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0001193125-16-787399.txt : 201612070001193125-16-787399.hdr.sgml : 2016120720161207155035ACCESSION NUMBER:0001193125-16-787399CONFORMED SUBMISSION TYPE:FWPPUBLIC DOCUMENT COUNT:13FILED AS OF DATE:20161207DATE AS OF CHANGE:20161207
SUBJECT COMPANY:
COMPANY DATA:COMPANY CONFORMED NAME:SPDR GOLD TRUSTCENTRAL INDEX KEY:0001222333STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION: [6221]IRS NUMBER:522369757FISCAL YEAR END:0930
FILING VALUES:FORM TYPE:FWPSEC ACT:1934 ActSEC FILE NUMBER:333-209926FILM NUMBER:162039037
BUSINESS ADDRESS:STREET 1:C/O WORLD GOLD TRUST SERVICES, LLCSTREET 2:685 THIRD AVENUE, SUITE 2702CITY:NEW YORKSTATE:NYZIP:10017BUSINESS PHONE:2123173800
MAIL ADDRESS:STREET 1:685 THIRD AVENUESTREET 2:SUITE 2702CITY:NEW YORKSTATE:NYZIP:10017
FORMER COMPANY:FORMER CONFORMED NAME:streetTRACKS GOLD TRUSTDATE OF NAME CHANGE:20041008
FORMER COMPANY:FORMER CONFORMED NAME:EQUITY GOLD TRUSTDATE OF NAME CHANGE:20030310
FILED BY:
COMPANY DATA:COMPANY CONFORMED NAME:SPDR GOLD TRUSTCENTRAL INDEX KEY:0001222333STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION: [6221]IRS NUMBER:522369757FISCAL YEAR END:0930
FILING VALUES:FORM TYPE:FWP
BUSINESS ADDRESS:STREET 1:C/O WORLD GOLD TRUST SERVICES, LLCSTREET 2:685 THIRD AVENUE, SUITE 2702CITY:NEW YORKSTATE:NYZIP:10017BUSINESS PHONE:2123173800
MAIL ADDRESS:STREET 1:685 THIRD AVENUESTREET 2:SUITE 2702CITY:NEW YORKSTATE:NYZIP:10017
FORMER COMPANY:FORMER CONFORMED NAME:streetTRACKS GOLD TRUSTDATE OF NAME CHANGE:20041008
FORMER COMPANY:FORMER CONFORMED NAME:EQUITY GOLD TRUSTDATE OF NAME CHANGE:20030310
FWP1d303247dfwp.htm2017 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
2017 Investment Outlook
Filed Pursuant To Rule 433
Registration No. 333-209926
December 7, 2016
MichaelArone, CFAChief Investment Strategist US SPDR Business David B. MazzaHead of ETF and Mutual Fund Research
2017 INVESTMENTMatthew Bartolini, CFASenior Research Strategist
OUTLOOK
The global political landscapeexperienced aseismic shift in 2016 that altered the picture forstocks and bonds. In positioning portfolios for2017 and beyond:
Seek income opportunities beyond traditional sources, ensuring the yield is worth the risk
Consider investments in real assets to make portfolios more resilient to the growing risk ofinflation
Look to mitigate headwinds from episodic volatility with an allocation to gold and lower riskmulti-factor smart beta strategies
WELCOME TOTHENEW ABNORMAL
What Are You Worried About?
The top three concerns of the nearly 850 investment professionals who responded to our survey1 are what you might expectafter a contentious election cycle and slow growth in 2016. However, the bottom three concerns should not be dismissed.If these idiosyncratic events come tofruition, it could pose real challenges to portfolios. These results underscorethe need for diversification to mitigate the risksyou anticipate, and the onesyou dont.
Top3 Concerns
Increasing stock marketvolatilityUS profit and earnings growthslowdown
Political gridlock in Washington and the new administration
Bottom 3 Concerns
A hard Brexit
Increase in highyieldissuer defaults
Chinese economichard landing
Slow growth and low (even negative) interest rates have defined the global economy over the lastfew years. Whileaggressive monetary policy hasbeen used to reignite growth and fend off disinflationary pressures, the economy has beenstuck in low gear peddling uphill.
After years of underwhelming growth that benefited the wealthy but left far toomany folks behind, frustrated voterschose what seemed unthinkable. First, theUnited Kingdomvoted to leave the European Union. Then, the US elected anoutsider, anti-establishment candidate as president. This surging populist sentiment has huge implications for the way forward and may have created aNewAbnormal.We expect modest economic growth in 2017 as monetary policygives way to fiscal policy and infrastructure spending inthe US and potentially elsewhere. In the US, fiscal stimulus, infrastructure spending and tax reform are likely to boostgrowth and inflation in the short term. All this has longer-termfiscal implications in a world that already has too much debt and where the future remainsuncertain.
2
TWOOVERARCHING QUESTIONSUNDERSCORE MARKET UNCERTAINTY
While there will be plenty to monitor and debate asthe year unfolds, investors have the task of allocating capital for the future today. These investment decisions should be informed byanswers to two big questions we see weighing heavily on investors minds:
Are Stocks Overvalued?
