2016 Strategic Use of Data Seminars

Friday 20 May - Durham

Introduction

John Freeman CBE

NCER Chair

www.ncer.org

Introduction – Housekeeping! Timekeeping – please be prompt! Refreshments Facilities Phones Fire alarms – none expected! Badges

www.ncer.org

Introduction – General Presentations Feedback Queries on the day and after Report on key issues

www.ncer.org

2016 Strategic Use of Data Seminars

Friday 20 May - Durham

The Big Picture

John Freeman CBE

NCER Chair

www.ncer.org

In summary, whatever happens: - local authorities will still have an important role; - local authorities will need to know their schools and academies; - analysis of education data will be a key activity.

www.ncer.org

Assessment and Reporting –

What’s going on?

John Freeman CBE NCER Chair

www.ncer.org

This presentation draws from material produced by John Crowley, Norfolk County Council and Rebekah Edgar, DfE – slides with their logos are used unchanged. Any errors are (of course!) mine.

John Freeman CBE NCER Chair

www.ncer.org

This presentation draws from material from John Crowley, Norfolk County Council and Rebekah Edgar, DfE – slides with their logos are used unchanged. Any errors are (of course) mine.

John Freeman CBE NCER Chair

www.ncer.org

It will be a whistle-stop tour but both the full source presentations will be available.

www.ncer.org

Coverage Baseline check Early Years Foundation Stage Key Stage 1 Teacher Assessment and Testing Key Stage 2 Testing and Teacher Assessment Key Stage 4 Accountability Key Stage 4 New GCSE

www.ncer.org

Early Years Foundation Stage

• Last Autumn – schools could select one of three baseline checks

• Baseline check comparability study concluded that the outcomes of the three checks were not usable for a baseline of progress

• Checks still funded by DfE for next year • 2016 last year of Statutory EYFS Profile • Development of new “School Readiness”

check – no detail

DfE: Purpose of KS1 and 2 statutory assessment

– To hold schools to account for the work they do

with their pupils, determined by DfE.

– To measure both attainment and progress to

demonstrate schools’ effectiveness.

– NOT for use by schools formatively or for

internal assessment or tracking

New Assessments

• Levels have been removed • New Teacher Assessment Bands • Tests at the end of KS1 and KS2 will report in scaled

scores. – The ‘expected standard’ will always be set at 100. – Raw scores in the test will be converted to scaled

scores. – The ‘raw score’ that equates to 100 might be

different each year to maintain this one standard – 100 is roughly equivalent to the old L4b

The context: A New Curriculum

• The statements from the assessment frameworks are drawn from the Programmes of Study

• Emphasis on knowledge rather than skills • Knowledge of annual objectives rather than

progression through a learning continuum • Deeper learning and enrichment rather than

extension and acceleration

Key Stage 1 &2 Statutory Teacher Assessment

• Interim frameworks • Secure-fit model, not best-fit • Need to achieve all of the statements for the

band and any preceding bands within the key stage or pre key stage standards

• The assessments are within the context of everyday teaching and learning – – After input and discussion – With feedback and guidance – For example - dictionaries and word lists are

allowed

Key Stage 1 Tests • Only used to inform Teacher Assessment (TA) • Reading – 2 papers for all pupils • Grammar Punctuation and Spelling – informs

writing • Mathematics

• The test and TA outcomes could be very

different • Teacher Assessment is reported

Key Stage 1 Reading, Writing and Mathematics TA Science TA Below Pre-Key

Stage Standards

P Scales

(unchanged)

HNM Has Not Met the expected

standard

BLW: Below the Pre Key Stage

Pre-Key Stage Standards

PKF: Foundations for the Expected Standard

KS1 Tests In Reading, GPS (writing) and Mathematics

are part of the TA evidence

base

Key Stage Standards

WTS: Working Towards the Expected Standard

EXS: Expected Standard EXS Expected Standard

GDS: Greater Depth in the expected Standard

Shaded = used in accountability measures

Key Stage 1 Teacher Assessment (2016)

