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Opportunities for Building a More Resilient Durban Systems Analysis Process and Methodology Date: 29 December 2016

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Opportunities for Building a More Resilient Durban

Systems Analysis Process and Methodology

Date: 29 December 2016

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Contents1 Introduction...................................................................................................................................3

2 Step 1 | Collection of Local Information........................................................................................4

3 Step 2 | Identification of system challenges..................................................................................6

4 Step 3 | Identification of key levers of change............................................................................13

5 Reflections and lessons learned...................................................................................................20

Appendix.............................................................................................................................................23

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1 IntroductionThis report summarizes the research and analysis that Dalberg Global Development Advisors conducted as part of Durban’s participation in the 100 Resilient Cities (100RC) program. The city identified sixteen resilience issues that emerged from its extensive stakeholder engagement process, which took place between March and May 2015. These sixteen issues were consolidated into six resilience focus areas: Bold and Participatory Governance, Knowledge-centred City, Innovative Place-making, Sustainable and Ecological City, Catalytic and Transformative Economy, and Equitable and Inclusive Society. To advance a resilience strategy, the Durban CRO and Project Management team wished to undertake a systems-level analysis of these six resilience Focus Areas. The CRO team felt that, given the broad range of issues inherent in each of these resilience Focus Areas and their interconnectedness, a preliminary challenge was to determine what points for intervention would be the most strategic in catalysing maximum change. The team felt that such a ‘narrowing’ process was particularly important because Phase 2 of the 100RC program would result in a Resilience Strategy for Durban that would need to be clear in terms of its objectives, plans, and actions and should add value to existing city strategies.

The team therefore proposed to begin Phase 2 by undertaking a systems analysis of the resilience Focus Areas that emerged from Phase 1. This step was meant to help identify cross-cutting ‘levers for change’ and potential intervention points that could have catalytic impact across multiple areas. The systems analysis was to be grounded in analytics and data, but also be complemented by a participatory systems-mapping workshop that would draw out new relationships and connections among the resilience Focus Areas and resilience issues, using input from a wide variety of city stakeholders. Durban secured support from Dalberg, Durban’s global strategy partner through 100RC, to lead this piece of work. It was decided that the key output from the systems analysis would be a small number of intervention areas that would then be developed further with local stakeholders and expert input into solution options for each of the resilience Focus Areas.

The Durban CRO team recognized that this preliminary systemic analysis would be foundational in determining the direction of phase 2 of 100RC in Durban and the extent to which the resilience strategy work could be aligned with other city strategies and processes, including the work of the City Planning Commission. Relevant municipal and external stakeholders had to be involved in the process to ensure that the analysis was thorough and that the outputs reflected Durban’s key resilience challenges.

Dalberg and the CRO laid the early foundations for the systems analysis work during discussions with 100 Resilient Cities staff at the 2015 CRO Summit in Mexico City. The CRO Team sought better paths to advance its resilience building efforts, novel approaches to addressing continuous threats, and a capacity to pursue intersecting solutions. Dalberg proposed a process and methodology to analyse and diagnose the six resilience themes (and their underlying issues), then identify key opportunities for interventions that would address them systemically. As part of this process, Dalberg firstly collected local information and expert input, it then used this information to identify the systemic challenges for the focus areas. Finally, Dalberg conducted a cross focus area analysis and synthesis, resulting in a set of recommendations for key levers of change. This document explains how Dalberg conducted the systems analysis, including the process followed for stakeholder engagement, and the

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methodology for conducting the analysis and refining with stakeholders through workshops and presentations.

2 Step 1 | Collection of Local Information

2.1 PurposeThe purpose of the first step of the systems analysis process was to better understand the nature of the challenges in Durban by conducting primary and secondary research around the six resilience Focus Areas namely: Bold and Participatory Governance, Knowledge-centred City, Innovative Place-making, Sustainable and Ecological City, Catalytic and Transformative Economy, and Equitable and Inclusive Society.

2.2 What did we do?In January 2016, Dalberg visited Durban and conducted three workshops with stakeholders to introduce them to the systems analysis process and to begin the information collection process. A range of stakeholders were met with, including the City Planning Commissioners (18 th January 2016), Municipal sectors (20th January 2016) and the public (20th January 2016). Full attendance lists can be found in Appendix A.

At the opening of all three workshops, our team reviewed the planned systems analysis process. We then provided participants the opportunity to comment on the proposed systems analysis. In the Municipal Sectors and Public workshops, we solicited additional input by assigning each resilience Focus Area a flip chart sheet with two underlying problem statements. We asked the participants to record their comments on these underlying problems. At the conclusion of the Municipal Sectors and Public workshops, we divided participants into groups and asked each group to answer the following key questions on one of the six Focus Areas:

Why do these challenges persist in Durban? Are there current behaviours/ incentives that are self-reinforcing? Which actors most influence the problem? What does each have to do differently and/or

what does each have to give up for the situation to be improved or solved?

In addition to these workshops Dalberg undertook a combination of desktop research and interviews with stakeholders. A list of the interviews conducted during this step is presented in Table 1.

Table 1: List of research Interviews

Interview DateInterview with Dr Mpilo Ngubane, Head: Skills Development, eThekwini Municipality.

