip and sawdust sales. Other wood products include wood pellets, and most other products of wood such as cabinets, bowls, tool handles, fencing, etc.

    $2.5 $3.2$3.6 $3.8

    $5.0 $5.8$5.8 $6.5 $7.3 $6.8

    $0.4$0.4 $0.4

    $0.5$0.6

    $0.6 $0.6$0.7

    $0.8 $1.1

    $1.0$1.0 $1.0

    $1.1$1.4

    $1.5 $1.7$1.8

    $2.2 $2.6

    $1.0$1.0 $1.0

    $1.1

    $1.2$1.4 $1.5

    $1.8$1.9 $2.151%

    57%60% 59% 61%

    62% 60% 60% 60% 54%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    $0

    $2

    $4

    $6

    $8

    $10

    $12

    $14

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Saw

    mill

    % S

    hare

    of W

    ood

    Prod

    uct M

    anuf

    actu

    ring

    Sale

    s

    billi

    on C

    A$

    B.C. Wood Product Manufacturing Sales

    Sawmills Shake, Shingle and Wood PreservationVeneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Products Other Wood ProductsSawmill % Share of Wood Product Manufacturing

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1610004801

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    11

    Products – Softwood Lumber – Softwood lumber production volume declined 3.7% in 2018. The Coast accounted for 11% of B.C. production. Total production has declined for two years now.

    In early 2019, a new series was released for lumber production due to significant changes in thesurvey methodology. Production was then re-estimated for 2014 to 2018 resulting in slightly higherproduction. In this chart, the production for 2009 to 2013 is still from the older series.

    Data source: Statistics Canada; 2009-2013 from Table 16-10-0045-01 and 2014 onwards from Table 16-10-0017-01.

    2.4 2.9 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.3 3.1

    20.624.2 25.9

    25.2 26.5 26.0 26.9 27.7 27.1 26.1

    23.0

    27.129.1 29.2 30.0 29.6 30.6

    31.4 30.3 29.2

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    mill

    ion

    B.C. Softwood Lumber Production

    BC Coast BC InteriorIn all years the Interior includes production from Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut, though the volume is negligible

    Data Series Break

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1610004501https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1610001701

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    12

    Products – Softwood Lumber – In 2018, 76.6% of softwood lumber production volume was spruce, pine or fir (SPF), and 23.4% was from other species such as cedar, Douglas fir, and hemlock. For comparison, in terms of export volume SPF was 70% of the total, while other species made up 30%.

    Data source: Statistics Canada; Table 16-10-0017-01 and B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Based on volume in m3. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    B.C. Softwood Lumber Production and Export VolumeShare by Species, 2018

    Spruce-Pine-Fir

    76.6%

    Other Softwoods

    23.4%

    B.C. Softwood Lumber Production(29.2 million m3) Share by Species

    Spruce-Pine-Fir

    70%

    Western Red Cedar

    5%

    Douglas Fir10%

    Hem-Fir8%

    Other Species

    7%

    B.C. Softwood Lumber Export Volume(24.0 million m3) Share by Species

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1610001701http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    13

    Products – Pulp and Paper – Total Pulp and Paper Manufacturing sales in B.C. rose 20% in 2018 to CA$5.8 billion. The increase is primarily due to higher pulp prices. Pulp Mill sales increased 24% from 2017 to 2018, and accounted for 61.5% of total sales. Paper and Paperboard sales were up 17%, and Converted Paper was up 3.5%.

    Data source: Statistics Canada; Table 16-10-0048-01. Converted paper includes products created from purchased paper and paperboard.

    $1.9 $1.7 $1.8 $1.7 $1.5 $1.6 $1.7 $1.5 $1.5 $1.8

    $2.2 $2.9$2.9

    $2.5 $2.3 $2.7$2.6

    $2.4 $2.9$3.6

    $0.3$0.3 $0.3

    $0.3$0.3

    $0.3 $0.3$0.4

    $0.4

    $0.449.2%

    59.1% 58.2% 56.0% 56.2% 58.2% 56.5% 56.5%59.5% 61.5%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    $0

    $1

    $2

    $3

    $4

    $5

    $6

    $7

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Pulp

    Sha

    re o

    f Pap

    er M

    anuf

    actu

    ring

    billi

    on C

    A$

    B.C. Pulp and Paper Manufacturing Sales

    Paper and Paperboard Pulp Mills Converted Paper Pulp % Share of Paper Manufacturing

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1610004801

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    14Products – Logs – Total harvest volume (67.4 million m³) was up 4.6% from 2017. The Interior accounted for 73% of the harvest, and the Coast for 27%. The last few years of interior harvest are close topre-beetle harvest uplift, and pre-housing boom levels.

    Data source: B.C. Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development (FLNR) Harvest Billing System. All logs, special forest products, species and grades billed excluding waste, reject and Christmas trees, data run on May 1, 2019. Includes both Crown and private lands.

    37.746.8 50.2 49.7 50.8 47.1 50.9 47.9 47.8 49.5

    11.2

    16.519.4 18.4 20.3 19.3

    17.8 18.3 16.6 18.048.8

    63.369.6 68.1

    71.166.4 68.7 66.3 64.5

    67.4

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    mill

    ion

    B.C. Timber Harvest Volume

    Interior Coast

    https://a100.gov.bc.ca/pub/hbs/home.jsp

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    15Products – Logs – Hemlock and Douglas fir make up roughly 2/3 of the harvest on the Coast. In the Interior the lodgepole pine continued as the dominant species by a narrow margin. This is a significant change, as during the height of salvage response to the mountain pine beetle epidemic, lodgepole’s share was Around 60% of B.C. Interior harvest.

    Data source: B.C. Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development Harvest Billing System. All logs, special forest products, species and grades billed excluding waste, reject and Christmas trees, data run on May 1, 2019. Includes both Crown and Private lands.

    Lodgepole Pine

    30.1%

    Spruce30.1%

    Douglas Fir16.1%

    Balsam13.1%

    Other10.6%

    Species Mix for 2018 B.C. Interior Harvest

    (49.5 mil. m3)

    Hemlock35.2%

    Douglas Fir29.8%

    Red Cedar16.5%

    Balsam11.6%

    Other6.8%

    Species Mix for 2018 B.C. CoastHarvest

    (18.0 mil. m3)

    https://a100.gov.bc.ca/pub/hbs/home.jsp

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    The U.S., China, and Japan are the top three export markets for the B.C. forest sector.

    The U.S. is the largest market and has improved substantially since 2009. It still has significantly less share of B.C. forest exports compared to pre-2009. Value of exports to the U.S. declined in 2018 (-$164 million) due to lower lumber exports. Export value of Other Wood products actually increased.

    China has increased substantially as a market over the last decade and is now in a strong second place. China’s share was around 28% of B.C. forest product export value in 2018, increasing 13%, primarily due to higher pulp prices.

    Japan has decreased compared to the late 1990s, but 2018 was the highest value since 2006. In terms of value share (10%), Japan is in third. Value was up $200 million in 2018.

    Other export markets made up 17% of total forest sector exports in 2018, with notable destinations being Indonesia (2.5%), South Korea (2.3%), the U.K. (2.2%), Taiwan (1.5%), and India (1.5%).

    The domestic market is also important to the forest sector. The size of the market is suggested by the difference between manufacturing sales and exports on slide 6.

    16

    Markets Overview

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    Major Export Contributor: Forestry exports have made up 30-36% of B.C.’s commodity export value since the recession in 2009, and in 2018 was 32%. While service exports have been growing1, commodities still make up the bulk of exports, and thus makes the forest sector an important source of foreign currency.

    Global Market: The United States, China, and Japan made up 83% of B.C. forest product exports value, but B.C. exported forest products to another 115 countries in 2018. Being in so many markets, even to a limited degree, can strategically place B.C. wood products to capitalize on growth in those markets.

