2017 Non-Alcoholic Beverage Trend Analysisbeverageforum.com/images/2017presentations/W1_Non… · · 2017-05-02Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation; Bureau of Economic Analysis,

2017 Non-Alcoholic Beverage

Trend Analysis

April 27, 2017

Copyright © 2017 Beverage Marketing Corp.

Agenda

I. Market Overview

II. Key Trends

III. Category Updates

IV. Projections

2017 Non-Alcoholic Beverage Trend Analysis

-2-


Beverage Marketing Capabilities

All data in this presentation is supplied by:


State of the Industry – The Good and the Bad

Beverage Headlines

● Liquid refreshment beverage market grew for third consecutive year in 2016 after flat performance in 2013

● Carbonated soft drinks experienced another modest sales decline in 2016

● Bottled water surpassed CSDs as largest beverage category, led by continued solid growth of single-serve water segment

● Niche categories continue to outperform traditional mass-market categories with exception of bottled water

● Wine and spirits led alcohol growth in 2016, and beer experienced essentially flat performance


-4-


Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation; Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, Department of Labor

Quarterly GDP Change

2011 – 2016

Unemployment Rate

2000 – 2016

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

-1.5%

2.9%

0.8%

4.6%

2.7%

1.9%

0.5%

0.1%

2.8%

0.8%

3.1%

4.0%

-1.2%

4.0%

5.0%

2.3%2.0%

2.6%

2.0%

0.9%0.8%

1.4%

3.5%

1.9%

2011 2012

4.0%

4.7%

5.5%

5.1%

9.0%

8.1%

7.4%

6.2%6.0%

9.6%

4.9%

5.8%

5.3%

4.6%4.6%

5.8%

9.3%

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '162013 2014 2015

The economy continues to move in a positive direction with improved GDP growth and lower unemployment, a key to successful beverage market performance

2016


-5-


Annual U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index 1995 – 2016

Source: Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan

92.2 93.6

103.2 104.6105.8 107.6

89.2 89.687.6

95.2

88.687.3 85.6

63.866.3

72.668.0

76.479.2

84.1

92.9 91.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Consumer sentiment surpassed pre-recession levels in 2015 for the first time, but dipped slightly in 2016


-6-


Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f S

KU

s

New Beverage Product Introductions 2001 – 2016

Source: Beverage Marketing Corp.; Mintel

New product introductions have risen since 2001 due to the emergence of new categories and heightened consumer demand for variety

1.7 1.6

2.0

2.9

2.6 2.6

3.2

3.8

2.7

3.94.0

4.4

4.74.5

4.34.4

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


-7-


Ca

lori

es P

er

Ca

pit

a P

er

Da

y

U.S. Refreshment Beverage Calories Per Day 1990 – 2016

212.5

251.6263.0

243.7 238.0230.3

222.7214.8

210.9 206.6 203.4199.2 198.6 198.5 197.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Caloric intake from refreshment beverages has been steadily declining since 2000 despite negative publicity the industry has received

• The growth of bottled water and lower-calorie options have contributed to the caloric decline


-8-

Source: Beverage Marketing Corp.


U.S. Total Beverage Market 2011 – 2016


-0.1%

1.6%

-0.1%

1.1%

1.7%

2.1%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Vo

lum

e C

ha

ng

e

The U.S. beverage market has experienced modestly accelerating growth since declines occurred during the recession

• The market has now experienced three consecutive years of modest growth


-9-


U.S. Total Beverage Market Volume and Wholesale Revenue

(Millions of Gallons and Wholesale Dollars) 2011 – 2016


Post-recession annual beverage revenues have been consistently positive, and outpace volume performance due primarily to price increases, trend toward premiumization, and packaging mix shifts

Ch

an

ge

-0.1%

1.6%

-0.1%

1.1%

1.7%

2.1%

1.3%

2.4%

3.7%

1.6%

3.1%

2.5%

4.7%

3.1%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 11/16 CAGR

Volume Wholesale Revenue


-10-


3.4%

0.4% 0.3%

-9.2%

RefreshmentBeverages

TraditionalBeverages

Beverage Alcohol Tap Water

U.S. Beverage Market – 2016 V

olu

me

Ch

an

ge


In 2016, refreshment beverages performed best while other categories experienced modest growth and tap water declined sharply


• Bottled Water • CSD • Energy Drinks • Fruit Bevs • RTD Coffee • RTD Tea • Sports Drinks • VA Water

