2018 Comprehensive Plan & City Code Update Steering ...framework.tuscaloosa.com/.../09/TUS_SC3_Pres180926... · Steering Committee Meeting 3 ACP Team 1. From 2000-2016, the City grew

ACP TeamSteering Committee Meeting 3

2018 Comprehensive Plan & City Code UpdateSteering Committee Meeting 3September 26, 2018


WelcomeBrendan Moore, AICPExecutive DirectorOffice of Urban Development


WelcomeJamie Greene, AIA FAICPPrincipal, Planning NEXT


1. Welcome

2. Process Update

3. Conditions and Trends

4. Subcommittees

5. Forum on the Future

6. Adjourn

Agenda


Process Update


November 7, 2018

2-4pm

Council Chambers at City Hall (2201 University Boulevard)

Meeting Added


Schedule Overview and Milestones

Gathering input & Understanding conditions

Drafting recommendations

Refining plan

Testing & prioritization


1. Drafting recommendations (Jan-May)• Land Use (where and how we grow)

• Housing and Neighborhoods• Lakes

• Mobility / Transportation• Infrastructure• Community facilities and services• Other topics

2. Test/Prioritize draft recommendations with community: Open Houses (late summer)

3. Refine recommendations and prepare final plan

Phase 3: Plan Development


1. Analysis• Housing• Land Use• Transportation• Infrastructure• Economic Conditions

2. Stakeholder input3. Preparing for public engagement4. Weekly consultant-staff coordination

Consultant-staff work to-date


1. Distribute prepared printed material to your networks (flyers, posters, etc.)

2. Share emails, social media posts

3. Speak with people about Framework at community events

Follow-up from August 8Outreach targets & responsibilities



Conditions and Trends


1. From 2000-2016, the City grew by approx. 17,450 people (to 96,350).

2. UA has contributed to that growth. From 2000 to 2017, the University’s enrollment increased by 19,245 (to 38,563)• Not all students live in Tuscaloosa• Students likely undercounted by Census estimates• ~31,000 of UA students are between ages of 18-24 (80%)

• ~25,000 people in Tuscaloosa are between the ages of 18-24

3. Other growth factors: Tuscaloosa added 6,000 jobs since 2009

Demographic UpdateHow has UA’s growth contributed to Tuscaloosa’s overall population change?


ALABAMA

GRAND TOTALPRIVATE SCHOOLS TOTAL*

PUBLIC SCHOOLS

TOTAL

Hispanic

School Year

Alone, or Any Race

White BlackAmerican

Indian/Alaska Native

Asian/Pacific Islander

(Combined)

Repo

rted

Cou

nts o

f Hig

h Sc

hool

Gr

adua

tes

2000-01 41,316 4,234 37,082 238 24,073 11,986 437 3482001-02 40,127 4,240 35,887 245 23,462 11,374 459 3472002-03 41,412 4,671 36,741 313 24,127 11,500 417 3842003-04 41,729 5,265 36,464 325 23,949 11,483 339 368 Available Data for

Additional Race Categories

2004-05 42,644 5,191 37,453 404 24,391 11,803 404 4202005-06 42,908 4,990 37,918 478 24,680 12,026 343 3912006-07 43,488 4,576 38,912 580 25,004 12,546 342 411 Hawaiian/

Pacific Islander

Two or More Races2007-08 45,981 4,635 41,346 684 26,375 13,343 437 474

2008-09 47,359 5,277 42,082 799 26,380 13,884 461 5092009-10 48,178 5,012 43,166 976 26,569 14,558 407 6062010-11 50,756 4,721 46,035 1,213 27,958 15,836 492 536 7 47