The short answer is maybe. The current price-to-book ratio (P/B) ranks in the 58th percentile of monthly P/B levels over the last 20 years (see Figure 1). US stocks are not cheap buttheyare not overly expensive relative to other time periods. However, this stands in stark contrast to other areas of the world, which are trading well below their median P/B, and theirhistorical rank is in the bottom half percentile.Relative totheUS, the rest of the world appears somewhat inexpensive. Of course, its also critical to determine whether these valuations are commensurate to the current rate of earnings. And while earnings are improving, they arenot thundering along.The US is recovering from a five quarter earnings recession, and outside the US, the earnings picture is not that dissimilar. Prior to the positive earnings growth witnessed in the third quarter, stocks within the MSCIEAFE Index had posted four consecutive quarters of negative growth, with one quarter succumbing to a near 30 percent decline. Underscored by the US and EAFE, its clear that over the last year global growth has been uneven. But with most majormarkets reporting higher results as of late, its fair to assume earnings growth hasbeen revived however, it may be a result of comingoff alower bottom, andnot from organic means.
Has There Been aShift in Sentiment?
Yes, there has been a clear rotation of styles.Value has underperformed growth in six of the last seven years. Yetrecently, with earnings growth stalled and stock valuationsrelatively high, inexpensive names have outpacedgrowth. Withthe ratio of value to growth above 1, this shift signals a clear risk-on tone by the market (see Figure 2). And that could continue if the Trump administration continues tostrike a more pro-cyclical, pro-business tone.
Figure 1: Relative Global Valuations Price to Book (P/B)
MSCI
Russell
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI Emerging
S&P 500
2000
EAFE
Japan
Europe
Markets
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Current P/B
2.84
2.19
1.49
1.31
1.72
1.46
Current 20 Year
58
59
15
37
34
34
Percentile Rank
20 Year
2.80
2.12
1.92
1.51
1.88
1.54
Median P/B
Current %
1.4
3.3
-22.5
-13.3
-8.7
-5.1
Difference
from Median
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors (SSGA) as of
11/22/2016.
Characteristics are as of the dateindicated and should not be relied upon as
currentthereafter.
Figure 2: Value Over Growth Took a Sharp Turn
Ratio
1.12
1.08
1.04
1.00
0.96
0.92 Dec
Sep
June
Mar
Oct
2013
2014
2015
2016
2016
Russell 1000 Value Index/ Russell1000 Growth Index
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors (SSGA)
as of 11/22/2016.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are unmanaged
and do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses.
Index returns reflect all items of income, gain and loss and the reinvestment of
dividends and other income.
State Street GlobalAdvisors
3
2017Investment Outlook
2017 GLOBAL
MARKET FORECAST
At SSGA, our investment process combines quantitative models with fundamental
judgment to identify opportunities.Although the picture for global stocks looks
mixed,we remain overweight in our tactical asset allocation models with preference
for the US over international exposures. We favor value over growth given the markets
more pro-risk stance post-election. In a still low rate environment, we prefer credit and
high yield over government bonds. Within governments, we prefer Treasury Inflation
Protected Securities (TIPS) aswe expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) tohike rates
twicein 2017 as inflation moves higher.
Figure 3: Forecasted Return (%) as of September 30, 2016
Asset Class1 Year3-5 Year
3.4
US Small Cap6.7
US LargeCap3.0
6.2
3.3
Global Developed Ex-US6.4
Emerging Market Equities6.0
9.6
US High Yield5.1
4.4
US Investment Grade Bonds2.0
1.6
US GovernmentBonds1.4
0.9
Commodities0.6
5.7
GlobalFactors
Value Tilted4.8
8.0
Quality Tilted3.9
7.1
Equal Weighted2.9
6.1
Min. Variance2.4
5.6
0246810
%
Source: State Street Global Advisors (SSGA) Investment Solutions Group. The forecasted returns are based on
SSGAs Investment Solutions Groups September 30, 2016 forecasted returns and long-term standard
deviations. The forecasted performance data is reported on a gross of fees basis. Additional fees, such
as the advisory fee, would reduce the return. For example, if an annualized gross return of 10% was achieved
over a 5-year period and a management fee of 1% per year was charged and deducted annually, then the resulting
return would be reduced from 61% to 54%. The performance includes the reinvestment of dividends and other
corporate earnings and is calculated in the local (or regional) currency presented. It does not take into consideration
currency effects. The forecasted performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance, which
could differ substantially. Please reference the disclosure page for the assumptions used by SSGA Investment
Solutions Group to create asset class forecasts.
4
MAJORASSET CLASS FORECASTS
AND CURRENT POSITIONING2
US EquitiesGlobal Government Bonds
OverweightNeutral
Our forecasted return for US large-cap equities is 3% andNear record-low yields provide a poor starting point for
wesee some potential for upside. Therefore, we enter theglobal fixed income markets where anestimated $12 trillion3
year with an overweight position. After five consecutiveinsecurities carried negative yields at times in 2016.
quarters of negative earnings growth for the S&P 500,weWithout price appreciation from even lower yields, this
expect growth to be modestlypositive as we flip to 2017.assetclass can only provide negative returns goingforward.
Fed interest rate increases should benefit financials,
boosting interest margins. Materials and industrialsCredit and High Yield
couldbenefit from fiscal stimulus through potentialOverweight
newinfrastructure spending.