• Hot Coffee • Hot Tea • Milk

• Beer • Spirits • Wine

-11-


-0.8% -1.4%

12.3%

11.0%

4.8%3.9%

3.4%

8.6%

CSDs Fruit Bevs Value Added Waters

RTD Coffee

Energy Drinks

Sports Bevs

RTD Tea Bottled Water

Vo

lum

e C

ha

ng

e

The U.S. Liquid Refreshment Beverage Market 2016

In general, traditional mass market categories have struggled while niche categories have experienced growth

• Bottled water is the primary exception of a mainstream category that has thrived


-12-



Vo

lum

e C

ha

ng

e

The U.S. Beverage Alcohol – 2016

Wines and spirits have been driving beverage alcohol growth with beer experiencing sluggish performance despite growth in craft beer

0.1%

1.2%

2.0%

0.3%

Beer Wine Spirits Total BeverageAlcohol


-13-



Estimated Tap Water Volume Growth 2000 – 2016

20.0%

-5.7%

-1.3%-0.5%

-6.7%

-4.0%

-5.3%

-9.7%-10.9%

-1.8%

23.7%

1.2%

7.6%

-4.4%

6.3%

-9.2%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

'00/

01

'01/

02

'02/

03

'03/

04

'04/

05

'05/

06

'06/

07

'07/

08

'08/

09

'09/

10

'10/

11

'11/

12

'12/

13

'13/

14

'14/

15

'15/

16(P

)

One reflection of a healthy beverage industry is the decline of tap water, and tap water consumption has been trending down in recent years

• Tap water consumption spiked during the recession but has since declined


-14-



Volume Share of Stomach by U.S. Beverage Segment – Billions of Gallons 2011 – 2016

22.7% 20.1%

15.2% 20.6%

10.6%10.3%

9.8%11.0%

10.4%9.1%

6.0%6.0%

5.7%4.9%

2.2%2.5%2.1%

2.2%0.8%1.1%

0.8%0.9%

13.7% 11.3%

2011 2016

CSDs

Bottled Water

Milk

Coffee

Tea

Fruit Beverages Sports Bev

Wine/Spirits Energy Drinks

Value-Added Water Tap/Others

Beer

100% = 59.8 100% = 62.0

Over the last five years, bottled water has increased its share of stomach by more than 5 share points, capturing the undisputed #1 position


-15-



2016 Category Winners and Losers

* Volume increases ** Volume declines

WINNERS*

• Bottled Water

• RTD Coffee

• RTD Tea

• Sports Drinks

• Energy Drinks

• Valued-Added Water

LOSERS**

• CSDs

• Milk

• Fruit Beverages

More non-alcoholic beverage categories grew in 2016 than declined, and niche categories generally outperformed large traditional categories

-16-



IMPROVED

• CSD

• Bottled Water

• Milk

• Value-Added Water

WORSENED

• RTD Coffee

• RTD Tea

• Fruit Beverages

• Sports Drinks

• Energy Drinks

2016 Beverage Report Card

Fewer categories experienced improved performance in 2016 compared to 2015

-17-



Decade Comparison 2006 – 2016

Which Categories Gained, Which Lost Volume?

4.5%

4.8%

9.9%

1.6%

3.6%

11.1%

-2.6%

-1.9%

0.8%

Category Millions of Gallons 2006/16 CAGR

4,528

641

230

164

84

-939

-2,628

2,482

402

Total LRB

CSD

Fruit Beverages

RTD Coffee

Value-Added Water

Sports Drinks

Energy Drinks

RTD Tea

Bottled Water

Bottled water has gained the most volume over the last 10 years while carbonated soft drinks have lost the most, and fruit beverages have also lost significant volume


-18-



Bil

lio

ns o

f G

all

on

s

U.S. Carbonated Soft Drink Market 2011 – 2016

CSD Market Growth 2012 – 2016

Carbonated soft drink volume declined for the 12th consecutive year in 2016 and was surpassed by bottled water as the largest beverage category in the U.S.

