2016 to 2021 - Metal Bulletin · 2016 to 2021 Part of the Metal Bulletin ‘2016 Survival Kit‘series ... Apex also provides a weighted average of v o Ç [forecasts. The use of weightings

Special Report

2016 to 2021

Part of the Metal Bulletin ‘2016 Survival Kit‘ series


02Special Report

Metal Bulletin Special Report | APEX Quarter 3, 2015 Copyright © 2002-2015 Metal Bulletin

Copyright notice: © 2002-2015 Metal Bulletin. All rights reserved. No part of this publication (text,data or graphic) may be reproduced, stored in a data retrieval system, or transmitted,in any form whatsoever or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without obtaining Metal Bulletin’s prior written consent. Unauthorised and/orunlicensed copying of any part of this publication is in violation of copyright law. Violators may be subject to legal proceedings and liable for substantial monetary damages for eachinfringement as well as costs and legal fees. Brief extracts may be used for the purposes of publishing commentary or review only provided that the source is acknowledged.

ContentsPage 3 Methodology

Page 4 Base Metals

Page 5 Aluminium

Page 6 Copper

Page 7 Lead

Page 8 Nickel

Page 9 Tin

Page 10 Zinc

Page 11 Precious metals

Page 12 Gold

Page 13 Silver

Page 14 Palladium

Page 15 Platinum

Page 16 Iron Ore


03

Metal Bulletin Apex is a one-in-two product. First, itprovides a ranking of the best analysts by forecastaccuracy and metal on a quarterly basis. Secondly, itcombines the best forecasts to provide a collectiveintelligence forecast.

Apex contains leaderboards of analysts based upon theaccuracy of their most recent price predictions for thebase metals traded on the London Metal Exchange,precious metals and iron ore.

Metal Bulletin Apex answers three questions: Where willbase metal prices be trading in the future? Which bank,brokerage or research published priceexpectations have been most accurate previously? How acollective intelligence forecast biased to the mostaccurate analysts would be?

Metal Bulletin takes forecasts from established credibleand independent analysts/desks and combines them in aweighted average to form a consensus forecast. Theweightings are created from the past performance of theanalysts, in both long-term and short-term forecasting,allowing those with the greatest skills and marketunderstanding to have the greatest influence in theconsensus forecast.

Analyst rankings:

The Apex is open to all credible independentanalysts/desks, although each institution is limited to oneforecast, as being representative of the whole company.

Each analyst/desk provides the latest forecasts for eachmetal at the turn of each quarter. At the end of thequarter a definitive ranking of accuracy in the forecastswill be calculated and published.

The accuracy rating reflects the % variance of the actualfrom the forecast. It is calculated as 100% minus thevariance in % to the actual benchmark cash or 3m price.

The analyst forecasts may be provided as either cash or 3-month prices and the accuracy of the forecast will berated against these averages. All prices provided in c/lbwill be converted to $/tonne at 2204.62 Ib/tonne.

The overall ranking is a straight average of the variancesof all forecasts received from each analyst across allmetals as appropriate.

The metals included in Apex 201 are: Copper,Aluminium, Nickel, Lead, Zinc, Tin, Gold, Silver, Platinum,Palladium and Iron Ore.

Collective Intelligence

Apex also provides a weighted average offorecasts. The use of weightings on accuracy allows thebest analysts to have the greatest say in the forecasts.The top five most accurate forecasters will see theirforecasts included in the weighted forecast. The mostaccurate forecaster will see their forecast receive thehighest weighting in the final calculation. The analystweightings are updated quarterly.

Annual ForecastsForecasts received for APEX calculations each quarter ofthe calendar year will be ranked for accuracy andaveraged with results to come out during the first quarterof the following year.

For inclusion data must be received by 12 m Londontime on the 14th day of the first month of the quarter.Any data provided after this deadline will not be updated.In this situation the most recent data provided will beused for one quarter. After this time the data will beexcluded.