Key Stage 2 Tests

• Reading • Grammar Punctuation and Spelling • Mathematics

• The test and TA outcomes could be very

different • Teacher Assessment and test outcome

reported

Key Stage 2 Teacher Assessment (2016) and Testing Reading and Mathematics

Test and TA Writing TA GPS Test Science TA

Below Pre-Key Stage Standards

BLW P Scales (unchanged) BLW

HNM Has Not Met the expected standard

Below the Pre Key Stage Below the Pre Key Stage

Pre-Key stage

Standards

PKF Foundation

PKF Foundation

PKE Early development

PKE Early development

PKG Growing development

PKG Growing development

Key Stage Standards

HNM Has Not Met the expected

standard

NS: Test Scaled

Score<100

WTS Working Towards the

Expected Standard

NS: Test Scaled

Score<100

EXS Expected Standard

AS: Test Scaled Score =>100

EXS Expected Standard AS: Test

Scaled Score =>100

EXS Expected Standard

GDS Greater Depth in the expected Standard

Shaded = used in accountability measures

KS2 Accountability Measures

• % Attaining the Expected Standard 100+ in reading / mathematics and the Expected standard or above in writing

• % Attaining a High Score (decided in Autumn) • Average Scaled Score in reading and mathematics • Value Added in reading, writing and mathematics

• No Expected Progress

Progress: Calculating Value Added Stage 1:

Chris’ results are • KS1 APS = 18.0 • KS2 reading score = 117

• He got 1 point more than the average for those with similar starting points = +1

This is Chris All other pupils nationally with average score at KS1 of 18.0

All these pupils’ KS2 scores are added together and divided by the number of pupils in the group = average (national mean) reading score is 116

Back to Chris

Progress: Calculating Value Added Stage 2: Chris now brings his +1 progress score with him

We put Chris back with his Y6 peers in his school

• The average of all the Y6 progress scores = schools progress score

+1

-2

• We can now compare schools to see where pupils with similar starting points make more or less progress.

• 0 = same progress as pupils nationally

+2 +5

+2

+3 +2

0 +2

+1

-2

+1 -4

+2 0

Floor Standards 2016

KS2 Floor standard – a school will be below the floor standard if both: • less than 65% meet the expected attainment

standard (based on scaled score) and • pupils have not made “sufficient progress”* in

any one of reading, writing or maths *sufficient progress will be based on the Value Added calculations but the threshold figure has yet to be determined

The 10 Thresholds that will determine a ‘Coasting’ School (KS2)

KS2 Results 2014 2015 2016

Attainment - % pupils attaining the expected

standard (in Reading and Writing and Maths)

85% Level 4+ 85% Level 4+ 85% Expected

Standard

Progress – reading 94% making

Expected Progress (national median)

94% making Expected Progress (national median)

“Sufficient Progress” (Value Added)

AND

Progress – writing

96% making Expected Progress (national median)

97% making Expected Progress (national median)

“Sufficient Progress” (Value Added)

AND

Progress – maths 93% making

Expected Progress (national median)

93% making Expected Progress (national median)

“Sufficient Progress” (Value ADDED)

*Schools will be deemed ‘coasting’ if below all 10 indicators

KS4 New Headline Measures • Progress 8: Progress across 8 qualifications • Attainment 8: Attainment across the same 8

qualifications • % achieving a good pass in English and maths • % of pupils achieving the English Baccalaureate

(EBacc) • % of pupils entering the EBacc (subject to

consultation)

KS4 Coasting Schools

• Based on 3 years of results 2014-16 • A school will be ‘coasting’ if it is below all 7 measures at

KS4:

2014 2015 2016 Attainment 60% 5A*-C inc

E&M 60% 5A*-C inc E&M

Progress 8 threshold (yet to be set)

Progress (English)

National median progress (74%)

National median progress (not yet known)

Progress (Maths)

National median progress (67%)

National median progress (not yet known)

Threshold Measures • % Achieving 5A*C including English and Maths • % Achieving the Expected Standard in English

and Mathematics (C in 2016, 5 in 2017) • % Achieving the Ebacc

– English Language or Literature and Mathematics – 2 Sciences – History or Geography – A Language

• Expectation that by 2020 all (90% ?) of pupils should take the Ebacc subjects – consultation outcome being reviewed by DfE

Attainment 8

An attainment 8 score is the sum of: Best English (literature or language) x2 Mathematics x2 3 Ebacc qualifying subjects 3 Other approved qualifications

New Points System for A8 & P8

Because English and Maths are double weighted, attainment 8 is the sum of up to 10 subjects

Progress 8

A progress 8 score of +0.5 means that on average pupils achieved an average of half a grade higher per subject than similar prior attaining pupils.

Moving to Progress 8 as the headline measure

• No meaning or currency for pupils or parents

• Difficult for schools to predict, target or monitor performance towards

• A better measure of school performance • Open to “gaming” – selecting qualifications • Issue around lowering expectations in

schools with low attainment on entry.