• Today’s consumers are migrating to healthier options and want more variety

13.6

13.3

12.9

12.8

12.612.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Year Change

11/12 -1.8%

12/13 -3.2%

13/14 -1.0%

14/15 -1.5%

15/16 -0.8%

11/16 CAGR

-1.7%


-19-



U. S. CSD Volume and Wholesale Revenue Billions of Gallons and Wholesale Dollars

2011 – 2016

$51.7

$52.4

$51.4 $51.6

$52.5

$53.2

13.6

13.3

12.9 12.8

12.6 12.5

11.8

12

12.2

12.4

12.6

12.8

13

13.2

13.4

13.6

13.8

$50.0

$50.5

$51.0

$51.5

$52.0

$52.5

$53.0

$53.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Revenue Volume

Carbonated Soft Drink Market Growth

2012 – 2016

The revenue picture for CSDs is somewhat brighter as revenues have increased modestly over the last five years due primarily to higher prices and changing packaging mix

Year Volume Revenue

11/12 -1.8% +1.2%

12/13 -3.2% -1.9%

13/14 -1.0% +0.6%

14/15 -1.5% +1.6%

15/16 -0.8% +1.4%

11/16 CAGR

-1.7% +0.6%


-20-



Carbonated Soft Drink Market Growth by Type

2012 – 2016

U.S. Carbonated Soft Drink Market Share by Type 2011 – 2016

69.3%

30.7%

73.9%

26.1%

2011 2016

Regular

Diet

Diet soft drinks have hit a ceiling and are declining at a faster rate than regular soft drinks though performance has improved in each of the last three years

• Some diet consumers have shifted to bottled water and other categories

• Diet CSDs now account for just over a quarter of category volume

Year Regular Diet

11/12 -1.1% -3.4%

12/13 -1.9% -6.3%

13/14 +0.8% -5.4%

14/15 -0.1% -5.2%

15/16 +0.3% -3.8%

11/16 CAGR

-0.4% -4.8%


-21-



Search for zero-calorie sweeteners continues; ideal sweetener should be natural, stable, in good supply, cost effective, and taste like sugar

Stevia/Erythritol Stevia/Erythritol Stevia/Erythritol/Monk Fruit

Sugar/Stevia Sugar/Stevia Stevia


-22-


Craft Soda

Craft sodas have emerged as a viable option for today’s consumers with new brands and companies entering the market, but the base is small and performance has been mixed


-23-


Smaller packaging sizes have been a source of innovation and also help contribute to reduced caloric intake


-24-


SodaStream Bonne O

Enthusiasm for home dispensing of soft drinks has waned

• Keurig Kold was discontinued and SodaStream was repositioned to a system for sparkling water

• In alcohol, ABI and Keurig have teamed up to develop home dispensers for alcoholic beverages

Keurig Kold


-25-


Consumer health and variety demands negatively impact CSD consumption. CSD category performance is further impacted by other external factors that contribute to consumption declines

Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation

● Reasons for reducing CSD consumption:

o Health

o Variety

o Economy (when weak)

● Legislation and messaging from government and regulatory agencies

● Tax threats aimed at reducing consumption

● Negative commentary from medical studies and other organizations

● Steady drumbeat of negative press


-26-


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CSDs PET Single Serve Bottled Water

Wholesaler Dollars Per Gallon Indexed to 2000

Ind

ex

2016 Absolute Price

$4.27

$1.21


Modest pricing increases in carbonated soft drinks coupled with significant pricing declines in bottled water have contributed to respective category performances

-27-



U.S. Bottled Water Market 2011 – 2016

Bottled Water Market Growth

2011 – 2016

Bottled water has experienced healthy growth each year since the recession

• The category is aided by its positioning as the ultimate health beverage

• The category now is now the largest beverage category in the U.S. volumetrically

9.19.7

10.210.9

11.8

12.8

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Bil

lio

ns o

f G

all

on

s

Year Change

11/12 +6.5%

12/13 +4.7%

13/14 +7.3%

14/15 +7.9%

15/16 +8.6%

11/16 CAGR

+7.0%


-28-



U.S. Bottled Water Market

2014 – 2016

Volume, Share and Growth by Segment

The single-serve water segment continues to drive overall category growth and accounts for two-thirds of total volume