    1. Statistics Canada and B.C. Business Council (via Statistics Canada, page 6)

    17

    Contribution of Forestry Exports

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/181019/dq181019e-eng.htmhttps://bcbc.com/reports-and-research/a-closer-look-at-bcs-exports

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    18

    Markets – The U.S. was the #1 export market by value, and was increasing steadily until 2017. China became the #2 market in 2009 and has been a key driver of the forest sector’s recovery since then. Japan was #2 for many years, until 2009, and is now #3.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Historic data is subject to revisions

    $4.0 $4.1 $3.8 $4.3$5.0

    $5.5$6.1

    $7.1 $6.9 $6.8

    $1.3$2.2

    $3.3$3.1 $3.7

    $3.8 $3.7 $3.4 $3.9$4.1

    $1.5

    $2.5

    $7.6

    $9.1$10.0 $10.2

    $11.7$12.4 $12.8

    $13.7 $14.2$14.9

    $0

    $2

    $4

    $6

    $8

    $10

    $12

    $14

    $16

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    billi

    on C

    A$

    B.C. Forest Product Export Value by Market

    U.S. China + Hong Kong Japan Other Total

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    19

    Markets – U.S. – The U.S. was B.C.’s largest market for forest products in 2018, with exports totalling CA$6.8 billion. Lumber continues to account for the largest share of export value to the US. Other Wood Products (notably OSB, Veneer and Plywood (Douglas fir), Fabricated Structural Members, Shakes, and Shingles) accounted for CA$1.8 billion of B.C.’s exports to the U.S.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    $1.5 $1.8 $1.6 $2.0$2.6 $3.0 $3.3

    $4.3 $4.2 $3.9$0.5 $0.7 $0.6$0.5

    $0.4$0.4 $0.4

    $0.4 $0.3 $0.4

    $0.9 $0.8 $0.9$1.0

    $1.2$1.2

    $1.6$1.8 $1.8 $1.8

    $1.0 $0.8 $0.8$0.8

    $0.8$0.8

    $0.8

    $0.6 $0.6 $0.6

    52.8%

    45.1%

    38.3%42.8% 42.7% 44.7%

    48.0%52.1%

    48.9% 45.4%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    $0

    $2

    $4

    $6

    $8

    $10

    $12

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    billi

    on C

    A$

    B.C. Forest Product Export Value to the United States

    Logs Lumber Pulp Other Wood Products Other Paper Products % Share of B.C. Forest Product Exports

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    20

    Markets – China – B.C. forest product exports to China as a share of total B.C. forest exports increased to 28% of B.C.’s forest exports. The value in 2018 was CA$4.1 billion, an increase of 8% from 2017. Pulp is the dominant product exported to China (61%). Exports were dominated by lower valuelogs and lumber, and pulp, with little value from other wood and paper products.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    $0.4 $0.4 $0.3 $0.4 $0.5 $0.4$0.3$0.7

    $1.1 $1.1$1.4 $1.4 $1.1 $1.0 $1.1 $1.0$0.8

    $1.3

    $1.7 $1.6$1.7 $1.9 $2.1 $1.8

    $2.1 $2.516.5%

    24.1%

    32.6%30.6% 31.4%

    30.5%28.8%

    24.9%27.2% 27.8%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    $0.0

    $1.0

    $2.0

    $3.0

    $4.0

    $5.0

    $6.0

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    billi

    on C

    A$

    B.C. Forest Product Export Value to China

    Logs Lumber Pulp Other Wood Products Other Paper Products % Share of B.C. Forest Product Exports

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    21

    Markets – Japan – B.C.’s exports to Japan have decreased about 75% from peak years in the mid-1990s, but exports have been relatively steady in recent years. Exports were valued at CA$1.5 billion in 2018, an increase of 15% from 2017. Lumber had the highest share of value with 56% in 2018.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.2 $0.2 $0.1 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2

    $0.5$0.6 $0.7 $0.7

    $0.8 $0.8 $0.8 $0.7 $0.7$0.8

    $0.2

    $0.2 $0.2 $0.2

    $0.2$0.2

    $0.2 $0.2$0.3

    $0.3

    $0.1

    $0.1 $0.2 $0.1

    $0.1$0.1

    $0.1 $0.2$0.1

    $0.212.3% 12.4% 11.8%

    11.2% 11.5% 10.3%9.3% 9.0%

    9.2%

    10.1%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    $0.0

    $0.2

    $0.4

    $0.6

    $0.8

    $1.0

    $1.2

    $1.4

    $1.6

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    billi

    on C

    A$

    B.C. Forest Product Export Value to Japan

    Logs Lumber Pulp Other Wood Products Other Paper Products % Share of B.C. Forest Product Exports

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    22

    Markets – Softwood Lumber – Prior to the U.S. housing crash B.C.’s lumber export market was heavily reliant on the U.S. Now other destinations, primarily China, have reduced the share of the U.S.,though the U.S. still makes up the majority of B.C.’s lumber export value.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    $1.5 $1.8 $1.6 $2.0$2.6 $3.0

    $3.3$4.3 $4.2 $3.9$0.3

    $0.7 $1.1$1.1

    $1.4$1.4 $1.1

    $1.0 $1.1$1.0

    $0.5$0.6 $0.7

    $0.7

    $0.8$0.8 $0.8

    $0.7 $0.7 $0.8

    $0.3

    $0.4 $0.5$0.4

    $0.5$0.5 $0.6

    $0.6 $0.6 $0.7

    $2.7

    $3.6 $3.8$4.2

    $5.3$5.7 $5.8

    $6.7 $6.6 $6.4

    $0

    $1

    $2

    $3

    $4

    $5

    $6

    $7

    $8

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    billi

    on C

    A$

    B.C. Softwood Lumber Export Value by Market

    U.S. China Japan Other

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    23

    Markets – Softwood Lumber – Prior to the U.S. housing crash, B.C.’s lumber export market was heavily reliant on the U.S. Now other destinations, primarily China, have reduced the share of the U.S., though the volumes to China have been declining after 2013.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    11.9 12.3 11.212.5

    13.6 14.515.5

    17.916.1 15.5

    2.64.6

    7.3 7.5 8.0 7.6 6.7 6.0 5.5 5.0

    17.8

    20.822.8

    24.225.9 25.8 26.2

    27.725.3

    24.0

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    mill

    ion

    m3

    B.C. Softwood Lumber Export Volume by Market

    U.S. China Japan Other BC Total

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    24

    Markets – Pulp – China had a dominant 60% share of B.C. pulp export value in 2018, followed by the U.S. (10%), Japan (6%), and other destinations (24%).

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Note historic data is subject to revisions.

    $0.8$1.3

    $1.7 $1.6 $1.7 $1.9$2.1 $1.8 $2.1

    $2.5$0.5

    $0.7$0.6 $0.5 $0.4

    $0.4$0.4

    $0.4$0.3

    $0.4

    $0.2

    $0.2$0.2

    $0.2 $0.2$0.2

    $0.2$0.2

    $0.3

    $0.3

    $0.5

    $0.7$0.7

    $0.6 $0.6$0.6

    $0.6$0.7

    $0.7

    $1.0

    $2.1

    $2.9$3.2

    $2.9 $2.8$3.1 $3.3 $3.0

    $3.5

    $4.2

    $0

    $1

    $2

    $3

    $4

    $5

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    billi

    on C

    A$

    B.C. Pulp Export Value by Market

    China U.S. Japan Other

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    25

    Markets – Pulp – China had a dominant share of B.C. pulp export tonnage in 2018. Over the past decade exports to China have more than doubled.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    1.41.7

    2.2

    2.7 2.7 2.62.8

    2.6 2.7 2.4

    0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.91.0

    3.3

    3.84.1

    4.44.2 4.1 4.3 4.1

    4.34.1

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    4.0

    4.5

    5.0

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    mill

    ion

    tonn

    es

    B.C. Pulp Export Tonnage by Market

    China U.S. Japan Other BC Total

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    26

    Markets – Logs – The value of log exports decreased by 8.6% in 2018. China (53%) remained the largest destination. South Korea (10%) and the U.S. (6%) decreased. Japan (29% share) increased in 2018.We slightly altered the commodities included as log exports, which resulted in a small decreasein past export value, mostly to China.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Note historic data is subject to revisions.

