-
2018 Citrus Export Production
Estimates and Forecast
Projections
An analysis for foreseeable conditions iro
LOGISTICS
Mitchell Brooke
Logistics Development Manager
Email: [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
-
Map of Fruit Production in SA
Source: CGA
Northern region
exports through
Durban Port
Northern & Western
Cape region exports
through Cape Town
Port
Eastern Cape region
exports through PE
& Coega Ports
The 3 key citrus production and export corridors must be
considered independently for logistics purposes
-
Factors Affecting Production
Typical Climatic –
1. Drought
2. High Heat
3. Hail
4. Tropical Storms
Drought
201520162017
Drought
Hail
High Wind & Heat = Fruit
Drop
Hail
2018
Drought
Hail
Typical Other –
1. Supply & Demand
2. Market Prices
3. Fruit Quality & Size
4. Phytosanitary
Major-Dry &
High
Heat
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
Cga Region 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Est. Ha
-
2018 Export Production Est. by Region
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
15 K
g C
art
ons E
qv.
Mill
ions
Total Southern Africa Export Production by Region
TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 2012 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG
EQV. 2013
TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 2014 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG
EQV. 2015
TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 2016 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG
EQV. 2017
TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 2018 Est. TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA
15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
-
2018 Export Production Est. by Region
102.8
57.8
27.5
17.5
111.6
66.6
27.8
17.2
115.1
63.0
31.7
20.4
117.7
65.6
32.8
19.3
109.2
56.3
32.6
20.4
122.6
72.5
29.6
20.5
131.5
74.8
34.6
22.2
163.8
88.2
46.6
28.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Grand Total Northern Region EC Region WC & NW Region
15 K
g C
art
ons E
qv.
Mill
ions
Total Southern Africa Export Production by Corridor
TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 2012 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG
EQV. 2013
TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 2014 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG
EQV. 2015
TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 2016 TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG
EQV. 2017
TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA 15KG EQV. 2018 Est. TOTAL SOUTHERN AFRICA
15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
Cga Region 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Est. Ha
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
15 K
g C
art
ons E
qv.
Mill
ions
Grapefruit Export Production by Region
GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 2012 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 2013
GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 2014 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 2015
GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 2016 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 2017
GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 2018 Est. GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5
Yrs
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
12.8
11.6
0.6 0.6
15.9
14.8
0.5 0.6
15.2
13.9
0.6 0.7
15.7
14.5
0.40.7
13.8
12.2
0.51.1
15.5
13.7
0.4
1.4
16.5
14.6
0.4
1.5
17.4
15.3
0.6
1.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Grand Total Northern Region EC Region WC & NW Region
15 K
g C
art
ons E
qv.
Mill
ions
Grapefruit Export Production by Corridor
GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 2012 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 2013
GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 2014 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 2015
GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 2016 GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 2017
GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. 2018 Est. GRAPEFRUIT 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5
Yrs
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
Cga Region 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Est. Ha
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
15 K
g C
art
ons E
qv.
Mill
ions
Lemon Export Production by Region
LEMONS 15KG EQV. 2012 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 2013 LEMONS 15KG EQV.
2014
LEMONS 15KG EQV. 2015 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 2016 LEMONS 15KG EQV.
2017
LEMONS 15KG EQV. 2018 Est. LEMONS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
10.5
2.8
6.3
1.4
10.6
3.5
5.7
1.5
13.2
4.4
7.1
1.7
15.0
4.5
8.7
1.9
15.0
5.0
8.1
1.9
19.0
7.3
9.6
2.1
20.6
8.5
9.8
2.3
31.0
12.1
15.3
3.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Grand Total Northern Region EC Region WC & NW Region
15 K
g C
art
ons E
qv.
Mill
ions
Lemon Export Production by Corridor
LEMONS 15KG EQV. 2012 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 2013 LEMONS 15KG EQV.
2014
LEMONS 15KG EQV. 2015 LEMONS 15KG EQV. 2016 LEMONS 15KG EQV.