• Domestic sparkling was fastest growing segment in 2016 off a small base

• In the last four years, all category segments experienced increased volume

Share

Category 2014 2015 2016 2016 14/15 15/16

Non-Sparkling

PET Single-Serve 7,234.2 7,881.3 8,603.3 67.3% 8.9% 9.2%

1-2.5 Gallon 1,033.7 1,071.6 1,109.9 8.7% 3.7% 3.6%

Direct Delivery 1,284.8 1,338.0 1,382.6 10.8% 4.1% 3.3%

Vending 861.7 884.7 917.8 7.2% 2.7% 3.7%

Subtotal 10,414.5 11,175.6 12,013.6 94.0% 7.3% 7.5%

Domestic Sparkling 338.8 423.7 573.9 4.5% 25.1% 35.5%

Imports 149.3 169.3 194.4 1.5% 13.5% 14.8%

TOTAL 10,902.5 11,768.7 12,781.9 100.0% 7.9% 8.6%

Millions of Gallons Change


-29-



Advances in Supply Chain Costs

While stable, PET water pricing continues to be historically aggressive and is likely to remain so at least through 2017

• Every-day pricing has been as low as $2.49-2.99 for 24-packs at retail

● High-speed bottle filling in a range of 15-18 million cases per year per line

● Mostly stable resin costs with the exception of a recent uptick

● Continued bottle light-weighting

● Stable fuel costs but may rise this year


-30-


U.S. Retail PET Water Market

Branded vs. Private Label

2011

Private Label47.5%

Branded52.5%

Private Label36.7%

Branded63.3%

2016

While branded water outsells private label in the retail PET segment, private label has made significant inroads over the last five years


-31-



U.S. Retail Premium Bottled Water Market

Share by Volume and Revenues

2016

Regular PET Bottled Water

Flavored Water

Enhanced Water

Volume Share Revenue Share

94.5%

4.5%

1.0%

83.7%

13.5%

2.9%

Retail Premium Bottled Water Market Growth by Type

2016

Segment Volume Revenue

Flavored +9.5% +8.0%

Enhanced +8.9% +10.6%

Regular PET +9.2% +8.1%

TOTAL +9.2% +8.4%

Value-added waters account for just 5% of single-serve water beverage volume, but hold a larger share of revenues due to higher pricing


-32-



Enhanced Waters

PH Balanced Water Plant Water Essence Water

Essentia Trader Joe’s Hint

Structured Water

Penta

Enhanced waters of all types are now proliferating and gaining traction in all parts of the country

• These premium-priced, craft type waters are adding additional benefits to consumers’ water experience, and offer variety beyond plain water


-33-


Bottled water became the leading beverage catetgory in the U.S. on a volume basis in 2016, surpassing CSDs

• As CSDs continue to decline and bottled water continues to grow, the gap between the two categories is only likely to widen

• On a dollar basis, CSDs continue to be larger than CSDs however

Projected Water & CSD Growth

Millions of Gallons

2010 – 2020

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p 2018p 2019p 2020p

Bulk, HOD, Vended, Sparkling, Imported Waters

Premium Retail PET Waters

CSDs 10-Yr CAGR: -1.6%

Enhanced Water

Flavored Water


-34-

p: Projected Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation


Like most other mass-market refreshment beverage categories, fruit beverage consumption has been on the decline over the last decade

• Category performance has been negatively impacted by high relative prices, high caloric and sugar content, and limited innovation

-35-


3.43.3 3.2

3.1 3.1 3.1

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Bil

lio

ns o

f G

all

on

s

U.S. Fruit Beverage Market 2011 – 2016

Fruit Beverage Market Growth

2011 – 2016

Year Change

11/12 -4.1%

12/13 -1.9%

13/14 -2.8%

14/15 -1.1%

15/16 -1.4%

11/16 CAGR

-2.3%



The category is split nearly evenly between 100% juice and juice drinks but both segments of the category have been in decline

• Both segments have declined in the range of 2%-3% annually over the last five years

-36-


U.S. Fruit Beverage Market Share by Type 2011 – 2016

52.2%

47.8%

53.0%

47.0%

2011 2016P

100% Juice

Fruit Drinks

Fruit Beverage Market Growth by Type

2012 – 2016

Year 100% Juice Fruit Drinks

11/12 -2.8% -5.6%

12/13 -1.2% -2.7%

13/14 -2.6% -3.0%

14/15 -0.2% -2.1%

15/16 -3.1% +0.7%

11/16 CAGR

-2.0% -2.6%


Copyright © 2017 Beverage Marketing Corp. -37-

Fruit drinks are dominated by shelf-stable formats while 100% juice is led by the chilled, ready-to-serve production format

• Consumers view chilled juices as fresher while shelf-stable is key with fruit drinks because they are positioned more as portable refreshment beverages and so packaged similarly to other refreshment beverages