For further information on Metal Apex pleasecontact:

Inaki [email protected]

+ 44 (0) 20 7827 6430

Claire Hack [email protected]

+ 44 (0) 20 7827 6415

Special Report


January 2015

Rank Analyst Accuracy

1 INTL FCStone - Edward Meir 96.64%

2 Numis 94.05%

3 UBS 93.83%

4 ICBC Standard Bank - Leon Westgate 93.61%

5 BNP Paribas - Stephen Briggs 93.20%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Individual Base MetalsLeaderboard Accuracies

70%

80%

90%

100%Copper

Aluminium

Zinc

Tin

Nickel

Lead

INTL FCStone - Edward MeirNumisUBSICBC Standard Bank - Leon WestgateBNP Paribas - Stephen Briggs

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016

% c

hang

e on

ave

rage

fore

cast

from

pr

evio

us q

uart

er

Quarter forecastedCopper Aluminium ZincTin Nickel Lead

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

Fore

cast

s spr

ead

in a

yea

r's ti

me

This APEX Previous APEX


04Special Report


Base MetalsBase Metals Leaderboard Q3 2015

Overall Base Metals Top 5 Analysts

Change in Forecasts from Previous Quarter

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94.68%nosli W - David 93.84%

93.29%

sggri Bnehpte - Sasbri 92.82%

y97.23%

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94.68%93.84%

93.29%

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05Special Report


MB Apex: AluminiumAluminium Leaderboard Q3 2015

0009

0059

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reppo C)ecrip

k1

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str


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06Special Report


MB Apex: CopperCopper Leaderboard Q3 2015

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str


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07Special Report


MB Apex: LeadLead Leaderboard Q3 2015

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08Special Report


MB Apex: NickelNickel Leaderboard Q3 2015

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23,71

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45,71

5

81

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Q3 Q4

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2020 2021

270

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t

TS




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sweoL

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dastaceroF

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h

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1

0-

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e

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sk

1

/de

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000,7

%

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0

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Q4

2017 2018 2019 2020

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13/10/2015 dn - AASCL

22/09/2015 diva - DitCi

13/10/2015 erzbmmCo

saeb - SUIE13/10/2015


r

1

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180

260



09Special Report


MB Apex: TinTin Leaderboard Q3 2015

0053

ZixpeAn iteullBlaMetphas cenn$/to(tsascreoF

nc Zi)ecrip

k1

anR styalnASCTL FIN

2 misuN3 riPaP BN

4 - DavidtiCi

5 BtalMe

str





y92.71%

acru

91.37%87.64%

87.32%

86.56%

005115

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S

hte

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gi(wew eivusnsensoC


tsweoL

d)

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4

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0

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267,

3

68,1 439,1 910,2 2

056, 76,1 467,1 087,1 1

Q4 Q1 Q2

511502

ava((vweewiievsussuneenssenoCCo

Q42017 2018 2019 2020

0 0

0 3

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2

01,2

340,2

0

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0

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0

22,2

4

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008,1 09,1 59,1 90,2 ,2

Q3 Q4

6102 7102 8102 2

woowllo-tsehgghiighegnaanR)allallliilnaan ((wweewiievsussuneenssenoCCo

2020 2021

0 103

4

61,2

190 61,2

91190 0202


t

TS



09/10/2015 - FCCMBR

te

sweoL

tshegiH

dhtegiwetoa llianv%

CASFOREINC Z

dastaceroF

/destylaAn

1

h

2015

0-

1creaes Rniet


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sk/de

, ,

2015 2016

6

, ,

598,

%

13,2 513,2 513,2 2

%2.0 0.5 %0.6 %2.8 7

Q4 Q1

0

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0

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5

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Q4

2017 2018 2019 2020

5 6 7 5 524,2

%

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%

55,2

%

24,2 ,2

1.7 7.8 1.1

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5

,

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13/10/2015 dn - AASCL

01/10/2015 - PhsimuN

14/10/2015 orm ANBA

22/09/2015 diva - DitCi

13/10/2015 erzbmmCo




l 1locsir Dewrd

en 1fniw Sli - Ph


n 1osli Wd *

k 1naerzb *

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01,2

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490

hca - LSBU09/10/2015



saeb - SUIE13/10/2015

w 1

1

ah Snal

ek

1

el Mtra - Besi

a

1

niemFa Lsir - Ch

erilra Menits

3 2502,2490,2478,1

2

56,

6 513,2161,2489,1

1

98,

4 478,1478,1478,1

1

67,

0 009,1028,1577,108,

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2

02,2

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4

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4

02,2

524,2

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5

02,2

5

90,2

7

90,2

0

78,1

0 ,224,255,202,209,1

7 161,234

502

535



10Special Report


MB Apex: ZincZinc Leaderboard Q3 2015

Rank Analyst Accuracy

1 INTL FCStone - Edward Meir 97.45%

2 Numis 94.71%

3 ABN Amro - Georgette Boele 93.89%

4 ICBC Standard Bank - Leon Westgate 90.87%

5 Natixis - Bernard Dahdah 89.49%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Individual Precious MetalsLeaderboard Accuracies