2017
LEMONS 15KG EQV. 2018 Est. LEMONS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
Cga Region 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Est. Ha
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
15 K
g C
art
on E
qv.
Mill
ions
Navels Export Production by Region
NAVELS 15KG EQV. 2012 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 2013 NAVELS 15KG EQV.
2014
NAVELS 15KG EQV. 2015 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 2016 NAVELS 15KG EQV.
2017
NAVELS 15KG EQV. 2018 Est. NAVELS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
24.6
7.7
10.0
6.9
25.5
9.210.0
6.3
26.1
7.7
10.8
7.5
24.6
7.7
10.2
6.7
26.3
8.3
11.1
6.9
21.2
8.6
7.0
5.6
25.6
8.7
10.4
6.5
30.1
9.8
12.8
7.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Grand Total Northern Region EC Region WC & NW Region
15 K
g C
art
on E
qv.
Mill
ions
Navels Export Production by Corridor
NAVELS 15KG EQV. 2012 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 2013 NAVELS 15KG EQV.
2014
NAVELS 15KG EQV. 2015 NAVELS 15KG EQV. 2016 NAVELS 15KG EQV.
2017
NAVELS 15KG EQV. 2018 Est. NAVELS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
Cga Region 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Est. Ha
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
15 K
g C
art
ons E
qv.
Mill
ions
Soft Citrus Export Production by Region
SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 2012 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 2013
SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 2014 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 2015
SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 2016 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 2017
SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 2018 Est. SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to
5 Yrs
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2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
7.6
1.0
2.6
4.0
8.4
1.6
2.7
4.1
10.0
1.6
3.4
5.0
10.0
1.9
3.4
4.7
12.2
2.1
4.3
5.7
13.4
3.2
4.3
5.9
14.3
3.3
4.8
6.1
23.3
5.9
7.2
10.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
Grand Total Northern Region EC Region WC & NW Region
15 K
g C
art
ons E
qv.
Mill
ions
Soft Citrus Export Production by Corridor
SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 2012 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 2013
SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 2014 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 2015
SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 2016 SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 2017
SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. 2018 Est. SOFT CITRUS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to
5 Yrs
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
Cga Region 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Est. Ha
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
15 K
g C
art
ons E
qv.
Mill
ions
Valencia Export Production by Region
VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 2012 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 2013
VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 2014 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 2015
VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 2016 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 2017
VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 2018 Est. VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5
Yrs
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
47.3
34.5
8.1
4.6
51.2
37.6
8.9
4.8
50.7
35.5
9.7
5.5
52.5
37.0
10.1
5.4
41.9
28.6
8.5
4.8
53.4
39.6
8.3
5.4
54.5
39.6
9.1
5.8
61.8
44.9
10.7
6.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Grand Total Northern Region EC Region WC & NW Region
15 K
g C
art
on E
qv.
Mill
ions
Valencia Citrus Export Production by Corridor
VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 2012 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 2013
VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 2014 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 2015
VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 2016 VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 2017
VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. 2018 Est. VALENCIAS 15KG EQV. Est. 3 to 5
Yrs
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
15 K
g C
art
ons E
qv.
Mill
ions
Northern Regions Weekly Citrus Export Production
Total Production Grapefruit Lemons Navels Soft Citrus
Valencias
Citrus export
production
from the
northern region
peaks between
week 25 – 35.
Production
peaks heavily at
week 28 when
congestion
becomes an
issue.
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
15 K
g C
art
ons E
qv.
Mill
ions
EC Regions Weekly Citrus Export Production
Total Production Grapefruit Lemons Navels Soft Citrus
Valencias
Citrus export
production
from the EC
region peaks
between week
22 – 35.
Production
peaks heavily
at week 33.
Concern
regarding
capacity in EC
region.
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
15 K
g C
art
ons E
qv.
Mill
ions
NWC Regions Weekly Citrus Export Production
Total Production Grapefruit Lemons Navels Soft Citrus
Valencias
Citrus
export
production
from the
NWC region
peaks
between
week 20 –
30.
Production
peaks at
week 22/23.