Fruit Drink Share

By Segment

2016

Shelf-Stable36.0%

Concentrate

3.2%

Chilled, Ready-to-

Serve60.8%

100% Juice

By Segment

2016

Shelf-Stable75.9%

Concentrate

2.0%

Chilled, Ready-to-

Serve22.1%



-38-

HPP Juice Brands

Despite softness in the overall fruit beverage market, high-pressure pascalization (HPP) juices have emerged as a premium growth segment, but prices are high and the volume base is relatively low



Sports drinks, which provide hydration, electrolytes and energy, are experiencing growth in the mid-single digits

• Category volume in 2016 exceeded 1.5 billion gallons

-39-


U.S. Sports Drink Market 2011 – 2016

1,335.2 1,366.0 1,374.5 1,415.81,493.9

1,551.6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mil

lio

ns o

f G

all

on

s

Sports Drink Market Growth

2012 – 2016

Year Change

11/12 +2.3%

12/13 +0.6%

13/14 +3.0%

14/15 +5.5%

15/16 +3.9%

11/16 CAGR

+3.0%



Energy drinks have experienced mid-to-high single digit growth in each of the last four years though experienced a slow-down in the latter half of 2016

• The category’s high profitability makes it popular with brand owners, distributors and retailers

-40-


U.S. Energy Drink Market 2011 – 2016

450.5

515.1543.4

578.0629.3

659.6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mil

lio

ns o

f G

all

on

s

Energy Drink Market Growth

2012 – 2016

Year Change

11/12 +14.3%

12/13 +5.5%

13/14 +6.4%

14/15 +8.9%

15/16 +4.8%

11/16 CAGR

+7.9%



RTD Tea

Tea in ready-to-drink format is having the greatest growth in the overall tea market

• While more expensive, consumers like the flexibility and convenience of RTD tea

Loose/Bagged/Mix/Pods

-41-

60.0%

40.0%

54.3%

45.7%

2011 2016

U.S. Tea Market Share by Segment

2011 – 2016 Tea Market Growth by Segment

2012 – 2016

Year RTD Tea Loose/Bagged/Mixed/Pods

11/12 +5.2% +0.3%

12/13 +0.6% -1.0%

13/14 +3.9% -0.5%

14/15 +4.5% -3.2%

15/16 +3.4% -1.5%

11/16 CAGR

+3.5% -1.2%




The RTD tea category has experienced solid growth in recent years, driven in part by the health benefits of the category and convenience of the RTD format

• Category volume exceeded 1.7 billion gallons in 2016

-42-

U.S. RTD Tea Market 2011 – 2016

1,439.71,515.2 1,525.1

1,584.41,655.1

1,711.3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mil

lio

ns o

f G

all

on

s

RTD Tea Market Growth 2012 – 2016

Year Change

11/12 +5.2%

12/13 +0.6%

13/14 +3.9%

14/15 +4.5%

15/16 +3.4%

11/16 CAGR

+3.5%




RTD coffee remains a relatively small share of the total U.S. coffee market, but growth has been healthy

Whole Bean/ Ground/Pods/ Instant/Mixes

-43-


RTD Coffee

98.8%

1.2%

98.1%

1.9%

2011 2016

U.S. Coffee Market Share by Segment

2011 – 2016 Coffee Market Growth by Segment

2012 – 2016

Year RTD Coffee Ground/Whole

Inst/Mixed/Pods

11/12 +10.0% +7.1%

12/13 +10.7% +2.5%

13/14 +10.6% +1.0%

14/15 +18.5% +1.9%

15/16 +11.0% +1.6%

11/16 CAGR

+12.1% +2.8%



RTD coffee has experienced double-digit volume growth over the last five years

• The category is growing from a small base as it has experienced stiff competition from the large number of coffee stores in the U.S. selling fresh ready-to-serve coffee

-44-


U.S. RTD Coffee Market 2011 – 2016

72.980.1

88.898.2

116.4

129.2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mil

lio

ns o

f G

all

on

s

RTD Coffee Market Growth 2012 – 2016

Year Change

11/12 +10.0%

12/13 +10.7%

13/14 +10.6%

14/15 +18.5%

15/16 +11.0%

11/16 CAGR

+12.1%



Milk has been on a steady decline for a number of years as consumers migrate to other beverage options

• Still, a high percentage of American households keep milk in their refrigerator though they consume it less often