Proj

ectio

ns o

f Hig

h Sc

hool

Gra

duat

es

2011-12 50,263 4,869 45,394 1,206 27,781 15,333 467 607 13 102

2012-13 49,128 4,895 44,233 1,338 27,052 14,758 488 597 21 142 2013-14 49,242 4,815 44,427 1,453 27,143 14,719 462 6432014-15 50,317 4,846 45,471 1,579 27,764 15,038 419 6732015-16 49,386 4,601 44,785 1,712 27,380 14,604 472 6562016-17 49,102 4,531 44,571 1,843 27,308 14,368 474 6492017-18 49,843 4,455 45,389 2,035 27,421 14,745 478 7672018-19 48,690 4,072 44,618 2,226 26,905 14,373 453 7312019-20 47,131 3,738 43,394 2,243 26,223 13,832 498 7102020-21 46,185 3,562 42,623 2,487 25,915 13,118 487 8082021-22 45,801 3,333 42,468 2,562 25,631 13,137 492 8752022-23 45,850 3,223 42,627 2,657 25,906 12,993 490 8582023-24 46,808 3,704 43,104 2,979 25,546 13,503 494 8432024-25 48,325 3,792 44,533 3,357 25,838 14,159 523 9462025-26 48,737 3,724 45,013 3,678 25,895 14,323 522 1,0032026-27 47,122 3,567 43,555 3,477 25,084 13,807 568 1,0582027-28 45,138 3,428 41,710 3,200 24,313 13,023 550 1,0262028-29 44,514 3,420 41,094 2,944 24,122 12,842 525 1,0602029-30 43,890 3,367 40,523 2,590 23,783 12,957 552 1,1262030-31 43,745 3,343 40,402 2,667 23,766 12,826 554 1,0232031-32 44,677 3,411 41,266 2,672 24,342 13,051 471 1,132

UA Student Population Doubled Since 2000, but trend not likely to continue

UA Enrollment• 2000 à 19,318• 2017 à 38,563

Higher EducationInstitution

2017 Fall Enrollment

Average Undergraduate

Enrollment 2006 – 2016

University of Alabama 38,563 24,523

Shelton State Community College 4,607 5,036

Stillman College 694 957 Source: Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama


Demographic UpdateHow has do students impact the City’s poverty rate?

• City overall poverty rate is 24%

• Above poverty statistic includes students living off campus (Students living on campus / in group quarters not counted)

• Of the City’s poverty population, 47% are 18-24 years old—college age.

• When adjusting for students (removing them from the population) the poverty rate is 19% - near State average

29%

47%

17%

7%

27% 28%

15%11%

UNDER 18 YEARS

18-24 25-64 65 YEARS AND OVER

POVERTY POPULATION BY AGE

Tuscaloosa City Alabama

2016 American Community Survey


1. Housing Inventory & Conditions

2. Policy Analysis (from existing City plans)

3. Needs Analysis

Housing Study Components


Study Areas

Planning Area

City Limits


5-year Affordable Housing Study

Analysis Input


Vast Majority of Residential Properties are Single-Family

Characteristics of Units


Majority of Housing Stock Built in Last Four Decades



Public Housing Clustered in Subareas



Areas with High Propensity for Change

Potential Housing/Neighborhood Issues


Delivery of Multifamily Peaked in 2015, All Other Housing Products Fluctuating

Housing Market Trends

Estimated Delivery of Units Annually by Type

Expected Delivery of MF Units 2018-2020based on current Land Development Permits

• 833 units• 2,007 bedrooms


Significant Uptick in Vacant Units Deemed “Seasonal, Recreational, and Occasional Purpose Housing”

Approximately 19%of housing units in Tuscaloosa are estimated to be used for

seasonal, recreational, or occasional purposes (includes off-campus student housing)