15th January 2016

Interview with residents of the Quarry Road Informal Settlement. 15th January 2016Interview with Faizal Seedat, Human Settlements, eThekwini Municipality. 18th January 2016Interview with Anna Estevao and Jeff Thomas, FEDUP. 18th January 2016Interview with Youth from Global shapers 19th January 2016Interview with stakeholders with an interest in the Catalytic and Transformative Economy Theme, eThekwini Municipality.

19th January 2016

Interview with Informal Traders 19th January 2016

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Interview with Oswald Nzama, Business Support Unit, eThekwini Municipality.

19th January 2016

Interview with Nirmala Govender, Performance Management Unit, eThekwini Municipality.

10th March 2016

Interview with Brian O Leary, City Research and Policy Advocacy, eThekwini Municipality.

15th January 2016

Interview with Janine Hicks - Gender Commission. 21st January 2016Interview with Linda Mbonambi, Area Based Management. 21st January 2016Interview with Akash Singh, Sigma International (global consulting business). 15th January 2016.

The desktop research component of the work was challenging as it emerged that information on Durban is often non-existent, out of date or not accessible. For instance, the source used for most of the demographic information on Durban is the South African Census that took place in 2011, five years prior to the conducting of the systems analysis.

Other key reports and data sources that the Dalberg team consulted include:

Integrated Development Plan (IDP (2015) Long-term development framework eThekwini Densification strategy Treasury reports Spatial Development Framework (2014/15) Green Services and Industry Analysis South Durban basin multi-point plan District Health Barometer (2013/14) Durban Climate Change Strategy (2014)

Major data sources used:

South African Census (2011) Municipal Barometer Municipal Services And Living Conditions Survey (2015) Edge Labor Market Research Paper (2013) Constraints to Growth and Employment in South Africa/eThekwini (2015,

2.3 OutcomesThe outcomes of this step of the process were:

Minutes of the three workshops. Detailed analysis of strengths and challenges in Durban, aligned to the six Focus Areas

identified in the Durban Preliminary Resilience Assessment. The detailed analysis is provided in the Appendix.

The collation of an electronic library of a range of reports about Durban.

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3 Step 2 | Identification of system challenges

3.1 PurposeThe purpose of the second step of the systems analysis process was to understanding the underlying connections and drivers between the focus areas and so identify a set of systemic challenges to the focus areas.

3.2 What did we do?Our team then spent February conducting further research and analysis from our offices in Johannesburg, Washington DC, and New York City. During these weeks we primarily focused on quantitative analysis to better understand the systemic challenges underlying the six resilience focus areas.

This step of the process was divided into two sub-components:

3.2.1 Identification of underlying barriers Firstly, members of our team reviewing the existing information that exists regarding each Focus Area in Durban and developed a snap shot summary of the key quantitative and qualitative information that was relevant to that focus area. Using this information as a basis the Dalberg team met to collectively review the focus areas and based on that information identify an underlying barrier to resilience within that Focus Area. The Dalberg team provided an assessment of the data available related to each Focus Area, and based on the team’s judgement, we identified what we believed were the main barriers within each Focus Area.

The data appendix provides the detailed analysis that was conducted for each Focus Area, and includes the data sources and reports that were used to complete the analysis. In this section we summarize the analysis for each Focus Area and the conclusions that the Dalberg team came to based on the data and reports that were reviewed. Because some of the conclusions reached regarding challenges and barriers are inherently subjective, we indicate separately where our conclusions are derived directly from the analysis, as well as where we draw conclusions based in part on the analysis and in part on our own broader understanding of urban resilience challenges in South Africa.

Focus Area Data Consulted and Analysis Conducted1. Bold and Participatory Governance

Trends in citizen perceptions and satisfaction rates with municipal engagement processes

Trends in citizen attendance at municipal consultations Trends in citizen satisfaction with service delivery Citizen responses to “Most Pressing Problems” Analysis of poverty rates and employment/unemployment Data regarding frequency and severity of civil

unrest/protests Insights from interviews regarding municipal data systems

and municipal organizational structure

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Dalberg’s interpretation of this data resulted in the identification of the following barriers and challenges related to this Focus Area:

• A process of stakeholder engagement that is driven by “top-down” rather than “bottom-up” practices

• High levels of poverty placing a heavy financial burden on the municipality to deliver housing and other essential services to those in need

• An institutional structure within eThekwini Municipality that limits strategic coordination across departments

Additionally, Dalberg inferred these additional barriers that are based on a mix of data-driven insights and analysis, as well as Dalberg’s own subjective understanding of urban issues in South Africa:

• Erosion of trust in leadership, reinforced by service delivery challenges and perceptions of corruption and political cronyism

• A performance management system that reinforces department silos and limits innovation and risk-taking across the municipality

• A system of dual governance with limited coordination around shared goals

Focus Area Data Consulted and Analysis Conducted2. Knowledge-centered City Expenditures on public education

Trends in costs for education Trends in budget allocations for education School enrolment rates Citizen reported constraints for attending school Rates of post-matric qualifications; Comparisons by metro

area Literacy rates; Comparisons by metro Migration rates/numbers, including education levels of

migrants Insights from interviews regarding municipal data systems

and municipal organizational structure

Dalberg’s interpretation of this data resulted in the identification of the following barriers and challenges related to this Focus Area:

• An under-performing education system• Low levels of numeracy and literacy for primary and secondary level graduates• Insufficient skills training or job preparation for tertiary level graduates