We remain favorable on US Credit and High Yield
with 1-year forecasts of 2% and 5.1%, respectively. We
International Equitiesexpect credit to continue to outperform government
Underweightbondsas rates normalize, even as spreads tighten.
Our 1-year forecast for developed equities outside the US
iscomparable to our US forecast at 3.3%. For our tacticalCommodities
positioning, we remain cautious towards internationalOverweight
equities with underweight positions in both developed
European and Asia Pacific regions. Our underweight toWhile oil has made an impressive comeback since the
theseregions in part reflects a perceived decline in theearly2016 lows, a continuedsupply glut and modest global
efficacy of monetary policy support in the Eurozoneandgrowth will likely keep energy range-bound with a slight
Japan. Europe isalsolikely to seedownside risk as theupward bias in 2017. We forecast precious metals, such as
details of a negotiated UK exit from theEU begin togold, to continue to do well given negative global interest
takeshape.rates and a gradual return to higher levels of inflation.
Emerging Market EquitiesFactor Forecasts
NeutralFavor Value and Quality
Our forecast for emerging market equities is 6% for 2017,Over a one- to three-year horizon, welook to see how cheap
based on a stronger growth outlook as both Russia andeach factoris relative to its own history. Specifically, we
Brazil emerge from recession and as the negativeimpactfocus on book/price spreads for each factor and relate that
offallingcommodity prices has abated. We currently holdto their subsequent returns. Using these relationships, we
aneutral position in emerging market equities, with a lookforecast a value-tilted portfolio to have the highest return,
togo overweight in 2017if improvement continues asfollowed by quality. Given therecent performance, our
valuations remain attractive.analysis points to the lowvolatility factor as near levels
that would indicate it as expensive, and therefore,
producing the lowest return out of the factors analyzed.
State Street Global Advisors5
2017Investment Outlook
THREE STRATEGIES
FOR THE NEW ABNORMAL
Seek Income at a Reasonable Risk
Consider looking beyond traditional sources to structure fixed income allocations to provide diversification,
stability, and income andpursue quality, not quantity of yield, with dividend-payingequities.
Over the last few years income generation has been a realSo, if traditional bonds are risky and we are in a late cycle
challenge for investors. That will most likely continue, evenenvironment with rising rates andcredit rating downgrades
asthe US 10-Year Treasury yield spiked past 2 percentaftersurpassing levels not seen since 2009, how should a bond
thepresidentialelection. Notably, this spike in yields sentportfolio be constructed?
traditionalbondsinto a downward spiral, with the BloombergWe feel fixed income portfolios should be divided into three
Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index (the Agg), postingdistinct buckets, aimed at three objectives diversification,
theworst two week period of returns since October 2008stability, and income, with the coreof the portfolio providing
whenthefinancial crisis was unfolding. Withinvestmentallthree to arrive at a portfolio that can potentially provide
professionals identifying protecting principal and incomeincome at a reasonable risk. Outside ofthe core, we favor
generation as two top considerations for constructingfloating overfixed, and while we are constructive on credit
portfoliosin 20171, it is fairtoconclude thata major theme forbroadly for the income potential, investors may want to
2017 willbelooking forincome at a reasonable level of risk.consider augmenting their credit allocation with senior loans.
Unfortunately, uber-accommodative polices have limitedLoans may benefit more in an era of rising rates and elevated
theincome generating potential from traditional sources.defaults than fixed rate high yield.
Figure 4 depicts the current yield on a range of standard bond
exposuresfrom around the world and their 20 year average.
Ineach case, the bond yield today is significantly lower thanImplementation Ideas
itsown relative history.
Simply, return expectations (yields) for traditional bonds areTOTL SPDR DoubleLine TotalReturn Tactical ETF
still low, while risks remain high, as duration is extended.SRLNSPDR Blackstone / GSO Senior Loan ETF
However, in such a late cycle environment investors shouldnot
dash for trash to find yield. Rating downgrades forcorporateFLRN SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Investment Grade
bonds surged to over 1,000 onthe year by late November and Floating Rate ETF
high yield bond default rates areelevated.
6
Figure 4:Yields are Still Low Relative to History
%
6
5.055.18
5
4.35
3.94
4 3.383.303.203.29
3 2.282.48
2
1.261.07
1 0.28
0.01
0Japanese GermanBloomberg BarclaysUS 10 YearBloomberg BarclaysBloomberg BarclaysBloomberg Barclays
Government10 Year BondGlobal AggregateTreasuryUS AggregateUS Credit IndexUS Corporate
10 Year BondBond IndexBond IndexBond Index
n Current as of Nov. 17, 201620 Year Average
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors (SSGA) as of 11/17/2016.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are unmanaged and do not reflect the deduction of anyfees or expenses. Index returns reflect all items
ofincome, gain and loss andthe reinvestment of dividends and other income. Performance of an index is not illustrative of any particular investment. It is not possible to invest
directly in an index.