    $38 $35 $36 $53 $54 $56 $65 $48 $44 $44 $38

    $121

    $313 $284 $431 $415 $335 $429

    $479 $394

    $121

    $134

    $109 $147

    $195 $194

    $140

    $191 $177

    $211

    $48

    $80

    $127 $89

    $114 $114

    $120

    $98 $105

    $75

    $249

    $373

    $588 $577

    $802 $784

    $665

    $771 $810

    $740

    $0

    $100

    $200

    $300

    $400

    $500

    $600

    $700

    $800

    $900

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    mill

    ion

    CA$

    B.C. Log Export Value by Market

    U.S. China Japan South Korea Other

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    27

    Markets – Logs – The volume of log exports decreased in 2018. Volume to China (59% share) and South Korea (9%) declined. The U.S. (6%) and Japan (25%) were relatively unchanged.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    0.4 1.2

    2.9 2.9 3.63.4

    2.9

    3.7 3.7

    3.0

    1.1 1.3 1.0 1.31.6 1.5

    1.11.4 1.3 1.3

    2.5

    3.7

    5.45.7

    6.76.3

    5.6

    6.36.0

    5.1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    mill

    ion

    m3

    B.C. Log Export Volume by Market

    U.S. China Japan South Korea Other BC Total

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    28

    Products – Exports – Pellets – Exports of Wood Waste and Scrap grew rapidly up to 2011, almost entirely due to growth in Pellet exports. Pellet export value grew another nearly $100 million from 2017 to 2018, due primarily to an increase in export tonnage (1.8 million tonnes to 2.3 million). Roughly two thirds goes to the U.K., 27% to Japan, and most the remainder to Belgium.

    The first year pellets were given their own product category in the export data was 2012.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    $141

    $195 $207

    $7 $5 $6 $9 $6 $4 $6

    $174$195 $203 $201

    $319 $311

    $408

    $0

    $50

    $100

    $150

    $200

    $250

    $300

    $350

    $400

    $450

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    mill

    ion

    CA$

    B.C. Export Value of Pellets and Wood Waste and Scrap

    Wood Waste and Scrap Pellets

    *Pellets were included in Wood Waste and Scrap until 2012. Now pellets are separate.

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    Prices: 2018 was a mixed year for forest products. The first half of the year had skyrocketing prices for lumber, wood panels, and pulp; pulp and lumber reached historic highs. The second half of the year had plummeting lumber and panel prices, and by the end of December average monthly W-SPF #2&Btr price had declined -47%, OSB -48%, and plywood -28%. These prices were well below where they started in 2018, and prices continued to decline until June 2019. Pulp prices also declined in 2019.

    U.S. Housing Market: U.S. housing starts were 1.25 million in 2018, the 8th year of gains since the 0.55 million low in 2009. The share of multi-family starts is high (30%), which reduces wood consumption compared to similar levels of starts in the past.

    Forest Sector Investment has been fairly strong since 2013 (above CA$500 million), and preliminary data for 2018 is at CA$858 million.

    Government Revenues: Direct forestry revenues to government increased 32% in fiscal year 2018/19 ($1,406 million) compared to 2017/18 ($1,065 million). This was the highest level since the 1990’s and reflects the strong market conditions experience in the first half of 2018.

    29

    Overview of Sector Indicators

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    30

    Prices and Costs – North American housing markets improved in 2018, but housing starts were still low compared to the early/mid 2000’s. Average SPF 2x4 lumber prices rose significantly in 2018, peaking in July and then declining steadily the second half of the year.The W-SPF #2&Btr price started 2018 at US$470/mbf, peaked at US$658/mbf in June, and ended the year at US$328/mbf.

    Data sources: Madison's Lumber Reporter (SPF), U.S. Census Bureau, YCharts and Statistics Canada.

    554

    587

    609

    781

    925

    1,00

    3

    1,11

    2

    1,17

    4

    1,20

    3

    1,25

    0

    149

    190

    194

    215

    188

    189

    196

    198

    220

    213

    430

    460

    465

    487

    550

    489

    504

    546

    545

    539

    $181 $255 $254

    $299 $358 $353 $281

    $308 $411

    $496

    $207$258 $251

    $299

    $369 $390 $359$408

    $533

    $662

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    $0

    $100

    $200

    $300

    $400

    $500

    $600

    $700

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Hous

    ing

    star

    ts, t

    hous

    ands

    Pric

    e in

    $ p

    er th

    ousa

    nd b

    d ft

    Average SPF 2x4 Lumber Prices and Housing Starts

    US Housing Starts Canada Housing Starts Japan Wood Housing StartsSPF 2x4 Lumber Prices (US$) SPF 2x4 Lumber Prices (CA$)

    http://www.madisonsreport.com/http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/index.htmlhttps://ycharts.com/indicators/japan_wooden_housing_startshttps://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410013501

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    31

    Prices and Costs – In 2017, B.C. Interior softwood lumber mills had variable costs slightly above the U.S. South. The U.S. South was the lowest cost producer.

    Data source: Costs are from Forest Economic Advisors (FEA), composite from Random Lengths, and SPF 2x4 from Madison’s Lumber Reporter.

    $0

    $100

    $200

    $300

    $400

    $500

    U.S. South B.C. Interior U.S. West Inland Ontario U.S. West Coast Quebec

    US$

    /000

    bd

    ft

    Softwood Lumber Mills' Variable Costs (2017)

    Net Delivered Wood* Labour Energy Miscellaneous* = Delivered Wood - Residual Income

    Average RL Lumber Composite Price: US$413/000 bd ft

    Average Western SPF 2x4 #2&Btr Price: US$411/000 bd ft

    https://www.getfea.com/http://www.randomlengths.com/http://www.madisonsreport.com/

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    32

    Prices and Costs – Pulp prices increased in 2018. Pulp output was unchanged. The latest production data available from the B.C. Mill Report is for 2017. Prices have been declining in 2019.

    Data source: Prices from Equity Research Associates (ERA). Pulp output from Major Primary Timber Processing Facilities report.

    $665

    $937 $955$813 $864

    $928$849 $803

    $898

    $1,184

    $759

    $945 $944$812

    $889$1,024 $1,083 $1,064

    $1,165

    $1,581

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    $0

    $200

    $400

    $600

    $800

    $1,000

    $1,200

    $1,400

    $1,600

    $1,800

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Pulp

    Out

    put,

    mill

    ion

    tonn

    es

    $/to

    nne

    Market Pulp Prices and Pulp Output

    B.C. Pulp Output NBSK Prices (delivered Europe, US$) NBSK Prices (delivered Europe, CA$)

    http://era-research.com/https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/forest-industry-economics/fibre-mill-information

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    33

    Data source: 2000-2006, OANDA. 2007-2018, Bank of Canada.

    Prices and Costs – This shows the percent change in CA$ exchange rates compared to 2000. Increases indicate appreciation of the CA$ and make Canadian exports less competitive. By the end of 2018 the CA$ appreciated against the US$, and depreciated against the Yen and Yuan.