Additionally, Dalberg inferred these additional barriers that are based on a mix of data-driven insights and analysis, as well as Dalberg’s own subjective understanding of urban issues in South Africa:

• Municipal information systems that are not integrated and insufficient to meet departmental needs

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• Lack of consolidated strategic data and innovation team within eThekwini Municipality with the capacity or resources to research, analyse, and present synthesized insights to improve long term planning and decision-making

• A performance management system that reinforces department silos, does not encourage data sharing, and limits innovation and risk-taking across the municipality

Focus Area Data Consulted and Analysis Conducted3. Innovative Place-making Maps of spatial segregation over time

Expenditure levels for transportation by race, including share of total monthly income

Analysis of travel distances and times by race Distribution of property prices for various metros Affordability metrics for housing in various metros Backlog analysis for infrastructure and services provision

Dalberg’s interpretation of this data resulted in the identification of the following barriers and challenges related to this Focus Area:

• Legacy of segregated spatial planning results in poorer households in urban periphery away from job centers and transportation corridors, as well as limited social integration across races

• High costs of housing near job centers, coupled with high transport costs leads to growth of informal housing settlements

• High levels of poverty placing a heavy financial burden on the municipality to deliver housing and other essential services to those in need

• Significant backlog for delivery of housing and services due to resource and land limitations and ineffective/uncoordinated execution

Additionally, Dalberg inferred these additional barriers that are based on a mix of data-driven insights and analysis, as well as Dalberg’s own subjective understanding of urban issues in South Africa:

• A system of dual governance with limited coordination around shared goals• Limited innovation/dynamism and low growth within formal economy (relative to needs);

Limited investment support leads to low productivity in the informal economy

Focus Area Data Consulted and Analysis Conducted4. Sustainable and Ecological City

Data on level of impact/degradation of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in Durban

Data on land use change/transformation Pollution and health figures around industrial areas (Durban

South) (additional data on housing, transport and economic

development was integrated from other Focus Areas)

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Dalberg’s interpretation of this data resulted in the identification of the following barriers and challenges related to this Focus Area:

• High levels of poverty placing a heavy financial and environmental burden on the municipality to deliver housing and other essential services to those in need

• High costs of housing near job centers, coupled with high transport costs leads to growth of informal housing settlements and stress on the natural environment

• Limited data or awareness of the value of natural systems for human welfare

Additionally, Dalberg inferred these additional barriers that are based on a mix of data-driven insights and analysis, as well as Dalberg’s own subjective understanding of urban issues in South Africa:

• An institutional structure within ETM that limits strategic coordination across departments• An outdated and ineffective growth and development model biased towards short-term

results• A system of dual governance with limited coordination around shared goals

Focus Area Data Consulted and Analysis Conducted5. Catalytic and Transformative Economy

Unemployment and under-employment rates; Distribution of employment rates

Employment rates by race and educational attainment Trends in economic inequality over time Resident survey responses regarding personal state of

finances Distribution of formal and informal employment Household data on savings rates/capacity Employment levels and economic sectors of activity within

townships Composition of economic production and employment

levels by sector across the local economy Average wages by economic sector Change in the composition of economic activity over time Assessment of Durban’s “green economy” sector Presence of headquarters of large South African companies

in Durban Ratings related to Ease of Doing Business, including

regulatory costs Rankings related to human wellbeing and happiness Data on migration rates and skills of migrants Data regarding citizen sentiments regarding declining social

cohesion/belonging Insights from interviews regarding municipal data systems

and municipal organizational structure

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Dalberg’s interpretation of this data resulted in the identification of the following barriers and challenges related to this Focus Area:

• Weak data and evidence base to make adequate strategic decisions • Uncoordinated economic strategy that is not evidence-based or well-implemented and has

been ineffective at attracting new and more innovative industries• A persistently low skills base and insufficient skills training or job preparation for tertiary

graduates • High costs associated with seeking employment or education due to transportation and

other expenses• High levels of unemployment and underemployment and discouraged workers which leads

to high dependency rates on public grants, straining resources for infrastructure investments• In-migration of relatively lower skilled workers places additional strains on job creation and

wages, while out-migration of high-skilled workers limits innovation and economic growth

Focus Area Data Consulted and Analysis Conducted6. Equitable and Inclusive Economy

Analysis of employment rates and access to basic services, segmented by race

Comparison of household structure (e.g. single-parent, poverty rates) in major metros

Comparison of data on child welfare metrics by race (Additional data on economic equity and poverty from other

Focus Areas)

Dalberg’s interpretation of this data resulted in the identification of the following barriers and challenges related to this Focus Area:

• Legacy of segregated spatial planning results in poorer households in urban periphery away from job centers and transportation corridors, as well as limited social integration across races

• Lack of quality housing and basic services for the poor, especially those in informal housing; Growth of informal settlements resulting from high housing and transport costs

• An under-performing and unequal education system limits economic mobility and integration

• Limited savings and high numbers of discouraged workers exiting labour market contributing to high dependency rates on public grants

Additionally, Dalberg inferred these additional barriers that are based on a mix of data-driven insights and analysis, as well as Dalberg’s own subjective understanding of urban issues in South Africa:

• High rates of violence destabilize communities and reinforce existing patterns of segregation• Chronic stressors such as poverty, violence and illness further fracture already fragile family

structures

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3.2.2 Identification of Cross-Cutting Linkages Once we identified the underlying challenges and barriers for each Focus Area, we started to look for patterns and overlap across the six Focus Areas to identify common and cross-cutting challenges. To do so we clustered the common themes and prioritized to identify and articulate the cross-cutting linkages and challenges to resilience that relate to multiple Focus Areas.