Sales Prices and Rents are on Par with Region

1. Median Sales Price • $165,000• Per SF = $113

2. Median Rental Price• $963

Slow Return to Pre-Recession Home Values



Share of Cost-Burdened Homeowners Align with State

Cost Burdened = a household paying more than 30% of

household income on housing expenses

• Tuscaloosa à 31%• Tuscaloosa County à28%• State of Alabama à 31%



Existing plans contain a strong focus on…

1. Protecting Neighborhood Character

2. Promoting Housing Diversity

3. Assisting Lower Income Households

4. Serving Neighborhoods

Existing Policy Highlights


“Need” components

Net In-migration

Natural Household Formation

Life stage change

Propensity to Rent or Buy

Income Capacity

Existing unitson Market

New Construction

Demand Drivers Housing Supply

Loss of units


312370 378

240 248 281 275

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Triplex or Quadplex MultiFamily Linear (Single Family Detached )

Housing Production

Single family trend line


301

4327

209

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Single Family Detached Townhome/Duplex Triplex or Quadplex Mulitfamily (5+ units)

2011 to 2017 Timeframe

Estimated average annual production• 580 units

• Excludes 2018 and the 2014 / 2015 MFH units

Source: NP calculation based on city housing permit data


Housing Sales Are Increasing

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Single Family Housing SalesMoving average

Source: NP analysis of MLS data


133.44 135.76

020406080

100120140160

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

FHFAHousing Price Index zip code 354

Base Year 2000 = 100

Same House Pricing Performance Over Time

• Index measures housing values looking at same house repeat sales or refinancings

• Based on FHFA housing index, housing prices at peak

Source: NP analysis of Federal Housing Finance Agency pricing data


740577

762

1340

1801

1440

916

623 580477 445

1078

537 468

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Less than$50,000

$50,000 to$74,999

$75,000 to$99,999

$100,000to

$124,999

$125,000to

$149,999

$150,000to

$174,999

$175,000to

$199,999

$200,000to

$224,999

$225,000to

$249,999

$250,000to

$274,999

$275,000to

$299,999

$300,000to

$399,999

$400,000to

$499,999

$500,000or greater

Housing Sales Activity by Price Point2008 - 2017

Housing Sales Price Points Over Last 10 Years



0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Less than$50,000

$50,000 to$74,999

$75,000 to$99,999

$100,000to

$124,999

$125,000to

$149,999

$150,000to

$174,999

$175,000to

$199,999

$200,000to

$224,999

$225,000to

$249,999

$250,000to

$274,999

$275,000to

$299,999

$300,000to

$399,999

$400,000to

$499,999

$500,000or greater

Distribution of Price PointsComparing Years 2008 to 2017 versus 2015 to 2017

% of sales

08 to 17 15 to 17

Price Point Comparisons: 10-year vs. 2-year



• Of 2,275 new mortgage applications, 35% receive some form of government support

• Home improvement loans have a high denial rate • 161 applied for in 2016, 142 denied

Housing Financing Activity

Tuscaloosa City Mortgage Financing Activity 2016

Number $000's Avg Size Number $000's Avg Size Number $000's Avg Size Number $000's Avg Size Number $000's Avg SizeLoans originated 787 133,612$ 169.8$ 1488 296,158$ 199.0$ 1038 176,448$ 170.0$ 161 14,403$ 89.5$ 532 94,939$ 178.5$ Apps denied 94 14,596$ 155.3$ 286 30,003$ 104.9$ 487 65,380$ 134.3$ 142 4,815$ 33.9$ 80 7,986$ 99.8$

Nonoccupant Loans From Columns A, B, C, and DHome Improvement LoansConventional RefinancingsFHA, FSA/RHS; VA

Source: NP analysis of Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council data


69

133

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Student Non Student

total vacant

Rental Market Snapshot• Very little rental housing available based on the market snapshot• Now is off cycle for student housing

47% of total rental

53% of total rentals


$1.64

$1.20 $1.21 $1.21 $1.34

$0.97 $0.82 $0.76

$0.00$0.20$0.40$0.60$0.80$1.00$1.20$1.40$1.60$1.80

Studio 1 BR 2 BR 3 BR

Average Rents per Square Foot

Student Non Student

Comparing Rents by # of Bedrooms in Units

• Student rents are higher per square foot (not adjusted for age or amenities) and differential grows as size grows