    80.00

    90.00

    100.00

    110.00

    120.00

    130.00

    140.00

    150.00

    160.00

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Exch

    ange

    Rat

    e In

    dex

    (200

    0 =1

    00)

    Indexed Foreign Exchange Rates Relative to CA$

    US$/CA$ Yuan/CA$ Yen/CA$

    2000 Exchange Rates0.67 US$/CA$5.58 Yuan/CA$72.62 Yen/CA$

    2018 Exchange Rates0.77 US$/CA$

    5.10 Yuan/CA$85.18 Yen/CA$

    http://www.oanda.com/http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/exchange/

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    34

    Data source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

    Prices and Costs – The cost of short-term and long-term borrowing increased again in 2018. The spread between the one year and 20 year treasury bills was only 0.7 percentage points.

    6.1%

    3.5%

    2.0%

    1.2%

    1.9%

    3.6%

    4.9%4.5%

    1.8%

    0.5%0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%

    0.6%

    1.2%

    2.3%

    6.2%5.6% 5.4%

    5.0% 5.0%4.6%

    5.0% 4.9%4.4%

    4.1% 4.0%3.6%

    2.5%3.1% 3.1%

    2.6%2.2%

    2.7%3.0%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Yiel

    d in

    per

    cent

    U.S. Treasury Bill Yields

    1 Year Treasury 20 Year Treasury

    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    35

    Investment – B.C. forest sector investment (CA$1,559 million) increased at least $42 million in 2017. Expenditure includes investment in construction (e.g. buildings and land improvements) and in machinery and equipment. 2016 is the latest year for repair expenditure, and 2017 excludes repair expenditure in forestry and logging (suppressed due to data quality), so the total should be higher.

    Data source: Statistics Canada; Table 34-10-0035-01.

    $2,258

    $1,613 $1,632

    $1,029$1,241 $1,218

    $799

    $1,217

    $1,811 $1,890

    $1,517 $1,559

    $0

    $500

    $1,000

    $1,500

    $2,000

    $2,500

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019*

    mill

    ion

    CA$

    B.C. Forest Sector Capital and Repair Expenditures

    Capital Expenditure Repair Expenditure Total Forestry ExpenditureData quality grade is often "Use with caution".*Preliminary and intentions, subject to change.

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410003501

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    36Government Revenues – The current version of the Budget and Fiscal plan shows forest revenue of CA$1,406 million in 2018/19. Revenue is forecast to decline over the next few years until it’s similar to 2017/18.The softwood lumber border tax ended in 2016/17.

    Data source: B.C. Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development. Corporate and personal income taxes are not included in these figures. These numbers are consistent with the B.C. Ministry of Finance Budget and Fiscal Plan, Table A5, page 121. Forecasts are from the 2019/20 to 2021/22 Budget and Fiscal Plan dated February 19, 2019.

    $436 $482$562

    $719 $754$862 $912

    $1,065

    $1,406

    $1,155 $1,114 $1,063

    $0

    $200

    $400

    $600

    $800

    $1,000

    $1,200

    $1,400

    $1,600

    10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22

    mill

    ions

    CA$

    B.C. Government Forest Sector Revenue, by Fiscal Year

    Total Revenue Timber Sales* BCTS Softwood Lumber Border Tax Other Forestry Revenue**

    *Timber Sales excludes BCTS sales. **Includes Other CRF Revenue, Forest Recoveries, and Logging Tax. Dashed lines denote forecasts.

    https://www.bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2019/pdf/2019_budget_and_fiscal_plan.pdf

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    37

    Government Revenues – In 2018, Interior average stumpage increased CA$5.5/m3 (36%) and Coast average stumpage increased CA$6.0/m3 (44%).

    Data source: FLNR HBS. Data run on May 1, 2019. Includes BCTS. Excludes waste and reject.

    $5.5$4.6 $4.3 $4.2

    $6.1$8.2 $8.5

    $12.0$13.8

    $19.8

    $4.7 $3.7 $3.5

    $5.2

    $9.0

    $11.6 $11.7 $12.7

    $15.6

    $21.1

    $0

    $5

    $10

    $15

    $20

    $25

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Aver

    age

    Stum

    page

    (CA$

    /m3 )

    Average Stumpage Rates (CA$/m3)

    Coast Average Stumpage Interior Average Stumpage

    https://a100.gov.bc.ca/pub/hbs/

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    2018 looked like a great year as both manufacturing sales and exports increased, but this was due almost entirely to high pulp prices. Pulp was the only clear winner in 2018, though several products in the Other Wood category improved as well.

    Looking more closely at the lumber sector, the average lumber price was well above the 2017 price, yet sawmill sales, exports, and lumber production all declined in 2018. The decline in sales was likely due to horrendous transportation during the winter (the same time as the price run-up), followed by the price crash starting in late June.

    Chinese demand for logs, lumber, and especially pulp continued to be a key market for the B.C. forest sector. Pulp export value increased 22% while tonnage declined -6%.

    Other Wood Product manufacturing sales have been expanding the last several years, driven by veneer, panels and engineered wood products, millwork (doors, windows, etc.), shakes and shingles, and pallets. Non-lumber products accounted for 46% of Wood Product sales in 2018. These products help diversify the Forest Sector, but the Sector is still dominated by lumber and pulp.

    Compared to pre-recession, B.C.’s forest sector has better diversity in export destinations. China has a major share, and the U.S. and Japan continue as major markets. The B.C. forest sector is trying to further this diversification by promoting sales to India, and expanding into new products such as engineered lumber and wood pellets.

    38

    Conclusions

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    The B.C. Government announced the Coast Forest Sector Revitalization in January 2019. Its aim is to “create and support good jobs on the coast, increase the processing of B.C. logs within the province, and reduce residual waste fibre left in the woods by redirecting it to B.C.’s pulp and paper mills.” A similar review is underway for the Interior.

    Housing forecasts still show growth, and housing repairs and remodels is a growing source of demand for wood products.

    Foreign demand for wood pellets has jumped dramatically again. B.C. export tonnage increased roughly 27%. The U.K. is the number one destination, and Japan is also taking large quantities.

    Declining B.C. timber supply now appears at the point where poor commodity markets can still have high log costs due to log scarcity, and this is contributing to both temporary and permanent shift reductions and mill closures, especially in 2019.

    U.S. trade policy is adding to uncertainty. Continued tariffs on Canadian lumber products is the clearest example, but the escalating U.S. trade war with China is also a factor. The trade war makes Canadian products more attractive, but also seems to be disrupting the U.S. and China markets in negative ways (higher supply in the U.S., lower demand in China). 39

    Outlook

    https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/coast-forest-sector-revitalizationhttps://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2019PREM0033-000590

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    Weather events have impacted the sector dramatically, and may continue to do so. 2018 May to 2019 April was the wettest 12 month period on record in the U.S.,

    hampering building in many key housing markets. Late in 2017 a storm blew down a tremendous volume of trees across Central

    Europe which was followed by a beetle infestation. This volume is now causing a glut of available wood, appearing to support higher European lumber exports to the U.S.

    Wildfires in B.C. were unprecedented in 2017 and 2018. It is possible this will be a recurring problem in future summers.

    Research, development, and innovation continue to progress for innovative wood products, including advanced biomaterials and engineered wood products. Innovations and investments in high-value bioproducts, technologies, and markets will make the forest sector more competitive. Buildings using mass timber can now be up to 7-12 storeys. There are two mass timber manufacturing facilities in B.C.

    40

    Outlook - Continued

    https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2019PREM0024-000383

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    Research, development, and innovation - continued The Ministry has completed a proof of concept all-timber bridge using fibre

    reinforced Glulam on the McGillivray FSR leading to Sun Peaks. The Engineering Branch continues to focus on the development of technologies and methods for all-timber and hybrid bridges, which present significant opportunity’s for wood products in provincial infrastructure.