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2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
Exit Port Commodity 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Est. 1
Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
Grapefruit 7 258 6 082 7 145 4 918 6 455 4 586 5 000 7 000
Lemons 74 305 66 555 81 668 99 527 94 328 112 295 116 000 160
000
Oranges 218 804 232 643 248 543 249 738 244 447 185 169 250 000
270 000
Soft Citrus 26 172 29 331 39 044 40 302 52 743 47 820 55 000 85
000
Total 326 539 335 993 377 142 394 485 397 973 349 870 426 000
522 000
Grapefruit 153 052 228 324 195 084 206 217 178 086 195 385 205
000 216 000
Lemons 36 042 43 949 54 775 55 582 62 409 92 530 105 000 140
000
Oranges 499 895 538 196 512 407 532 139 456 476 581 858 580 000
620 000
Soft Citrus 12 022 19 944 19 538 25 450 27 544 43 642 47 500 77
500
Total 701 010 832 304 783 660 819 388 724 516 913 415 937 500 1
053 500
Grapefruit 9 527 9 772 10 520 10 912 17 496 21 616 22 000 22
000
Lemons 19 696 22 733 24 674 28 438 26 256 28 975 30 000 45
000
Oranges 148 015 153 839 176 871 165 529 153 490 149 523 175 000
180 000
Soft Citrus 72 380 71 685 79 056 78 446 91 501 100 520 105 000
160 000
Total 249 619 260 959 295 467 283 324 288 743 300 634 332 000
407 000
Grapefruit 187 988 253 206 212 749 222 047 202 037 221 587 232
000 245 000
Lemons 130 379 133 378 161 318 183 547 182 993 233 800 251 000
345 000
Oranges 903 817 955 564 940 981 953 786 854 413 916 550 1 005
000 1 070 000
Soft Citrus 111 103 120 959 137 638 144 198 171 788 191 982 207
500 322 500
Total 1 333 287 1 469 313 1 459 630 1 503 578 1 411 232 1 563
919 1 695 500 1 982 500
Eastern Cape to PE &
Coega Ports
Southern Africa
(Incl. Swaziland &
Zimbabwe
Western/Northern
Cape to Cape Town
Port
Northern Region to
Durban Port (Incl.
Zimbabwe &
Swaziland)
Citrus Export Volume by Commodity by Load Port (Pallets)
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
Citrus Export Volume by Ship Mode by Load Port (Pallets)
Departure Port Vessel Type 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Est. 1 Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
Reefer
Containers296 487 313 348 350 306 366 623 374 104 343 260 421
000 517 000
Specialized
Reefer Vessel30 052 22 645 26 836 28 205 23 869 6 610 5 000 5
000
Total 326 539 335 993 377 142 394 828 397 973 349 870 426 000
522 000
Reefer
Containers548 729 677 148 616 478 691 135 617 179 795 800 837
500 973 500
Specialized
Reefer Vessel152 281 155 156 167 182 128 574 107 455 117 615 100
000 80 000
Total 701 010 832 304 783 660 819 709 724 634 913 415 937 500 1
053 500
Reefer
Containers195 818 209 066 249 693 236 958 251 468 255 966 292
000 372 000
Specialized
Reefer Vessel53 801 51 893 45 774 47 529 38 906 44 667 40 000 35
000
Total 249 619 260 959 295 467 284 487 290 374 300 634 332 000
407 000
Reefer
Containers1 048 623 1 209 743 1 219 838 1 301 096 1 242 751 1
395 026 1 550 500 1 862 500
Specialized
Reefer Vessel284 664 259 570 239 792 204 308 170 230 168 892 145
000 120 000
Total 1 333 287 1 469 313 1 459 630 1 505 404 1 412 981 1 563
918 1 695 500 1 982 500
Southern Africa
(Incl. Swaziland &
Zimbabwe
CAPE TOWN
DURBAN
PORT
ELIZABETH/COEGA
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500R
eefe
r C
on
tain
ers
Re
efe
r V
es