Its also important to consider how to generate income fromFigure 5: S&P 500 FirmsLeverage Increasing,
equities. However rather than simply buying the highestas arePayouts
yielders, it is worth examining one interesting trend for income
generation from broad based equity exposures: the payout ratioNet Debt/EBITDA Per Share PayoutRatio
for S&P 500 firms has increased in a linear like fashion, almost5.8 170
matching the amount of leverage in the system, as evident by4.8 140
the increase in Net Debt to EBITDA (see Figure 5). Payouts
are20 percent higher than their 20 year average, and are3.8 110
nowpotentially being financed by firms taking on more debt
atoxic cocktail if there ever was one. 2.880
For investors searching to add a portion of income generation1.8 50
totheir equity bucket, dividend-paying stocks are one potential
solution. But, a thoughtful approach is warranted. If income at0.8 Nov NovOctOctNov20
areasonable risk is a key consideration, investors should place1996 2001200620112016
ahigher emphasis on the quality and not quantity of yield. The NetDebt/EBITDA Per Share Dividend Payout Ratio Payout Ratio (Average)
focus should be on dividendgrowers and not the highest
yielders in the market, as that yield may be here todaybutSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors (SSGA) as of
gonetomorrow. 11/18/2016.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Implementation Ideas
SDY SPDR S&P Dividend ETF
State Street Global Advisors 7
2017Investment Outlook
Position for a Reflationary Environment
Consider moving beyond TIPS and invest in real assets to make portfolios more
resilient to the growing risk of inflation.
Inflation has begun to awaken in the post-election world, fueledTherefore, for investors seekingto harness these inflationary
by a pledge by President-elect Trump to increase fiscalspendingtrends, carving out a portion of anequity allocation for global
withimprovements to Americas crumbling infrastructure.natural resources stocks may warrant consideration.
These plans have fueled expectations of supply side inflation,
orrather an increase in prices of production inputs to buildFigure 6: Natural Resources, a Potential Natural
these bridges, roads, and airports. Stocks of companies inPlayonHigher InflationExpectations
natural resources industries, such as industrial materials,
agricultural and energy, can potentially help investors mitigateIndex Level Breakeven Rate (%)
supply side inflation, as they may directly benefit from4500 3.0
increasesin the underlying prices.4000 2.6
As shown in Figure 6, a basket of global natural resources
stocks has moved similar to inflation expectations. Over the last3500 2.2
five years, global natural resources stocks have shown a higher
beta (0.61) sensitivity to movements in breakeven rates than3000 1.8
standard market cap weighted core global benchmarks like2500 1.4
theMSCI World Index (0.34).
2000 DecMaySepFebJunNov 1.0
200920112012201420152016
Implementation Ideas S&P Global Natural Resources Index US 10 Year Breakeven Rate (%)
GNRSPDR S&P Global Natural Resources ETF Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street GlobalAdvisors (SSGA) as of
11/14/2016.
RLYSPDR SSGA Multi-Asset Real Return ETF Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.Index returns are unmanaged
and do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses.Index returns reflect all
items of income, gain and loss and the reinvestment ofdividends and other income.
Harness Other Potential Trump Trends WithSector-basedSolutions
Beyond the reflationary trade, which received a shot in the arm after Trumpwon the election, there are three additional trends
that mayemerge under a Trumpadministration:
Rising Interest Rates and ReducedRegulation.Rising Oil Prices. Trump campaigned on a pro-energy
Banksmaystand to benefit from an uptick in lending ratesplatform that included thedesire to finish the Keystone
andreductionof post-crisis era regulatoryreform.XL pipeline. That, along with the recent OPEC cuts, may
Consider theSPDRS&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE).act as a tailwind to energy prices and producers.
Consider the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration
Increased Infrastructure and Defense Spending.& Production ETF (XOP).
President-elect Trump has a pro-defense and infrastructure
spending agenda that aims to spend $1 trillion and overhaul
theUSscybersecurity systems.
Consider the SPDR S&P Aerospace&Defense ETF (XAR).
8
Look toMitigate Headwinds From Episodic Volatility
Consider an allocation to gold, which hasa low historical correlation tostocks and bonds,4
and lower risk multi-factorsmart betastrategies.
Over the last five years the average level of the CBOEVIXFigure 7: The Divergence of Volatility
Indexhas been well below the long-termaverage of 19.7. WithVIX Index Skew Index
low levels of the VIX, it may be fair toconclude that this is a65 148
lowvolatility environment. However, an alternativemeasure
ofmarket sentiment on volatility, the CBOE SKEW Index
otherwise known as the Black Swan Index presentsa50 136
strikingly different picture.
35124
The CBOE SKEW Index uses out-of-the-money options to
calculate a barometer for the probability of a tail risk event.
This contrasts with the VIX, which uses a wide range of options,20 112
including at-the-money options to estimate implied volatility.
Figure 7 illustrates that this index has been elevated, even as5 OctSepAugJulNov 100
19962001200620112016
theVIX has been contained to the mid- to high teens. With this,
it is apparent thatinvestors are willing to pay up in orderto CBOE VIX Index CBOE SKEW Index
hedge tail risk, and remain on edge.Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors (SSGA) as of 11/10/2016.