    The “Growing the forest bioeconomy: biomaterials for high-tech applications” symposium co-located with the 2019 BC Tech Summit in March brought experts and collaborators from across Canada and northern Europe to Vancouver.

    Biomaterials (lignin and cellulose based products) are being created for applications in areas such as thermoplastics, cement and concrete, advanced packaging, and 3D printing filaments. These high-value biomaterials have the potential to effectively utilize post-harvest residual fibres that are uncompetitive for other high-volume applications.

    41

    Outlook - Continued

    https://www.pulpandpapercanada.com/innovation/growing-the-forest-bioeconomy-biomaterials-for-high-tech-applications-1100001679

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    Appendix

    Overview

    Manufacturing sales, exports, GDP, Employment

    Products

    Markets

    Economic Multipliers

    Additional Sources

    42

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    43

    Overview Indicator 1a – B.C. forest sector manufacturing sales (CA$18.4 billion) increased 8% from 2017. Most of this increase was due to higher pulp prices The forest sector accounted for 33% of B.C. manufacturing sales.

    Data source: Statistics Canada; Table 16-10-0048-01.

    $4.8 $5.7 $6.1$6.5

    $8.1 $9.3$9.7 $10.8

    $12.2 $12.6$4.4

    $4.9 $5.1 $4.4$4.2

    $4.6 $4.6$4.3

    $4.8$5.8

    28.0%29.9% 29.3% 28.5%

    30.6% 31.7% 31.9%32.1% 33.1%

    33.2%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    $0

    $2

    $4

    $6

    $8

    $10

    $12

    $14

    $16

    $18

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Fore

    st S

    ecto

    r Sha

    re o

    f Tot

    al M

    anuf

    actu

    ring

    billi

    on C

    A$

    B.C. Forest Sector Manufacturing Sales

    Wood Product Manufacturing Paper Manufacturing Forest Sector Share of Total Manufacturing

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1610004801

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    44

    Overview Indicator 1b – B.C. forest product exports (CA$14.9 billion) increased 5.2% in 2018. The forest sector’s share of total B.C. export value declined slightly from 2017 to 2018.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Does not include products shipped to other regions of Canada. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Note historic data is subject to revisions.

    $4.1 $5.1$5.7 $6.2

    $7.7 $8.1 $8.4$9.8 $9.7 $9.6

    $3.5$4.0 $4.3

    $4.0$3.9 $4.3

    $4.4$3.9 $4.4 $5.3

    30.1% 31.9% 30.6%32.3%

    34.9% 34.5% 36.0% 35.7% 32.7% 32.0%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    $0

    $2

    $4

    $6

    $8

    $10

    $12

    $14

    $16

    $18

    $20

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Fore

    stry

    Sha

    re o

    f B.C

    . Com

    mod

    ity E

    xpor

    ts

    billi

    on C

    A$

    B.C. Forest Sector Exports

    Wood Products Pulp & Paper Products Forestry % of BC Commodity Exports

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    45

    Data source: Statistics Canada. Source prior to 2007: Table 36-10-0408-01. For 2007 onwards: Table 36-10-0402-01. Based on current dollar data with 2015 being the latest available data. Overview Indicator 2a – GDP in current dollars allows comparisons between sectors, industries (subsectors) and the provincial economy as a whole in a given year. It does not adjust for inflation. The decline in forestry’s share over time is largely due to GDP growth of the B.C. economy as a whole (notably the service industry and real estate). Since 2009 the share has been fairly stable.

    4.7%

    4.1%

    3.2%2.7%

    2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    Forest Sector's Share of B.C. GDP, in Current Dollars

    Forest Sector Forestry and Logging Support Activities for Forestry

    Wood Product Manufacturing Paper Manufacturing

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610040801https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610040201

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    46

    Overview Indicator 2b – GDP in current dollars allows comparisons between sectors, industries (subsectors) and other sectors, such as the Goods Manufacturing sector, in a given year. It does not adjust for inflation. Since 2008 the Forest Sector has made up roughly 12-13% of B.C.’sGoods Manufacturing GDP.

    Data source: Statistics Canada. Source prior to 2007: Table 36-10-0408-01. For 2007 onwards: Table 36-10-0402-01. Based on current dollar data with 2015 being the latest available data.

    17.0%15.3%

    11.6% 11.6%12.3%

    11.7%12.5% 12.9% 12.8%

    13.4%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    Forest Sector's Share of B.C. Goods Manufacturing GDP, in Current Dollars

    Forest Sector Forestry and Logging Support Activities for Forestry Wood Product Manufacturing Paper Manufacturing

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610040801https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610040201

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    47

    Data source: Statistics Canada; Table 36-10-0402-01.

    Overview Indicator 2c – Wood Product Manufacturing GDP was climbing steadily since the low of 2009, but has been relatively constant the past few years. Higher GDP for veneer, plywood and engineered wood product and other wood products has been helping offset lower sawmill and wood preservation GDP.

    Chained dollar GDP adjusts for changes in prices and quantities, and should not be compared across sectors, nor added across sectors. The measure changed from 2007$ to 2012$ this year.

    $2.04$2.28 $2.41

    $2.58$2.78 $2.81 $2.84

    $3.01 $2.99 $2.97

    $1.17$1.40 $1.49

    $1.55 $1.67 $1.61 $1.57 $1.63 $1.55 $1.48

    $0.42 $0.44 $0.46 $0.49 $0.52$0.61 $0.66 $0.66 $0.72

    $0.79$0.46 $0.44 $0.46 $0.54

    $0.60 $0.61 $0.66$0.78 $0.80 $0.82

    $0.0

    $0.5

    $1.0

    $1.5

    $2.0

    $2.5

    $3.0

    $3.5

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    billi

    on 2

    012$

    B.C. Wood Products Manufacturing GDP,in Chained Dollars

    Wood Product Manufacturing Sawmills and wood preservation

    Veneer, plywood and engineered wood product manufacturing Other wood product manufacturing

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610040201

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    48

    Overview Indicator 2d – This chart shows the GDP of the Paper Manufacturing industry has been relatively stable the last few years. Chained dollar GDP adjusts for changes in prices and quantities, and should not be compared across sectors, nor added across sectors. The measure changed from 2007$ to 2012$ this year.

    Data source: Statistics Canada; Table 36-10-0402-01. Paper Manufacturing includes the Pulp industry.

    $1.17$1.38 $1.43 $1.30 $1.21

    $1.40 $1.46 $1.40 $1.45 $1.48

    $0.0

    $0.5

    $1.0

    $1.5

    $2.0

    $2.5

    $3.0

    $3.5

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    billi

    on 2

    012$

    B.C. Paper Manufacturing GDP, in Chained Dollars

    Paper Manufacturing

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610040201

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    49

    Data source: Statistics Canada; Table 36-10-0402-01. Examples of Support Activities are cruising timber, hauling, pest control, firefighting, and reforestation.

    Overview Indicator 2e – GDP from Forestry and Logging and from from Support Activities increased this year. Chained dollar GDP adjusts for changes in prices and quantities, and should not be compared across sectors, nor added across sectors. The measure changed from 2007$ to 2012$ this year.

    $1.25$1.53

    $1.81 $1.86$2.01 $1.98 $1.97 $1.89 $1.82 $1.91

    $0.50 $0.50 $0.57 $0.56 $0.55 $0.58 $0.61$0.64 $0.64 $0.68

    $0.0

    $0.5

    $1.0

    $1.5

    $2.0

    $2.5

    $3.0

    $3.5

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    billi

    on 2

    012$

    B.C. Forestry and Logging and Support Activities GDP, in Chained Dollars

    Forestry and Logging Support Activities for Forestry

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610040201http://stds.statcan.gc.ca/naics-scian/2007/es-re-eng.asp?criteria=115310

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    50

    Investment – From 2016 to 2017 capital expenditure increased 31%, and 2018 preliminary results indicate a 13% increase from 2017 to 2018.