sel
To
tal
Reefe
r C
on
tain
ers
Re
efe
r V
es
sel
To
tal
Reefe
r C
on
tain
ers
Re
efe
r V
es
sel
To
tal
Reefe
r C
on
tain
ers
Re
efe
r V
es
sel
To
tal
PORT ELIZABETH/COEGA DURBAN CAPE TOWN Southern Africa
(Incl.Swaziland & Zimbabwe
Pa
llets
Th
ou
san
ds
Citrus Exports by Ship Mode by Load Port (Pallets)
2015 2016 2017 2018 Est. 1 Est. 3 to 5 Yrs
Reefer Container Demand
2015-2017 Ave = 18,000 FEU
2018 Est. = 21,000 FEU
3-5 Year Projection = 26,000 FEU
Reefer Container Demand
2015-2017 Ave = 35,000 FEU
2018 Est. = 42,000 FEU
3-5 Year Projection = 48,750 FEU
Reefer Container Demand
2015-2017 Ave = 12,400 FEU
2018 Est. = 14,600 FEU
3-5 Year Projection = 18,600 FEU
Total Reefer Container Demand
2015-2017 Ave = 65,400 FEU
2018 Est. = 77,600 FEU
3-5 Year Projection = 93,350 FEU
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
12,963
14,710
18,528
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Citrus Reefer Volume ex CTCT (FEU)
Cape Town 2015 Act Cape Town 2016 Act Cape Town 2017 Act Cape
Town 2018 Est.
Cape Town 2020/22 Est. Cape Town 2015 Act Acc. Cape Town 2016
Act Acc. Cape Town 2017 Act Acc.
Cape Town 2018 Est Acc. Cape Town 2020/22 Est Acc.
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
40,036
42,075
48,778
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Citrus Reefer Volume ex DCT (FEU)
Durban 2015 Act Durban 2016 Act Durban 2017 Act Durban 2018
Est.
Durban 2020/22 Est. Durban 2015 Act Acc. Durban 2016 Act Acc.
Durban 2017 Act Acc.
Durban 2018 Est Acc. Durban 2020/22 Est Acc.
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
18,707
21,070
26,127
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Citrus Reefers ex PECT/NCT (NCT 70% / PECT 30%)
PE/Ngqura 2015 Act PE/Ngqura 2016 Act PE/Ngqura 2017 Act
PE/Ngqura 2018 Est.
PE/Ngqura 2020/22 Est. PE/Ngqura 2015 Act Acc. PE/Ngqura 2016
Act Acc. PE/Ngqura 2017 Act Acc.
PE/Ngqura 2018 Est. Acc. PE/Ngqura 2020/22 Est. Acc.
-
2018 Citrus Export Production Estimates
70,237
77,855
93,433
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Citrus Reefers ex All Ports (FEU)
Total 2015 Act Total 2016 Act Total 2017 Act Total 2018 Est.
Total 2020/22 Est.
Total 2015 Act Acc. Total 2016 Act Acc. Total 2017 Act Acc.
Total 2018 Est Acc. Total 2020/22 Est Acc.
-
2018 Logistics Demands
• Transportation Supply & Demand (Northern Region)• NB!!!
Rail transportation from the northern region
• Cold Storage Capacity (Durban & PE)• Durban week 28-34 and
PE continuous
• > Cold Treatment Shipments – Genset units (Durban)
• Container Equipment (National)• Additional 7,500 FEU’s
required 2018 against 2017
• Port Container Terminal Infrastructure• NB!!! Pier 1 plug
points to >1,200 (SAECS & FAX)
• Port Container Terminal Performance• DCT vessel delays &
wind delays
• DCT & NCT < truck turnaround times
• DCT effective handling of citrus reefer trains (
-
Rail Transport Options 2018
1. Musina: Limpopo River & Zimbabwe
2. Tzaneen: Letsitele & Hoedspruit
3. Bela-Bela: Groblersdal & Marble Hall
4. City Deep: Ambient & Cold Storage Facilities
Rail transportation options now more important than ever
-
2018 Citrus Export Production
Estimates and Forecast
Projections
Thank you / Dankie
Mitchell Brooke
Logistics Development Manager
Email: [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