70%

80%

90%

100%Gold

Silver

Platinum

Palladium

INTL FCStone - Edward Meir

Numis

ABN Amro - Georgette Boele

ICBC Standard Bank - Leon Westgate

Natixis - Bernard Dahdah

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016

% c

hang

e on

ave

rage

fore

cast

from

pr

evio

us q

uart

er

Quarter forecasted

Gold Silver Platinum Palladium

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

Gold Silver Platinum Palladium

Fore

cast

s spr

ead

in a

yea

r's ti

me

This APEX Previous APEX


11Special Report


Precious MetalsPrecious Metals Leaderboard Q3 2015

Overall Precious Metals Top 5 Analysts

Change in Forecasts from Previous Quarter

006116

007117

GoxpeAn iteullBlaMetecri phascz$/o(tsascreoF

dl Go)e

k1

anR styalnAs - ixatiN

2 CS FLTIN3 mro ABNA

4 GtééicoS

5 riPaP BN

stah

ccAdh DadarnBers - 99.96%

ri Meardwd - EentoCS 99.07%eleo Bettergo - Gemro 98.98%

arh Bnibo - Reraléné G 97.74%

asbri 97.29%

y99.96%

acru

99.07%98.98%

97.74%

97.29%

007

008

009

000110

00110111

002112

003113

004114

005115

Q4 Q1 Q2

Q3 Q4

S

hte

GEAR AVEGOLD

gi(wew eivusnsensoC


tsweoL

d)

2015

1

1

1

hte

a)

2015 2016Q4 Q1

4

Q2 Q3

901,

4

60,1 520,1 999

721,

0

11,1 701,1 711,1 1

550, 20,1 960 925

Q4 Q1 Q2

511502


Q42017 2018 2019 2020

960

4 7 2

989

3 031,1

925

51,1

900

32,1

0

42,1

0

,1

101,1 01,1 ,1

Q3 Q4

611602 711702 811802 2

wowllo-tsehgghiighegnaanR


2020 2021

2 072

0

52,1

001 02,1

91190 0202

tsstew

)deedttehgghiigeeiw

t

TS

ern - BsxiitaN09/10/2015

- SCCMBR09/10/2015

éné GéticoS13/10/2015

te

sweoL

tshegiH

dhtegiwetoa llianv%

CASE FORGOLD

dastaceroF

/destylaAn

1

TS

h

2015

1

1

1

adha Ddraern

er

1

kla Wenhept

rah Bnibo Re -éralén

sk/de

, ,

2015 2016

5 081,

%

02,1 052,1 572,1 1

%8.1 5.4 %0.8 %8.11 1

0 960960070,1

1

51,

0 002,1002,1002,1

0

51,

0 00,1000,1520,1

Q3

50,

Q4 Q2Q1

0 0

, , ,

970

2017 2018 2019 2020

0 0 403,1

%

52,1

%

03,1 53,1 ,1

5.4 8.91

0

0 0 3

20,1

00 ,103,103,152,102,1

Q4

6

,

2020 2021

064 03,1

003

erzbmmCo13/10/2015

diva - DitCi22/09/2015

orm ANBA08/10/2015

- PhsimuN01/10/2015

dn - AASCL13/10/2015

otCS FLTNI12/10/2015

abP PariNB10/09/2015

dnatC SCBI13/10/2015

k 1

1

naerzb

n

1

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e

1

eloe Btetgreo - G

en

1

fniw Sli - Ph

l

1

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r

1

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s

1

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432

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saeb - SUIE13/10/2015

y 1

1

llu T

ek

1

el Mtra - Besi

a

1

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erilra Menits

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0

0

01

033

6 03,164


12Special Report


MB Apex: GoldGold Leaderboard Q3 2015

24

SxpeAn iteullBlaMetecri phascz$/o(tsascreoF

revli S)e

k1

anR styalnAtééicoS

2 CS FLTIN3 mro ABNA

4 misuN

5 - BsixatiN

star

ccA Bhnib - Roealréné G 99.46%

ri Meardwd - EentoCS 97.45%eleo Bettergo - Gemro 96.78%

95.00%

ahd Dahardrne - B 94.77%

y99.46%

acru

97.45%96.78%

95.00%

94.77%

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Q4 Q1 Q2

Q3 Q4

S

hte

GEAR AVERVEILS

gi(wew eivusnsensoC


tsweoL

S

d)