Divergent levels of the VIX and SKEW indices have beenPast performance is not a guarantee offuture results. Index returns are unmanaged
and do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses. Indexreturns reflect all
observed historically. The last time was from 2004 to theitems ofincome, gain and loss and the reinvestment of dividends and other income.
summer of 2007, when investorconcern about high levels of
leverage in the economy materialized. MarketssubsequentlyWith uncertainty high, some investors rushed into low
corrected in 2008,marking the end of the US housing marketvolatility strategies, only to underperform as the market
bubble and the start of the global financial crisis.reached new highs. Single factors can be cyclical, but mitigating
Against this backdrop of continued uncertainty, what tools arevolatility is important in suchinteresting times. As discussed,
available for investors seeking to protect portfolios, butstillhowever, our analysis points to the low volatility factors as
participate inmarket gainst?being somewhat rich. Therefore, investors should look beyond
As theNobel Prize-winning economist Harry Markowitzsingle-factor low volatility strategies to consider equity
advised, Diversification is the only free lunch. With thatallocations that seek to minimize volatility, as well as contain
inmind, investors may consider diversifying their portfoliosotherfactors likevalue and quality for a more balanced
byincluding a position to gold, which has a lowhistoricalanddiversified exposure. This approach may reduce risk and
correlationto traditional stocks and bonds. Gold has a 0.02provide a lower beta, while maintaining better upside capture
correlation to stocks and a 0.12 correlation to bonds overthan single factor low volatility strategies.
thelast 25 years.
Implementation Ideas
GLDSPDR Gold Shares
QUSSPDR MSCI USA StrategicFactorsSM ETF
QEFASPDR MSCI EAFE StrategicFactorsSM ETF
QEMM SPDR MSCI Emerging Markets StrategicFactorsSM ETF
State Street Global Advisors 9
2017Investment Outlook
SEEKING NORMALCY
IN THE NEW ABNORMAL
If 2016 has taught us anything, it is that the world is complex and unpredictable.
Given that we see 2017 as a year that will continue to be punctuated by significant
political and economic change, investors need to consider how best to position
their portfolios to protect from the emerging risks of uncertain bond markets,
higher inflation expectations and potential headwinds from additional populist
movements to take advantage of new opportunities.
Seek Income at a Reasonable Risk
Consider looking beyond traditional sources to structure fixed income allocations to
provide diversification, stability, and income and pursue quality, not quantity of yield,
with dividend-paying equities.
EXPENSE RATIO (%)
GrossNet
TOTL SPDRDoubleLine Total Return Tactical ETF0.650.55
SRLN SPDR Blackstone / GSO SeniorLoan ETF0.700.70
FLRN SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Investment Grade Floating RateETF0.150.15
SDY SPDR S&P Dividend ETF0.350.35
Position for a Refiationary Environment
Move beyond TIPS and invest in realassets to make portfolios moreresilient to the
growing risk of inflation.
EXPENSE RATIO (%)
GrossNet
GNR SPDR S&PGlobal Natural Resources ETF0.400.40
RLY SPDR SSGA Multi-Asset RealReturnETF0.700.70
Mitigate Headwinds From Episodic Volatility
Consider an allocation to gold, which has a low historical correlation to stocks and
bonds, and lower risk multi-factor smart beta strategies.
EXPENSE RATIO (%)
GrossNet
GLD SPDR GoldShares0.400.40
QUS SPDR MSCI USA StrategicFactorsSMETF0.150.15
QEFA SPDR MSCI EAFE StrategicFactorsSM ETF0.300.30
QEMM SPDR MSCI Emerging Markets StrategicFactorsSM ETF0.300.30
Net Expense Ratio: Some of the funds listed may have current fee agreements in place that reduces fund expensesand
if removed or modified will result in higher expense ratios. Complete detailsregarding expirations and contractual or
10voluntary nature ofsuch reductions can be found in each funds prospectus.
Glossary
At the money A situation where an options strike price is identical to the price of the underlyingsecurity. Both call and put options are simultaneously at the money. Beta Measures the volatility of a security or portfolio in relation to the market, with the broad market usually measured by the S&P 500 Index. A beta of 1 indicates thesecurity will move with the market. A beta of 1.3 means the security is expected to be 30% more volatile than the market, while a beta of 0.8 means the security is expected to be 20% less volatile than the market.
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond IndexA benchmark that provides ameasure of the performance of the USdollar denominated investment grade bond market, which includes investment grade government bonds, investment grade corporate bonds, mortgage pass through securities, commercial mortgage backed securities and asset backed securities that arepublicly for sale in the US.
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond IndexA benchmark thatmeasures the US corporate market of non-investment grade, fixed-rate corporate bonds. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moodys, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below.
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Bond Index
A benchmark consisting of publicly issued U.S. Corporate and specified foreign debentures and secured notes that are ratedinvestment grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by at least two ratings agencies, have at least one year to final maturity and have at least $250 million par amount outstanding. To qualify, bonds must be SEC-registered.
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Dollar Floating Rate Note < 5 Years IndexA benchmark consisting of debt instruments thatpay a variable coupon rate, most of which are based on 3-month LIBOR, and have a fixed spread. The index may include
US-registered, dollar-denominated bonds of non-US corporations, governments and supranational entities.
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury IndexAn index that covers the entire U.S. government bond market by containing U.S. Treasuries with maturities ranging from1 to 30 years.
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)A measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P500 stock index option prices.