The illustrative figure below is meant to describe this process visually. For each Focus Area we listed out the barriers and challenges. The color-coded barriers/challenges reflect the common barriers/challenges that appeared in multiple Focus Areas. In this illustrative figure, we see that barrier B (in blue) is common to Focus Area 1, Focus Area 2, Focus Area 4, Focus Area 5, and Focus Area 6. Similarly, barrier C (in green), is common to Focus Area 1, Focus Area 3, Focus Area 4, and Focus Area 6.

Focus Area 1 Focus Area 2 Focus Area 3 Focus Area 4 Focus Area 5 Focus Area 6barrier or challenge barrier or challenge B barrier or challenge barrier or challenge barrier or challenge barrier or challengebarrier or challenge B barrier or challenge barrier or challenge A barrier or challenge B barrier or challenge barrier or challenge Cbarrier or challenge barrier or challenge A barrier or challenge C barrier or challenge C barrier or challenge barrier or challenge Dbarrier or challenge C barrier or challenge barrier or challenge D barrier or challenge Bbarrier or challenge D barrier or challenge barrier or challenge B barrier or challengebarrier or challenge barrier or challenge D barrier or challenge barrier or challenge Abarrier or challenge barrier or challenge

Common barrier or challenege (A)Common barrier or challenege (B)Common barrier or challenege (C)Common barrier or challenege (D)

Figure 1: Illustration of common barriers across Focus Areas

As we conducted this analysis we discovered that some of the common barriers were linked and that a clustering of these barriers pointed to more fundamental/underlying challenges. This clustering pointed to seven underlying systemic challenges that emerged. We articulated these systemic challenges as follows:

1. Ineffective & Unsustainable Economic Model2. Skills Gap & Mismatch3. Strained Communities4. Constrained Municipality5. Undervalued Natural Ecosystems6. Insufficient Leadership7. Unequal Spatial Planning

Articulatig these underlying systemic challenges involved some judgement from the Dalberg team to interpret and synthesize the common barriers into what we believed to be underlying cross-cutting challenges. We recognize that this step is inherently subjective as the multi-faceted factors related to social, economic, environmental, governance, and legal aspects of urban ecosystems are complex and do not lend themselves to simple or linear “cause and effect” relationships.

The figure below reflects one example of the clustering and the resulting systemic challenge that we articulated. The Appendix provides the actual clustering of the barriers and challeneges across the

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six Focus Areas that the Dalberg team considered in order to come up with each of the seven systemic challenges.

Figure 2: Clustering of common and/or related barriers to identify Systemic Challenge (see Appendix for assumptions and process to arrive at all seven Systemic Challenges)

3.3 OutcomesThe outcomes of this step of the process was the identification of seven underlying systemic challenges namely:

1. Ineffective & Unsustainable Economic Model: City development strategy favours large projects and infrastructure, but is struggling to produce sufficient ladders of opportunity to address high levels of poverty and inequality

2. Skills Gap & Mismatch: Failing systems for education and skills-building not positioning the city to succeed in increasingly competitive global marketplace.

3. Strained Communities: Strained families and communities, with stressed support structures and limited safety nets.

4. Constrained Municipality: Over-burdened and under-resourced municipality struggling to meet city’s increasing and complex needs.

5. Unequal Spatial Planning: An enduring legacy of separation that continues to constrain economic and social integration.

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6. Undervalued Natural Ecosystems: Inadequate urban growth model that undervalues environmental sustainability as a critical lever of human wellbeing.

7. Insufficient Leadership: Highly political climate results in uninspired and ineffective leadership

4 Step 3 | Identification of key levers of change

4.1 PurposeThe purpose of the final step of the systems analysis process was to identify key levers that could address the systemic challenges identified in Step 2.

4.2 What did we do?This step of the process was divided into three sub-components:

4.2.1 Development of a set of Systems MapHaving identified the underlying Systemic Challenges, we wanted to engage our stakeholders to refine our understanding of the Challenges and, more importantly, to solicit their ideas for resilience building interventions. As our next step, we created a visual map of the Systemic Challenges. It was important that the map highlight the linkages and interdependencies of these Challenges, thus revealing potential reinforcing forces and cycles. As with any big urban theme or threat, the reason why the Systemic Challenges persist and are so hard to address is that they are intertwined with many deep structural forces—whether economic or political incentives, social and community dynamics, or other factors—that often work in parallel or are linked in important ways. We see here how the resilience lens can help us identify areas where there could be resilience co-benefits or resilience dividends that spread to multiple parts of the city/system. We thus created a visual Systems Map that reflected how the Systemic Challenges are connected and how some parts of the system directly or indirectly contribute to positive or negative outcomes in other parts of the system.

We also wanted to ensure that our analysis was relatively user-friendly and easy for our stakeholders to engage with. Hence the visual map—while still somewhat complex was a tool useful for explaining to our stakeholders why it was critical to think in systems terms and to recognize the connections and linkages. The map also proved to be an engagement tool for identifying possible intervention areas and “levers for change” that could have the most impact across the system.