    Historic preliminary data has been included to demonstrate the difference when moving from preliminaries toactuals. Capital expenditure includes investment in construction (e.g. buildings and land improvements) and in

    machinery and equipment.

    Data source: Statistics Canada; Table 34-10-0035-01. *Preliminary and intentions, subject to change. Data quality grade is often "Use with caution".

    $67 $91 $101 $144$212 $198 $188 $220 $127 $232 $205 $226

    $204$32 $44

    $290

    $518 $580 $652

    $234 $389 $283$418 $342$172

    $181 $103

    $84

    $186 $171$161

    $124$153 $241

    $235$226

    $442

    $304$248

    $517

    $916 $949$1,001

    $577$668

    $756 $801$858

    $793

    $0

    $200

    $400

    $600

    $800

    $1,000

    $1,200

    Capi

    tal E

    xpen

    ditu

    re

    Capi

    tal E

    xpen

    ditu

    re

    Capi

    tal E

    xpen

    ditu

    re

    Capi

    tal E

    xpen

    ditu

    re

    Capi

    tal E

    xpen

    ditu

    re

    Capi

    tal E

    xpen

    ditu

    re

    His

    toric

    Pre

    limin

    ary

    Capi

    tal E

    xpen

    ditu

    re

    His

    toric

    Pre

    limin

    ary

    Capi

    tal E

    xpen

    ditu

    re

    His

    toric

    Pre

    limin

    ary

    Prel

    imin

    ary

    Inte

    ntio

    ns

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019*

    mill

    ion

    CA$

    B.C. Forest Sector Capital Expenditure

    Pulp and Paper

    Wood Products

    Forestry and Logging

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410003501

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    51

    Investment – 2017’s results indicate B.C. forest sector repair expenditures for Wood Products and Pulp and paper were relatively unchanged from 2016. Repair expenditure includes investment in construction (e.g. buildings and land improvements) and in machinery and equipment. 2016 is the latest year for repair expenditure, and 2017 excludes repair expenditure in forestry and logging (suppressed due to data quality).

    Data source: Statistics Canada; Table 34-10-0035-01.

    $636 $533 $478$338 $235

    $408

    $97$267 $279 $355

    $443 $445

    $577

    $417 $480

    $331$391

    $419

    $305$195

    $315$412

    $355 $357

    $112

    $113 $105

    $119 $174

    $87

    $148$238

    $302$174 $141

    $1,324

    $1,063 $1,063

    $788 $799

    $914

    $551

    $700

    $895 $941 $940

    $802

    $0

    $200

    $400

    $600

    $800

    $1,000

    $1,200

    $1,400

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

    mill

    ion

    CA$

    B.C. Forest Sector Repair Expenditure

    Wood Products Pulp and Paper Forestry and LoggingData quality grade is often "Use with caution".

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410003501

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    System of National Accounts (SNA): Estimates based on multiple employment sources, including the LFS and SEPH. Part of the Canadian System of Macroeconomic Accounts (CSMA). Estimates are annual and released in the following year (2016 in 2017) making them the least timely source. “Because these accounts [CSMA] all use a common set of definitions, concepts and classifications, and are explicitly

    related to each other, they form an integrated system. As a result, the economic stories assembled from the CSMA statistics are coherent and credible. The latter reflects the enhanced quality inherent in an integrated system” (Source).

    This is the data source that forms the foundation of Input-Output Models, including BC’s model. Survey of Employment Payrolls and Hours (SEPH): A monthly survey. Not as timely as LFS, SEPH is delayed roughly

    two months in comparison. “The payroll survey (SEPH) provides a highly reliable gauge of monthly change in non-farm payroll employment”. “This

    survey does not have sampling error since it includes all payroll employees” (Source). Excludes self-employed and agriculture. Potentially a major setback for forestry and logging estimates, but probably

    less of an issue for most forest product manufacturing. SEPH is usually the lowest employment estimate. Labour Force Survey (LFS): A monthly survey of roughly 6,500 B.C. households out of nearly 2 million (0.3%). It is released

    near the start of each month. “The household survey (LFS) provides a broader picture of employment, including employment in agriculture and the

    number of self employed” (Source). It also measures unemployment. Since it is the most timely release on employment it tends to be most widely quoted. This timeliness also makes it a

    useful leading indicator. The LFS offers employment by Development Region and industry, but the more detailed the estimates become by

    Development Region and industry, the less reliable they become. LFS tends to be the upper estimate of the three employment estimates as it reflects all employment.

    *Source: Statistics Canada - Comparing SEPH and LFS, System of National Accounts. 52

    Multiple Employment Estimates

    http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=5103http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/data/statistics/economy/input-output-modelhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/72-203-g/2013001/part-partie8-eng.htmhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/72-203-g/2013001/part-partie8-eng.htmhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/72-203-g/2013001/part-partie8-eng.htmhttp://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=5103

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    53

    Overview Indicator 3a – The System of National Accounts (SNA) that B.C. forest sector employment increased to 54,085 in 2018. The employment in the System of National Accounts combines data from numerous sources. In the 2018 data release there was a downward revision to historic data (roughly -3,500 for 2017).

    Data source: Statistics Canada System of National Accounts (SNA): Table 14-10-0202-01.

    17.4 18.5 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.6 19.5 19.8 20.3 21.2

    23.8 25.2 24.5 25.6 26.426.4 26.1 26.1 26.3 25.9

    9.7 9.1 8.9 7.98.7 7.8 7.4 7.1 7.1 6.9

    2.30%2.34% 2.33%

    2.29%

    2.39%2.36%

    2.30%

    2.21%

    2.17% 2.16%

    2.00%

    2.05%

    2.10%

    2.15%

    2.20%

    2.25%

    2.30%

    2.35%

    2.40%

    2.45%

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Shar

    e of

    Tota

    l Em

    ploy

    men

    t

    thou

    sand

    s of p

    erso

    ns

    B.C. Forest Sector Direct Employment: System of National Accounts

    Forestry and Logging with Support Activities Wood Product Manufacturing

    Pulp and Paper Manufacturing As % of all industries

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410020201

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    54

    Overview Indicator 3b –According to the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) B.C. forest sector direct employment increased to 52,885 in 2018. The SEPH survey only covers employees on payrolls, and so omits self-employed people.

    Data source: Statistics Canada Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH): Table 36-10-0489-01.

    13.4 14.2 14.8 15.0 15.3 16.1 17.0 16.9 17.4 17.8

    24.8 24.4 24.9 24.7 25.426.3 26.4 26.9 27.1 27.9

    8.7 7.6 7.3 7.8 7.98.2 8.4 7.8 7.9 7.2

    16.0% 15.9% 15.5% 15.3% 15.3% 15.8%15.8%

    15.6% 15.1% 14.6%

    2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Fore

    st S

    ecto

    r Sha

    re

    thou

    sand

    s of p

    erso

    ns

    B.C. Forest Sector Direct Employment: Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours

    Forestry and Logging with Support Activities Wood Product Manufacturing

    Pulp and Paper Manufacturing As % of Goods-Producing Sector

    As % of all industries

    https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610048901

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    55

    Overview Indicator 3c – In contrast to both the SNA and SEPH employment estimates, which show that forest employment was similar in 2018 to 2017 levels, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) reports a significant decline in forest employment in 2018. Slide 52 discusses the differences between the SNA, SEPH, and LFS data collection methods and explains that SNA is considered the most robust estimate since it is based on multiple sources and incorporates cross sector checks.

    Data source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey (LFS) data via B.C. Stats (British Columbia Employment by Detailed NAICS Industry). The LFS samples 6,500 of B.C.’s roughly 2 million households (0.3% of households).