2015

1

1

1

hte

a)

2015 2016Q4 Q1

2

Q2 Q3

7.51

3

.41 2.41 2.41 1

5.51

0

.51 5.51 8.51 1

0.41 .41 3.21 3.21 1

Q4 Q1 Q2

511502


Q42017 2018 2019 2020

4

5 0 8

4.41

2

.31

5.61

5

.61

4

.71

0

.81

0

1

4.21 .31 .41 .41 1

Q3 Q4

611602 711702 811802 2

wowllo-tsehgghiighegnaanR


2020 2021

6 3.8

0

.91

5.4 .81

91190 0202

tsstew

)deedttehgghiigeeiw

t

TS


- SCCMBR09/10/2015


te

sweoL

tshegiH

dhtegiwetoa llianv%

CASE FORRVEILS

dastaceroF

/destylaAn

1

TS

h

2015

1

1

1

adha Ddraern

er

1

kla Wenhept


sk/de

4 7

2015 2016

.61

%

.71 7.71 5.81 1

%2.1 2.5 %5.9 %4.11 1

5 13.213.210.41

1

.51

3 5.715.715.71

0

.51

0 .410.410.41

Q3

.41

Q4 Q2Q1

5 8 3 0 2

5

2017 2018 2019 2020

.81

%

.81

%

.91 .02 2

0.2 9.22

4

0 0 9

.31

3

.21

5 1.91.91.81.71

Q4

6 0

2020 2021

.2 .02

0.9


erzbmmCo13/10/2015


orm ANBA08/10/2015

- PhsimuN01/10/2015

dn - AASCL13/10/2015



a 1

1

niemFa Lsir - Ch

k

1

naerzb

n

1

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e

1

eloe Btetgreo - G

en

1

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l

1

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r

1

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1

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1

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0.9

eld - ESBU09/10/2015


y 1

1

llu T

ekel Mtra - Besi

5 10.815.715.61

1

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4 3.618.519.41.51

0 0 3 0 22.02.91.81.81

8.61

6 0.02.2


13Special Report


MB Apex: SilverSilver Leaderboard Q3 2015

00110111

002112

PxpeAn iteullBlaMetecri phascz$/o(tsascreoF

diumalla P)e

k1

anR styalnASCTL FIN

2 misuN3 mro ABNA

4 - BsixatiN

5 beIU - SE

str


94.49%eleo Bettergo - Gemro 92.54%

ahd Dahardrne - B 89.62%

rei Marlnetiasb 88.80%

y96.92%

acru

94.49%92.54%

89.62%

88.80%

005

006

007

008

009

000110

00110111

Q4 Q1 Q2

Q3 Q4

R

hte

AVEMIUDLLAPA

gi(wew eivusnsensoC


tsweoL

S

d)

2015

663

668

600

GEAR

hte

a)