CBOE SKEW IndexA benchmark designed to measure the perceived risk ofextreme negative moves often referred to as tail risk or a black swan event in
US equity markets. SKEW values, which are calculated from weighted strips of out-of-the-money S&P 500 options, rise tohigher levels as investors become more fearful of a black swan event an unexpected event of large magnitude and consequence. SKEW typically ranges from 100 to 150.
CorrelationThe historical tendency of two investments to move together. Investors often combine investments with lowcorrelations to diversify portfolios. Credit RiskThe potential for an investment loss based on the borrowers inability to repay a loan or meet other obligations. Credit risk is typically measured by credit ratings maintained by creditratings agencies such as S&P, Moodys and Fitch. Currency-Hedged FundsAn investment fund with a financial contract that allows the funds currency exposure to be hedged from fluctuations of foreign currencies. DurationAcommonly used measure, expressed in years, that measures a portfolios sensitivity to changes in interest rates.
1 A total of 839 investment professionals completed State Street Global Advisors online year-end survey, the goal of which was to determine the investment concerns and clientportfolio considerations that were top of mind for investment professionals. They survey was fielded in November 2016. Respondents represented a variety of investment professional segments holding a wide rangeofassets under management.
2 Source: SSGAs Investment Solutions Group, September 30, 2016.
3 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
4 The correlation coefficient measures the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables. It measures the degree to which the deviations of one variable from itsmean are related to those of a different variable from its respective mean. Golds correlation to the S&P 500 Index, the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index and Bloomberg Commodity Index is -0.01, 0.19 and 0.44, respectively. Indexreturns reflect capital gains and losses, income, and the reinvestment of dividends. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Source: Bloomberg and SSGA, as of 12/31/2015.
EBITDAA measure of net income with interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization added back to it. It can be usedto analyze and compare profitability between companies and industries because it eliminates the effects of financing andaccounting decisions.
GrowthIn style investing, a strategy that focuses on companies that have the potential to grow their earnings at a high rate.
Factor PremiaThe historical outperformance of factors (such as momentum and yield) versus market-cap-weightedindices.
High-Yield Corporate BondsCorporate debt with generally lower credit ratings and higher yieldsthan investment grade corporate bonds.
MSCI EAFE IndexAn equities benchmark that captures large- andmid-cap representation across developed market countries around the world, excludingthe
USand Canada.
MSCI Emerging Markets IndexAn equity benchmark that captures large and mid-cap representation across 23emerging markets countries. With 834 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted marketcapitalization in each country.
MSCI Europe IndexA benchmark capturing large- and mid-cap representation across 15 developed market countries in Europe.
MSCI Japan IndexA benchmark designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid-cap segments of the Japaneseequity market.
Price-to-Earnings Multiples, or P/E RatioA valuation metric that uses the ratio of thecompanys current stock price versus its earnings per share.
Russell 1000 Growth IndexA benchmarkof U.S. mid- and large-cap stocks that have growth style characteristics. It is a subset of the Russell 1000 Index, which is comprised of the 1,000 largest US stocks by market capitalization.
Russell 1000 Value IndexA benchmark of U.S. mid- and large-cap stocks thathavevalue stylecharacteristics. It is a subset of the Russell 1000 Index, which is comprised of the 1,000 largest US stocks by market capitalization.
Russell 2000 IndexA benchmark that measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe.
S&P 500 IndexA popular benchmark for U.S. large-cap equities that includes
500companies from leading industries and captures approximately 80% coverage ofavailable marketcapitalization.
Smart BetaSmart beta defines a set of investment strategies that emphasize theuseof alternative index construction rules to traditional market capitalization based indices.
Treasury InflationProtected Securities (TIPS)A Treasury security that is indexed to inflation in order to protect investors from the negative effects of inflation. TIPS are considered an extremely low-risk investment since they are backed by the U.S. governmentand because the par value rises with inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, while the interest rate remains fixed.
ValueOne of the basic elements of style-focused investing that focuses on companies that may be priced below intrinsic value. The most commonly used methodology to assessvalue is by examining price-to-book (P/B) ratios, which compare a companys total market value with its assessed book value.
Forecast assumptions
For Fixed Income: Our returnforecasts for fixed income derive from current yield conditions together with expectations as to how real and nominal yield curves could evolve relative to historical averages. For corporate bonds, we also analyze credit spreads and their termstructures, with separate assessments of investment-grade and high-yield bonds.
For Equities: Our long-termequity forecasts begin with expectations for developed market large capitalization stocks. The foundation for these forecasts are estimates of real return potential, derived from current dividend yields, forecast real earnings growth rates, andpotential for expansion or contraction of valuation multiples. Our forecasting method incorporates long run estimates of potential economic growth based on forecast labor and capital inputs to estimate real earning growth.
For Factor Returns: Over a one to three-year forecast horizon, we look to see how cheap each factor isrelative toits own history. Specifically, we focus on book/price spreads for each factor and relate that to their subsequent returns. We find that valuation ratios are useful for forecasting market returns.
For Commodities: Our long-term commodity forecast is based on the level of world GDP, as a proxy for consumption demand,as well as on our inflation outlook.
Additional factors affecting the returns to a commodities investorinclude how commodities are held (e.g. physically, synthetically, or via futures) and the various construction methodologies of different commodity benchmarks.