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Figure 3: System Map (summary)

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To create the visual maps we started with more simple relationship maps for each of the sub-components (or sub-system) of the broader system. Here we again made us to the previous data analysis and research that we conducted into the Focus Areas to create visual relationships that explicitly articulated our assumptions of cause and effect for each sub-component of the system. Importantly, for each sub-component we identified the likely linkages to other parts of the broader urban system. In this way we were later able to “connect” the individual sub-components into a more complete picture of the total urban system.

The figure below shows a few of the sub-component relationship maps (sketches) that we developed. The shaded boxes represent potential links to other parts of the system.

Figure 4: Initial Sub-component Sketches

These simple relationship maps were completed in Microsoft PowerPoint and discussed with the Durban CRO team. After some iteration and refinement, Dalberg’s graphic design team took the PowerPoint slides and transformed them into an integrated system map using more specialized

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mapping and design tools and software.1 This step produced the initial integrated maps that showed a more connected system. Illustrations of this step are provided in the figure below.

Figure 5: Initial Integrated System Maps

Once these interim maps were created, the Dalberg team reviewed and refined the maps to ensure that the linkages across the various sub-systems included our assumptions for cause-and-effect relationships. The final (detailed) maps reflected our integrated view of the seven systemic challenges, including Dalberg’s assumptions for how various parts of the system are connected. Again, this was based on the initial research and data analysis that the team conducted, which was informed by expert interviews in Durban and the Dalberg team’s own experience and judgement.

The figure below represents one of the final iterations of the broad system map that Dalberg created. Variations of this map were used to create the final visual maps that Dalberg used in the systems mapping workshops with Durban stakeholders.

1 Initially the Design team used a network mapping tool called Kumu (available online at www.kumo.io) to sketch the system map. These sketches were then refined and editing in Adobe design software.

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Figure 6: Final Integrated System Map

4.2.2 Workshopping of Systems Maps with StakeholdersIn March 2016, Dalberg re-visited Durban to present the results of the preliminary analysis and to gain stakeholder insights into systemic challenges to building resilience in Durban. Meetings were held with the Municipal Sectors (7th March 2016), the Public (9th March 2016), the City Planning Commissioners (10th March 2016), and the Economic Development Unit, eThekwini Municipality (10th March 2016). Full attendance lists can be found in Appendix A.

All four workshops were initiated with a presentation of Dalberg’s analysis of the six focus areas and the seven underlying systemic challenges. Participants were then given an opportunity to comment on the presentation.

Additional input was solicited from the Municipal Sectors and Public workshops to identify key interventions for these challenges. For these workshops we then broke into groups and used the System Map as a starting point for identifying intervention

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areas across the various parts of the system. Participants were encouraged to alter and re-draw the system maps to reflect their own views on links and causal relationships, and to identify areas for intervention in the system.

Figure 7: Photograph of system map commentary from workshop participant

Across the two workshops, participants generated nearly 50 different resilience building interventions. Some were focused on transport, others on economic opportunities, environmental improvements, government procurement, and more. The full list of intervention ideas is presented in the Appendix.

Figure 8: Photographs from stakeholder workshops

4.2.3 Narrowing down the resilience building interventionsNearly 50 resilience building interventions were identified in the workshops. Following the workshops, the Dalberg team—first on its own, then together with the Durban CRO team—rationalized the suggested interventions and clustered them into six categories that we termed Opportunity Areas. For example, one Opportunity Area was Improving Municipal Effectiveness, and we had a set of more specific ideas for how to achieve that. Another Opportunity Area was concerned with Managing Environmental Assets More Effectively. These rather broad categories therefore became strategic pillars for areas to be addressed to build resilience more structurally in the city.

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The initial process of clustering the intervention areas was manual and relied on the Dalberg team’s collective judgement as to the natural links between the various intervention ideas. The nearly 50 intervention ideas fell under six broader “Levers of Change” that then became the primary outcomes from the workshop discussions.

Figure 9: Photograph of Dalberg team synthesis to identify six “Levers of Change” following workshops

(Following this work the Durban CRO Team then undertook another round of refinement to identify a smaller number of specific strategic initiatives to take forward.)

4.3 OutcomesThe outcomes of this step of the process was the identification six cross-cutting ‘levers for change’:

Lever 1: Strengthen local communities and build social cohesion. Lever 2: Improve effectiveness of education and skills development. Lever 3: Promote economic growth in line with 21st century trends and opportunities. Lever 4: Manage environmental assets more effectively. Lever 5: Create a more inclusive and integrated spatial plan. Lever 6: Improve municipal effectiveness.

As discussed above, each of these six levers reflect a collection of intervention ideas that were identified as part of the systems mapping workshops with stakeholders.

The details of each ‘lever for change’ are shown in Figure .