2015 2016Q4 Q1

663

Q2 Q3

666

668

659 659

688

600

708 728

600 600 600

Q4 Q1 Q2

511502


Q42017 2018 2019 2020

740

769 759 791

669

743 761

600 625 625 625 650

Q3 Q4

611602 711702 811802 2

wowllo-tsehgghiighegnaanR)allallliilnaan w((wweewiievsussuneenssenoCCo

2020 2021

791 775

650 650

91190 0202


t

E


- RCCMBR09/10/2015


te

sweoL

tshegiH

dhtegiwetoa llianv%

FORMIUDLLAPA

dastaceroF

/destylaAn

730

TS

h

2015

0

657

700

adha Ddraern

h

635

cta Hdrahci - R


sk

CASE

/de

730 750

2015 2016

%

800 850

%8.0 3.3 %3.7 %5.01 1

657 715715710

850700 800750

750635 680650

Q3Q4 Q2Q1

850 900 900 900 0

720

2017 2018 2019 2020

% %

,1

0.1 9.2

740

900 900 900900850

Q4

5 900

2020 2021

10

900


erzbmmCo13/10/2015


orm ANBA08/10/2015

- PhsimuN01/10/2015

dn - AASCL13/10/2015



a 600

700

niemFa Lsir - Ch

k

620

naerzb

n

651

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e

653

eloe Btetgreo - G

en

620

fniw Sli - Ph

l

680

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r

730

ei Mdrawd Ee -no


600 600600600

800700 750725

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720755

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eld - ESBU09/10/2015


y 715

725

llu T

ekel Mtra - Besi

715 790780750

825725 800750

800 850 850 900 0,1

850

5 90010


14Special Report


MB Apex: PalladiumPalladium Leaderboard Q3 2015

0002

PxpeAn iteullBlaMetecri phascz$/o(tsascreoF

mnuital P)e

k1

anR styalnASCTL FIN

2 misuN3 tanC SICB

4 - DavidtiCi

5 mro ABNA

str


93.83%atetgse Wnoek - Lan Barddtan 89.79%


eleo Bettergo - Gemro 87.26%

y96.36%

acru

93.83%89.79%

88.78%

87.26%

008

000110

002112

004114

006116

008118

Q4 Q1 Q2

Q3 Q4

A

hte

R AVETINUMAPL

gi(wew eivusnsensoC


tsweoL

S

d)

2015

978

1

905

GEA

hte

a)

2015 2016Q4 Q1

978

Q2 Q3

956

9

978 985 1

600,

905

30,1 670,1 801,1 1

888 863 875

Q4 Q1 Q2

511502


Q42017 2018 2019 2020

0 0

1 4

340,1

2

32,1

5

04,1

061,1

950

42,1

0

33,1

0

73,1

0

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100,1 01,1 01,1 ,1

Q3 Q4

611602 711702 811802 2

wowllo-tsehgghiighegnaanR)allallliilnaan w((wweewiievsussuneenssenoCCo

2020 2021

8 064

0

55,1

001 05,1

91190 0202


t

CAS


- RCCMBR09/10/2015


te

sweoL

tshegiH

dhtegiwetoa llianv%

E FORTINUMAPL

dastaceroF

/destylaAn

1

TS

h

2015

3

960

1

adha Ddraern

h

1

cta Hdrahci - R


sk

CAS

/de

0 0

2015 2016

01,

%

51,1 002,1 052,1 1

%1.3 3.8 %1.01 %5.21 1

960 1061,1080,1990

10 052,1002,1051,1

5

01,

0 20,1520,1000,1

Q3

00,

Q4 Q2Q1

0

, , , ,

0

2017 2018 2019 2020

8 0 0 803,1

%

83,1

%

05,1

%

55,1 ,1

3.1 2.1 0.5-

5

0 0 7

73,1

8

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Q4

5

,

2020 2021

008 06,1

007


erzbmmCo13/10/2015


orm ANBA08/10/2015

- PhsimuN01/10/2015

dn - AASCL13/10/2015



a 985

1

niemFa Lsir - Ch

k

990

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n

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e

1

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en

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l

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r

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1

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0

01

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432

eld - ESBU09/10/2015


y 960

1

llu T

ekel Mtra - Besi

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10 002,1051,1001,100,

0 0 0 0 8,105,153,102,151,1

052,1

5 006,108


15Special Report


MB Apex: PlatinumPlatinum Leaderboard Q3 2015

90

leetS inkaRtrsiFenn$/to(tsascreoF

ren OroIng: )ecriphas c

k1

anR styalnAmr ABNA

2 BtalMe

3 tanC SICB

4 UBS

5 misuN

stgniregr Bureasp - Comr

archese Rntiellu

reoa Modnilk - Mean Barddtan

y97.92%

acruccA

97.52%

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16Special Report


Iron Ore Leaderboard Q3 2015

Look out for the Metal Bulletin APEX FULL YEAR 2015 at the end of Januarywhen we’ll see who took the top spot on the MB Apex leaderboard fortheir overall price predictions in 2015.

Access all the recent APEX reports here: www.metalbulletin.com/Apex.html

Documents

2016 to 2021 - Metal Bulletin · 2016 to 2021 Part of the Metal Bulletin ‘2016 Survival Kit‘series ... Apex also provides a weighted average of v o Ç [forecasts. The use of weightings