    13.8 16.3 14.6 16.2 17.6 19.2 19.4 19.4 18.6 17.8

    31.4 30.8 32.4 29.2 30.233.7 36.0 32.0 27.8 23.9

    10.3 9.4 8.7 11.4 10.512.2 10.1 8.5 10.7

    8.8

    12.6% 12.9% 12.9%12.9% 13.2%

    14.5% 14.3%12.7% 11.6%

    10.1%

    2.5%2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    0102030405060708090

    100

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Fore

    st S

    ecto

    r Sha

    re

    thou

    sand

    s of p

    erso

    ns

    B.C. Forest Sector Direct Employment: Labour Force Survey

    Forestry and Logging with Support Activities Wood Product Manufacturing

    Pulp and Paper Manufacturing As % of Goods-Producing Sector

    As % of all industries

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/BusinessIndustry/BusinessCountsEmploymentByIndustry.aspx

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    56

    Forestry Dependent Communities

    Overview Indicator 3d – This map shows forest industry contribution to income in census sub-divisions (CSD) throughout B.C. The darker the shading, the greater the forest sector’s contribution to employment income in a given CSD. There can be many smaller villages and towns within a CSD. Forestry’s highest contribution is in the OminecaNatural Resource Region in Northern B.C. (around Prince George). Some CSDs on the Coast and in the Southern Areas also have high forestry contribution.

    High contribution is defined as a forest sector share of regional income above 20%. Major population centres are only shown if the CSD they are in meets the 20% threshold. 18 CSD’s meet or exceed this threshold.

    Data source: Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resources Operations, and Rural Development. Compensation and Business Analysis Branch.Developed using Statistics Canada ,Census of Population 2016.Census subdivision (CSD) is the general term for municipalities (as determined by provincial/territorial legislation) or areas treated as municipal equivalents for statistical purposes.

    https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/ref/dict/geo012-eng.cfm

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    57Overview Indicator 3e – According to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) the coast is usually around 45% of B.C. forest sector direct employment while the interior is around 55%. 2018 LFS data indicates a further shift toward higher Interior employment relative to the Coast as compared to earlier years.

    Data source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey (LFS) data via B.C. Stats (Employment and Unemployment by Development Region). In this data North Coast is combined with Nechako, and in this chart North Coast-Nechako is included in the Interior.

    49% 46%49%

    44%47% 46%

    49%45% 45%

    42%

    51% 54% 51%56%

    53% 54% 51%55% 55%

    58%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Shar

    e of

    Em

    ploy

    men

    t

    Forest Sector Employment Share by Coast and Interior

    Coast Share Interior Share

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/BusinessIndustry/BusinessCountsEmploymentByIndustry.aspxhttp://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Geography/ReferenceMaps/DRs.aspx

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    58

    Data source: B.C. FLNR Harvest Billing System. All logs, special forest products, species and grades billed, excluding waste, reject and Christmas trees. Data extracted May 1, 2019.Volumes may not add to total harvest (slide 13) due to rounding.

    Products – Logs – Total harvest volume (67.4 million m³) was up 4.6% in 2018. The Interior accounted for 73% of the harvest. Most of the harvest from private and federal lands comes from the Coast. Recent interior harvest is near pre-beetle, pre-housing boom levels (49.2 million m3, ‘95-’99).

    36.5 45.549.3 48.7 49.6 45.4 48.9 46.0 45.6 45.6

    1.21.3 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.2 3.9

    0

    20

    40

    60

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    mill

    ion

    B.C. Interior Harvest Volume

    Crown Land Private/Federal Land Average Pre-Beetle Harvest ('95-'99)

    7.9 12.314.2 14.3 15.1 13.9 13.1 13.2 11.6 12.4

    3.34.2 5.2 4.1 5.1 5.4 4.7 5.1 5.0 5.5

    0

    10

    20

    30

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    mill

    ion

    B.C. Coast Harvest Volume

    Crown Land Private/Federal Land

    https://a100.gov.bc.ca/pub/hbs/

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    59

    Data source: B.C. Mill Report. 2017 is the latest year available. See page 9 of the Report for additional breakdown.

    Products – Log use by Mill Type – This table shows estimated log use by mill type based on results from the B.C. Mill Survey. The vast majority of logs initially wind up at lumber mills (72%), then roughly 56% of that fibre goes to pulp and pellet mills as chips and sawdust. Note, the B.C. Mill Report’s estimated log use was 2% higher than harvest, which can be explained by inventory changes between years or measurement error.

    http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/forest-industry-economics/fibre-mill-information

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    60

    Data source: B.C. Mill Report. 2017 is the latest year available. See page 9 of the Report for additional breakdown.

    Products – Log use by Mill Type – This is a summary of some of the data on the previous page.

    http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/forest-industry-economics/fibre-mill-information

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    61

    Products – Exports – Share of B.C. forest product export value by main product in 2018: Logs (5.0%), Softwood Lumber (43.2%), Other Wood Products (16.2%), Pulp (28.4%), and Other Paper Products (7.2%).

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Note historic data is subject to revisions.

    $2.7 $3.6 $3.8$4.2 $5.3

    $5.7 $5.8 $6.7 $6.6 $6.4$2.1

    $2.9 $3.2$2.9

    $2.8 $3.1$3.3

    $3.0 $3.5 $4.2

    $1.1

    $1.2$1.3 $1.4

    $1.6$1.6 $1.9

    $2.3 $2.3$2.4

    $1.4

    $1.1$1.1 $1.1

    $1.1$1.1

    $1.1$0.9 $1.0

    $1.1

    $0.2

    $0.4$0.6 $0.6

    $0.8$0.8 $0.7

    $0.8 $0.8$0.7

    $7.6

    $9.1$10.0 $10.2

    $11.7$12.4 $12.8

    $13.7 $14.2$14.9

    $0

    $2

    $4

    $6

    $8

    $10

    $12

    $14

    $16

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    billi

    on C

    A$

    B.C. Forest Product Export Value by Main Product

    Softwood Lumber Pulp Other Wood Products Other Paper Products Logs

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    62

    Products – Exports – Softwood Lumber – Spruce-Pine-Fir (SPF) lumber is by far the highest-volume lumber product exported from B.C., followed by Douglas Fir, hemlock-fir (balsam), and Western Red Cedar. Non-SPF species tend to have higher lumber prices than SPF, as seen by their export value share being higher than their volume share.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Note historic data is subject to revisions.

    Spruce-Pine-Fir

    70%

    Western Red Cedar

    5%

    Douglas Fir10%

    Hem-Fir8%

    Other7%

    B.C. Softwood Lumber Export Volume (24.0 million m3) Share by Species,

    2018

    Spruce-Pine-Fir

    61%Western Red

    Cedar13%

    Douglas Fir10%

    Hem-Fir9%

    Other7%

    B.C. Softwood Lumber Export Value (CA$6.4 billion) Share by Species,

    2018

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

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    Products – Exports – Logs – Log export volume declined by 15% in 2018. The vast majority of log exports came from the Coast, rather than the Interior.