State Street Global Advisors 11
TheResearchviewsTeamexpressedthroughinthis theperiod materialendedare theNovemberviews of30,the2016SPDRandETFsareandsubjectSSGAtoFunds change statementsbasedthatonmaymarketbe deemedand otherforward-lookingconditions. Thisstatements.documentcontains Pleasenotecertainthatany developments such statementsmayarediffernotguarantees materially fromof anythosefutureprojected.performance and actual results or Thebereliedinformationon as such.providedIt shoulddoesnotnotbeconstituteconsideredinvestmenta solicitationadvicetoand buyor itshould anoffernottosella objectives,security.strategies,It doesnot taxtake statusintooraccount investmentanyhorizon. investorsYouparticularshouldconsultinvestmentyourtax Actively and financialmanagedadvisor.fundsdo not seek to replicate the performance of a specified index. fund An activelyis not appropriatemanaged fundformayall investorsunderperformand isits notbenchmark.intended to Anbeinvestment a completein the investors investmentmayprogram.receive Investinglittle or noinreturn thefundon involvesthe investmentrisks, includingor that investorsthe risk thatmaylosepart Investmentsor evenin assetall ofbackedthe investment.and mortgage backedsecurities are subject to prepayment environmentrisk andwhichincreasescanlimit the potentialthe potentialfor lossforin gaina risingduringinterestadecliningrateinterest environment.rate interest Bonds generallyrate riskpresent (as interestlessrates short-termrise, bondriskand pricesvolatilityusually thanfall);stocks,issuerbut defaultcontainrisk;issuer for longer-termcredit risk;securities.liquidityrisk; Anyand fixed inflationincomerisk.securityThesesoldeffectsor redeemedare usuallypriorpronouncedtoWhile maturitythemaysharesbe subjectof ETFs toareasubstantial tradable ongainsecondaryor loss. markets,they may not readily trade marketin stress.all marketconditions and may trade at significant discounts in periods of Because diversifiedof fundstheirnarrow andgenerallyfocus,result sector infundsgreatertendpriceto befluctuationsmore volatilethanthanthe broadlyA overallmarket.value style of investingemphasizes undervalued companies with characteristics for valuationsimprovednevervaluations.improve Thisor thatstyletheof returnsinvestingonisvaluesubjectequityto thesecuritiesrisk thatthe areless thanreturns Although subjecton otherto thestylesrisks ofof investingcommonorstocks,the overalllow volatilitystock market.stocks are seen as having low volatilitya lowerstocksrisk profilemay notthanproducetheoverallinvestmentmarkets.exposureHowever,thatafund has lowerthat investsvariabilityinto Aquality changesin stylesuchofstocksinvestingpriceemphasizeslevels. companies with high returns, stable earnings, thepast performanceand low financialof theseleverage.companiesThisinvesting does notstylecontinueis subjector that tothethereturnsrisk thatonquality overallstockequitymarket.securities are less than returns on other investing styles or the ETFs maytradetrade atlikepricesstocks,aboveareor subjectbelowtotheinvestmentETFs netrisk, assetfluctuatevalue. Brokeragein market commissionsvalueandand PassivelyETF expensesmanaged willfundsreduceinvestreturns.by sampling the index, holding a range of securities that, other inthecharacteristics.aggregate,Thisapproximatesmay cause thethe fullfundIndexto experiencein terms of trackingkey risk errorsfactorsrelativeandDiversification toperformance doesofthenotindex.ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.
Equity andeconomicsecuritiesconditions.are volatile and can decline significantly in response to broad market Foreign environmental,(non-U. S. credit ) Securitiesand informationmay be subjectrisks. Foreigntogreatersecuritiespolitical,mayeconomic,be subjectto liquidity. higher volatilityTheserisks thanare U.S. magnifiedsecurities,in dueemergingtovaryingmarkets.degrees of regulation and limited Securities rates do notwithkeepfloatingpacewith or variablecomparableinterestmarketrates interestmay declinerates.inNarrowlyvalue if theirfocusedcoupon orasset investmentsclasstypicallyrisk. TheexhibitFundishighersubjectvolatilityto creditandrisk,arewhichsubjectrefersto greaterto thegeographic possibilityInvesting that the debtinissuers commoditieswill notentails be ableto significantmake principalriskand andinterestis not appropriatepayments. for
Importantallinvestors.InformationRelating to SPDR Gold Shares Trust:
The SPDR Gold Shares Trust(GLD) has filed a registration statement (SEC) (includingfor atheprospectus)offering to withwhichthethisSecuritiescommunicationandExchangerelates.CommissionBefore youother invest,documentsyou shouldGLDreadhasthefiledprospectuswith the inSECthatforregistrationmorecompletestatementinformationandabout visitingGLDEDGARand thison theoffering.SEC websiteYou mayatgetwww.these sec.documents gov or byvisiting forfreewww. by spdrgoldshares.com. Alternatively, the Trust or any authorized participant
will1-866-320-4053.arrange to sendyou the prospectus if you request it by calling
1940 GLD is(thenot 1940an investmentAct) and companyis notsubjectregisteredto regulationunder theunderInvestmentthe CommodityCompanyExchangeAct of
Act protectionsof 1936associated (the CEA)with . Asa ownershipresult, shareholdersof sharesinofantheinvestmentTrust do notcompanyhave the