• “Student” defined as either marketed as student or within 1.5 miles of mid point of main UA campus

59% differential

22% differential

24% differential 48% differential


0% 1% 0% 1% 2%0%

2%

7% 6%

11%

3%0%

24%

28%25%

29%

14%

0%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

One - Person Two - Person Three - Person Four - Person Five - Person Six – Person

Rental Affordability for Low Income Households

Percent of affordable units available for very extremely low income families

Percent of affordable units available for very low income families

Percent of affordable units available for low income families

Rental Analysis• Affordable rental housing for low income families is limited based on

the rental market snapshot


Job TypeAverage Salary

Max Rent @30% Income

Assemblers and Fabricators $44,110 $1,103

Retail Salespersons $26,150 $654

Registered Nurses $57,350 $1,434

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants $35,130 $878

Waiters and Waitresses $19,820 $496

Janitors $26,210 $655

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers $40,350 $1,009

Nursing Assistants $23,920 $598

Elementary School Teachers $47,130 $1,178

Customer Service Representatives $29,110 $728

Retail Sales Managers $37,960 $949

Office Managers $51,270 $1,282

Cooks $21,450 $536

Industrial Machinery Mechanics $60,860 $1,522

Restaurant Managers $31,280 $782

High School Teachers $48,630 $1,216

Police Officers $52,870 $1,322

Accountants and Auditors $65,790 $1,645

UA Assistant Professor Salary $77,986 $1,950

UA Instructor Salary $55,243 $1,381

Rental Affordability by Occupation

College Debt:

Currently, just under 20% of the city’s population is 25 to 39 years old. Those recently out of college often make less money and are facing student loan debts that limit their available income for rent. The average debt at graduation for University of Alabama was $29,320. So, for example, if the recent grad could afford $1,254 a month in rent based on income level, that number would drop to $943 to take into account their student debt burden.


31

-94

708

130

-173

658707

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

<25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Drivers of Demand: Household Change by Age (2023)

Source: NP analysis of ESRI forecast data

• Household increase of almost 2,000 forecasted by 2023

Move up family housing ?

Aging in place / senior housing ?


Drivers of Demand: Household Change by Age and Income

Households <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+HH Income Base 31 -94 708 130 -173 658 707< $15,000 -167 -158 34 -95 -151 42 93$15,000-$24,999 -56 -106 -24 -58 -71 23 98$25,000-$34,999 1 -100 18 -48 -56 64 54$35,000-$49,999 57 -31 50 -14 -44 77 94$50,000-$74,999 98 84 167 48 24 126 140$75,000-$99,999 49 91 171 76 67 124 100$100,000-$149,999 52 96 186 144 71 120 77$150,000-$199,999 2 18 62 41 8 41 28$200,000+ -5 12 44 36 -21 41 23

Projected gain of 1300 households

Low Income Senior housing?

Source: NP analysis ESRI

Note: these estimates should be viewed as directional order of magnitude

• Creates pressure on different typologies


4,704

50078 23 158 268 113

-64

224 97 66 19 137

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

18 to 19years

20 to 24years

25 to 29years

30 to 34years

35 to 39years

40 to 44years

45 to 49years

50 to 54years

55 to 59years

60 to 64years

65 to 69years

70 to 74years

75 years +

Tuscaloosa Metro

Drivers of Demand: Net In-Migration• Population migration represents 6,300 new residents• Excluding 18 year olds, gain is only 1,600 people, 1100 if exclude 24 yr olds• City represents approximately 50% of metro

•

Source: NP analysis of ACS Migration surveys

** In bullet 2, are you missing a 0 or a comma?


1474

493

1327

976

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Ownership Rentals

5 year Housing Unit ForecastsBaseline Forecasts with Student Age Population

ESRI Demand Estimate CBER Demand Estimate

Demand based on Two Household Forecasts

1469

467

1221

323

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Ownership Rentals

5 year Housing Unit ForecastsForecast w/o Student Age Population

ESRI Demand Estimate CBER Demand Estimate

Source: NP forecast based on ESRI & CBER population estimates. CBER estimates adjusted to reflect city and estimated household size