-45-


6.2 6.1 6.05.8 5.7 5.7

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Bil

lio

ns o

f G

all

on

s

U.S. Milk Market 2011 – 2016

Milk Market Growth

2011 – 2016

Year Change

11/12 -1.6%

12/13 -2.3%

13/14 -3.2%

14/15 -1.4%

15/16 -0.6%

11/16 CAGR

-1.8%


Copyright © 2017 Beverage Marketing Corp. -46-

#MilkTruth

The milk trade association has been advertising the benefits of milk but it has not translated into sales increases

• Milk is being positioned as an authentic product that’s a great source of protein



Growing Importance of

Innovation

• Consumer-centric focus

• Small and now big player priority

• “Re-imaging” Beverages Redefining beverage

categories Creating new

moments of consumption

New levels of sophistication

New ways of interacting with consumers

More and more “lifestyle” beverages

HPP Juice Cold Brew Coffee Plant-based Water

Kombucha

Select Offerings and Categories of Today’s Emerging Beverages

Coconut Water


Innovation will be a key driver for the beverage marketplace going forward

-47-


Category 2015 2016 15/16

Plant Water $594.5 $695.8 17.0%

Kombucha 379.2 534.5 40.9%

HPP/Cleanses 415.5 486.2 17.0%

RTD Protein Drinks 186.9 196.2 5.0%

Probiotics 177.2 191.3 8.0%

Cold Brew Coffee 57.4 108.0 88.2%

Functional Bevs 87.0 87.9 1.0%

Premium Mixers 55.0 56.5 2.7%

RTD Mate/Guayusa 21.0 22.7 8.1%

TOTAL $1,973.8 $2,379.1 20.5%

Up and Coming Categories vs. Traditional LRB Categories 2015 - 2016

(Wholesale Dollars and Wholesale Dollar Growth)

Traditional LRB 97.8%

Up and Coming 2.2% Share

100% = $109.5 Billion



The beverage market continues to fragment with craft beers, craft spirits and craft LRBs; these niche categories are small but growing faster than the overall market


Many big brands are declining, a reflection of the challenges of being big today and the emergence of smaller niche categories and brands

Top 10 Soft Drinks

Coca-Cola Classic

Pepsi Cola

Diet Coke

Mountain Dew

Diet Pepsi

Diet Mountain Dew

Top 10 Beer Brands

Bud Light

Coors Light

Budweiser

Miller Lite

Natural Light

Busch Light

Busch

Top 10 Spirits Brands

Bacardi

Crown Royal

Absolut


-49-


$1B

Projected Value

High Growth

Energy

Enhanced Fruit Drinks

Enhanced Water

SS Dairy Drinks

Low Growth

$500M

20%

0%

-5%

Bulk/HOD Water

Milk

Soy

(2011-2016 CAGR)

Hard Cider

Alc Pouches

Table Wine

Imp. Beer

Malternatives

Craft Beer

Enhanced RTD Teas SPFJ

100% Juice Fruit

Drinks

Flavored Water

$250M

Diet CSDs

Reg CSDs

$35B $50B $25B $10B $5B

Prem CSDs

PET Water

Organic Juices

10% RTD Coffee

Sparkling Wine

Straight Whiskey

Sports Drinks

Tequila

Coconut Water Almond Milk

Vodka

RTD Teas


In the future, the marketplace will be characterized by numerous high-value, low relative volume opportunities

-50-


p: Projected Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation

2017 Liquid Refreshment Beverage Projections

Among refreshment beverages, the strongest growth is projected for bottled water, value-added water, energy drinks and RTD teas and coffees in 2017

• CSDs, milk and fruit beverages will need to innovate and provide healthier options to rekindle growth

LRB Category 2017(p)

RTD Coffee +10.5% to +11.5%

Value-Added Water +9.0% to +10.0%

Bottled Water +8.0% to +9.0%

Energy Drinks +5.5% to +6.5%

RTD Tea +4.0% to +5.0%

Sports Drinks +3.0% to 4.0%

Fruit Beverages -0.5% to -1.5%

Carbonated Soft Drinks -1.0% to -2.0%

TOTAL LRBs +3.0% to +4.0%


-51-

Thank You

• Strategic Associates

• Research

• Advisors

Beverage Marketing Corporation

Documents

2017 Non-Alcoholic Beverage Trend Analysisbeverageforum.com/images/2017presentations/W1_Non… · · 2017-05-02Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation; Bureau of Economic Analysis,