GLDregisteredshares undertrade thelike 1940stocks,Act areorthe subjectprotectionsto investmentaffordedriskbyandthe willCEA.fluctuate in byGLDmarketvalue. (less itsTheexpenses),value ofGLD andfluctuations shares relatesinthe directlyprice toof thegoldvaluecouldofmaterially the goldheldandshares, adverselywhichaffecttradeaninvestment at market price,in themayshares.be moreTheprice or lessreceivedthantheuponvaluetheof salethegold of thegold representedto pay forby itsthem.ongoingGLD expenses,does not generatethe amountany ofincome,goldrepresentedand as GLDbyregularlyeach Sharesellswill investmentdeclinein overGLD.time.PleaseInvestingsee theinvolvesGLD prospectusrisk, andyouforcould a detailedlosemoney discussionon anofthe risks For moreof investinginformation:in GLDStateshares.Street Global Markets, LLC, One Lincoln Street, Boston,
When MA, 02111.this document866.320.4053isdistributedspdrgoldshares.electronically, comthe GLD prospectus is available The byclickingvalueshere. of debt securities may decrease as a result of many factors, including, bywayperceivedofexample,inability orgeneralunwillingnessmarketfluctuations; of issuers, guarantorsincreases orinliquidity interestproviders rates; actualtoor andmakeprepaymentsscheduled principalof principal,or interestwhichpayments; often mustilliquidity be reinvestedin debtinsecurities obligationsmarkets;payinginterest Increaseatinlower real interestrates. rates can cause the price of inflation-protected debt canbe securitiesunpredictable.to decrease. Interest payments on inflation-protected debt securities Government pricefluctuationsbondsthanand stocks,corporatebutbonds providegenerallylower potentialhave morelong-termmoderatereturns.short-term Non-diversified bemore volatilefundsthandiversified that focusfunds on a relativelyand themarket small numberas a whole.of securities tend to Credit Investmentsrisk refersin SeniortotheLoanspossibilityare subjectthat thetoborrower credit risk ofanda SeniorgeneralLoaninvestmentwill be unablerisk.obligation. and/orunwillingDefaulttoin makethepayment timely interestof interestpaymentsor principaland/or onrepaya Seniorthe principalLoan willonresultitsinvaluea reductionof the Portfoliosin the valueinvestmentsof the SeniorandLoan a potentialand consequentlydecrease inathereductionnet assetinvaluethe(NAV) Investing ofin thehighPortfolio.yield securities, otherwise known as junk bonds, is considered speculative investmentgrade and involvesfixedincomegreatersecurities.risk of lossTheseof principallower-qualityand interestdebt securitiesthan investinginvolveingreater the issuer.risk of default or price changes dueto potential changes in the credit quality of The respectivetrademarksowners.and Thirdservicepartymarksdatareferencedprovidersmake herein noarewarrantiesthepropertyor representationsof theirof noany liabilitykind forrelatingdamagesto theofaccuracy, any kind relatingcompletenessto theuse or timelinessof suchdata.of the data and have
DoubleLine is a registered trademark of DoubleLine Capital LP.
Standard FinancialServices & Poors, LLCS&P(S&P);andSPDRDoware Jonesregisteredis a registeredtrademarkstrademarkof Standardof Dow& JonesPoorsuse Trademarkby S&P HoldingsDow JonesLLC Indices(DowJones);LLC (SPDJI)and theseand sublicensedtrademarksfor havecertainbeenpurposes licensed forbysponsored, State Streetendorsed,Corporation.sold StateorpromotedStreet Corporationsby SPDJI, DowfinancialJones,products S&P, theirarerespectivenotregarding affiliates andthethird advisabilityparty licensorsofinvestingandin nonesuchof product(s)such partiesnor makedo theyanyhaverepresentationany liabilityin Distributor:relation thereto,StateStreetincludingGlobalforMarkets, any errors,LLC,omissions,member orFINRA,interruptionsSIPC, aof whollyanyindex. owned subsidiary Street Corporationof StateandStreetitsCorporation. affiliates. CertainReferencesStateStreet to StateaffiliatesStreetmay provideincludeservicesStateandStatereceiveStreetfeesGlobalfromMarkets,the SPDRLLCETFs.is thedistributor for all registered products on
&DoubleLine behalf of the advisor.CapitalSSGA LP as theFundssub-advisor.ManagementGSOhasCapitalretainedPartnersGSOandCapitalDoubleLinePartnersCapital BeforeLPinvesting,are not affiliatedconsiderwith Statethefunds StreetGlobalinvestmentMarkets, objectives,LLC. risks,charges prospectus whichandcontains expenses.thisToobtainand othera prospectusinformation,orcallsummary
1-866-787-2257 or visit spdrs.com. Read it carefully.
2016 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
ID8199-IBG-221051116Exp. Date: 12/31/2017
SPDR GOLD TRUST has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus) with the SEC for theoffering to which this communication relates. Before you invest, you should read the prospectus in that registration statement and other documents the issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information about the Trust and this offering. Youmay get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Trust or any Authorized Participant will arrange to send you the prospectus if you request it by calling toll free at 1-866-320-4053 orcontacting State Street Global Markets, LLC, One Lincoln Street, Attn: SPDR Gold Shares, 30th Floor, Boston, MA 02111.
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