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Figure 10: Six cross-cutting ‘levers for change” identified for Durban

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5 Reflections and lessons learnedThere are several reflections and lessons that the Dalberg team has learned throughout the few months that we dedicated to this work. These learnings have to do both with the process that we undertook to design and execute the project, as well as with the more substantive insights and outcomes that came out of this work. The insights and outcomes that we got to at the end of the project ultimately depend to a large extent on the process that we followed, so we see these areas as integrated. In this section we share some of these learnings, and suggest areas for change or improvement for those considering undertaking similar work in the future. These learnings relate to four areas:

5.1 The scale and scope of the project and of the analysisRegarding the scale and scope of the analysis, our reflection is that given the very broad initial scope of focus areas, the analysis and engagement would have benefited from a more focused starting point. We intentionally started with the broadest scope of the city, assessing the many sub-systems that make up the important dimensions of the focus areas that were identified in the Preliminary Resilience Assessment. Of course, the purpose of this work was to take a systems-level approach, though in retrospect we did not account for the breadth and depth of analysis that such a broad starting point required. Taking a somewhat narrower starting point, and building around that starting point to touch on the broad set of issues may have enabled us to get to deeper systemic insights earlier on. For example, we could have started by analysing the spatial planning issues in Durban, then analysed how transportation, education, and employment challenges relate to and contribute to the spatial realities. Alternatively, we could have maintained the very broad starting point, but adjusted the timelines of the analysis so that we could have devoted the requisite attention to all important dimensions. Instead we had both a very broad set of issues to analyse, and a relatively compact timeframe, which ultimately resulted in less nuance and detail in some important areas of the analysis. Part of this was a result of our desire (and the expectations of stakeholders) to provide quantitative analysis to support our assertions and findings. Given some data limitations, this proved difficult to achieve within the timeframes that we had committed to.

5.2 The ways in which we framed opportunity areas that came out of the analysis

Regarding the ways in which we framed the six opportunity areas that came out of the systemic analysis, our reflection is that we could have framed and articulated these areas more strategically, and/or developed them with an underlying “theory of impact/change” to provide greater strategic coherence to the opportunities. For example, we had considered structuring the six areas in a way that connected them in a causal chain (reflecting a Theory of Change), taking a point of view that even within the connected system there is a logic for change that in effect prioritizes some areas and interventions above others. Depending on what we had prioritized, we believe that the feedback and acceptance of the work could have been better received. For example, as a team we internally deliberated whether we believed economic development challenges and opportunities should have been central given the high rates of unemployment and poverty in Durban. Under this point of view, prioritizing the opportunity areas that focused on the economy would have made the most strategic sense. But in the end we did not frame up the opportunity areas through a causal lens, which made

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the outputs of the work less useful as they lacked a strong unifying framework. In the absence of this strategic coherence, the six areas may have come across as too broad, too disconnected from immediate priorities for the city, and/or somewhat unconnected to each other.

5.3 The specificity and granularity of opportunities and interventions identified

Our framing of opportunity areas also led to interventions that were in retrospect too broad, and thus were less useful for the city to take forward. This shortcoming was in part a result of the broad framing, but also a result of the process and timing of the work itself. With a longer project timeline we could have iterated with the Durban project management team and other local stakeholders to push further on the opportunity areas and develop more granular interventions and ideas. Because the process is meant to be iterative and consultative, we took the decision to limit the extent of narrowing and prioritizing of interventions to create space for Durban stakeholders to shape and develop the interventions. We also felt that local stakeholders would be better equipped to narrow and prioritize based on their own priorities and insights. In the end the CRO team in Durban took these next steps on their own and engaged with additional stakeholders locally to further advance the opportunity areas and narrow in on more specific points of intervention.

5.4 The engagement process with key stakeholders, including potential biases resulting from our engagement process

The final area of learning for our team involves the overall engagement process that we followed. Parts of this process served us well, for example the early consultations that we had with members of the City Planning Commission to present our approach and solicit their suggestions for methodological improvements. In this way we were able to both socialize the objectives of the project, and also improve our approach based on the Commission’s comments and expertise. On the other hand there was at least one important area where our engagement process fell very short: we did not engage often enough with the Economic Development Unit of the municipality, an important stakeholder in the city. As a result, our analytical approach and areas of focus did not adequately take into account the points of view of this department as they related to the development priorities of the city. When we did engage more deeply with this department towards the end stages of the work we received a lot of criticism regarding our conclusions and recommendations. We may have been able to reduce some of this criticism if we had engaged these stakeholders (and/or other stakeholders) differently throughout our research process. Additionally, our outcomes and recommendations would likely have been different as well if we had engaged these and other stakeholders differently throughout. This speaks more broadly to some of the potential biases in our work that naturally result from the engagement process that we followed. On the one hand, we intentionally oriented this work form the start to take a very broad lens to urban transformation, with some emphasis on the social, environmental, and governance drivers of change. Alternatively, we could have taken a somewhat more narrow/focused orientation that placed relatively greater emphasis on the economic drivers of change, dimensions that are indeed very important for a city like Durban that faces high rates of poverty and unemployment. Of course it was important to consider all of these drivers, which we did to some extent. But it was clear that many of the stakeholders within the Economic Development Unit felt that economic issues were very much under-represented in our work, and that the economic challenges and opportunities that we did highlight were not well aligned with the broader economic priorities and strategic direction that they

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are pursuing. While on some level we consider critical feedback to be a good sign that the systems approach succeeded in at least providing a different lens with different perspectives for the city to consider, we should have understood and anticipated the criticism earlier so that we could have more properly and thoroughly engaged on the substantive issues where there were very different points of view. In the end this would have made both the analysis and the recommendations stronger and more useful for the city.

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Appendix

Appendix A: Attendance RegistersThis Appendix presents a list of all the events, and their attendance registers, that were organised for the Systems Analysis process.