• Student age population assumptions major driver of rental needs


Housing Price Points Required to Meet Household Increase

370

275

213243

291

200175

81 88

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Less than $375 $375 - $625 $625 - $875 $875-$1250 $1250-$1875 $1875-$2500 $2500-$3750 $3750-$5000 $5000+

Approximate Units Required by Monthly Price PointNo Students

ESRI BASE


1. In-migration creates need for about 800 housing units annually (ACS migration statistics)

2. Internal moves (renters and home owners) within Tuscaloosa equate to approximately 2200 annually (ACS migration statistics)

• Nationally 11% of non student renters move annually – if Tuscaloosa renters followed national pattern translates to around 1000 units

3. Natural household formation equates to another 1100 units of demand (ESRI household forecast - ACS migration statistics)

Ø 3,000 to 4,000 housing units required +

Students and seasonal / recreational / game day homes = ?

Components of Housing Demand


2200

650 580

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Internal Housing Turnover Out migration Average Annual Production

Estimated Annual Housing Supply3400 - 3500 units

Tuscaloosa capacity “aligned” with conceptual demand

Source: NP calculations


1. Need to address aging housing stock to address affordability needs.

2. Housing prices are increasing and above 2008 levels.

3. The type of new housing being delivered may not be aligning with market needs

4. Non-student rental market is tight and student housing distorts pricing.

5. Demographic shifts may put pressure on certain housing typologies.

6. Needs to be housing at a full range of price points

Key take-aways


Discussion


Subcommittees


Housing

1. Examine the results of the Housing Study

2. General topics: • Design • Density• Infrastructure

3. Two broad categories: • Workforce and Affordability• Student Rentals

Job Description: Housing


1. Where are target areas of the community that can support future workforce and affordable housing?

2. How can community investment support revitalization that and retain neighborhood fabric and families in existing community?

3. How should student housing regulations be revised to better achieve community goals?

4. What forms of housing (types and density) should be encouraged and where? How can we support development of these types?

Homework: HousingOutside of Steering Committee Meetings


Lakes: Tuscaloosa, Harris, and Nicol

1. Private property: • Lakefront development • Water quality, sedimentation and watershed dynamics• Infrastructure

2. City property (on acquisition line): Docks, piers, boat houses, etc.

3. Recreation:• Tourism• Activities• Nuisances

Job Description: Lakes


1. What are the opportunities and challenges associated with recreation and tourism on Lake Tuscaloosa, Lake Nicol, and Lake Harris?

2. Lake Tuscaloosa serves as both a water resource and provides residential opportunities for the City – how do we balance both needs?

3. How do we manage the needs for boats, docks, piers, etc. on Lake Tuscaloosa so that those developments do not impact the quality of the lake but also allow residents to fully enjoy their properties?

4. Developments adjacent to Lake Tuscaloosa traverse both the public and private realms – how do we simplify the process to eliminate confusion?

Homework: LakesOutside of Steering Committee Meetings


Forum on the Future


1. Introduce plan process to community

2. Share high level findings from research and input so far

3. Obtain input on where and how to grow (through individual and group activities)

Purpose and Outcomes


• Large public gathering—presentation followed by small group work

• Two critical questions will be explored: • “Where do we grow?” • “How do we grow?”

• November 27, 6-8pm• Tuscaloosa River Market

Initial Thoughts on Format


1. Table Leader

2. Registration

3. Greeter

Committee Role


Thank you

Documents

2018 Comprehensive Plan & City Code Update Steering ...framework.tuscaloosa.com/.../09/TUS_SC3_Pres180926... · Steering Committee Meeting 3 ACP Team 1. From 2000-2016, the City grew