    Data source: B.C. FLNRO Harvest Billing System, and B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    2.5

    3.7

    5.4 5.76.7 6.3

    5.66.3 6.0

    5.1

    5.0%5.9%

    7.8%8.4%

    9.4% 9.4%

    8.1%

    9.5% 9.3%

    7.6%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Log

    Expo

    rt S

    hare

    of T

    otal

    Har

    vest

    mill

    ion

    m3

    B.C. Log Export Volume and Share of Harvest

    Volume - m³ As % Share of Total Harvest

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

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    Products – Exports – Logs – Hemlock sawlogs accounted for around 46% of log exports in 2018, followed by Douglas Fir with 35%. Most of the hemlock went to China which is one of the few markets where the species is in strong demand.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Other includes pulp logs of all species, plus saw logs of other softwoods and hardwoods. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    Hemlock46.2%

    Douglas Fir35.0%

    Fir & Spruce11.0%

    Other7.8%

    B.C. Log Export Volume (5.1 million m3)

    Share by Species, 2018

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

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    Products – Imports – Value – Total value of imported forest products increased in 2018. Note the final destination of these imports may have been other provinces. Pulp and log imports are included in the total, but not given their own line due to the low overall value. Top imports of Other Wood products include furniture (especially chairs) andconiferous wood chips. Top imports of Other Paper products include corrugated packaging, paper towels and toilet paper.

    Data source: Special run of Statistics Canada data via BC Stats. Similar data can be viewed on NRCAN’s website. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    $634 $660 $670 $653 $705$776 $860 $815 $838

    $888$1,011 $1,095 $1,089

    $1,171 $1,230$1,341

    $1,479 $1,495 $1,464 $1,532

    $78 $106 $100 $103 $132 $146 $141 $149 $147 $151

    $1,742$1,881 $1,881 $1,945

    $2,080$2,274

    $2,489 $2,469 $2,463$2,594

    $0

    $500

    $1,000

    $1,500

    $2,000

    $2,500

    $3,000

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    mill

    ion

    CA$

    B.C. Forest Product Import Value by Product Category

    Paper Other Wood Softwood Lumber Total value of imports*Pulp and Log import value is minimal, so they don't have their own series, but are included in the total.

    https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/statsprofile/trade/bc

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

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    Products – Imports – Quantity – Imports of softwood lumber declined from 2017 to 2018. Comparing import volume to B.C. production it is only about 1.9%. Coniferous wood chip imports increasedin 2018. Note the final destination of these imports may have been somewhere else in Canada.

    Data source: Special run of Statistics Canada data via BC Stats. Similar data can be viewed on NRCAN’s website. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    0.47

    0.73

    0.53

    1.11

    0.81

    0.810.90

    0.74

    0.59 0.560.46

    0.560.63

    0.73

    0.900.95

    0.83

    0.65

    0.86

    1.04

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Woo

    d Ch

    ips,

    mill

    ion

    tonn

    es

    Soft

    woo

    d Lu

    mne

    r, m

    illio

    n m

    3

    Select B.C. Forest Product Imports by Quantity

    Softwood Lumber Coniferous Wood Chips

    https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/statsprofile/trade/bc

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

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    Products – Import vs. Export Value – Other wood and paper are the largest imports to B.C. Import value is about 17% the size of export value. Note the final destination of these imports may have been elsewhere in Canada, and that products imported to other provinces may have been used in B.C.

    Data source: Special run of Statistics Canada data via BC Stats. Similar data can be viewed on NRCAN’s website. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    Comparison of BC Forest Product Exports and Imports

    Log, $0.74Other Paper,

    $1.07

    Other Wood, $2.42

    Pulp, $4.23

    Softwood Lumber,

    $6.44

    2018 Forest Product Exports - CA$14.9 billion

    Logs, $0.02

    Paper, $0.89

    Other Wood, $1.53

    Pulp, $0.01

    Softwood Lumber,

    $0.15

    2018 Forest Product Imports - CA$2.6 billion

    https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/statsprofile/trade/bc

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

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    Markets – Total – Starting in 2005, the U.S. share of export value fell dramatically and China’s share grew rapidly. This trend ended in 2012 and their shares slowly diverged after that. In 2017 the U.S. share declined again.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    52.8%

    45.1%

    38.3%42.8% 42.7% 44.7%

    48.0%52.1%

    48.9%45.4%

    16.5%

    24.1%

    32.6% 30.6% 31.4% 30.5% 28.8%24.9%

    27.2% 27.8%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    B.C. Forest Product Export Value Share by Market

    U.S. China + Hong Kong Japan Other

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/data

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

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    Markets – U.S. – Softwood lumber consumption and housing starts in the U.S. have increased steadily from the low in 2009, but both are still far from the peak level in 2005. At the height of the housing boom in 2005 the US consumed 64 billion board feet.

    Data source: Western Wood Products Association and U.S. Census Bureau.

    31.5 32.8 34.036.5

    39.542.4 44.4

    47.4 47.6 48.3

    5.0 5.3 4.8

    5.3 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.6 6.9 6.6554 587 609

    781925 1,003

    1,112 1,174 1,2031,250

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    3,500

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Hous

    ing

    Star

    ts, t

    hous

    ands

    uni

    ts

    billi

    on b

    d ft

    U.S. Softwood Lumber Consumption vs. Housing Starts

    U.S. Lumber Consumption Lumber Imports from B.C. U.S. Housing Starts

    http://www.wwpa.org/https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/index.html

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

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    Prices and Costs – The share of multi-family starts increased slightly in 2018. Multi-family units use roughly 66-75% of the wood that a single family unit does.

    Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau.

    445 471 431 535 618 648 715 782 849 876

    109 116 178245

    307 356397

    392354 374

    20% 20%

    29%31%

    33%35% 36%

    33%

    29% 30%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Mul

    ti-Fa

    mily

    Sha

    re o

    f St

    arts

    U.S

    . Hou

    sing

    Sta

    rts,

    thou

    sand

    s

    U.S. Housing Starts: Single vs. Multi-Family Units

    U.S. Single-Family Starts U.S. Multi-Family Starts Multi-Family Share

    http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/index.html

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

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    Markets – U.S. – U.S. softwood lumber consumption relies primarily on U.S. domestic supply. The U.S. is still supplying a higher level of their consumption than during the housing boom, largely due to lower lumber demand resulting in less need for imports. Canada provided 28.3% of total U.S. consumption in 2018.

    Data source: Western Wood Products Association. The supply share from B.C. in 2016 was altered to match revised Statistics Canada data (may no longer match WWPA data).

    15.9% 16.0% 14.1% 14.6% 15.0% 14.6% 15.0% 16.0% 14.5% 13.7%

    10.2% 11.3% 11.7% 11.3% 12.5%13.8% 14.7% 15.7% 15.6% 14.6%

    72.1% 71.3% 72.9% 73.2% 71.4% 70.2% 68.8% 66.3% 67.4% 68.5%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Supplier Share of U.S. Softwood Lumber Consumption

    B.C. Rest of Canada Non-Canadian U.S.

    http://www.wwpa.org/

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

    72

    Products – Softwood Lumber – In 2018, Canada consumed approximately 23 million m3 of lumber, which included 4.8 million m3 of B.C. lumber. This volume was used domestically as lumber (such as in housing) or was turned into a value added wood product (siding, engineered wood products) which was used domestically or exported.

    The increase in consumption since 2014 indicates growing demand for lumber, and possibly the expansion ofof the value added sector.

    Data source: B.C. Stats extract from Statistics Canada data. Also available from Statistics Canada CIMTD and Table 16-10-0017-01. Historic data is subject to revisions.

    27.2

    23.7

    28.627.3 28.4 26.7 27.2 26.3

    24.0

    19.3

    22.8

    19.821.7 20.8

    19.0

    22.720.5

    22.2 22.6

    9.1

    6.3 7.4 7.07.8 7.7 8.2 8.4 7.0

    5.2 6.26.3

    5.0 4.1 3.8 4.4 3.74.9 4.8

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    m3

    mill

    ions

    Estimated Canadian Consumption of Lumber

    Total Consumption Consumption of B.C. Lumber

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/ExportsImports/Data.aspxhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/trade/datahttps://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1610001701

  • Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development

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    Data source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

    Markets – Prices and Costs – The exchange rate impacts product prices and mill revenue. From 2002 to 2011 the US$ depreciated about 33% relative to the Canadian dollar. From 20