In January 2016, Dalberg visited Durban and conducted three workshops with stakeholders to introduce them to the systems analysis process and to begin the information collection process. The first of these workshops was held on 18th January 2016, with the City Planning Commissioners (Table 2).

Table 2: City Planning Commissioners workshop - Attendance register - 18th January 2016

Name OrganisationAdrian Peters eThekwini MunicipalityViv McMenamin City Planning CommissionRory Wilkinson City Planning CommissionBeauty Zibula City Planning CommissionEric Mtshali City Planning CommissionGlen Robbins City Planning CommissionYasmin Rajah City Planning CommissionMalcolm Mitchell City Planning CommissionDebra Roberts eThekwini MunicipalityJo Douwes eThekwini MunicipalityManisha Hassan eThekwini MunicipalityMargaret McKenzie FutureWorksOren Ahoobim DalbergRezvan Ma'ani DalbergNadia Shah FutureWorksLindiwe Rakharebe Durban ICCPhumelele Sokhela City Planning Commission

The second of these workshops was held on 20th January 2016, with the Municipal sectors from eThekwini Municipality (Table 3).

Table 3: Municipal sectors workshop - Attendance register – 20th January 2016

Name OrganisationOren Ahoobim DalbergRichard Boon eThekwini MunicipalityKen Breetzke eThekwini MunicipalityMalcolm Canham eThekwini MunicipalityLeon Chotty eThekwini MunicipalityPrema Christopher eThekwini MunicipalityJo Douwes eThekwini MunicipalityNokuthula Dubazane eThekwini Municipality

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Name OrganisationRobert Dyer eThekwini MunicipalityGreg Evans eThekwini MunicipalityChristopher Fennemore eThekwini MunicipalityTerina Govender DalbergRavesh Govender eThekwini MunicipalitySanele Gwalela eThekwini MunicipalityGenevieve Hartley eThekwini MunicipalityManisha Hassan eThekwini MunicipalityStephen Hendrickse eThekwini MunicipalitySiobhan Jackson eThekwini MunicipalityEmmanuel Letebele eThekwini MunicipalityDavid Lieuaand eThekwini MunicipalityRezvan Ma'ani DalbergVishnu Mabeer eThekwini MunicipalityThami Manyathi eThekwini MunicipalityITumeleng Masenya eThekwini MunicipalityAndrew Mather eThekwini MunicipalityMargaret McKenzie FutureWorksNontobeko Mnguni eThekwini MunicipalitySogen Moodley eThekwini MunicipalityEdnick Msweli eThekwini MunicipalitySbu Ndebele eThekwini MunicipalityAlfred Newman eThekwini MunicipalityBrian O’leary eThekwini MunicipalityEric Parker eThekwini MunicipalityJohn Parkin eThekwini MunicipalityLawrence Pelsen eThekwini MunicipalityDebra Roberts eThekwini MunicipalityCassandra Schnoor eThekwini MunicipalityFaizal Seedat eThekwini MunicipalityNadia Shah FutureWorksShivani Singh eThekwini MunicipalitySohana Singh eThekwini MunicipalityDenny Thaver eThekwini MunicipalityDave Thomas eThekwini MunicipalityGeoff Tooley eThekwini MunicipalitySteven Waidu eThekwini Municipality

The third of these workshops was held on 20th January 2016, with the public (Table 4).

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Table 4: Public workshop - Attendance register – 20th January 2016

Name OrganisationOren Ahoobim DalbergLaura Alfers WiegoNokulunga Cele SA Medical Research CouncilNdodeni Dengo SDI AllianceAlan Dives Methodist ChurchRichard Dobson Asiye etafuleniJo Douwes eThekwini MunicipalityJonathan Edkins VUSA CollaborativeTilmaan Felix Feltes Konrad-Adenauer-FoundationCaili Forrest Oxfam South Africa / Global shapersTerina Govender DalbergInger Harber Oxfam South AfricaManisha Hassan eThekwini MunicipalityGavin Heath University of KwaZulu-NatalJoanne Lees KZN Institute for ArchitectureRezvan Ma'ani DalbergSadhana Manik University of KwaZulu-NatalPatience Matamba Department of Agriculture and ForestryMargaret McKenzie FutureWorksHarold Milan Methodist ChurchAmit Nandkuar TransnetRubeena Partab Independent researcherKiran Parthab TransnetDebra Roberts eThekwini MunicipalityNadia Shah FutureWorksNandipha Sontangane Department of Agriculture and ForestryRenee Street SA Medical Research CouncilCathy Sutherland University of KwaZulu-NatalNick Swan eThekwini Conservancies ForumJeff Thomas Community Organisation Resource CentreNoloyiso Walingo Ugu District MunicipalityShaun Worthmann KwaZulu-Natal Sustainable Energy ForumPhumzile Xulu Asiye etafuleni

In March 2016, Dalberg re-visited Durban to present the results of the preliminary analysis and to gain stakeholder insights into systemic challenges to building resilience in Durban. The first of these meetings was held on 7th March 2016, with the Municipal Sectors from eThekwini Municipality (Table 5).