New Reformed GCSEs

• More demanding • Linear – exams at the end of two years study • Non-exam assessment removed or reduces • New grading system from 9 – 1

• 4 is equivalent to the bottom of a C grade • 5 (top third of a C +) is the new “good pass”

for threshold measures

New GCSEs 2017: • English language & English

literature • Maths

2018 Ebacc subjects: • Ancient & Modern Languages • Sciences • History & Geography Art and Design, Citizenship studies, Dance, Drama, Food preparation and nutrition, Music, Physical education and Religious studies

2019 Ancient history, Astronomy, Business, Classical civilisation, Design and technology, Economics, Electronics, Engineering, Film studies, Geology, Media studies, Psychology, Sociology, Statistics

Performance Tables

The performance tables sit at the heart of the accountability framework. They focus the debate on standards and provide a reliable and accessible source of comparative information on pupil attainment and progress. The performance tables present this information alongside wider contextual data including Ofsted judgements, absence, workforce and finance data, presenting users with a wider understanding of the setting in which schools are operating.

Statement of Intent and Publication dates

The statement of intent will set out our full plans for the content of the 2016 school and college performance tables. There are a number of changes that will be made to the content this year, as a result of government reforms to the way schools and colleges are held to account for their performance.

We plan to publish the final primary school performance tables by mid-December 2016, the secondary school tables in January 2017 and the 16-18 performance by March 2017.

We also plan to publish key provisional secondary performance measures in autumn 2016.

Primary assessment and accountability - what is different in 2016?

No more ‘levels’ Interim teacher assessment framework which

includes ‘pre-key stage’ categories Introduction of ‘scaled scores’ to report test

results New suite of performance measures

Useful links

www.gov.uk/government/publications/primary-school-accountability

Rochford review re pupils below the standard of national curriculum tests. Interim report is out and introduced pre-key stage standards. Final report due this term: www.gov.uk/government/groups/the-rochford-review

Secondary Accountability Measures for 2016 – what is different and why? • 5A*- C including English & maths will no longer be the headline

measure

• The current system is easy to understand, but contains three perverse incentives:

Wolf Review identified that it encourages schools to enter pupils for poor quality ‘easier to pass’ qualifications;

It can encourage an excessive focus on pupils around the C/D grade boundary, to the detriment of others; and

It causes a narrow concentration on just five subjects, rather than a broad curriculum.

What are we trying to achieve?

New measures designed to hold schools to account for all their pupil’s progress across a broader range of subjects, with a focus on an academic core. Progress 8 gives us:

– a measure of school effectiveness

– a measure that incentivise a broad and balanced curriculum with a strong emphasis on an academic core including English and Maths

– a measure which is sufficiently flexible to reflect pupils' needs

Useful links

Progress 8 guidance: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/progress-8-school-performance-measure

White Paper (chapter 7):

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/educational-excellence-everywhere

There will be five headline measures in 2016 Tables: Progress – the progress students make while at school/college Attainment – how well students attain English and maths – reporting on those who did not achieve a good

pass at Key Stage 4 Retention – the percentage of students who complete their core aim Destinations - what students do when they leave the provider

There will also be a range of ‘additional measures’ sitting below the

headline measures and a wealth of subject/gender/grade information sitting below that.

Results will be allocated to institutions on an annual basis, to bring the tables more in line with 16-19 funding.

Changes to 16-18 performance tables for 2016

You can find more detailed information on how each of the measures are calculated in the 16-19 Accountability Headline Measures Technical Guide https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/16-to-19-accountability-headline-measures-technical-guide

More information

New School Performance Tables website

www.compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk The site went live on 9th March, and is replacing the old performance

tables site that is being taken down this month, after which if you go to the old site you will be redirected.

The site was built over 9 months, with extensive input and testing from over 250 key users along the way including head teachers, MAT and LA leads. It has received a lot of good feedback so far.

The site is in ‘public beta’ phase, which means that DfE want users to use it for real and provide feedback via the links on the site (and at events like today) about what was working well/what wasn’t so that it can continue to be improved.

New data services (emerging thinking)

A number of projects are in their infancy, some of which were alluded to in the recent white paper. They are:

– Looking at ‘life after RAISE’ – Providing a national website for teacher vacancies. – Delivering a ‘parent portal’ to help parents understand the

education system and how they can best support their children through it.

– Proposal for schools to show performance data on their website home pages

Personal comments The new system is complex and will be difficult to explain to professionals and parents, and employers. Worse, there are already planned changes every single year out to at least 2022.

www.ncer.org

But NCER and Angel Solutions are here to help … We’ve had to work out the fine detail (as far as we can) so that the calculations work … so we have produced a series of summary fact sheets for all local authorities.

www.ncer.org