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Table 5: Municipal sectors meeting - Attendance register – 7th March 2016

Name Department (if applicable) OrganisationBernardus van Heerden Architecture Department eThekwini MunicipalityBrian O’Leary Corporate Policy eThekwini MunicipalityCassandra Schnoor Environmental Planning and Climate

ProtectioneThekwini Municipality

Christopher Fennemore Water and Sanitation eThekwini MunicipalityDebra Roberts Environmental Planning and Climate

ProtectioneThekwini Municipality

Eric Parker Land Use Management eThekwini MunicipalityErrol Douwes Environmental Planning and Climate

ProtectioneThekwini Municipality

Geoff Tooley Roads and Stormwater Maintenance eThekwini MunicipalityHelene Epstein Framework Planning eThekwini MunicipalityItumeleng Masenya Energy Office eThekwini MunicipalityJo Douwes Environmental Planning and Climate

ProtectioneThekwini Municipality

John Parkin Durban Solid Waste eThekwini MunicipalityJustice Dlamini eThekwini MunicipalityLinda Enicker Finance eThekwini MunicipalityMalcolm Canham Disaster Management eThekwini MunicipalityMandla Mkhize eThekwini MunicipalityManisha Hassan Environmental Planning and Climate

ProtectioneThekwini Municipality

Mark Byerley Human Settlements eThekwini MunicipalityMichael Hlangu Business Support Unit eThekwini MunicipalityNokuthula Dubazane Environmental Planning and Climate

ProtectioneThekwini Municipality

Nosisa Mabaso Business Support Unit eThekwini MunicipalityRavesh Govender Integrated Development Planning eThekwini MunicipalityRichard Boon Environmental Planning and Climate

ProtectioneThekwini Municipality

Sohana Singh Communications eThekwini MunicipalityVumi Mchunu Business Support Unit eThekwini MunicipalityMelanie Kahl DalbergOren Ahoobim DalbergRachel Regina DalbergRezvan Ma'ani DalbergMargaret McKenzie FutureWorksNadia Shah FutureWorks

The second of these meetings was held on 9th March 2016, with the public (Table 6).

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Table 6: Public meeting - Attendance register – 9th March 2016

Name OrganisationAlan Dives Methodist ChurchAmit Nandkuar TransnetAngie Wilken Mt Moreland ConservancyAnne Bruzas Monteseel Conservancy Cathy Sutherland University of KwaZulu NatalJeff Thomas Community Organisation Resource CentreJonathan Edkins VUSA CollaborativeMark Summerton AECOMMikhail Peppas Green Heart City Movement Mona Maharaj Gandhi Development TrustMonde Hadebe Yebo Rope and RiggingNathaniel Bruzas Private MusicianNina Foster Durban University of TechnologyNokulunga Cele SA Medical Research CouncilNomabelu Mvambo-Dandala Diakonia Council of ChurchesNomandla Mbele Ghandi Development TrustNosipho Fanisi TransnetPaolo Candotti Kloof ConservancyRubeena Partab Independent researcherSanabelle Ebrahim Book and Design Fair DurbanSanele Mhlongo Clermont ConservancySarah Alsen Bioregional Simon Maphumulo KwaXimba ConservancyTerry Rens Umdloti UIPJo Douwes eThekwini MunicipalityManisha Hassan eThekwini MunicipalityMelanie Kahl DalbergOren Ahoobim DalbergRachel Regina DalbergRezvan Ma'ani DalbergMargaret McKenzie FutureWorksNadia Shah FutureWorks

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The third of these meetings was held on 9th March 2016, with the City Planning Commissioners (Table 7).

Table 7: City Planning Commissioners meeting - Attendance register – 9th March 2016

Name OrganisationRory Wilkinson City Planning CommissionBeauty Zibula City Planning CommissionEric Mtshali City Planning CommissionMalcolm Mitchell City Planning CommissionYasmin Rajah City Planning CommissionDebra Roberts eThekwini MunicipalityJo Douwes eThekwini MunicipalityManisha Hassan eThekwini MunicipalityOren Ahoobim DalbergRezvan Ma'ani DalbergMargaret McKenzie FutureWorksNadia Shah FutureWorks

The fourth of these meetings was held on 10th March 2016, with the Economic Development Unit, eThekwini Municipality (Table 8).

Table 8: Economic Development Unit meeting - Attendance register – 10th March 2016

Name Department (if applicable) OrganisationShunnon Tulsiram Economic Development Unit eThekwini Municipality Ajiv Maharaj Economic Development Unit eThekwini Municipality Russell Curtis Economic Development Unit eThekwini Municipality Denny Thaver Economic Development Unit eThekwini Municipality Shivani Singh Economic Development Unit eThekwini Municipality Tshegang Chipeya Economic Development Unit eThekwini Municipality Steve Angelos Economic Development Unit eThekwini Municipality Debra Roberts Environmental Planning and Climate

Protection DepartmenteThekwini Municipality

Jo Douwes Environmental Planning and Climate Protection Department

eThekwini Municipality

Manisha Hassan Environmental Planning and Climate Protection Department

eThekwini Municipality

Oren Ahoobim DalbergRezvan Ma'ani DalbergMargaret McKenzie FutureWorksNadia Shah FutureWorks

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Appendix B: Detailed Analysis of Focus Areas (separate file)

Appendix C: Analysis of Cross-cutting Barriers (separate file)

Appendix D: System Maps (separate file)

Appendix E: Compendium of Interventions Identified by Workshop Participants (separate file)

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